What can maege and Galbart do to enforce robb's will?

[divica]

I was having a discussion when this whole theory just come to me.

 

So, galbart and maege arrive at the Neck some time after the RW and don't know that jon is LC (at the beguining of feast/dance). So if you are maege and galbart and have robb's will what can you do? Given that robb was betrayed by the freys and that roose now has the suport of the IT to be the warden of the north and that his bastard has been terrorizing the north and controls winterfell what could they do? In adition, at the start of feast the IT has hostages from several houses. So how how can they gather support to show up at the wall and make them release jon from his vows?

It is important to note that they probably can't just send a letter to the NW because regular NW brothers don't receive letters and they have no idea who is the LC at the wall. He can be someone loyal to the boltons or lannisters (the NW was inclined to chose someone that the IT woud like). in adition, Galbart's seat (deepwood motte is taken by IB).

So comunicating with bear island (because it is maege's home) and going the clans (they are suposed to be several thousand and very loyal to the starks) for support are 2 pretty obvious options. I don't even know if given the situation at the beguining of feast/dance there would be any other options that they could 100% trust because besides the IB invasion, the IT hostages and the bolton suporters robb also made some enemies like the karstarks. So if someone can think of other houses they could try to comunicate with in order to garner men to pressure the NW into releasing jon it would be great!

 

Now, it is interesting to note that we know that alysanne's sisters are with maege and given that alysane was at bear island it makes sense that until feast her younger sisters were there with her (as she is older she should be going to war before them). At the very least we know that alysanne comunicated with her mother or sisters because she says that her sisters are with  her mother . So we know that maege or someone in her party comunicated with bear island pretty early in feast/dance. And therefore little lyanna might be very well informed about the will when she writes her letter to stannis.

In adition, we know that alisanne tries to free deepwood mote (the seat of house glover) with only her men. If the mormonts knew about the will this would make a lot of sense because they would want to free deepwood motte in order to galbart glover to be able to add his men to their cause.

It is also very interesting that maege comunicated with bear island and it is likely that her 2 younger daughters joined her, however neither she nor galbart were present while mormont men tried to free galbart's castle. So it is safe to assume that they must be doing something they consider very important.

And for the future it is very interesting to think that alysanne spent weeks with an army of northnerns. Who knows how many men she might have tried to pull into supporting the will. At least she must have contacted the clansmen and the glover men.

 

On the other hand, given the clan chiefs strange behaviour towards the end of dance (jon thinks they are testing him) it makes sense that they could have learned about the will sometime after stannis visited them due to galbart glover and maege riding there. And given that jon's last chapters happen in a very short period of time and loads of things are happening it also makes sense that they hadn't made their decision yet about wether they will support jon leaving the NW in order to become their king. In adition, traveling between the neck and the clans should take a few months and if we add some time needed o butter up the clansmen it could explain why maege and galbart are absent from adwd events. They spend the entirety of the book traveling or talking with the clans.

 

I can be wrong, but it actualy looks like a pretty solid theory no? However could galbart and maege talked with more houses about suporting the will without fearing betrayal? Couldn't they have talked to jon after alys wedding? Or were they waiting for the clan's chiefs judgement and things calming down on the wall before aproaching jon in person?

 

 

[nyser1]

They need buy-in to have hard power backing that this is: legitimate, that they are willing to risk their necks to support an attained house against crown & Boltons, acceptance for Jon to leave the NW, and some socio-economic & military backing.

What they need to do is to get a major player (Manderly) on board and perhaps some smaller ones (like the Reeds). Then send ravens to every dam place they can possible in the North. Puts the Boltons on red alert but also immediately questions their hold. If they can rally support and undermine Bolton rule (whether via skirmishes or raids or popularity wise amongst rulers) they can position themselves well for a pitched battle. Or shadowbaby...

[divica]

6 minutes ago, nyser1 said:

They need buy-in to have hard power backing that this is: legitimate, that they are willing to risk their necks to support an attained house against crown & Boltons, acceptance for Jon to leave the NW, and some socio-economic & military backing.

What they need to do is to get a major player (Manderly) on board and perhaps some smaller ones (like the Reeds). Then send ravens to every dam place they can possible in the North. Puts the Boltons on red alert but also immediately questions their hold. If they can rally support and undermine Bolton rule (whether via skirmishes or raids or popularity wise amongst rulers) they can position themselves well for a pitched battle. Or shadowbaby...

