New World Order 2030-50

[DireWolfSpirit]

My fear of (threat) is what damage a bad state actor can do with cyber terrorism. Things like attacking nuclear plants, utilities, gas line controls, pensions, security exchange's, banks, social security and retirement accounts. 

It doesn't even have to be Russia, although I'm deeply suspicious of their actions in those areas. Those threats seem to only be increasing, my fears are more along the line of waking up one day and seeing the World in full on financial meltdown or nuclear meltdown because hackers and cyber terrorist (state sponsored or other) have devised a way to cause untold havoc on the world's security.

It's that fear that I have more than any military threat by a China or Russia or the U.S. under another rogue leader like the one we just rid ourselves of.

[karaddin]

On 3/31/2021 at 6:01 PM, Arakan said:

You want to fight a drug war? Fight against Big Pharma (and corporate greed) and against doctors who prescribe hardcore painkillers for every little thing. In Europe you get paracetamol or ibuprofen and the words of a doctor to accept a little bit of pain. The hardcore stuff is for major injury victims and cancer patients. 

Fuck this noise. Patients in pain should receive treatment appropriate to their pain of a kind that works for them, and that should be a matter between them and their doctor. The misbehavior of Purdue is a problem with capitalism and it's regulation, and should be dealt with as such rather than acting like chronic pain patients and others with pain you seem illegitimate should just suck it up or kill themselves.

Paracetamol and ibuprofen do next to nothing for me. I haven't had the genetic testing, but it's very likely I have an enzyme deficiency that reduces the efficacy of most analgesics which leaves me needing stronger doses than most people. Lucky for me I have access to doctors that trust me and don't operate off that philosophy, so I have access to the painkillers I need. I've wound up with dependency on opioids twice and in both cases I've weaned off as soon as the pain improved. 

Treating addiction like it's a simple issue that's fixed by virtually banning the drugs you've decided are the problem just fucks over a different group of people, and will likely leave some of them dealing with more serious health impacts from different drugs that aren't even fit for purpot in their case.

As to the Russian interference stuff - I don't think the attempt make Russia any worse than the US, I just also think it's reasonable for the US to see that attempt as a threat and want to stop it. That's very different from acting as though the attempt makes Russia an international villain. Their current governments bigoted policies and their president's fondness for assassination may well do so, but that would be their government not the people/nation at large.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I don't know anyone that conflates the government with the people with regards to Russia.

I certainly would resent being viewed as guilty by association over some of the crappy people we've had in our government.

This applies to the vast sea of humanity really, most of us are at mercy to a powerful few from country to country imo.

[JGP]

5 hours ago, karaddin said:

Paracetamol and ibuprofen do next to nothing for me. I haven't had the genetic testing, but it's very likely I have an enzyme deficiency that reduces the efficacy of most analgesics which leaves me needing stronger doses than most people.

Sorry to snip a good post, but fuck me sideways, is that what this is? Every procedure I’ve had, except when knocked out, ie: bone setting, the drugs have worn out before it was over. Multiple instances of needing stitches? I’m feeling it part way through. Two vasectomies [yeah] both times, dental work, etc. I just grinned and bore it until a few years ago when I just started telling whom ever upfront that that shit doesn’t work well on me.
 

An enzyme deficiency. Huh.

[Alarich II]

