What led Brandon to believe Rhaegar would be at the Red Keep?

[Clegane'sPup]

Rhaegars wife was Dornish.

All things considered in story telling --- gotta keep the mystery going --- supposedly Rhaegar's tower of joy is located in Dorne.

The Dornish were okay with Raeghar bringing his mistress/second wife/abductee, preggers or not, into their territory?

What led Brandon to believe that Rhaegar was at the Red Keep? My question is how did Brandon receive word that Rhaegar had his sister?

 

[Ygrain]

9 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Regardless, going straight to Dragonstone would not guarantee Brandon that his challenge would be accepted or that he would be heard off from again. The place he had to go to make public his grievance and challenge was King's Landing and the one person who could compel Rhaegar was Aerys. 

Only, Brandon doesn't seem to be inclined to present his matter to Aerys, he is hellbent on challenging Rhaegar right away.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Let me say I think there is a very simple explanation to why Brandon goes to King's Landing. He wants to challenge Rhaegar to a duel.

...

 It is logical that he sees Rhaegar's likely direction toward the seat of Targaryen power because that is where he would take Lyanna if he were in Rhaegar's place. As what he believes is a unified Targaryen reaction to her coming marriage

I find it quite plausible that Brandon wanted to challenge Rhaegar first and foremost, but that still doesn't explain why he went to King's Landing. Brandon would have to be very ignorant not to be aware of the strained relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar, and I find it hard to believe that he would expect the two to collude to kidnap Lyanna. IMHO, Brandon's reaction to Lyanna's crowning when he had to be restrained not to come to blows with Rhaegar (or perhaps challenge him then and there?) points towards more personal motivation - and, indeed, if he thinks that Rhaegar is a callous womanizer like himself, he would project quite a lot into Rhaegar's motivation. In which case, he absolutely would have wanted to challenge Rhaegar to a duel, but not expect him in KL.

 

I've long proposed that Brandon went to KL due to some misdirection but I admit that the OP's solution offers the easiest and most elegant solution. The reason why I never thought about Rhaegar himself as its source is that I was misled by another parallel, from Worlorn, with a love triangle awfully similar to Cat-Brandon-LF involving a false message. I'm not letting LF off the hook just yet (a chance meeting on the road/ at the inn and a couple of words with far-reaching consequences would have been in line with his later career) but I'm afraid that it would require quite a lot of coincidence.

 

A related question, though: where was Rickard in this scenario? Was Lyanna travelling from the North in his company (meaning the "kidnapping" would have had to occur right under his nose), or was she travelling separately (most likely from HH)?

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I have been wondering about when Lyanna and Robert's wedding was supposed to take place. We never hear anything about it. 

What are the odds that Brandon's wedding could have been a double wedding, at Riverrun, same as Catelyn/Ned and Lysa/Jon Arryn ended up being?

Lyanna is not a Tully, that's true, but it seems like it would be the most practical thing to do. 

[Darth Sidious]

On 10/26/2018 at 6:09 PM, Lord Lannister said:

I think you're making something more complicated than it is. When a person decides to storm into the Red Keep and yells out for the crown prince to "come out and die" thinking things through is clearly not their strong suit. Brandon likely just went there because that's where the crown prince is expected to be.

Good point.  Where is the safest place for a prince to take his prisoner?  The family's stronghold.  It is the logical place to take your prisoner.  

On 10/26/2018 at 3:04 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

Rhaegar was looking to bring the Starks into his plot to depose Aerys and become king

No.  Just no.  I don't believe this theory of yours has any merit to it.   Rhaegar's behavior at Harrenhal refutes this.  What the Targaryens did was a direct and unsubtle insult to the Starks when he gave their sister those ugly roses.  It wasn't a spontaneous act of romance.  It was calculated to send a strong cease and desist message to the Starks.  And look at where the threat took place.  The Targaryens could not have picked a more perfect venue to send a warning to Rickard Stark and his allies.  Rickard and his sons would suffer the fate of Black Harren and his sons if he continued with his mad ambition for power.  

[Ckram]

3 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

From the limited sources we have, Brandon is portrayed as taking for granted that Rhaegar was in the Red Keep. It doesn't make sense to me that he went to KL because he just assumed Rhaegar would be there, or because he assumed Rhaegar was most likely to be there, or because he assumed it was a possibility Rhaegar might be there, or because he thought it was the best place to force the issue with Rhaegar's superior.

