US Politics: A small step from going viral to going postal

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

NBC/Marist poll out has Biden +9 in PA, 53/44. 

On another note, one thing I've been wondering about for a while is starting to get more attention: Will Big Ten football play a roll in the election? Republicans have been pushing hard to get the season going after it was delayed/canceled. I'm sure they want to watch the games, but more cynically, many of the schools are in swing states and dumb people will vote for politicians that give them their games back (the key states being PA, MI, WI, MN, IA and OH). These same Republicans seem to give fuck all if the PAC-12 reopens, which only impacts one state they need (AZ). 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Yeah, some of the more recent polls have made me step off the ledge (particularly the recent PA one). One thing that strikes me about the PA polls are how few undecideds there are, so thats a good sign I guess.

I will say though that counting on Florida for anything is a fools errand. Better to have a path to victory that doesnt require that state. It usually disappoints, so I'd rather focus on keeping WI/MI/PA rather than getting overly cute with expanding the map.

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yeah, some of the more recent polls have made me step off the ledge (particularly the recent PA one). One thing that strikes me about the PA polls are how few undecideds there are, so thats a good sign I guess.

I will say though that counting on Florida for anything is a fools errand. Better to have a path to victory that doesnt require that state. It usually disappoints, so I'd rather focus on keeping WI/MI/PA rather than getting overly cute with expanding the map.

As many paths to victory as possible!  If Biden wins even one of FL/NC/GA/TX, he has almost assuredly won the election.  The downside of that statement is that if he goes 0/4, then he has really only two paths left (PA/MI/WI and PA/MI/AZ).  Of those four states, PA looks the shakiest, so that Marist poll is indeed welcome news.  Not to mention the fear of Trump stealing the election goes up exponentially if the vote is even close, and the southern states (FL, TX, NC) are going to be faster in counting than the midwestern states like PA, MI and WI. 

[S John]

Hard not to daydream about capturing Florida. Assuming the 2016 map stays the same except Biden flips Florida then the Dems would only need ONE of PA, MI, WI, or AZ to get over 270. I like that better than having to regain all of PA, MI, WI.

also what are the odds that Trump flips MN or NH? 

[IheartIheartTesla]

I understand the electoral math, but its just that Florida invariably disappoints (the recent gubernatorial race was off by a few points, just enough to tip it to the Republicans). I also wonder if there is some inherent difficulty in polling it accurately, similar to Nevada.

Also starting to worry a bit about the senate race in Michigan. (now rated as tossup from Leans Dem). Still, given  a choice I'd rather Biden take Michigan if there is vote splitting going on.

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

I understand the electoral math, but its just that Florida invariably disappoints (the recent gubernatorial race was off by a few points, just enough to tip it to the Republicans). I also wonder if there is some inherent difficulty in polling it accurately, similar to Nevada.

It does seem like the state consistently polls as being tied/slight dem lead and then almost always goes R by the slightest margin (the only exception to this is Obama's narrow 2012 victory).  The polls were either 50/50 (2010, 2014, 2016) or slightly Dem leaning (2018) the other 4 times, and Democrats lost them all.  Winning just 1 of 5 when the race always seems like a coin flip feels pretty shitty.

But that's no reason to assume that Biden will lose if he's polling ahead by 2.5 points on average.  Pollsters do adjust to avoid making the same mistakes.  It just means not to take anything for granted, and make sure there are other paths to victory beyond just Florida.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, S John said:

Hard not to daydream about capturing Florida. Assuming the 2016 map stays the same except Biden flips Florida then the Dems would only need ONE of PA, MI, WI, or AZ to get over 270. I like that better than having to regain all of PA, MI, WI.

Florida is so strange. Other polling I saw this morning actually had Trump ahead of Biden with Latinos in FL, though most of that is on the backs of Cuban voters. AZ is a better bet than FL, and frankly I’d chase TX before FL even if the latter is more winnable in the short term.

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also what are the odds that Trump flips MN or NH? 

I feel confident in saying that if Trump wins MN, he’s sweep the Midwest and will win fairly easily.

[Fez]

51 minutes ago, S John said:

Hard not to daydream about capturing Florida. Assuming the 2016 map stays the same except Biden flips Florida then the Dems would only need ONE of PA, MI, WI, or AZ to get over 270. I like that better than having to regain all of PA, MI, WI.

also what are the odds that Trump flips MN or NH? 

