The Battle of Meereen: Predictions and Summations

[BlackLightning]

On 9/11/2021 at 7:56 PM, StarksInTheNorth said:

It's been a while since I read the original somewhere on tumblr, but the general gist is that Barristan leads Team Dany in Battle of Meereen and wins. However, back in the Great Pyramid the Shavepate uses the chaos and distraction of the battle to kill Hizdahr for his crimes against Daenerys and then to kill the wards, pages, cupbearers, etc. for the same. He kept pushing to kill the children from the minute they were introduced, so finding an opportunity to do so won't be hard for him. And his distaste for Hizdahr is also pretty well-known to Dany and Barristan.

Barristan's death would come after he arrives back on the scene, filled with plans of how to save the city, and finds all of Dany's children dead along with her husband. He confronts Shavepate and tells him that this type of killing is treason against Dany. Shavepate either claims the city for his own people, i.e. the slaves and the Brazen Beast claiming Meereen as their own without Dany, or says Barristan wasn't willing to do what needed to be done and kills him for it.

My support for this is borne from a few things: Barristan died in Meereen in the show which could suggest a sort of trajectory (or it couldn't because who knows with anything after season 4ish); There's 3 POVs in Meereen at this point and the numbers of POVs will end up dwindling. Personally, I think both Victarion and Barristan die, but if not Barristan definitely will. Tyrion will be able to talk his way into the war planning meetings through Brown Ben Plumm so he can be the POV for a lot of necessary information, with the added element of focusing westward and not caring about Meereen's outcome. Whereas Barristan imo will never leave without a command or appearance from his queen.

(as an aside, I think it's less "Meereen is rejecting Dany" and more "Meereen makes a semi-autonomous decision to the point that she and/or her advisors are willing to let it go and won't see it turn into another Astapor because the Shavepate/Brazen Beasts have it under control so she can get on her way to Westeros").

 

Ah yes, Shavepate has made no real secret of his hatred and distrust for Hizdahr. He wasn't particularly fond of Quentyn either but I think he would've been Team Quentyn if Quentyn had been smart, open-minded or wise enough to make allies of his own at court.

The freedmen of Meereen claiming the city independent of Dany and actually putting in the work to keep it that way (unlike the Astapori) is a powerful and effective concept. I support that theory for many reasons, with only one of them being the fact that the TV show version left Meereen in the charge of one of her lieutenants and an army she basically created.

Barristan dying though? Ummm...I can see it going either way. The theory you presented is essentially flawless but Barristan could very well end up imprisoned or exiled for pushing back against Shavepate rather than slain. Dany won't be upset at all at Hizdahr's death and might come to accept that the execution of her hostages and children was necessary...but she would be livid if Barristan was to be slain--especially after saving the city from the Yunkish attack. Shavepate is a piece of work but he doesn't strike as stupid or disrespectful: which he would have to be to kill Barristan.

Barristan out of the way does leave room for Victarion and Tyrion to rise to power. They can get so powerful that even if Barristan survived and was released, he would not be able to do anything to them except for complain to Dany about them...which would put him in danger of becoming another Ser Jorah.

And that's something I think we all keep forgetting. What happens when Ser Jorah returns to Meereen and when Dany finds that he has returned?

On 9/11/2021 at 7:58 PM, StarksInTheNorth said:

The problem with all of this speculation is of course that we are acting as if GRRM had it ALL written at the same time

Although I'd push back on at least some of the Reek material and maybe also Wayward Bride because that all intersected nicely with Jon's POVs of Stannis.

The other option would be to potentially swap all the Cersei material and the Jon material so Jon was the 'leading' POV of AFFC and Dany was the 'leading' POV of ADWD, foiled simultaneously against Cersei's attempts at ruling. Cersei's material is shorter and so it might work out.

Jon being the lead POV of AFFC is a weird choice because all of the North stuff is tied to the Wall stuff in ADWD

But it can work.

On 9/11/2021 at 8:49 PM, SeanF said:

Piece of work though he is, the Shavepate is probably the most viable ruler for Meereen.  I too could see him ruling as archon in her name.  Assuming the slaver coalition is destroyed, then he'll have both a gendarmerie (the Brazen Beasts) and a standing army (the companies of freedmen) to protect the city.  

