Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[Werthead]

Sorry, didn't see that had already been posted. Things moving very quickly.

It looks like the Russians were building defences facing to the south from Izyum, because they detected a huge buildup around Slovyansk, but couldn't confirm if that was a reinforced defensive line against a possible renewed Russian offensive (maybe using the 3rd Army Corps) or a buildup for an offensive towards the Donets and Lyman. They were blindsided by Ukrainian forces attacking in strength from the west. And now they're warning the Slovyansk forces might not be for the Donets but for Izyum itself, which is currently being cut off from the north. Losing Izyum would be immense, almost as bad as losing Kherson (and Ukrainian forces are still advancing around Kherson, but it sounds like they've been kicked off the front page by Kharkiv, whilst Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia are under a total news blackout order for some reason; possibly they don't want to telegraph what's going on with the Russians threatening the nuclear plant).

Not sure what's going on with the 3AC. It sounds like they were going to be committed to the Kharkiv front but with the front collapsing they might be needed to steady the line rather than go on the offensive, and it's unclear where they are going to be sent. They could be sent directly over the border to try to distract the Ukrainians, but they lack the strength to threaten Kharkiv City, especially with all their supporting troops to the east currently running in the wrong direction.

ETA: The Ukrainians have captured Nova Husarivka SE of Bayrak on the south side of the Donets. That's widening the Kharkiv salient quite a lot. If they can coordinate their advance north and south of the Donets and envelop the M03, they doesn't give the Russians any viable defensive line west of the Oskil. Nova Husarivka is also just over 21 miles from Izyum to the NW.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia are under a total news blackout order for some reason; possibly they don't want to telegraph what's going on with the Russians threatening the nuclear plant).

I feel like the Ukrainians are being pretty aggressive with thier PsyOps and this could easily be another one.  Maybe it's another offensive?  Maybe it's just a bluff?  Regardless, some of the Russian milbloggers are talking about the possibility of an attack there as well, which contributes to the generally apocalyptic tone for the Russian side the past few days. 

As for the 3AC, everything I've seen indicated this group is anything from 7-15k troops of questionable quality.  That's not worthless, it's enough troops to definitely help shore up the defense of Izyum and Lyman (which I agree, would be a catastrophe for Russia to lose).  But the idea that it is going to regain the initiative on either of the major fronts sounds like a fairy tale.  If they try to strike out towards Kharkiv itself, that is going to be a one way trip, because they'll get isolated and crushed in short order. 

[Wilbur]

As the Ukrainian forces advance, photos of overrun Russian locations are showing up on social media.

So far the most notable one for me features Russian 152mm ammo with manufacture dates of 1964.

1964.  Almost sixty-year-old munitions.  I keep shotgun shells that are older than ten years in a hard container and periodically hand them in for disposal.  I can't imagine being required to handle / transport / load / fire ammo that is nearly sixty years old without feeling sweaty and nervous.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Some news about Kherson:

 

[Wade1865]

2 hours ago, Gorn said:

And Ukrainians said that their offensive planning includes even the possibility of Russians using a tactical nuclear strike.

Gorn -- it's a sensible wargaming consideration, albeit unlikely in reality. On the other hand, given the failure of Vladimir's limited waves of mobilization, and UKR's increasingly successful counteroffensives, what if Vladimir can't even hold his modest gains before annexation?

Accept defeat -- it's not unprecedented, even for superpowers at various points in history (UK, USA, USSR). General mobilization -- though it would appear too risky, given the revealed state of RUS's combat power. Tactical nuclear weapons -- likewise, too risky as well as irrational, given the (now) more limited political goals of holding small portions of territory.

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Wade1865 said:

Gorn -- it's a sensible wargaming consideration, albeit unlikely in reality. On the other hand, given the failure of Vladimir's limited waves of mobilization, and UKR's increasingly successful counteroffensives, what if Vladimir can't even hold his modest gains before annexation?

What do you mean by before annexation?  I don't see any Russian claim of annexation being at all meaningful in this conflict.  Putin could announce Kherson to be part of Russia tomorrow and vow to defend it with all Russian resources.  Nothing would change - the Ukrainians certainly wouldn't stop. 

[Wade1865]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

What do you mean by before annexation?  I don't see any Russian claim of annexation being at all meaningful in this conflict.  Putin could announce Kherson to be part of Russia tomorrow and vow to defend it with all Russian resources.  Nothing would change - the Ukrainians certainly wouldn't stop. 

