How deep was Renly already in with the Tyrells?

[BlackLightning]

Just now, SeanF said:

Cersei would have had to be discreetly poisoned, for it to have worked.

It still wouldn't  have worked.

Robert is not surrounded by Baratheon swords; he's surrounded by Lannister swords...chief among them being the Kingslayer. If Jaime could kill one king, what's one more? Especially since Jaime does not even like Robert. Much more than that, Jaime is unabashedly violating not only Robert as an individual but House Baratheon, the Iron Throne and the Kingsguard as institutions by repeatedly sexing and impregnating his wife. Not to mention the type of damage this does to House Lannister.

I don't think fans quite understand how serious it is for someone like Jaime (and Cersei) to be doing this. This is an egregious crime. If Jaime can do this, then murder is not off the table.

If anything untoward happens to Cersei and/or her children and Robert is even remotely believed to be tied to it, Jaime WILL kill him. And given how out of shape Robert is, it'll be easy. And Jaime, being the idiot that he was at this point, will make a messy scene of it and leave ZERO room for doubt.

And then you have a massive crisis in which a knight sworn to protect and serve the royal family has murdered not one but two kings and sat on his ass while the king's relatives were left to fend for themselves. Except this time around, Jaime -- more than likely -- has to crown himself the King in order to protect himself from the likes of Ned Stark and Stannis Baratheon.

 

It would've been a nightmare.

[BlackLightning]

17 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Ah, it's been too long since I saw the show. So a romantic connection in the books is only implied, right?

But we can at least speculate as to how Renly got the idea about Margaery maybe looking like Lyanna. Clearly he has no lasting memory of her himself - otherwise he wouldn't need to ask. So who put the idea in his head that they looked alike?

The romantic connection is only "confirmed" in the fourth book. And even then, I use the term confirmed loosely. Literally everyone except for Robert, Ned, Arianne, Viserys and the children (in other words, the only people who didn't know were children, willfully blind, morons or all of the above) knew that Loras and Renly were gay for each other but no one has come right out and said it.

 

I don't think anyone has to put it in Renly's head that Margaery and Lyanna look alike. Because they clearly don't. I think Renly just thinks that:

• Lyanna and Margaery were objectively beautiful brunettes and that, therefore, they must look alike.
• Robert is still in love with Lyanna and doesn't get along with Cersei so, therefore, Robert prefers brunettes over blondes

 

 

This may come as a surprise but I have a low opinion of Renly. This is one of the reasons why.

Edited July 20, 2023 by BlackLightning

[Sandy Clegg]

16 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think anyone has to put it in Renly's head that Margaery and Lyanna look alike. Because they clearly don't. I think Renly just thinks that:

Exactly. If they clearly look nothing alike, then it's all the more suspicious that Renly says:

 ... there were those who said she looked like Lyanna.

I guess for Renly it's a dead-end line of enquiry.

But then ...  he lied when he said he'd heard rumours of their resemblance, or Ned just doesn't see the resemblance. Or the rumours were bullshit and designed to send Renly on a wild goose chase. Or he was just mistaken about the whole thing. If she really doesn't look like Lyanna, who told him she did?

16 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

• Lyanna and Margaery were objectively beautiful brunettes and that, therefore, they must look alike.

I mean, this is possible, and maybe it was a wild shot in the dark. But not narratively very satisfying.

More interestingly, could Renly have planned to 'fix up' R+M .... just purely out of love for his brother? Maybe he was sick of seeing Cersei make a mockery of him behind his back? His ambitions to be king don't really manifest until after Robert's death, from what I can see. It'd be nice to think that Renly actually cared enough for Robert to want to see him happy. Possibly we should look to a more cynical motive, as this is Game of Thrones. But who knows ...

Edited July 20, 2023 by Sandy Clegg

[SeanF]

30 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

It still wouldn't  have worked.

Robert is not surrounded by Baratheon swords; he's surrounded by Lannister swords...chief among them being the Kingslayer. If Jaime could kill one king, what's one more? Especially since Jaime does not even like Robert. Much more than that, Jaime is unabashedly violating not only Robert as an individual but House Baratheon, the Iron Throne and the Kingsguard as institutions by repeatedly sexing and impregnating his wife. Not to mention the type of damage this does to House Lannister.

I don't think fans quite understand how serious it is for someone like Jaime (and Cersei) to be doing this. This is an egregious crime. If Jaime can do this, then murder is not off the table.

