Canadian Politics: The Surreality of Life under King Corona

[JGP]

58 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Ok, I had also heard rumours that Freeland would be chosen as Finance minister. As for proroguing parliament, there's a new Finance minister. She'll get, what, 6 or 7 weeks to learn the job and create a plan of action that everyone is demanding, one that will lay out how we get out of the pandemic crisis? 

Don't forget what happened in 2008, at the start of the GFC, the Global Financial Crisis. While the entire world was making plans to support their countries with fiscal stimulus, massive fiscal stimulus, on Nov. 27 Jim Flaherty presented not a budget, but a "fiscal update", cutting government spending by billions, suspending the right of civil servants to strike until 2011, suspending the right of women to seek recourse from the courts for pay equity, selling off Crown assets and a whole bunch of other things. This was just 6 weeks after an election. No budget, the Cons said, because they were still using their last budget, with 'updates'. This triggered the constitutional crisis where the Liberal/NDP/Bloc coalition said they would go to the GG and ask to form a coalition government. Harper prorogued parliament on Dec. 4, what, 7 weeks after an election? The earliest in Canadian history? They resumed on January 27, almost 8 weeks later.

I was coming home from work and turned on the radio in the car to listen to the Fiscal Update, since I was working in the financial services industry and everyone was wondering how the government would help Canada through the crisis. I almost drove off the bloody road when I heard what Flaherty was saying. After they came back, the Conservatives did basically everything the opposition had demanded, setting them up for free-handed spending that led to their majority. Analysis of the spending, iirc, showed 80% of the money went to Conservative ridings.

The Federal election was Oct. 21 last year. Parliament usually prorogues once a year, so between a pandemic and a new Finance minister, I would not be bothered by this.

I get you. 

And one side of me sees it as an interesting move, like, what could the Conservatives possibly have to say about it. I'm armchair Prime Ministering of course, and passes not withstanding [covid being hectic for everyone would only be compounded in government] there's been a series of mistakes in the last several months that have me really questioning Trudeau's grit, and judgment. 

Looking weak.

The are are upsides however. If the NDP and Greens [perhaps even the Bloc, though not so much] didn't have much before, they'll have plenty of leverage to push progressive policy, ie: universal pharmacare, perhaps dental, more green initiatives and OG regulation, hell, maybe even UBI. 

Got to wonder though, if that in itself might create some kind of tentative unholy alliance between the Libs and Cons.

It's a mess. imo.

    

[Fragile Bird]

Singh is disappointed Trudeau didn’t quit as PM and resign his seat.

[JGP]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Singh is disappointed Trudeau didn’t quit as PM and resign his seat.

The fed NDP isn't just broke, I recall reading they're also in debt. Singh doesn't seem to have done anything to address his errant comprehension between fed and prov jurisdiction-- if the supposedly capable people he's surrounded himself with aren't teaching him, Singh needs to enroll in some classes. 

My protest vote for the NDP in my riding last election didn't amount to much [it carried like 75% conservative] but Singh is, and has been, a colossal disappointment. 

I'm not sure how he's survived as leader, frankly.

[JGP]

CPC are picking their new leader today.

The race is beween a bunch of people [checks notes] who dislike other other types of people, but they don't dislike and want to remove rights from the all the same people, except for Sloan who more or less dislikes everyone. 

Going to be a nail biter!

[Fragile Bird]

I’ve been meaning to talk about the candidates these last couple of days and just hadn’t gotten around to it. I was listening to Cross Country Checkup on CBC radio and it was amazing to me how many people spoke well of the two unknowns, the fellow who said he’d make it illegal for any level of government to mandate masks, Derek Sloan, and the lady who is opposed to abortion and assisted death, Leslyn Lewis. I consider her Sheer in a skirt, though a more intelligent Sheer, and I bet she’s against LGBTQ people as well, whatever she says, because that goes hand in hand with the first two.