You are forgeting a series of problems. First, at the beguining of feast wyman has a son taken hostage by the IT so they can't depend on his help. 

In adittion, as people don't know who is the LC at the beguining of feast maege and galbart can't go around anouncing that jon is robb's heir because if the LC is a bolton or IT supporter jon's life would be at risk.

You are thinking as if jon is in a safe position when he isn't. At the beguining of feast their strategy must be to search for suport but with a lot of caution. And that should limit the houses they can contact. 

[nyser1]

13 minutes ago, divica said:

You are forgeting a series of problems. First, at the beguining of feast wyman has a son taken hostage by the IT so they can't depend on his help. 

In adittion, as people don't know who is the LC at the beguining of feast maege and galbart can't go around anouncing that jon is robb's heir because if the LC is a bolton or IT supporter jon's life would be at risk.

You are thinking as if jon is in a safe position when he isn't. At the beguining of feast their strategy must be to search for suport but with a lot of caution. And that should limit the houses they can contact. 

I make no assumptions and these are good points. My ideas are what I would believe would be necessary should the chess pieces be in order. 
 

Variables such as Manderly’s son being hostage (which is resolved) may be resolved, evolve, or remain stagnant with time. 

[divica]

Just now, nyser1 said:

I make no assumptions and these are good points. My ideas are what I would believe would be necessary should the chess pieces be in order. 
 

Variables such as Manderly’s son being hostage (which is resolved) may be resolved, evolve, or remain stagnant with time. 

Oh I agree that they need a lot of support in order to force the NW to release jon and make the rest of the north accept that jon can leave the NW and become king.

I just disagree with how you said they could do it. At least at the beguining of feast. If you read the OP (that turned out to be a BIT huge) I try to give an hipotethesis about what they might have done based on the clues we have from the text (alysanne, lyanna and the clan chiefs) and the fact that they are mia. 

[Lord Varys]

Overall, it makes little sense that two minor lords could do anything at all in that department. Galbart Glover is a man without a castle, and Maege Mormont lives in a wooden longhall like Tormund. These are not the kind of people that could convince a majority of the North of anything. If you don't have the Dustins, Ryswells, Karstarks, Manderlys, and Umbers any such attempt would lead nowhere. And most of those folks are either plotting with the Boltons or Stannis or to restore Rickon Stark to Winterfell, not Jon Snow.

Even more so after Galbart is actually beholden to Stannis after the man restores Deepwood to the Glovers. Assuming he would want to create another king after that is like rooting for Edmure to declare himself the King of the Trident and the North after Robb saved his ass at Riverrun.

This entire idea of a Northern conspiracy to create some new king has no merit at all.

At best you can say there might be a conspiracy to deal with the Boltons, to get rid of them, etc.

But a new king would inevitably mean a new war. And who in war-torn, starving North would want that in winter? Nobody.

They want revenge and payback, but they do not want another war with another faction they have no issues with just so they can call their lord 'king'. That's not going to happen.

[Canon Claude]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Overall, it makes little sense that two minor lords could do anything at all in that department. Galbart Glover is a man without a castle, and Maege Mormont lives in a wooden longhall like Tormund. These are not the kind of people that could convince a majority of the North of anything. If you don't have the Dustins, Ryswells, Karstarks, Manderlys, and Umbers any such attempt would lead nowhere. And most of those folks are either plotting with the Boltons or Stannis or to restore Rickon Stark to Winterfell, not Jon Snow.

Even more so after Galbart is actually beholden to Stannis after the man restores Deepwood to the Glovers. Assuming he would want to create another king after that is like rooting for Edmure to declare himself the King of the Trident and the North after Robb saved his ass at Riverrun.

This entire idea of a Northern conspiracy to create some new king has no merit at all.

At best you can say there might be a conspiracy to deal with the Boltons, to get rid of them, etc.

But a new king would inevitably mean a new war. And who in war-torn, starving North would want that in winter? Nobody.

They want revenge and payback, but they do not want another war with another faction they have no issues with just so they can call their lord 'king'. That's not going to happen.

So do you think they will join Stannis once it’s clear that Rickon is alive?

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

So do you think they will join Stannis once it’s clear that Rickon is alive?

If they show up while Stannis is still alive, yes. Stannis freed Deepwood Motte from the Ironborn and Alysane Mormont joined Stannis as well.

