Renly and his AGOT plot

[James Steller]

I’ll be blunt; it doesn’t make sense to me.

Don’t get me wrong, I can easily imagine why Renly would want to have Margaery as Robert’s queen instead of Cersei, but what exactly was his plan? Did he think Robert could simply put Cersei aside and remarry? The last king who tried something like that was Maegor, and we know what happened to him. Cersei is the daughter of Tywin Lannister, one of the most powerful men in the realm. Did Renly really think that the Lannisters would just accept that sort of treatment? Even with the Stark/Tully/Arryn/Tyrell support, it is a deeply unwise move to spit in Tywin’s face like that. As a minimum, he would recall the debt owed him by the Crown (which Renly didn’t help with his frivolous spending as Master of Laws, but anyway). 

Also, does Renly assume that Robert will disinherit his children with Cersei? I don’t remember if it was ever established how much Renly knew about Cersei and Jaime, but regardless, this idea of his makes me tilt my head. Mace Tyrell is too ambitious to just have his daughter be a second wife and stepmother to the king’s children. They’ll want Margeary’s children to inherit the throne. I get that Renly hates books so he won’t recall how the Dance began, but why would the Tyrells ever join him in this farce?   

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not defending Tywin or Cersei or her incest kids. But Renly’s plot feels like he really didn’t think there’d be any consequences to his scheme. And I’m trying to be generous and not just write him off as an idiot. So am I missing something? 

Edited January 31 by James Steller

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Did he think Robert could simply put Cersei aside and remarry?

Yes, more or less. Cersei and Pycelle, and by implication Varys and Stannis, all seemed to consider Renly's plot at least credible.

 

2 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Also, does Renly assume that Robert will disinherit his children with Cersei?

Doesn't matter. First step is wedging Cersei and the Lannisters out of power and the Tyrells and Renly into it. The children can be a problem for another time.

Mace Tyrell dreamed of being father to a queen, and he's an oaf. But it's not clear he is fully on board, per Varys. who said they were trying to convince him to send Margaery. 

It's 100% the case that Renly saw the short-term mechanics primarily, and wasn't concerned with the long-term except as vague things they could deal with when they came to him.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

As a minimum, he would recall the debt owed him by the Crown (which Renly didn’t help with his frivolous spending as Master of Laws, but anyway). 

Evidence for this please? If you are referring to LF's remark about his good fashion sense, there is no indication that comes from crown revenue, or that it was done in his capacity as Master of Laws. Renly is LP of the Stormlands, I think he is able to afford these things himself, and you could bet Stan Stan would be moaning if he was spending the crown's money on clothes.

Edited January 31 by Craving Peaches

[James Steller]

13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Evidence for this please? If you are referring to LF's remark about his good fashion sense, there is no indication that comes from crown revenue, or that it was done in his capacity as Master of Laws. Renly is LP of the Stormlands, I think he is able to afford these things himself, and you could bet Stan Stan would be moaning if he was spending the crown's money on clothes.

Hehe, I figured you'd catch that. I admit, I couldn't resist putting that in there for you.  

I freely admit I was basing that entirely on Littlefinger's jibe. Whether the money was coming from the Royal Treasury or whether it was coming from Renly's own coffers, I don't know. I was just tweaking your nose in good humour, Peachy. 

 

Though to be fair, not even Stannis has enough time to complain about everything in life that annoys him.

Edited January 31 by James Steller

[Canon Claude]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Yes, more or less. Cersei and Pycelle, and by implication Varys and Stannis, all seemed to consider Renly's plot at least credible.

 

That doesn't make sense either. Why would they think it was credible? Jaime doesn't think Robert likes Renly at all, but Cersei thinks Robert will listen to Renly's advice to metaphorically smoke a cigarette on the Hindenberg? 

 

1 hour ago, James Steller said:

I’m trying to be generous and not just write him off as an idiot. So am I missing something? 

1 hour ago, Ran said:

It's 100% the case that Renly saw the short-term mechanics primarily, and wasn't concerned with the long-term except as vague things they could deal with when they came to him.

Guess Steller wasn't missing anything: Renly is just being a short-sighted idiot. So why would Varys and Pycelle take him seriously??

[Craving Peaches]

31 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Hehe, I figured you'd catch that. I admit, I couldn't resist putting that in there for you.  

