Northern Lords declaring for Stannis then refusing to march south

[Stormking902]

14 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

i think trying to protect the wall from WW and a massive zombie army  with a few thousand Northmen is a bigger risk then taking the Iron Throne and returning to the Wall with the full might of Westeros at his back . If it's all about risk then why is he taking a massive risk in attacking Roose Botlon instead of just staying and protecting the wall?

I think you underestimate how much the Northmen want revenge against the Freys , every House lost men at the Red Wedding and the Freys killed their King and Ned Stark's widow so the same Northmen who are braving freezing temperatures and massive snowfall to save Ned's daughter are not going to stop at Winterfell.

The Boltons are Stannis enemy and they stand in the way of him uniting ALL of the North under his banner so yes he must first attack Roose, also keep in mind the castles Stannis has taken up on the Wall are designed to only defend from the North so if Roose marches on Stannis at the wall his men would be slaughtered. Roose NEEDS WF its KEY to his sucess, and how would Stannis even with Northern soldiers defeat the Tyrells and Lannisters? Or how is he marching his army all around Westeros in the dead of winter? He would have to be Hosteen Frey to try such a thing. 

 

It would take almost a year to march to KL and back let alone win a war against two great houses and gather an army ETC, what does Stannis just hope the WW stay put for another two years while he accomplishes his task in the South? 

[Tagganaro]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

so the argument from many on this thread is that Stannis will not have enough men to go South and try to win the Iron Throne but at the same time he will have enough men to stop an army of WW and zombie's. Will 10,000 (if that ) Northmen be enough to stop the WW army? 

Well, if Stannis had enough men to stop the WW army ASOIAF would have a pretty easy and boring ending .  Again, I think it's debatable what Stannis really intends to do immediately after the Battle of Ice, but going south is a long campaign in light of the looming WW invasion.  Perhaps if Stannis can get his sellswords pretty quickly he can strike south, but again, I just don't see the Northmen supporting him going south when they have all their issues to deal with.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

@Tagganaro

The clansmen look for a good way to die. If they don't die in the village or at Winterfell, they might be willing to die in any other noble cause. Many of those men do not want to return back to their homes, just as those Northmen who accompanied both Roderick Dustin and Cregan Stark down south during the Dance did not want to return back home to eat the scarce winter provisions of their families.

Putting Stannis on the Iron Throne would be as noble a cause as fighting for Rhaenyra or Aegon III.

I don't think Stannis will insist that they follow him in such a campaign because I think he doesn't want to fight such a campaign right now, but I'm pretty sure they would follow him if he did command it.

It is a strange idea that the clansmen are not 'Stannis' men' now. He came to them and visited them in their keeps and homes, the first king to do so since, well, the Conquest, and they are his men now. And one can assume that the entire North is going to follow suit if Stannis takes Winterfell. He'll have done what the Northmen themselves were too craven or too incompetent to do - putting down the Boltons.

My issue with this is that I don't think it's a "good way to die" and I think it's an overstatement to simplify the clansmen down to suicidal martyrs who have no intention of returning home.  While I do think the clansmen will support Stannis to a certain end I think conversely that it's a strange idea that they are suddenly Stannis loyalists now because he wined and dined them.  They are still Northmen who identify with the north and in my opinion they are acting as Northmen now by supporting Stannis- they would no longer be doing so if they were to leave south to put a Stormlander on the Iron Throne with no Stark support.

And I don't think it's a safe assumption at all that if Stannis takes Winterfell, the North is suddenly laying down for Stannis.  Mileage may vary regarding how much stock you put into the Grand Northern Conspiracy (I for one can't see how this idea can be entirely discounted when you have so many hints at it), but even putting that aside the north certainly has an independence streak and I don't think it will be straight-forward or easy for Stannis to now demand loyalty from them now that the cat's out of the bag.  

[Blackfish Tully]

15 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

Well, if Stannis had enough men to stop the WW army ASOIAF would have a pretty easy and boring ending .  Again, I think it's debatable what Stannis really intends to do immediately after the Battle of Ice, but going south is a long campaign in light of the looming WW invasion.  Perhaps if Stannis can get his sellswords pretty quickly he can strike south, but again, I just don't see the Northmen supporting him going south when they have all their issues to deal with.

