Shade of the Evening Post 1st Edition

[Curled Finger]

9 hours ago, LongRider said:

@Curled Finger our intrepid reporter, what else is in the news?  Inquiring minds want to know!   

I had a lot of fun with this little corner of the forum and thank you  for participating in a conversation I actually enjoyed a great deal for all its twists and turns.   Lots to think about, particularly with Miss Jeyne.  I reckon we shall see what hallucinations vs truth are conjured up during the next smoke session and report as soon as our ability to spell is recovered.   It is tempting to blow the top off all things happening in the Vale but it is so speculative at this stage...  

[Hugorfonics]

16 hours ago, Nevets said:

My guess is she'll wind up in Braavos and run into Arya.  Should be an interesting reunion.

I never got that theory, what reason would she have to go to Braavos?

That's she'll meet up with Arya I have no doubt though, but in Winterfell, or at least up North. 

I think everyone is headed north eventually, I mean I'm not entirely convinced that like Tyrion Cersei Jaime Sam and Dany will be camping but pretty much every other character, AryaX2 Sansa Catelyn Theon Jon Bran etc, will be in Winterfell, or at least the North. 

I don't really see Alayne spending more then like 2 or 3 chapters in the Vale.

 

Petyr says he's responsible for the war of 5 kings and yet is confident that he's also going to be responsible for the war of three queens.

Some suggestions like Arianna or Jeyne W don't really make sense, while conservative guesses like Cersei Marge Seleyse and Dany aren't that bad. 

But it's not personable. So if Sansas one, then can the other be Arya and the third being rArya? (Although how Petyr would know the real Arya is alive and coming home, idk)

[Curled Finger]

8 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I never got that theory, what reason would she have to go to Braavos?

That's she'll meet up with Arya I have no doubt though, but in Winterfell, or at least up North. 

I think everyone is headed north eventually, I mean I'm not entirely convinced that like Tyrion Cersei Jaime Sam and Dany will be camping but pretty much every other character, AryaX2 Sansa Catelyn Theon Jon Bran etc, will be in Winterfell, or at least the North. 

I don't really see Alayne spending more then like 2 or 3 chapters in the Vale.

 

Petyr says he's responsible for the war of 5 kings and yet is confident that he's also going to be responsible for the war of three queens.

Some suggestions like Arianna or Jeyne W don't really make sense, while conservative guesses like Cersei Marge Seleyse and Dany aren't that bad. 

But it's not personable. So if Sansas one, then can the other be Arya and the third being rArya? (Although how Petyr would know the real Arya is alive and coming home, idk)

My buddy Nevets and I have been together a very very long time, back to my very 1st topic.  That thing ran forever about the reduction of POVs in TWOW.  I was privy to some fantastic ideas then (as a naïve new reader).  Now I'm not sure it was Nevets or bemused or dornish dame, but one of them had the idea that Jeyne would end up at the HOB&W and Arya would hear her tortured story and ultimately take her face and make her way home.  This is an interesting take on things and I love a dark corner where things might could happen.  As I am fond of saying, it's just an idea, but a damned interesting idea.  

When I first heard the idea of the Vale army riding on Winterfell I thought it was preposterous, the most absurd thing ever.  2 years later I watched it play out on the small screen.  It was every bit as silly as I thought it would be, though glorious to behold just in the nick of time.  We all know the Vale was itchy and scratchy to get involved in something though I think they are also getting a little complacent in their get rich schemes with Baelish.  He's becoming a rock star as I read Alayne in TWOW.  So I have to ask, are they really interested in getting involved in anything any more?  

Of course the major players will all head north.  But that is likely an entire book away.  Lots of moving about before then.  TWOW won't end anything, except possibly the Essos portion of the tale.  We might get everyone who counts headed in the right direction, but not there, not by a long shot.  Martin has no mercy in him.  This blasted thing will drag out forever.  

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

I never got that theory, what reason would she have to go to Braavos?

That's she'll meet up with Arya I have no doubt though, but in Winterfell, or at least up North. 

I think everyone is headed north eventually, I mean I'm not entirely convinced that like Tyrion Cersei Jaime Sam and Dany will be camping but pretty much every other character, AryaX2 Sansa Catelyn Theon Jon Bran etc, will be in Winterfell, or at least the North. 

I don't really see Alayne spending more then like 2 or 3 chapters in the Vale.

