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Fragile Bird

US Politics: Don't Panic - Organize

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Honestly? Probably lower-information voters who like his association with Obama. 

On the association with Obama part I saw this column today.

But even this acknowledge how easy it would be to see this all change in time.  

 

 

ETA:  Shifting gears, is it not an enormous deal that Barr is opening an investigation into the FBI's investigation of Trump?  Every horrible thing is happening, drip drip drip...

Edited by Triskele

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reckless to disturb the investigation further--it opens the door to the unredacted report.

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Posted (edited)

The senate etc. may not be reading Mueller's report, redacted or not, but somebody is, as Mueller's report is #1, #2 and #3, on the NYT best seller lists; it's also #1 on amazilla.  There's a loooooooooooong wait list for it on the NYPL ebook programs, and all the hard / soft cover print editions too.

https://www.vox.com/culture/2019/5/18/18629326/mueller-report-top-three-slots-new-york-times-best-seller

Edited by Zorral

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8 hours ago, Zorral said:

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/opinion/joe-biden-president.html?

"The Democratic Party of 2019 does not look much like Joe Biden. Women, African-American, Latino and Asian voters are all much more likely to say they support Democratic candidates than Republican ones. White voters, male voters and especially white male voters generally support Republicans. 

Statistics on who votes Democratic also suggest that the Democratic Party is more diverse than the experts deciding who is electable."

Any time I read something like this I have to ask myself; is the author stupid or just dishonest?  In this case I think she's probably dishonest.  She couldn't be so stupid as to read statistics that badly, she's being way to selective.  White males cast as many votes for Democrats as black females and males did combined in the last election.  Blacks cast the most votes for Democrats of any minority.  Democrats biggest voting block is white women. Unless the argument is that only white women should be the nominee than this silly "doesn't look like the party" idea should be discarded.

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Posted (edited)
Quote

 

Even though Republicans claim they care about babies, they don’t do anything to leave them a better world by supporting the Green New Deal or any similar legislation. “The GOP doesn’t care about babies at all—especially brown, black, or poor ones,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote.
If they did, Republicans would “at LEAST have a real climate plan,” support healthcare, and “not stand for the death+caging of babies on our border.”

 To the GOP extremists trying to invoke “the unborn” to jail people for abortion: Where are you on climate change? OH right, you want to burn fossil fuels til there’s hell on Earth. If they were truthful about their motives, they’d be consistent in their principles. They’re not.


The GOP doesn’t care about babies at all - especially brown, black, or poor ones. If they did, they’d:
- cosponsor the Green New Deal or at LEAST have a real climate plan
- guarantee healthcare so ALL can get prenatal care
- not stand for the death+caging of babies on our border

This hypocrisy though is part of a pattern, Ocasio-Cortez said, adding that what “angers” her most about  “the GOP’s attempts to turn the United States into a far-right Christian theocracy is how dishonest they are about it.” At the very least, she noted, Republicans should be “forthright” about their “desire to subvert and dismantle our democracy into a creepy theological order led by a mad king.”

 

Ocasio-Cortez: Republicans Are Trying to Turn U.S. Into “Far-Right Christian Theocracy”

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/05/ocasio-cortez-republicans-republicans-far-right-christian-theocracy.html

 

Yeah, AOC looked like a real extremist. Until the Republicans decided that women need to carry the babies of their rapist for reasons.  This was such an insane radical idea that even the Republican House minority leader has disavowed it. Every Republican needs to be constantly asked if they support this medieval idea. 

Edited by Martell Spy

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Democrats biggest voting block is white women.

Link that proves this?

I've looked but haven't found that stated anywhere except from you.

Instead this is what I find:

https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/11/9/18075390/election-2018-midterms-white-women-voters

 

Quote

 

The majority of white women have not been part of a Democratic voting bloc throughout the 2000s.

While many white women and the majority of voters of color tend to vote more progressively, disaggregating these polls by race and gender reveals some hard truths about the potential for building a progressive coalition. White women and even Latinx voters of all genders continue to lag behind black voters — in particular black female voters — when it comes to showing up for Democrats.

 

 

Edited by Zorral

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2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Link that proves this?

I've looked but haven't found that stated anywhere except from you.

Instead this is what I find:

https://www.vox.com/first-person/2018/11/9/18075390/election-2018-midterms-white-women-voters

 

 

 

It's from the CNN exit polls of the 2018 midterm elections that were linked in the editorial: Exit Polls. 35% of voters were white males.  39% of those males voted Democrat (13.65% of voters overall). 11% of voters were black. 90% of them voted Democrat (9.90% of the electorate),   Overall 60% of voters who cast a ballot for Democrats were white.

 

Black women may be great at voting for Democrats but there isn't that many of them.

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57 minutes ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

It's from the CNN exit polls of the 2018 midterm elections

Why are you linking 2018 poll for the general election to argue a point about the 2020 Democratic primary electorate?

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Just now, DMC said:

Why are you linking 2018 poll for the general election to argue a point about the 2020 Democratic primary electorate?

Why are you so cold and distant? Don't you see the boy just wants your love!?! Dammit, DMC, be a father for once in your life!!!

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1 minute ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Why are you so cold and distant? Don't you see the boy just wants your love!?! Dammit, DMC, be a father for once in your life!!!

Venture around other threads.  Was just at a gathering in which I had to explain to way too many people why I don't want to be a father.