My issue with this is that I don't think it's a "good way to die" and I think it's an overstatement to simplify the clansmen down to suicidal martyrs who have no intention of returning home.  While I do think the clansmen will support Stannis to a certain end I think conversely that it's a strange idea that they are suddenly Stannis loyalists now because he wined and dined them.  They are still Northmen who identify with the north and in my opinion they are acting as Northmen now by supporting Stannis- they would no longer be doing so if they were to leave south to put a Stormlander on the Iron Throne with no Stark support.

 

The big question is have they bent the knee to Stanis and declared for  him as their king ? I don't remember this as being addressed or not but if they did or if they are planning to after he defeats Bolton then they have no choice but to do as their king commands (their honor and duty would force them to)  and if he wants to go south then they will go south . We know that Manderly will bend the knee if Davos returns Rickon Stark and i would think that Glover and Mormount would do as well so they all will do whatever their king wants and if going south is what he wants then that's what they will do . That's what happens when you bend the knee to a King . The fact that the Iron Throne will go through the Freys will make it an easier pill to swallow . 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Tagganaro said:

My issue with this is that I don't think it's a "good way to die" and I think it's an overstatement to simplify the clansmen down to suicidal martyrs who have no intention of returning home. 

 

i don't think it's a good way to die either but then again i'm not some prickly about my honor Northman who has had kin and King murdered by the Freys and would rather die in battle then die of starvation or cold . We are not talking about normal , rational men here . 

 

Ser Corliss Penny gave the clan chief an incredulous look. "Do you want to die, Wull?"

That seemed to amuse the northman. "I want to live forever in a land where summer lasts a thousand years. I want a castle in the clouds where I can look down over the world. I want to be six-and-twenty again. When I was six-and-twenty I could fight all day and fuck all night. What men want does not matter.

"Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for revenge for Ned's son  than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Frey blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Frey skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue."

 

[Blackfish Tully]

59 minutes ago, Stormking902 said:

The Boltons are Stannis enemy and they stand in the way of him uniting ALL of the North under his banner so yes he must first attack Roose, also keep in mind the castles Stannis has taken up on the Wall are designed to only defend from the North so if Roose marches on Stannis at the wall his men would be slaughtered. Roose NEEDS WF its KEY to his sucess, and how would Stannis even with Northern soldiers defeat the Tyrells and Lannisters? Or how is he marching his army all around Westeros in the dead of winter? He would have to be Hosteen Frey to try such a thing. 

 

He would think that he can pick up the Riverlords and the Northmen who are left in the Riverlands and would assume (wrongly probably )that he can convince the Vale Lords  to join him not to mention the fact that he knows that the Martells are no fans of either Lannister or Tyrell . Also he would have heard or will hear about the  Iron Born and  Golden Company attacking the Reach and Stormlands so the Lannister /Tyrell alliance is not as scary as it used to be especially with Kevan and Tywin dead . The Lannister took massive losses in the war and the Tyrells are scrambling to defend their own lands so the timing could not be better for Stannis. 

 

1 hour ago, Stormking902 said:

 

 

It would take almost a year to march to KL and back let alone win a war against two great houses and gather an army ETC, what does Stannis just hope the WW stay put for another two years while he accomplishes his task in the South? 

The WW have stayed put for thousands of years so why not a few more? 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎9‎/‎6‎/‎2018 at 7:43 AM, Ellard Stark said:

The Battle in the Ice is perhaps one the best written plot setup we have to look forward to. And I eagerly cannot wait. But with all the possibilities and variables on the table, but in the end, With no supernatural events occurring(dragons, ice zombies, ned's stark head being reattached, etc), the Northerners will look at Stannis and be like "u cray its 20 foot blizzard out here and we can't see 3 foot front of us and you want us to march south all the way to KL with you"?

I would think that is why the northmen would follow Stannis, to get away from the northern winter. I suspect this was a time-honored tradition in the north pre-Conquest: winter would come and northmen would head south to pillage and plunder in the warmer climes. I suspect this is the real meaning of "Winter is Coming" -- not just a statement of fact, but a warning to the southron kingdoms.