If anything untoward happens to Cersei and/or her children and Robert is even remotely believed to be tied to it, Jaime WILL kill him. And given how out of shape Robert is, it'll be easy. And Jaime, being the idiot that he was at this point, will make a messy scene of it and leave ZERO room for doubt.

And then you have a massive crisis in which a knight sworn to protect and serve the royal family has murdered not one but two kings and sat on his ass while the king's relatives were left to fend for themselves. Except this time around, Jaime -- more than likely -- has to crown himself the King in order to protect himself from the likes of Ned Stark and Stannis Baratheon.

 

It would've been a nightmare.

In terms of poisoning, Varys and LF would be the go-to men.  Robert doesn’t even have to be told.

Cersei won’t become a septa, and unless her incest with her brother is revealed, murder is the only way of ending the marriage.

We know Renly is entirely indifferent about taking human life.

[astarkchoice]

Lets see about this plan

Had robert fallen for maegery and gone all henry 8th. 

Robert will have to  follow up his sneaking around with a public declaration thus there may be a full court to hold jamie back.

Cersei will storm back to casterly rock with the kids ( robert will prob make a half assed gesture  and make them heirs until more come from margery) tywin will begin prep for war esp with sellsword  company hiring.

Ned, hoster, jon arryn and stannis will back robert as bkth their leige and the personal relationships they have with them...but they will give him a shouting at in private over being so stupid (stannis sticking with his arranged marriage to a ugly hairy lipped bitch wife for dutys sake has gotta be extra bitter to swallow)

Dorne will be keen to sink the boot into the lannsiters, the ironborn may choose now to attack too! 

The vale : now this could be swayed if  LF can make lysa kill jon early and he lands a deal with tywin!

Varys : wont like potential of reach and robert being united as that pretty much ends aegons chances of taking the throne...infeel hed vist robert with his crossbow

[BlackLightning]

Just now, SeanF said:

We know Renly is entirely indifferent about taking human life.

Right but Renly doesn't have the stomach to take an active part in the taking of human life nor do I believe he has the stomach to actually play a more passive contributing or affirmative role.

And killing Cersei doesn't make things better. Jaime will still leap at the opportunity to kill Robert. He almost killed Robert in Darry over the Arya situation and Robert had less than nothing to do with it.

There's no way that Renly's plan doesn't start a massive war that the Greyjoys, the Martells and Varys do not exploit.

[Ran]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

ight but Renly doesn't have the stomach to take an active part in the taking of human life nor do I believe he has the stomach to actually play a more passive contributing or affirmative role.

This is, once again, a fucking TV show thing that Renly was squeamish about the sight of blood. He's a knight, he's taken his lumps, and dealt them, and has seen death up close at tourneys and when he was a boy at Storm's End. There is no sign that he lacked physical courage or the ability to personally kill an opponent in battle.

Fuck the TV show for wrecking perceptions of Renly and Loras.

Edited July 20, 2023 by Ran

[SeanF]

10 minutes ago, Ran said:

This is, once again, a fucking TV show thing that Renly was squeamish about the sight of blood. He's a knight, he's taken his lumps, and dealt them, and has seen death up close at tourneys and when he was a boy at Storm's End. There is no sign that he lacked physical courage or the ability to personally kill an opponent in battle.

Fuck the TV show for wrecking perceptions of Renly and Loras.

Fuck popular history too.

I think they’re based on Prince Edward and Piers Gaveston.  So much popular history, and novelisation, treats the pair as being like Mr. Humphrys, from Are You Being Served.

In reality, Edward was a disastrous king, but a valiant warrior, while Piers was a champion tournament fighter, who had campaigned in Ireland.

[Craving Peaches]

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Right but Renly doesn't have the stomach to take an active part in the taking of human life nor do I believe he has the stomach to actually play a more passive contributing or affirmative role.

He was all for the assassination of Daenerys, I'd say that's quite an active part in taking human life.

He also jousts and hunts just like everyone else.

After the Hunt his clothes were splattered with blood:

Quote

 He had only to look down at Robert to know how bad it was. "What …?" he began, his throat clenched.

"A boar." Lord Renly was still in his hunting greens, his cloak spattered with blood.

And he's in the room when Robert is grievously wounded.

So the idea of him being squeamish or whatever doesn't line up with the text.