Maithanet -- yes, that's my point; annexation will prove unsuccessful now that UKR has leverage (which it didn't have following the annexation of Donbas and Crimea, when annexation proved useful). It makes the current situation a decision point for Vladimir. Hence, with annexation at risk (i.e., UKR won't stop its recent momentum), what options remain? Defeat, tactical nuclear weapons, general mobilization -- what else? I think that's it.

[Wade1865]

10 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

War is good for business as the Ferengi say.

Luzifer's right hand -- hahaha, yes, of course; it's a fascinating racket, isn't it! The right hand of Satin would know this. War and business are fundamental human expressions of risk vs reward, and certainly applicable to the RUS invasion of UKR. One has to play to find out what one's reward is, though.

Which piece would you choose to be during a game of chess. Make a choice before you read the spoiler.

Spoiler

None, of course; one would choose to be the player. Though, interestingly, at the end of the game, the player goes into a box just as surely as the pieces.

 

[Werthead]

The Russians are making a lot of noise about apparently securing Adiivka to the north of Donetsk, a position that they should have really consolidated months ago. Even that seems to be a very qualified success because Ukrainian forces seem to have re-secured positions on the outskirts of Pisky to the south-west, from where they were repulsed a few weeks ago in a barrage of thermobaric weapons. That seems to be the sole success the Russians can crow about.

Meanwhile, Wagner mercenaries have apparently been captured in Kharkiv, and Russian forces have been withdrawn from Lyman northwards, which is a really stupid idea. The Ukrainian forces at Slovyansk could break through in the direction of Lyman relatively easily, you don't want to be pulling troops from there. That's pure desperation.

The Russians mounted a major counter-attack in Kherson, trying to recapture Yakovlivka to shore up the lines towards Davydiv Brid. That appeared to fail, angry Telegram messages that they were ordered to attack a heavily defended position with inferior numbers and no reinforcements. The Ukrainians apparently immediately counter-attacked and push back Russian forces. An artillery division in Kherson has also apparently left its equipment and ran after more than two-thirds of its personnel were wiped out in a direct assault (artillery troops usually aren't supposed to be engaged in direct combat on the front lines).

There's also now reports of Russian surrenders along the line in Kharkiv. At least "hundreds" taken prisoner. The Russians encircled in Balakliya have also apparently tried to stage a breakout, which seems to have failed. The town now seems to be fully in Ukrainian hands apart from the Russians holed up in buildings in the town centre. The Russians also seem to be trying to reestablish the pontoon crossings over the Dnipro despite them being pre-zeroed and in some cases now in short and mid-range of artillery, not just HIMARs, which seems unwise.

Looks like a second Ukrainian offensive force has crossed into the area of contest in Kharkiv to support the attack. There seems to be disagreement about whether Ukraine can take Kupyansk quickly or if that would a bridge too far, but Ukraine is reinforcing the success they've had so far. Ukrainian forces do appear to have reached the outskirts of Shevchenkovo, which by itself is crazy. From west of Shevchenkovo they can collapse the Oskil crossings, trapping huge numbers of Russians west of the river (the Oskil north and east of Shevchenkovo widens quite considerably, almost to Dnipro levels, so it's not very easy to cross).

[Werthead]

Russian Telegram messages from soldiers in Shevchenkove saying the Ukrainians attacked the town but apparently in a reconnaissance designed to identify Russian positions. Once they were identified, the Ukrainians left screening troops and apparently moved to the east of the town to cut off their lines of supply and communication towards Kupyansk. Now the Russians are panicking that the Ukrainians are already attacking Kupyansk by land (it's been under artillery attack for two days) and will cut them off altogether. The Ukrainians are saying nothing, other than confirming they've already reached Shevchenkove, which was unthinkable a couple of days ago.

If the Ukrainians do reach Kupyansk tonight, that will represent an advance of 50 miles, or 80 km, in about 36 hours.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

48 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Russian Telegram messages from soldiers in Shevchenkove saying the Ukrainians attacked the town but apparently in a reconnaissance designed to identify Russian positions. Once they were identified, the Ukrainians left screening troops and apparently moved to the east of the town to cut off their lines of supply and communication towards Kupyansk. Now the Russians are panicking that the Ukrainians are already attacking Kupyansk by land (it's been under artillery attack for two days) and will cut them off altogether. The Ukrainians are saying nothing, other than confirming they've already reached Shevchenkove, which was unthinkable a couple of days ago.

If the Ukrainians do reach Kupyansk tonight, that will represent an advance of 50 miles, or 80 km, in about 36 hours.

Do you know when “the Institute for war” updates its maps?  They’re still on their 9/6 map.

