Fantasy Football Experts League 2023

[Whiskeyjack]

4 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Not gonna lie, I don't like that roster

After a few drafts, think it's pretty clear you and I have very different values this year.  

Also in general, think the most successful people in auctions typically try to focus their money on their starting lineup rather than the bench.  Depth is nice, but you're going to churn a lot of those spots anyway.  It's a bit different in our leagues because they're so deep, but ultimately, I'd rather aim for the best lineup than have a bunch of $7 players sitting on my bench. 

There's more to it than that, but don't want to get into the theory and strategy too much.  End of the day, last year Race had the best team with a heavy stars and scrubs approach, but Jace did win it all by relying on depth.  So either way can work. 

Edited September 5 by Whiskeyjack

[grozeng]

I'm in the stars and scrubs category too.  It generally works for me, but I did come in last in one league last year.  That was more because I thought I was on max bid during the draft for Yahoo but was on my budget.  So I blew all my money without getting a backup QB and then my starter got injured.

 

We still need someone for Dynasty if anyone is interested

Edited September 5 by grozeng

[briantw]

QB Lamar Jackson
QB Matt Stafford
RB Saquon Barkley
RB Breece Hall
RB Antonio Gibson
WR Ja'Marr Chase
WR Garrett Wilson
WR Treylon Burks
WR Van Jefferson
TE Mark Andrews
TE Jake Ferguson
K Justin Tucker
DEF Miami
DEF Seattle

BN Desmond Ridder
BN Tyler Allgeier
BN Zach Charbonnet
BN Sam LaPorta
BN Jonathan Mingo
BN Jayden Reed
BN Marvin Mims
BN Kareem Hunt
BN Isaiah Likely
BN Jacksonville

I'm happy with that team.  I've got three top 10-12 picks in Barkley, Chase, and Wilson, plus Mark Andrews, who is generally picked around the 2/3 turn.  Hall would have been a top ten guy too had he not torn his ACL last year.  Going to need at least one of my rookie WRs to hit, though, because I'm pretty thin at the position after Chase and Wilson on paper.  Although having those two guys will make up for some lackluster production from the other two spots.  I'm pretty high on Mims (especially with Jeudy likely to miss several weeks) and Reed, and I wouldn't be shocked if Mingo is the top receiver on the Panthers this year simply due to lack of competition.

I normally take a more conservative approach to auctions, but I threw that out the window this year and I think my two auction teams have been better for it. 

[Mudguard]

I've tried both approaches, and agree that you can win with both.  With the stars approach, the big risks are that one or more of your stars gets significantly injured or is a bust.  It's really hard to recover from that without any depth.

With the depth approach, the team is usually very solid and can cope with busts and injuries, does especially well during bye week hell, but normally has a lower scoring potential unless you hit on at least a couple of your value picks.  The good thing is that this approach yields a ton of value picks, so odds that you hit aren't bad.

If I didn't get Mahomes, I probably would have went with a value approach.  Also, RB prices went lower than I was expecting and WR prices were higher, so I ended up going heavy on RBs even though I was planning on a zero RB type approach.  

[Tywin et al.]

7 hours ago, Whiskeyjack said:

After a few drafts, think it's pretty clear you and I have very different values this year.  

Also in general, think the most successful people in auctions typically try to focus their money on their starting lineup rather than the bench.  Depth is nice, but you're going to churn a lot of those spots anyway.  It's a bit different in our leagues because they're so deep, but ultimately, I'd rather aim for the best lineup than have a bunch of $7 players sitting on my bench. 

There's more to it than that, but don't want to get into the theory and strategy too much.  End of the day, last year Race had the best team with a heavy stars and scrubs approach, but Jace did win it all by relying on depth.  So either way can work. 

And just like that, $43 Kelce fucks his leg up. Meanwhile for that amount I got both my starting QBs and TEs. 

[briantw]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

And just like that, $43 Kelce fucks his leg up. Meanwhile for that amount I got both my starting QBs and TEs. 

Mark Andrews was 12 lmao. 

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, briantw said:

Mark Andrews was 12 lmao. 

I think that's rich tbh, but not crazy. $43 however on any player in leagues with this many starters is just wild, let alone for a TE. 

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think that's rich tbh, but not crazy. $43 however on any player in leagues with this many starters is just wild, let alone for a TE. 

Eh...seems fair for the consensus number two TE in an auction.  And yeah, considering that Barkley, Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Lamar all went for less than $43 despite the fact that all will, if healthy, outscore Kelce significantly, it's a lot of money.  Love Kelce, but when we've got this many starters, spending that much on any single one when you can get a guy who will probably score 80-90% of his points for less than a third of the money isn't the way to go.

