Why did Hoster Tully throw his lot with the Rebels?

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/3/2018 at 3:19 AM, hodorisfaclessman said:

This ^

An alliance was already forming due to the mad kings actions and/or the targ weakness (no more dragons)  

He already had bethrothed his daughter to brandon so had good ties to starks, when the war started he ensured  his prize daughter still married a stark and the 'soiled ' one was married to jon  arryn to seal the alliance tight

The previous betrothal may have given the rebels an opening to negotiate with Hoster, but their ties were obviously not good enough for Hoster to join the rebels because of it. That it took not only Ned fulfilling the marriage to Catelyn, but also Jon Arryn marrying Lysa to bring Hoster onto the side of the rebels, indicates that Hoster was playing hardball with the rebels months into the war, as the royalists searched for Robert at Stoney Sept.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 minute ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The previous betrothal may have given the rebels an opening to negotiate with Hoster, but their ties were obviously not good enough for Hoster to join the rebels because of it. That it took not only Ned fulfilling the marriage to Catelyn, but also Jon Arryn marrying Lysa to bring Hoster onto the side of the rebels, indicates that Hoster was playing hardball with the rebels months into the war, as the royalists searched for Robert at Stoney Sept.

Hoster was present in the Bells though and Ned and Jon married after that battle.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/3/2018 at 3:37 AM, ShadowCat Rivers said:

After Brandon it was his father, next would be his betrothed and father in law to be. Hoster and his family's only chance to live was to overthrow Aerys. So simple.

Not necessarily. Aerys demanded Lord Jon Arryn send him the heads of Lord Robert and Lord Eddard, but there is no indication he issued a death sentence against Lord Arryn in the event he complied. And unlike Lord Arryn, Lord Hoster was not harboring any rebels, and could conceivably demonstrate his loyalty by disassociating himself from House Stark, and aiding the royalists. Not to say Lord Hoster was convinced he would be safe if he did so, but if he thought the rebels were his only chance, he might have joined them months earlier, instead of waiting until Robert was besieged at Stoney Sept.

[Myrish Lace]

Why wouldn't Hoster Tully throw his lot with the rebels?

Westeros is a feudal monarchy, divided in a bunch of autonomous regions each under the banner of LP(equivalent) House. Aerys II was such a disaster that no LP House actually supported him of their own volition. Starks, Arryns, Baratheons rose in rebellion. Lannisters and Greyjoys sat on the fence. Tyrells sat around Strom's End patiently waiting for one side to prevail. Aerys only managed to press the weakest of them, the Martells, by holding their family hostage.

With this in mind... why would anyone in their right mind not support the rebellion? House Targaryen lost the war before it started - they lost the support of powerful noble Houses which control most of the realm. A feudal monarch that loses his bannermen is doomed, and so was Aerys.

What benefit was there for Hoster to drag his feet and cling to the sinking ship? He waited for opportune moment, pressed rebellion for what it was worth and made out like bandit.

[The Commentator]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Even so, Hoster was not willing to join the rebels until they offered the hands of two out of the three rebel leaders for his daughters before the Battle of the Bells. Short of that, it appears he was content to suffer through the remainder of the rule of the Mad King and his heir. 

Hoster wasn't suffering from Aerys' rule.  On the contrary, the realm was prospering.  All the houses benefit when the realm is prospering, though perhaps not equally.  

Jon Arryn basically bought Hoster's cooperation.  Hoster paid him back with the lives of his bannermen and smallfolk who died during the war.  

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Walda said:

Quote? After Duskendale, he seems to be a 'brutal, capricious' shut in. In his youth we hear he was handsome, and capable of charming when he chose. Early in his reign we learn he was 'active and lively' a good dancer, and full of grand schemes that came to nothing.

 

“His Grace was full of grand schemes as well.” (speaks more to his mindset) 

“The Mad King could be savagely cruel, as seen most plainly when he burned those he perceived to be his enemies, but he could also be extravagant, showering men who pleased him with honors, offices, and lands. The lickspittle lords who surrounded Aerys II had gained much and more from the king’s madness”

There are prolly more but this is just the one I specifically remember

[Ylath's Snout]

53 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Hoster wasn't suffering from Aerys' rule.  On the contrary, the realm was prospering.  All the houses benefit when the realm is prospering, though perhaps not equally.  

