The Nights Watch Decline Doesn't Make Sense

[Floki of the Ironborn]

The story we get is that the Night's Watch was formed after the Others were defeated and driven into the Far North. The Night's Watch was an honourable organization with a mission to defend the Seven Kingdoms from the wildlings and worse. We learn that the Night's Watch was very populous and firmly established prior to the Targaryen conquest. There were 10,000 members of the Nights' Watch when Aegon invaded and became king. From then on, the numbers of the Nights' Watch was dwindling so badly that around 300 years later, there's barely 1000 members keeping a skeletal watch on the Wall. 

Now, the main reason I've heard for this steep decline is because of all the wars in Westeros during the pre-Targaryen days were providing ample prisoners who could choose the Wall instead of execution. Therefore, the peaceful Targaryen dynasty resulted in fewer men needing to go north. This also implies that the Nights' Watch's numbers were mainly being bolstered by men who had no choice. I don't believe they ever say when Westerosi people stopped believing in the Others, but either way, it's been a lot of prisoners being taken north to the Wall. 

My problem with that above scenario is that it should have been virtually impossible to get to the Wall.

Since they can't fly, the only way people can get to the Wall is by land and by sea. This means that the prisoners are in little boats that easily sink in storms along the coast of Westeros. We hear about it constantly, even the Ironborn lose ships in stormy water. For every ship that does make it all the way to the North, who knows how many boats didn't make it. Plus the North presumably won't like the idea of southrons constantly sailing back and forth to hand off captive kings like those Dornish ones, or the many knights and Andals who'd consider themselves far above these primitive First Men.

And by land, it's even more incredible of a journey. There's no Kingsroad, and depending on where you're coming from, you're travelling across multiple kingdoms who are presumably hostile to you, dragging along prisoners who could overpower you during an attack from local robbers or something... okay, the point is more that so much can and would go wrong, and that's before even mentioning crossing the Neck without the Kingsroad, and without the crannogmen having any reason not to kill you on sight. Moat Cailin would be waiting for you, and even if you persuaded the Northmen that you're delivering men to the Nights' Watch, you still have to cross all the way up to the Wall. How many men would be willing to make either one of those hazardous journeys just to hand off a bunch of enemy warriors and dangerous criminals who didn't want execution or maiming??

If anything, the conquering of Westeros should have been the best thing to ever happen to the Nights' Watch. This means a huge influx of recruits because it's so much easier to get there. There's no constant infighting between the regions, so overland travel is better, on roads which lead you all the way north to the Wall, there's fewer hostile people to deal with if you're sailing, multiple ports you can stop by in during your long voyage, and don't tell me that the Targaryens were that much more peaceful. Lots of crime still happened, the wars were still producing prisoners, it should have resulted in the Nights' Watch's numbers swelling, not plummeting. The only way it makes sense is if the belief in the Others only stopped when the dragons showed up, so it wasn't considered honourable to serve at the Wall anymore once Aegon was crowned. But that doesn't make sense either. Aegon and the Others weren't correlated at all, so one shouldn't influence people's views on the other.

[James Steller]

You’re underestimating the North’s respect for the Wall. That request is basically a passcode to a Northman who wants to kill you. Cregan Stark was ready to send over ten thousand Northmen against Storm’s End and Oldtown and Casterly Rock, but he’s cool with sparing the murderers of the king (the guys he was ready to cross hell to kill) because they say they want to go north. Granted, that doesn’t mean the crannogmen will be any less hostile, but at least if you sailed up to White Harbour and explained yourself, they’d probably thank you and promise to take the prisoners north themselves. I bet the Nights Watch could have set up an office in the city for all the prisoners sailing into the harbour!

[Floki of the Ironborn]

2 minutes ago, James Steller said:

 I bet the Nights Watch could have set up an office in the city for all the prisoners sailing into the harbour!

That sounds like a light-hearted Dunk & Egg style spinoff about the Nights' Watch brothers who landed the cushy job in White Harbour bringing prisoners off the ships, dealing with ordinary problems living in White Harbour, having minor adventures which humanize and characterize the North.