Wrt Russia, 

I would say, the American and the European perspectives are different here; for their European neighbours, Russia is a threat. To understand the Polish perspective here, we have to dig a little deeper - relations with both big neighbours, Germany and Russia, were never easy, however in todays Russia there is a number of second rank advisors and politicians who to some degree subscripe to an ideology which can probably be summarized as "greater Russian imperialism" and basically aims at the pre-revolutionary restoration. In social policies we'll find it in a very close alignment of orthodox church doctrine and "raison d'état" which results in a very reactionary, anti-modernists laws (for example wrt to family, lgbqt rights etc.) which is sometimes not very far from the government in Warsaw; In foreign policy however, this ideology considers large parts of eastern Europe either as outright Russian territory (large parts of Poland including Warsaw, the Baltic states, Finnland, Ukraine, parts of Romania etc.) or legitimate sphere of influence with Russia as the "natural" protector of a pan-slawic movement. Add to this the legacy of the Soviet empire, WWI (including the post WWI war between Poland the USSR) and WWII (Katyn) and the picture is basically a big and greedy neighbour who breaks international treaties (Ukraine!) when the opportunity arises to conquer territory and who - in the form of the enclave of Kaliningrad - has already a foothold right in your backyard. Of course you'll want to make damn sure to negate that kind of actor an opportunity to bite a chunk out of your territory. 

The Baltic states, Poland, Finnland, they're all taking this pretty seriously, because the Russian tactics of slowly chipping away from the edges whenever the opportunity arises will of course hit Russias direct neighbours first. In that regard, there's a very interesting video by the Finnish defence forces how they would see a new armed conflict unfold: 

 You should activate subtitles though, unless you speak Finnish.

[polishgenius]

3 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

Sorry to snip a good post, but fuck me sideways, is that what this is? Every procedure I’ve had, except when knocked out, ie: bone setting, the drugs have worn out before it was over. Multiple instances of needing stitches? I’m feeling it part way through. Two vasectomies [yeah] both times, dental work, etc. I just grinned and bore it until a few years ago when I just started telling whom ever upfront that that shit doesn’t work well on me.
 

An enzyme deficiency. Huh.

 

Same here. Every dentist appointment I've been to in as long as I can remember I've had to be injected twice, and when they KO'd me to take multiple teeth out, I was aware (though thankfully not painfully) partway through and was completely fine and in control by 1pm on a day they said I wouldn't be looking after myself till the eveningtime.

Well huh. At least I know there's a potential reason.


 

1 hour ago, Alarich II said:

Wrt Russia, 

 

 

Thank you for this whole post got my point across a lot better than I did.

[maarsen]

4 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

Sorry to snip a good post, but fuck me sideways, is that what this is? Every procedure I’ve had, except when knocked out, ie: bone setting, the drugs have worn out before it was over. Multiple instances of needing stitches? I’m feeling it part way through. Two vasectomies [yeah] both times, dental work, etc. I just grinned and bore it until a few years ago when I just started telling whom ever upfront that that shit doesn’t work well on me.
 

An enzyme deficiency. Huh.

I have had the same response for years to dental freezing. I guess the screams of pain as a child were not enough and I had to be more upfrront about the fact that the freezing was not going well.

[karaddin]

12 hours ago, JEORDHl said:

Sorry to snip a good post, but fuck me sideways, is that what this is? Every procedure I’ve had, except when knocked out, ie: bone setting, the drugs have worn out before it was over. Multiple instances of needing stitches? I’m feeling it part way through. Two vasectomies [yeah] both times, dental work, etc. I just grinned and bore it until a few years ago when I just started telling whom ever upfront that that shit doesn’t work well on me.
 

An enzyme deficiency. Huh.

The one I'm referring to is correlated with joint hypermobility syndrome and hypermobile Ehlers Danos Syndrome (with fairly good indication the former is just a milder case of the latter). Local anesthetics are definitely in the list of things it can impact with injections being less effective than expected and wearing off faster than usual. I needed an absolute ton to have my wisdom teeth out.

It is not thought to have an impact on general anesthesia as that mechanism of action is completely different to both local anesthesia and analgesics. So waking up early from a general is, as far as I understand it, not likely to indicate this particular issue. But I'm hardly an expert, just someone with (so far at least) a milder case that's on the border of bad enough to get diagnosed.

There's also some research suggesting that some aspects of it gets worse with an increase in estrogen which certainly tracks with my personal experience, most of the problems didn't crop up until a year or two after I'd started taking it, but I seem to have had the enzyme deficiency all along so you may find you don't have much by way of other symptoms if you look up EDS.