That prosperity was thanks to Tywin. Prosperity is nice and all but don't mean much when the sovereign is conducting extrajudicial killings of pillars of the current ordered. Aerys just pushed his madness too far.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Hoster wasn't suffering from Aerys' rule.  On the contrary, the realm was prospering.  All the houses benefit when the realm is prospering, though perhaps not equally.  

Jon Arryn basically bought Hoster's cooperation.  Hoster paid him back with the lives of his bannermen and smallfolk who died during the war.  

Hoster's alliance was essentially bought. No question there.

But put yourself in Hoster's shoes. Jon Arryn had been a loyal servant of the crown until Aerys wanted him to execute his former wards for no reason. Just prior to this, he'd executed five of six nobles in Brandon's party as well as at least Rickard Stark (along with unnamed fathers). Aerys probably had the legal justification to execute Brandon. He definitely didn't have the justification to execute Rickard and the fathers. And this is on top of Tywin being humiliated for decades by Aerys and Steffon dying serving the crown. 

Why would you want to remain loyal when you have nothing to gain and his life (and more) to lose? 

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Tour De Force said:

Whoever the Targaryens choose to marry, there will be other houses who will have a problem with it.  The ruling House has to stay above them all to avoid any perception of bias and partiality.  But that is very hard to do without marrying a daughter or son from one of the Free Cities.  The royal family had to marry and siblings were not always available.  But yeah, Aegon V marrying the daughter of a Blackwood could have wounded Tully pride.

Of course there are ill feelings at every royal wedding, but you have to realize that not every great house will have an eligible daughter for the king, so more than likely it would come down to two or maybe three houses in contention. But all of the great houses are alarmed when a lesser house is raised to higher status by marrying into the royal family. This is because 1) the political power that is now distributed among all seven houses is diminished, 2) the queen now has a means of overriding her house's liege's will by appealing directly to the king, and 3) if it happens to one great house, it can happen to another.

When the Targs still had dragons, there wasn't much anyone could do about it. After, however, the great houses have some options, but only if they band together with more than just a promise to support one another.

[The Commentator]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Hoster's alliance was essentially bought. No question there.

But put yourself in Hoster's shoes. Jon Arryn had been a loyal servant of the crown until Aerys wanted him to execute his former wards for no reason. Just prior to this, he'd executed five of six nobles in Brandon's party as well as at least Rickard Stark (along with unnamed fathers). Aerys probably had the legal justification to execute Brandon. He definitely didn't have the justification to execute Rickard and the fathers. And this is on top of Tywin being humiliated for decades by Aerys and Steffon dying serving the crown. 

Why would you want to remain loyal when you have nothing to gain and his life (and more) to lose? 

Was Jon Arryn loyal to the crown?  I wonder.  I have my doubts about that.   

[Failed to De-anon]

Well, even if Hoster could/wanted to cut ties with the Starks and didn't see the advantage of shunting Lysa towards a highborn marriage, and if Tully did put their head in the sand and think that the guy who killed other nobles would stop before stopping at the Tully doorstep, there is the fact that Jeffory Mallister died along side Brandon. That Mallisters are Tully bannermen might have factored into the decision to throw his lot into with the rebels.

[Bael's Bastard]

23 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Hoster was present in the Bells though and Ned and Jon married after that battle.

I don't recall whether the actual ceremony occurred before or after the Battle of the Bells, but Hoster and his forces had to be brought in on the side of the rebels with the marriage pacts.

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Catelyn I
Catelyn rose, threw on a robe, and descended the steps to the darkened solar to stand over her father. A sense of helpless dread filled her. "Father," she said, "Father, I know what you did." She was no longer an innocent bride with a head full of dreams. She was a widow, a traitor, a grieving mother, and wise, wise in the ways of the world. "You made him take her," she whispered. "Lysa was the price Jon Arryn had to pay for the swords and spears of House Tully."
Small wonder her sister's marriage had been so loveless. The Arryns were proud, and prickly of their honor. Lord Jon might wed Lysa to bind the Tullys to the cause of the rebellion, and in hopes of a son, but it would have been hard for him to love a woman who came to his bed soiled and unwilling. He would have been kind, no doubt; dutiful, yes; but Lysa needed warmth.

 

[Bael's Bastard]

21 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Hoster wasn't suffering from Aerys' rule.  On the contrary, the realm was prospering.  All the houses benefit when the realm is prospering, though perhaps not equally.  

Jon Arryn basically bought Hoster's cooperation.  Hoster paid him back with the lives of his bannermen and smallfolk who died during the war.  