All fair points. However, the issue I see here is that your theory is based on the assumption that Brandon has heard something (albeit misleading) while some of the theories you say don't make sense to you presume that no one knew where Rhaegar had taken Lyanna. But they're not exclusive.

Brandon may have been misled, investigated the false trail but reached a dead end. And as @The Sleeper suggested, if Rhaegar traveled keeping a low profile, Brandon wouldn't have enough information to be sure where the prince went. In deed, the limited information we have now could be the same he gathered while pursuing Rhaegar. That's why I think Brandon decided to ride to King's Landing.

In fact, it's somehow telling that Jaime, who compares himself to Brandon ("Brandon was different from his brother, wasn't he? He had blood in his veins instead of cold water. More like me." - ACOK, CATELYN VII) , comes after Ned (Iron Throne) because Catelyn (Rhaegar) kidnapped Tyrion (Lyanna) and keeps him captive in an unknown location.

Still, I recognize that "come out and die" continues to lack context. But, you know, Brandon was not famous for his wit.

57 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Brandon would have to be very ignorant

Wasn't that Ned's judgment on Brandon (and Lyanna)? That Brandon "had more than a touch" of wolf blood and it led him "to an early grave" (AGOT, Arya II) ? To me, this sounds as if Brandon wasn't a skilled strategic thinker (and this coming from someone as inept at politics as Ned should be regarded as a bad sign).

In addition, there is the comparison that Jaime (formerly a reckless warrior) made of himself with Brandon in ACOK (please see above).

But that's just my opinion, of course.

[Ygrain]

6 hours ago, Ckram said:

Wasn't that Ned's judgment on Brandon (and Lyanna)? That Brandon "had more than a touch" of wolf blood and it led him "to an early grave" (AGOT, Arya II) ? To me, this sounds as if Brandon wasn't a skilled strategic thinker (and this coming from someone as inept at politics as Ned should be regarded as a bad sign).

I don't think that the wolf blood here refers to ignorance in political matters, but rather a tendency towards impulsive behaviour. Elsewhere, Ned says: "Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon.
You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King’s Hand and a father to queens." 

To me, this reads that Brandon was an intelligent man, perhaps even politically savvy, but his rash nature (and most likel his ego, as well) sometimes got in the way of that savviness.

8 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I have been wondering about when Lyanna and Robert's wedding was supposed to take place. We never hear anything about it. 

What are the odds that Brandon's wedding could have been a double wedding, at Riverrun, same as Catelyn/Ned and Lysa/Jon Arryn ended up being?

Lyanna is not a Tully, that's true, but it seems like it would be the most practical thing to do. 

In that case, I suppose Ned and Robert wouldn't be in the Vale but at Riverrun, or at least on the way?

However, I do think that the two weddings might have been quite close to each other in time, so that people spared themselves some long travel. Also, if Rickard indeed had some Southron ambitions, it would make sense for him to travel around Westeros under the pretext of his children's weddings.

[The Sleeper]

9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Only, Brandon doesn't seem to be inclined to present his matter to Aerys, he is hellbent on challenging Rhaegar right away.

I believe the idea would have been to make the challenge as public as possible in order to put pressure on Rhaegar to accept it. Hence the venue and the high ranking companions. 

[SFDanny]

9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Only, Brandon doesn't seem to be inclined to present his matter to Aerys, he is hellbent on challenging Rhaegar right away.

All great points, as usual, Ygrain, but let me respond that I think publicly stating his challenge before the Red Keep is his most pressing matter. Not a formal audience with Aerys. If he goes first to Aerys he would be submitting his claim for the King's Justice. Something Lord Rickard does later to try and free his son. Brandon's plan is a bad plan, and any of the Lords of Lord Rickard's alliance would have told him so., But it does have a bit of historical logic. By making the demand for a duel he removes the outcome from the King's decision. It is up to the Gods, and Brandon's skill with a sword. For some reason, Brandon cannot tell the difference between Aerys II and Aegon V. Not literally, of course, but in the sense he thinks historical precedence will protect him and his companions. It's a terrible blunder, but by publicly proclaiming his demand for a duel he thinks he can force the Targaryens into such a thing. Perhaps Old Nan told him too many stories about Ser Duncan the Tall.

