Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 16, 2020 Share Posted June 16, 2020 1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said: Things are looking bad in Arizona. Isn't this the norm in AZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pebble thats Stubby Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 30 minutes ago, Triskele said: Getting way over my pay grade, but if this study on Dex is reproduced that's good news. Seems similar to Remdesivir. No silver bullet, but it's an arrow in the quiver where you had almost nothing before. Still curious in both cases how much if at all they make a difference in less sick patients. Both seem to, with what we know so far, have their marginal efficacy in the very sick cohort. This was welcomed news since ICU's needed something, but it seems like it'd be epic if there was some therapeutic that also just got mildly sick people better too, and no idea right now if either of these two do that. @Raja - Dr. Gupta and Dr. Fauci are still harping on mask use. Will you not reply on why the latest mask study was bunk? from what I've heard Dex works by stopping the immune system over reacting. I think the mildly sick dont have their immune system over react and we probably want it to keep working and not be inhibitted. which to me suggests it won't be effective. I should say I got this from watching 1 short mention on the news and have no medical training or knoweldge so admit I don't know anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raja Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Triskele said: @Raja - Dr. Gupta and Dr. Fauci are still harping on mask use. Will you not reply on why the latest mask study was bunk? And I advocate for mask use too ( Which is pretty clear from my post). But I don't use bad studies to further that point. Have you read the study in question? Or even glanced at the regressions & the methods they used? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaircat Meow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 8 hours ago, Triskele said: Getting way over my pay grade, but if this study on Dex is reproduced that's good news. Seems similar to Remdesivir. No silver bullet, but it's an arrow in the quiver where you had almost nothing before. Still curious in both cases how much if at all they make a difference in less sick patients. Both seem to, with what we know so far, have their marginal efficacy in the very sick cohort. This was welcomed news since ICU's needed something, but it seems like it'd be epic if there was some therapeutic that also just got mildly sick people better too, and no idea right now if either of these two do that. @Raja - Dr. Gupta and Dr. Fauci are still harping on mask use. Will you not reply on why the latest mask study was bunk? I think Dex sounds a lot better than Remdesivir, as it actually improves the mortality rate for the sickest patients by a fair amount. Rem didn't do that afaik, it just cut recovery time. A long way from being a silver bullet of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said: I think Dex sounds a lot better than Remdesivir, as it actually improves the mortality rate for the sickest patients by a fair amount. Rem didn't do that afaik, it just cut recovery time. A long way from being a silver bullet of course. Also, it is very very cheap. It is a known drug with known safety levels. It can be mass produced whilst Remdesivir is complex to scale up. Overall very good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted June 17, 2020 Author Share Posted June 17, 2020 And New Zealand gets two new cases. Two women travelled from the UK, were in isolation, given special permission to see their dying mother (the reason they travelled to NZ), and turned out to both have Covid-19. And 137 cases in Beijing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: And New Zealand gets two new cases. Two women travelled from the UK, were in isolation, given special permission to see their dying mother (the reason they travelled to NZ), and turned out to both have Covid-19. Yes, Jacinda Ardern is very angry. Months of efforts thrown down the toilet. Hopefully they don't create a massive outbreaks 55 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: And 137 cases in Beijing. This is hard, very hard to contain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 The sloppy research regarding HCQ continues. Apparently the RECOVERY trial in UK (mentioned early in this thread) confused hydrixichloriquine with hydroxquinolones. I facepalmed. This is Oxford ffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 18 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said: Things are looking bad in Arizona. And Arkansas, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North/South Carolina. Virtually the entire sun belt is exploding in terms of cases, with hospitalizations and deaths no doubt to follow along shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, Maithanet said: And Arkansas, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North/South Carolina. Virtually the entire sun belt is exploding in terms of cases, with hospitalizations and deaths no doubt to follow along shortly. We've posted record numbers of cases 3 out of the last 4 days, and hospitalizations are up 15% over 3 days, so you can include us in that territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said: We've posted record numbers of cases 3 out of the last 4 days, and hospitalizations are up 15% over 3 days, so you can include us in that territory. It's not good. It definitely feels to me like there's a real reverse correlation between how bad your initial outbreak was and this current wave. The states that were spared the worst in April are the ones that are currently skyrocketing, whereas most of the hardest hit states are still flat/declining. I think psychology (and politics) is definitely playing a role. If a lot of people (particularly leaders) are saying that this is over then it's no surprise that people are taking social distancing less seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, Maithanet said: It's not good. It definitely feels to me like there's a real reverse correlation between how bad your initial outbreak was and this current wave. The states that were spared the worst in April are the ones that are currently skyrocketing, whereas most of the hardest hit states are still flat/declining. I think psychology (and politics) is definitely playing a role. If a lot of people (particularly leaders) are saying that this is over then it's no surprise that people are