US Politics: Celebrating and despairing too early;No poll bump for Trump yet.

[Guy Kilmore]

20 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Ok, I'm not sure you "avoid" paying taxes if you are given the gift by Congress of full expensing and a lower tax rate.  (Put differently, avoid as compared to what - pre change in law?  DUH).  (Also, at least based on the news article, the report doesn't take into account the DTLs that have to be booked as a result of expensing and the 2026 cliff, but I digress).

Why is this a news story? Based on this Hill article, a left leaning think tank concluded that the tax cuts were an expensive waste. This is like Mr. Obvious went to Apparenttown.  The rate cut to 21% was horrible policy.  The foreign provisions are probably GOOD policy, but mis-priced.  Section 163(j) interest deductibility limitations could have been good policy, but they whiffed in the execution basically to push this through in reconciliation.  Section 199A pass through deduction is horrendous policy (should have just gotten rid of capital gains preference if they were trying to fix the problem 199A purports by some accounts to be about, but I'm a broken record on that point).  And expensing is a mindless giveaway.  A discussion of what is good and bad would be a real analysis rather than what was done.   

I think it is less about the information and more about when the information is shared.  For a bunch of people Taxes were a little bit of a surprise in the amounts paid out, and hearing this information around the same time as a decently surprise bill would be "interesting."

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

So in other words, you’re a dirty F’ing CHEESEHEAD!!!!

You were raised on cheap beer and bad sausages!!!!!!!!!!!!

I sure hope not, I only lived their until 3.  I'm a late 70s baby, I know, but I don't think my parents were that reckless.

[OldGimletEye]

At this time, I'd would like to give a big round of applause to the Davos crowd, for helping to destroy the system of international cooperation, complaining about it and then suggesting we fix it with "multi stake holder" solutions or something.

Good job Davos! Good one!

Two interesting studies:

https://voxeu.org/article/austerity-caused-brexit

Quote

Since the EU referendum in the UK, a rich but mainly descriptive literature has emerged aiming to make sense of the causes behind the Brexit vote (e.g. Miles 2016, Becker et al. 2016, O'Rourke 2016, Tomlinson 2017). Given the political meltdown in the UK, this is more imperative than ever.  An important cross-cutting observation is that Leave-voting areas have been ‘left behind’ and that the local populations are particularly reliant on the welfare state.  In a recent new paper (Fetzer 2018), I bring together broad and comprehensive evidence which suggests that austerity policies since 2010 are an important factor that contributed to the build-up of anti-establishment sentiment and helped shift the scales in the referendum in favour of Leave

https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/Political Machinery_171008_CF5.pdf

Quote

Technological progress has created prosperity for mankind at large, yet it has always created winners and losers in the labour market. During the days of the British Industrial Revolution a sizeable share of the workforce was left worse off by almost any measure
as it lost its jobs to technology. The result was a series of riots against machines. In similar fashion, robots have recently reduced employment and wages in US labour markets. Building on the intuition that voters who have lost out to technology are more likely to opt for radical political change, we examine if robots shaped the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election. Pitching technology against a host of alternative explanations, including offshoring and trade exposure, we document that the support for Donald Trump was significantly higher in local labour markets more exposed to the adoption of robots. A counterfactual analysis based on our estimates shows that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin would have swung in favour of Hillary Clinton if the exposure to robots had not increased in the immediate years leading up to the election, leaving the Democrats with a majority in the Electoral College

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 minute ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I think it is less about the information and more about when the information is shared.  For a bunch of people Taxes were a little bit of a surprise in the amounts paid out, and hearing this information around the same time as a decently surprise bill would be "interesting."

 

Look, I don't want to discount the lived experience of actually have to write a check to the government, but again, I think this is a red herring.  Way back in February of 2018, the IRS put out a press release and warned people to adjust their withholding, including a calculator.  Some news outlets picked it up, but maybe not enough.  So, to say that this is interesting, when the availability of the calculator and withholding adjustment wasn't broadly reported, even though available is sort of....hypocritical?

Entirely separately, a system that encourages people to lend the federal government their hard earned money on an interest-free basis is broken.  It just is.  Now, the solution is to provide interest on all refunds (I'm ok with that).  But absent that, people "relying" on refunds basically for short term savings is DUMB and, particularly if those people are otherwise carrying credit card or mortgage debt really, really, dumb.  

