No Rhae of hope

[Aldarion]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The dragon has three heads, not one or two. And there are three dragons, not one or two. Dany and Jon clearly are two heads and two future dragonriders and also future lovers/spouses.

But there is a third one missing. And that person is not going to be the fake Aegon, the fake Stannis, the fake stone beast breathing shadow fire, etc. It also won't be Victarion or Euron or Brown Ben even if one of them were to become a placeholder dragonrider.

The third head will be a main character. And that only leaves Tyrion. He is the only reasonable choice.

Doesn't mean he has to be Dany's half-brother. But it is not unlikely.

Tyrion would - and actually seems to have been set up, perhaps unconsciously - as an anti-Jon, a twisted mirror image of the hidden prince. Jon is a prince allegedly born of rape disguised as a motherless bastard, while Tyrion is a bastard (born of rape) disguised as a great lord's son (or 'prince' if we use the term more broadly).

There is great potential there, much more than in the Lannister story which doesn't go away as Joanna Lannister is still his mother. And Tywin is a dead secondary character, like Ned. Ned remains Jon's 'true father' just as Tywin remains the man who brought up Tyrion.

Aegon is another plot entirely. He shows how you can exploit people's hopes by way of propping up a fake pretender.

Dragon has three heads. Or maybe he doesn't. Who is to say that Rhaegar wasn't mistaken in his prophecy? And even if we assume that he wasn't mistaken... as I said, Tyrion is literally the worst choice for a third dragonrider. And we already have anti-Jon in Aegon, there is no need for Tyrion to be there as well.

And no, Aegon is not "showing how you can exploit people's hopes by way of propping up a fake pretender". Rather, he is there for Daenerys. Specifically, to crack open Daenerys and her presupositions and beliefs. We see that Daenerys has built up a lot of her identity around being the last Targaryen and avenger of her family, but she also (occasionally) daydreams about what will have happened had Aegon and Rhaenys (and specifically Aegon) not been murdered. So when she meets Aegon and he is on the throne, what will win? Her desire for family or her desire for power? And his existence will later affect her meeting with Jon Snow as well.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Dragon has three heads. Or maybe he doesn't. Who is to say that Rhaegar wasn't mistaken in his prophecy? And even if we assume that he wasn't mistaken... as I said, Tyrion is literally the worst choice for a third dragonrider. And we already have anti-Jon in Aegon, there is no need for Tyrion to be there as well.

And no, Aegon is not "showing how you can exploit people's hopes by way of propping up a fake pretender". Rather, he is there for Daenerys. Specifically, to crack open Daenerys and her presupositions and beliefs. We see that Daenerys has built up a lot of her identity around being the last Targaryen and avenger of her family, but she also (occasionally) daydreams about what will have happened had Aegon and Rhaenys (and specifically Aegon) not been murdered. So when she meets Aegon and he is on the throne, what will win? Her desire for family or her desire for power? And his existence will later affect her meeting with Jon Snow as well.

Rhaegar isn't the only source for this, nor did he decide to put three dragons in the story. Tyrion is the most obvious, and the best candidate to be a dragonrider. He was so since AGoT. It works best with the Targaryen backstory but just as well without that since we also have Dragonbinder.

Aegon is not there for Daenerys, just as Stannis isn't. Both feature as fake saviors in one of her prophecies, but this doesn't mean she, personally, has to unmask, fight, and defeat them. She might, but chances that she will ever meet Stannis are pretty low ... and Aegon might bite the dust, too, long before she moves her lazy ass west.

Aegon is not a variation of the Jon Snow theme. Jon (and Tyrion, in my idea) are people whose mothers died birthing them and asked their male loved ones to raise their child as their own. Aegon is more like Cersei's children, being deceived about who he truly is by his parents/guardians. Aegon is an alleged prince in exile, not a hidden prince in the sense that he himself (and the reader) don't know who he is. Aegon's big plot twist might be the same as Tommen's or Myrcella's ... learning that they are not who they think they are, and losing their entire identity in the process of that revelation.

And insofar as a potential conflict goes ... Aegon and his people will start it, not Dany. Because she would add her strength to his and make an alliance. That will only not happen if he rejects her from the start because he feels he no longer needs her. Which he already did to a point by invading on his own and not reaching out to her.

Whoever ends up claiming Viserion and Rhaegal in Meereen will be Dany's family for the time being, proven by them having the blood of the dragon or at least the semblance of it, not some guy pretending to be her nephew. Dany believes the other two dragon heads will claim the other two dragons. So whoever does that will be very important to her. Although it might eventually be revealed that one or even two of those might turn out to be traitors or simply not the final dragonriders, those who end up doing prophecy stuff with her.

And of course Aegon is a fake savior and false king set up by Varys calculating that the Westerosi people long for a return of the golden Targaryen era. That is why he uses an alleged son of beloved Rhaegar. If he has any success at all then only because people want to believe this clichéd story. And George will have fun depicting how Aegon fucks it up. Because Aegon isn't the hero.

[Aldarion]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar isn't the only source for this, nor did he decide to put three dragons in the story. Tyrion is the most obvious, and the best candidate to be a dragonrider. He was so since AGoT. It works best with the Targaryen backstory but just as well without that since we also have Dragonbinder.

Rhaegar is the one who brought three heads into the story, I believe. And no, Tyrion is not the "most obvious and the best" candidate.

Most obvious candidate would in fact be... literally anyone else. Aegon, who even if he is not who he says he is may still be a Blackfyre. Victarion, who has the Dragonbinder. Even Brown Ben Plumm.

It is possible for Tyrion to become a dragonrider. But it doesn't make sense within his own storyline.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon is not there for Daenerys, just as Stannis isn't. Both feature as fake saviors in one of her prophecies, but this doesn't mean she, personally, has to unmask, fight, and defeat them. She might, but chances that she will ever meet Stannis are pretty low ... and Aegon might bite the dust, too, long before she moves her lazy ass west.

He doesn't even need to be alive for what I wrote to work... but it will be far better if they do actually meet.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon is not a variation of the Jon Snow theme. Jon (and Tyrion, in my idea) are people whose mothers died birthing them and asked their male loved ones to raise their child as their own. Aegon is more like Cersei's children, being deceived about who he truly is by his parents/guardians. Aegon is an alleged prince in exile, not a hidden prince in the sense that he himself (and the reader) don't know who he is. Aegon's big plot twist might be the same as Tommen's or Myrcella's ... learning that they are not who they think they are, and losing their entire identity in the process of that revelation.

 

Maybe. But that in no way negates the relation to Daenerys that I have described. So far she had been completely certain in her right to the Iron Throne and that she is on a righteous crusade... there needs to be a point where that will be brought into question. And no, Jon Snow does not work for that, because I do not see his trajectory coming anywhere near the Iron Throne. Even if he does become a king, that will happen only after the Long Night.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And insofar as a potential conflict goes ... Aegon and his people will start it, not Dany. Because she would add her strength to his and make an alliance. That will only not happen if he rejects her from the start because he feels he no longer needs her. Which he already did to a point by invading on his own and not reaching out to her.

Or maybe both will start it. Aegon because he feels he doesn't need her any more, and Daenerys because she has become paranoid over visions and prophecies.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Whoever ends up claiming Viserion and Rhaegal in Meereen will be Dany's family for the time being, proven by them having the blood of the dragon or at least the semblance of it, not some guy pretending to be her nephew. Dany believes the other two dragon heads will claim the other two dragons. So whoever does that will be very important to her. Although it might eventually be revealed that one or even two of those might turn out to be traitors or simply not the final dragonriders, those who end up doing prophecy stuff with her.

Maybe. But that is a big maybe. You want to see a basically straight road with no crossroads or bumps ahead of her, but that isn't how Martin writes stuff.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And of course Aegon is a fake savior and false king set up by Varys calculating that the Westerosi people long for a return of the golden Targaryen era. That is why he uses an alleged son of beloved Rhaegar. If he has any success at all then only because people want to believe this clichéd story. And George will have fun depicting how Aegon fucks it up. Because Aegon isn't the hero.

