Catelyn Stark was right, about basically everything

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 7/21/2023 at 2:45 PM, sifth said:

He should have kept him close, maybe set him out to plunder the people of the West, with only his own men under his command. He did nothing that proved he was trust worthy enough to control half of Robb’s army.

But he did. He has. He's the head of a large house, has been loyal to the Starks, & had men die for his cause. And tbh I don't think he would have betrayed him had he not been losing, I don't think it would have been prevented by assigning him a different task. Had Robb's cause not looked hopeless, Roose likely would have stayed loyal to the end. 

 

On 7/21/2023 at 2:45 PM, sifth said:

Giving that much freedom to a man who looks evil, has a banner that’s evil, a family history that’s also evil and you’re father never trusted because in secret he was evil, is just not knowing how to read people. 

Come now, who looks evil? Many men look evil. The banner is silly also, so we can just agree to disagree there. Whose family history in Westeros doesn't have some bad things? 

Don't think Ned said he didn't trust him because "he was evil" & obviously Robb didn't know that. 

You don't read people by judging their looks, nor by their banners considering they are age old & weren't picked by Roose. You read people via their actions, which is what Robb did. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 7/21/2023 at 2:45 PM, sifth said:

At least with the Freys, George gave us a few who were very kind and decent people. George gave us the readers no reason to trust Roose from the second he showed up in the story. The kindest thing he does is make Arya a page, only to threaten to cut out her tongue in the next chapter.

We only know 1 Bolton LOL. Roose. That's it. And while a little odd he does seem to be capable. Do you think it's rare for a Lord to threaten to cut out the tongue of a page? I'd say not. 

Ramsay isn't a Bolton but I'd agree with you if we were talking about him. We never met Domeric. So the entire Bolton family should be judged because Roose looks "evil" & has a flayed man on his banner? 

Listen, I'm not arguing Roose isn't one screwed up individual. I think we probably don't know the half of it, but I can't concede Robb or Cat should have known he would betray them because of his evil face & banner. This isn't a cartoon. 

[Arthur Peres]

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

She stopped pushing when she found out Ned's version of the plan was to leave her behind in Winterfell. And she begged him not to go after Bran fell.

By that point Ned already had accepted the position and was not turning back, and letting Catelyn in Winterfell was the smart move. They suspected the Lannisters of killing Jon Arryn, Robb would need all the support and advise to rule the north. If Anything Ned should not have brought Arya to KL. 

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Jon wouldn't have been driven out into the snow. He's not a child any more; it's way past time he should be fostered out to prepare for adult life. Any lord or commander would be happy to oblige the Starks of Winterfell.

It was a decision made purely by her pettyness. There is nothing to gain by driving Jon out of Winterfell. She was simply wrong.

[John Suburbs]

On 7/24/2023 at 10:55 AM, Springwatch said:

 

Good points. But it's Varys' job to have a complete intelligence network; he's not going to retreat from the docks just because LF is there.

When talking to Cat, LF credits Varys with finding her, and Varys sort of accepts the credit (I suppose I am guilty). Maybe there's too much emphasis there? I can't think why Varys would cover for LF (which he does again, over the knife story), or why LF would want him to, or want him there at all. I guess Varys used his knowledge to barge in the meeting, and is storing up the information for later use.

 

Mmm, despite Varys' complete intelligence network, however, when it comes to Petyr, "the gods only know what games Littlefinger is playing." Varys's little birds crawl through the secret passages in the Red Keep. On the docks, it's all informers, and everyone doing business there would have ample motivation to keep the Master of Coin informed, not the Master of Whispers. So Varys may have some people on the docks, but they pale in comparison to Petyr's network. Every merchant and trader in the city relies on Petyr's good graces.

Of course Petyr is going to tell Cat that the Master of Whispers knows all. What better way to fuel her mistrust of Varys and look to Petyr for protection? The fact remains that the gold cloaks took Cat to the castle on Petyr's authority, not Varys', not Cersei's, not Robert's. Why would Varys tell Petyr, of all people? And if he did, are we sure Varys was not revealing information that Petyr already knew? What we do know is that Petyr lied about Varys no knowing why Cat is in the city -- Varys knows perfectly well why she is here, which he reveals immediately. So if he lied about that . . .