taking social distancing less seriously. Per at least one set of metrics, right now only Michigan, New York, and New Jersey are on track to contain the virus. https://covidactnow.org/?s=51764 And I doubt they'll be able to keep it up for long if none of their neighbors are. What a shitshow. And it was entirely predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Dexamethasone for Coronavirus Infection https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/06/17/dexamethasone-for-coronavirus-infection a good take on the news with of course some cautionary notes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, Maithanet said: It's not good. It definitely feels to me like there's a real reverse correlation between how bad your initial outbreak was and this current wave. The states that were spared the worst in April are the ones that are currently skyrocketing, whereas most of the hardest hit states are still flat/declining. I think psychology (and politics) is definitely playing a role. If a lot of people (particularly leaders) are saying that this is over then it's no surprise that people are taking social distancing less seriously. Maybe? Maybe not. As with Europe, despite the general relaxing of restrictions no new upsurges are observed yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I tend to think that once a key fraction of the population, the disease has trouble in expanding further. That fraction may change of course, due to social distancing policies, idiosyncrasy, weather patterns and other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said: Maybe? Maybe not. As with Europe, despite the general relaxing of restrictions no new upsurges are observed yet. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I tend to think that once a key fraction of the population, the disease has trouble in expanding further. That fraction may change of course, due to social distancing policies, idiosyncrasy, weather patterns and other factors. Huh? We are seeing the upsurge right now in the Sun Belt states, with infection levels higher than ever seen before. The upsurge isn't quite as large as that seen in the NYC metro area (and some other big metros like Detroit, Chicago, etc) in April, but at current growth rates it could get there in just a few short weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hereward Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Huh? We are seeing the upsurge right now in the Sun Belt states, with infection levels higher than ever seen before. I’m pretty sure he means “in Europe”, not “as with Europe”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rotting sea cow Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Huh? We are seeing the upsurge right now in the Sun Belt states, with infection levels higher than ever seen before. The upsurge isn't quite as large as that seen in the NYC metro area (and some other big metros like Detroit, Chicago, etc) in April, but at current growth rates it could get there in just a few short weeks. You are misunderstanding me. NY and other hardly hit places in April look now pretty much like Europe. Not new upsurges yet. Places that were "spared" in April are now starting to look bad. Maybe is too early to say what will happen in Europe, but there have been many weeks of continuous relaxing and not large outbreaks. Some eyebrows have been raised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 1 minute ago, rotting sea cow said: You are misunderstanding me. NY and other hardly hit places in April look now pretty much like Europe. Not new upsurges yet. Places that were "spared" in April are now starting to look bad. Maybe is too early to say what will happen in Europe, but there have been many weeks of continuous relaxing and not large outbreaks. Some eyebrows have been raised. States here have started seeing spikes about 6 weeks after opening. It's not yet as bad as in the first hard-hit states, but if states continue to expand their opening process, it's only a matter of time before cases start exploding exponentially. The cautious, phased openings is all that's keeping us from getting hit like back in March, April, and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said: States here have started seeing spikes about 6 weeks after opening. It's not yet as bad as in the first hard-hit states, but if states continue to expand their opening process, it's only a matter of time before cases start exploding exponentially. The cautious, phased openings is all that's keeping us from getting hit like back in March, April, and May. I mostly agree. I would add that different people are obviously treating the virus very differently. There are definitely some people who see reopening happening and think that it's fine to go back to normal. And at the other end of the spectrum are people who are still totally locked down at home. Then there's the vast majority of people somewhere on the spectrum, trying to stay safe, but also trying to have some social interactions too (and keep their jobs). I think that where society as a whole falls on this spectrum will vary in the constant tug of war between fear of COVID keeping us at home and mental/economic necessities demanding interaction. But we aren't going to be particularly close to "normal" as a society for years, if ever. I think in most states, R0 is currently somewhere between 1.0 and 1.5, with a few possibly a bit higher. An R0 of 1.5 is still a lot better than 3.5, although you'll still have exponential growth and a huge problem on your hands in just a matter of weeks. If I'm right about this, then we'll just have to see what happens next. Do people in states like Florida and Arizona cut back sufficiently that the R0 can get below 1? I doubt it, although as cases spike I do expect the R0 to fall. The 2 week lag between infection spikes and spikes in positive cases makes this much harder. Then there's also the question of whether these states have the political will to impose another lockdown if that is what is necessary. I am very doubtful of the leadership of men like DeSantis and Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filippa Eilhart Posted June 17, 2020 Share Posted June 17, 2020 Quote A total of 657 people have tested positive for the coronavirus at a slaughterhouse in northwestern Germany, authorities announced on Wednesday, out of 983 completed tests. https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-over-600-people-test-positive-at-german-slaughterhouse/a-53846038 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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