[Blackfish Tully]

On 9/6/2018 at 7:43 AM, Ellard Stark said:

, the Northerners will look at Stannis and be like "u cray its 20 foot blizzard out here and we can't see 3 foot front of us and you want us to march south all the way to KL with you"?

The cold and snow don't seem to be bothering the Northmen and the weather in the Riverlands and Kings Landing will probably seem like a day at the beach for these guys . 

Later, when Ser Corliss Penny wondered aloud whether an entire army had ever frozen to death in a winter storm, the wolves laughed. "This is no winter," declared Big Bucket Wull. "Up in the hills we say that autumn kisses you, but winter fucks you hard. This is only autumn's kiss."

The cold count, Asha heard it named. The baggage train suffered the worst: dead horses, lost men, wayns overturned and broken. "The horses founder in the snow," Justin Massey told the king. "Men wander off or just sit down to die."

The northmen fared much better, with their garrons and their bear-paws. Black Donnel Flint and his half-brother Artos only lost one man between them. The Liddles, the Wulls, and the Norreys lost none at all. One of Morgan Liddle's mules had gone astray, but he seemed to think the Flints had stolen him.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

My issue with this is that I don't think it's a "good way to die" and I think it's an overstatement to simplify the clansmen down to suicidal martyrs who have no intention of returning home.  While I do think the clansmen will support Stannis to a certain end I think conversely that it's a strange idea that they are suddenly Stannis loyalists now because he wined and dined them.  They are still Northmen who identify with the north and in my opinion they are acting as Northmen now by supporting Stannis- they would no longer be doing so if they were to leave south to put a Stormlander on the Iron Throne with no Stark support.

That is not how feudal relations work, and you should be aware of that. Those men all did do Stannis homage as their king. They are not sellswords he pays or men who agreed to ride with him only to a certain point. He is the one who united them, not some Northern lord. With no outsider to lead them - and a king at that - they would have never come out of their mountains in the first place. Deepwood fell a long time ago. Why didn't they move to take it back months ago if they were able and willing to do something like that all by themselves?

They are not 'martyrs', either. They are warriors seeking death in battle. Men who know they will (or should) die in winter, anyway, so they can just as well seek a glorious death in battle. That's the way you want to go in this culture. The Northmen have a very pragmatic approach to that kind of thing - and they would not seek such ends if winter wasn't as bad as it is in the North.

And keep in mind that the North bled for 'King Robb's' domains in the Riverlands. The 'independence' of the North was never in any immediate danger from the Iron Throne.

2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

And I don't think it's a safe assumption at all that if Stannis takes Winterfell, the North is suddenly laying down for Stannis.  Mileage may vary regarding how much stock you put into the Grand Northern Conspiracy (I for one can't see how this idea can be entirely discounted when you have so many hints at it), but even putting that aside the north certainly has an independence streak and I don't think it will be straight-forward or easy for Stannis to now demand loyalty from them now that the cat's out of the bag.  

There is no reason to take the Grand Northern Conspiracy thing seriously. That is as much a silly conspiracy theory as the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory (or the Great Unified Conspiracy Theory from the days before ASoS came out). Make no mistake, Lord Wyman and Robett Glover do conspire to do certain things, and we don't have the full picture of that at this point. And chances are about zero that Hother Umber and his men stay true to Roose/Ramsay the moment things look bad for them.

But the idea that pretty much every Northern lord (including Barbrey Dustin!) is plotting against the Boltons (and to various degrees also against Stannis) really doesn't make any sense unless you yourself are already living in conspiracy fantasy land.

The biggest issue with that kind of a far-flung conspiracy theory is that it really makes no sense why the Northmen do not just put down Roose and his monstrous son. That wouldn't be that hard if pretty much the entire North wanted to do it.

The other point is that people really try to pull everything together in such a grand theory - Alysane Mormont, the clansmen, the Manderlys and Glover, Galbart and Maege and Howland Reed and Robb's last will, Lady Dustin. That is simply too much. 

Not to mention that there is really no need for a such a grand conspiracy on the plot level. If the Boltons fail/make mistakes, the Northmen will turn against them. There is no question about that. They don't have to conspire to do that.

And Stannis simply acts in a manner that should win him the allegiance and support of the Northmen. He came and defended the Wall while their own 'king' ran away and abandoned the North to its enemies, allowing the cream of the North to die in the Riverlands. Stannis also comes to restore order in the North - he helps people who didn't lift so much as a finger to help him when he was in need.