I'd also expect that the Manderlys will be able to dominate the 'Stark restoration project' with their Rickon plan ... even more so since chances are not that bad that Davos will be delivering Rickon to Jon/Stannis and/or their people at the Wall rather than taking him back to White Harbor.

In addition, chances are also very high that Bran is going to reveal that he is still alive via the weirwood trees. This could even happen before the battle at Stannis' village considering the cliffhanger at the end of Theon 1 involves them visiting the weirwood island in the lake before the enemy arrives.

[Moiraine Sedai]

The north won't have much enthusiasm to follow an ice zombie unless they themselves are wighted.  An ex-lord commander who deserted his posts will have a steep hill to climb in terms of winning them over. Jon's better odds are the wildlings.  If they can overlook his overall lack of a heartbeat.  

[divica]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd also expect that the Manderlys will be able to dominate the 'Stark restoration project' with their Rickon plan ... even more so since chances are not that bad that Davos will be delivering Rickon to Jon/Stannis and/or their people at the Wall rather than taking him back to White Harbor.

Is this plan even still in motion? If wyman manderly isn't alive do you think his son will follow his plans?

Quote

None had any defiance left; especially not Ser Wylis, a bushy-faced tub of suet with dull eyes and sallow, sagging jowls. When Jaime told him that he would be escorted to Maidenpool and there put on a ship for White Harbor, Ser Wylis collapsed into a puddle on the floor and sobbed longer and louder than Pia had. It took four men to lift him back onto his feet. Too much roast goat, Jaime reflected. Gods, but I hate this bloody castle. Harrenhal had seen more horror in its three hundred years than Casterly Rock had witnessed in three thousand.

Does this look like a man that wants more war or opose the lannisters? Wylis is broken and has no defiance left. He won't be sending the manderleys into any conflict he might lose. And I have no idea what this sort of man would do if he gets rickon but it doubtful any of wyman's plans will be carried by wylis.

And it is obvious davos wouldn t take rickon to the wall. He knows that wyman wont support stannis until he gets rickon. So davos stoping at the wall is crazy. He needs to get to white arbor as fast as possible from his pov.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

n addition, chances are also very high that Bran is going to reveal that he is still alive via the weirwood trees. This could even happen before the battle at Stannis' village considering the cliffhanger at the end of Theon 1 involves them visiting the weirwood island in the lake before the enemy arrives.

Yeah, bran will surelly talk trough a tree and tell that he is bran and he is alive...

If grrm wanted people to know about bran being alive sam would have told jon about it. There is a reason why grrm wanted him to stay silent...

[divica]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Overall, it makes little sense that two minor lords could do anything at all in that department. Galbart Glover is a man without a castle, and Maege Mormont lives in a wooden longhall like Tormund. These are not the kind of people that could convince a majority of the North of anything. If you don't have the Dustins, Ryswells, Karstarks, Manderlys, and Umbers any such attempt would lead nowhere. And most of those folks are either plotting with the Boltons or Stannis or to restore Rickon Stark to Winterfell, not Jon Snow.

There is zero evidence that wyman shared the news about rickon. And houses like the dustins, karstark and ryswells wouldn't support wyman even if he had rickon. I have no idea why you got that idea...

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This entire idea of a Northern conspiracy to create some new king has no merit at all.

At best you can say there might be a conspiracy to deal with the Boltons, to get rid of them, etc.

But a new king would inevitably mean a new war. And who in war-torn, starving North would want that in winter? Nobody.

They want revenge and payback, but they do not want another war with another faction they have no issues with just so they can call their lord 'king'. That's not going to happen.

However we are told several times that nobody likes stannis. That the northerns don't like his fire god. That they won't tolerate weirwoods burning. That the northerns aren't happy with stannis burning people alive. And stannis has nearly no army left. Even if stannis wins his battles the northerns won't follow stannis.

And most important of all, do maege and galbart know about stannis sucesses? If they are with the clans or traveling there it is unlikely that they have heard the news until near the end of dance. 

So when maege and galbart start their strategy they have no idea what stannis will do later in the book. From their pov stannis is the man they refused to support during the war of the 5 kings. Why would they want to suport him now when they have robb's will?

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They want revenge and payback, but they do not want another war with another faction they have no issues with just so they can call their lord 'king'. That's not going to happen.

What they don't want is to call a southern king. Or fight the south to put stannis in the IT. You have to keep in mind that maege and galbart know nothing about the others. They are still thinking as robb was. So they have their issues with stannis.

