Catelyn Stark was right, about basically everything

[Corvo the Crow]

40 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

Yeah Karstark will be happy, Robb won’t. He can’t just let his bannermen kill his valuable prisoners. So Robb would still be forced to kill Karstark for his crime. So he still loses the Karstarks. The scenario is basically the same, except a dead Jaime basically means a dead Sansa. So Cat releasing Jaime was actually the right move. It’s the least worse option. 

A free Jaime means a dead Sansa too. Robb should just guard better and don’t let his Lords idle around Riverrun but give them a task.

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

13 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A free Jaime means a dead Sansa too.

How so?

[Corvo the Crow]

1 minute ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

How so?

No deterrent.

[Bendric Dayne]

58 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

A free Jaime means a dead Sansa too. 

How? This is literally what happens and nobody kills Sansa. If a free Jaime meant a dead Sansa then Sansa would have been dead already. The fact that no one kills her or even thinks to kill her when Jaime gets freed means that they were never going to do so. 

Edited July 12, 2023 by Bendric Dayne

[Corvo the Crow]

Just now, Bendric Dayne said:

How? This is literally what happens and nobody kills Sansa. If a free Jaime meant a free Sansa then Sansa would have been dead already. The fact that no one kills her or even thinks to kill her when Jaime gets freed means that they were never going to do so. 

Because by the time Jaime arrives ia) She’s already married to Tyrion b) Tywin is in charge not Joffrey and Cersei. When Cat released him neither was the case.

[Bendric Dayne]

6 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Because by the time Jaime arrives ia) She’s already married to Tyrion b) Tywin is in charge not Joffrey and Cersei. When Cat released him neither was the case.

I concede that Joffrey doesn’t need a reason to kill Sansa, the Starks losing their deterrent could make Joffrey recklessly kill her, but I don’t think Cersei is stupid enough to make the same mistake twice. She knew right away that killing Ned was a huge mistake and she tried to stop Joffrey but failed. So I don’t think she’d let him do the same with Sansa, she would be better prepared to prevent that from happening. Also, if they did chose to kill Sansa, they would probably wait for Jaime to arrive to make sure they have him before anything happens on the way. He could get captured on the way, in which case they would still have need of Sansa. So it would be logical for them to wait for Jaime to arrive in which case Jaime would have done everything possible to make sure that doesn’t happen so that he can keep his word. Even if they do end up killing Sansa, Cat would still have made the right choice because it is in no way a certainty that they would have done so, it’s just a mere possibility. If she lets the Karstarks kill Jaime then surely the Lannisters would kill Sansa. 
 

Also, no one ever mentions the possibility of killing Sansa. It’s not something that’s on anyone’s minds. Even Joffrey would much rather continue to torment her than kill her. So even though it’s a possibility that they would have killed Sansa, there’s no reason any of us, or Cat, should think there’s a real chance of that because it just doesn’t make any sense. Either Jaime shows up and doesn’t keep his oath in which case the most likely thing that happens is that Joffrey keeps tormenting her, or Jaime keeps his oath and she gets her daughter back. Yeah there’s a small chance that they kill Sansa, but it’s way better than basically guaranteeing Sansa’s death by letting Jaime die. 

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

3 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

I concede that Joffrey doesn’t need a reason to kill Sansa, the Starks losing their deterrent could make Joffrey recklessly kill her, but I don’t think Cersei is stupid enough to make the same mistake twice. She knew right away that killing Ned was a huge mistake and she tried to stop Joffrey but failed. So I don’t think she’d let him do the same with Sansa, she would be better prepared to prevent that from happening. Also, if they did chose to kill Sansa, they would probably wait for Jaime to arrive to make sure they have him before anything happens on the way. He could get captured on the way, in which case they would still have need of Sansa. So it would be logical for them to wait for Jaime to arrive in which case Jaime would have done everything possible to make sure that doesn’t happen so that he can keep his word. Even if they do end up killing Sansa, Cat would still have made the right choice because it is in no way a certainty that they would have done so, it’s just a mere possibility. If she lets the Karstarks kill Jaime then surely the Lannisters would kill Sansa. 
 

Also, no one ever mentions the possibility of killing Sansa. It’s not something that’s on anyone’s minds. Even Joffrey would much rather continue to torment her than kill her. So even though it’s a possibility that they would have killed Sansa, there’s no reason any of us, or Cat, should think there’s a real chance of that because it just doesn’t make any sense. Either Jaime shows up and doesn’t keep his oath in which case the most likely thing that happens is that Joffrey keeps tormenting her, or Jaime keeps his oath and she gets her daughter back. Yeah there’s a small chance that they kill Sansa, but it’s way better than basically guaranteeing Sansa’s death by letting Jaime die. 