And now what a screw up. Their ballot counting machine started shredding ballots. I wondered why the start kept being delayed.

I still can’t forgive Saskatchewan voters dumping Lorne Nystrom for a loser like Sheer.

eta: what really surprised me was Conservatives who called in who said ‘climate change is real and we have to deal with it’. Unfortunately almost all of them then said “I want a leader who can build pipelines and address climate change”. They just don’t get it, they can’t find a Conservative who can do both. If the Conservatives could ever get into this century on climate change and social issues they’d win governments.

[Fragile Bird]

Korey Teneycke is just on CBC saying the rumour is O’Toole is leading and MacKay is third, with Lewis second. He’s just loving that. He’s such a scumbag.

[TrueMetis]

Am cautiously optimistic that with the new finance minister the government will take the opportunity presented by the pandemic to push some significant change.

[Fragile Bird]

2 hours ago, TrueMetis said:

Am cautiously optimistic that with the new finance minister the government will take the opportunity presented by the pandemic to push some significant change.

It’s 11:35 pm and they still haven’t announced the first ballot results. I gather it’s expected very soon, but I’m giving up and going to bed. Though I might check in one more time.

[Fragile Bird]

Bah, might as well do an Update

Update

Aug         17      18      19      20      21      22      23            

BC          236     83      68      80      90       -         -   

AB          359     89      82    103    144       -         -

SK              1       1        4        4        6        2        3

MB           38     17      15      33      34      42      72

ON           99   125    102     76     131    108    115

PQ            55    46      64      86      93     104     74  

M-4            1      3        1        1        2         1       3          

Total       785   364    336    383    500     257   267

BC finally got really pissed off at the party crowd and are now fining people $2,000 for breaking the rules, plus a $300 levy for the Victim Compensation Fund. I'm waiting to hear about AB cracking down next. SK seems to have gotten their issues under control, while the problem has moved to MB. Hutterites in MB complained they were being targeted by angry people and the government tried to use 'communal living' but then went back to acknowledging there was an issue in their communities. Today's number of 72 is the highest case number MB has had in the entire pandemic, and more than half the cases (47 I think) were in the Hutterite community. Ontario keeps going above 100 cases a day, PQ seems to have things under better control. The 3 cases on the 18th in the Maritimes were in PEI, and they were related to the previous week's 5 essential workers. Today's three are 1 in NB, 2 in NS. All in all the Maritimes are doing quite well.

And the Conservative results still aren't out.

[Tywin Manderly]

Erin O'Toole has won the Conservative leadership contest. It is reported that the ballot results were delayed for several hours due to malfunction in the machine that opened the ballots.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-party-leadership-results-1.5695925

[Aemon Stark]

I don't quite understand why they were using paper ballots. I've voted in a few leadership and association leadership elections electronically over the last 10-15 years without any issue. Anyway, I don't see how O'Toole is going to be better than Scheer. His French seems to be worse - and his national profile almost non-existent. I suppose those things both can change but if this is the best the Conservatives can do...

I am surprised Peter Mackay lost, but hopefully this will mean the end of his fairly unaccomplished political career. 

[Fragile Bird]

I keep saying The Traitor Mackay, and I think that’s something he could never shake off.

And comedians and editorial cartoonists must have popped the champagne bottles last night! The Conservatives have a real (o)Toole running the party. Oh the puns, the puns we shall see!

eta: oh, and I said Korey Teneycke was a scumbag up above, right? There he was on national tv saying Peter Mackay has finished third to Lewis, when in fact it was Lewis who finished third. Oh yes, he said it was a rumour, but you know everyone across the country said to themselves, if anyone is plugged in to what’s happening it has to be him, must be true!