So no, we can't think of a reason why Varys would want to cover for Petyr. Therefore, the logical conclusion is that he didn't. Does Varys know the real story behind the dagger? It doesn't appear so. Was he the one who discovered Cat's presence in the city? Unlikely, given that the docks are Petyr's domain and there is no reason why he would want or need to share that information with Petyr. Petyr does have a motivation to bring Varys into it, however: to shift Cat's mistrust away from him and onto Varys.

And if Varys was storing up this information for later use, why doesn't he use it? Why not tell Ned that the dagger story is a lie? Why not tell Tywin that it was Petyr who touched off the war? Why does he pretend to Illyrio that he has no idea what Petyr is up to, or why? It all points to one conclusion: Littlefinger is the player in all this, and Varys is the piece.

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

On 7/12/2023 at 4:39 AM, Tradecraft said:

We're biased against female POV Chapters and, GRRM uses it against us 

 

Let's be honest. How many of us skimmed or skipped a female chapter because it "wasn't important". I have, sad to say. 

I sense that GRRM is using these natural or society taught biases against us. 

We're trained to think women are crazy, jealous, paranoid and weak (physically and emotionally). We don't like female figures in authority, it feels too much like they're trying to be our mothers or, it returns the feeling of being bossed aroubd by our mothers. It infantilizes us. 

Women aren't "supposed" to be in charge in our societies, and so we reject Catelyn and her ideas. People will accept paternal authority figures well enough, that "feels right" under our patriarchal society. Men are "supposed" to lead. Men are "strong" and "decisive"... Like Robb Stark. 

We see characters like Robb defying his mother on the matter of sending Theon Greyjoy away and we side with Robb (at least on the first read)... Despite Catelyn's advice and her insanely good track record. 

The worst thing people have against Catelyn is that she released Jaime and, I don't even find that too bad. Jaime isn't really a threat to the Tullies or Starks after he's released. What'd he do after he was released? Capture some doomed castles under siege in the Riverlands? 

 

First of all, I agree with like....everything you said about Catelyn. I am unabashedly a Catelyn fan (she is my favorite character in the books in fact, although Brienne of Tarth with more screen time, could pass her). I also think your words that I quoted about are important and many do need to read them!

However, many ASOIAF fans are female. I myself, am male presenting, but nonbinary. Other fans are also queer or gender non-conforming. I think it is important to not disregard the fact that the fans of ASOIAF are not some block or only men, and at that, particularly ...non-woke men (since of the stuff you say here I don't think would be overly representative of a feminist man for example). Anyways, I really like what you said, just think you should be clear that...you are only speaking to a subset of the fandom, and not all of the fans. I certainly never skipped or though female POVs were less important. The first time I read ASOIAF, Catelyn was my favorite character. Most recently, I started reading the books again (for the...5th time, 6th time, I've lost track), and she is still my favorite character. I freaking love her chapters. Again, the first time I read these books I was still gender non-conforming and nonbinary...but I was DEEPLY in the closet, and very much obsessed with being as masculine as possible. At that time I was certainly harboring more sexist thoughts than I do now, I still didn't disregard the female POVs or characters as unimportant, at all. I am rambling, sorry. I hope I made my point while also being supportive of you, and that I didn't take away from your thunder. 

[Springwatch]

On 7/25/2023 at 5:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

Mmm, despite Varys' complete intelligence network, however, when it comes to Petyr, "the gods only know what games Littlefinger is playing." Varys's little birds crawl through the secret passages in the Red Keep. On the docks, it's all informers, and everyone doing business there would have ample motivation to keep the Master of Coin informed, not the Master of Whispers. So Varys may have some people on the docks, but they pale in comparison to Petyr's network. Every merchant and trader in the city relies on Petyr's good graces.

No, don't think so. Varys' entire business is to know things. He's so good, people think he's magic.

