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UK Politics: Austerity has ended - More cuts to come.

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/20/peoples-vote-eu-immigration-controls-brexit

Nice article in the Guardian showing all the ways we could have dealt properly with the immigration issue without going for Brexit. Its a shame non of this was done previously or we might not be in this mess now.

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6 hours ago, Alarich II said:

Headline is the "hysterical" woman, while apparently a man shouting at her to shut up in a meeting is acceptable and normal? That's some quality journalism... :rolleyes:

I know it's fashionable to misquot (starting with me yesterday in the US poltics thread. But credit, where credit is due. That passage is from @Chaircat Meow

So I firmly distance myself from that wording.

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6 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I know it's fashionable to misquot (starting with me yesterday in the US poltics thread. But credit, where credit is due. That passage is from @Chaircat Meow

So I firmly distance myself from that wording.

Actually, I didn't mean that as reflection on the person who introduced this into the thread (although I'm sorry for the misattribution!). The article is a great example though, how in a heated exchange (which happens all the time in tense political situations), the woman gets labelled as "hysterical" in the headlines. I should probably say thanks, because the article highlights how large parts of the British press have become contributed to the deterioration of the political process by enabling and profiting from backstabbing, anonymous slander and lies. I mean the writer of that article basically took an anonymous qoute, clearly meant to denigrate a political opponent by using some good old sexist tropes, and turned it into a headline.

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On 11/16/2018 at 7:27 PM, Werthead said:

It should be noted that May did say that there are now three options: Chequers, No Deal or No Brexit. Some have taken that as a hint that she might be willing to consider cancelling or delaying Article 50, or even invoking a second referendum if all other options fail (since No Deal also has to get through Parliament - unless we just run out of time - and very few will vote for that). The general feeling seems to be that the "No Brexit" idea was pretty toothless though.

Sorry to bring that one back up, but that post somehow escaped my attention.

It's not Chequers. It simply isn't, and will never be Chequers. The key idea of Chequers was to create a common custom territory (access to the single market), while allowing to strike trade deals with custom regimes and standards from the EU.

Chequers was bonkers to begin with, because having different sets of regulatory regimes, while having unchecked access to the common market is just cray. There's only that little divergence the system can tolerate, before it becomes unworkable. Not to mention, that it would give the UK a competitive advantage, which the EU was and is never going to grant to a third country (thus the level playing field stuff).

What it is, is a withdrawal agreement, with Turkey as UK wide backstop model (and special status for NI). The future relationship may, may or may not end up looking similar to the backstop, but it most definately will not be Chequers.

Prof Michael Dougan (University of Liverpool) explaining the whole thing in a bit more detail.

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Seeing Tory ministers spluttering their way through the UN Report on poverty in the UK and trying to deny the severity of a problem that is basically obvious to everyone who's living in the country has been entertaining, in a sort of morally repugnant kind of way.

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So Spain has decided to throw a tantrum over Gibraltar, while Raab comes away with the revelation, that staying in the EU is better than the deal on offer (no shit Sherlock, but that was always going to be the case). Somebody make him Brexit minister, now!

Fishermen in Scotland want to make sure, that their access to the EU market (to sell their catch) is not linked to EU fishing boat having access to British waters, which France, Denmark and Norway will pretty much insist on.  But it's nice to see there's still one group out there to believe in having their fish cake and eat it - it makes one kinda nostlagic. But that's for the future trade relationship to disappoint them.

Oh, and Ian Dunt is disecting that deal on a political, and it's a really brutal take down.

At his pace, I am not even 100% sure, that the MPs will get a chance to vote down May's deal in its current form (I know I said, I didn't think that Spain would block it, but they seem pretty determined about that Rock thing). So let's us see then you and I, while the weekend is nigh, if Spain will force down further concessions down May's throat. Just when you think the crazy stopped, but Brexit is really a political gift, that keeps on giving.

Have I forgotten anything, or am I more or less up to speed with the current developments.

Ah, right. There was also this open letter to Corbyn from the Labour comittee that he should start to respect party policy and stop saying that Brexit can't be stopped. I wager one beer, that Corbyn will ignore the letter.

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Man, the news is all over the place regarding the Brexit negotiations. I saw one report that May was confident she had the votes and another that said she had no chance.

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2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Man, the news is all over the place regarding the Brexit negotiations. I saw one report that May was confident she had the votes and another that said she had no chance.

Both might be correct. There's a 0% chance this will pass on a first reading, so what will happen is that there will be amendments and game-playing and then a second vote, on the idea that it'll be the deal or crashing out. May's gamble will be that this will scare the entire Conservative Party, the DUP and enough Labour MPs into backing it. She may even be correct, just.

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16 hours ago, Werthead said:

May's gamble will be that this will scare the entire Conservative Party, the DUP and enough Labour MPs into backing it. She may even be correct, just. 

I am not sure this is gonna work out. The DUP are hardcore ideologues, so they will never ever vote for that deal.

She won't get the entire Conservative Party vote either, as some of the JRM disciples will prefer a crash and WTO reboot with the UK as low tax low regulation haven. Also ideologically driven.

Then you have the remainers, who will try to use it to force a second referendum - although, I am curius what would they do, if leave were to win again.

But again, you have to see th edeal for what it is politically. Super toxic. I'd think any MP will be super reluctant to get anywhere near that thing, because there's a big chance, that they will get beaten by a rather large stick reading: You sold out the UK.