Shavepates are native Meereenese noblemen who willingly support and pledged fealty to Dany right and shave their heads to show their changed nature?

Yes, I agree.

[Jaenara Belarys]

On 8/11/2021 at 9:21 PM, SeanF said:

Yes, everyone thought the Corsairs' fleet had come to join the attackers, only to find out they were led by Aragorn.

"Come on you sea rats, get off yer ships!"

On 8/10/2021 at 12:45 PM, Brother Seamus said:

Quentyn is dead.

Euron has no control over any sell sword company in meereen or anyone else in meereen.

I strongly doubt Euron is going to Meereen.

I don't see anyone taking control of a dragon in connection with the battle of meereen.

Dany will come back well before the battle is over.

I suggest not trying to argue with him. He's stubborn beyond reasoning. 

 

 

My predictions: Ser Barristan and his men are going to kick ass and take names. Dragonhorn either doesn't work or makes Rhaegal and/or Viserion go nuts. Volantene fleet arrives, helps mop up the slavers. Dany arrives after battle with Dothraki hordes at her back. After finishing up the last bits of ruling Meereen she sails west to either Westeros or the other Free Cities to free more slaves. 

[Daenerysthegreat]

On 9/27/2021 at 12:13 AM, Jaenara Belarys said:

"Come on you sea rats, get off yer ships!"

I suggest not trying to argue with him. He's stubborn beyond reasoning. 

This Mr smikes seems like a troll to me he was also there in other threads. 

On 9/27/2021 at 12:13 AM, Jaenara Belarys said:

 

My predictions: Ser Barristan and his men are going to kick ass and take names. Dragonhorn either doesn't work or makes Rhaegal and/or Viserion go nuts. Volantene fleet arrives, helps mop up the slavers. Dany arrives after battle with Dothraki hordes at her back. After finishing up the last bits of ruling Meereen she sails west to either Westeros or the other Free Cities to free more slaves. 

I agree with everything except the last point. There is still qarth and asshai remaining. 

I know dany going to asshai seems strange since Mr Martin himself said that he won't go there. But how many years ago was this? 10-12, how many rewrites has Mr Martin done since then. There are too much mystery threads in both qarth and asshai to tie up. 

Plus the apocalypse is coming

[Jaenara Belarys]

7 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

This Mr smikes seems like a troll to me he was also there in other threads. 

 

He isn't a troll. That's about all I can say that wouldn't get me in trouble with the mods. 

7 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I know dany going to asshai seems strange since Mr Martin himself said that he won't go there. But how many years ago was this? 10-12, how many rewrites has Mr Martin done since then. There are too much mystery threads in both qarth and asshai to tie up. 

 

True. 

7 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I agree with everything except the last point. There is still qarth and asshai remaining. 

 

That's right. Forgot about Qarth. She's most likely not happy about the Qartheen involvement in the war. 

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

What if the Shavepate is actually the Harpy? He is using the Brazen Beasts to execute people in Dany's army he deems expendable to try and kill all of the major nobles in Mereen. I really hope Skahaz does go on a rampage and Barristan chases after him. I don't think Skahaz will be executed though. He will be give Lord Paramount of Slaver's Bay or Warden of the Slaver's Bay

[Daenerysthegreat]

16 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

What if the Shavepate is actually the Harpy? He is using the Brazen Beasts to execute people in Dany's army he deems expendable to try and kill all of the major nobles in Mereen. I really hope Skahaz does go on a rampage and Barristan chases after him. I don't think Skahaz will be executed though. He will be give Lord Paramount of Slaver's Bay or Warden of the Slaver's Bay

No he can't be, that sort of work requires a lot of secrecy which is sort of impossible. And why would the shavepate stop the killings for 90 days

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

12 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

No he can't be, that sort of work requires a lot of secrecy which is sort of impossible. And why would the shavepate stop the killings for 90 days

You're right, I forgot that the shavepate would have to stop the killings for the 90 days.

[BlackLightning]

On 9/29/2021 at 10:39 AM, Jaenara Belarys said:

That's right. Forgot about Qarth. She's most likely not happy about the Qartheen involvement in the war. 

