Rugby: France and Beyond

[Iskaral Pust]

Just now, Which Tyler said:

It generally means playing in a top tier annual tournament.
So all 6Nations and all QuadNations teams are tier 1, everyone else is tier 2.

Understood.  For a proxy of a simple power ranking, I wouldn’t count Italy or Argentina as being as competitive as the rest of the 6N and QN, although obviously stronger for having regular matchups with tier 1 opponents.

[Which Tyler]

It's... about more than that though. It's about history and feel (the tiers are accepted, but last time I checked, not officially recognised), but QN and 6N is the closest we've got to somewhere we can place a cutting off point.
Argentina or Italy beating most of the other top tier nations wouldn't be a shock. IIRC Argentina have beaten everyone, Italy have beaten everyone but England and New Zealand.

I'm pretty sure (but not 100%) that those 10 have never failed to qualify for a world cup either; with only Japan also holding that record - and that down to being the best in Asia, rather than necessarily the best 16/20 teams.

 

By far and away, those 10 nations have the strongest history; and the gap between even Italy and the best tier 2 nation is usually pretty significant.

 

The alternative is to go by rankings - which opens a whole host of problems.

 

ETA: Sorry, some also use the number of votes a nation has at WR council meetings (mostly, it's Japan who use this definition) which is the above 10 + Japan.

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Which Tyler

[ljkeane]

20 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Understood.  For a proxy of a simple power ranking, I wouldn’t count Italy or Argentina as being as competitive as the rest of the 6N and QN, although obviously stronger for having regular matchups with tier 1 opponents.

Italy have been fairly consistently the weakest of the 'tier 1' teams over the years but Argentina have been generally well in the mix with the other sides over the last 15 years or so. They've never probably been a top three side I'd say but there have been times you'd could argue they were 4th or 5th. They've been to a couple of World Cup semifinals and they beat the All Blacks in New Zealand last year. To be honest I was expecting them to beat England.

Speaking of Italy and New Zealand I'm looking forward to tonight's game. It's effectively a knock out game and the All Blacks aren't very used to playing many of them in the pools. I'd be very surprised if Italy actually win it but they're good enough not to make it easy for New Zealand.

[Which Tyler]

Yeah, for the first time ever, the possibility of Italy actually beating the All Blacks is worth... about 1+2 seconds of thought before being dismissed.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Is "Italy" the Spanish term for being bad at this sport? Be nicer New Zealand! 

[ljkeane]

Ok the All Blacks have been impressive. Italy have absolutely fallen apart though.  That’s a real shame, there have been some real improvements over the last few years for Italian rugby but it really hasn’t shown up at the highest profile moment for them.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cx067FTt51K/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=5564972d-fb36-4435-87ca-20897a1b8d3e

 

[ljkeane]

23 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/Cx067FTt51K/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=5564972d-fb36-4435-87ca-20897a1b8d3e

 

Heh, good effort.

Not the best weekend of rugby at the World Cup so far, with Italy a particular let down. It has set up some key games for next week though with Scotland and Argentina and Japan getting the wins they needed and Fiji have almost certainly secured a place in a quarterfinal against England. They'll probably have to find at least a semi competent goal kicker for the knock outs though or you'd think it's going to cost them.

On the Rugby League front though there was a great game in the NRL grand final. In the first half I thought Penrith were going to win fairly comfortably with it going almost exactly how they want to play squeezing the life out of the opposition but Brisbane somehow managed to keep it within 2. Then in the second half the Broncos scored three quick tries, Luai went off injured and the Panthers looked panicked making uncharacteristic defensive errors and I thought Brisbane were going to win comfortably only for Penrith to come back and win it at the death. You'd have to say this Penrith sides are one of the great rugby league sides in the history of the game.

[Which Tyler]

Fuck!

https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Tuisova-makes-ultimate-sacrifice-after-his-sons-passing-in-Ba-x8r45f/
 

Quote

Fiji Water Flying Fijians centre, Josua Tuisova is making the ultimate sacrifice to stay back in France to represent his country for the crucial final pool match against Portugal, and has told his father that he will not be able to attend his 7 year old son’s funeral today.

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Which Tyler

[BigFatCoward]

3 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

Fuck!

https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Tuisova-makes-ultimate-sacrifice-after-his-sons-passing-in-Ba-x8r45f/
 

 

Everyone grieves differently, but fuck that. 