Yet it is likely he will be a popular king (possibly even a good one). Meanwhile Daenerys will be bringing barbarians and pirates to Westeros, making her invasion potentially nearly as bad as that of the Other - thus inverting the typical relationship between a good rightful king and an evil usurper.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

On 2/28/2024 at 10:42 PM, Roswell said:

Rhaenys, Rhaenyra, Rhaella, Rhaegar, Rhaego.  All of them died before their time while they were still young.  Jon Snow could be a bastard son of Rhaeger and Lyanna.  Lyanna was crazy enough to dare name her bastard Rhaegar after his royal father.  Jon was killed for betraying the Night's Watch.  That puts him in the pattern of the Rhaes.  I am actually happy about his death.  But I am worried about Dany's dragon, Rhaegal. 

Rhaegal and his rider will probably bite the dust.  That is probably Fake Aegon.

Jon already bit the dust, or the snow rather and he is not coming back as a warm-blooded human.  He will come back as the personification of the ice dragon to take Arya away from, I would guess the Boltons or the Freys.  He gets a little bit of time before he melts and fades away like the ice dragon.  He is not a Targaryen.

The Rhaes were broken potentials among the Targaryens.  They were not the real deal.  Daenerys is the real Azor Ahai and the promised one they have waited for so long.

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Rhaegar is the one who brought three heads into the story, I believe. And no, Tyrion is not the "most obvious and the best" candidate.

Most obvious candidate would in fact be... literally anyone else. Aegon, who even if he is not who he says he is may still be a Blackfyre. Victarion, who has the Dragonbinder. Even Brown Ben Plumm.

It is possible for Tyrion to become a dragonrider. But it doesn't make sense within his own storyline.

It makes sense, because Tyrion is 'dragon guy' since AGoT. The only dragonlore expert we have, and the only guy who actually dreams of dragons in the story aside from Teora Toland and Daenerys.

Tyrion is the character most associated with dragons aside from Dany. I mean, it is kind of silly to assume that any of Dany's dragons are destined from the start of the story for the likes of Brown Ben or Victarion, right?

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

He doesn't even need to be alive for what I wrote to work... but it will be far better if they do actually meet.

If he dies early then his would be a completely different role. Which would be fine, too. Euron could easily enough take care of him and he and Cersei would be much better and more dangerous 'mundane opponents' for Daenerys, anyway.

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Maybe. But that in no way negates the relation to Daenerys that I have described. So far she had been completely certain in her right to the Iron Throne and that she is on a righteous crusade... there needs to be a point where that will be brought into question. And no, Jon Snow does not work for that, because I do not see his trajectory coming anywhere near the Iron Throne. Even if he does become a king, that will happen only after the Long Night.

What would be the point of such a plot? She only does what she does because she feels it is her duty as the last member of her family. If there was another she could retire or follow her own dreams. But even if such a plot would come it would be better if a real pretender were to challenge her, not a fake one. And Aegon is a fake. And like Stannis is a fake savior many people know or suspect on the basis of his silly fake sword, Aegon's true identity might be out in the open undermining his claim long before Dany even shows up. Just as people already know who Tommen and Myrcella actually are.

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Or maybe both will start it. Aegon because he feels he doesn't need her any more, and Daenerys because she has become paranoid over visions and prophecies.

Dany wants family, you say. And you are right there. But these people do incest and they did polygamy in the past. Even if both were married and in love by the time they meet, they could marry each other. Dany has no intrinsic motivation to kill her nephew, but he already abandoned her. It is clear who will make this not work.

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Maybe. But that is a big maybe. You want to see a basically straight road with no crossroads or bumps ahead of her, but that isn't how Martin writes stuff.

I made it clear that the (placeholder) dragonriders should win her trust and might betray her. Those are a lot of bumps and problems, they just don't involve Aegon.

16 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Yet it is likely he will be a popular king (possibly even a good one). Meanwhile Daenerys will be bringing barbarians and pirates to Westeros, making her invasion potentially nearly as bad as that of the Other - thus inverting the typical relationship between a good rightful king and an evil usurper.

Aegon might be successful as a conqueror in the beginning, but he won't be a successful king. He isn't the hero, he is the Mummer's Dragon, literally a prop in a play for the real hero (Dany) to fight. He is a fake king and a fake savior. Like Stannis, he will help to push Westeros further into darkness and despair. That is obvious, as he is propped up by a magic-hating eunuch at a time when magic is the one thing that could, perhaps, save Westeros. Aegon is a secular savior at at time when this world is in desperate need of a magical savior.

And we already have a big hint how his reign is going to turn into a catastrophe - his Hand is not only a dead man walking risking a lot because he has no time for caution ... he also is the carrier of a deadly disease which can and did turn into a monstrous pandemic in the past. George didn't waste entire paragraphs on the three strains of greyscale/the grey plague to convince us that Jon Connington's infection is only endangering Jon Connington. Ditto with Shireen's seemingly dormant greyscale in the North.

You don't see a core theme of the story - the magical dimension. Yes, Dany might launch an invasion with many foreigners the Westerosi people would loathe if they came in a normal season. But they won't. They will come in the new Long Night, when the dead rise from their graves and ice demons stalk the roads. They will need dragons, they will need fire mages, and they will need the promised prince.

Aegon won't be able to give them any of that. In fact, if he is going to team up with the Faith as he might he might even fight against the converts to R'hllor in the Riverlands and other genuine magical traditions, people Westeros desperately needs to survive.

And with Euron and Stannis and Cersei and Littlefinger and Jon Snow and whoever else might form their own faction still out there, chances are very low indeed that Aegon could ever form a united front against Daenerys. And all people who might end up declaring for Aegon will be Targaryen loyalists enough to switch to another Targaryen pretender if she looks better/stronger (which she will, as a dragonrider and the person who brought the dragons back). Also, of course, all factions still opposing Aegon by the time Dany arrives are her natural allies, a fact that could create strange bedfellows indeed.

[Aldarion]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It makes sense, because Tyrion is 'dragon guy' since AGoT. The only dragonlore expert we have, and the only guy who actually dreams of dragons in the story aside from Teora Toland and Daenerys.

Tyrion is the character most associated with dragons aside from Dany. I mean, it is kind of silly to assume that any of Dany's dragons are destined from the start of the story for the likes of Brown Ben or Victarion, right?

And? That only means that he will be relevant to the dragon story, not that he himself will become a dragonrider.

In fact, "small guy casting a big shadow" would seem to indicate that he will become a politician instead, new Tywin, affecting things from the shadows by influencing people and their actions. He has already started.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If he dies early then his would be a completely different role. Which would be fine, too. Euron could easily enough take care of him and he and Cersei would be much better and more dangerous 'mundane opponents' for Daenerys, anyway.

Cersei wouldn't. She has no chance of being dangerous opponent to anyone any more. She had been exposed to mockery, her power largely broken, her fleet has deserted her, and even if she somehow recovers, she is too insane to be a threat to anybody. 

Stannis, Aegon and Euron are literally the only major players left in the game in Westeros right now.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What would be the point of such a plot? She only does what she does because she feels it is her duty as the last member of her family. If there was another she could retire or follow her own dreams. But even if such a plot would come it would be better if a real pretender were to challenge her, not a fake one. And Aegon is a fake. And like Stannis is a fake savior many people know or suspect on the basis of his silly fake sword, Aegon's true identity might be out in the open undermining his claim long before Dany even shows up. Just as people already know who Tommen and Myrcella actually are.

No, she doesn't. Daenerys likes to think she only does what she does because she feels it is her duty. And luckily for her... as the last member of her family, she can do what she does without feeling any internal conflict about it! But introducing Aegon means that she has to confront herself about what she truly wants. Does she want the family? Does she want to rule? Does she want both, and if so, what is more important to her?

