Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[the trees have eyes]

On 4/14/2024 at 1:33 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

Are you enjoying your paddle? 

The seas are calm and we're set fair, cap'n, not an iceberg within a hundred miles. 

15 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Tyrion dying would certainly create chaos akin to Joffrey dying.

In today's society a president dying would create more chaos than a random person dying, but so would if the person who died was at the same time the former VP, current ministry of economy and the heir to Elon Musk.

Erm, no, that's a wild take.  It would be better off to argue than no one would notice Sansa slipping out quietly rather than keep asserting that Tyrion choking on his pie would have wedding guests trampling each other in a panic but it's up to each of us what we find plausible.   It's a royal wedding feast in a feudal monarchy, the guests are the great and the good, many of them experienced in combat and messy deaths.  There needs to be a big enough shock and a good enough reason for everyone to scarper.  Tyrion?

Tyrion is small beer (sorry, but this is an ableist society), he's the dwarf expected to ride the pig and get laughed at, not the second most revered man in the 7K as you imply.

The King, on the other hand, is a whole different kettle of fish.

On 4/14/2024 at 1:33 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

A king dying signals many fearful things. Regime change. Knives coming out. Searches for culprits. You can see why people wouldn't want to hang around - if a king can be killed, who's next?

Exactly this.  Tyrion himself muses he should leave.  Oberyn thanks Tyrion for being the object of suspicion, otherwise it might have been him.  It's a giant round of musical chairs and no one wants to be the last one left standing and facing suspicion.  With Tyrion choking, suspicion, if there is any, is on Joffrey, maybe Sansa.  No one else needs to worry and no one needs to run like mad.

[Frey family reunion]

On 4/13/2024 at 12:16 PM, Alester Florent said:

FWIW, I see no particular reason to doubt the official story we've had revealed to us in the books. We can second-guess the text all day but we're given no real reason to in this case. GRRM's plotting doesn't tend to be that intricate or deceptive. People do things which aren't necessarily perfectly rational, or which carry a degree of risk, both in real life and in these stories, and where we can say "but what if this happened, and then what if this happened?" sure we can poke holes in the plan, but the fact is, if the plan was to kill Joffrey, permit Sansa's getaway, and escape the blame, then it worked perfectly. That there was a small chance it might not have done is irrelevant - assasssinating kings is never a risk-free business!

We have one very particular reason to doubt the official story, in that GRRM specifically told us that he may have some surprises in store with regards to the conclusion that Olenna poisoned Joffrey.  

As for practical reasons to doubt this version, we have one very significant one, in that Olenna probably couldn’t have reached the chalice to drop the poison.  The chalice was drunk without issue by Joffrey and then placed on top of the table in front of Tyrion. 

When Tyrion was told by Joffrey to serve him, Tyrion had to stand up on his chair to reach the chalice.  Olenna who is about as tall as Tyrion would have had a lot of trouble to have dropped the poison into the chalice.  Especially since she would have had to have once again left her place at the Dias to do so.  

It’s possible that Margaery could have poisoned the chalice.  And maybe that’s the surprise GRRM alluded to.  Olenna did give a specific look to Margaery when Sansa told her about Joffrey being a monster.  Perhaps Olenna taught Margaery the fine art of poisoning and left it up to Margaery to rid herself of her future husband if that’s what she wanted to do.

Of course, I still suspect that George may be playing with Sansa’s POV, and having her repress her own actions at the wedding.  After all, there is really only one person who would have been in the best position to have either dropped the poison in Joffrey’s chalice or Tyrion’s pie, and that would be Sansa.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

Erm, no, that's a wild take.  It would be better off to argue than no one would notice Sansa slipping out quietly rather than keep asserting that Tyrion choking on his pie would have wedding guests trampling each other in a panic but it's up to each of us what we find plausible.   It's a royal wedding feast in a feudal monarchy, the guests are the great and the good, many of them experienced in combat and messy deaths.  There needs to be a big enough shock and a good enough reason for everyone to scarper.  Tyrion?

Tyrion is small beer (sorry, but this is an ableist society), he's the dwarf expected to ride the pig and get laughed at, not the second most revered man in the 7K as you imply.

The King, on the other hand, is a whole different kettle of fish

Poisoning Joffrey would create a bigger stir.  But Tyrion choking to death would still probably cause quite a stir as well.  And once again, I think we’re overestimating how hard it would have been for Sansa to have slipped out without anyone even choking to death.  We hear from the Kingsguard just how hard it was to keep track of everyone during the wedding especially at the time of the Pie.  The only one really paying attention to Sansa at the wedding, was Tyrion.  And if he was the one choking to death, he’d be in a pretty bad position to note her leaving early.

And the one big benefit for both Olenna and Petyr in Tyrion being the victim, is that Sansa suddenly becomes free to marry.  

1 hour ago, the trees have eyes said:

Exactly this.  Tyrion himself muses he should leave.  Oberyn thanks Tyrion for being the object of suspicion, otherwise it might have been him.  It's a giant round of musical chairs and no one wants to be the last one left standing and facing suspicion.  With Tyrion choking, suspicion, if there is any, is on Joffrey, maybe Sansa.  No one else needs to worry and no one needs to run like mad.

If Tyrion choked to death, would there have been any real suspicion to go around?  After all don’t forget the whole point of the poison.  The plotters were hoping that it would appear to all that the victim choked to death on his food.  It was Joffrey’s death and Cersei’s accusation against Tyrion, that first laid the idea that a poison was used.