 

[Brandon Ice-Eyes]

11 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

The story we get is that the Night's Watch was formed after the Others were defeated and driven into the Far North. The Night's Watch was an honourable organization with a mission to defend the Seven Kingdoms from the wildlings and worse. We learn that the Night's Watch was very populous and firmly established prior to the Targaryen conquest. There were 10,000 members of the Nights' Watch when Aegon invaded and became king. From then on, the numbers of the Nights' Watch was dwindling so badly that around 300 years later, there's barely 1000 members keeping a skeletal watch on the Wall. 

Now, the main reason I've heard for this steep decline is because of all the wars in Westeros during the pre-Targaryen days were providing ample prisoners who could choose the Wall instead of execution. Therefore, the peaceful Targaryen dynasty resulted in fewer men needing to go north. This also implies that the Nights' Watch's numbers were mainly being bolstered by men who had no choice. I don't believe they ever say when Westerosi people stopped believing in the Others, but either way, it's been a lot of prisoners being taken north to the Wall. 

My problem with that above scenario is that it should have been virtually impossible to get to the Wall.

Since they can't fly, the only way people can get to the Wall is by land and by sea. This means that the prisoners are in little boats that easily sink in storms along the coast of Westeros. We hear about it constantly, even the Ironborn lose ships in stormy water. For every ship that does make it all the way to the North, who knows how many boats didn't make it. Plus the North presumably won't like the idea of southrons constantly sailing back and forth to hand off captive kings like those Dornish ones, or the many knights and Andals who'd consider themselves far above these primitive First Men.

And by land, it's even more incredible of a journey. There's no Kingsroad, and depending on where you're coming from, you're travelling across multiple kingdoms who are presumably hostile to you, dragging along prisoners who could overpower you during an attack from local robbers or something... okay, the point is more that so much can and would go wrong, and that's before even mentioning crossing the Neck without the Kingsroad, and without the crannogmen having any reason not to kill you on sight. Moat Cailin would be waiting for you, and even if you persuaded the Northmen that you're delivering men to the Nights' Watch, you still have to cross all the way up to the Wall. How many men would be willing to make either one of those hazardous journeys just to hand off a bunch of enemy warriors and dangerous criminals who didn't want execution or maiming??

If anything, the conquering of Westeros should have been the best thing to ever happen to the Nights' Watch. This means a huge influx of recruits because it's so much easier to get there. There's no constant infighting between the regions, so overland travel is better, on roads which lead you all the way north to the Wall, there's fewer hostile people to deal with if you're sailing, multiple ports you can stop by in during your long voyage, and don't tell me that the Targaryens were that much more peaceful. Lots of crime still happened, the wars were still producing prisoners, it should have resulted in the Nights' Watch's numbers swelling, not plummeting. The only way it makes sense is if the belief in the Others only stopped when the dragons showed up, so it wasn't considered honourable to serve at the Wall anymore once Aegon was crowned. But that doesn't make sense either. Aegon and the Others weren't correlated at all, so one shouldn't influence people's views on the other.

Pretty simple answer - you're just not very smart. Less wars meant more prisoners and House Stark would have gladly let prisoners travel through The North to reach The Nights Watch so long as they're closely watched? Duh?

When Aegon conquered Westeros they were less wars and so less prisoners and thus less people at The Night's Watch? Add mismanagement from previous Lord Commanders and you have a recipe for a steep and rough decline. Hopefully you understood all this!

[Rufus Snow]

There's no real reason to expect huge variations in the numbers of available prisoners over the lifetime of the Wall and Night's Watch. There'll be a few ups and downs, but by and large both criminal prisoners and prisoners of war will always be around.

What DOES vary greatly though is the number of VOLUNTEERS the NW can attract. Whilst the threat of the Others was still remembered, and whilst the NW was regarded with honour throughout the 100K / 7K, a lot more knights and younger sons would be volunteering, as it was still seen as an honourable thing to do. As that subsided over the years there'd be fewer volunteers and more reliance on pressing watchmen instead. The more reliance there was on prisoners, the less 'honourable' the NW would appear, so there'd be a vicious circle of declining recruitment. The Shieldhall shows us that - where once there had been hundreds of knights' shields, there were hardly any left.