People who want Aegon to be some evil usurping tyrant, or even just fake and/or incompetent, typically want it precisely to avoid said conflict, so that Daenerys can just murder him and take the throne completely free of guilt. But that would be a boring choice, and not how Martin generally writes things.

Fact is that Daenerys has had no major moral dilemma so far. Her only opponents until now had been slavers. No dilemma there - world is definitely better off without them. In Westeros, you have Euron, Victarion and Cersei. What to do, what to do, just burn them. Jon Snow is a decent person, but he will never sit on or even seek the Iron Throne - no moral dilemma there, either. So that leaves only Aegon.

But making Aegon into a fake usurping tyrant means that Daenerys doesn't have to face moral dilemma there either. It is a bad choice for storytelling, and it also significantly cheapens Daenerys' character. It is unlikely Martin, or any halfway decent writer, would do what you are suggesting here.

That is why it is unlikely we will ever learn if Aegon was a fake as well. Sure, his story is a stretch - but there is no "smoking gun" to prove that he truly is a fake. So people in the story will do precisely what people in real life do when confronted with him - they will decide whether he is real or fake based on their emotional preferences.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany wants family, you say. And you are right there. But these people do incest and they did polygamy in the past. Even if both were married and in love by the time they meet, they could marry each other. Dany has no intrinsic motivation to kill her nephew, but he already abandoned her. It is clear who will make this not work.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany wants family, you say. And you are right there. But these people do incest and they did polygamy in the past. Even if both were married and in love by the time they meet, they could marry each other. Dany has no intrinsic motivation to kill her nephew, but he already abandoned her. It is clear who will make this not work.

Yet just above you said this:

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What would be the point of such a plot? She only does what she does because she feels it is her duty as the last member of her family. If there was another she could retire or follow her own dreams. But even if such a plot would come it would be better if a real pretender were to challenge her, not a fake one. And Aegon is a fake. And like Stannis is a fake savior many people know or suspect on the basis of his silly fake sword, Aegon's true identity might be out in the open undermining his claim long before Dany even shows up. Just as people already know who Tommen and Myrcella actually are.

Which is it? Will it be Aegon who will start conflict, or will Daenerys conclude that he is a fake and thus start a war before even meeting him?

Seems to me you are just choosing whatever will make Aegon look as bad as possible without even bothering to keep your argument consistent with itself, let alone with the story.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I made it clear that the (placeholder) dragonriders should win her trust and might betray her. Those are a lot of bumps and problems, they just don't involve Aegon.

So there will be a lot of bumps and problems... except for the one that is personally and emotionally relevant to her?

That would just make her into a boring Mary Sue. I mean, we already know she isn't dying before the Long Night comes. She needs some true obstacles - and by that I mean emotional obstacles, because as I said, physically she is perfectly safe with her plot armor.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon might be successful as a conqueror in the beginning, but he won't be a successful king. He isn't the hero, he is the Mummer's Dragon, literally a prop in a play for the real hero (Dany) to fight. He is a fake king and a fake savior. Like Stannis, he will help to push Westeros further into darkness and despair. That is obvious, as he is propped up by a magic-hating eunuch at a time when magic is the one thing that could, perhaps, save Westeros. Aegon is a secular savior at at time when this world is in desperate need of a magical savior.

None of which means he will be a bad king. It just means that he is not the "Prince That Was Promised" or whatever.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And we already have a big hint how his reign is going to turn into a catastrophe - his Hand is not only a dead man walking risking a lot because he has no time for caution ... he also is the carrier of a deadly disease which can and did turn into a monstrous pandemic in the past. George didn't waste entire paragraphs on the three strains of greyscale/the grey plague to convince us that Jon Connington's infection is only endangering Jon Connington. Ditto with Shireen's seemingly dormant greyscale in the North.

Yes, and? Also, Grayscale and Grey Plague are not the same. Sure, both carriers of grayscale may turn out to be carriers of grey plague, but the main impact of it was to make Connington throw caution to the wind.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You don't see a core theme of the story - the magical dimension. Yes, Dany might launch an invasion with many foreigners the Westerosi people would loathe if they came in a normal season. But they won't. They will come in the new Long Night, when the dead rise from their graves and ice demons stalk the roads. They will need dragons, they will need fire mages, and they will need the promised prince.

 

Yet we don't even know if people down South will ever see the Others and the Wights. Winterfell. The place where winter fell.

Nor do we know when invasion of the Others will start. She may come before the Others invade... or come after they do and still launch invasion of the south while north is in danger. We don't know.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon won't be able to give them any of that. In fact, if he is going to team up with the Faith as he might he might even fight against the converts to R'hllor in the Riverlands and other genuine magical traditions, people Westeros desperately needs to survive.

 

I don't buy that. Old Gods may be of help, but R'hllor is opposed to literally every other religion. Red Priests believe all other gods to be fake - and that includes the Old Gods.

Fire is not going to save Westeros from ice. If fire wins, people of Westeros will be just as screwed as they will be if ice wins.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And with Euron and Stannis and Cersei and Littlefinger and Jon Snow and whoever else might form their own faction still out there, chances are very low indeed that Aegon could ever form a united front against Daenerys. And all people who might end up declaring for Aegon will be Targaryen loyalists enough to switch to another Targaryen pretender if she looks better/stronger (which she will, as a dragonrider and the person who brought the dragons back). Also, of course, all factions still opposing Aegon by the time Dany arrives are her natural allies, a fact that could create strange bedfellows indeed.

Euron has only Iron Islands, Cersei will either die or run off to Westerlands, and Jon Snow is busy in the North. 

And Daenerys is not going to look better with all the barbarians at her back.

[Eli Cross]

On 2/29/2024 at 10:42 AM, Roswell said:

Rhaenys, Rhaenyra, Rhaella, Rhaegar, Rhaego.  All of them died before their time while they were still young.  Jon Snow could be a bastard son of Rhaeger and Lyanna.  Lyanna was crazy enough to dare name her bastard Rhaegar after his royal father.  Jon was killed for betraying the Night's Watch.  That puts him in the pattern of the Rhaes.  I am actually happy about his death.  But I am worried about Dany's dragon, Rhaegal. 

They Rhaes are just people who needed to get removed from Dany's path so she can become the ruler of Westeros.  She is the female Aegon the Conqueror who will build back the kingdom and bring the remaining families in line. 

[Lord Varys]

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

And? That only means that he will be relevant to the dragon story, not that he himself will become a dragonrider.

In fact, "small guy casting a big shadow" would seem to indicate that he will become a politician instead, new Tywin, affecting things from the shadows by influencing people and their actions. He has already started.

Dragonrider and politician are not mutually exclusive. But the notion that this hideous kinslayer monstrosity ends up being allowed into the inner circles of the absent queen Daenerys - or into her own after her eventual return - is just a huge stretch. He has nothing to offer but the worst reputation imaginable, a hideous face, and neither gold nor swords.

Even right now the notion that he can actually direct the Second Sons is barely believable. He bribed Ben with empty promises ... something that only worked because Ben and his buddies aren't exactly keen to die for the Yunkai'i.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Cersei wouldn't. She has no chance of being dangerous opponent to anyone any more. She had been exposed to mockery, her power largely broken, her fleet has deserted her, and even if she somehow recovers, she is too insane to be a threat to anybody. 

Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. If she lives and can leave KL to return to CR she will be a very powerful force again. Even more so if she ends up allying with and marrying Euron.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Stannis, Aegon and Euron are literally the only major players left in the game in Westeros right now.