[divica]

3 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The north won't have much enthusiasm to follow an ice zombie unless they themselves are wighted.  An ex-lord commander who deserted his posts will have a steep hill to climb in terms of winning them over. Jon's better odds are the wildlings.  If they can overlook his overall lack of a heartbeat.

The whole jon is dead or alive is debatable and deserves its own topic...

[Lord Lannister]

The problem with the GNC is why are the northern houses going to risk everything for Jon? There's everything to lose and little to gain by doing so. Sure there's the basic motivation of revenge, but Stannis can do that easily enough and he actually has a chance on paper. I honestly think the Northern Houses loyalty to House Stark is mostly overstated and seen through the filter of the Stark kids. Sure Manderly is taking a chance for Rickon, but he's already going after the Boltons and Freys and securing Rickon gives him a Stark he can groom to rule the North through himself. 

[divica]

10 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

The problem with the GNC is why are the northern houses going to risk everything for Jon? There's everything to lose and little to gain by doing so. Sure there's the basic motivation of revenge, but Stannis can do that easily enough and he actually has a chance on paper. I honestly think the Northern Houses loyalty to House Stark is mostly overstated and seen through the filter of the Stark kids. Sure Manderly is taking a chance for Rickon, but he's already going after the Boltons and Freys and securing Rickon gives him a Stark he can groom to rule the North through himself. 

I think we have to take into account that the GNC starts at the beguining of feast/dance and people tend to judge who would support the GNC based on the end of dance.

At the beguining of feast/dance stannis is an unknown and we know that northern lords would prefer to be ruled by a northern than a southern. It makes sense that there are lords suporting the stark cause because they are their northern rulers.

However I completly agree that there could be more loaylty to house stark in the north. The boltons, dustins and karstarks have no problem in betraying them. The ryswells will probably side with the dustins in this.  Then we have the IB that ocupied several castles in the north. To me a GNC is heavily dependent on the clans.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

Depending on how a few dominos fall, supporters of Robb may be in a better position than we think. 

The way I see it, it a few choice deaths and re-emergences of otherwise captive characters could put people who were loyal to Robb in control of much of the North

Opposition to Stannis and the possible conspiracy in the north is contested by the houses Bolton, Dustin, Karstark. Umber is currently loyal due to the captivity of the Great Jon. Frey provides additional support as a Riverland faction. Their strength is derived from saving their strength during the war fo five kings, and their part of the treachery during the red wedding (for some) and so have a great many soldiers compared to many northern houses.

on the other hand we Ryswell, Manderly, some Umbers, Glover, and Mormont support a stark or Stannis.

While the Bolton Block has limited heirs, the Stark-Stannis block has a good supply of heirs.

For Bolton, we have Roose and Ramsey, but they are not loved, and if both should die house Bolton may go extinct (as of yet i have failed to see any proper heir after Ramsey). they are the center of the pro-Lannister northern alliance.

House Dustin is in a similar situation in that lady distinguished has no issue and is not even a Dustin by blood. At her death, it is reasonable to assume that a member of house Ryswell may stand to inherit this land and title. Ryswell is Stark-Stannis Loyalist.

Karstark is otherwise detained, and with the marriage to house Thenn, more or less belong to Jon Snow and Stark-Stannis.

If the great Jon is released, he will probably support Robb's heir as one of Robb's greatest supporter during his life.

It is also notable that many of the Mormont Women seem to be spread out, and are most likely the liaisons of the message of the will to many great lords in the north.

Glover may be made loyal to Stannis though deepwood mott, but at present, loyal to Stannis and loyal to Jon are not such different positions.

And who knows what the Black Fish is cooking up in the Riverlands

Also, if Stannis were to die for any reason, especially if his daughter was already dead for any reason, Jon makes for a likely candidate for the Queensmen to cling on too and I wouldn't be surprised in that case if Stannis named Jon his heir, as Jon seems likely to be heavily involved with the True War and a likely successor to being in charge of that whole... situation. 

[Orion2]

yeh it makes a pretty solid theory. I suppose manderly and the clans could have been in contact. @divica

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The north won't have much enthusiasm to follow an ice zombie unless they themselves are wighted.  An ex-lord commander who deserted his posts will have a steep hill to climb in terms of winning them over. Jon's better odds are the wildlings.  If they can overlook his overall lack of a heartbeat.  