[Guy Kilmore]

13 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Look, I don't want to discount the lived experience of actually have to write a check to the government, but again, I think this is a red herring.  Way back in February of 2018, the IRS put out a press release and warned people to adjust their withholding, including a calculator.  Some news outlets picked it up, but maybe not enough.  So, to say that this is interesting, when the availability of the calculator and withholding adjustment wasn't broadly reported, even though available is sort of....hypocritical?

Entirely separately, a system that encourages people to lend the federal government their hard earned money on an interest-free basis is broken.  It just is.  Now, the solution is to provide interest on all refunds (I'm ok with that).  But absent that, people "relying" on refunds basically for short term savings is DUMB and, particularly if those people are otherwise carrying credit card or mortgage debt really, really, dumb.  

Hey, I agree, that having a withholding is a money loser.  I'm not sure how anything here is hypocritical, I am basing my observation on how people get kind of complacent and some of these tax changes were rather big in ways that people just didn't grasp.  So instead of the usual it ended up being a surprise expense.  More people are probably paying attention now.  

(I used the calculator and something didn't come out quite right and ended up with owing more than what was predicted by a significant number.  Probably user error.)

[TheKitttenGuard]

10 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

Hey, I agree, that having a withholding is a money loser.  I'm not sure how anything here is hypocritical, I am basing my observation on how people get kind of complacent and some of these tax changes were rather big in ways that people just didn't grasp.  So instead of the usual it ended up being a surprise expense.  More people are probably paying attention now.  

(I used the calculator and something didn't come out quite right and ended up with owing more than what was predicted by a significant number.  Probably user error.)

No, there was a problem with the calculator which the IRS admitted to sometime back.

[Guy Kilmore]

1 minute ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

No, there was a problem with the calculator which the IRS admitted to sometime back.

Alright, well, I missed that then.

[Serious Callers Only]

...

[Mlle. Zabzie]

14 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

Alright, well, I missed that then.

Yes, and this is the reason why they aren't imposing penalties for underwithholding.  I still think that interest should be paid on refunds.  It is totally calculable.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Why is this a news story? 

Because people need to be aware of how unjust are taxation system is.

As to most of what I deleted, you’ve got to be more realistic. Average people simply don’t have the time to stay on top of tax law, and the ones that do mostly don’t understand it. Don’t expect much from people until they’ve demonstrated they’re worth trusting.

[Darth Richard II]

2 hours ago, Guy Kilmore said:

Sorry for the Double Post, I missed this.  I spent my youth in Fairport, NY

(And Sorry for being Off Topic.)

I'm pretty sure at this point there are only 200 or 300 people on the whole planet.

[lokisnow]

11 hours ago, DMC said:

This is insanely historically inaccurate.  The filibuster has existed in both chambers for the entirety of their existence.  It's as old as almost any parliamentary rule.  It wasn't really used policywise until recently.  You're right that LBJ's reign made them lower the threshold from 66 to 60, but that's about all that's accurate in the quoted. 

Damn, I was certain that the filibuster was invented in the post civil war era, 1890s ish was what I was recalling, and didn't bother to look it up.

[Kalbear]

12 hours ago, DMC said:

You don't know that.  And Dems have gotten more than 55 fairly recently.  Generally, I agree that the Dems are disadvantaged in the Senate.  But not in the Eeyore way you describe it. 

Dems got more than 55 after the worst economic event in 80 years. As I said, if your plan is to only pass sweeping legislation after massive disasters, I suspect you're gonna have a bad time. 

So no, I don't know that - but I can reasonably plan for that for the next 10 years or so given the map and the trendlines. 

12 hours ago, DMC said:

They haven't been able to functionally get rid of Obamacare, even with unified government.  And the congressional GOP leadership wants Trump to stop trying to do so.  So, no, this isn't an accurate depiction. 

The only reason they didn't get rid of the ACA was due to its popularity (oddly), not because they couldn't do it for some reason. Now, of course, they can't get it because the House would vote it down, so the argument is somewhat invalid. 

The congressional GOP leadership is toothless and will eventually go along with whatever Trump wants. 