 

Petyr says he's responsible for the war of 5 kings and yet is confident that he's also going to be responsible for the war of three queens.

Some suggestions like Arianna or Jeyne W don't really make sense, while conservative guesses like Cersei Marge Seleyse and Dany aren't that bad. 

But it's not personable. So if Sansas one, then can the other be Arya and the third being rArya? (Although how Petyr would know the real Arya is alive and coming home, idk)

In the Theon preview chapter, Stannis sends Jeyne to Castle Black to reunite with her "brother".  She is accompanied by, among others, Justin Massey and Tycho Nestoris, the banker.  Given Jon's condition and Ramsay's threats, it is likely she will continue on to Braavos.  Theon has advised her to keep the masquerade and she agreed.  So I suspect GRRM has plans for her to stay Arya.

56 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

My buddy Nevets and I have been together a very very long time, back to my very 1st topic.  That thing ran forever about the reduction of POVs in TWOW.  I was privy to some fantastic ideas then (as a naïve new reader).  Now I'm not sure it was Nevets or bemused or dornish dame, but one of them had the idea that Jeyne would end up at the HOB&W and Arya would hear her tortured story and ultimately take her face and make her way home.  This is an interesting take on things and I love a dark corner where things might could happen.  As I am fond of saying, it's just an idea, but a damned interesting idea.  

When I first heard the idea of the Vale army riding on Winterfell I thought it was preposterous, the most absurd thing ever.  2 years later I watched it play out on the small screen.  It was every bit as silly as I thought it would be, though glorious to behold just in the nick of time.  We all know the Vale was itchy and scratchy to get involved in something though I think they are also getting a little complacent in their get rich schemes with Baelish.  He's becoming a rock star as I read Alayne in TWOW.  So I have to ask, are they really interested in getting involved in anything any more?  

Of course the major players will all head north.  But that is likely an entire book away.  Lots of moving about before then.  TWOW won't end anything, except possibly the Essos portion of the tale.  We might get everyone who counts headed in the right direction, but not there, not by a long shot.  Martin has no mercy in him.  This blasted thing will drag out forever.  

I do not think she will go to the House of Black and White. My guess is that Arya finds out "Arya" is in town and decides to pay a visit, probably at the banker's house.

She won't take Jeyne's face.  That would be massively stupid.  Jeyne has only enemies that would recognize her.  Arya has friends that would recognize her.  I think Jeyne could be the catalyst that causes Arya to return to Westeros.  If so, I think she takes Jeyne along, both to avoid abandoning her and because two are safer than one.

 

[Hugorfonics]

44 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

My buddy Nevets and I have been together a very very long time, back to my very 1st topic.  That thing ran forever about the reduction of POVs in TWOW.  I was privy to some fantastic ideas then (as a naïve new reader).  Now I'm not sure it was Nevets or bemused or dornish dame, but one of them had the idea that Jeyne would end up at the HOB&W and Arya would hear her tortured story and ultimately take her face and make her way home.  This is an interesting take on things and I love a dark corner where things might could happen.  As I am fond of saying, it's just an idea, but a damned interesting idea.  

When I first heard the idea of the Vale army riding on Winterfell I thought it was preposterous, the most absurd thing ever.  2 years later I watched it play out on the small screen.  It was every bit as silly as I thought it would be, though glorious to behold just in the nick of time.  We all know the Vale was itchy and scratchy to get involved in something though I think they are also getting a little complacent in their get rich schemes with Baelish.  He's becoming a rock star as I read Alayne in TWOW.  So I have to ask, are they really interested in getting involved in anything any more?  

Of course the major players will all head north.  But that is likely an entire book away.  Lots of moving about before then.  TWOW won't end anything, except possibly the Essos portion of the tale.  We might get everyone who counts headed in the right direction, but not there, not by a long shot.  Martin has no mercy in him.  This blasted thing will drag out forever.  

Regarding the Vale and all these honorable knights, 20 years ago they conquered Westeros on Robert and Ned's behalf, why not do it again but this time for a pretty face.

That Mrs. Halfhands troops are near by, and that thread of the Burned Mens Timmet may be Lord Roberts heir, is just terrific.

 

So on one side I get defensive about Essos, because I think it's super chill out there, elephants and tigers? Like give me more please. However in the depths of my heart I realize it's not about Essos. Essos is a distraction. Like the south.