Also, wasn't Tyrion acting Hand by the time Jaime was freed? He would definitely have interceded as well if he felt Sansa was in danger of being executed. She's still a valuable hostage during war time, and especially valuable since she's their only one. At this time, Robb has no children. Both Stark boys are eventually speculated to be dead, and if they can win the war against Robb then Sansa is still their key to the North. So, Joffrey is really the only dangerous factor here.

[Bendric Dayne]

12 minutes ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

Also, wasn't Tyrion acting Hand by the time Jaime was freed? He would definitely have interceded as well if he felt Sansa was in danger of being executed. She's still a valuable hostage during war time, and especially valuable since she's their only one.

Exactly. Cat knows Tyrion wouldn’t kill Sansa and she can be pretty sure that Cersei wouldn’t do so either. Sansa is still too valuable, with or without Jaime. Both Tyrion and Cersei know how mad Tywin would be if they killed such a valuable asset. 

 

16 minutes ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

At this time, Robb has no children. Both Stark boys are eventually speculated to be dead, and if they can win the war against Robb then Sansa is still their key to the North. 

Yes. And even though Bran and Rickon are not presumed dead at the time Cat releases Jaime, the ironborn have taken Winterfell, so it’s not crazy for anyone to think that they might not survive, so the Lannisters had good reason to think they had the potential key to the North with Sansa. The mere fact that the Ironborn are raiding the North gives Sansa more value at that time. 

 

21 minutes ago, Ser Arthurs Dawn said:

So, Joffrey is really the only dangerous factor here.

And I’d argue he isn’t any more dangerous after the release of Jaime. The reason he’s dangerous is because he is psychotic and reckless and he’d kill Sansa without any reason. He’d kill her even if it’s a stupid move that hurts him and his house, like he did with Ned. So the chance of him killing Sansa is arguably the same before Cat releases Jaime as after, since there’s really no reason to Joffrey’s madness. 

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Bendric Dayne said:

I concede that Joffrey doesn’t need a reason to kill Sansa, the Starks losing their deterrent could make Joffrey recklessly kill her, but I don’t think Cersei is stupid enough to make the same mistake twice. She knew right away that killing Ned was a huge mistake and she tried to stop Joffrey but failed. So I don’t think she’d let him do the same with Sansa, she would be better prepared to prevent that from happening. Also, if they did chose to kill Sansa, they would probably wait for Jaime to arrive to make sure they have him before anything happens on the way. He could get captured on the way, in which case they would still have need of Sansa. So it would be logical for them to wait for Jaime to arrive in which case Jaime would have done everything possible to make sure that doesn’t happen so that he can keep his word. Even if they do end up killing Sansa, Cat would still have made the right choice because it is in no way a certainty that they would have done so, it’s just a mere possibility. If she lets the Karstarks kill Jaime then surely the Lannisters would kill Sansa. 
 

Also, no one ever mentions the possibility of killing Sansa. It’s not something that’s on anyone’s minds. Even Joffrey would much rather continue to torment her than kill her. So even though it’s a possibility that they would have killed Sansa, there’s no reason any of us, or Cat, should think there’s a real chance of that because it just doesn’t make any sense. Either Jaime shows up and doesn’t keep his oath in which case the most likely thing that happens is that Joffrey keeps tormenting her, or Jaime keeps his oath and she gets her daughter back. Yeah there’s a small chance that they kill Sansa, but it’s way better than basically guaranteeing Sansa’s death by letting Jaime die. 

Tried and failed as you said. Jaime wouldn’t be able to do much either ,being KG. 

[frenin]

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Seizing Tyrion was not a mistake.

It was, even if ot's obvious that it becoming the catalyst to war is just a series of unfortunate events outside of her control, seizing Tyrion was very stupid and with the slim evidence they had was bound to blow up in their faces.

 

Quote

He wondered what was happening beyond the walls (such as they were) of his cell. Lord Tywin would surely have sent out riders when the word reached him. Jaime might be leading a host through the Mountains of the Moon even now … unless he was riding north against Winterfell instead. Did anyone outside the Vale even suspect where Catelyn Stark had taken him? He wondered what Cersei would do when she heard. The king could order him freed, but would Robert listen to his queen or his Hand? Tyrion had no illusions about the king's love for his sister.
If Cersei kept her wits about her, she would insist the king sit in judgment of Tyrion himself. Even Ned Stark could scarcely object to that, not without impugning the honor of the king. And Tyrion would be only too glad to take his chances in a trial. Whatever murders they might lay at his door, the Starks had no proof of anything so far as he could see. Let them make their case before the Iron Throne and the lords of the land. It would be the end of them. If only Cersei were clever enough to see that …

Change Cersei for Tywin and that's about it.