The very tarnished silver lining at least in my personal case is that the reduced opioid response also seems to result in reduced withdrawal symptoms.

[Arakan]

Sorry, delete 

[Arakan]

On 3/31/2021 at 2:52 PM, Fez said:

Your information is about 5-10 years out of date. Prescription opioid misuse still exists but has been in significant decline for a while now, between changes to the formulas, new punishments for pill mills, better patient education, and better monitoring programs we're getting a pretty good handle on it. Mexican heroin is still an issue, but it's mostly stabilized and is dwarfed by the real driver of the current opioid epidemic: fentanyl. Which mostly comes from China, where it is almost entirely unregulated and is illicitly trafficked to the US.

Also, the EU had 9,200 overdose deaths in 2018, the most recent year with data. Much lower than the US of course, but let's at least use accurate numbers: https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/13236/TDAT20001ENN_web.pdf

And in fact, when you look at the numbers, the picture of drug use in the EU is not that different from the US. Heroin, cocaine, amphetamine, and MDMA use is all comparable. The big differences are the trafficked fentanyl (which is what really skews our overdose rates), the prescription drugs (which are in decline), and marijuana. Europeans use plenty of marijuana (7.6% of adults), but Americans use more (17.5% of adults).

https://www.emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/publications/13236/TDAT20001ENN_web.pdf
 

Page 66  

First, the 9,200 figure you quoted is not average but one year. Second, it includes Turkey and Norway (I mean come on, it even stands there hahaha). Without them it’s 8,200 for EU+UK. 
And third, well, you are aware that I was speaking of the EUROPEAN UNION? The UK is not part of the European Union, in case you didn’t know. I repeat: the UK is not part of the EU. They count for roughly 3000 deaths on average. 

I suggest, before you use statistics read them. That shit with half-truths, „alternative“ facts or outright bullshit might work in the US but not with me.

My point stands, in average 5,000 drug deaths within the EU versus roughly 80,000 deaths in the US. 

Focus on the Problem in your country, not in (false) bean counting. 

[Arakan]

23 hours ago, karaddin said:

Fuck this noise. Patients in pain should receive treatment appropriate to their pain of a kind that works for them, and that should be a matter between them and their doctor. The misbehavior of Purdue is a problem with capitalism and it's regulation, and should be dealt with as such rather than acting like chronic pain patients and others with pain you seem illegitimate should just suck it up or kill themselves.

Paracetamol and ibuprofen do next to nothing for me. I haven't had the genetic testing, but it's very likely I have an enzyme deficiency that reduces the efficacy of most analgesics which leaves me needing stronger doses than most people. Lucky for me I have access to doctors that trust me and don't operate off that philosophy, so I have access to the painkillers I need. I've wound up with dependency on opioids twice and in both cases I've weaned off as soon as the pain improved. 

Treating addiction like it's a simple issue that's fixed by virtually banning the drugs you've decided are the problem just fucks over a different group of people, and will likely leave some of them dealing with more serious health impacts from different drugs that aren't even fit for purpot in their case.

As to the Russian interference stuff - I don't think the attempt make Russia any worse than the US, I just also think it's reasonable for the US to see that attempt as a threat and want to stop it. That's very different from acting as though the attempt makes Russia an international villain. Their current governments bigoted policies and their president's fondness for assassination may well do so, but that would be their government not the people/nation at large.

Karaddin, why so defensive? I agree, those who need it should get the appropriate pain release treatment but this is not what has happened and still happens in the US. 

I know for a fact that American football players (College) got hardcore painkillers for ligament rupture if he wanted. I mean what the fuck, this is not normal. Getting one‘s wisdom teeth removed does not justify to get prescribed hardcore painkillers. But happened. 

Of course that’s just anecdotal but there are enough studies out there who compare pain treatment in the US, Europe and others. Doctors should be very careful to prescribe opioid containing painkillers, and for various reasons you know better than me they were not in the US (systemic corruption, capitalism at work). 
 

