US Politics: Wondering the Acosta

[Jace, Extat]

9 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

It was on Ted Lieu's twitter, quick look see.s to confirm it, going through MI results now by district for 2008-2016.  Interesting is that the trends for +/- D/R by district seem to transcend rural/urban.  Like even though urban districts went Dem and rural GOP there were was a big swing back to Dems made big pickups (and still lost) in rural districts.

Obviously WI is the toughest, and I'd imagine where there will be the most voter suppression and meddling attempts.  

Might be a good place to throw some $:

 

 

How 'bout that? Pennsylvania was won walking away for both. Michigan was a definitive victory but too close for comfort in the Senate. But the Wisconsin Governorship was, to paraphrase the Duke of Wellington, a damn near-run thing. I recall thinking Walker was gonna win while the votes were being counted.

[Larry of the Lawn]

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/black-and-latino-turnout-helped-defeat-scott-walker/575818/

Might be that courting those slightly racist voters isn't the best way or only way to pick up those states.  Maybe just massive gotv push

[Jace, Extat]

2 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/black-and-latino-turnout-helped-defeat-scott-walker/575818/

Might be that courting those slightly racist voters isn't the best way or only way to pick up those states.  Maybe just massive gotv push

That's a fair statement in this instance, but I was talking about states like NC, GA, Montana, and the like.

[Larry of the Lawn]

5 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

That's a fair statement in this instance, but I was talking about states like NC, GA, Montana, and the like.

Gotcha

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, larrytheimp said:

Gotcha

For further ironing out of my position, I'll say that I don't actually want Democrats to turn their backs on appealing to minorities. White women aren't really a minority, but I have a soul (much as I try to deny it) and don't want people left out of the coalition. But I get discouraged when I see the national candidates act like they're running in just liberal states or states where there's a lot of diversity. Some places are just full of whities, or mostly white people and the black folks have been effectively stripped of their abilities to vote. We can't win in those places with "Healthcare for all! Including the undocumenteds!" showing loud and proud. The Senate and Governor candidates need to be able to suggest they wouldn't do something like that without risking alienating excited young liberals who want the whole pie. Or better yet, I'd like them to just get to avoid the question altogether, which is why I got so angry at MSNBC for pushing a weirdly specific, hard-to-explain, and previously unmentioned idea on the candidates in the first place. And even though it's monstrously unfair, we need votes from people who won't like that idea to get the Senate back. Let alone a shot at the super-majority.

[DMC]

47 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

But the Wisconsin Governorship was, to paraphrase the Duke of Wellington, a damn near-run thing. I recall thinking Walker was gonna win while the votes were being counted.

Walker was the only incumbent in any of the gubernatorial contests.  Or, come to think of it, any of the statewide contests in those three states.  He survived a lot during his tenure, so I wouldn't be too worried about that margin specifically.  Those are still the states to focus on.  If NC, AZ, TX, GA, or Montana and the like are competitive for the Democratic candidate, we've already won.

[Jace, Extat]

6 minutes ago, DMC said:

Walker was the only incumbent in any of the gubernatorial contests.  Or, come to think of it, any of the statewide contests in those three states.  He survived a lot during his tenure, so I wouldn't be too worried about that margin specifically.  Those are still the states to focus on.  If NC, AZ, TX, GA, or Montana and the like are competitive for the Democratic candidate, we've already won.

Won the presidency, sure. But I want a government that can somewhat function for a few years.

[Bonnot OG]

1 hour ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Won the presidency, sure. But I want a government that can somewhat function for a few years.

Well that would require abolishing the entire GOP. Also kicking out the Pelosi, Schumer’s and Manchins our of the Democratic Party and making sure they don’t have an ounce of power. 

[Jace, Extat]

2 minutes ago, Bonnot OG said:

Well that would require abolishing the entire GOP. Also kicking out the Pelosi, Schumer’s and Manchins our of the Democratic Party and making sure they don’t have an ounce of power. 

Broski, I like you. But I also live in the real world where expectations have to be managed.

[Bonnot OG]

Just now, Jace, Basilissa said:

Broski, I like you. But I also live in the real world where expectations have to be managed.

Oh I don’t think it’s a realistic scenario, just like i don’t think we’ll ever have a somewhat functioning government in place for a few years.

[Gertrude]

13 hours ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I think that's an unfair take. Climate change will end our civilization as we know it, but it is not going to be the end of humanity. And humanity will always build new civilizations. At some point action will be taken and lessons will have been learned.

The question is not whether climate change is going to eradicate our species. It's how many billions will die as a direct result before permanent and appropriate actions become standard practice of every major state.

And then a few more billion will die after that as the crisis is grappled with and eventually wrestled under control.

See? Bright side!

Am I a bad person if I don't see that as a huge problem in the very big picture? The Black Plague destroyed the population of Europe but even it had some positive effects on the economy and societal structure in it's aftermath. As you said, it won't be the end of the world, just the world as we know it.

Obviously the suffering on a human level and the damage to the ecology is not so easily discounted. The part of me that thinks 'is it so bad?' is a very, very small voice in the back of my head, but it's still there. And of course it won't effect me so it's all good (that last was sarcasm, just to be clear)

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Not getting dragged into a discussion about morality - it's overrated anyway.

Anyway...

With Louisiana about to get hit by the biggest storm since Katrina, and given how inept G.W. Bush reaction and public statements were, is there anybody else looking forward to the current incumbents reaction with a mix of curiosity, horror, and despair?

I mean, it's certainly gonna be... interesting.