9 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I find it quite plausible that Brandon wanted to challenge Rhaegar first and foremost, but that still doesn't explain why he went to King's Landing. Brandon would have to be very ignorant not to be aware of the strained relationship between Aerys and Rhaegar, and I find it hard to believe that he would expect the two to collude to kidnap Lyanna. IMHO, Brandon's reaction to Lyanna's crowning when he had to be restrained not to come to blows with Rhaegar (or perhaps challenge him then and there?) points towards more personal motivation - and, indeed, if he thinks that Rhaegar is a callous womanizer like himself, he would project quite a lot into Rhaegar's motivation. In which case, he absolutely would have wanted to challenge Rhaegar to a duel, but not expect him in KL.

Responding to the bolded first, let me say why I disagree. Yes, everyone in Westeros is aware of the "strained relationship" between Aerys and Rhaegar. Harrenhal likely starts out as the best example of father and son being at odds. It doesn't end that way, however. It ends with Rhaegar doing almost the same thing that his father did at the start of the tourney. 

By that I mean Aerys in a brilliant political maneuver "honors" Jaime through his elevation to the Kingsguard, and thereby weakens he political foes. First and foremost he ends the negotiations for a marriage pact between Jaime and Lysa. Thereby ending House Lannister's entry into Lord Rickard's web of alliances. He also robs Tywin of his heir and brings Jaime to King's Landing as a de facto hostage. And lastly he forces his great rival, Tywin, to resign as Hand. Brilliant move, and likely not thought of by Aerys himself. Whoever thought of it, Aerys understands what is being done.

What Rhaegar does at the end of the Harrenhal tourney is almost the same kind of act without having the king's power. Politically, what Rhaegar does is say he has a personal interest in not letting the marriage to Robert go through. He "honors" Lyanna as his queen of love and beauty, and I believe there are reasons to believe this surface reading has validity as well, but the politics of it move Rhaegar squarely into the camp of his father's action against the forming alliances of Lord Rickard's "southron ambitions." This is not surprising in that it seems very likely that the message sent to Rhaegar by Brandon's treatment of Ashara is one of complete rejection of the offer for a council to remove Aerys. The Starks say in their actions, as well as in private words likely, that they are not interested in helping Rhaegar maintain Targaryen rule through a council's action.

By which I mean, Brandon and the rest of the STAB alliance know full well by the end of Harrenhal that Rhaegar's political forces are, by necessity, realigned to support his father's rule. I believe this is the case until the "kidnapping" occurs, and it is Brandon's mindset when he hears the news. He believes father and son are working together when he rides to King's Landing. Working, as they showed at Harrenhal to thwart Lord Rickard's plans.

In fact, politically, Rhaegar's action of taking Lyanna is simply making good on his threat made when he gave Lyanna the crown of winter roses. That he doesn't show up in King's Landing is the strange part of all of this. It shows that the rapprochement between Aerys and Rhaegar had its limits and, come what may, didn't include bringing Lyanna to the Red Keep as a hostage. I think that has much to do with Lyanna's wishes, and Rhaegar's feelings.

As to Brandon's reaction to the crowning, I disagree. We are shown over and over again in this series and in the history the great umbrage taken by Lords whose marriage contracts are not honored or interfered with. It is all bout a Lord's rights. Brandon's reaction fits perfectly into this theme.

10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I've long proposed that Brandon went to KL due to some misdirection but I admit that the OP's solution offers the easiest and most elegant solution. The reason why I never thought about Rhaegar himself as its source is that I was misled by another parallel, from Worlorn, with a love triangle awfully similar to Cat-Brandon-LF involving a false message. I'm not letting LF off the hook just yet (a chance meeting on the road/ at the inn and a couple of words with far-reaching consequences would have been in line with his later career) but I'm afraid that it would require quite a lot of coincidence.

 All of this is possible, and we are operating on too little information, but as I said in my first post, I like the idea of Rhaegar dropping his destination, as Catelyn does so much later, in his confrontation with what I suspect are Winterfell guards in escort of Lyanna to Riverrun.

10 hours ago, Ygrain said:

A related question, though: where was Rickard in this scenario? Was Lyanna travelling from the North in his company (meaning the "kidnapping" would have had to occur right under his nose), or was she travelling separately (most likely from HH)?