 

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2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/

Seems the SDP might be back. A manifesto that sounds pretty good to me. But then they always do.

The SDP has no MPs and barely any voters, so their support (or not) is irrelevant.

 

Quote

 

But again, you have to see th edeal for what it is politically. Super toxic. I'd think any MP will be super reluctant to get anywhere near that thing, because there's a big chance, that they will get beaten by a rather large stick reading: You sold out the UK.

 

I think it will go down to the wire, to the point where time runs out for a second referendum or a general election, and the May will simply say "It's this deal or we crash out without a deal", and force people at gunpoint to accept it. They may do so on the basis that we then have the two-year transition period during which the current status quo will effectively continue and during that time things may change.

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I think the EU would still be willing to extend the Article 50 period, if it were for a second referendum. So I am not sure this would work. A new general election, I still don't see the point of doing it, while a) both major parties are supporting leave and b.) it will likely produce another hung parliament.

If Labour somehow managed to get rid of Corbyn, then there would at least be one of the big two parties campaigning on remain. Campaigning on another Unicorn Brexit vs. May's deal is just pointless.

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On another note, Britain has abstained in the EU Parliament from voting to halt weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, because that sweet, sweet green is more important than not supporting murderous regimes. Britain's claim to any kind of moral or ethical standards looking distinctly dubious at the moment.

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Be interesting to see if the green from weapons deals also sees Jeremy Hunt leaving a British citizen to a 25 year sentence in the Emirates.

Still, better him than BoJo. His take on the situation would likely be that some student had gotten locked in the Emirate Stadium toilets, and would wonder what the fuss was.

Edited by Derfel Cadarn

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1 hour ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think the EU would still be willing to extend the Article 50 period, if it were for a second referendum. So I am not sure this would work. A new general election, I still don't see the point of doing it, while a) both major parties are supporting leave and b.) it will likely produce another hung parliament.

It could be a very weird election campaign if Theresa May was still the Tory leader and put her deal in their manifesto because there would be dozens of her MPs openly opposed to their party's manifesto. I think there's a lot of danger for the Tories in that scenario because they'd be fighting amongst themselves as much as they were fighting the opposition. Labour aren't immune to those problems either. 

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Just now, williamjm said:

It could be a very weird election campaign if Theresa May was still the Tory leader and put her deal in their manifesto because there would be dozens of her MPs openly opposed to their party's manifesto. I think there's a lot of danger for the Tories in that scenario because they'd be fighting amongst themselves as much as they were fighting the opposition. Labour aren't immune to those problems either. 

Well, if I am not mistaken, there was a Times poll recently (if I am not mistaken), that this botched leadership challenge gave her some small push. There around half the people wanted her to stay, which was an increase from previously one third (or 36% or something like that). And I still think she polls somewhat favourably against Corbyn (which says more about Corbyn though).
I mean which Tory should replace her? That's where the whole thing starts to collapse in on itself. Jeremy C. maybe? Or would you rather have that squinting toilette brush, Michael Gove, who seems like the only candidate with some shred of credibility left (how on earth did that happen) from the leavers. Raab is doing his best to become a bigger laughing stock than Boris atm. Personally, I'd love the idea of JoJo as next Tory PM, just for the sheer pettiness, that it would prolly piss off Boris, that his brother achieved what he never will (if the gods are merciful).

 

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3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Well, if I am not mistaken, there was a Times poll recently (if I am not mistaken), that this botched leadership challenge gave her some small push. There around half the people wanted her to stay, which was an increase from previously one third (or 36% or something like that). And I still think she polls somewhat favourably against Corbyn (which says more about Corbyn though).

It's going to be confusing for voters in many constituencies, for example if a Conservative voter in Rees-Mogg's constituency wants to back May's Brexit deal the only way they have of doing that is to re-elect the deal's biggest critic.

I do wonder if the Tories can really all stay together as a single party in that scenario or if the diehard Brexiteers break off to form another party.

7 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Personally, I'd love the idea of JoJo as next Tory PM, just for the sheer pettiness, that it would prolly piss off Boris, that his brother achieved what he never will (if the gods are merciful).

I have been thinking something similar, it would be very amusing, although his recent conversion to the Second Referendum cause probably ruins any leadership chance he might have in the near future.

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7 hours ago, Heartofice said:

https://sdp.org.uk/new-declaration/

Seems the SDP might be back. A manifesto that sounds pretty good to me. But then they always do.

This appears to be the rump SDP that never went away - i.e. those that were opposed to merging with the Liberals

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10 hours ago, williamjm said:

It could be a very weird election campaign if Theresa May was still the Tory leader and put her deal in their manifesto because there would be dozens of her MPs openly opposed to their party's manifesto.

To go back on that point a bit.

I'd reverse the argument, what else are they supposed to campaign on? That's a serious question.

I mean, they can hardly go out campaign on, Vote for us, and within a forthnight we will deliver the deal, we couldn't get in the past 2 years.  (well they can try, but I'll leave it for you to judge how credible that is).

That leaves campaigning for remain, also not very plausible, esp. since this entire excercise in national diminishment was aimed to get conservative voters back from UKIP.

They can also campaign on a no-deal Brexit. Which no sane person would ever sign up to. Ok, this entire enterprise was never about sanity, but that's pushing it.

If you rule those 3 options more or less out, you end up with May's deal, no matter how toxic, but that's really the only way left to go.

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