The message one would take away from the story if Stannis were actually rejected by a majority of the Northmen should he take Winterfell is that it is actually the wrong thing - and a pointless thing at that - to try to win the loyalty and love of your people by helping them. And I don't think George is going to send that message.

Stannis will fail and die in the end, but he won't fail because the Northmen reject him or don't declare for him (assuming he survives Winterfell, of course).

If we are going to get the 'Snow King' there is time for that farther down the road after Stannis is dead. Jon Snow could very well become the heir of Stannis in all but name. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Stannis actually betrothed Shireen to Jon if the latter somehow *got out of his vows* in the wake of his death and resurrection. In fact, such a scenario could make the eventual Shireen sacrifice even more interesting...

Not to mention that technically Rickon should be dead and gone by such a time considering that Jon would likely never try to take his brother's place. And there is no way that we are going to get a scenario where Jon becomes king and nobody knows that Rickon supposedly lives on Skagos. Too many important Northmen know that already.

[Tagganaro]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not how feudal relations work, and you should be aware of that. Those men all did do Stannis homage as their king. They are not sellswords he pays or men who agreed to ride with him only to a certain point. He is the one who united them, not some Northern lord. With no outsider to lead them - and a king at that - they would have never come out of their mountains in the first place. Deepwood fell a long time ago. Why didn't they move to take it back months ago if they were able and willing to do something like that all by themselves?

Forgive me if I'm wrong on the bolded, but we have absolutely no idea whether these men did "homage" to Stannis and whether they bowed down to him as their king.  All we know is that he went to ask for their support in taking the North back and that they have agreed to help him.  Other than a few select quotes which indicate that these men are either focused on "saving Ned's little girl" or "getting revenge for Ned's son" we have no idea how far their loyalty runs.  We can guess they didn't move to take back Deepwood months ago because they knew it was a futile mission without far more men which Stannis is providing.

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They are not 'martyrs', either. They are warriors seeking death in battle. Men who know they will (or should) die in winter, anyway, so they can just as well seek a glorious death in battle. That's the way you want to go in this culture. The Northmen have a very pragmatic approach to that kind of thing - and they would not seek such ends if winter wasn't as bad as it is in the North.

So they have a pragmatic approach?  Doesn't that mean they want their deaths to mean something or help along some agenda?

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There is no reason to take the Grand Northern Conspiracy thing seriously. That is as much a silly conspiracy theory as the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy Theory (or the Great Unified Conspiracy Theory from the days before ASoS came out). Make no mistake, Lord Wyman and Robett Glover do conspire to do certain things, and we don't have the full picture of that at this point. And chances are about zero that Hother Umber and his men stay true to Roose/Ramsay the moment things look bad for them.

But the idea that pretty much every Northern lord (including Barbrey Dustin!) is plotting against the Boltons (and to various degrees also against Stannis) really doesn't make any sense unless you yourself are already living in conspiracy fantasy land.

 

This isn't the subject of the thread but this is crazy to say IMO.  There are a TON of clues for this kind of Grand Northern Conspiracy which is why so many people subscribe to it.  Barbrey is explicitly written as a very complicated character whose allegiance to the Boltons should be questioned- I have no idea why you find that so absurd to think she may be in on some kind of plotting.

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The biggest issue with that kind of a far-flung conspiracy theory is that it really makes no sense why the Northmen do not just put down Roose and his monstrous son. That wouldn't be that hard if pretty much the entire North wanted to do it.

yes it would be very hard to put Roose and co. down.  The Northmen do not have a ton of men to begin with and that doesn't even account for hostages of the Freys and other complications that were present in the past but are now disappearing.  

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The other point is that people really try to pull everything together in such a grand theory - Alysane Mormont, the clansmen, the Manderlys and Glover, Galbart and Maege and Howland Reed and Robb's last will, Lady Dustin. That is simply too much. 

That's fine- you can subscribe to elements of the GNC without subscribing to a whole unified plotting conspiracy.  It is very possible each of the Lords are involved in different plots if there is not one unified one.  