If you mean Renly doesn't have the stomach to go through with a risky plan or whatever, he was willing to try and pull of a coup with Ned and then crown himself King despite not having the best claim, so...

[BlackLightning]

@Craving Peaches @Ran

I stand corrected then. You both are right.

But if it makes you two feel better, I actually kinda like Loras. My problem is with Renly. Their "fruity" and more squeamish depiction in the show has almost nothing to do with my low opinion of him.

In any case, positioning the daughter of the Lord of Highgarden and Warden of the South as a royal mistress would have gone over badly. Note how Aegon IV -- disgusting as he was -- had enough sense to not provoke the Great Houses by taking one of their daughters, wives, sisters or mothers to bed as his mistress. Although Aerys II clearly wanted Joanna for himself and made a habit out of brutalizing Rhaella, he never once tried to end his marriage with Rhaella and send her off to some hovel of a septry.

If Renly had his way, Robert would worse than Aerys, Aegon and Rhaegar combined. If Renly had his way, the Lannisters would almost be justified to act the way they do...which in and of itself is madness.

And this of course, just a matter of making Margaery the King's paramour. For Robert to pull an Henry VIII and treat Cersei like Catharine of Aragon just so he can roll around with Margaery...it would be beyond madness. I hate the Lannisters (or rather, the main branch of House Lannister) but such an act would be so outrageous, I'd want to fight for them.

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

If you mean Renly doesn't have the stomach to go through with a risky plan or whatever, he was willing to try and pull of a coup with Ned and then crown himself King despite not having the best claim, so...

More like I meant Renly doesn't have the stomach to kill Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen

[SeanF]

21 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

@Craving Peaches @Ran

I stand corrected then. You both are right.

But if it makes you two feel better, I actually kinda like Loras. My problem is with Renly. Their "fruity" and more squeamish depiction in the show has almost nothing to do with my low opinion of him.

In any case, positioning the daughter of the Lord of Highgarden and Warden of the South as a royal mistress would have gone over badly. Note how Aegon IV -- disgusting as he was -- had enough sense to not provoke the Great Houses by taking one of their daughters, wives, sisters or mothers to bed as his mistress. Although Aerys II clearly wanted Joanna for himself and made a habit out of brutalizing Rhaella, he never once tried to end his marriage with Rhaella and send her off to some hovel of a septry.

If Renly had his way, Robert would worse than Aerys, Aegon and Rhaegar combined. If Renly had his way, the Lannisters would almost be justified to act the way they do...which in and of itself is madness.

And this of course, just a matter of making Margaery the King's paramour. For Robert to pull an Henry VIII and treat Cersei like Catharine of Aragon just so he can roll around with Margaery...it would be beyond madness. I hate the Lannisters (or rather, the main branch of House Lannister) but such an act would be so outrageous, I'd want to fight for them.

More like I meant Renly doesn't have the stomach to kill Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen

I don’t think Renly would lose any sleep over the three “abominations”.

[Craving Peaches]

11 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

More like I meant Renly doesn't have the stomach to kill Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen

Myrcella and Tommen maybe, as they are young and impressionable enough, but what do you think he was going to do with Joffrey if he won the WotFK and took King's Landing? Bear in mind he has an antagonistic relationship with Joffrey and Cersei, and everyone notes Joffrey was uncontrollable.

[BlackLightning]

Just now, Craving Peaches said:

Myrcella and Tommen maybe, as they are young and impressionable enough, but what do you think he was going to do with Joffrey if he won the WotFK and took King's Landing? Bear in mind he has an antagonistic relationship with Joffrey and Cersei, and everyone notes Joffrey was uncontrollable.

Joffrey would not be the first king to be overthrown and sent to the Wall in chains.

[Craving Peaches]

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Joffrey would not be the first king to be overthrown and sent to the Wall in chains.

Maybe, but Renly might think it safer to just kill him. No one likes him and I'm sure in a scenario where Renly takes King's Landing there will be all sorts coming forth to announce all the mad/cruel things Joffrey did like having Sansa beaten, shooting starving people, his general nature etc. and this would make him look like Aerys III, as Tyrion said.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Craving Peaches said:

Maybe, but Renly might think it safer to just kill him. No one likes him and I'm sure in a scenario where Renly takes King's Landing there will be all sorts coming forth to announce all the mad/cruel things Joffrey did like having Sansa beaten, shooting starving people, his general nature etc. and this would make him look like Aerys III, as Tyrion said.