She isn't happy. And the Dothraki themselves have a bone to pick with the Qartheen milk men anyway.

I think Qarth is going to be sacked and razed and burnt in The Winds of Winter after the situation with Meereen is resolved.

On 9/29/2021 at 1:49 PM, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

What if the Shavepate is actually the Harpy? He is using the Brazen Beasts to execute people in Dany's army he deems expendable to try and kill all of the major nobles in Mereen. I really hope Skahaz does go on a rampage and Barristan chases after him. I don't think Skahaz will be executed though. He will be give Lord Paramount of Slaver's Bay or Warden of the Slaver's Bay

I think the show had the right of it by taking Slaver's Bay and renaming it the Bay of Dragons

[Brother Seamus]

On 9/26/2021 at 2:43 PM, Jaenara Belarys said:

"Come on you sea rats, get off yer ships!"

I suggest not trying to argue with him. He's stubborn beyond reasoning. 

 

 

My predictions: Ser Barristan and his men are going to kick ass and take names. Dragonhorn either doesn't work or makes Rhaegal and/or Viserion go nuts. Volantene fleet arrives, helps mop up the slavers. Dany arrives after battle with Dothraki hordes at her back. After finishing up the last bits of ruling Meereen she sails west to either Westeros or the other Free Cities to free more slaves. 

yep. the sample chapters are setting us up for ser barristan and the mereenese to rout the yunkai et al.

how we get from the end of the battle to Dany leading an army off to westeros is unclear, it could go several different ways, but if it takes more than a week or two, maybe a month, and more than 3-4 chapers, I'll be very surprised.

Same for the journey from mereen to westeros. even with detours to volantis and/or pentos or elsewhere, it will be less than six months in story-time and more important no more than a half-dozen or so chapters.

GRRM has to wrap this baby up and he knows it, and it shouldn't be hard to do. of course, if he was 30 instead of 70+ he could continue to expand the story and work on this for the next 40 years. but he doesn't have that much time and he knows it.

[Brother Seamus]

On 8/10/2021 at 6:37 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Tatters, burnt beyond recognition, died on Dany's bed.  Quentyn is with Viserion at the Pyramid.  Tyrion missed something when he was in the tent, but when the commander rode up in a rage against the Windblown, it is because Archie's secret plan (that he could not tell Gerris in front of Barristan) succeeded.  Archie's plan to turn the Windblown has succeeded, but in a manner he could not explain in front of Barristan.

LOL, not even Victarion?  The text does not even make a secret that Victarion is Euron's puppet.

And if Euron has no connection in Essos, what the hell has he been up to for the past 15 years?  He clearly has ambitions that go beyond merely being a pirate.

Well, I would not exactly trust him.  But, in this case, why do you think he's lying?  Where would he be going if not where he says he is going, where he sent the entire iron fleet ahead of him, and where a climax of some kind is going to occur?

Well then, how will Dany get to Westeros after the battle is over, if the dragons are still uncontrolled?  Or will Dany not reach Westeros til book 7?

"OL, not even Victarion?  The text does not even make a secret that Victarion is Euron's puppet."

you're playing word games. obviously vic is there because euron sent him, but now he's thousands of miles away and can do what he wants. whatever you mean by "control" it's not the kind of control that counts, meaning that euron can make decisions and influence events.

 

 

"Well, I would not exactly trust him.  But, in this case, why do you think he's lying?  Where would he be going if not where he says he is going, where he sent the entire iron fleet ahead of him, and where a climax of some kind is going to occur?"

when does euron say he's going to mereen? he sent vic to fetch dany for him, so he's not going. seems clear. where does this certainty come from?

"and if Euron has no connection in Essos, what the hell has he been up to for the past 15 years?  He clearly has ambitions that go beyond merely being a pirate."

it seems pretty clear he wants the iron throne and dany and dragons.

 

 

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 hour ago, Brother Seamus said:

how we get from the end of the battle to Dany leading an army off to westeros is unclear, it could go several different ways, but if it takes more than a week or two, maybe a month, and more than 3-4 chapers, I'll be very surprised.