Party uptown. Is there still for room for distraction? Honestly it's getting less and less. Affc and a bulk of adwd is specifically in distraction mode, nevertheless Theon raised the curtain to the Northern Theater when he conquered MC in early adwd and our first star Roose enters stage left. Yet the prelude was already exemplified in asos, with the Greyjoys leaving, Robb dying and Stannis arriving.

If Roose is our star we must know that Ramsay is jealous as the supporting role. Jeyne is a great stand in of course but if the cast calls for an Arya Stark it calls for Arya Stark. Theon, who deserves a fucking Tony for the first act, is also the stage hand, hence Roose entering stage left but now that it's open Mallister the southron is coming to declare Jon king of the North to Reed who in turn acknowledges the son of Rhaegar as king of the Trident. Enter stage right, King Snow. 

Who's our star? The playbill says Roose yet all other names mentioned have been featured more, on top is Rickon Davos Wyman Sansa Catelyn (the part of Catelyn Stark tonight will be played by Lady Stoneheart) Mance Melisandre and Moonboy for all I know 

[Hugorfonics]

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

In the Theon preview chapter, Stannis sends Jeyne to Castle Black to reunite with her "brother".  She is accompanied by, among others, Justin Massey and Tycho Nestoris, the banker.  Given Jon's condition and Ramsay's threats, it is likely she will continue on to Braavos.  Theon has advised her to keep the masquerade and she agreed.  So I suspect GRRM has plans for her to stay Arya.

So she can be a banker or a sellsword? 

If Jon's afk atm then Bowen will send her back to Bolton, if wildlings rule they'll keep her safe personally, if Seleyse does she'll follow the orders of her husband and keep her at the wall. 

If Jon is back, then I still don't understand why he'd send her to Essos and what he'd expect she'd do there or what she expects she will do.

I agree tho that fArya is probably sticking around for a while. My guess to tangle with Sansa and rArya

[Curled Finger]

20 minutes ago, Nevets said:

In the Theon preview chapter, Stannis sends Jeyne to Castle Black to reunite with her "brother".  She is accompanied by, among others, Justin Massey and Tycho Nestoris, the banker.  Given Jon's condition and Ramsay's threats, it is likely she will continue on to Braavos.  Theon has advised her to keep the masquerade and she agreed.  So I suspect GRRM has plans for her to stay Arya.

I do not think she will go to the House of Black and White. My guess is that Arya finds out "Arya" is in town and decides to pay a visit, probably at the banker's house.

She won't take Jeyne's face.  That would be massively stupid.  Jeyne has only enemies that would recognize her.  Arya has friends that would recognize her.  I think Jeyne could be the catalyst that causes Arya to return to Westeros.  If so, I think she takes Jeyne along, both to avoid abandoning her and because two are safer than one.

 

Lots of ways to take Jeyne Poole as Arya and bring Arya back as nearly anyone including herself all very interesting.  Justin Massey himself is something of a wildcard in all this I think, particularly if he believes Stannis is dead.  He's got very specific marching orders...and he is terribly ambitious.  Wonder just how loyal he really is?  Will he really do as instructed?  How would Arya play into Tycho or Justin's travel plans?  Oh the thinking on this is just wicked fun.  

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

When I first heard the idea of the Vale army riding on Winterfell I thought it was preposterous, the most absurd thing ever.  2 years later I watched it play out on the small screen.  It was every bit as silly as I thought it would be, though glorious to behold just in the nick of time.  We all know the Vale was itchy and scratchy to get involved in something though I think they are also getting a little complacent in their get rich schemes with Baelish.  He's becoming a rock star as I read Alayne in TWOW.  So I have to ask, are they really interested in getting involved in anything any more? 

I suspect that the Vale knights just want to fight something because they're knights and fighting is their raison d'etre. They would have preferred to fight alongside Robb, given that many of them fought in the first war and therefore they have attachments to that alliance, but I suspect at this stage, with Robb's war being over, you could just point them at something and hit "go" and they'd enthusiastically charge in.

Never mind Roose Bolton, Walder Frey and Theon Greyjoy, Lysa was really the MVP for the Lannisters in that war. If the Vale knights had been unleashed when they wanted to be, it's hard to see how the Lannister armies could have withstood the alliance between them and Robb.

I do agree that the Vale troops coming north to actively interfere in the North's civil wars is pretty silly, though.