No one would mourn Joffrey or Cersei and he’d kill Tommen and Myrcella to be on the safe side.

[Craving Peaches]

35 minutes ago, SeanF said:

No one would mourn Joffrey or Cersei and he’d kill Tommen and Myrcella to be on the safe side.

I think Tommen and Myrcella's death depends on whether people seriously accept the bastard story or not and what effects this has. If people don't believe it, then Tommen and Myrcella are the Lannister claimants, but they are also young, impressionable children. Potentially they can be kept as 'indoctrinated' hostages rather than killing them. Since Renly would have control of the claimants it would be harder for Lannister faction than if they are dead, then Lannisters could just declare X king or declare independence (although I doubt that would last long). On the other hand if people do believe it they are just bastard children so there is no need to kill them. Tommen can go to the Wall and Myrcella to the Silent Sisters.

[BlackLightning]

Bear in mind, in order for us to get to the "killing Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen" conversation, the reality is that there are more Lannister soldiers in King's Landing than there are Baratheon soldiers and that they'd be under the command of Cersei and Jaime.

So, in order for this to work, you'd have to first deal with Jaime. It'd be best to poison him first. Then your second order of business would be to either get rid of the Lannister guards in the city or get enough Baratheon (and Tyrell) guards in the city so that they will outnumber the Lannisters 3-to-1.

But you can't do that without sounding the alarm. So if this plan is to be successful while also minimizing the amount of bloodshed, the first thing that you need to do is to NOT to convince Robert that Margaery Tyrell is a better option than Cersei. The first thing you need to do is kill Jaime Lannister.

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by BlackLightning

[Nathan Stark]

6 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

More interestingly, could Renly have planned to 'fix up' R+M .... just purely out of love for his brother? Maybe he was sick of seeing Cersei make a mockery of him behind his back?

I don't really buy this line of thought specifically. Sure, I think Renly loved Robert in his way, but he certainly doesn't act in Robert's best interest a lot of the time. In the Sansa chapter where she is eating at the feast being presided over by Robert, she overhears Robert, roaring drunk, arguing with Cersei over appearing in the tourney melee. Afterwards, both Cersei and Robert storm off, but Renly follows Robert carrying some amount of wine, despite Robert already being enormously drunk. I have an older brother who himself has issues with alcohol, and make it a point to not drink around him. So Renly following his drunken brother with even more alcohol strikes me as very bad form, and that is being generous, which I rarely am concerning Renly.

So yeah. Not a fan.

[Alester Florent]

3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Bear in mind, in order for us to get to the "killing Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen" conversation, the reality is that there are more Lannister soldiers in King's Landing than there are Baratheon soldiers and that they'd be under the command of Cersei and Jaime.

We don't know exactly what the numbers were. While there are a fair number of Lannister men in KL and seemingly not many Crownlands soldiers loyal to Robert directly, Renly has men there and so does Ned. Before that, there were presumably more Baratheon men there (with Stannis) and Arryn men too, who could be counted on in the event of a full Lannister/Robert kickoff even if Stannis and Jon weren't on board with Renly's plan. And if Margaery came to King's Landing to meet Robert, she would probably bring a Tyrell escort with her, on top of however many men Loras has with him.

Ned's position is weak not just because of the number of Lannister men but because he has dissipated his own resources, sending a quarter of his guards away even before the skirmish with Jaime. And Beric's force included not just Stark men but Beric himself and Gladden Wylde (sworn to Renly) and Lothar Mallery (sworn to Robert) who could probably have been called on in the event of a crisis together with their men. And Ned is also reluctant to recruit Renly as an ally and bring his men across, which would surely have at least doubled Ned's numbers even if "a hundred swords" was an exaggeration (which I don't think it was). And Ned also makes the decision not to use the element of surprise to strike at the Lannisters before they can prepare, instead choosing to take them on head-on, which is one of the reasons he thinks he needs the Gold Cloaks.

I think there was the opportunity at some point for a properly-planned move against the Lannisters, by the pragmatic Renly/Robert rather than the honourable-to-a-fault Ned, to work. Obviously it would entail large risks, but nothing in this kind of scenario is risk-free.

 

Edited July 21, 2023 by Alester Florent

[Darth Sidious]

The Tyrells are Targaryen loyalists. Which means they did not start plotting until after the death of Aerys.