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And Stannis simply acts in a manner that should win him the allegiance and support of the Northmen. He came and defended the Wall while their own 'king' ran away and abandoned the North to its enemies, allowing the cream of the North to die in the Riverlands. Stannis also comes to restore order in the North - he helps people who didn't lift so much as a finger to help him when he was in need.

He also comes to burn heart trees, demand homage in fighting a war the Northmen have no interest in fighting, and generally only showed up in the North as a matter of last resort.  People are aware of this. 

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The message one would take away from the story if Stannis were actually rejected by a majority of the Northmen should he take Winterfell is that it is actually the wrong thing - and a pointless thing at that - to try to win the loyalty and love of your people by helping them. And I don't think George is going to send that message.

I would not take the message at all.  These Northmen are not "Stannis's people" and they never were.  He doesn't even purport to be acting for their benefit out of the kindness of his heart and has never been able to inspire loyalty in his followers- thus he's an incredibly flawed (and I might add compelling for that reason) leader.  

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Tagganaro said:

Forgive me if I'm wrong on the bolded, but we have absolutely no idea whether these men did "homage" to Stannis and whether they bowed down to him as their king.  All we know is that he went to ask for their support in taking the North back and that they have agreed to help him.  Other than a few select quotes which indicate that these men are either focused on "saving Ned's little girl" or "getting revenge for Ned's son" we have no idea how far their loyalty runs.  We can guess they didn't move to take back Deepwood months ago because they knew it was a futile mission without far more men which Stannis is providing.

This is Stannis Baratheon we are talking about. This man wouldn't have taken men in his army who put forth conditions like 'We are going to help you to free Deepwood and Winterfell, but you, who lay claim to the Iron Throne of Westeros, are neither our liege nor our king.'

If they had done that, they wouldn't have accompanied Stannis. Nor would he have suffered such men in his army. He would have rather tried to put them down where they lived, one keep at a time.

You also do see how Stannis treats and interacts with his own men. The clansmen would not be better treated, considering they are not even proper lords.

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So they have a pragmatic approach?  Doesn't that mean they want their deaths to mean something or help along some agenda?

What 'agenda' should that be? The majority of the North was never on board with that 'independence agenda'. That was the brainchild of Jon Umber, who isn't the sharpest knife in the box. There are very few Northmen at Riverrun when Robb is proclaimed king.

The Northmen fought and died for Rhaenyra just because Jacaerys Velaryon visited White Harbor and Winterfell, and because Rhaenyra later wrote Cregan Stark letters. Stannis is with them right now, in an hour of dire need. Why shouldn't they die for him?

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This isn't the subject of the thread but this is crazy to say IMO.  There are a TON of clues for this kind of Grand Northern Conspiracy which is why so many people subscribe to it.  Barbrey is explicitly written as a very complicated character whose allegiance to the Boltons should be questioned- I have no idea why you find that so absurd to think she may be in on some kind of plotting.

Because this would mean Roose Bolton doesn't actually have so much as one ally in the North. That would be ridiculous. Barbrey controls both Barrowton and the Rills. If she was truly in camp Stark she could have found ways to put both Ramsay and Roose down. They were her guests for a considerable time, and as such under her power. It is not that difficult to arrange something like the Red Wedding, no?

Overall, I think people subscribe to many such overcomplicated theories for two reasons:

To pass the time, and to imagine a scenario one would like to read about in the next book.

One could make sociological studies about the way fans start to run amok in their imagination after all the real clues and hints have discussed to death.

Think back about all the things people saw when they had only ASoS or only AFfC.

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yes it would be very hard to put Roose and co. down.  The Northmen do not have a ton of men to begin with and that doesn't even account for hostages of the Freys and other complications that were present in the past but are now disappearing.

Deepwood could have been retaken easily, especially while Asha was away. Nobody laid claim to ruined Winterfell, either. Nobody moved against Torrhen's Square or Moat Cailin until Roose was coming back.

The hostages didn't stop Mors Umber when he decided to join Stannis, so that's no big deal, apparently. 

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That's fine- you can subscribe to elements of the GNC without subscribing to a whole unified plotting conspiracy.  It is very possible each of the Lords are involved in different plots if there is not one unified one.  

Or one just wishes they were involved in such plots. It is very clear they would all like to see the Boltons and Freys dead.