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14 minutes ago, DMC said:

Why are you linking 2018 poll for the general election to argue a point about the 2020 Democratic primary electorate?

Because it was linked to in the op-ed that we were discussing.

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44 minutes ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Because it was linked to in the op-ed that we were discussing.

Well then it seems an entirely farcical way to present evidence then, or at best just wholly incompetent.

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12 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well then it seems an entirely farcical way to present evidence then, or at best just wholly incompetent.

You'll remember that my first comment was questioning whether the op-ed writer was stupid or just dishonest.

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Who saw the Leslie Jones brilliant "Dracarys!" rant aimed at the old white guys in Alabama passing laws to control her body?  Whew -- she and her writers got a frackin' lot of productive, energetic momentum from the last scenes of both eps. 4 and 5 of Got.  Black woman about to be beheaded by a white force shouting to another white woman, burn the mf down all the way down and the white woman's dragon by gawd did it.

 

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6 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

You'll remember that my first comment was questioning whether the op-ed writer was stupid or just dishonest.

Perhaps the same question could be asked of you, based on your responses, particularly the incredibly racist and lame bit about there aren't that many black women who vote.  You know nothing about this country and who is getting things done everywhere to say such a stupid thing.

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30 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Perhaps the same question could be asked of you, based on your responses, particularly the incredibly racist and lame bit about there aren't that many black women who vote.  You know nothing about this country and who is getting things done everywhere to say such a stupid thing.

Or here’s a radical thought: black women can be really kickass at getting things done and be the most dependable Democratic voters, but not have the sheer numbers to decide a national presidential election. (What with African Americans making up roughly 12% of the population and, y’know not being a monolith, plus some who either don’t vote at all or are being disenfranchised from voting, etc.)

Not being needlessly insulting and rude is also an idea that might be worth embracing.

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6 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

You'll remember that my first comment was questioning whether the op-ed writer was stupid or just dishonest.

..K.  Your first comment concerning the op-ed you didn't like did indeed mention the midterm electorate in her piece, but that's not evident in the original issue you raised:

13 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

White males cast as many votes for Democrats as black females and males did combined in the last election.  Blacks cast the most votes for Democrats of any minority.  Democrats biggest voting block is white women. Unless the argument is that only white women should be the nominee than this silly "doesn't look like the party" idea should be discarded.

This strongly suggests your contention is about her interpretation of the primary electorate - which she did also mention quite a bit (and was clear about bringing up the contrast between the 2018 midterm electorate, btw).  In terms of attacking that op-ed because she's saying the Democratic electorate is getting more diverse?  That's actually reading the statistics perfectly fine, and there's no legitimate reason to criticize that point.  Again (I posted this links earlier in the week), In terms of trends, the Dem primary electorate IS becoming more diverse and educated, especially when you just focus on the early states:

Quote

The Democratic primary electorate is tilting more heavily toward minorities and well-educated whites, solidifying the dominance of women and experiencing reduced participation from blue-collar whites. (Though many political professionals believe that exit polls, before a recent shift in methodology, traditionally underestimated the share of whites without college degrees in the general election, some private analyses of primary trends by potential 2020 candidates show the same pattern.) [...]

African-American voters rose from 19% of the cumulative vote in the 2008 analysis to 24% in 2016, while Latinos fell from 12% to 9% (a result likely influenced by the omission of California). Black voters increased their share from 2008 to 2016 in four of the states CNN examined, while Latinos grew in six of them, most dramatically in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Georgia.

 

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24 minutes ago, DMC said:

especially when you just focus on the early states:

Sorry for the double post.  I started ETA'ing this put I think it deserves it's own post:  

To clarify what I mean by "early states," I was referring to the data that CNN article provided.  They included Nevada and South Carolina - no one is arguing that Iowa and NH aren't still almost entirely white - at the top to emphasize why the increasing diversity is important.  And from 2008 to 2016, the nonwhite vote went from 35 to 41 in Nevada and 57 to 65 in South Carolina.  So clearly it's becoming increasingly important to appeal to diversity.  Then, in the states they provided data on, there are three states that will (at this time) be a part of Super Tuesday in 2020 after the first four contests:  North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia.  Texas had a 57% nonwhite vote in 2016.  North Carolina and Virginia had 38 and 37, respectively. 

That's without mentioning Alabama (which almost certainly has a minority-majority nonwhite Dem primary electorate as well), Arkansas, Tennessee, and California.  That's a huge ass chunk of Super Tuesday when you put all 7 states together.  And combined with Nevada and South Carolina, it makes it perfectly clear how important the nonwhite vote is.

So just as a general rule here, when people say the primary electorate is growing more diverse and that needs to be emphasized, it's not about "identity politics" or ignoring the unrelenting importance of "low information whites."  It's about properly reading statistics.  

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19 hours ago, DMC said:

It's not deluding oneself to to be suspect of polls this early, and it's perfectly fine to point to name recognition.  I'd venture to say suggesting it points to "people really [wanting] Biden" is a far more delusional statement.

I think it's perfectly reasonable to frame that people  DO really want Biden right now. They really wanted Clinton in 2008 as well. Then Obama showed he could actually, ya know, win, and all of a sudden people changed their views.

Both things can be true - Biden can be wanted by almost a majority of voters right now, and Biden may not be the eventual nominee. 

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