I wasn't suggesting that Hoster actually suffered from Aerys's rule, just that he appears to have been content to stick with the Targaryens whatever his feelings, until the rebels made it lucrative enough for him to join them. It isn't surprising that he wasn't in a hurry to test the allegiances of his bannermen after the resistance Lord Arryn and Lord Baratheon faced from their own bannermen in the battles at Gulltown and Summerhall. Plus, he couldn't be certain what Tywin would do with his forces, which were still in the Westerlands. He had hoped to make a marriage pact with him when he was still the Hand, but now he had no agreement with Tywin to keep him from turning his forces against the Riverlands, and Aerys still had Jaime hostage.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/3/2018 at 9:33 AM, Aline de Gavrillac said:

Availability of partners.  If the prince Viserys had been old enough and Aerys was willing to match him with Lysa . . . . . Hoster could have chosen a different side.

I don't think age was an issue, as a betrothal could have been made before Viserys was old enough to consummate. But as Aerys is said to have told Tywin: 'You are my most able servant, Tywin,' the king said, 'but a man does not marry his heir to his servant's daughter.' Aerys isn't the sort to bribe those who are already sworn to serve him to do their duty. If he thought House Tully was wavering in their loyalty, he seems more likely to threaten them than to give them incentive to stick with him.

[Bael's Bastard]

19 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Was Jon Arryn loyal to the crown?  I wonder.  I have my doubts about that.   

I don't think we have reason to think he wasn't, at least until Aerys demanded that Jon behead Lord Robert and Lord Eddard, young men who had become like sons to him over the last decade, and send their heads to him. 

[Bael's Bastard]

On 6/3/2018 at 2:20 PM, John Suburbs said:

I think the Tullys and other great houses were plotting against the Iron Throne for some time. I'm sure none of them were pleased with the fact that the ruling Targs usually wed within their own house, but even when they did stray it was almost always to someone's bannerman:

Maegor to a Hightower, a Harroway, a Westerling and a Costayne

Viserys I to a Hightower (but also an Arryn, the exception that proves the rule)

Viserys II to a Rogare

Aerys I to a Penrose

Maekar to a Dayne

And no one north or the marches could have been pleased with Dareon II's marriage to Mariah Martell.

All of this has the affect of elevating lesser houses above their lieges. So when Aegon V married Betha Blackwood, it probably stuck in the craw of the previous Lord Tully and probably led to talk about uniting their houses through marriage -- something that the next generation of lords would actually attempt as dissatisfaction with the ruling order started to erode.

I don't think any of the great houses were truly plotting against House Targaryen, least of all House Tully. And IMO if there was a plot against King Aerys himself, it was between his son/heir Prince Rhaegar Targaryen and his Hand Lord Tywin Lannister.

In context, when Lord Hoster Tully went to King's Landing to seal the deal to wed his daughter Lysa to Tywin's son/heir Jaime Lannister, Tywin was still the Hand of the King, and according to Jaime, he was still either hoping for Elia to die so he could wed his beloved daughter Cersei to Rhaegar, or to settle for wedding her to Prince Viserys. In other words, Hoster went to King's Landing to seal a marriage agreement with a man who had been a loyal servant of the Targaryens for twenty years, and was still trying to marry with the Targaryens up to the day Aerys took his son/heir Jaime from him by naming him to the KG.

Far from plotting against House Targaryen, Lord Hoster and Lord Rickard Stark appear to me to have had ambitions to see their descendants marry with the Targaryens, and eventually to have Targaryen descendants of their own on the Iron Throne.

Lord Tywin was the Hand of the King, one of Aerys's oldest friends, and in the midst of trying to wed his daughter to a Targaryen prince. No matter how much the relationship between Aerys and Tywin had deteriorated, politically, Lord Hoster could hardly have married in with a family closer ties to House Targaryen. Tywin was credited by many with making Aerys's reign as prosperous as it was. And if Tywin succeeded in marrying Cersei to a Targaryen prince, the marriage ties with him would be all the more beneficial to House Tully.

Lord Robert Baratheon was the son of Steffon Baratheon, Aerys's cousin, his other oldest friend, the one whom Aerys had entrusted to find a bride for Prince Rhaegar, and whose relationship with the king does not appear to have ever turned sour. Lord Rickard could hardly have married in with a family closer to House Targaryen. Steffon had a Targaryen mother, and Robert a Targaryen grandmother. Had Steffon had a daughter, she would have been a likely match for Rhaegar. As it is, the descendants of Robert and Lyanna would have had a good chance at royal marriages. Robert was still a loyal servant of House Targaryen at Harrenhal, when Lord Rickard had long betrothed Lyanna to him, and when Rhaegar's crowning Lyanna of QOLAB is said to have turned Robert against Rhaegar, but not necessarily House Targaryen.