And the Lords of the Vale, the Riverlords and common Riverlanders hellbent on payback, partially directed by an undead monstrosity, literally tens of thousands of Reach men, etc. They all have choices to make and a lot to offer.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

No, she doesn't. Daenerys likes to think she only does what she does because she feels it is her duty. And luckily for her... as the last member of her family, she can do what she does without feeling any internal conflict about it! But introducing Aegon means that she has to confront herself about what she truly wants. Does she want the family? Does she want to rule? Does she want both, and if so, what is more important to her?

She certainly wants to rule ... but she already has a people. Peoples, plural, in fact. Westeros is but a name to her right now,  a name and a place she doesn't care much about. Technically she should decide to stay in Essos as the actual roots of Valyrian dragonlords are in Essos. She is now in the unique position to try to build a new Valyria in the old Valyrian colonies. Why not take over Volantis and unify all the other Free Cities under her rule, creating a new Valyrian empire?

And it is pretty obvious that what's going to convince her to move west when she does isn'+ütt going to be talk about Aegon, but information about the Others and the prophecy given to her by Archmaester Marwyn. The Aegon thing might play a minor role, but it isn't the core of that plot.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

People who want Aegon to be some evil usurping tyrant, or even just fake and/or incompetent, typically want it precisely to avoid said conflict, so that Daenerys can just murder him and take the throne completely free of guilt. But that would be a boring choice, and not how Martin generally writes things.

Nobody said anything about Aegon being killed. He could easily enough be just deposed. That Aegon is not going to be a good or successful king or a hero is unfortunately foreshadowed. That is not something that is up for debate. Even without prophecy stuff pointing in that direction it is quite clear the lad has no chance against Euron-Cersei-Stannis-Littlefinger, etc. He can become a warlord and pretender to the Iron Throne (while sitting it) but he won't unify the Seven Kingdoms again nor control more than a tiny fraction of it.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Fact is that Daenerys has had no major moral dilemma so far. Her only opponents until now had been slavers. No dilemma there - world is definitely better off without them. In Westeros, you have Euron, Victarion and Cersei. What to do, what to do, just burn them. Jon Snow is a decent person, but he will never sit on or even seek the Iron Throne - no moral dilemma there, either. So that leaves only Aegon.

I don't think the plot indicates that we are going to waste hundreds of pages with another Targaryen conquest campaign. Aegon will get that now, but Daenerys won't get that after him. That would be pointless. There might be a smaller scale conflict, but against the backdrop of the war against the Others.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

But making Aegon into a fake usurping tyrant means that Daenerys doesn't have to face moral dilemma there either. It is a bad choice for storytelling, and it also significantly cheapens Daenerys' character. It is unlikely Martin, or any halfway decent writer, would do what you are suggesting here.

There is no need for a moral dilemma regarding her right to rule. She her brother's heir, period. Playing that up would be as silly as demanding a struggle between the surviving Starks who should retake the North and Winterfell. We would have that in a mundane historical book series about a mundane succession war, but not in this setting.

Dany will have to deal with the legacy of her mad father, wondering whether her dynasty was actually justly deposed and now has to regain the right to rule again. But that's a dilemma all Targaryen descendants face.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

That is why it is unlikely we will ever learn if Aegon was a fake as well. Sure, his story is a stretch - but there is no "smoking gun" to prove that he truly is a fake. So people in the story will do precisely what people in real life do when confronted with him - they will decide whether he is real or fake based on their emotional preferences.

You see how it goes. People *know* or rather *believe* that Cersei's children are impostors ... yet they back(ed) them while they and their family are strong. Aegon's case will be similar, but worse because he claims to be a dead guy. People will only believe he is 'a prince' while he has success. When he shows weakness, makes mistakes, etc. people will abandon him in droves. He is the Perkin Warbeck of Westeros, not the Henry Tudor.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Yet just above you said this:

Which is it? Will it be Aegon who will start conflict, or will Daenerys conclude that he is a fake and thus start a war before even meeting him?

For Dany the actual identity of Aegon shouldn't matter all that much. She could marry her real nephew just as well as a guy who claims to be her nephew if it lends strength to House Targaryen. But she would not want to believe he is fake, nor think it her duty to rush to Westeros and stop him if she somehow knew for a fact he was fake.

I mean, she married fucking Hizdahr for peace's sake ... why not also do it with her (fake) nephew?

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Seems to me you are just choosing whatever will make Aegon look as bad as possible without even bothering to keep your argument consistent with itself, let alone with the story.

I'm not writing the story, but I point out tendencies and problems with certain ideas. A struggle between Dany and Aegon works if certain events happen - Aegon has to be successful, has to survive until she shows up, has to be unwilling to marry her, etc. - but those events are not guaranteed as of yet.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

None of which means he will be a bad king. It just means that he is not the "Prince That Was Promised" or whatever.

He can't possibly be a good king as a good king would have to restore peace to Westeros in winter and while the Others are making their move. That is impossible.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Yes, and? Also, Grayscale and Grey Plague are not the same. Sure, both carriers of grayscale may turn out to be carriers of grey plague, but the main impact of it was to make Connington throw caution to the wind.

That is you ignoring very crucial writing at the wall.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Yet we don't even know if people down South will ever see the Others and the Wights. Winterfell. The place where winter fell.

Come on, it will be months and perhaps more than a year until Dany's armies can set foot on Westerosi shores. The Others won't sit on their hands that long ... nor will people keep quiet this long. Rumors and stories will spread. These people cannot dismiss all new from the Wall when literally everybody up north is going to say the same thing.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Nor do we know when invasion of the Others will start. She may come before the Others invade... or come after they do and still launch invasion of the south while north is in danger. We don't know.

You are right that we don't know, but it is also rather obvious that two Targaryen invasions/conquests in close succession would make for poor storytelling. Even more so as there are many other plots and characters to fit together in all that. Just take Jon - he will learn who he is eventually, so he would have to make a choice there if there was all the time in the world for some Dance shenanigans while the Others sit on their hands. That's not likely to happen.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

I don't buy that. Old Gods may be of help, but R'hllor is opposed to literally every other religion. Red Priests believe all other gods to be fake - and that includes the Old Gods.

You should read George's remark about the converts in the Riverlands. Thoros' god is real to his followers, and he does answer prayers and works miracle, unlike the other deities so far. That's why he has success. And fire mages and priests will have even more success when winter has come.

I mean, seriously, Melisandre is literally hot! That might be eerie and weird and scary in normal times, but if I was stuck in a most shitty Westerosi winter I would do everything to be get close to her skirts. And not because of her gorgeous skin, but simply because it would decrease the risk of freezing to death at night.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Fire is not going to save Westeros from ice. If fire wins, people of Westeros will be just as screwed as they will be if ice wins.

Fire can kill, too, but it also symbolizes passion and life and love, something ice doesn't do. It preserves things, especially the millennia-old revenge plans of some extinct elves, but there are no pleasant qualities to ice.

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

Euron has only Iron Islands, Cersei will either die or run off to Westerlands, and Jon Snow is busy in the North.

I guess those people will then also sit on their hands for months while a feigned boy magically wins the allegiance of everybody...

On 3/4/2024 at 7:46 PM, Aldarion said:

And Daenerys is not going to look better with all the barbarians at her back.

She will stronger, she will look as if she can deal with the real crisis, something the little false plague king won't be able to do.

[Aldarion]

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

Dragonrider and politician are not mutually exclusive. But the notion that this hideous kinslayer monstrosity ends up being allowed into the inner circles of the absent queen Daenerys - or into her own after her eventual return - is just a huge stretch. He has nothing to offer but the worst reputation imaginable, a hideous face, and neither gold nor swords.

Even right now the notion that he can actually direct the Second Sons is barely believable. He bribed Ben with empty promises ... something that only worked because Ben and his buddies aren't exactly keen to die for the Yunkai'i.

Tyrion is Martin's self-insert, though. Anything is believable for him.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

Cersei is the Lady of Casterly Rock. If she lives and can leave KL to return to CR she will be a very powerful force again. Even more so if she ends up allying with and marrying Euron.