My guess is she is traveling from the Vale to the wedding, while Rickard is traveling south from Winterfell.

[SFDanny]

9 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I have been wondering about when Lyanna and Robert's wedding was supposed to take place. We never hear anything about it. 

What are the odds that Brandon's wedding could have been a double wedding, at Riverrun, same as Catelyn/Ned and Lysa/Jon Arryn ended up being?

Lyanna is not a Tully, that's true, but it seems like it would be the most practical thing to do. 

I have pushed this idea for some time now. I think what we see is the Stark-Tully-Baratheon response to the royal interference in their alliances. Their reaction is to move ahead with all deliberate speed. I think it quite likely that Robert and Lyanna's upcoming marriage has been moved up and is to take place, if not alongside her brother's then shortly thereafter. The Starks have spent years building these alliances, and they are not about to let Rhaegar's threats stand in their way, if they can help it.

As it turns out, with Lyanna's help I believe, they can't stop Rhaegar's interference.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

In that case, I suppose Ned and Robert wouldn't be in the Vale but at Riverrun, or at least on the way?

However, I do think that the two weddings might have been quite close to each other in time, so that people spared themselves some long travel. Also, if Rickard indeed had some Southron ambitions, it would make sense for him to travel around Westeros under the pretext of his children's weddings.

We don't know how any of them were going to travel, but Ned at the very least would have had to make the trip to Riverrun for his brother's wedding. They may even have started their journey and then told to return to to the Vale after Brandon was arrested. By then, I'm assuming that the wedding was going to be delayed anyway.

And it's apparently winter which could be relevant. We've seen in the story how the snows can slow down someone's progress. 

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I have pushed this idea for some time now. I think what we see is the Stark-Tully-Baratheon response to the royal interference in their alliances.

This isn't meant to open a can of worms, and I've said it before, I don't buy at all into southron ambitions, but a double wedding for Hoster Tully may have been an important thing. I think he was the one looking for those outside alliances to counter Walder Frey and all those marriages he had made himself and his children. 

I do agree, though, that a double wedding would have sent a signal far and wide even if none of these men are looking to take down the Targaryens.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 5:03 PM, wia said:

Well, getting Lyanna's relatives caught and killed (yes, he knew his dad was mad and paranoid about people defying him and liked murdering people right and left) by Aerys is such a noble and effective way to protect Lyanna from Aerys. Especially after so publicly outing her himself. Golden star to the knight in shining ruby armour.

Otherwise it's a very sound and believable theory. Chances are she was taken in the very same inn as Tyrion.

@wia

Whatever Rhaegar's intentions or motivations for abducting Lyanna, and we must assume that he had a strong conviction about what he was doing in his own mind, we can be reasonably certain that things did not go exactly as he had anticipated.

Even in the highly unlikely event that he intentionally sparked a conflict in which he believed most Starks and Targaryens, including his parents, children, and wife would die or be killed, I don't think he intended for he or Lyanna to end up dead.

One side tells us that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna and raped her.
One side tells us that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna and loved her.

I think we should be skeptical that either narrative tells us the whole truth of the matter, though I do think Rhaegar came to love Lyanna at some point, and that Lyanna came to love Rhaegar at some point.

And while I think we will get an explanation for what Rhaegar's thinking was for why he did what he did, we should not expect to get an explanation that diminishes the horrible consequences of his plans and actions.

In the end:

• Rhaegar's father Aerys murdered Lyanna's father Rickard and brother Brandon
   
• Rhaegar's father Aerys called for Lyanna's brother Ned to be executed by Jon Arryn
   
• Rhaegar's friend Myles was killed by Robert, as he stayed far away from the ensuing war
   
• Rhaegar's friend Jon was almost killed by Robert, and was stripped of his lands and titles and exiled by Aerys, as he stayed far away from the ensuing war
   
• Rhaegar was killed by Robert after he finally returned to join the war
   
• Rhaegar's pregnant mother Rhaella and brother Viserys were sent away to Dragonstone to become exiles
   
• Rhaegar's wife Elia, daughter Rhaenys, and son Aegon, whom he believed to be the Prince That Was Promised, were murdered by Tywin's men
   
• Rhaegar's father Aerys was murdered by Tywin's son Jaime
   
• Rhaegar's best friend Arthur, likely confidant Oswell, and father's Lord Commander Gerold were killed fighting Lyanna's brother Ned and his men
   
• Rhaegar's abductee and possible lover Lyanna died, likely giving birth to their son Jon
   
• Rhaegar's mother Rhaella died giving birth to his sister Daenerys on Dragonstone
   
• Rhaegar's brother Viserys and sister Daenerys became exiles and pawns of other peoples' plans in Essos

Even in a scenario where Rhaegar had the worst possible intentions, he is highly unlikely to have anticipated or desired anything like these end results.

