Formula 1 2024

[Iskaral Pust]

Checo finally had a solid weekend and took advantage of a poor showing by Mercedes (does the sprint format leave them too little space to get the set-up right?).  4th still isn’t anything great but might be enough to solidify 2nd place in the WDC.

Verstappen’s ability and consistency are so normalized now they go unmentioned.  Does he even get any support for DotD any more?  Lando and Nando both put in excellent drives to get on the podium.  Norris has had a good string of races.

LeClerc had a miserable day.

[Werthead]

Given it's a very common problem even at well-established street circuits, the apparent failure of F1 to secure all the manhole covers in Vegas is a bit eyebrow-raising. Losing a whole day of operations (to the point they have to refund fans a third of their money) is an incredible failure.

All the people who predicated that a Vegas race would be a fiasco are rubbing their hands in glee. Hopefully it goes better tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the Disney+ F1 series on the 2009 season is excellent, even if it will do little to endear Christian Horner to anybody (dude it was 14 years ago, get a grip). Keanu Reeves is a surprisingly great presenter for this kind of thing, even if you have a nagging feeling that Bernie Ecclestone doesn't know who he is.

[Werthead]

Excellent mixed-up grid for the race tomorrow, but I'm not massively feeling the circuit. It feels like Singapore with a giant neon golfball dropped on the side of it. The aerial shots look great but the actual car-level shots make it feel pretty anonymous apart from Bono's Giant Electrotesticle (you can't really see the hotels from the ground due to the barriers, unless they light them up in a much bigger way for the race).

Still, outstanding qualifying for Williams even if you wonder if the race will sort itself out into the more traditional order over a full distance.

[TheLastWolf]

Eventful, unexpectedly

[williamjm]

I think that ended up being a better grand prix than a lot of people had thought that it might be. The surroundings are probably still more interesting than the track but it did work well in terms of offering overtaking opportunities without making them too easy. Perez lost out right at the end for the second race in a row, but still a good result considering how far back he started. Le Clerc probably got unlucky with the safety car timing, he was probably the favourite for the victory before that happened. Perhaps Ferrari should have pitted him under the safety car so that the Red Bulls wouldn't have fresher tires at the end.

[Iskaral Pust]

Redemption for the LVGP organizers because that was a pretty entertaining race, especially for a street circuit.  The track designer deserves some credit.  Unlucky for LeClerc with the SC timing, plus no Sainz to assist him in battling the two RBs.  There was a lot of good dueling throughout, and little margin for error.

Ferrari and Mercedes are unpredictable from week to week.  This time Ferrari had a big advantage in qualifying and then were able stay fast to the very end with only a single change of tires, although perhaps a second change under SC would have been a better chance to win.

[Werthead]

People are pulling up closer to the Red Bull but it's a bit too late in the day to really care too much.

It looks like Perez and Hamilton have now locked #2 and #3 in the championship and neither can now be caught even if both crashed out at the start of the next race. However, Alonso and Sainz are neck-and-neck in fourth on 200 points apiece, and Norris and Leclerc can both catch them. 

Ferrari are right up behind Mercedes (4 points behind) in the Constructors and unless there's a dramatic reversal of form, I can't see Mercedes holding them back. McLaren are only 11 points clear of Aston Martin in fourth, and Williams are only 7 points ahead of AlphaTauri, who are only 5 ahead of Alfa Romeo (who are only 4 ahead of Haas). So the midfield battle is still pretty intense.

I didn't realise the 2024 season starts in February, so not too long to wait. Hopefully a more competitive season.

[Iskaral Pust]

12 hours ago, Werthead said:

People are pulling up closer to the Red Bull but it's a bit too late in the day to really care too much.

It looks like Perez and Hamilton have now locked #2 and #3 in the championship and neither can now be caught even if both crashed out at the start of the next race. However, Alonso and Sainz are neck-and-neck in fourth on 200 points apiece, and Norris and Leclerc can both catch them. 

Ferrari are right up behind Mercedes (4 points behind) in the Constructors and unless there's a dramatic reversal of form, I can't see Mercedes holding them back. McLaren are only 11 points clear of Aston Martin in fourth, and Williams are only 7 points ahead of AlphaTauri, who are only 5 ahead of Alfa Romeo (who are only 4 ahead of Haas). So the midfield battle is still pretty intense.

I didn't realise the 2024 season starts in February, so not too long to wait. Hopefully a more competitive season.