On 7/25/2023 at 5:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

Of course Petyr is going to tell Cat that the Master of Whispers knows all. What better way to fuel her mistrust of Varys and look to Petyr for protection? The fact remains that the gold cloaks took Cat to the castle on Petyr's authority, not Varys', not Cersei's, not Robert's. Why would Varys tell Petyr, of all people? And if he did, are we sure Varys was not revealing information that Petyr already knew? What we do know is that Petyr lied about Varys no knowing why Cat is in the city -- Varys knows perfectly well why she is here, which he reveals immediately. So if he lied about that . . .

Petyr would have kept Cat for himself if he could. So would Varys. But they both knew, so were forced to join up.

Varys knew about the dagger but he might not have shared that with Petyr.

On 7/25/2023 at 5:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

So no, we can't think of a reason why Varys would want to cover for Petyr.

I can't either. But he does let Petyr tell Cat that it was Tyrion who won the dagger at the tourney. And if Petyr's agents also found Cat, Varys hides that too: I suppose I am guilty. I hope you forgive me, kind lady.

On 7/25/2023 at 5:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

Therefore, the logical conclusion is that he didn't. Does Varys know the real story behind the dagger? It doesn't appear so.

But it is his business to know things. He's good. So after eavesdropping on Ser Rodrick, he'd certainly try to find the origins of that very special dagger, if he doesn't know it already.

There's a sightly weird emphasis that Varys focuses on Cat's face as Petyr tells his false story. Why? Because he knew the ploy was coming and wanted to check her reaction? Or he didn't know, and just froze his face when the story took a wrong turn? It's strange. He could blackmail Petyr with this, but doesn't seem to.

On 7/25/2023 at 5:01 PM, John Suburbs said:

And if Varys was storing up this information for later use, why doesn't he use it? Why not tell Ned that the dagger story is a lie? Why not tell Tywin that it was Petyr who touched off the war? Why does he pretend to Illyrio that he has no idea what Petyr is up to, or why? It all points to one conclusion: Littlefinger is the player in all this, and Varys is the piece.

Petyr doesn't know what Petyr is up to. He even does random things. No wonder Varys is confused.

Varys doesn't have a clear path either - he wants to build conflict, but not set it off too soon before his side is ready. So sometimes he'll be making trouble, sometimes damping it down.

Hard to see what either of them are doing.

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, Springwatch said:

No, don't think so. Varys' entire business is to know things. He's so good, people think he's magic.

Eh, if Varys knows all about Littlefinger, why does he pretend to Varys that he doesn't? Why doesn't he stop all his machinations? The Arryn murder? The dagger lie? The purple wedding? Why not tell the queen where Sansa is?

Only rubes like Ned and Sansa think he's magic. Everyone else, and Petyr especially, knows how he gets his information, and how to hide things from him; ie, meet in the godswood.

Quote

Petyr would have kept Cat for himself if he could. So would Varys. But they both knew, so were forced to join up.

Why would Petyr, or Varys, want to keep Cat for themselves? For what purpose? And don't you think that would draw the ire of her husband, the Hand?

Quote

Varys knew about the dagger but he might not have shared that with Petyr.

I can't either. But he does let Petyr tell Cat that it was Tyrion who won the dagger at the tourney. And if Petyr's agents also found Cat, Varys hides that too: I suppose I am guilty. I hope you forgive me, kind lady.

Varys likely knew about the dagger because he had a little bird watching Santagar.

Again, does Varys let Petyr tell the lie about the dagger, or does he not know it was a lie? At the time Petyr lost it to Robert, it was not that significant of a matter -- easy to fall under the radar. Jaime barely remembers it.

Yes, Varys would want Cat to think he is a magical wizard and knows things he shouldn't know. But as I showed above, Cat couldn't have announced her arrival in King's Landing any louder if she used a bullhorn.

Quote

But it is his business to know things. He's good. So after eavesdropping on Ser Rodrick, he'd certainly try to find the origins of that very special dagger, if he doesn't know it already.

There's a sightly weird emphasis that Varys focuses on Cat's face as Petyr tells his false story. Why? Because he knew the ploy was coming and wanted to check her reaction? Or he didn't know, and just froze his face when the story took a wrong turn? It's strange. He could blackmail Petyr with this, but doesn't seem to.