[Ckram]

7 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I don't think that the wolf blood here refers to ignorance in political matters, but rather a tendency towards impulsive behaviour.

Ok, it'd more accurate to say that his wolf blood gets in the way of whatever political skills he had.

7 hours ago, Ygrain said:

"Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon.
You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King’s Hand and a father to queens."

Taking only the bolded in consideration, I'd have to disagree. It sounded as Ned was saying Brandon always had his mind firmly made about anything, what can be read as a a tendency to make rushed judgments.

However, the last part, when Ned put Brandon is his shoes as hand of the king is a strong indication that I'm wrong and that he considered Brandon to be politically savvy.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 6:13 PM, bent branch said:

Well, I have maintained for sometime that Rhaegar took Lyanna as a hostage against the plotting Starks.

It can't be ruled out, but I don't see any evidence or hint for that. As it stands, Rhaegar is the most likely candidate to have been plotting against Aerys, not the Starks. And the Starks only become suspects, IMO wrongly, when Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna QOLAB causes Aerys's lickspittle small councilors Chelsted and Staunton to treat them as guilty by association to Rhaegar and his assumed plots.

[wia]

10 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@wia

Whatever Rhaegar's intentions or motivations for abducting Lyanna, and we must assume that he had a strong conviction about what he was doing in his own mind, we can be reasonably certain that things did not go exactly as he had anticipated.

Even in the highly unlikely event that he intentionally sparked a conflict in which he believed most Starks and Targaryens, including his parents, children, and wife would die or be killed, I don't think he intended for he or Lyanna to end up dead.

One side tells us that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna and raped her.
One side tells us that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna and loved her.

I think we should be skeptical that either narrative tells us the whole truth of the matter, though I do think Rhaegar came to love Lyanna at some point, and that Lyanna came to love Rhaegar at some point.

And while I think we will get an explanation for what Rhaegar's thinking was for why he did what he did, we should not expect to get an explanation that diminishes the horrible consequences of his plans and actions.

In the end:

- Rhaegar's father Aerys murdered Lyanna's father Rickard and brother Brandon
- Rhaegar's father Aerys called for Lyanna's brother Ned to be executed by Jon Arryn
- Rhaegar's friend Myles was killed by Robert, as he stayed far away from the ensuing war
- Rhaegar's friend Jon was almost killed by Robert, and was stripped of his lands and titles and exiled by Aerys, as he stayed far away from the ensuing war
- Rhaegar was killed by Robert after he finally returned to join the war
- Rhaegar's pregnant mother Rhaella and brother Viserys were sent away to Dragonstone to become exiles
- Rhaegar's wife Elia, daughter Rhaenys, and son Aegon, whom he believed to be the Prince That Was Promised, were murdered by Tywin's men
- Rhaegar's father Aerys was murdered by Tywin's son Jaime
- Rhaegar's best friend Arthur, likely confidant Oswell, and father's Lord Commander Gerold were killed fighting Lyanna's brother Ned and his men
- Rhaegar's abductee and possible lover Lyanna died, likely giving birth to their son Jon
- Rhaegar's mother Rhaella died giving birth to his sister Daenerys on Dragonstone
- Rhaegar's brother Viserys and sister Daenerys became exiles and pawns of other peoples' plans in Essos

Even in a scenario where Rhaegar had the worst possible intentions, he is highly unlikely to have anticipated or desired anything like these end results.

