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U.S. Politics: Impoverished In Squalor

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I finally saw Buttegieg speak and I get it. Count me on the fan wagon. I would love for him to get the exposure to rise in the ranks.

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Andrew Gillum is launching a massive voter registration effort aimed at ensuring that President Trump doesn’t win Florida again in 2020 and to give Democrats a decisive edge in a state where elections are often 50-50 splits.

The 39-year-old Democrat and former Tallahassee mayor plans to use the list of supporters and volunteers he amassed in his razor-thin gubernatorial defeat in 2018 to register 1 million new voters before next year’s presidential election.

“We’re going to be a major player and deliver Florida to whoever the Democratic nominee is,” he told The Daily Beast before his announcement in Miami Gardens on Wednesday evening. “I firmly believe that Florida is not a red state, it’s not a purple state. It’s an unorganized state.”

His supporters registered a new group in advance of his announcement called Bring It Home Florida, named after a commonly used phrase from his campaign. While Gillum did not say exactly how much they intend to spend on the effort, he characterized it as one of the largest voter registration investments in history. His political action committee, Forward Florida, has nearly $3.9 million at its disposal. This is in addition to a plan from the state party to spend $2 million on voter registration.

 

Andrew Gillum Plans to Sign Up 1 Million New Florida Voters
The state is notoriously 50-50, with Republicans often eking out a win over Democrats. Now the man who narrowly lost the closest governor’s race ever has a plan to change things.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/andrew-gillum-announces-2020-plans-sign-up-1-million-new-florida-voters?ref=home

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6 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yet it is tell that many in the psychological community feel this is necessary.

It's telling that many outlets are willing to publish such shit and pose it as academic work because there's a phud after the author's name, yeah.  Again, I don't think that's a good thing.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And besides, it's good to inform the public about the differences between narcissism and NPD. Understanding the latter helps with understanding Trump's likely reactions to negative stimuli.  

Is it?  My prior would be the vast majority of people on either side don't give a shit about the distinction.  They either believe he's unfit for office, or they don't.  Psychologists aren't going to significantly change that estimation, one way or the other.  Which means a lot of such op-eds are inherently circle jerks.

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a first for me tonight - yet another political pollster, but unlike previous members of his ilk, he called on my rarely used cell phone and not the landline.  This one was from Pew, or said was, at any rate.  Unusually for these polls, there were a *lot* of 'politics and religion' questions, though a few questions dealt with immigration and taxes.  No obvious steering.  

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

a first for me tonight - yet another political pollster, but unlike previous members of his ilk, he called on my rarely used cell phone and not the landline.  This one was from Pew, or said was, at any rate.  Unusually for these polls, there were a *lot* of 'politics and religion' questions, though a few questions dealt with immigration and taxes.  No obvious steering.  

The religion questions might be unusual for pollsters in general, but would be common for Pew, which traditionally has done a lot of polling about religion and religious beliefs, including their relationship with politics.

Edited by Ormond

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Posted (edited)

This morning’s laugh.

The governor of Kentucky heard about a neighbour’s kids having chicken pox and brought over his nine (!!!!) kids and exposed them all.

He doesn’t believe in vaccines. It’s un-American to make people have vaccines.

 

Edited by Fragile Bird

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15 hours ago, DMC said:

It's telling that many outlets are willing to publish such shit and pose it as academic work because there's a phud after the author's name, yeah.  Again, I don't think that's a good thing.

Not author. Several authors who are professors at the top institutions in the country. Kind of different wouldn’t you say?

Quote

Is it?  My prior would be the vast majority of people on either side don't give a shit about the distinction.  They either believe he's unfit for office, or they don't.  Psychologists aren't going to significantly change that estimation, one way or the other.  Which means a lot of such op-eds are inherently circle jerks.

They should care about the distinction. But then again, you know my thoughts on the average American.

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1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not author. Several authors who are professors at the top institutions in the country. Kind of different wouldn’t you say?

No, I would not say.  I don't care if it's Professor Charles Gandalf from Hogwarts, some random opinions should not be passed off as academic work.  Which, they would respond, they're technically not, which is true, but it's the impression a lot of people get.  Hell it seems to be the impression you get.

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

They should care about the distinction.

Why?

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5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

This morning’s laugh.

The governor of Kentucky heard about a neighbour’s kids having chicken pox and brought over his nine (!!!!) kids and exposed them all.

He doesn’t believe in vaccines. It’s un-American to make people have vaccines.

 

To be fair, chicken pox parties predate anti-vaxxers so this is just some fortunate crossover.

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5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

The governor of Kentucky heard about a neighbour’s kids having chicken pox and brought over his nine (!!!!) kids and exposed them all.