The VOLUNTEERS stopped coming by and large - there were only a few Northern houses who still had enough respect for the Watch to still send men voluntarily, plus a few southrons who used it as a dumping ground, like the Tarlys - and that's a process that would only accelerate over the generations. So actually, the decline DOES make sense.

[John Suburbs]

13 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

The story we get is that the Night's Watch was formed after the Others were defeated and driven into the Far North. The Night's Watch was an honourable organization with a mission to defend the Seven Kingdoms from the wildlings and worse. We learn that the Night's Watch was very populous and firmly established prior to the Targaryen conquest. There were 10,000 members of the Nights' Watch when Aegon invaded and became king. From then on, the numbers of the Nights' Watch was dwindling so badly that around 300 years later, there's barely 1000 members keeping a skeletal watch on the Wall. 

Now, the main reason I've heard for this steep decline is because of all the wars in Westeros during the pre-Targaryen days were providing ample prisoners who could choose the Wall instead of execution. Therefore, the peaceful Targaryen dynasty resulted in fewer men needing to go north. This also implies that the Nights' Watch's numbers were mainly being bolstered by men who had no choice. I don't believe they ever say when Westerosi people stopped believing in the Others, but either way, it's been a lot of prisoners being taken north to the Wall. 

My problem with that above scenario is that it should have been virtually impossible to get to the Wall.

Since they can't fly, the only way people can get to the Wall is by land and by sea. This means that the prisoners are in little boats that easily sink in storms along the coast of Westeros. We hear about it constantly, even the Ironborn lose ships in stormy water. For every ship that does make it all the way to the North, who knows how many boats didn't make it. Plus the North presumably won't like the idea of southrons constantly sailing back and forth to hand off captive kings like those Dornish ones, or the many knights and Andals who'd consider themselves far above these primitive First Men.

And by land, it's even more incredible of a journey. There's no Kingsroad, and depending on where you're coming from, you're travelling across multiple kingdoms who are presumably hostile to you, dragging along prisoners who could overpower you during an attack from local robbers or something... okay, the point is more that so much can and would go wrong, and that's before even mentioning crossing the Neck without the Kingsroad, and without the crannogmen having any reason not to kill you on sight. Moat Cailin would be waiting for you, and even if you persuaded the Northmen that you're delivering men to the Nights' Watch, you still have to cross all the way up to the Wall. How many men would be willing to make either one of those hazardous journeys just to hand off a bunch of enemy warriors and dangerous criminals who didn't want execution or maiming??

If anything, the conquering of Westeros should have been the best thing to ever happen to the Nights' Watch. This means a huge influx of recruits because it's so much easier to get there. There's no constant infighting between the regions, so overland travel is better, on roads which lead you all the way north to the Wall, there's fewer hostile people to deal with if you're sailing, multiple ports you can stop by in during your long voyage, and don't tell me that the Targaryens were that much more peaceful. Lots of crime still happened, the wars were still producing prisoners, it should have resulted in the Nights' Watch's numbers swelling, not plummeting. The only way it makes sense is if the belief in the Others only stopped when the dragons showed up, so it wasn't considered honourable to serve at the Wall anymore once Aegon was crowned. But that doesn't make sense either. Aegon and the Others weren't correlated at all, so one shouldn't influence people's views on the other.

Defeated soldiers would not be just let go with a promise to meander their way up to the Wall at their leisure. They would be marched, under guard, and delivered to Castle Black for training and reassignment. Leaving the Wall before they take their vows means they are executed as PoWs (and that's if these southrons could even survive the north, especially in winter), while leaving afterward gets them executed as deserters.  But why leave? Sure, it's cold, but you get three squares a day, a warm bed, the occasional woman, and only the rangers have to put their lives on the line, and even then only to a bunch of rock-throwing wildlings. So all in all, it's not a bad deal, considering the alternative is death.