Yes, it's Varys' business to know things. But look at all the things he does not know: Arryn's true murderer; who really sent the catspaw; who killed Joffrey, and why; what happened to Sansa . . .  See anything in common here? They are all linked to Littlefinger -- yes, even the catspaw.

It is not at all certain that Varys knows the origins of this very special dagger. Petyr reveals that, not Varys, and looking at someone's face can be for all kinds of reasons. And once again, he could blackmail Petyr with this information, but he doesn't. So we have an assumption that leads to a puzzling action, or lack of action. Does this mean Varys just blew another opportunity to take down his chief rival? Or is the assumption wrong?

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Petyr doesn't know what Petyr is up to. He even does random things. No wonder Varys is confused.

Varys doesn't have a clear path either - he wants to build conflict, but not set it off too soon before his side is ready. So sometimes he'll be making trouble, sometimes damping it down.

Hard to see what either of them are doing.

Petyr does not do random things. That was just a lie, a nonsensical lie, to Sansa -- aka, the most gullible and trusting character in the book -- to cover up that major blunder at the purple wedding. Petyr knows exactly what he is doing and why, but of course, not everything always goes as planned.

Varys has a clear path. Things moved too quickly in Westeros because of, guess who? Littlefinger. And still "the gods only know what games Littlefinger is playing." So again, he is the only blind spot in this vast spy network that Illyrio has provided, but neither of them do a thing to correct this glaring and obvious oversight. Hmmmm . . .

 

 

 

[Springwatch]

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Eh, if Varys knows all about Littlefinger, why does he pretend to Varys that he doesn't? Why doesn't he stop all his machinations? The Arryn murder? The dagger lie? The purple wedding? Why not tell the queen where Sansa is?

Only rubes like Ned and Sansa think he's magic. Everyone else, and Petyr especially, knows how he gets his information, and how to hide things from him; ie, meet in the godswood.

He knows most of what Littlefinger does, I expect, but not why, and what he'll do next. LF's secret plots - who knows? It's very difficult to keep secrets when every wall might contain a spy, but LF and Olenna at least are aware of it.

I think Varys' preferred strategy is never to do anything himself, just supply information true and false to create enough suspicion and conflict to prevent a strong stable government. (That has to change in the endgame!) So having LF against the Lannisters suits him well.

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Why would Petyr, or Varys, want to keep Cat for themselves? For what purpose? And don't you think that would draw the ire of her husband, the Hand?

I only meant this meeting - Petyr because he's obsessed with her, Varys because information is his power source.

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Again, does Varys let Petyr tell the lie about the dagger, or does he not know it was a lie? At the time Petyr lost it to Robert, it was not that significant of a matter -- easy to fall under the radar. Jaime barely remembers it.

[...]

It is not at all certain that Varys knows the origins of this very special dagger. Petyr reveals that, not Varys, and looking at someone's face can be for all kinds of reasons. And once again, he could blackmail Petyr with this information, but he doesn't. So we have an assumption that leads to a puzzling action, or lack of action. Does this mean Varys just blew another opportunity to take down his chief rival? Or is the assumption wrong?

I'm going to say he knew. There would be inventories in the amoury, and people there knew the dagger was significant enough to be worth taking to Winterfell (probably because Robert crowed over it as a mark of Jaime's humiliation). So it'd be in the inventory I think.

So if Varys was quick he could check the inventory. If he was less quick, he probably checked it later, because in the meeting with Illyrio, he blames LF's 'meddling' for the Catnapping - meddling implies something more than reciting facts.

So to the puzzling inaction - I've found a great quote for that (not proof, but a better hint you'll never get):

Quote

"Leave Lord Varys to me, sweet lady. If you will permit me a small obscenity - and where better for it than here - I hold the man's balls in the palm of my hand." He cupped his fingers, smiling. "Or would, if he were a man, or had any balls. You see, if the pie is opened, the birds begin to sing, and Varys would not like that. Were I you I would worry more about the Lannisters and less about the eunuch."

Mutual blackmail. Mexican standoff.

But also, common interests. Both of them underdogs, wanting to pull down the ruling clans - a good reason to give the other free rein.