[LongRider]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

I don't really see Alayne spending more then like 2 or 3 chapters in the Vale.

I like this.

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

.  We all know the Vale was itchy and scratchy to get involved in something though I think they are also getting a little complacent in their get rich schemes with Baelish.

I don't see this, it seemed to me like LF is getting overconfident and irritating the local gentry. 

43 minutes ago, Nevets said:

She won't take Jeyne's face.  That would be massively stupid.  Jeyne has only enemies that would recognize her.  Arya has friends that would recognize her.  I think Jeyne could be the catalyst that causes Arya to return to Westeros.  If so, I think she takes Jeyne along, both to avoid abandoning her and because two are safer than one.

When I think of Arya returning, I think of whom she would look for and come up with two names, Jon Snow and Nymeria.  

The Vale is full of stored food, the Riverlands and other parts of Westeros are getting close to starvation, LF wants hoard and then sell for really high prices and I don't think Sansa will go for that at all.  

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, LongRider said:

I like this.

I don't see this, it seemed to me like LF is getting overconfident and irritating the local gentry. 

When I think of Arya returning, I think of whom she would look for and come up with two names, Jon Snow and Nymeria.  

The Vale is full of stored food, the Riverlands and other parts of Westeros are getting close to starvation, LF wants hoard and then sell for really high prices and I don't think Sansa will go for that at all.  

There you go.  I thought he was making all nice with the elder brothers like Corbray, marrying down to a filthy rich merchant's daughter who can buy out all the house debt, etc and produce heirs in that line simultaneously alienating the younger brother, Lyn.  I thought this was great politicking.  He buys all the Waynwood debt, get the rugs for the younger Royce and gives market advice to someone in the Alayne chapter.  I thought old crafty Little Finger was sounding like everyone's best friend?  Wow was I wrong!  I knew they weren't going to like him but I thought he and his wonderful bastard daughter and their loving care of Sweet Robin had won them all over?  

Oh you know she will not and that's why I don't think she's going anywhere anytime soon.  I think she's got more Vale story to tell and I trust it is integral to the Starks ultimately.  Still, I am all itchy and scratchy for this tournament and final determination of the Winged Knights.  I have a feeling these guys could be going somewhere in this story.  There is so much about to happen.  

[LongRider]

As refresher, this is from the Alayne gift chapter, APRIL 2, 2015

"Near the keep, she ran headlong into Ser Lothor Brune and almost knocked him off his feet. “Harry the Heir?  Harry the Arse, I say. He’s just some upjumped squire.”
Alayne was so grateful that she hugged him. “Thank you. Have you seen my father, ser?”
“Down in the vaults, ” Ser Lothar said, “inspecting Lord Nestor’s granaries with Lord Grafton and Lord Belmore.”
The vaults were large and dark and filthy. Alayne lit a taper and clutched her skirt as she made the descent. Near the bottom, she heard Lord Grafton’s booming voice, and followed.
“The merchants are clamoring to buy and the lords are clamoring to sell,” the Gulltowner was saying when she found them.  Though not a tall man, Grafton was wide, with thick arms and shoulders.  His hair was a dirty blond mop.  “How am I to stop that, my lord?”
” Post guardsmen on the docks. If need be, seize the ships. How does not matter, so long as no food leaves the Vale. “
“These prices, though,”  protested fat Lord Belmore,”  these prices are more than fair.”
“You say more than fair, my lord. I say less than we would wish. Wait. If need be, buy the food yourself and keep it stored. Winter is coming. Prices must go higher.”
” Perhaps,”  said Belmore, doubtfully.
“Bronze Yohn will not wait, ”  Grafton complained. ” He need not ship through Gulltown, he has his own ports. Whilst we are hoarding our harvest, Royce and the other Lords Declarant will turn theirs into silver, you may be sure of that.”
” Let us hope so,”  said Petyr. “When their granaries are empty, they will need every scrap of that silver to buy sustenance from us. And now if you will excuse me, my lord, it would seem my daughter has need of me.”

 

[csuszka1948]

On 4/4/2023 at 3:57 PM, Curled Finger said:

Of course the major players will all head north.  But that is likely an entire book away.  Lots of moving about before then.  TWOW won't end anything, except possibly the Essos portion of the tale.  We might get everyone who counts headed in the right direction, but not there, not by a long shot.  Martin has no mercy in him.  This blasted thing will drag out forever.  