Tywin had spent Westerlands in his imperialist project. 

I did numbers here:

Westerlands have at least 10 000 men left, but very likely not more than 20 000. They are in fact region that has lost probably the greatest proportion of its fighting power in the war.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

And the Lords of the Vale, the Riverlords and common Riverlanders hellbent on payback, partially directed by an undead monstrosity, literally tens of thousands of Reach men, etc. They all have choices to make and a lot to offer.

They have.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

She certainly wants to rule ... but she already has a people. Peoples, plural, in fact. Westeros is but a name to her right now,  a name and a place she doesn't care much about. Technically she should decide to stay in Essos as the actual roots of Valyrian dragonlords are in Essos. She is now in the unique position to try to build a new Valyria in the old Valyrian colonies. Why not take over Volantis and unify all the other Free Cities under her rule, creating a new Valyrian empire?

And it is pretty obvious that what's going to convince her to move west when she does isn'+ütt going to be talk about Aegon, but information about the Others and the prophecy given to her by Archmaester Marwyn. The Aegon thing might play a minor role, but it isn't the core of that plot.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

Nobody said anything about Aegon being killed. He could easily enough be just deposed. That Aegon is not going to be a good or successful king or a hero is unfortunately foreshadowed. That is not something that is up for debate. Even without prophecy stuff pointing in that direction it is quite clear the lad has no chance against Euron-Cersei-Stannis-Littlefinger, etc. He can become a warlord and pretender to the Iron Throne (while sitting it) but he won't unify the Seven Kingdoms again nor control more than a tiny fraction of it.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

There is no need for a moral dilemma regarding her right to rule. She her brother's heir, period. Playing that up would be as silly as demanding a struggle between the surviving Starks who should retake the North and Winterfell. We would have that in a mundane historical book series about a mundane succession war, but not in this setting.

Dany will have to deal with the legacy of her mad father, wondering whether her dynasty was actually justly deposed and now has to regain the right to rule again. But that's a dilemma all Targaryen descendants face.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

You see how it goes. People *know* or rather *believe* that Cersei's children are impostors ... yet they back(ed) them while they and their family are strong. Aegon's case will be similar, but worse because he claims to be a dead guy. People will only believe he is 'a prince' while he has success. When he shows weakness, makes mistakes, etc. people will abandon him in droves. He is the Perkin Warbeck of Westeros, not the Henry Tudor.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

For Dany the actual identity of Aegon shouldn't matter all that much. She could marry her real nephew just as well as a guy who claims to be her nephew if it lends strength to House Targaryen. But she would not want to believe he is fake, nor think it her duty to rush to Westeros and stop him if she somehow knew for a fact he was fake.

I mean, she married fucking Hizdahr for peace's sake ... why not also do it with her (fake) nephew?

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm not writing the story, but I point out tendencies and problems with certain ideas. A struggle between Dany and Aegon works if certain events happen - Aegon has to be successful, has to survive until she shows up, has to be unwilling to marry her, etc. - but those events are not guaranteed as of yet.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is you ignoring very crucial writing at the wall.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

Come on, it will be months and perhaps more than a year until Dany's armies can set foot on Westerosi shores. The Others won't sit on their hands that long ... nor will people keep quiet this long. Rumors and stories will spread. These people cannot dismiss all new from the Wall when literally everybody up north is going to say the same thing.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

You are right that we don't know, but it is also rather obvious that two Targaryen invasions/conquests in close succession would make for poor storytelling. Even more so as there are many other plots and characters to fit together in all that. Just take Jon - he will learn who he is eventually, so he would have to make a choice there if there was all the time in the world for some Dance shenanigans while the Others sit on their hands. That's not likely to happen.

And what then? Information about Others might get her to move to Westeros, but had Aegon not moved there, or if he becomes a tyrant or is outed as a fake, it will be just another repeat of "save the poor from evil, evil tyrants" that we had seen her do time and again in the Slaver's Bay. Where is there personal conflict for her?

Aegon needs to be a relatively decent king if Daenerys is to further develop as a character. You want him not to be, but him being a bad king simply makes no sense considering his role in the story and relationship with Daenerys (such as it is).

Aegon is neither Henry Tudor nor Perkin Warbeck of Westeros. He is both at the same time. Just as Daenerys is not simply Henry Tudor either.

And his very existence brings into question Daenerys' right to rule so long as there is no conclusive proof he is a fake. Saying that it doesn't is just baseless fanboyism.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

He can't possibly be a good king as a good king would have to restore peace to Westeros in winter and while the Others are making their move. That is impossible.

By that logic, nobody can be a good king in Westeros. Not Aegon, not Stannis, not Daenerys, not Jon Snow.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

You should read George's remark about the converts in the Riverlands. Thoros' god is real to his followers, and he does answer prayers and works miracle, unlike the other deities so far. That's why he has success. And fire mages and priests will have even more success when winter has come.

I mean, seriously, Melisandre is literally hot! That might be eerie and weird and scary in normal times, but if I was stuck in a most shitty Westerosi winter I would do everything to be get close to her skirts. And not because of her gorgeous skin, but simply because it would decrease the risk of freezing to death at night.

Old Gods also answer prayers and work miracles. So do the Seven, though less obviously so - likely because they have no blood magic fuelling them.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

Fire can kill, too, but it also symbolizes passion and life and love, something ice doesn't do. It preserves things, especially the millennia-old revenge plans of some extinct elves, but there are no pleasant qualities to ice.

Yes, there are good qualities to ice, and you just pointed one out. Ice preserves. 

In 1984, a boy survived being drowned in icy lake for 42 minutes:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1984/01/26/the-icy-water-miracles/9f99649a-acf7-44d3-8eee-ff35a256e81c/

Italian boy survived again for 42 minutes:

https://time.com/3897897/how-an-italian-boy-survived-42-minutes-underwater/

Young woman brought back to life after three hours underneath ice:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2000/jan/28/colinblackstock1

And some people survived up to an hour submerged in icy cold water.

Ice is also used for storage. If conditions are not good, ice can preserve things so they can be retreived later.

Ice symbolizes emotional coldness and rigidity, but also purity, clarity and transformation.

So saying that fire is inherently "better" than ice is wrong. Sure, fire is necessary for survival - but so is ice. In real world, snow and ice played massive role in medieval agriculture, as melting snows watered the earth and allowed the winter crops to bloom.

https://www.bbg.org/article/a_blanket_of_snow_good_or_bad_for_plants

https://marionowenalaska.com/how-does-snow-help-and-harm-plants/

You want Daenerys to be the Only True Savior, but that laser focus is blinding you to a lot of subtext in the books.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

I guess those people will then also sit on their hands for months while a feigned boy magically wins the allegiance of everybody...

What are they going to do? Westerlands are spent, and if Aegon wins the Iron Throne, Cersei will no longer have loyalty of the Reach... or anybody outside Westerlands, really. Jon Snow certainly isn't going south, and Euron is a fake Sauron wannabe.

On 3/6/2024 at 6:32 PM, Lord Varys said:

She will stronger, she will look as if she can deal with the real crisis, something the little false plague king won't be able to do.

Yes, she will certainly look that way after she completely botched things in Astapor and Meereen...

[Here's Looking At You, Kid]

On 2/28/2024 at 10:42 PM, Roswell said:

Rhaenys, Rhaenyra, Rhaella, Rhaegar, Rhaego.  All of them died before their time while they were still young.  Jon Snow could be a bastard son of Rhaeger and Lyanna.  Lyanna was crazy enough to dare name her bastard Rhaegar after his royal father.  Jon was killed for betraying the Night's Watch.  That puts him in the pattern of the Rhaes.  I am actually happy about his death.  But I am worried about Dany's dragon, Rhaegal. 

It is consistent.  To have a name of "Rhae" ends badly.  If Jon is a "rhaegar II" then yeah he ended badly at the points of many knives.  Jon is a failure anyway.  He was supposed to guard the wall instead of starting feuds with the Boltons. 