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, Varys would want Cat to think he is a magical wizard and knows things he shouldn't know. But as I showed above, Cat couldn't have announced her arrival in King's Landing any louder if she used a bullhorn.

Petyr can't own every ship's captain calling into KL. Anyway, getting into KL secretly is a near impossibility. (Wonder how Illyrio did it?)

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Yes, it's Varys' business to know things. But look at all the things he does not know: Arryn's true murderer; who really sent the catspaw; who killed Joffrey, and why; what happened to Sansa . . .  See anything in common here? They are all linked to Littlefinger -- yes, even the catspaw.

Quite possibly yes, but like I said, it's very difficult to be secret all the time. We don't know everything in Varys' head.

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Petyr does not do random things. That was just a lie, a nonsensical lie, to Sansa -- aka, the most gullible and trusting character in the book -- to cover up that major blunder at the purple wedding. Petyr knows exactly what he is doing and why, but of course, not everything always goes as planned.

He might, but anyway, what's the purple wedding theory, how do I find it? A blunder sounds about right.

[ETA 'Purple Wedding Finally Solved' might be it. It's a long read...]

On 7/27/2023 at 4:27 PM, John Suburbs said:

Varys has a clear path. Things moved too quickly in Westeros because of, guess who? Littlefinger. And still "the gods only know what games Littlefinger is playing." So again, he is the only blind spot in this vast spy network that Illyrio has provided, but neither of them do a thing to correct this glaring and obvious oversight. Hmmmm . . .

Could they even be semi-allies? There's another scene where they share a joke about maybe being brothers on the Wall together, if Cersei gets any angrier. It's not much, but they're definitely not distant rivals. They're close.

Edited July 28, 2023 by Springwatch
word

[Lee-Sensei]

On 7/14/2023 at 8:34 PM, Arthur Peres said:

I would say that Catelyn was more wrong than right the majority of the time. 

She was wrong when she pushed Ned to take the position of Hand.

She was petty to drive Jon out of Winterfell, even thought with the size of the castle she would barely see him, and if she is afraid of him becoming the next Daemon Blackfyre she should keep him close and watch him. Jon was also Robb's best friend and Arya favorite brother.

She telling not only Ned, but also Varys and LF about the dagger was a mistake. If only Ned had saw that, they might had a chance to get a real answer. The mission was a secret and she decided to expose that to two of the biggest schemers in the series... LF given their past can be understandable that she trust him, but Varys? no way.

Arresting/kidnaping Tyrion while not telling Riverrun, was a massive mistake, that started the war. 

Letting Robb put Roose in charge of the second army was a massive mistake, Roose is the last person to be put in a position of command. It's made even more tragic or confusing that Tywin was almost caught by surprise showing that the Greatjon's idea might have worked.

Freeing Jaime was also a massive mistake and the one that doomed her and Robb.

She was the one that suggested Edmure to marry a Frey and we all know how that ended...

Catelyn was right about sending Theon being a mistake.

She was right about making peace after Ned's death (but that also depend of Lannisters agreeing with peace, and they won't).

She was kind of right about not trusting the Westerlings.

She suggested Edmure, because Robb had already broken with the Freys. Also, didn't she suggest making peace first? The Lannisters would have definitely agreed to it, albeit on terms that were favourable to them.

[Alester Florent]

On 7/28/2023 at 6:25 PM, Springwatch said:

Could they even be semi-allies? There's another scene where they share a joke about maybe being brothers on the Wall together, if Cersei gets any angrier. It's not much, but they're definitely not distant rivals. They're close.

I think both of them recognise that there's no point being pointlessly antagonistic and alienating people, and are fully capable of laughing and joking with people they have no loyalty to, even people they intend to betray.

LF was all sweetness with Ned and Lysa until he wasn't.

Varys in particular has no independent powerbase in Westeros; his whole survival is tied up in his position on the Small Council. So he has to make an effort to get along with everyone on it. LF is in a slightly less weak position at the start of AGoT, because he can always go home to the Vale and rely on Lysa's favour and patronage, but the council is still his best chance of advancement.

Edited August 12, 2023 by Alester Florent