Anyway, both you and Fez are totally ignoring my major point. American scam war on drug fucks over Latin America. Let’s speak about this. 

[TheLastWolf]

Just saw the title 

Tf... You are one optimistic lot. I don't even think we Homo Sapiens will cross 2030 without the usual Armageddon, Apocalypse, Judgement Day, extinction, annihilation, nuclear holocaust and bunker shit stuff. 

Spoiler

Maybe it's something to do with the fact that I am a nihilist of sorts 

Cheers! Ray of sunshine... 

[karaddin]

1 minute ago, Arakan said:

Karaddin, why so defensive? I agree, those who need it should get the appropriate pain release treatment but this is not what has happened and still happens in the US. 

I know for a fact that American football players (College) got hardcore painkillers for ligament rupture if he wanted. I mean what the fuck, this is not normal. Getting one‘s wisdom teeth removed does not justify to get prescribed hardcore painkillers. But happened. 

I thought it was pretty clear why I'm defensive and I'm not even denying that I am. I'm defensive because there is an international push to make it harder for people who need certain pain management to get access to that pain management that, and I am one of those people. It bears all the characteristics of a moral panic and is a trend towards the sorts of policies that make up the war on drugs at the same time as I was hoping we were winding that shit down. That push is at least partially driven by the US experience of opioid deaths even in countries which have not had the same level of problems with it, or had the same things causing it - which is true for my country. We're so culturally tied to the US that people just talk about the opioid crisis as though its a domestic issue when they're thinking of the US experience of that.

In the last 3 years the painkiller which is the baseline painkiller for me to get any level of relief, codeine, has gone from being available without prescription, to prescription required, and now the government are going after doctors that do prescribe it despite it being on the same schedule as any other standard prescription drug. The price I pay for my codeine based painkiller has more than doubled, and now I also need to see one of my doctors which adds further expense. And having multiple chronic health conditions is fucking expensive, I didn't need it to get more expensive.

Also second bolded - again, you're making assumptions about pain levels as though that's universal. I had my wisdom teeth out and was given hydrocodone for 1 week. At the end of the first week when I tried to go off it and drop down just to the codeine I had I was in so much pain I was crying constantly and completely unable to function. I got another week of hydrocodone and the pain had improved about 5 days into it and I was finally able to ease off.

I'm defensive because people who got dealt a better hand in life casually perpetuate attitudes that will make mine worse.

[Arakan]

@polishgenius @Alarich II

First, good analysis @Alarich II I agree. There is a lot of proto-fascist or at least very very rightwing conservative talk going on in Russia, and I would add Poland, Hungary (to a lesser extent Croatia and Romania). 
 

Talk about restoration of glorious past? Check 

Social conservatism (family values, church, LGBT rights, women rights)? Check 

Against abortion or self-determination of women? Check 

Nationalism, xenophobia, Islamophobia, racism? Check 

Fight against free press and independent judiciary? Check 

Funny thing is: all of the above is valid for Russia (except maybe islamophobia) and Poland and Hungary. 
 

So basically, Poland and Hungary are saying „fuck EU value system“ but still expect financial support and support against Russia. Doesn’t work. 

[polishgenius]

Sure Poland's government is an absolute shitbox and so is Hungary's.


How does that make Russia less of a threat? Or are you just suggesting that it doesn't matter if Russia eventually gets it claws back into Poland they deserve it coz of Kaczynski?

[Arakan]

5 minutes ago, karaddin said:

I thought it was pretty clear why I'm defensive and I'm not even denying that I am. I'm defensive because there is an international push to make it harder for people who need certain pain management to get access to that pain management that, and I am one of those people. It bears all the characteristics of a moral panic and is a trend towards the sorts of policies that make up the war on drugs at the same time as I was hoping we were winding that shit down. That push is at least partially driven by the US experience of opioid deaths even in countries which have not had the same level of problems with it, or had the same things causing it - which is true for my country. We're so culturally tied to the US that people just talk about the opioid crisis as though its a domestic issue when they're thinking of the US experience of that.