 

 

 

Why is it obvious that the major players will all head North?

This is not the show, I just don't see this happening.

Jon in his crypt dreams is alone in Winterfell and Dany dreams of a large battle in the Trident where she rides a dragon and melts enemies made of ice.

[sweetsunray]

On 4/3/2023 at 1:12 AM, LongRider said:

I realized after posting that Tywin was already dead when LF sold Jeyne to Roose.  LF seems to have kept the news of Ramsy's wedding from the Vale, how long can that last, I wonder?

I don't think so. IIRC Roose mentions Arya was found to Jaime at HH. Since Tywin cannot be dead until Jaime returns and frees Tyrion from his cell, Tywn okayed it.

[sweetsunray]

On 4/3/2023 at 11:56 PM, Nevets said:

I think something went wrong somewhere along the line, and she wound up at the brothel by default.

Catelyn stayed in one of LFs brothels when she waited for Ned to arrive at KL. I suspect at the very least LF gets off on the idea of keeping women and girls of noble birth in a brothel.

[sweetsunray]

On 4/4/2023 at 1:31 AM, LongRider said:

She is not highborn, her father is the Steward of WF, a position that is not a noble's position, but a servant. 

House Poole is a noble house. It just doesn't have lands. Same for House Cassel. They're comparable to the knightly houses serving at a grand lordly estate in the south, but have no lands, like the Tyrells were once to the Gardeners. Nor is it out of the ordinary for children (or adults) of nobility to serve an overlord: squires, cupbearers, handmaids... all typical positions for nobility, rather than commoners. 

[Nevets]

9 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I don't think so. IIRC Roose mentions Arya was found to Jaime at HH. Since Tywin cannot be dead until Jaime returns and frees Tyrion from his cell, Tywn okayed it.

Jaime saw Jeyne headed north with the Boltons.  He realized she was fake and confronted Tywin with this fact.  So Tywin was definitely alive when Littlefinger provided Jeyne.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Catelyn stayed in one of LFs brothels when she waited for Ned to arrive at KL. I suspect at the very least LF gets off on the idea of keeping women and girls of noble birth in a brothel.

I expect we will find out more about what happened.  The marks on her back look a lot like a Chekhov's Gun, so I expect she will be around awhile to give us info.  Given her time with Littlefinger and the Boltons, GRRM could be planning to use her as a sort of infodump, as well as a catalyst for Arya and/or Sansa to do something.

[Curled Finger]

14 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Why is it obvious that the major players will all head North?

This is not the show, I just don't see this happening.

Jon in his crypt dreams is alone in Winterfell and Dany dreams of a large battle in the Trident where she rides a dragon and melts enemies made of ice.

You shared some of your insights with me in another place so I will share a bit of mine with you here.  I am a big fan of the whole Battle for Dawn, showdown with the Others puzzle.  This isn't to say I believe this is the end all beat all, but it is a big part of the puzzle.  My great interest and first love in ASOIAF is the swords.  Lame I know, but it is my thing.  It has led me to legends and lore and theory crafting and many cracked pots leading through history and pacts and things only whispered and hinted at.  I should have stated it is obvious to me that all the major players move north because this battle is coming.  

I read long before the show and once it ended I was very sorry I watched, no surprises there.  I didn't even know there was a show and began watching in S4.  True because I have drunk from both media wells my story lines cross, but the main beats are strictly book based in my memory.  Please don't assume I haven't read ASOIAF many times because you don't understand my point of view.  There is plenty of text to back up the statement.  

In our previous conversation I invited you to find another more suitable place for us to continue our conversation as we derailed a topic.  That's rude to an author and audience and I don't like being part of that.  However, I was interested in learning more about your parting comments as it was obvious I was misunderstanding some of the previous comments you made.  This comment in an old topic I made is the first I've heard from you.  If you have read anything at all you know I'm not a mean person.  I am glad to accept correction and enjoy other and often different ideas from my own.  

I hope this clarifies my statement about everyone moving north in TWOW, at least my position on the statement.  Further, I hope you understand that you are welcome to just join in our conversations as a book reader among book readers.  These guys are wicked fun and smart.  It would still be good to have that Jon Snow conversation.  Thanks for joining in.  

[Craving Peaches]

20 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

My great interest and first love in ASOIAF is the swords.  Lame I know, but it is my thing.

Nothing lame about liking swords. I am a big fan of triple-headed flails.