He doesn’t believe in vaccines. It’s un-American to make people have vaccines.

This reminds me of a South Park clip, except I can't find South Park clips anymore because of the libertarian illuminati, so I'll just paraphrase:

Kyle:  Dude, our parents sent us over to Kenny's to try to get us sick.

Stan:  They did?

Kyle:  Yeah, and I think I figured out why.

Stan:  Why?

Kyle:  Because they're a bunch of assholes.

Stan: [surprised] Oooh!

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Just saw Trump has tweeted that the US will change US policy and go against a UN resolution and support Israel’s rights to the Golan Heights.

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10 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Just saw Trump has tweeted that the US will change US policy and go against a UN resolution and support Israel’s rights to the Golan Heights.

This was foreshadowed by a State Department report a week or so ago.  It's not surprising at all, and frankly not nearly as meaningful as POTUS recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital.

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11 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Butigig looks like Martin Freeman's stunt double.

Psh, Martin Freeman wishes.

Been asked on..four different occasions the past week or so do I think Trump is gonna get reelected.  When my advisor asked me I thought about it to give a smart answer.  There's two things to consider:  one, the economy.  That's not my forte but I think it's significantly possible it goes in the shitter.  It's also entirely possible growth doesn't continue at this pace and is middling.  And, really, no matter how the macro-metrics are that should be the argument the Dem nominee should be making, so there's that to consider.  Anyway, between the two above possibilities I think that's about 75% probability.  

The second thing to consider is approval.  And this is where it become really hard to talk about with non-researchers.  Trump won an open race with very low favorability ratings, yes.  But that's different.  A cursory glance would say incumbency should improve his probability, but no one has ever tried to quantify presidential incumbency advantage.  Why?  Because it'd be a really stupid measure.  Bush Jr. won, yeah, but he barely won, and that was during a war and still coming off of a benefit from something I don't think anyone wants to happen again.  Obama, Clinton and Reagan won, but (a) they were very talented politicians, and (b) their opponents were objectively weak.  Before that you have to go Ike, and yeah Ike won because he's motherfucking Ike.  And got to face Stevenson, again.  

I digress.  Sorry, that became a whole thing.  Point is, low approval - and particularly >50% disapproval - for a sitting president unquestionably overrides any incumbency advantage.  Overall, Trump is very likely to be in a weaker position when considering those two main factors this cycle than he was last cycle.  And considering he won on the tip of knife, that's very not good.  His numbers in the most important states are very not good.  If I worked for Trump, I would be pulling my hair out trying to figure out how he wins.

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3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Psh, Martin Freeman wishes.

Been asked on..four different occasions the past week or so do I think Trump is gonna get reelected.  When my advisor asked me I thought about it to give a smart answer.  There's two things to consider:  one, the economy.  That's not my forte but I think it's significantly possible it goes in the shitter.  It's also entirely possible growth doesn't continue at this pace and is middling.  And, really, no matter how the macro-metrics are that should be the argument the Dem nominee should be making, so there's that to consider.  Anyway, between the two above possibilities I think that's about 75% probability.  

The second thing to consider is approval.  And this is where it become really hard to talk about with non-researchers.  Trump won an open race with very low favorability ratings, yes.  But that's different.  A cursory glance would say incumbency should improve his probability, but no one has ever tried to quantify presidential incumbency advantage.  Why?  Because it'd be a really stupid measure.  Bush Jr. won, yeah, but he barely won, and that was during a war and still coming off of a benefit from something I don't think anyone wants to happen again.  Obama, Clinton and Reagan won, but (a) they were very talented politicians, and (b) their opponents were objectively weak.  Before that you have to go Ike, and yeah Ike won because he's motherfucking Ike.  And got to face Stevenson, again.  

I digress.  Sorry, that became a whole thing.  Point is, low approval - and particularly >50% disapproval - for a sitting president unquestionably overrides any incumbency advantage.  Overall, Trump is very likely to be in a weaker position when considering those two main factors this cycle than he was last cycle.  And considering he won on the tip of knife, that's very not good.  His numbers in the most important states are very not good.  If I worked for Trump, I would be pulling my hair out trying to figure out how he wins.

Assume he's gonna win. That way your soul will be pre-crushed.

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My soul was irredeemable a long time ago.

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23 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Assume he's gonna win. That way your soul will be pre-crushed.

Why do you assume that any of us have souls?  I'm just an amalgam of fancy hats and good shoes running on ios.

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3 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I'm just an amalgam of fancy hats and good shoes running on ios.

You keep on talking up these shoes.  Pics or it didn't happen.

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