Not sure whether to be flattered you care so much about me, or to continue to be offended on King Renly's behalf. 

31 minutes ago, James Steller said:

I freely admit I was basing that entirely on Littlefinger's jibe.

LF can't really talk though. According to the Wiki (citations not included):

Quote

Petyr owns a slashed velvet doublet in cream-and-silver, a plum-colored doublet with a mockingbird embroidered on the breast in black thread, a blue velvet tunic with puffed sleeves, and a black velvet doublet with grey sleeves. He is partial to shades of rose and plum. His cloaks, which are clasped with a silver mockingbird, include grey silk trimmed with black fox, stripes of black and white, and a pattern of mockingbirds. Petyr also owns a yellow satin cape and a silver cape patterned with mockingbirds. He also owns a pair of red-dyed leather boots ornamented with black scrollwork.

He's also happy investing in 'the drip'. Probably with the monies he embezzled.

23 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

So why would Varys and Pycelle take him seriously??

Because they aren't Stannis fans.

Edited January 31 by Craving Peaches

[Frey family reunion]

Renly's plan makes more sense if he had come to the conclusion that Cersei's children were illegitimate.  He confides in Loras and they plan on introducing Robert to Margaery before they voice their suspicions to Robert.  That way, they already have the inside track on the new Queen.  They likewise remove Joffrey, Tommen and Myrcella from succession and Margaery's future children will inherit the throne.

The plan changes abruptly when Robert is gored by the boar.  Now, if the illigitimacy of the children are revealed that gives Stannis a legitimate claim to the throne and the last thing the Tyrells would want is Stannis on the throne.  So instead Renly keeps quiet about what he knows and plays coy when Stannis publicizes his suspicions, so Stannis doesn't have a better claim to the throne than him.

[James Steller]

3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

Not sure whether to be flattered you care so much about me, or to continue to be offended on King Renly's behalf. 

Come now, I'll be the first to admit that a good sense of humour is one of Renly's best traits. I'm sure he'd be fine with a jibe at his expense.  

6 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

 

LF can't really talk though. According to the Wiki (citations not included):

He's also happy investing in 'the drip'. Probably with the monies he embezzled.

Absolutely, he's one of the biggest scumbags of the series. Far worse than Renly as a person. But that doesn't necessarily make him wrong about Renly's spending habits either (not that I'm trying to create a serious argument about it, mind you).

[Craving Peaches]

3 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Come now, I'll be the first to admit that a good sense of humour is one of Renly's best traits. I'm sure he'd be fine with a jibe at his expense. 

If he was still alive, maybe... 

[Ran]

 

41 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

That doesn't make sense either. Why would they think it was credible? Jaime doesn't think Robert likes Renly at all,

Not exactly true. Robert loved his brothers, GRRM says, but it was complicated -- Renly was much younger, he didn't really know him as such. I don't know why Jaime would assume Robert actively disliked Renly, as opposed to Stannis. Except maybe that Renly reminded RObert too much of his own glory days, before he got into a terribly unhappy marriage and went to fat? Maybe, but yeah, I'll go with George on this.

41 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

but Cersei thinks Robert will listen to Renly's advice to metaphorically smoke a cigarette on the Hindenberg? 

This is about the precariousness of Cersei's relationship with Robert more than anything. They were deeply estranged, and he was a man of appetites who could be led by them... and Cersei and the Lannisters had enemies who would back Robert if push came to shove, or so those who knew of the plotting believed.

41 minutes ago, Canon Claude said:

Guess Steller wasn't missing anything: Renly is just being a short-sighted idiot. So why would Varys and Pycelle take him seriously??

He's not being an idiot. Once the Tyrells are in the power position, the children aren't really a problem, and if they start to become one, they can be dealt with.

13 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Renly's plan makes more sense if he had come to the conclusion that Cersei's children were illegitimate

He did not in fact come to that conclusion. No one believes he knew. They knew Stannis and Jon Arryn did, but not Renly, and still he was plotting his plot and none of them think this strange (including Stannis!). Again, it's about the power dynamics at court, and the sense that Cersei and Tywin were deeply dangerous and inimical to any other family that might strive to gain influence.