I think if we take an honest look at things in context, there was no plot against House Targaryen months or years in the making. In fact, the bonds at the heart of the rebellion were the father/son bonds between Jon Arryn and Robert/Ned, and the brother/brother bonds formed between Robert and Ned for a decade before Aerys calling for Jon to behead Robert and Ned. These were not marriage or blood ties, and there is no reason to believe Jon, Rickard, or Steffon had any anti-Targaryen feelings or motivations when the fosterings were arranged way back in 271.

[Myrish Lace]

21 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Was Jon Arryn loyal to the crown?  I wonder.  I have my doubts about that.   

Jon Arryn was loyal to the crown until the last possible moment. Even after the crown repeatedly and blatantly oversteps its bounds - Stark daughter, Stark heir, Lord Stark himself - Jon Arryn doesn't raise his banners (even as a defensive measure) or revolt. It's only when the crown starts picking on him - that's when Jon responds in kind.

For all the popularity of Southron Ambitions theory among the fans, no alleged conspirator - including Jon - behaves like there is any alliance or conspiracy during Robert's Rebellion.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 minute ago, Myrish Lace said:

Jon Arryn was loyal to the crown until the last possible moment. Even after the crown repeatedly and blatantly oversteps its bounds - Stark daughter, Stark heir, Lord Stark himself - Jon Arryn doesn't raise his banners (even as a defensive measure) or revolt. It's only when the crown starts picking on him - that's when Jon responds in kind.

He didn't call the banners even after his heir had been killed by Aerys. 

I think southron ambitions is a myth and that Barbrey Dustin will believe what she wants to believe to make herself feel better about being passed over for Catelyn.

To me and until the next books are out, the marriage alliances seem like something that fell into Rickard's lap. I think in his case, southron ambitions are a red herring as far as what he was really up to. As far as Robert goes, the proposal for Lyanna came from him, not from Rickard. And given the outside alliances that Hoster Tully was making, I think there's a good chance he was the one who approached Rickard on marrying Cat to Brandon.

It is said over and over again that Hoster did not trust old Walder Frey. Walder Frey married himself and his brood of children into houses from the riverlands, the Reach, the Stormlands, the Vale and he was closer to Lannister than he was to his own liege lord. That may be the whole reason Hoster thought it would be a good idea to have Lysa and Jaime married. Hoster looked to marry his brother to a Redwyne, refused to marry Catelyn or Lysa to a Brax (but Walder Frey sure did marry his daughter to one), had Catelyn betrothed to Brandon, was looking to marry Lysa to Jaime, joined the rebellion after he married Cat off to Ned and his problem child to Jon Arryn. And even after the wars were done and there was peace in the land, he looked to marry Edmure to Arianne Martell. 

I find Rickard and Maester Walys get a really bad rep over what Barbrey Dustin said. 

[Myrish Lace]

14 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

He didn't call the banners even after his heir had been killed by Aerys. 

Shame on me, how could I forget that? Jon's sinister conspirator creed drops even lower.

15 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I think southron ambitions is a myth and that Barbrey Dustin will believe what she wants to believe to make herself feel better about being passed over for Catelyn.

A character didn't get a desirable match:

Olenna Tyrell: I didn't want it anyway.

Walder Frey: They are laughing at me!

Barbrey Dustin: THERE WAS A CONTINENT-WIDE CONSPIRACY THAT THWARTED ME. NO! THERE WERE TWO CONTINENT-WIDE CONSPIRACIES THAT THWARTED ME!!!

[Dorian Martell's son]

On 6/2/2018 at 1:51 PM, Angel Eyes said:

So after the execution of Rickard and Brandon Stark, why did Hoster Tully decide to support the Rebels by marrying his daughters to Lord Eddard Stark and Lord Jon Arryn? Why not cut his losses after Brandon’s death and disassociate himself from House Stark in particular by siding with the Targaryens? Was it southron agreements with Rickard Stark? Availability of partners?

if the king was cray-cray enough to brutally murder the lord paramount of the north and his heir and demand the head of his second heir, There is no guarantee that Hoster would not meet the same fate due to some other incident later on.