 

 

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

A bunch of other characters (Ned included) would've done the same exact thing...except Ned would've waltzed right into Lannister-controlled King's Landing with Tyrion in tow or chanced the journey north only to be intercepted by Lannister outriders. In any case, had it been Ned instead of Cat, Ned would've been blindsided by the Lannisters.

Still a mistake, not in Ned's case, obviously, Ned's the Hand of the King, he can do that.

 

 

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Telling Robb to give half his army to Roose was not a mistake.

Yeah, it was lol, for obvious reasons but this is also Martin retconning things so they appear even more baffling with hindsight.

 

Quote

What if Bolton never had his sister? This wedding could well be just some ruse to lure Stannis into a trap. Eddard Stark had never had any reason to complain of the Lord of the Dreadfort, so far as Jon knew, but even so he had never trusted him, with his whispery voice and his pale, pale eyes.

It is impossible for Jon to know this but Eddard's wife and heir not, it is what it is tho.

 

4 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Telling Edmure that housing all of his smallfolk in his castle is a good call...one that is confirmed shortly thereafter by both King Robb and the Blackfish. Blackfish later proceeds to kick them all out after the Red Wedding. Why? Because the primary function of castles is as a military base and the secondary function of castles is to be the center of government. The presence of tens of thousands of peasants and their animals are not only a distraction but a hindrance. Most castles (Winterfell and Harrenhal are the exception) aren't built to house and protect hundreds of thousands of people.

All of this is wrong but again, i don't think this is Cat being wrong but Martin simply do not understanding that medieval castles were very much designed to keep the folk in during wars.

 

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

That was a good call in face of the information she had, only Lysa turned out to be insane.

Sure, the info she had was incomplete and she acted on a rush.

 

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I think she suggested not to give it to Greatjon. I think it was a good idea at the time, not knowing that without Greatjon there is Northern independence speech and that Roose will turn traitor due to unforeseeable circumstances (WF sacked by Ramsay)

I mean, OP is clearly using benefit of hindsight so...

 

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

It was a mistake, but I don't know where the idea of 'costing their lives' comes from.

Tywin would just let Robb walk back to the North because he has Jaime? You aren't serious.

Actually, the best way for Tywin to ever get back Jaime is to orchestrate the RW and trade Cat and Edmure for Jaime. It's possible that the Blackfish immediately executes Jaime as a response, but that the same was possible with Aerys and Jaime, and that didn't stop Tywin from demonstrating his 'loyalty' to Robert by sacking the city and killing the Targaryens.

Disagree, Sacks are messy and chaotic, the city is huge, it'd be a while before the loyalists catch wind of what it is happening, Tywin knows Brynden, he knows he won't hesitate in killing Jaime.

And no, i don't think Tywin lets Robb back to the North, i think that without Tywin being aware of Robb's plans, Robb going back to the North seemed simply unfeasible, Moat Cailin was seemingly cut to him, Lysa was cutting him from the East, Tywin and the Ironborn from the West. 

 

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I think in the second case, GRRM intended to have Cat's reading right about most things. Cat was raised to be a heir for years and she had basic martial knowledge.

Indeed, that's why i bolded it.

 

[csuszka1948]

28 minutes ago, frenin said:

It was, even if ot's obvious that it becoming the catalyst to war is just a series of unfortunate events outside of her control, seizing Tyrion was very stupid and with the slim evidence they had was bound to blow up in their faces.

 

Change Cersei for Tywin and that's about it.

 

It doesn't have much to do with evidence. Yes, Cat believed Lysa can provide additional evidence in the Eyrie and they can make a compelling case against the Lannisters but that's not why she seized Tyrion - she seized him because he recognized her.

The alternative option is that Tyrion goes to KL and tells his siblings that he saw Catelyn coming from KL and trying to hide himself - they realize that Ned and Cat are 'onto them' (know about Bran's fall and maybe Jon's death) and move against Ned the same way they (as far as she knew) moved against Jon Arryn. She made a move to prevent that and gain a hostage if a possible war breaks out (as Ned has warned) by seizing Tyrion. Tyrion thinks it was brilliantly done.

[csuszka1948]

2 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

No deterrent.

 

Except Sansa becomes Robb's heir and useful in her own right, even Cersei would recognize it and Joffrey would want to keep her as his plaything. Besides, Tyrion was in control of KL at the time Jaime was released and he would have returned Sansa.

The idea that the Lannisters would kill a 13-year old girl is a bit too far IMO.

[Bendric Dayne]

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Tried and failed as you said. Jaime wouldn’t be able to do much either ,being KG. 