I just think that:
- he abducted her and directed her family to KL
or
- he was saving her and has nothing to do with the possible disinformation about him and Lyanna heading to KL that Brandon possibly received
but
- saving Lyanna and sending her quite predictably angry family to his infamously mad dad doesn't go together

I don't see how it's possible for Rhaegar to not anticipate that kidnapping Lyanna will create a major problem between her family and Aerys that will end in many deaths. Even if Aerys was already after Lyanna, and even if Brandon was the coolest cucumber in the kingdom, how did he suppose it goes?
- Aerys: Lyanna is the KofLT, catch her and bring her to me
- Rhaegar: quite publicly kidnaps her and goes into hiding
- Brandon: hears that Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna and took her to KL
- Brandon: doesn't loose his cool, goes to assemble his banners, sends an official demand to Areys to return his sister that Rhaegar kidnapped
- Aerys: well he starts a war  one way or another, duh 
That's like the best ever option he could possibly get and it bad, and it's not only bad for Lyanna, it's bad for him as well. I'd get the saving part of it was kidnapping => negotiating with Starks & their allies to overthrow Aerys plan. But clearly that's not how it went.

The way it's presented, Rhaegar is either the dumbest person in the kingdom (theories), or just a prophesy-obsessed rapist (official). There's just no good explanation of how an intelligent and, based on the descriptions of people who knew him, decent guy could do what he was supposed to do according to either the official version or theories. It wasn't a mistake, losing control for a night while being taken care of hot girl type of thing. It was him making a lot of bad decisions, one after the other for over a year. Decisions that endangered his wife, family, himself, Lyanna and her family and overall the realm. The whole 'TPTWP' thing doesn't fly - surely the life of Aegon would be his first priority then, while war and making yourself personally the enemy of Starks, Brartheons, Tullies by marriage and simultaneously gravely insulting Martells and having yourself disowned is not the key to Aegon's survival. Something about this story doesn't work and 'couldn't predict that kidnapping Lord Paramount's daughter and misdirecting her brother to go to KL would lead to a mess' explanation is not solving the problem.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 6:42 PM, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Agree.

The following day. I think that's the most important part that's omitted from this. The KotLT did his/her thing on the same day, met with the three knights s/he beat, then was gone. Aerys was already unhappy with the whole situation.

The following day, the mystery knight was a no show, Aerys sent Rhaegar to find him, which I don't know how he was supposed to accomplish that a day later.

I don't think he discovered anything. What he suspected it was her? 

There is another incident that happened, and that's Lyanna saving Howland Reed from the three squires. It's possible that he witnessed it. The attack on Howland was done in the open, so anyone else could have happened upon that. 

If Rhaegar did see the incident, then it's possible for him to have put two and two together. Between the shield and the small stature, the knights who were challenged. Maybe he figured out it was her and followed her after that. 

I don't know that Aerys would trust Rhaegar to arrest Lyanna after Staunton and Chelsted filled his head with the talk of the crowning being a political ploy.

But did you ever wonder whether Rhaegar and Brandon may have been working together to get Rickard to Rhaegar's side? 

As a complete non-believer in southern ambition, I have been wondering about this. 

We have the ransoming of the armor and mounts at Harrenhal as seems to be practice in tourneys. Rhaegar tossed Brandon from his horse, so we have an opportunity for a meeting right here. We know that Brandon was pissed with Lyanna being crowned QoLaB, but he didn't need to be angry for all that long or to believe there was anything going on if Lyanna took the time to explain to him what she had done. 

I have been wondering if Rhaegar being in the riverlands wasn't about him meeting with Brandon and possibly meeting with Rickard as he came down from the north. It makes no sense to me that Rickard knowing his son's temperament would allow him to go riding into King's Landing. 

But things got derailed with whatever happened with Lyanna. And then Brandon goes on his mad ride to KL and says those words and gets himself arrested. Maybe he thought he had been used.

The other option is that Brandon absolutely knew what happened with Lyanna and that she was safe with Rhaegar, but decided to rush the Red Keep anyway to force his father's hand into supporting Rhaegar because he would not do so.

Going by how everyone sat on their asses and seems to have said nothing after all those people were executed, it seems to me that Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully were fine carrying on with a king who was not in his right mind. And maybe Rickard was too.

Maybe everyone's executions had more to do with Aerys believing that they were conspiring with Rhaegar to have him removed from power, than them actually posing an actual threat to Rhaegar.

There's a quote from Ned all the way back in AGoT that seems throw away, but placed in this context, maybe it's not and Ned knew a lot more about what Brandon had been up to.

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth. "Brandon. Yes. Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon. You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King's Hand and a father to queens. I never asked for this cup to pass to me." (Catelyn II, AGOT 6)

This could easily have a double meaning.