I’ve said a few times that aside from Verstappen this has been a very competitive and interesting season as relative advantage has swung back and forth between other teams and drivers.  Norris and Alonso could have made that picture even tighter with outcomes at LV.

I wonder if 2024 will erode the aerodynamic design advantage of RB, or if they have a fresh design innovation up their sleeve.

[lmanion]

They have been using most of their wind tunnel time this season working on next year's car and haven't really updated the current car since mid season so I would guess the Bulls especially Max will have an increased advantage again at the start of next season, though not as big as the advantage this year. 

[Werthead]

Andretti bid to join F1 rejected.

Interesting analysis here. F1 do not believe that Andretti could conceivably build two completely different cars under two sets of different regulations for 2025 and 2026 and be competitive, and that they would inevitably be disappointing in performance due to relying on Renault engines until General Motors could be ready to build their PSU for 2028.

The suggestions seem to be that Andretti taking over one of the existing teams, or GM and Andretti joining at the same time, would both be much better-received options.

 

[BigFatCoward]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68163799

Hamilton to Ferrari next year would be a turn up for the books. 

[williamjm]

7 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/68163799

Hamilton to Ferrari next year would be a turn up for the books. 

If Sainz is getting displaced I wonder if he will move the other way to Mercedes? Alternatively, perhaps he might look to replace Perez at Red Bull from next season?

[Werthead]

Nobody saw that one coming, at least not this soon.

And yeah, it throws the market into turmoil. It was thought that Sainz was negotiating either a one-year extension for 2025 with a view to moving to Audi in 2026, or a 3+ year deal to secure his place at Ferrari, despite some misgivings about being a #2 driver to Leclerc. One rumour was that Leclerc has been more involved in the design stage and the 2024 car has been built around his driving style more than Sainz, which kind of negates that equality idea. However, Sainz also believed that he was not far off Leclerc's pace and could match him enough to have a shot at a championship all things being equal.

Now that's all out the window. Sainz could move to Sauber in 2025 instead to tee up for them becoming Audi in 2026. That might be more sensible. Sainz could also move to Mercedes on a one-year deal, which would give Audi a good chance to assess him going up against Russell; they'd then have a baseline for his performances versus Verstappen, Norris, Leclerc and Russell, four of the best drivers on the grid (to be honest Sainz has done pretty damn well against the first three of them, whilst not quite being on their pace). If Sainz excelled at Mercedes (Russell is probably the weakest of those four drivers, though of course still very good) he might also have a good shot of staying on for a while, although Toto is believed to be very keen to promote Andrea Antonelli ASAP. If Antonelli rinses Formula 2 this year, Toto might be very tempted to propel him directly into Mercedes in 2025 (which sounds insane, but Antonelli has near-Verstappen levels of hype around him, and he'll be 18 by then), though the smarter money is on a Williams stint first and a promotion to Merc in 2026 or 2027.

The other top drivers are all in contract, leaving only Alonso, who is out of contract in 2025 and may be considering retiring, but he might extend for one more year in a (hopefully) front-running team just to see how they do. Other possibilities could include a return for Bottas, but as that would be for one year only, he might consider it pointless to endanger a potential Audi seat for that. We know Wolff highly rates Hulkenberg and he was his second choice for 2017 if Bottas had turned him down, so that's also a reasonable possibility. Magnusson and Ocon would also be solid caretaker choices for a single or two seasons, hell, even Perez.

A very interesting choice would be Albon, who has impressed everyone in the Williams, although there is a question mark about his form under pressure. Putting him next to Russell at Mercedes could be an interesting move.

Edited February 1 by Werthead

[Werthead]

This off-season has been the craziest in some time.

Christian Horner is now being investigated for highly inappropriate behaviour at Red Bull towards a female colleague, which he is vigorously denying. However, Red Bull's parent company have stepped in to handle the investigation (overruling the racing team's internal HR process) and have brought in external investigators. Reportedly they are keen to avoid damage to the brand and they do not want it hanging over them for the car launch on 15 February, let alone the season start on 29 February, so unless they can wrap this up very quickly in Horner's favour, it looks like he might be booted. Also, the relationship between the parent company in Salzburg and the race team in Milton Keynes has become more fractious since Dietrich Mateschitz passed away in 2022, with apparent rumours of a rift between Horner and the new owners.

This is coinciding with a crazy rumour that's picked up about Ferrari making a much more serious approach to Adrian Newey than previously, and Newey saying in previous interviews that he'd love to have worked with Ferrari and/or Lewis Hamilton on his CV, and he can now do both with a single move. Newey is 65 though, so if he was to leave Red Bull you'd assume it would be into retirement.