[Jace, Extat]

1 minute ago, Gertrude said:

Am I a bad person if I don't see that as a huge problem in the very big picture? The Black Plague destroyed the population of Europe but even it had some positive effects on the economy and societal structure in it's aftermath. As you said, it won't be the end of the world, just the world as we know it.

Obviously the suffering on a human level and the damage to the ecology is not so easily discounted. The part of me that thinks 'is it so bad?' is a very, very small voice in the back of my head, but it's still there. And of course it won't effect me so it's all good (that last was sarcasm, just to be clear)

This is a healthy response, I think. To recognize that what is coming will be unthinkably horrible, but that it isn't an actual apocalypse. No more than Adolph Hitler was an apocalypse if you didn't live in Europe or the East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere was an apocalypse if you weren't living in, well, East Asia. The moon didn't just explode, there's no Hard Rain on its way, the aliens aren't coming to exterminate us (yet). Humans will retain the ability to react to what we've wrought. That's a good thing. We will be forced to evolve again as a species at the societal level.

It's gonna be brutal, and billions-with-a-B of people will die. But when you consider that there are too many humans for this planet to properly support already... well nobody ever accused arithmetic of being compassionate and it's our own damn faults for letting it get to this point in the first place.

That's why I do what I can to be reasonably environmentally conscious (not gonna stop flying or eating meat, but I can do basic stuff) and I'm gonna do my best to enjoy the world before it gets unbearable.

I think it's sick and disgustingly selfish to have children and subject to them to lives that will be... just not particularly nice. But lots of humans can't overcome the most basic impulse inherent to every living organism so I'm not worried about the survivability of the species at all.

[Jace, Extat]

12 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Climate Despair is Making People Give Up on Life

 

 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Triskele said:

The immigration issue is overrated and Dems may have moved too far left say Latino Americans. (WaPo, limited clicks)  

Quote

 

On Friday, League of United Latin American Citizens (LULAC) members added another event to their convention agenda: A march to the local office of Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who had declined their request to meet while they were in town.

The protesters delivered dolls in cages to Johnson, the chairman of the Senate Homeland Security Committee, whose panel has oversight responsibility for the agencies that are carrying out the border detention program.

But when four Democratic presidential contenders appeared at a LULAC forum the night before, the majority of questions they were asked had nothing to do with any of this. The topics were culled from submissions by 3,300 LULAC members and reflected the full spectrum of the concerns that shape their daily lives. ...

 

First -- this datelined Milwaukee.

Second -- the bolded.

Considering how all this is currently, like RIGHT THIS VERY MINUTE, is playing out among the Latinx communities right here, and in the streets in nearly 90 degree heat, I find the assertion dubious.  Nor doest the writer come from the midwest and neither does she speak Spanish.

As we all know way to well, local Dem orgs and committees are fairly controlled all too often by old white people, and  have their own way of dealing with issues -- and don't like to be challenged or differed with, at all.  See: Pelosi and Co doing their best to destroy AOC and Company.

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Triskele said:

The immigration issue is overrated and Dems may have moved too far left say Latino Americans. (WaPo, limited clicks)  

What would you like to see happen?  What's type of immigration policy do you think would be acceptable?  

I really don't see how these camps and detention centers are overrated.  It's a problem that has to be addressed and there's no way someone is going to be able to run a campaign that skirts the issue.

[Jace, Extat]

Just now, larrytheimp said:

What would you like to see happen?  What's type of immigration policy do you think would be acceptable?  

I really don't see how these camps and detention centers are overrated.  It's a problem that has to be addressed and there's no way someone is going to be able to run a campaign that skirts the issue.

That isn't the point of the article. It's that the response shouldn't be "healthcare for non-citizens" when a shitload of citizens don't have healthcare themselves. It's basic selfishness that is an inherent part of human reactions. Ignoring it is stupid and self-defeating.

Let's look at it from a basic cost-benefit analysis. Democrats get almost 70 percent of Latino votes... why are we opening ourselves to attacks chasing a demographic that is already ours? Do you really think that promising healthcare for illegal immigrants is going to woo the kind of Latino voters who broke for Trump? It just don't make no sense, playa! I used to live in Texas, man. You'd be surprised how many Hispanic folks hate and sneer at undocumented immigrants, because they feel like they get a bad rap by association of skin color.

[Larry of the Lawn]

3 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

That isn't the point of the article. It's that the response shouldn't be "healthcare for non-citizens" when a shitload of citizens don't have healthcare themselves. It's basic selfishness that is an inherent part of human reactions. Ignoring it is stupid and self-defeating.

Let's look at it from a basic cost-benefit analysis. Democrats get almost 70 percent of Latino votes... why are we opening ourselves to attacks chasing a demographic that is already ours? Do you really think that promising healthcare for illegal immigrants is going to woo the kind of Latino voters who broke for Trump? It just don't make no sense, playa! I used to live in Texas, man. You'd be surprised how many Hispanic folks hate and sneer at undocumented immigrants, because they feel like they get a bad rap by association of skin color.

Again, not what I asked.  I'm asking what Trisk thinks is a reasonable way to handle what's going on considering all that 

[Larry of the Lawn]

Like, do we let all asylum seekers free until their hearing, if they aren't wanted for a crime?  Do we build bigger and more 'comfortable' detention centers?  Because it's one thing to say 'Trump is fucking the dog on this one' but I'd imagine in that case you'd want to have an alternative.

[Jace, Extat]

11 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Like, do we let all asylum seekers free until their hearing, if they aren't wanted for a crime?  Do we build bigger and more 'comfortable' detention centers?  Because it's one thing to say 'Trump is fucking the dog on this one' but I'd imagine in that case you'd want to have an alternative.

Actually, the impetus is not on Democrats to solve the problem. It's to paint Republicans as responsible.