I know what the reply to this is going to be that I'm wrong, which granted, super possible.

That Aerys did not send Rhaegar after the Knight of the Laughing Tree until he didn't show up the next morning isn't pertinent to the theory that Rhaegar discovered that the KOTLT was Lyanna. I am certainly not suggesting that Lyanna was still going around in armor the next day.

But I do think Rhaegar found out, whether he deduced that it was Lyanna the same day, perhaps having witnessed her showing against the three squires earlier in the day, and/or heard something familiar in the exaggerated voice of the KOTLT during the public ransoming, or whether he followed the KOTLT on his own accord the night of and witnessed Lyanna or one of her brothers discarding the shield and armor, or whether he followed Lyanna or one of her brothers discarding the shield and armor the next day after it became clear how serious Aerys was about learning the identity. I don't think the day on which the shield was allegedly found is pertinent to whether Rhaegar found out the KOTLT was Lyanna.

We know that Aerys distrusted Rhaegar, yet he named one of his good friends (Jon) his Hand when Rhaegar couldn't be found, and eventually listened to Rhaegar to send a raven to Tywin, and he eventually had Rhaegar lead his forces in the Battle of the Trident. We know Aerys distrusted Jaime, yet he kept him closer than any other KG, and commanded him to bring Tywin's head to him.

Aerys was not a stable person. But aside from that, Aerys clearly was capable of believing that people were plotting against him and his life, yet also clearly was capable of putting those same people in important positions, believing that either his power as the king, or his ability to threaten them or those they loved would keep them in place.

I am not convinced that Aerys would have entrusted Rhaegar to arrest Lyanna in a scenario where he called for Lyanna's arrest. But I don't want to dismiss the possibility. Why would he entrust Rhaegar with such a task when he did not trust him? We can just as easily ask why he entrusted Rhaegar with leading the forces at the Trident. Or why he entrusted Lewyn with leading the Dornish forces at the Trident. But I think there are a number of reasons Aerys could justify such a thing:

Aerys has Rhaegar's wife and children, including the son Rhaegar believes is the PTWP. Aside from that, Aerys and his lickspittle small councilors Chelsted and Staunton are just looking and waiting for a "whiff of proof" that Rhaegar is conspiring against Aerys. Entrusting Rhaegar with the task of arresting Lyanna puts him in a difficult position of having to either obey his father and deliver what they believe to be a piece in his plots against his father, or disobey his father and "prove his perfidy."

Whether Aerys charged Rhaegar with bringing back Lyanna, or whether Rhaegar discovered the plan and acted to get out in front of it, Rhaegar leading witnesses to believe that he was bringing Lyanna to King's Landing would have led Aerys to expect his return with Lyanna long enough for him to disappear with her, and be unable to be found by either side many months into the ensuing war.

Personally, no, I don't believe Brandon was in on anything re: Rhaegar. I do think that it is likely there was a possibly important conversation between Brandon and Rhaegar during a ransoming of armor, but I think it is more likely that Rhaegar used it as an opportunity to inform Brandon that he knew Lyanna was the KOTLT whom his mad father sought. Whether Rhaegar tried to float the idea of a a Great Council, or deposing Aerys, at that time, I don't know. Whether Brandon would have viewed that, or the crowning of Lyanna as QOLAB, as a threat, I don't know. But I don't think Brandon was on board or came on board with any plot of Rhaegar's.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 6:43 PM, Kandrax said:

Can we be sure that Brandon shouted for him to come out and die? 

Perhaps he just accused and said that Rhaegar needs to be punished for his crime in front of Aerys.

Perhaps we will get information that leads to other possibilities, but for now, we have a comment that implies that Brandon believed Rhaegar was in the Red Keep at the time he arrived, and that Brandon rode to the Red Keep because he believed Rhaegar would be there.

And Brandon had no reason to be certain of that, or believe that was the likeliest or even a likely scenario, unless he was told that Rhaegar was heading to King's Landing.

It could be that Rhaegar did not vocalize that, and only made a show of heading in that direction before doubling back and going elsewhere, banking on the hopes that possible witnesses would relay the story that he was heading in that direction.