Cersei would not have made that accusation if Tyrion had choked to death.  Unfortunately for Tyrion, his death wouldn’t lead to a lot of questions because he wasn’t terribly popular, even among his own family.

The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage.  But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to dare lose Highgarden as an ally.  Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa.  They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

Edited April 15 by Frey family reunion

[Nevets]

@CamiloRP

Edited April 15 by Nevets
Double post, ignore.

[Nevets]

15 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Poisoning Joffrey would create a bigger stir.  But Tyrion choking to death would still probably cause quite a stir as well.  And once again, I think we’re overestimating how hard it would have been for Sansa to have slipped out without anyone even choking to death.  We hear from the Kingsguard just how hard it was to keep track of everyone during the wedding especially at the time of the Feast.  The only one really paying attention to Sansa at the wedding, was Tyrion.  And if he was the one choking to death, he’d be in a pretty bad position to note her leaving early.

If Tyrion choked to death, would there have been any real suspicion to go around?  After all don’t forget the whole point of the poison.  The plotters were hoping that it would appear to all that the victim choked to death on his food.  It was Joffrey’s death and Cersei’s accusation against Tyrion, that first laid the idea that a poison was used.

Cersei would not have made that accusation if Tyrion had choked to death.  Unfortunately for Tyrion, his death wouldn’t lead to a lot of questions because he wasn’t terribly popular, even among his own family.

The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage.  But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to date lose Highgarden as an ally.  Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa.  They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

Sansa is seated next to Tyrion, who is her husband.  As such, she is likely to be noticed if anything happens, and leaving could be difficult.  Besides, what do you think her reaction will be if she sees her husband choking next to her?  Run screaming from the room?  Not if she's the same person we saw at the Blackwater, when she assisted a visibly injured Lancel, tending his wounds and seeing he got medical help.  She'd probably be kneeling next to Tyrion trying to help him  And even if she isn't, leaving unaccompanied is likely to be difficult.  It certainly isn't something a sensible planner would count on.  At least with Joffrey, there is likely going to be a commotion, and she has no connection to him so slipping out is a reasonable possibility.

Olenna doesn't have to put the poison in the chalice herself.  I have always suspected Garlan, who is family, at the table, and tall enough to slip the poison into the chalice.  

[the trees have eyes]

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The only real negative for Tywin would be that his death would free up Sansa to be taken to Highgarden for marriage.  But it probably wouldn’t be a big enough negative to dare lose Highgarden as an ally.  Which is the whole reason they had to rush the marriage of Tyrion and Sansa.  They knew if push came to shove, they couldn’t stop Olenna from taking Sansa to Highgarden to marry her off.

TBH, I see it more as a positive for Tywin.  He can get Joffrey to dismiss / honourably discharge Jaime from the KG and lo and behold he has the heir to Casterly Rock that Aerys robbed him of so many years ago.  Plus he can marry Jaime to Sansa which aggrandises his House and keeps the Tyrells from becoming too powerful.  I don't think he would do Tyrion any harm but I don't think he would mourn him much.

12 hours ago, Nevets said:

Sansa is seated next to Tyrion, who is her husband.  As such, she is likely to be noticed if anything happens, and leaving could be difficult.  Besides, what do you think her reaction will be if she sees her husband choking next to her?  Run screaming from the room?  Not if she's the same person we saw at the Blackwater, when she assisted a visibly injured Lancel, tending his wounds and seeing he got medical help.  She'd probably be kneeling next to Tyrion trying to help him  And even if she isn't, leaving unaccompanied is likely to be difficult.  It certainly isn't something a sensible planner would count on.

Unless Sansa herself was the poisoner  (as per @Frey family reunion's thread).  But how could the planners have anticipated her active involvement indeed, it's quite a gamble on their part if they did.

[BSDNW]

That Jamie will be the valonqar. Such a turn undoes his arc in Feast of separating himself from Cersei. Also he's her twin, the fact she was born minutes before doesn't matter, age differences are counted by years. Furthermore, the dream Jamie has where Tywin, Cersei, and then him all appear and implied to be dead (don't remember the exact paragraph, it's been years since I've read the books), "the light goes out so must you." This does imply he will outlive his sister. 

 

If anyone in the kingsguard is going to kill Cersei, my money is on Loras. 

[Alester Florent]

43 minutes ago, BSDNW said:

That Jamie will be the valonqar. Such a turn undoes his arc in Feast of separating himself from Cersei. Also he's her twin, the fact she was born minutes before doesn't matter, age differences are counted by years. Furthermore, the dream Jamie has where Tywin, Cersei, and then him all appear and implied to be dead (don't remember the exact paragraph, it's been years since I've read the books), "the light goes out so must you." This does imply he will outlive his sister.

How does Jaime's outliving Cersei suggest he will not be the valonqar?

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, BSDNW said:

That Jamie will be the valonqar. Such a turn undoes his arc in Feast of separating himself from Cersei. Also he's her twin, the fact she was born minutes before doesn't matter, age differences are counted by years. Furthermore, the dream Jamie has where Tywin, Cersei, and then him all appear and implied to be dead (don't remember the exact paragraph, it's been years since I've read the books), "the light goes out so must you." This does imply he will outlive his sister. 

 

If anyone in the kingsguard is going to kill Cersei, my money is on Loras. 

Jaime killing his twin sister would be a grim end for both of them.

[House Cambodia]

59 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Jaime killing his twin sister would be a grim end for both of them.

I'm still tickling myself with an idea I had in another thread - that in the prologue to TWOW, Sybell Spicer (Maggie the Frog's granddaughter) prophesies to Jamie that he will be killed by his sister. Won't their meeting up be interesting!