Edited January 31 by Ran

[Craving Peaches]

If Renly knew about the incest, he would instantly reveal it to Robert because it would mean his Margaery plan was almost guaranteed to succeed.

[Frey family reunion]

13 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

If Renly knew about the incest, he would instantly reveal it to Robert because it would mean his Margaery plan was almost guaranteed to succeed.

Nope he would want to introduce Robert to Margaery first and hope that Robert takes an interest so they would have the inside track on the new queen once they revealed Cersei’s infidelity.  

[Frey family reunion]

52 minutes ago, Ran said:

He did not in fact come to that conclusion. No one believes he knew. They knew Stannis and Jon Arryn did, but not Renly, and still he was plotting his plot and none of them think this strange (including Stannis!). Again, it's about the power dynamics at court, and the sense that Cersei and Tywin were deeply dangerous and inimical to any other family that might strive to gain influence.

But how do we know he didn't come to that conclusion?  He claims he didn't to Stannis and Cat but it's also in his best interest at that point in time to ridicule Stannis' claim because it gives Stannis a legitimate right to the throne.  A legitimacy that Renly can't claim.  If you look at the Small Council, Pycelle knew, Littlefinger knew, Varys knew, Stannis and Jon suspected, so it seems unlikely that Renly (and Barristan) would be the only two who didn't suspect.

The difference between Jon and Stannis, is that they were trying to compile proof to take to Robert.  They didn't have any ulterior motives.  Pycelle obviously kept mum, because he was a fervent Lannister supporter.  Varys and Littlefinger kept mum because it either didn't benefit their agendas, or they wanted to hold it close to vest until they could use it to their benefit. 

My guess is Renly might have been closer to Varys and Littlefinger.  He had his own agenda to make his friend's sister queen, so he could gain further influence at court and with Margaery's heir.

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

But how do we know he didn't come to that conclusion?

We can't prove a negative. But nobody (IC) believes Renly knows about the incest, he himself says he didn't know, and he didn't mention it on a couple of occasions when it might have helped his cause (when attempting to form his alliance with Ned on Robert's deathbed, for instance, or indeed when claiming the throne himself).

I'm inclined to take the text at pretty much face value here, because there is very little if anything that points towards Renly's knowing (beyond a vague sense that "everyone knew", which is manifestly not the case), and quite a bit that suggests he didn't.

[astarkchoice]

Renly clearly wanted some of that lyanna obsession to help margery win over robert, the wealth of the reach could fill the gap of lannister money and of course renly and robert would be surrounded by people they like not the lannisters who they despise

As for putting kids aside  if tywin rages and is provoked robert will put him down with the quickness, he could try and disown the kids with cersei as half traitor and disown them....of course just like renlys claim such a thing would have 0 merit and no precedence but tied into the north,vale, riverlands, crownlands and now the reach it wouldnt matter! Tywin and cersei would be left to rage impotently and robert and margeys kids would have the 'legitimacy' of the backing of 5-6kingdoms. 

[James Steller]

15 minutes ago, astarkchoice said:

 

As for putting kids aside  if tywin rages and is provoked robert will put him down with the quickness, he could try and disown the kids with cersei as half traitor and disown them....of course just like renlys claim such a thing would have 0 merit and no precedence but tied into the north,vale, riverlands, crownlands and now the reach it wouldnt matter! Tywin and cersei would be left to rage impotently and robert and margeys kids would have the 'legitimacy' of the backing of 5-6kingdoms. 

I really don’t think that would be so simple. Robert wouldn’t be have any reason for divorce except that he just wants a new wife. It would set a bad precedent in terms of marriage in the eyes of the Faith, plus Tywin would be able to lend a golden thumb on that scale. Plus the nobles would see it as a threat. If Robert snubs and insults the Lannisters, imagine what he might do next.
The only way it would work is if Stannis and Jon Arryn had brought forth their own evidence that Cersei’s children aren’t Robert’s. That at least would allow Robert the “moral high ground” in Westerosi society. 
It never fails to astound me how much trouble would have been avoided if the Baratheon brothers actually got along and worked together as a family. 