If this were TE premium, maybe.

[grozeng]

One last ditch effort (until next week if this does not work).  We just need one owner to draft.  No long term commitment.  Right after the draft, I will switch the league to a generic email (or we can do that before and you just login) and then I will edit the lineups during the season based on Yahoo projected points.

So if anyone has time Friday for one last draft, please consider helping us out!!

[Whiskeyjack]

Power Rankings after Week 1

1) Whiskeyjack:  9-0
2) Race:  8-1
3) Mudguard:  7-2
4) POTN:  6-3
5) Jaime:  5-4
6) JJ Lannister:  4-5
7) Dunk:  3-6
8) Jaxom:  2-7
9) Tywin:  1-8
10) Brian:  0-9

[Kalbear]

Quote

And just like that, $43 Kelce fucks his leg up. Meanwhile for that amount I got both my starting QBs and TEs. 

 

On 9/12/2023 at 5:37 AM, Whiskeyjack said:

Power Rankings after Week 1

1) Whiskeyjack:  9-0
2) Race:  8-1
3) Mudguard:  7-2
4) POTN:  6-3
5) Jaime:  5-4
6) JJ Lannister:  4-5
7) Dunk:  3-6
8) Jaxom:  2-7
9) Tywin:  1-8
10) Brian:  0-9

Looks like you got what you paid for

[RaceBannon42]

On 9/5/2023 at 5:45 PM, Tywin et al. said:

And just like that, $43 Kelce fucks his leg up. Meanwhile for that amount I got both my starting QBs and TEs. 

The gap between Kelce as TE1 and  Andrews at TE2 was way bigger than any other position. Coming into the season consensus amongst experts is there are 6 starting quality TE's the leanest position by far, and we start 2 TE's my spreadsheet had Kelce valued at $65 with our league settings.

Now I probably shouldn't have take Allen he was my 4th big money player. I thought i had my budget set for max bid, not reaming budget, so i had about $20 less than I thought, and missed out on a lot of players.  I am way thin and my Defenses aren't going to score 52 points every week, so i could be in trouble but no regrets on $43 for Kelce.  

[Kalbear]

I dunno @RaceBannon42 it looks pretty serious from this video

https://bleacherreport.com/videos/462402-travis-kelce-trolls-knee-injury

[Mudguard]

2 hours ago, RaceBannon42 said:

The gap between Kelce as TE1 and  Andrews at TE2 was way bigger than any other position. Coming into the season consensus amongst experts is there are 6 starting quality TE's the leanest position by far, and we start 2 TE's my spreadsheet had Kelce valued at $65 with our league settings.

Now I probably shouldn't have take Allen he was my 4th big money player. I thought i had my budget set for max bid, not reaming budget, so i had about $20 less than I thought, and missed out on a lot of players.  I am way thin and my Defenses aren't going to score 52 points every week, so i could be in trouble but no regrets on $43 for Kelce.  

I think Kelce at 43 was fine, for the reasons you state.  That gap in the TE position is a big advantage over every other team.  Every other position has a bunch of great and very good players, so it's normally not too difficult to fill out the rest of your team even after spending a big premium on the TE spot.   I've drafted Kelce many times in the past and have generally done well with the approach.  I probably bid up to 42 against you before bailing.  Really wanted to get him.

[Tywin et al.]

I just think TE adds the least value. If you're going to spend that percentage of money one one guy, I'd rather get an elite QB or WR.

[Mudguard]

Outside of Kelce, I would agree with you.  But Kelce consistently puts up numbers like a top WR, except that you are getting this type of production from your TE.  He's also the top target by far for the best QB in the league.  I'd rather get Kelce over Chase because there are plenty of WRs that go in the 30's or 20's that are really good and aren't a big step down from Chase.    

Once I failed to get Kelce, I was happy just picking up scrubs for my TEs.

[JJ Lannister]

@Whiskeyjack That was just brutal. Any stat corrections and I'm screwed. 

[Whiskeyjack]

Looks like I lost on the last extra point. 

Yeah....tough one.

[Whiskeyjack]

On 9/18/2023 at 11:10 PM, Whiskeyjack said:

Looks like I lost on the last extra point. 

Yeah....tough one.

As a follow up to this - just realized that I would have won if they kept the Deebo TD as a pass from Purdy, instead of a run. 

[Whiskeyjack]

Power Rankings after Week 2

1) Race:  15-3
2) POTN:  14-4
3) Mudguard:  13-5
4) Whiskeyjack:  11-7
-- Jaxom:  11-7
6) Jaime:  9-9
7) JJ Lannister:  7-11
8) Brian:  5-13
9) Dunk:  4-14
10) Tywin:  1-17