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He also comes to burn heart trees, demand homage in fighting a war the Northmen have no interest in fighting, and generally only showed up in the North as a matter of last resort.  People are aware of this. 

He did not come to burn heart trees nor has he burned a single heart tree in the North. People were not falling over themselves to declare for Stannis, true, but we are talking about him after he has retaken Winterfell. The picture Jon paints of the Northmen is that they will accept Stannis if he proves his mettle. And he is doing that right now. One sees this effect after he has freed Deepwood. We don't need a conspiracy to explain why men searched him out and joined him. 

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I would not take the message at all.  These Northmen are not "Stannis's people" and they never were.  He doesn't even purport to be acting for their benefit out of the kindness of his heart and has never been able to inspire loyalty in his followers- thus he's an incredibly flawed (and I might add compelling for that reason) leader.  

Stannis is a Baratheon. His people are the people of the Seven Kingdoms, from Dorne to the Wall.

Stannis did save the Northmen's asses from the Mance and his wildlings. That is just a fact and every honest person in the North will have to admit that this is true. And character-wise Stannis seem to be the kind of person the Northmen would actually easily enough accept as king. He is blunt, hard, and means business. In a sense he is even 'starkier' than all the living Starks - if one sees the true Starks in the old Kings of Winter, and not in Ned's children who are pretty soft (Arya excluded, of course).

If there is a place where Stannis could actually hope to be loved it would be the North.

[TheThreeEyedCow]

Nobody should be marching an army anywhere. We see first-hand how difficult it is for Stannis and his army to March from Deepwood to the Crofters village. 

Besides, as LV has vigorously pointed out, Stannis has no immediate plans in the South. He's unifying the North so he can concentrate on the LN. He's thinking that his efforts here will earn him the Crown. Stannis may have proven to be more flexible than the likes of Noye have suggested, but he is in no way fickle, or uncertain. I remember in one of the last chapters of aDwD, Asha Greyjoy observes him and thinks to herself that he is a man who will not be swayed from his task. He'd look like a right fool if he changed his entire campaign strategy. Plus, Mel and his wife/queen and daughter are still there, waiting to be housed. 

If Stannis attempted to march South, it wouldn't go well. Now, I love the Mannis, but he'd probably get as far as the twins before things started to go awry. Besides, LS is down there. Lannisters too. In some f*cked up way, it's better odds to stay where he is.  

[Lord Varys]

From Stannis' point of view after a victory at Winterfell and the destruction of the Boltons and their allies the next step wouldn't be some stupid campaign but rather to write a letter and let the news about his victory sink in. After the Blackwater Stannis was beaten, after Castle Black he was back in the game on a low level, but if he wins Winterfell he'll be really back.

And this could help him win new allies.

The next step would then not be start another round of silly fighting but rather try to convince people who do consider siding with Stannis or at least listen to him about the true enemy.

I mean, you guys hear me complaining about nobody doing this the entire time, but after Winterfell the time would be come to try to get everybody who is willing to listen on board in the campaign against the Others. Because that's going to be a moment when the Others should actually start to become a more pressing concern.

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

From Stannis' point of view after a victory at Winterfell and the destruction of the Boltons and their allies the next step wouldn't be some stupid campaign but rather to write a letter and let the news about his victory sink in. After the Blackwater Stannis was beaten, after Castle Black he was back in the game on a low level, but if he wins Winterfell he'll be really back.

And this could help him win new allies.

The next step would then not be start another round of silly fighting but rather try to convince people who do consider siding with Stannis or at least listen to him about the true enemy.

I mean, you guys hear me complaining about nobody doing this the entire time, but after Winterfell the time would be come to try to get everybody who is willing to listen on board in the campaign against the Others. Because that's going to be a moment when the Others should actually start to become a more pressing concern.

you could be right but it may work out better for him to make his call to arms at Riverrun instead of Winterfell , Defeating the Freys and restoring the Tullys would get the Riverlands on his side and give him more prestige and he would be close enough to the Vale and Reach that any Lords that want to hear what he has to say could join him there , he would  have an impossible time convincing any Southern Lord to head up north in winter unless he can convince them in person about the threat of the WW , nobody will be convinced by any letter .