12 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't know how to fix that.  But I do know that abolishing the filibuster will just exacerbate the problem. 

I think that ship has sailed, and we have functionally 11 years to get big things done in the US, or we have to consider dealing with things on a mitigation level instead. Anything that is a barrier to that needs to be removed. 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I sure hope not, I only lived their until 3.  I'm a late 70s baby, I know, but I don't think my parents were that reckless.

They were probably slathered in bad cheese when they conceived you.

[lokisnow]

2 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Entirely separately, a system that encourages people to lend the federal government their hard earned money on an interest-free basis is broken.  It just is.  Now, the solution is to provide interest on all refunds (I'm ok with that).  But absent that, people "relying" on refunds basically for short term savings is DUMB and, particularly if those people are otherwise carrying credit card or mortgage debt really, really, dumb.  

the system of refunds is culturally acceptable to me because our household has done enough planning to make sure our refund ought to be less than $2000 I don't really care about the lost opportunity cost of the $40/week. And the annual windfall is actually a very useful piece of our planning, for instance this year we're putting in a replacement sliding door. I would find it much more annoying and much less useful if it were ten times more accurate, and we only got a refund of $200.

And if the planned new w4 system (intended to minimize or eliminate refunds) are equivalent to filling out taxes (requiring a host of documentation and spousal participation to fill out the w4), the vast amount of time dedicated to filling out vastly more complicated w4 forms costs me far more in lost productivity than the newly minimized refunds. And since I fill out 3 to 8 w4s per year (work freelance for a handful of months at a time), this could add up to a fairly serious committment over the course of the year. I'd rather have a less perfect and more efficient system like we have have than the "perfect" new withholding system they're designing that requires a mountain of paperwork, extensive planning, disclosure of spousal income to employers, as well as co signatures to navigate.

 

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Dems got more than 55 after the worst economic event in 80 years. As I said, if your plan is to only pass sweeping legislation after massive disasters, I suspect you're gonna have a bad time. 

So no, I don't know that - but I can reasonably plan for that for the next 10 years or so given the map and the trendlines. 

The GOP had 55+ from 2005-2007, and 1997-2001.  The Dems had 55+ from 1987-1995, then all but two years from 1959-1981.  Point is it happens much more frequently than 60+ while still maintaining some semblance of a mandate (particularly if the party concurrently enjoys unified government, which obviously would be necessary to enact significant policy change).  You can reasonably plan for what's going to happen in politics for the next 10 years all you want, but you're almost certainly going to be wrong.  Nobody on earth can predict congressional party makeup over 10 years with any sort of credible confidence.

As for planning to pass sweeping legislation after "massive disasters," sweeping policy change is always predicated on recessions.  Stagflation brought us the Reagan revolution.  The early-nineties recession brought us Bill Clinton and the Gingrich Congress and all that entailed (welfare reform, bipartisan deregulation, etc.)  Even the Bush tax cuts were rather ironically (or I suppose just plain stupidly) passed during either the dot-com recession (2001) or Dubya's Iraq War (2003).  I'm honestly hard-pressed to think of any significant policy change in the modern era that wasn't the result of some kind of economic turmoil.  You could say the Civil Rights movement and mostly be right, but even the 64 CRA and 65 VRA (as well as LBJ's Great Society) were passed in the wake of Kennedy's assassination.  King was about to connect the CRM to the economy as he embarked on his War on Poverty, then he was promptly killed.  Hrm, how bout that?

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

I think that ship has sailed, and we have functionally 11 years to get big things done in the US, or we have to consider dealing with things on a mitigation level instead. Anything that is a barrier to that needs to be removed. 

I don't even really know what this means, let alone why you're so sure and exact about 11 years.

[Maithanet]

37 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't even really know what this means, let alone why you're so sure and exact about 11 years.

Climate change, I assume. 

[DMC]

5 hours ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I spent a large chunk of my youth around Fairport, NY and my dad's side of the family has roots in Hilton, NY.

I miss my Abbot's Custard.

Heh.  I swear it's weird how many people I've met that are from/have lived in Rochester (in Orlando, Tampa, Pittsburgh, DC, almost anywhere I've spent time in).  My advisor's husband grew up in Pittsford, she didn't even know I was from Rochester until she called to tell me I was accepted.