That isn't really the issue. The issue is that no self-respecting Northman would even look at a bastard black brother as a viable heir for Robb - regardless what Robb's will says.

If Robb had successfully gotten Jon out of the Watch and if he had formally anointed him his heir presumptive (he did plan to have children with Jeyne, after all) then there may be some merit to this. But the way things stand, there is no merit to this idea at all.

This is just wishful thinking.

2 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

The problem with the GNC is why are the northern houses going to risk everything for Jon? There's everything to lose and little to gain by doing so. Sure there's the basic motivation of revenge, but Stannis can do that easily enough and he actually has a chance on paper. I honestly think the Northern Houses loyalty to House Stark is mostly overstated and seen through the filter of the Stark kids. Sure Manderly is taking a chance for Rickon, but he's already going after the Boltons and Freys and securing Rickon gives him a Stark he can groom to rule the North through himself. 

Nobody would risk anything for Jon Snow.

The Rickon plan has merit, especially since not only Robett Glover and the Manderlys know that Bran and Rickon are still alive, but also the clansmen.

Overall, though, true loyalty to the Starks in the North is pretty much a joke. Nobody seems to have taken in either Bran or Rickon before they reached their respective destinations - and a Wull hung out with Bran and the Reeds for a night. If there was any big desire among them to restore the Starks to their rightful place that more would be going on in that direction.

I mean, people forget that Bran and Rickon went underground while Robb Stark still lived. They had no good reason to hide. Prior to the Red Wedding any Northmen not sworn to the Boltons would have informed King Robb immediately about what was going on.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, people forget that Bran and Rickon went underground while Robb Stark still lived. They had no good reason to hide. Prior to the Red Wedding any Northmen not sworn to the Boltons would have informed King Robb immediately about what was going on.

I'm not sure how fair it is to say they had no reason to hide. In Jojen's mind getting Bran to the Three Eyed Raven was paramount, and if people believed them both alive and on the run, the iron born may have looked for them or attacked any who may harbor them. And they didn't go on the run until after Ramsey's betrayal, so we have an established knowledge instilled in the kids that some north men are enemies. It was an act of extreme caution, but it does seem justified. better thought dead than know to be alive and hunted/exploited. 

 

As fo Jon, I think your right that his status as a black brother is beyond problematic, but I think its lily the she-bear accompanying Asha to the wall will also be witness to Jon's corpse and resurrection. He died. His watch ended. No Vows then right?

As for his status as a bastard, any Blackfyre rebellions sets precedent for a popular bastard being rallied behind.

[Orion2]

"smuggle me back my leige lord and...something like that. 

and also the part about the north remembers. basically everything manderly says to Davos is like I love the Starks and I want revenge. The whole set up with how the Starks helped the manderlys and stuff also.

and then there's the part about ned going to the clans, and there's the Glovers, and alys and the Reeds. Theres a lot of effort put into telling the reader who the stark allies are. I mean they exist. People really liked Ned. @Lord Varys

[divica]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, people forget that Bran and Rickon went underground while Robb Stark still lived. They had no good reason to hide. Prior to the Red Wedding any Northmen not sworn to the Boltons would have informed King Robb immediately about what was going on.

You do remember that it was osha that decided what to do with rickon and she knows little about the north. who knows what she thought was the best way to protect rickon? And bran wanted to go to the wall and beyhond. How would he do that if he went to one lord?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Overall, though, true loyalty to the Starks in the North is pretty much a joke. Nobody seems to have taken in either Bran or Rickon before they reached their respective destinations - and a Wull hung out with Bran and the Reeds for a night. If there was any big desire among them to restore the Starks to their rightful place that more would be going on in that direction.

That is pretty unfair and not true. 

First, the clansman talks about how things were great when the starks were in charge and that he wanted the wolves to rule again. And second, bran wants to go to the wall. What is the guy suposed to do? kidnap bran and force him into going to the clans? drop all his things and become bran's follower?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Rickon plan has merit, especially since not only Robett Glover and the Manderlys know that Bran and Rickon are still alive, but also the clansmen.

This is completly false. The clansmen know that bran was alive at some point in the past. As far as they know he could be dead now. And they have no idea about rickon.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody would risk anything for Jon Snow.

So maege and galbart should ignore robb's will and the last stark they know is alive? He is their only option of uniting the north under a northman against the boltons and IT.