[Ellard Stark]

Sorry to interrupt you all but Grandpa Winter has arrived. Which makes jumping off of Castles pretty much fun this time of the year. Kinda sucks for Brandon to missing out all this fun. He could still use Sansa to break his fall.

 

Stannis wants the only real fighting men that are left, and thats the wildlings. We can throw numbers around all day but there's at least enough to replenish a regular Kingdom's fighting force and they can excel at this weather while others cannot. No more marching formations, its going to be an all out brawl fest from here on out.

 

Sooo Back to the Boltons, Roose is the true sociopath using his toy Ramsay to pull another backstabbing,(surprised?) and kill off the Freys to either A) Unite the North for the RW or B ) Have the Freys send more forces up North to finish off the remaining Northern forces, so all in all, he gets to keep his main loyal Bolton Force unharmed.

 

Its Only a matter of time to ditch the poorly hastily superglued Winterfell and head back to the strongly fortified Dreadfort with his loyal men untouched.

 

You can quote me later when this happens in TWoW

[Rufus Snow]

1 hour ago, Blackfish Tully said:

restoring the Tullys would get the Riverlands on his side and give him more prestige

Probably would, if he could get Edmure out of Casterly Rock

[Bernie Mac]

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

the North was dealing with disaster after disaster ,

It still is, the situation has not changed if anything with winter here, thousands of wildlings South of the Wall, split factions and an undead army advancing the situation has escalated. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Iron Born invasion ,

Which happened because they sent too many men South, they are hardly going to repeat that. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

thousands of Northern soldiers being killed at the Red Wediing ,

Killed by thousands of North men who are now back in the North. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

the rest of the Starks being wiped out or missing ,

Right and what happened when Bran and Rickon were murdered? The North raised less than 2k to avenge them. 

 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Bolton taking over so they had no time to get anything organized.

There was plenty of time before that, they did very little. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Most of the Northmen understand that this will be there last winter and if Stannis defeats Bolton when would they have a better chance then now to get revenge on the Freys ?

You are wildly speculating here. None of the Northmen with Stannis have mentioned anything of the sort. You are confusing what you want to happen with the characters in the book. 

 

The time to make Stannis agree to a Twins attack is before they have taken Winterfell, not after the fact. There is still the matter of the Dreadfort, leaving the North exposed would be beyond idiotic after what recently happened. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

They have one of the best military leaders in Westeros in Stannis and most of the Northen Houses will be together in Winterfell plus Stannis's men so if they do not use that opportunity to attack the Freys when will they have another one ? 

The North has forever to get revenge on the Freys, there is no timetable on that. Defending the Wall __ not so much.

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

When has Stannis ever worried about the odds ?

 

At the start of his campaign when he realized that 5k was not enough, that he needed his brother's army and again at the Wall when Jon tells him how unlikely it would be for him to take the Dreadfort,. 

Stannis is not an idiot, he is aware about odds though this is rather moot as there has been zero suggestion from the character that he plans on marching to the Twins after Winterfell.  

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

he's attacking Winterfell (a castle he cannot take )

of course he can take it, it was recently destroyed and he was unaware of how many men Roose had on top of the fact that Roose was a threat to him. The Freys 3-6 months away at the Twins are not. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

As for support in the Riverlands , if Stannis is going to be killing Freys he will have no problem getting their support and the support of any Northmen still in the Riverlands . 

What northmen in the Riverlands? At what point does Stannis think there are Northmen still in the Riverlands?

At what point does he consider teaming up with the Riverlands? I get that you really want it to happen but it makes no logical sense, it only makes sense if Stannis was breaking the 4th wall and doing what the fans want him to do. 

The Twins is not an important issue to Stannis, the Others and the Throne are, but the Twins (like Torrhens Square) are not important. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

Winterfell would be just as hard to take as the Twins

no, it would not. Winterfell had already been captured and destroyed. Wintefell is also much closer and when he set off the weather was still manageable, since then he has lost most of his horses and all of his food stores. 

The Twins, given the distance, the lack of supplies and the strength of the castle would be significantly harder to take.  

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

but Stannis is still marching on it . I would think that Stannis would be expecting help from the Riverlords when he gets to the Riverlands and we know that it is a powder keg down there just waiting to go off. 

again, zero evidence that Stannis has considered or that he has tried to open a line of communication. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

frankly we don't have any idea what he thinking about as far as time frame , he seems to be playing the long game with Massey recruiting a Sellsword army

how is that him playing the long game?