 

IMO, I think Dany sets sail for Westeros at the end of TWOW after going through the Free Cities (there's no point of talking about restless Volantene slaves if it won't go anywhere) and in that event then she'll have enough ships. 

[Mister Smikes]

16 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

you're playing word games. obviously vic is there because euron sent him, but now he's thousands of miles away and can do what he wants.

That's what Vic thinks.  That's why he agreed to go.  It's not too difficult to think that Vic has miscalculated and Euron is 2 steps ahead of him.

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whatever you mean by "control" it's not the kind of control that counts, meaning that euron can make decisions and influence events.

Well then, I guess Euron is just going to show up in person, and claim his dragons and his bride himself.  Won't Vic be disappointed.

Quote

when does euron say he's going to mereen?

At the Kingsmoot,  he tells them there are 3 dragons in the world, he knows where to find them, and he intends to bind the dragons to his will using the dragonbinder horn.

In the hold of the Silence, as they sail south from the Iron Islands, he tells Aeron they are sailing for "dragons".

At the Shields, he tells them that "we" are going to Slavers" Bay,  and they rebel.

Afterwards, Euron laments that he would bring them dragons, and they cry out for grapes.

In Asha's chapter, Asha says her nuncle is off "chasing dragons".

Again in the hold of the Silence, Euron tells Aeron he has no interest in holding either the Shields or the Seastone Chair, and expects the Shields to be lost.

Moqorro tells Tyrion that he has ordered his captain to steer the shortest course to reach Dany.  Why?  Because "others seek Danaerys too."   Among those "others" that Moqorro sees seeking Dany in his fires is "A tall and twisted thing with one black eye and ten long arms, sailing on a sea of blood."

The only time Euron implies he is NOT going, is when he is tricking Vic into going.

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he sent vic to fetch dany for him, so he's not going. seems clear.

Clear to Vic sure.  Vic thinks Euron is not going.  So Vic thinks there is nothing stopping him from claiming the bride and the dragons for himself.

Vic is stupid.

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it seems pretty clear he wants the iron throne and dany and dragons.

But not in that order.  He needs Dany and her dragons to take the Iron Throne.  And he means to claim them himself.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Mister Smikes

[BlackLightning]

(bump)

Any more ideas? GRRM's latest blog post features him talking about tackling Tyrion chapters.

Do you think he has already finished writing the Battle of Meereen? Are these Tyrion chapters taking place after the battles late in the book or do you think he's still working on it or revising it.

Edited July 2, 2022 by BlackLightning

[SeanF]

30 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

(bump)

Any more ideas? GRRM's latest blog post features him talking about tackling Tyrion chapters.

Do you think he has already finished writing the Battle of Meereen? Are these Tyrion chapters taking place after the battles late in the book or do you think he's still working on it or revising it.

The battle must have been finished years ago.  It’s one of the easiest parts to write.

[Sandy Clegg]

What part will the incoming Volantis fleet play, do we think? They seem like the joker in the pack so far, as it seems as though Illyrio has connections in Volantis still.

[GreyJohnUmber]

On 1/26/2023 at 12:15 AM, Sandy Clegg said:

What part will the incoming Volantis fleet play, do we think? They seem like the joker in the pack so far, as it seems as though Illyrio has connections in Volantis still.

I don't think they arrive until after the battle, it'll give the surviving POVs something to do until Dany gets back.

[BlackLightning]

On 7/2/2022 at 3:43 PM, SeanF said:

The battle must have been finished years ago.  It’s one of the easiest parts to write.

How so?

On 1/25/2023 at 8:15 AM, Sandy Clegg said:

What part will the incoming Volantis fleet play, do we think? They seem like the joker in the pack so far, as it seems as though Illyrio has connections in Volantis still.

Apparently, the joker in the pact is also the war elephants stationed outside the city.

Volantis fleet will likely turn in favor of Daenerys but the people inside the city wouldn't know that. So it would cause some crazy chaos. Maybe Tyrion or Shavepate kill Barristan Selmy because they believe Barristan incapable of effectively defending the city.

Yes, Illyrio does have connections in Volantis. I'm sure that Illyrio is going to be pro-Dany but, little does he know, that he is going to be in for a rude awakening.