But to me, it makes more sense that Rhaegar actually vocalized that he was heading that way when he abducted Lyanna, that way he could be certain that that would be the story that was immediately spread from the scene, giving him time to get closer to where he intended before any newer, more accurate information could displace that story.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 6:49 PM, Seams said:

I think you're right, that the author wants us to compare the two abductions. One of the hints is in that she-wolf reference. I haven't been a big proponent of the inversion theories, where an event takes place and then a near-opposite event takes place, but I have seen some persuasive examples presented in this forum. The abduction of a she-wolf followed by this abduction by a she-wolf may be a prime example.

I also think that the Defiance of Duskendale, where Aerys was held by the Darklyn family, is supposed to be compared to Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion. Never thought to compare it to the alleged abduction of Lyanna.

I agree. I'm not a fan of interpreting everything in the series as a parallel of something else in the story or past. But I do think we get some hints here and there of the past story or characters that ASOIAF is built on in the current story. And I think Catelyn's abduction of Tyrion could give us a glimpse of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna.

I don't expect the scenes, motivations, or fallouts to be identical, because I don't think GRRM works like that. But I think some aspects of the one could indicate how some aspects of the other played out. And to me, one of the things that I think requires the least amount of fanciful interpretation, is that Rhaegar might have intentionally misled witnesses, and those the witnesses brought the information to, about where he was going/taking Lyanna.

We have no reason to doubt that Rhaegar carried Lyanna off, whether he had good or bad intentions for her, whether it was against her will or at her request, or any other possible circumstances. Both the "rape" and "love" narratives agree that Rhaegar carried her off, so that isn't likely to be wrong. The mystery is the story behind it.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 8:26 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

I think the simplest explanation of Brandon being mad at Rhaegar at Harrenhall and then again in King's Landing is that he never came around with any sort of secrets confided to him. And that King's Landing is the seat of the Westerosi government. In a feudal society the head of a household answers for the misdeeds of those under them, so the King needs to address Brandon's complaints about Rhaegar (though Brandon certainly didn't go about it in a way likely to make the king amenable). If he'd gone directly to Dragonstone he might have been refused any justice and then had to go back to King's Landing to complain. Or perhaps his companions would simply be killed and Rhaegar could pretend their boat sank on the way over.

But he didn't go to King's Landing calling for Aerys to deal with the nowhere-to-be-found Rhaegar. He rode into the Red Keep calling for Rhaegar to come out. He rode to King's Landing because he thought Rhaegar would be there. He called for Rhaegar to come out because he thought he was there. And this isn't just something that he would have assumed. He had to have had reason to think Rhaegar would be there, and to think that Rhaegar was there. I propose that he thought he was there because he led witnesses to his abduction of Lyanna to believe he was going to take her to King's Landing when he intended to go somewhere else, just as Catelyn led witnesses to her abduction of Tyrion to believe she was going to take him to Winterfell when she intended to go to the Eyrie.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 8:44 PM, Dorian Martell's son said:

Or, the prince, while away from his seat on dragonstone, would go where after "kidnapping" the daughter of the lord paramount? He would go to the capital, specifically the seat of his family's power, which would be the red keep. Brandon wanted to find the prince, and he knew the prince was on the continent. It would be basic deduction. No tinfoil hat needed. 

I disagree. Rhaegar hasn't lived in King's Landing for two years, and has a troubled relationship with his father King Aerys. There is nothing basic or logical about Brandon assuming that Rhaegar is in King's Landing unless he received some sort of intelligence that that was where Rhaegar was going. If Brandon had rode into the Red Keep to meet with Aerys, that would be a perfectly acceptable explanation. But our lone source claims Brandon rode into the Red Keep shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die, and we have no reason to believe Brandon would have assumed Rhaegar would be or was present there without cause.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 10/26/2018 at 10:00 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I believe it was Jaime who first said that Brandon used the words come out and die when he was talking to Catelyn as Robb's prisoner. My question is what was the context? Did Brandon say anything else, like, "release my sister or come out and die." Or, "you dishonored my House and sister, I challenge to you a duel Ser, come out and die." If he just started chanting Rhaegar come out and die the moment he got into the Red Keep then he might have been a bit touched. I mean he had what days? Before he got to KL after getting the news his sister was missing.

The point is that he rode to KL believing Rhaegar would be there, and once in the Red Keep, called for Rhaegar to come out believing he was there. We have reason to believe Brandon was a passionate person, but no reason to believe he was delusional or crazy.