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Fragile Bird

US Politics: Money, Money, Money Makes the World Go Round

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@DMC yeah that one wasn't really directed at you, not only have you made it clear you'll support him if he wins the nomination, you've already made it clear you're factoring in his primary success when assessing his potential general election performance.

I don't expect anyone to change their support in the primary, but I do think you need to at least reassess your preferred candidates chances when they've failed to convince the Dem base in the primaries. If one of the moderates was consistently the second choice for the rest of the field then that might hold more weight but it's really just a mess. For some of them it will just boil down to "the timing is wrong" although I suspect the ones who believe that about themselves are the ones that have already dropped. 

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2 minutes ago, karaddin said:

For some of them it will just boil down to "the timing is wrong" although I suspect the ones who believe that about themselves are the ones that have already dropped.

Yup.

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11 minutes ago, karaddin said:

@DMC yeah that one wasn't really directed at you, not only have you made it clear you'll support him if he wins the nomination, you've already made it clear you're factoring in his primary success when assessing his potential general election performance.

I don't expect anyone to change their support in the primary, but I do think you need to at least reassess your preferred candidates chances when they've failed to convince the Dem base in the primaries. If one of the moderates was consistently the second choice for the rest of the field then that might hold more weight but it's really just a mess. For some of them it will just boil down to "the timing is wrong" although I suspect the ones who believe that about themselves are the ones that have already dropped. 

I find this most head scratching--that there is no clear preferred moderate, yet people assume if all the moderates but one dropped out, the one left would get all those votes. Because there is no consensus about those candidates, it stands to reason that many people could go to Bernie as easily as anyone else. A lot of people around here claim the politics of the moderate candidates are actually very progressive, so...if a bunch dropped out tomorrow, it could create a challenge for Bernie, or Bernie could run even further ahead. 

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8 minutes ago, Simon Steele said:

that there is no clear preferred moderate, yet people assume if all the moderates but one dropped out, the one left would get all those votes. Because there is no consensus about those candidates, it stands to reason that many people could go to Bernie as easily as anyone else. A lot of people around here claim the politics of the moderate candidates are actually very progressive, so...if a bunch dropped out tomorrow, it could create a challenge for Bernie, or Bernie could run even further ahead. 

If everybody but one dropped out, sure, Bernie would definitely get a significant portion of that.  But a majority?  Very unlikely based on the combined second/third choices of most of those candidates.  Plus there's the added value of having a one-on-one matchup with Sanders, which Sanders himself benefitted from being the sole challenger to Clinton last cycle.  That's impossible to anticipate, but could be quite significant.  Sanders would still be the frontrunner, but his chances would be far less certain. 

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judging from the Nevada results posted by Kalbear, the Democratic establishment should be in full panic mode...

 

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I think one thing we can say is that the attack on M4A that Unions are afraid of losing the healthcare they have is not as potent an attack as they had hoped. It really felt like the establishment really thought they had found the attack line that would slow Bernie's roll, but in a strongly union state it feel flat even with union leadership banging that drum.

As far as the results as they stand now, it shows that Amy in NH was probably an aberration, Pete takes a beating since his entire argument is predicated on him doing well in two incredibly white states. Biden is looking ok so far as more returns come in, but South Carolina will be where we learn if he is actually going to be a contender, or just a paper tiger. It gives me no pleasure to say this because I do really like her, but I think that Warren is done, even a strong debate performance didn't really move the needle in Nevada.

 

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From exit polls, Bernie won a plurality with self-described moderates (23% -- more than any single moderate candidate) and conservative Democrats.  Perhaps some moderates and conservatives prefer a movement-funded socialist over anyone corporate-funded.  People are sick of money buying legislation to order.

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This delay is being caused, once again, by this 'three sets of votes' bullshit. That was the demand of Sanders, wasn't it? Because Clinton didn't really beat him in Iowa. Don't give me any any crap about how the DNC is soooo unfair to Bernie.

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I think this puts the speculation that Sanders only appeals to white, male voters to rest. He did extremely well among all demographics, and even among moderate and conservative Democrats.