I don’t think she failed though. The reason she released Jaime was to save Sansa. If the Karstarks would have killed Jaime, Sansa is dead. She prevented that from happening. She doesn’t get her daughter back because she gets killed in the RW which we can’t expect her to predict, but regardless her daughter is alive. People say releasing Jaime was stupid, but don’t give a good reason as to why it was stupid. Was it stupid because it got her daughter saved? How is that stupid? Is it stupid because it affected Robb in the war? No because a dead Jaime would have had the same effect. So what exactly is the stupid thing here? If she lets Jaime die the outcome of everything else is essentially the same, except the Lannisters kill her daughter. She succeeded in saving Sansa, which was basically her only goal. Everything else that happened, would have happened regardless. 

[frenin]

25 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

It doesn't have much to do with evidence. Yes, Cat believed Lysa can provide additional evidence in the Eyrie and they can make a compelling case against the Lannisters but that's not why she seized Tyrion - she seized him because he recognized her.

The alternative option is that Tyrion goes to KL and tells his siblings that he saw Catelyn coming from KL and trying to hide himself - they realize that Ned and Cat are 'onto them' (know about Bran's fall and maybe Jon's death) and move against Ned the same way they (as far as she knew) moved against Jon Arryn. She made a move to prevent that and gain a hostage if a possible war breaks out (as Ned has warned) by seizing Tyrion. Tyrion thinks it was brilliantly done.

Oh yeah, i forgot about that my bad, then i correct myself, it was a critical mistake but an understandable one given the info available.

[frenin]

11 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Cat gets things wrong, but outside her (imo borderline unforgivable) repeated decision to punish a child for his father’s actions while effectively forgiving the father,

She never punished Jon, save that one time, she simply refused to love him as a son but as her husbands bastard, can't really call it "borderline unforgivable"

[sifth]

22 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Except Sansa becomes Robb's heir and useful in her own right, even Cersei would recognize it and Joffrey would want to keep her as his plaything. Besides, Tyrion was in control of KL at the time Jaime was released and he would have returned Sansa.

The idea that the Lannisters would kill a 13-year old girl is a bit too far IMO.

Counter Point. Cersei is an idiot and Joff is a psychopath. I wouldn't trust either of them with the life of my daughter, but hey, that's just me.

[sifth]

2 minutes ago, frenin said:

She never punished Jon, save that one time, she simply refused to love him as a son but as her husbands bastard, can't really call it "borderline unforgivable"

You mean the time she said she wished he died, right to his face. She was sad though, so it's perfectly excusable. I tell people I wish they were dead, to their face every time I'm feeling sad, it's perfectly natural.

[Ran]

Man, she wasnt "sad". She was in the depth of a black depression, so bad that she couldn't sleep and would barely eat. She looked like she'd aged years. She thinks back on that period as if she was in a fog.

She was, literally, not in her right mind, and later on she feels shame when she thinks about how she collapsed.

You have to fit what she said to Jon into that context.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Ran

[Bendric Dayne]

38 minutes ago, sifth said:

Counter Point. Cersei is an idiot and Joff is a psychopath.

True, but Cersei is not so stupid as to not see the value of keeping Sansa around, especially after she becomes Robb's heir. If the Karstarks did kill Jaime though, I think she would have killed Sansa. I mean her father did kill two innocent Targaryen babes and Cersei seems to want to emulate her father a lot. I think she'd be unhinged and she'd kill Sansa.

 

52 minutes ago, sifth said:

I wouldn't trust either of them with the life of my daughter, but hey, that's just me.

I mean, it's not like Cat trusts them with her daughter's life either. The fact that she releases Jaime (their most valuable asset) speaks to how afraid she is for Sansa's life in the hands of Cersei and Joffrey. She literally thinks that Jaime's death at the hands of the Karstarks would mean Sansa's death, which is why she lets him free. 

[sifth]

56 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

True, but Cersei is not so stupid as to not see the value of keeping Sansa around, especially after she becomes Robb's heir. If the Karstarks did kill Jaime though, I think she would have killed Sansa. I mean her father did kill two innocent Targaryen babes and Cersei seems to want to emulate her father a lot. I think she'd be unhinged and she'd kill Sansa.

 

I mean, it's not like Cat trusts them with her daughter's life either. The fact that she releases Jaime (their most valuable asset) speaks to how afraid she is for Sansa's life in the hands of Cersei and Joffrey. She literally thinks that Jaime's death at the hands of the Karstarks would mean Sansa's death, which is why she lets him free. 

She breaks Joff out of jail, with the hope that out of the kindness of their hearts, the Lannisters will free Sansa. Basically giving up the only leverage she has over them, on a hope and a dream.

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by sifth