[Werthead]

35 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Do you know when “the Institute for war” updates its maps?  They’re still on their 9/6 map.

Their interactive map is showing some (not quite all) of the latest advances.

[ThinkerX]

So... Ukraine pulls this off, then what Putin's options for any sort of realistic face-saving solution?

 

[The Anti-Targ]

I feel like Russia needs to overthrow Putin and then retreat and calling this whole thing Putin's folly that no one but Putin wanted, so none of the rest of us should be held to account.

Unless the world powers opposed to the invasion think Putin is at all capable of admitting and accepting defeat, it seems cutting the head off the snake is pretty much essential, and cross fingers it doesn't turn out to be a hydra.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

So... Ukraine pulls this off, then what Putin's options for any sort of realistic face-saving solution?

 

Nukes

[ThinkerX]

3 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Nukes

Sadly, I concur. 

However, given how monumentally corrupt Russia is and known maintenance issues elsewhere, that move would have a non-zero chance of blowing up in Putin's face on technical grounds alone.

Plus, there is also the non-zero possibility that Putin's inner circle might deem such an order a step too far. 

And even if it did happen, there would be a *lot* of extremely pissed people in the areas getting hit by the fallout, especially in Russia proper. 

It would also kill any hope of getting sanctions on Russia removed or eased.

[Clueless Northman]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I feel like Russia needs to overthrow Putin and then retreat and calling this whole thing Putin's folly that no one but Putin wanted, so none of the rest of us should be held to account.

Except most of political goons have openly supported the "operation" and many are even more hardcore than Putin (and probably more delusional). Will be tough to achieve such an outcome.

As for nukes, that's imho the one thing that can push Putin's inner circle or military brass to make a coup and remove him, whatever the way. I also suspect he's aware of that or at least assumes it would be an option. I don't think he'd seriously consider this unless Crimea were overrun and Sevastopol threatened, or Russia proper faced a genuine invasion.

[Wade1865]

41 minutes ago, KalVsWade said:

Nukes

31 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Sadly, I concur.

ThinkerX et al. -- no, absolutely not (though I suspect KalVsWade was being facetious)!

Vladimir miscalculated but he's not irrational. He's not going to throw the world into nuclear holocaust. Remember, he has family and so do his subordinates including missileers. His compelled Decision Point (DP) will be subject to UKR will and capacity (i.e., territorial liberation beyond 2014 borders), when his options become 1) defeat (most likely); 2) general mobilization (least likely); and 3) tactical nuclear exchange (hahahaha, no).

Any face-saving measures will originate out of UKR, and I believe it would be in its interests to either halt at or before the 2014 borders, prior to Vladimir's compelled DP.

[The Anti-Targ]

18 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Except most of political goons have openly supported the "operation" and many are even more hardcore than Putin (and probably more delusional). Will be tough to achieve such an outcome.

As for nukes, that's imho the one thing that can push Putin's inner circle or military brass to make a coup and remove him, whatever the way. I also suspect he's aware of that or at least assumes it would be an option. I don't think he'd seriously consider this unless Crimea were overrun and Sevastopol threatened, or Russia proper faced a genuine invasion.

The option is on the table for the powers that be to collectively agree to say that it is all and only Putin's fault. The whole world operates on an uncountable number of agreed fictions, what's one more to get us past this mess sooner rather than later. At the same time agree to help re-build Russia because the damage that devil Putin caused, all by himself with no help from anyone else of course, should not be laid at the feet off the Russian people to suffer and perish. And give some equally fictitious guarantees about Russian security, NATO etc etc. And we can kick the can down the road a decade or so and see what happens.

[Kalbear]

33 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

ThinkerX et al. -- no, absolutely not (though I suspect KalVsWade was being facetious)!

Vladimir miscalculated but he's not irrational. He's not going to throw the world into nuclear holocaust. Remember, he has family and so do his subordinates including missileers. His compelled Decision Point (DP) will be subject to UKR will and capacity (i.e., territorial liberation beyond 2014 borders), when his options become 1) defeat (most likely); 2) general mobilization (least likely); and 3) tactical nuclear exchange (hahahaha, no).

Any face-saving measures will originate out of UKR, and I believe it would be in its interests to either halt at or before the 2014 borders, prior to Vladimir's compelled DP.

I was not being facetious, putin is irrational, and nukes are a very clear way of telling the world not to fuck with russia.

Also, it is very unlikely to cause a nuclear war. The US is war gaming right now with Ukraine with the possibility that Russia uses tac nukes. You don't do that if you also have your escalation to be nuke the world.