[ljkeane]

A bit of a disaster week or so for Italy. They really have significantly improved their youth rugby set up and with it the level of talent they have available over the last few years but the performances against New Zealand and France are a bit of an embarrassment. I didn’t expect them to win either game but I thought they’d make it tough.

From France’s perspective obviously the injury to Dupont is still a big concern but I think they got lucky with the Ntamack injury. It’s unlucky for him but Jalibert’s the better player for me.

[ljkeane]

Potentially big issue for Wales in the game against Georgia with Anscombe picking up an injury in the warm up. It’s not going to matter for the group stages but with Biggar already injured (although he’s still with the squad) they might have problems at flyhalf for the quarterfinal.

[ljkeane]

Really impressive first half from Ireland. They scored four good tries but it’s the defence that was the real stand out. Scotland had several multiphase attacks with reasonably quick ball but they got no change out of the defensive line. Ireland were really smart about when they were committing to rucks and it meant Scotland weren’t able to find any space wide, which is where Russell always wants to go.

[Iskaral Pust]

Really professional by Ireland so far, securing the bonus point by half time.  Just please avoid any more injuries.

@ljkeane Aside from a couple of sloppy break-away concessions in the opening two WC games, Ireland have been consistently very strong for more than a year at not conceding tries.  IIRC we conceded the fewest in the 6N by a fair distance.  France only get close on the scoreboard because Ramos can kick penalties from very long distance.

Scotland showed well in the 6N but haven’t shown enough threat yet against SA and Ireland to stay in the WC.  They need to find some magic in the second half to conjure up a high scoring win. 

[ljkeane]

2 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

@ljkeane Aside from a couple of sloppy break-away concessions in the opening two WC games, Ireland have been consistently very strong for more than a year at not conceding tries.  IIRC we conceded the fewest in the 6N by a fair distance.  

Yeah, Ireland’s defence is usually solid but they’re defending in a way that’s really targeted at how Scotland want to attack.

Scotland like to play a fast and wide game with Russell fizzing wide passes out. That can be really dangerous but they can run out of numbers in the rucks as they go through multiple phases. Ireland aren’t committing to the rucks so they’re letting Scotland have quite quick ball, which is a bit of a risk, but they’re keeping a lot of defenders on their feet and then pouncing when Scotland run out of support. It’s really good tactics from Ireland.

[Iskaral Pust]

Now we just look like bullies.

Edit: Scotland finally saved some face after I posted that

Edited October 7, 2023 by Iskaral Pust

[Deedles]

On 10/3/2023 at 9:42 AM, Which Tyler said:

Fuck!

https://www.fijivillage.com/news/Tuisova-makes-ultimate-sacrifice-after-his-sons-passing-in-Ba-x8r45f/
 

 

I’m sorry but it’s just fucking sport. This is ridiculous.

 

Anyway, thought Mack Hanson looked wobbly coming off. Hopefully I’d ok, and Lowe is obvs a concern.

 

sexton is playing a blinder though

[williamjm]

I think Ireland have just reinforced their position as favourites with that comprehensive victory.

In the earlier game Samoa will probably feel they should have beaten England because they looked like the superior team for most of the game. I'm sure Fiji will have been taking notes.

[Padraig]

That was impressive but tough night ahead next week.  Pity about the QF draw because its clearly the best Irish team at a WC ever.  Because we haven't gone beyond a QF before!  That's probably why we aren't the favourite.

[ljkeane]

15 hours ago, williamjm said:

In the earlier game Samoa will probably feel they should have beaten England because they looked like the superior team for most of the game. I'm sure Fiji will have been taking notes.

That game definitely punctured the very small bubble of optimism that had grown in this World Cup for England. Fiji definitely have a stronger all round squad than Samoa but one small positive for England is that the two areas where Samoa are better than Fiji is that they have a reasonably solid flyhalf in Sopoaga and a top class lineout operator in the back row in McFarland.

Cracking game today in what was effectively a knockout between Argentina and Japan. The Pumas are the stronger side and them winning will make for a more competitive quarterfinal against Wales but Japan are so much fun. Second row rampaging down the wing? Of course the thing to do is chip the winger, step the last defender and score under the posts.