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He got 40%. Let's not make it seem like some crazy big win. 

But yes, in general he will get more support from everyone simply because he is the front runner. 

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3 hours ago, GrimTuesday said:

I think one thing we can say is that the attack on M4A that Unions are afraid of losing the healthcare they have is not as potent an attack as they had hoped. It really felt like the establishment really thought they had found the attack line that would slow Bernie's roll, but in a strongly union state it feel flat even with union leadership banging that drum.

As far as the results as they stand now, it shows that Amy in NH was probably an aberration, Pete takes a beating since his entire argument is predicated on him doing well in two incredibly white states. Biden is looking ok so far as more returns come in, but South Carolina will be where we learn if he is actually going to be a contender, or just a paper tiger. It gives me no pleasure to say this because I do really like her, but I think that Warren is done, even a strong debate performance didn't really move the needle in Nevada.

 

The thing is that many of those union workers are having to forego $500 a week in wages from from their compensation packages to have that pricey ass healthcare. I know very well because I used to be one of those workers. I resented the hell out of the cost and spent many a night wishing I could have the even half the money either on my check or towards my pension.

Do you think I fealt threatened by having that system changed? No way was I happy dragging around a $12 an hour legacy cost towards that HC. It has, was, and is exhorbitantly overpriced HC and they are a lot of trades people are sick of it and would rather have more of that money in wages and retirement bennies.

Even here in Wisconsin my HC is $20,000 a year and I feel similar, it's like dragging around a $10 an hour job and not seeing a nickel of it. It's not really fair to employers or employees HC costs are sucking up all our raises .

As a lifelong union member I've NEVER been afraid of losing my "Cadillac" coverage, ive always resented (been sickened) how much of my overall compensation it sucked up.

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6 hours ago, Triskele said:

 Even if one isn't a Sanders fan isn't the brokered convention a potential disaster?

To ask:  is there not a case that's developing that one wants Sanders to wrap this up quickly so that it doesn't go there?  I'm starting to think that I could justify a vote for Sanders in the California Super Tuesday primary on these grounds alone.  

A brokered convention appeals to three types of people:

(1) People who want Trump re-elected.

(2) Extreme anti-Sanders Democrats who would prefer to keep control of the losing side than lose control of a (potentially) winning side.

(3) Sad political geeks, who just want to see a brokered convention in their lifetime.

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Bloomberg's effect on the down ballot races is going to be devastating, since he is sucking up all the staff, as well as telling other donors to sit this cycle out.

 

Edited by SpaceChampion

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If Sanders is the nominee (as it looks like he will be) then I think the only chance he has of beating Trump is if the economy tanks in the next 8 months. If a financial crisis happens again, and there is great public anger at big banks and evil corporations that were enabled (and maybe even subsequently bailed out) by the Trump administration, then Sanders might be able to harness that energy to ride his way to a win.

But outside of that scenario, I don't see Sanders being able to make the pivot to winning a general election.

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25 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

(2) Extreme anti-Sanders Democrats who would prefer to keep control of the losing side than lose control of a (potentially) winning side.

Ahum, why do I have to think about you on the blessings of Jeremy in the UK politics thread.

Yes, I know off topic, and sincere apologies for the general audience, but I couldn't resist.

Anyway, on substance I agree. A brokered convention is the last thing the Democrats want to do. As that is as big a vote loser as it gets.

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Remember the phenomenon of our time, moderate Dems:  Negative partisanship

If Bernie causes you anxiety embrace how much control you have over the situation where you can go and cast a vote against Trump.  

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So, Bloomberg jumping in on Super Tuesday is potentially great for Bernie, right?  I mean I assume pretty much all the candidates can stick it out for 10 more days.  Bloomberg will dilute the moderate lane.  Because of the 15% viability rule Bloomberg stands an excellent chance at dragging follow moderates below the viability threshold.  We could see states giving 100% of delegates to Bernie because no moderate is able to hit 15%.

 

 

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