[James Steller]

6 hours ago, Brandon Ice-Eyes said:

Pretty simple answer - you're just not very smart. Less wars meant more prisoners and House Stark would have gladly let prisoners travel through The North to reach The Nights Watch so long as they're closely watched? Duh?

When Aegon conquered Westeros they were less wars and so less prisoners and thus less people at The Night's Watch? Add mismanagement from previous Lord Commanders and you have a recipe for a steep and rough decline. Hopefully you understood all this!

No need to be a dick. You’re just making yourself look like a bully.

[Lord Lannister]

7 hours ago, Brandon Ice-Eyes said:

Pretty simple answer - you're just not very smart. Less wars meant more prisoners and House Stark would have gladly let prisoners travel through The North to reach The Nights Watch so long as they're closely watched? Duh?

When Aegon conquered Westeros they were less wars and so less prisoners and thus less people at The Night's Watch? Add mismanagement from previous Lord Commanders and you have a recipe for a steep and rough decline. Hopefully you understood all this!

If you're going to be a jerk and impugn someone's intelligence, you might try some basic proofreading before you hit submit reply. "Less wars meant more prisoners" indeed.

[Rufus Snow]

12 hours ago, Brandon Ice-Eyes said:

Less wars meant more prisoners

Less, less, LESS???? I think you mean FEWER!

 

5 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

If you're going to be a jerk and impugn someone's intelligence, you might try some basic proofreading before you hit submit reply. "Less wars meant more prisoners" indeed.

Sorry, some things just bring out my grammar-nazi and just hinting just ain't enough.... (although I'll forgive all second-language users....) Ah, sheesh, where are my meds????

[Tyrion1991]

It doesn’t make any sense. 

The Wall represents the Kingdoms only land border. One which is regularly raided by hostile tribes and which can assemble huge hosts. There should be forces permanently garrisoned on that frontier similar to the Roman Empire on the Rhine or Danube. 

Even if you argue that the South completely doesn’t care if the Kingdom is invaded, surely the North would because, again, it’s their border.

Money is never described as an obstacle. It’s inferred that the North and South could easily sustain these garrisons given the Watches former size. 

Now, I don’t think it’s reasonable that I’m peacetime and a time of prosperity the frontier would be so stripped of resources. 

Plus, plenty of Early Modern Societies operated impressed labour, impressment and penal colonies to expel unwanted individuals. So they have additional incentive to dump their criminals and undesirables on the Watch. Tyrion makes the point that most men would choose being castrated to joining the Watch. No. They would not. That’s completely absurd. 

Plus, in Russia they were able to conquer Siberia partially using forced labour and resettled serfs. So it’s perfectly reasonable that a Westerosi monarch could attempt this. They have no where else to conquer by land...

The watches decline is a plot device and done to add drama and conflict. It’s also done to throw shades on the corrupt and vile south for eating cake while the honest Northerners are put at risk.

 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

In a way it's decline makes sense , before the arrival of the Andals joining the watch was honorable after that it became a prison . Then second sons decided they could do better by crossing  the Narrow Seas and becoming mercenaries . Fewer and fewer see it as being honorable , while others are willing to desert .

[Buried Treasure]

4 hours ago, BRANDON GREYSTARK said:

In a way it's decline makes sense , before the arrival of the Andals joining the watch was honorable after that it became a prison . Then second sons decided they could do better by crossing  the Narrow Seas and becoming mercenaries . Fewer and fewer see it as being honorable , while others are willing to desert .

Yes. I pinpoint the Blackfyre wars and the rise of the Golden Company as the cause of the NW decline.

First a large scale war that would have killed off a generation of heirs and spares. Instead of third or fourth sons choosing the Wall over becoming a household knight, many would have inherited.

Then the formation of the Golden Company to give the losers and exiles an honourable home after the war was over. Which then became an honourable option for the next generation of spare sons and exiles. Even up through Robert's Rebellion when the GC had devolved to merely semi-honourable 'best of a bad bunch' status, it was still a magnet for Westorosi exiles. Among the first generation exiles  of the GC we meet in ADWD there are some I am sure would have joined any mercenary company without a care for honour, but perhaps others that without the GC would have saved their honour by going to the Wall.