[Lord Varys]

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

Tyrion is Martin's self-insert, though. Anything is believable for him.

Not anything, just some things which have clear foreshadowing. The dragon stuff foremost among them. But there is also a chance that he might yet become a king, as the whole thing about his shadow indicated. As tall as a king could very well mean he is going to be a king one day. 

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

Tywin had spent Westerlands in his imperialist project.

Not checking your numbers, but the Westerlands are far from spent. There were some losses in both Jaime's and Tywin's armies, but dispersed men can go back home (and likely did do just that). Ditto with the Lannisport army.

The military potential of House Lannister is about 65,000 men, according to some sources, and Tywin and Jaime together only marshaled 35,000 men.

You also have to consider how fucking rich Cersei Lannister is. If push comes to shove she can buy tens of thousands of sellswords, both in and outside of Westeros. And if she has to flee KL she might actually send representatives to the Disputed Lands to hire men with Lannister gold.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

And what then? Information about Others might get her to move to Westeros, but had Aegon not moved there, or if he becomes a tyrant or is outed as a fake, it will be just another repeat of "save the poor from evil, evil tyrants" that we had seen her do time and again in the Slaver's Bay. Where is there personal conflict for her?

Her personal conflict can revolve around other things. That she is, in the end, the true savior and not one of the fake ones like Stannis and Aegon, is actually quite clear by the plot.

The entire ironical point of her plot is the fact that she prepares for an invasion/conquest that is, most likely, not going to happen. At least not as an invasion to conquer, but as an invasion to save or to help save people.

If she were to come to Westeros as another pretender fighting for her own petty gains/ambitions they are not likely to defeat the Others. 

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

Aegon needs to be a relatively decent king if Daenerys is to further develop as a character. You want him not to be, but him being a bad king simply makes no sense considering his role in the story and relationship with Daenerys (such as it is).

Aegon is neither Henry Tudor nor Perkin Warbeck of Westeros. He is both at the same time. Just as Daenerys is not simply Henry Tudor either.

Dany is certainly not Henry Tudor, but Aegon is pretty much Perkin Warbeck (coming at a time when no Henry Tudor sits more or less securely on the throne).

Aegon is going to be good guy who might try his best ... but who will fail as a king. I've no clue if he is going to be a tyrant or a weakling or both ... but he will fail for this or that reason. Not necessarily to the point that he will be completely done by the time Dany shows up - depending on the kind of story George wants to tell - but a failure nonetheless.

Varys has set him up as the perfect prince and savior ... and he just isn't that, as he is not the hero of this story.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

And his very existence brings into question Daenerys' right to rule so long as there is no conclusive proof he is a fake. Saying that it doesn't is just baseless fanboyism.

Ah, no. He has to conclusively prove to the world and the people that he is actually Rhaegar's son ... the world and Dany don't have to disprove that claim. He claims to be a person that is officially dead for seventeen years while not even looking like a properly 18-year-old (rather like 15-16-year-old according to Tyrion).

Aegon's situation is Cersei's children reversed. Stannis and his buddies have to prove that the children Robert Baratheon raised as his own are not, in fact, his biological children, but the children don't have to prove that their legal father is their father. Because that is the status quo. The status quo regarding Aegon is that he is dead and gone. He has to make people believe that his silly fairy-tale story of benevolent eunuchs and cheesemongers and pisswater princes is true.

The only way he can hope to do that is by having success in the field. But any sign of weakness can easily reverse things. That is why Aegon was supposed to marry Daenerys and was earlier supposed to ally with Viserys III and his Dothraki. If all he has is just the word of the likes of Varys and Connington he has pretty much nothing.

And that will be his undoing, sooner or later.

The idea that some guy can just claim he is a long dead prince and thus seriously harm or damage the claim of the last genuine Targaryen who is also a kind of miracle person bringing back the extinct dragons is a pretty big stretch. Even if Aegon were genuine, there are a number of precedents where the elder line was passed over for scion of the younger, if the eldest son died. Aerys II himself named Viserys III his heir rather than Aegon, and Viserys III, in turn, named his sister Daenerys.

People who care about legal prattle in Westeros would know this ... but the dragons are a much better argument. As is the high likelihood that Aegon is a fake.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

By that logic, nobody can be a good king in Westeros. Not Aegon, not Stannis, not Daenerys, not Jon Snow.

Well, yes, of course, right now no king can be 'good' in the sense that they can't make the Realm prosper. Which is pretty much the issue we talk about here. Aegon certainly might be able to win the allegiance of a considerable number of lords and knights - for the time being, at least - but that will just further the division in the Realm and prevent the existing factions from working together. He doesn't have to be 'evil' to be forced to act as a tyrant, just as Dany doesn't have to be.

And my point never is that she will be some kind of super gentle queen or anything ... I say her personal and military power will cow people into submission and/or motivate them to join her because it is better to be in the winning team than in the loser's team.

The notion that the Westerosi give a shit about butchered Ghiscari or even Essosi from the Free Cities is very low. They do not permit slavery, either, and view the merchant lords and magisters of the Free Cities with contempt, anyway.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

Old Gods also answer prayers and work miracles. So do the Seven, though less obviously so - likely because they have no blood magic fuelling them.

Beric and Cat returning didn't involve blood magic. It just happened, and, in the belief of Thoros and his followers, because the god R'hllor himself made it happen. We have no even remotely similar miracle from any of the other deities.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

Yes, there are good qualities to ice, and you just pointed one out. Ice preserves.

Yes, but that is not mirrored by, say, a good or at least decent group of ice priests or ice sorcerers. Sure enough, there was monstrous fire magic going on in the past in Old Valyria. But that is over for centuries. The dragons are basically just animals whose existence is no threat to anyone ... while the fire magic of the red priests is, overall, a good thing, although used in questionable manners sometimes (Melisandre's shadowbinding isn't fire magic, that is shadowbinding).

The only ice magic the books have to offer so far are the magic of the Others, and they are clearly evil ice demons who want to destroy all of humanity, perhaps all life on the planet. The Valyrian mages never wanted to that, as far as we know.

In that sense, the fire mages we see in the series are champions of life. They fight the ultimate enemy. If there is an apocalypse it will be one of ice and winter and darkness, not one of fire and summer and light.#

Ice is not totally bad in principle in the books, of course. But as a faction in the symbolic 'Song of Ice and Fire' it is clearly standing for the villains, the Others, not the good guys.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

You want Daenerys to be the Only True Savior, but that laser focus is blinding you to a lot of subtext in the books.

I'm just saying that Aegon is a fake savior - regardless whether he is Rhaegar's son or not -, I'm not saying Dany is the only savior. The dragon has three heads. There are three people at the core of this prophecy, and Aegon is not not one of them. But, of course, as this is a really big ensemble show there will be other crucial heroes in addition to the three dragon heads as well. And perhaps Aegon might even play a small part there. I'm not running around saying he must die early.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

What are they going to do? Westerlands are spent, and if Aegon wins the Iron Throne, Cersei will no longer have loyalty of the Reach... or anybody outside Westerlands, really. Jon Snow certainly isn't going south, and Euron is a fake Sauron wannabe.

The Westerlands are not spent, Aegon has a lousy power base even with Dorne, and Euron is the most dangerous - and likely most powerful - player in the entire book series. If you don't see that, I can't help you. We are entering the magical volumes of this fantasy series now. What Mel did for Stannis in ACoK will pale compared to what spells Euron (and others) will work now that magic is growing stronger by the day.

On 3/7/2024 at 7:38 PM, Aldarion said:

Yes, she will certainly look that way after she completely botched things in Astapor and Meereen...

Do you really think people will even learn or care to learn what happens there? Slaver's Bay is at the far end of the world. Mace Tyrell received a report about things there, and perhaps a handful of other lords ... but who will care about such stories now that winter has set in and pretty much anybody will be starving? Do you care about reports from the far end of the world?