New  Hampshire seems real low this year. Minnesota, I'd say is possible. I could even see Biden winning the election while losing Minnesota; though it's pretty unlikely. I think Michigan will almost certainly be more blue than it. And I could see Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also that way. In fact, right now the 538 averages for Biden are: Wisconsin +7.5, Michigan +6.7, Minnesota +6.2, and Pennsylvania +5.1

8 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Does anyone know how Arizona seems to have become solidly blue so quickly?  The polls seem to show that Kelly is an overwhelming favorite to beat McSally and that Biden might be now stronger there than many other traditional swing states.  It just seems to have happened virtually overnight.  Makes me wonder if there's a chance that whenever Texas finally goes if it could go surprisingly quickly.  

The signs were there for Arizona in 2018, but yeah, if the polls are right its been a quick transformation. The big reason is that Arizona is very suburban (over half the state lives in the Phoenix metro area and another 1/7th lives in the Tucson metro area), and those suburbs decide who wins elections. With the suburbs all over the US flipping from Republican to Democrat, the state is flipping too. It's not the kind of state where Republicans can win because there's enough rural counties where Republicans always gets 80%+ of the vote (e.g. Texas, at least up to this year), nor the kind where there's enough evangelics who always vote for the pro-life candidate (e.g. Alabama), nor the kind where Republicans won over the old blue-collar Democrats (e.g. Kentucky). 

It was all about the suburbs and those are flipping and Republicans don't have another source of voters to turn to in Arizona. By contrast, in a state like Minnesota or Wisconsin, even as the suburbs  flip, Republicans still have votes to gain in the rural areas; which might be enough to offset it.

[Ormond]

21 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Does anyone know how Arizona seems to have become solidly blue so quickly?  The polls seem to show that Kelly is an overwhelming favorite to beat McSally and that Biden might be now stronger there than many other traditional swing states.  It just seems to have happened virtually overnight.  Makes me wonder if there's a chance that whenever Texas finally goes if it could go surprisingly quickly.  

Well, here is an analysis from June 29 by 538. Basically it's a combination of increased Latino voter percentage and highly educated suburbanites moving toward the Democrats, with the latter actually being more important:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-arizona-became-a-swing-state/

I've recently seen analyses speculating that Texas and Georgia are actually more likely to become reliably Democratic in a decade or so than most Midwestern states, because the combination of ethnic minority voters with college educated White urban/suburban voters will dominate those states more than it will states like Wisconsin and Michigan, where less educated White voters will still be a bigger factor. 

 

[Maithanet]

25 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Does anyone know how Arizona seems to have become solidly blue so quickly?  The polls seem to show that Kelly is an overwhelming favorite to beat McSally and that Biden might be now stronger there than many other traditional swing states.  It just seems to have happened virtually overnight.  Makes me wonder if there's a chance that whenever Texas finally goes if it could go surprisingly quickly.  

ETA:  I don't mean "solidly" like it's just blue forever, but that it could just be leaning this blue in this election still shocks.  

As I understand it, there are two major factors at play in Arizona.

1.  The population is changing rapidly.  The Latino population is huge and coming of age, and Arizona Latinos are mostly central american and vote more like CA latinos than TX/FL latinos.  Plus lots of retiring west coasters are moving to AZ because it's cheaper. 

2.  It is a very suburban state, with lots of college graduates and Trump is losing those voters fast.  Maricopa county was the last top 15 population county in the country that still voted GOP as of 2016, and it looks like that dam has finally broken. 

[TrackerNeil]

11 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

All the more reason to try and kill it quickly. What could aid in that endeavor? 

That's why any such policy needs to be implemented quickly, so the real-world benefits kick in before the GOP can repeal. (Unlike the ACA, which took years to fully manifest.)

In terms of the filibuster, my feeling is that the majority has to be permitted to govern. In the case of climate change, the alternative could be fatal.

[Fez]

It's a shame that the media, and by extension the political world of the US, has such an east coast bias.

If this was NYC or DC, instead of SF, climate change would absolutely become a major electoral issue. Wildfires should not be able to do this.

 

[Maithanet]

31 minutes ago, Fez said:

It was all about the suburbs and those are flipping and Republicans don't have another source of voters to turn to in Arizona. By contrast, in a state like Minnesota or Wisconsin, even as the suburbs  flip, Republicans still have votes to gain in the rural areas; which might be enough to offset it.