In the last 3 years the painkiller which is the baseline painkiller for me to get any level of relief, codeine, has gone from being available without prescription, to prescription required, and now the government are going after doctors that do prescribe it despite it being on the same schedule as any other standard prescription drug. The price I pay for my codeine based painkiller has more than doubled, and now I also need to see one of my doctors which adds further expense. And having multiple chronic health conditions is fucking expensive, I didn't need it to get more expensive.

Also second bolded - again, you're making assumptions about pain levels as though that's universal. I had my wisdom teeth out and was given hydrocodone for 1 week. At the end of the first week when I tried to go off it and drop down just to the codeine I had I was in so much pain I was crying constantly and completely unable to function. I got another week of hydrocodone and the pain had improved about 5 days into it and I was finally able to ease off.

I'm defensive because people who got dealt a better hand in life casually perpetuate attitudes that will make mine worse.

I understand you. My girlfriend is also very pain sensitive. Two weeks ago she was at the dentist and needed 3 injections. She also uses codein (prescription drug over here) for migraine headaches but only as a last resort. Otherwise Paracetamol 800 mg.

There should be no moral outrage I totally agree but just good, accountable doctoring. The problem starts when doctors give out hardcore medicine without even looking on it at an individual case level. 
 

Those hardcore painkillers ARE dangerous there is no other way to put it. 

[karaddin]

1 minute ago, Arakan said:

Those hardcore painkillers ARE dangerous there is no other way to put it. 

But so are all the alternatives except for cannabis, which isn't suited for all patients and all pain. And I'm sure as fuck opposed to the ridiculous laws that have prevented not just the use of cannabis but even the research into it. If we hadn't lost decades we might have much more targeted variants and more precise dosing. When dosed appropriately and dependency/addiction managed opioids are actually some of the lower impact drugs in terms of adverse effects, while the various other drugs which get tried instead often cause worse withdrawal and have a greater negative impact on quality of life while also being ineffective. Lyrica/Gabapentin is one popular alternative and it can be excellent for certain nerve pain and other chronic conditions, and but it can do absolutely nothing for inflammatory pain while destroying the persons quality of life. 

All options carry risks and complexity, there's no simple answer.

[Arakan]

2 hours ago, polishgenius said:

Sure Poland's government is an absolute shitbox and so is Hungary's.


How does that make Russia less of a threat? Or are you just suggesting that it doesn't matter if Russia eventually gets it claws back into Poland they deserve it coz of Kaczynski?

No. But tell me how as a Dutch or Swedish  politician can you sell increasing support for Poland when its government is shitting on basically everything you or the EU stands for. Hungary is openly racist and islamophobe, racist against Roma almost on the level of US Jim Crow era, anti free press, anti-abortion, anti Independent judiciary. All of the above goes for Poland. Add to that the toxic influence of the Catholic Church. 
 

I think you are well aware the EU did „protest“, did try to sanction both countries. But the EU laws don’t allow for much, a big bug in its „constitution“. 

I fear Hungary is lost and Poland is just a little bit behind. 

[polishgenius]

Yeah the turn in your argument here is just bizarre. I'm well aware that Poland's government is the fucking worst and is taking the piss with the EU  - I brought it up myself on the first page of this topic in response to you saying the EU is seen as a fair player - but you've pivoted to that fact in response to us pointing out that Russia is actually a bit of a threat. It's like you're now saying that Poland no longer counts as one of the countries we should care about a threat to so it's still not a real threat. 

 

 

You're also somewhat underminging your earlier position that the EU is a sweetness-and-light project that will definitely come good and lead the world. It can't be that but also be completely ineffective at stopping Poland and Hungary's lurch to the right from within it.

[karaddin]

On the subject of the EU, the new French "anti-separatism" law contains provisions that are a pretty long way from any shining bastion of freedom. So to speak to the main point of this thread, just another sign of the current trend not being positive at all.