Edited February 1 by James Steller

[astarkchoice]

6 hours ago, James Steller said:

I really don’t think that would be so simple. Robert wouldn’t be have any reason for divorce except that he just wants a new wife. It would set a bad precedent in terms of marriage in the eyes of the Faith, plus Tywin would be able to lend a golden thumb on that scale. Plus the nobles would see it as a threat. If Robert snubs and insults the Lannisters, imagine what he might do next.
The only way it would work is if Stannis and Jon Arryn had brought forth their own evidence that Cersei’s children aren’t Robert’s. That at least would allow Robert the “moral high ground” in Westerosi society. 
It never fails to astound me how much trouble would have been avoided if the Baratheon brothers actually got along and worked together as a family. 

Well it didnt stop a certain fat english king robert may be  partialy based on (henry 8)

You are right that stannis and jon arryn would probably slink in and promote the bastard  twincest angle BUT we are talkking about renlys plot/thinking

Im not sure renly knew about the twincest just that he wanted to advance the tyrells who he loved and get rid of the hateful and dangerous lannisters around him and his brother.

We see renlys thinking as he moves to be king himself , he points out robert had no legitimate claim and seems to somewhat correctly hold that its actualy might makes right (shit look at the back and forth wars with the targs over who should rule..in the end the ruler is picked by the sword not bloodlines)

Renly isnt talking into account the effect of knowing  stannis, ned and jon arryn  who are all about doing your duty could have/is having on robert! Hes simply thinking of his and his brotherd welfare and happiness as well as the sheer strength the new regime would have from fhe reach. Legitmacy wise theres enough young people to intermarry to keep the regime  renly would make with robert+ margery stable.for generations

 

 

Edited February 1 by astarkchoice

[James Steller]

3 hours ago, astarkchoice said:

Well it didnt stop a certain fat english king robert may be  partialy based on (henry 8)

And look at the consequences of such an action. Look how much changed in European history with such a controversial decision. Henry and his descendants had to deal with social and religious backlash, wars, and permanently reshaped cultural and political lines. The after effects are still playing out to this day.

It’s debatable whether Henry fully understood the gravity of his situation and what he was getting himself into with that decision. But Renly seems completely oblivious of any such consequences.

Edited February 1 by James Steller

[astarkchoice]

21 minutes ago, James Steller said:

And look at the consequences of such an action. Look how much changed in European history with such a controversial decision. Henry and his descendants had to deal with social and religious backlash, wars, and permanently reshaped cultural and political lines. The after effects are still playing out to this day.

It’s debatable whether Henry fully understood the gravity of his situation and what he was getting himself into with that decision. But Renly seems completely oblivious of any such consequences.

True but i suppose that the counterargument is unlike henry he  could potentialy set up a regime so stable and powerful its not gona be challenged for at least 3 generations+ ! Tywin alone is too weak to do much alone (despite unlimited wealth ehivh makes 0 sense) 

margerys + roberts kids, stannis daughter, neds huge brood, edmure,willas ,jon arryn and harry the heir all remain ripe for marriages arranged to strengthen the new regime further like marrying into dornish or ironborn houses etc

[Alester Florent]

42 minutes ago, James Steller said:

And look at the consequences of such an action. Look how much changed in European history with such a controversial decision. Henry and his descendants had to deal with social and religious backlash, wars, and permanently reshaped cultural and political lines. The after effects are still playing out to this day.

It’s debatable whether Henry fully understood the gravity of his situation and what he was getting himself into with that decision. But Renly seems completely oblivious of any such consequences.

Eh... I don't want to understate the importance of Henry's actions, but I also think it's possible to overstate them in a context where the Reformation was happening across Europe anyway and Henry was a massive egotist who might well have found reasons to fall out with the Pope at a later stage irrespective.

It didn't even wreck Henry's diplomacy that badly: Charles might have opposed the divorce, but it didn't stop him making alliances with Henry again a few years later, and his French diplomacy was if anything even less effective. Elizabeth had to face wars with Spain, yes, but that was as much down to Philip wanting to reassert his authority over England after Mary's death as it was a religious issue. It's not like everyone being Catholic had prevented wars like that before. And of course things would likely have been very different had Edward lived, even if we can't say exactly how.

In any case, the consequences mostly bit because Henry was dealing with a large, powerful, international church which was for exceptional reasons unable or unwilling to accommodate a request which under normal circumstances would probably have been flagged through. Robert doesn't have that problem.