As soon as he was given the loan he has instructed Massey to go spend it and bring help. Please tell me what the short game would be?

 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

and i just have a hard time believing that he's given up on the Iron Throne and also that he would not try to get the rest of Westeros to help him fight the WW . 

No one has claimed that he has given up on the throne. 

22 hours ago, Blackfish Tully said:

 

I have a hard time believing that the man who said the following and the men who chanted "Blood and battle" would agree with you .

and the same men who saw their lands taken when they went South are unlikely to leave their homes and families vulnerable, especially not with the Wildlings in their lands. 

 

[Blackfish Tully]

13 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

Probably would, if he could get Edmure out of Casterly Rock

When did he get to Casterly Rock?

[Rufus Snow]

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

When did he get to Casterly Rock?

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Jaime I

"Ser Edmure is on his way to Casterly Rock as my captive. His wife will remain at the Twins until their child is born. Then she and the babe will join him. So long as he does not attempt escape or plot rebellion, Edmure will live a long life."

As far as we know, he hasn't escaped, so he should have arrived by now....

[Blackfish Tully]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

 

You are wildly speculating here. None of the Northmen with Stannis have mentioned anything of the sort. You are confusing what you want to happen with the characters in the book. 

 

 

so you are saying that i want Freys killed more then Northmen want to kill them ? that's hard to believe since i did not have my kin murdered by the Freys .

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

The North has forever to get revenge on the Freys, there is no timetable on that. Defending the Wall __ not so much.

 

the Northmen know that a good many of them will not survive the winter so they will want to get their  revenge now, why wait till an uncertain future time that may never come ? they will have an army in Winterfell and a great military leader leading them and the Riverlands are a powder keg of anger , when will there be a better time ?

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

no, it would not. Winterfell had already been captured and destroyed. Wintefell is also much closer and when he set off the weather was still manageable, since then he has lost most of his horses and all of his food stores. 

The Twins, given the distance, the lack of supplies and the strength of the castle would be significantly harder to take.  

 

 

Winterfell's walls are still as strong as ever and there are several feet of snow on the ground and an ongoing blizzard and Roose Bolton has an army inside that probably outnumbers Stannis's army on the outside so i think you may be wrong about this . How will Stannis be able to feed his army during the siege and how will he build siege equipment in a blizzard and how would he take the castle when Bolton has more men then he has .

 

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

It

At what point does he consider teaming up with the Riverlands? I get that you really want it to happen but it makes no logical sense, it only makes sense if Stannis was breaking the 4th wall and doing what the fans want him to do. 

The Twins is not an important issue to Stannis, the Others and the Throne are, but the Twins (like Torrhens Square) are not important. 

 

 

 

Why would it not make logical sense that Stannis wants the support of the Riverlands , maybe you are the one hoping that it does not happen because of your love for the Freys (the next book may be tough for you to read )

The Twins are not importatnt to Stannis but they would be a way for him to get the Northmen South and after they take the Riverlands they can head to Kings Landing which is important to him .

[Blackfish Tully]

7 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

As far as we know, he hasn't escaped, so he should have arrived by now....

on his way to Casterly Rock and at Casterly Rock are two very different things . There is a reason that Jamie doubled  the guard on him , there is a long way from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth so there is a good chance that Blackfish with the help of the BWB will be saving Edmure .

[Rufus Snow]

3 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

on his way to Casterly Rock and at Casterly Rock are two very different things . There is a reason that Jamie doubled  the guard on him , there is a long way from Riverrun to the Golden Tooth so there is a good chance that Blackfish with the help of the BWB will be saving Edmure .

SO FAR, for Stannis to restore Edmure, he'd need to fight the Lannisters, and he's thousands of leagues away from doing that, whether they've reached the Rock or not yet. And if Brynden rescues Edmure, how would that equate to Stannis restoring House Tully? Notwithstanding that the last sighting of the BWB had them heading towards the Neck? Do we have any reason to think the Blackfish would side with Stannis?

All in all it would be a risky adventure for Stannis, which he doesn't need when the Others are in his rear ready to give him a rough going over with their frozen popsicles.