[Aline de Gavrillac]

Rhae is a curse. 

[Daeron the Daring]

We do not know when Ned arrived at the Tower of Joy. He might have been there before, or just weeks after, as we have examples of women dying of birth months and 1-2 years after birth due to complications originating from it.

The reason this matters, in my opinion, is that it determines if Jon was given any name by his mother, valyrian or not.

If Lyanna survived for at least 1-2 days after giving birth, I assume he must've given a name to the baby. It would significantly improve the odds for this if they talked this trough with Rhaegar, which I guess is a 50/50, they had a lot of time on their hands. 

I personally don't buy into this "trying to give birth to the original three conquerors of Westeros" idea that Rhaegar is supposed to have had. Yes, he might have been really into the "The dragon has three heads." idea, but he named his firstborn Rhaenys. Visenya is a well remembered character, but she is infamous for her own character and that of her side of the Targaryen family. Her story, not even in relation with Aegon, was in any way romantic, so I don't know why someone would want to rekindle the memory of the original trio. On the other hand, Rhaenys and Aegon did go down in history as the king and queen who loved each other. Him naming his children after them feels nothing more than honoring the legacy of the two people all Targaryens would descend from. Who's to say he excluded Viserys from his supposed vision anyway, who was much closer in age to his own children than him.

That Lyanna would give Jon a valyrian name is no extra hardship for Eddard in my opinion, who already has to come up with a cover for the baby, regardless of what Lyanna did, and wether or not Jon is a trueborn in any absurd way. It doesn't seem to me that Lyanna discussed the question of his future once/if she dies, I feel like it wouldn't be true to their characters for either.

Overall, while I tend to think it's more likely that Jon was given a name by Rhaegar/Lyanna than not, I think this part of his story/past would remain largely unimportant in comparison to his heritage, which actually is supposed to matter.

On that note, I'd say Aemon and Jaehaerys are the most likely candidates for Jon's potential actual name. However, I think he will ultimately go down in history as Jon Snow, not as Jon Stark/Targaryen or *insert valyrian name* Targaryen, simply because his real name would become important only if he was a reigning monarch of any political entity (except if it was King-beyond-the-Wall/King of the Freefolk, which would cement the name Jon Snow). 

True, in recent years, the possibility of King Jon objectively increased, but I still find it highly unlikely.

Edited March 15 by Daeron the Daring

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

We do not know when Ned arrived at the Tower of Joy. He might have been there before, or just weeks after, as we have examples of women dying of birth months and 1-2 years after birth due to complications originating from it.

The reason this matters, in my opinion, is that it determines if Jon was given any name by his mother, valyrian or not.

If Lyanna survived for at least 1-2 days after giving birth, I assume he must've given a name to the baby. It would significantly improve the odds for this if they talked this trough with Rhaegar, which I guess is a 50/50, they had a lot of time on their hands. 

I personally don't buy into this "trying to give birth to the original three conquerors of Westeros" idea that Rhaegar is supposed to have had. Yes, he might have been really into the "The dragon has three heads." idea, but he named his firstborn Rhaenys. Visenya is a well remembered character, but she is infamous for her own character and that of her side of the Targaryen family. Her story, not even in relation with Aegon, was in any way romantic, so I don't know why someone would want to rekindle the memory of the original trio. On the other hand, Rhaenys and Aegon did go down in history as the king and queen who loved each other. Him naming his children after them feels nothing more than honoring the legacy of the two people all Targaryens would descend from. Who's to say he excluded Viserys from his supposed vision anyway, who was much closer in age to his own children than him.

That Lyanna would give Jon a valyrian name is no extra hardship for Eddard in my opinion, who already has to come up with a cover for the baby, regardless of what Lyanna did, and wether or not Jon is a trueborn in any absurd way. It doesn't seem to me that Lyanna discussed the question of his future once/if she dies, I feel like it wouldn't be true to their characters for either.

Overall, while I tend to think it's more likely that Jon was given a name by Rhaegar/Lyanna than not, I think this part of his story/past would remain largely unimportant in comparison to his heritage, which actually is supposed to matter.

On that note, I'd say Aemon and Jaehaerys are the most likely candidates for Jon's potential actual name. However, I think he will ultimately go down in history as Jon Snow, not as Jon Stark/Targaryen or *insert valyrian name* Targaryen, simply because his real name would become important only if he was a reigning monarch of any political entity (except if it was King-beyond-the-Wall/King of the Freefolk, which would cement the name Jon Snow). 

True, in recent years, the possibility of King Jon objectively increased, but I still find it highly unlikely.

The thing about "Viserys" as a name in this context is that it's not just Rhaegar who does it. The Aeg-; Vis-; Rhae- trio occurs a number of times throughout Targaryen history.

No Targaryen has, so far as we know, ever been named after their parent, and only Rhae- names seem to be used parent-to-child (but never the same variant). But otherwise, the early Targs favour that trio of names and seem to do so within a single generation where possible:

• Aegon I's children are ineligible.
• Aenys names his three eldest children Aegon, Viserys and Rhanea.
• Aegon the Uncrowned can't call his kids Aegon (not least because they're girls) but does call one daughter Rhaella, despite the mother being Rhaena. This is an anomaly.
• Jaehaerys calls his eldest son Aegon but he dies young. He then doesn't use any of the other names, perhaps to leave them clear for the following generation.
• Aemon names his daughter Rhaenys. Baelon names his first son Viserys; his third son would have been Aegon, making another trio in the same generation. (What's curious here is that Daemon is named first).
• Vis-names are unavailable for Viserys I, but he uses Rhaenyra and Aegon for two of his first three children.
• Rhaenyra can't use Rhae- names, but Daemon produces (with first Laena and then Rhaenyra) a Rhaena, Aegon and Viserys, as well as doubling up on the Vis- names with a stillborn Visenya. Again, Baela is the "anomaly", albeit she's obviously named after Daemon's father.

Now, if the derided-but-I-think-probably-correct theory is true, that the prophecy about the dragon's having three heads dated back to the time of Aegon I, was lost during the Dance, and was subsequently rediscovered by Jaehaerys II and/or Rhaegar, this is the point at which we'd expect to see that trio of name-forms fall out of favour. While "Aegon" continues to see use, it's nowhere near as regular or frequent as it had been before the Dance (especially, I imagine, since Aegon IV put a bit of a curse on it). Rhae- names are still used, but in forms never before seen (Rhaegel, Rhae). Vis- names disappear altogether. There is a general decline in use of "traditional" Targaryen names after the Dance, but the complete absence of Vis- names is noteworthy.

Until Aerys II brings it back. Now, I wonder if this was in itself partly motivated by the prophecy: after all, Rhaegar was mooted as "The Prince" and his birth was somewhat spectacular, being associated with the attempt to bring back the dragons. And Jaehaerys II himself seems to have learned about the prophecy, perhaps not in time to name his own son, but enough to pass on the knowledge to Aerys or recommend names to him. Rhaegar/Viserys is only the second name pairing from the "name trio" since the Dance, the first being "Aegon V/Rhae". But Aerys only has two children during his own lifetime and Rhaegar seems to have decided at some point that he isn't the Prince himself, so instead he looks to the next generation.

So far as we can surmise, Rhaegar's whole thing seems to be trying to produce the three heads of the dragon. That seems to be why he goes off with Lyanna in the first place. His eldest child he calls Rhaenys (in defiance of the apparent tradition of not using your own name), the first such Rhaenys since the Dance. His second is a boy, Aegon. So the third will, as someone said earlier, surely be Visenya. Now, he wasn't around for Jon's birth and his being a boy would probably have thrown him for a loop. But if Lyanna is clued into Rhaegar's plan, and sincerely believes that she is giving birth to the third head of the dragon, she would surely go for the nearest available name to Visenya, which is Viserys.