I always hear Abbot's Custard or, somewhat erroneously, Dinosaur Bar-B-Que.  I don't really like custard and I don't eat barbecue, so don't miss either (although my brother still imports Dinosaur sauce to this day, having moved from there 12 years ago).  People also often mention garbage plates, and I'm like really?  That wasn't special, it was crap.  It's just a smart way to give you a lot of crap when you're drunk because you'll eat anything.  Which, fair enough, but you can find that anywhere. 

So what do I miss the most?  Pontillos.  When I lived in Orlando the pizza was shit because it's very corporatized in general, so finding a good local place is a needle in a haystack.  Pittsburgh, or at least where I live and can order delivery, isn't much better.  Actually the only place nearby that was any good (still pretty average, my brother wouldn't eat it) recently went out of business.  Plus Pontillo's wings were just as good as their pizza.

[Guy Kilmore]

17 minutes ago, DMC said:

Heh.  I swear it's weird how many people I've met that are from/have lived in Rochester (in Orlando, Tampa, Pittsburgh, DC, almost anywhere I've spent time in).  My advisor's husband grew up in Pittsford, she didn't even know I was from Rochester until she called to tell me I was accepted.

I always hear Abbot's Custard or, somewhat erroneously, Dinosaur Bar-B-Que.  I don't really like custard and I don't eat barbecue, so don't miss either (although my brother still imports Dinosaur sauce to this day, having moved from there 12 years ago).  People also often mention garbage plates, and I'm like really?  That wasn't special, it was crap.  It's just a smart way to give you a lot of crap when you're drunk because you'll eat anything.  Which, fair enough, but you can find that anywhere. 

So what do I miss the most?  Pontillos.  When I lived in Orlando the pizza was shit because it's very corporatized in general, so finding a good local place is a needle in a haystack.  Pittsburgh, or at least where I live and can order delivery, isn't much better.  Actually the only place nearby that was any good (still pretty average, my brother wouldn't eat it) recently went out of business.  Plus Pontillo's wings were just as good as their pizza.

Pontillo's was great, I loved that place.  I was never a Bar-B-Que person either and I was a hard pass on garbage plates.

I also miss Mister Dominic's down by Charlotte beach, hands down some of the best American Italian I will ever have.  Shaller's Hamburgers is the thing I miss the most, my dad went to that place as a kid.

[Darth Richard II]

36 minutes ago, DMC said:

Heh.  I swear it's weird how many people I've met that are from/have lived in Rochester (in Orlando, Tampa, Pittsburgh, DC, almost anywhere I've spent time in).  My advisor's husband grew up in Pittsford, she didn't even know I was from Rochester until she called to tell me I was accepted.

I always hear Abbot's Custard or, somewhat erroneously, Dinosaur Bar-B-Que.  I don't really like custard and I don't eat barbecue, so don't miss either (although my brother still imports Dinosaur sauce to this day, having moved from there 12 years ago).  People also often mention garbage plates, and I'm like really?  That wasn't special, it was crap.  It's just a smart way to give you a lot of crap when you're drunk because you'll eat anything.  Which, fair enough, but you can find that anywhere. 

So what do I miss the most?  Pontillos.  When I lived in Orlando the pizza was shit because it's very corporatized in general, so finding a good local place is a needle in a haystack.  Pittsburgh, or at least where I live and can order delivery, isn't much better.  Actually the only place nearby that was any good (still pretty average, my brother wouldn't eat it) recently went out of business.  Plus Pontillo's wings were just as good as their pizza.

I don't get the garbage plate thing either and I've lived here my whole like(40ish years now...yikes).

It's nice to find people that I don't have to explain Wegmans to, though

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Darth Richard II said:

It's nice to find people that I don't have to explain Wegmans to, though

Yeah I've often discussed how weird it is that Wegmans doesn't have a store in Pittsburgh - even with people not remotely from Rochester.  They've expanded quite a bit, I don't get it.  Didn't matter much when I lived in Orlando.  Publix isn't as good but it's adequate.  But in Pittsburgh we gotta go to Giant Eagle (driving to the nearest Whole Foods would be quite the hassle), which sucks donkey balls.  (Feel like mentioning when I started typing donkey balls my Ipad suggests donkey balls.  Awesome.)