At that point in time, the first ballot, Mackay was in the lead, with 33% of the votes versus 31% for O’Toole. Lewis actually won the second round, with many of Sloan’s backers going to her, but in the third round more went to O’Toole for the win. Apparently many of the team members for other candidates in the last leadership race, who moved their voters over to Sheer to get him elected, were running the campaigns of Sloan and Lewis. And a huge number of Lewis backers in Ontario did not pick either a second or third vote, so Mackay was weak in Ontario. It was Lewis or nobody.

[JGP]

I'm about as far from a maths guy as you can get, but I'm trying to figure out this ranked ballot system.

Like, in my head, if we did this federally the chances of a Conservative majority would be almost non-existent yeah? Or nah?

[maarsen]

4 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

I'm about as far from a maths guy as you can get, but I'm trying to figure out this ranked ballot system.

Like, in my head, if we did this federally the chances of a Conservative majority would be almost non-existent yeah? Or nah?

Consider it a bullet dodged when Justin decided to scrap electoral reform. No system of election can be perfect. All have flaws and FPTP at least is easily understood.

[JGP]

58 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Consider it a bullet dodged when Justin decided to scrap electoral reform. No system of election can be perfect. All have flaws and FPTP at least is easily understood.

Is that what Trudeau meant when they passed on ER and said it would give the Libs an unfair electoral advantage, ie: the Cons would seldom, if ever, be invited to form gov? 

[maarsen]

22 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Is that what Trudeau meant when they passed on ER and said it would give the Libs an unfair electoral advantage, ie: the Cons would seldom, if ever, be invited to form gov? 

60 % of the vote last election went to centre left parties. I suspect Justin and the Libs did not want the NDP to be permanent bed partners.

[JGP]

1 hour ago, maarsen said:

60 % of the vote last election went to centre left parties. I suspect Justin and the Libs did not want the NDP to be permanent bed partners.

Even if it meant keeping the Cons almost permanently out of power. Yikes.

[TrueMetis]

2 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Even if it meant keeping the Cons almost permanently out of power. Yikes.

As I recall the NDP and CPC were arguing for a proportional system and the Liberals wanted a ranked ballot system. A ranked ballot system like STV would almost certainly keep the CPC out of power, a proportional only as long as the NDP and Liberals can play nice. And as shown recently that's not a sure thing.

And that doesn't even get into the specifics of which proportional or ranked ballot system to use, for all the complaining about the last election, plenty of proportional systems would have given the same result.

[Paxter]

Lots of speculation that we will be having an election soon...but what are the incentives here? 

I feel like O'Toole is better off hammering the Libs over the pandemic and then having a tilt in a year or so time. As for the NDP, surely they need to keep licking their wounds after last year's disappointment?

[JGP]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Lots of speculation that we will be having an election soon...but what are the incentives here? 

I feel like O'Toole is better off hammering the Libs over the pandemic and then having a tilt in a year or so time. As for the NDP, surely they need to keep licking their wounds after last year's disappointment?

O'Toole needs to put time between the dogwhistling bullshit [and socon asslicking] he did during the leadership race and pivot so as to appeal more broadly. I suspect that the Cons losing MacKay might cost them some middle seats [could be wrong there though] and O'Toole doesn't buy them anything in Quebec or Ontario. Alberta and Saskatchewan pretty much alone won't give the Cons the PMs seat. Ever.

The NDP recently came out saying they were in a good financial position for another election [I call bullshit] They need a new leader. Badly. This is a party that gained a bit of temporary traction in 18 - 19 [after the 15 debacle] but they're largely just spinning their wheels right now. Singh's always yapping about Trudeau's 'pretty words' but very few give a shit about his own.

The Bloc, iono what they're about.

Going to be some interesting moves after the Crown speech, I suspect. If the Liberals are smart they'll make the NDP have to make some tough choices [voting against stuff the NDP arguably would want] Singh can try to take credit again like he did with a lot of the covid measures, but it's transparent.

Long and short of it, I don't expect an election within the next year [barring another ridiculous lapse in Lib judgment]

If there is... it could result in a Liberal majority, which none of the others would want.