Edited February 6 by Werthead

[Werthead]

Yikes. The Horner story is escalating with Dutch media publishing a story suggesting that he offered the complainant £650,000 to STFU and now Ford are carefully considering their relationship with Red Bull as more details come to light.

The more this drags on, the more damage it will do to Red Bull. They probably need to nip this in the bud by getting rid of him now, or risk losing more face and more staff.

In the meantime, the new Red Bull car seems to take a lot of ideas from the 2023 Mercedes, which is an interesting choice.

[Lord of Oop North]

On 2/16/2024 at 12:42 PM, Werthead said:

Yikes. The Horner story is escalating with Dutch media publishing a story suggesting that he offered the complainant £650,000 to STFU and now Ford are carefully considering their relationship with Red Bull as more details come to light.

The more this drags on, the more damage it will do to Red Bull. They probably need to nip this in the bud by getting rid of him now, or risk losing more face and more staff.

In the meantime, the new Red Bull car seems to take a lot of ideas from the 2023 Mercedes, which is an interesting choice.

Isn't the Dutch paper reporting on this, De Telegraaf , basically a tabloid? 

[Werthead]

12 hours ago, Lord of Oop North said:

Isn't the Dutch paper reporting on this, De Telegraaf , basically a tabloid? 

They are, but they have some insider lines in F1 and some of their previous reporting has been pretty solid. Everyone else is being more circumspect.

Some wilder rumours - not from the tabloid - that Jos is keeping the Dutch tabloids informed of insider info (which he is getting via Max) because he was unsettled by reports that Horner has been talking to Alonso, Hamilton and Norris, and he wants a very firmly inferior #2 driver to ensure Max is not outshone. Take all of that with a pinch of salt though.

Edited February 18 by Werthead

[Iskaral Pust]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

They are, but they have some insider lines in F1 and some of their previous reporting has been pretty solid. Everyone else is being more circumspect.

Some wilder rumours - not from the tabloid - that Jos is keeping the Dutch tabloids informed of insider info (which he is getting via Max) because he was unsettled by reports that Horn has been talking to Alonso, Hamilton and Norris, and he wants a very firmly inferior #2 driver to ensure Max is not outshone. Take all of that with a pinch of salt though.

This is the kind of cut-throat politicking and strategy we expect from F1, whether true or not.

Since driver salaries are not part of the F1 budget cap, I wondered if the big teams would try to reassert their financial advantage through driver super-teams, running the risk that it helps win the WCC while potentially splitting the points and losing the WDC.

The ideal second driver, from the POV of a title-chasing first driver, is Merc-era Bottas.  Checo made some positive contribution as the Ministry Of Defense in Verstappen’s first WDC title but has been a non-factor since.  Max could use a better partner but not too much better.

[Werthead]

There seems to be a general consensus that the Alpine car was the worst performer on the grid in testing and looked dogshit in a way that even the Haas couldn't compete with. Interesting to see if that remains the case. The Renault engine seems to be universally agreed to have the poorest power output on the grid as well. Renault/Alpine need to seriously think about what they're doing there. Otherwise Red Bull looks very impressive, maybe not quite as dominant in 2023 but there's not a lot in it, with a big step up from Mercedes and a minor one from Ferrari. Aston Martin and McLaren seem on a par around fourth place. RB Visa WTF (the artist formerly known as AlphaTauri/Toro Rosso) and Williams seem in a similar place right behind them. Difficult to see where Sauber Kick Stake Vampire Bollocks are at the moment. Haas might as well put up the FOR SALE sign at this juncture. Of course, too many variables in testing to really say for sure.

Drive to Survive S6 opening with Christmas in the Horner household and the Father Christmas they hired asking, "Has Daddy been good this year?" is maximum WTF. Then Nyck de Vries saying he's a better driver than Yuki Tsunoda and then having his arse comprehensively handed to him.

Lance Stroll breaking his wrists, returning to the grid in pain and Lando immediately asking, "Can you have a wank yet?" is peak Norris. Also Fred Vasseur is comedy gold (keeps enquiring about Sainz's love life when the camera is on them), and Steiner and Binotto's bromance in the vineyards of Italy feels like a pilot for a new spin-off show.

[BigFatCoward]

Ha, from elation to despair in 24 hours. Horner is a dirty slag, wonder why the messages weren't shared prior though, I guess there's a chance they aren't legit.