Yeah, this is a good point, Arizona is a somewhat unique state in this regard.  Over 60% of the votes cast in the 2018 senate race were in Maricopa County.  Pima County (Tucson) was another 16%.  Sinema won Maricopa by just 4 points and Pima by 15, which in any other state would be lackluster numbers for a Democrat in the most urban counties.  But when 76% of state voters are in those two counties, it just doesn't really matter McSally won the rest of the state fairly convincingly. 

If Biden wins Maricopa county by 4+ points, he's gonna win the state.  And honestly, I expect he will.  I'm fairly bullish on Arizona. 

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

If Biden wins Maricopa county by 4+ points, he's gonna win the state.  And honestly, I expect he will.  I'm fairly bullish on Arizona. 

I agree. The problem is, I suspect Arizona will be one of the states not called on election night (and a good candidate for a state that Trump will initially be up in). And I think it's really important that Biden is past 270 EVs on election night; there's too many opportunities for Trump and Barr to make trouble otherwise. That's why I really want Florida to flip; since with their experience counting mail-in ballots it'll almost certainly be called by 11pm eastern (unless there's a razor-thin margin).

[A Prince of Dorne]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

On another note, one thing I've been wondering about for a while is starting to get more attention: Will Big Ten football play a roll in the election? Republicans have been pushing hard to get the season going after it was delayed/canceled. I'm sure they want to watch the games, but more cynically, many of the schools are in swing states and dumb people will vote for politicians that give them their games back (the key states being PA, MI, WI, MN, IA and OH). These same Republicans seem to give fuck all if the PAC-12 reopens, which only impacts one state they need (AZ). 

I live in Ohio and this has been a real concern for me. It could definitely tip things here, as people are very angry at the Big Ten right now and seem to be convinced the cancellation is a liberal/anti-Trump thing. I've a hunch it's not as big a deal in Wisconsin or Michigan, but western and central PA feels closer to Ohio in this regard

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, Fez said:

I agree. The problem is, I suspect Arizona will be one of the states not called on election night (and a good candidate for a state that Trump will initially be up in). And I think it's really important that Biden is past 270 EVs on election night; there's too many opportunities for Trump and Barr to make trouble otherwise. That's why I really want Florida to flip; since with their experience counting mail-in ballots it'll almost certainly be called by 11pm eastern (unless there's a razor-thin margin).

I agree that Arizona is very likely to not be called on election night, and there's a good chance Trump will be ahead.  I'm with you that Biden winning Florida or Texas would make a HUGE difference in terms of limiting post-election day drama.  If Trump wins both, things will be much worse.  Plus, with Biden polling ahead by ~3 points in Florida, if he loses there, then it's possible Trump actually did win. 

[HoodedCrow]

Arizona. There are educated people in Arizona. There are old educated people there too. John McCain was popular and Trumps aweful remarks are obvious. If you are older, the callous disregard for people over 50 is probably disturbing and only palatable is you can manage to ignore the health issues. If you are younger, there are many horrors from this administration.

[Fez]

Some damaging quotes here, and not just about COVID. But it's not enough that they're in a book. That's too easy to ignore. I hope Woodward releases the tapes; let people hear Trump's own voice say this shit.

Plenty of his supporters will ignore it, but I think it could peel back some of the voters that have rejoined him after staying away in June and July.

[Maithanet]

Who likes anecdotes?  My 70 year old uncle is a retired welder and one of the most apolitical people I know.  He is proud of the fact that he has never voted.  He told me that this month he registered to vote and is voting for Biden because we have to get rid of Trump.  He's pretty unhappy about COVID.

Both his sons are Trump supporters too, so I was really surprised (and thrilled) that this would be the year he'd finally get to the polls. 

[Martell Spy]

Donald Trump Jr. Defends Kenosha Protest Shooter: ‘We All Do Stupid Things At 17’
The president’s eldest son said he wasn’t “jumping to a conclusion” on Kyle Rittenhouse, who killed two anti-racism protesters in Wisconsin.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-jr-kyle-rittenhouse_n_5f58d394c5b6b48507fa55ee

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Donald Trump Jr. on Tuesday defended Kyle Rittenhouse, the 17-year-old who fatally shot two anti-racism protesters in Wisconsin last month, stating that “we all do stupid things” at that age.