Personally, it's the only Targaryen name for Jon I think has any predictable justification for it. Sure, it might be Jaehaerys or Aemon, but why would we assume so? In-character, there seems little (or no) more reason for it than his being called Daeron or Maekar.

However, I also think that Lyanna didn't name Jon at all. If Jon is a trueborn Targaryen, and decides to adopt that identity, I think he'll have to choose his own name, in which he might well go with Aemon as a tribute to his mentor. But that would be Jon's choice, for reasons pertinent to Jon, not the choice of his parents who seem to have no reason to use that name over any other.

[Daeron the Daring]

4 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

The thing about "Viserys" as a name in this context is that it's not just Rhaegar who does it. The Aeg-; Vis-; Rhae- trio occurs a number of times throughout Targaryen history.

No Targaryen has, so far as we know, ever been named after their parent, and only Rhae- names seem to be used parent-to-child (but never the same variant). But otherwise, the early Targs favour that trio of names and seem to do so within a single generation where possible:

• Aegon I's children are ineligible.
• Aenys names his three eldest children Aegon, Viserys and Rhanea.
• Aegon the Uncrowned can't call his kids Aegon (not least because they're girls) but does call one daughter Rhaella, despite the mother being Rhaena. This is an anomaly.
• Jaehaerys calls his eldest son Aegon but he dies young. He then doesn't use any of the other names, perhaps to leave them clear for the following generation.
• Aemon names his daughter Rhaenys. Baelon names his first son Viserys; his third son would have been Aegon, making another trio in the same generation. (What's curious here is that Daemon is named first).
• Vis-names are unavailable for Viserys I, but he uses Rhaenyra and Aegon for two of his first three children.
• Rhaenyra can't use Rhae- names, but Daemon produces (with first Laena and then Rhaenyra) a Rhaena, Aegon and Viserys, as well as doubling up on the Vis- names with a stillborn Visenya. Again, Baela is the "anomaly", albeit she's obviously named after Daemon's father.

Now, if the derided-but-I-think-probably-correct theory is true, that the prophecy about the dragon's having three heads dated back to the time of Aegon I, was lost during the Dance, and was subsequently rediscovered by Jaehaerys II and/or Rhaegar, this is the point at which we'd expect to see that trio of name-forms fall out of favour. While "Aegon" continues to see use, it's nowhere near as regular or frequent as it had been before the Dance (especially, I imagine, since Aegon IV put a bit of a curse on it). Rhae- names are still used, but in forms never before seen (Rhaegel, Rhae). Vis- names disappear altogether. There is a general decline in use of "traditional" Targaryen names after the Dance, but the complete absence of Vis- names is noteworthy.

Until Aerys II brings it back. Now, I wonder if this was in itself partly motivated by the prophecy: after all, Rhaegar was mooted as "The Prince" and his birth was somewhat spectacular, being associated with the attempt to bring back the dragons. And Jaehaerys II himself seems to have learned about the prophecy, perhaps not in time to name his own son, but enough to pass on the knowledge to Aerys or recommend names to him. Rhaegar/Viserys is only the second name pairing from the "name trio" since the Dance, the first being "Aegon V/Rhae". But Aerys only has two children during his own lifetime and Rhaegar seems to have decided at some point that he isn't the Prince himself, so instead he looks to the next generation.

So far as we can surmise, Rhaegar's whole thing seems to be trying to produce the three heads of the dragon. That seems to be why he goes off with Lyanna in the first place. His eldest child he calls Rhaenys (in defiance of the apparent tradition of not using your own name), the first such Rhaenys since the Dance. His second is a boy, Aegon. So the third will, as someone said earlier, surely be Visenya. Now, he wasn't around for Jon's birth and his being a boy would probably have thrown him for a loop. But if Lyanna is clued into Rhaegar's plan, and sincerely believes that she is giving birth to the third head of the dragon, she would surely go for the nearest available name to Visenya, which is Viserys.

Personally, it's the only Targaryen name for Jon I think has any predictable justification for it. Sure, it might be Jaehaerys or Aemon, but why would we assume so? In-character, there seems little (or no) more reason for it than his being called Daeron or Maekar.

However, I also think that Lyanna didn't name Jon at all. If Jon is a trueborn Targaryen, and decides to adopt that identity, I think he'll have to choose his own name, in which he might well go with Aemon as a tribute to his mentor. But that would be Jon's choice, for reasons pertinent to Jon, not the choice of his parents who seem to have no reason to use that name over any other.

Well, Jaehaerys really is nothing but a wild guess: It would be befitting for Rhaegar to use the name, since he seemed like the guy who wants to follow the steps of his ancestors with being a great monarch. I suppose Viserys falls into that category as well, the only advantage Jaehaerys has is that it's the name of Rhaegars' grandpa.

On the other hand, we know for sure Maester Aemon and Rhaegar were exchanging letters. There is definitely ground laid down for him to honor this old relative with whom he might have developed a lot of types of relationships. It wouldn't be a far reach to say maester Aemon was at least a mentor to him, potentially a father figure. Plus, there's the reoccuring actual pattern with Aegons having Aemons as brothers.

Because the pattern you talk about simply doesn't exist. And there are a couple smaller reasons to that, and two majors: the first one is the legacy of Rhaenys, Aegon's wife he loved, and mother of all Targaryens basically. The name Visenya was only ever used a single time after the original: In Rhaenyra's case. Which makes the connection obvious: She saw a role model in how a female Targaryen should and can stand on its two feet, independently, with her being the first woman meant to sit on the Iron Throne.

On the male side, there's a major reason as to why the traditional names lost popularity as well: the appearance of Daeron, which is a cool name, otherwise it wouldn't have become the second-most used male name, losing only to Aegon, despite making its first appearance at halftime. Sure, it started out with *me* getting this name, but the reason it became popular is because Aegon III's wife, Daenaera Velaryon was a Velaryon cousins' daughter, who's name was Daeron Velaryon (son of Vaemond, btw). As a sidenote, Daeron Velaryon was likely at around a decade or even more older than Daeron the Daring, so Alicent/Viserys may have been introduced to the idea of the name by him. Anyway, Daeron I, the Young Dragon was clearly named after his Velaryon grandfather, and thus a new phenomena was born, which was naming your male child Daeron.

The legacies of Aegon III and Aegon IV also made Aegon more unpopular. The Unworthy was named by Viserys I because he really loved his brotha Aegon III, not because Aegon was trending.

The pattern is nonexistent, not because there isn't any attempt to (re)create it (besides possibly Rhaegar, who definitely named Aegon after the conqueror, and not after Aegon V, altough that could've been the sugar on top), but it's far from plausible that this idea could survive certain generations. There isn't a single Targaryen sibling trio that would qualify for it (except maybe the first 3 children of Aenys), but I'll give you that you made Viserys a third candidate for Jon's potential name for me, a close one behind Jaehaerys.

I really looked into the origins of the names and their patterns, when it comes to valyrians (Targaryens and Velaryons) at one point. I tell you all this by memory, yes it's an unhealthy level of knowledge.

For example, the name Daemon was introduced at a time when there was a Lord Daemon Velaryon still alive or not too long ago deceased, a former Hand of the King and whose grandfather was also Daemon Velaryon (Lord of the Tides during the conquest and ancestor of Targaryens via Alyssa Velaryon as well btw). But there was also a Daemion Targaryen, Lord of Dragonstone before the conquest. You factor these informations in, and there's no oddity as to why our Rouge Prince was named Daemon.

A real oddity, for example, is why the Alyssa/Alysanne names didn't stick around.

 

 

Edited March 16 by Daeron the Daring

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 2/28/2024 at 10:42 PM, Roswell said:

Rhaenys, Rhaenyra, Rhaella, Rhaegar, Rhaego.  All of them died before their time while they were still young.  Jon Snow could be a bastard son of Rhaeger and Lyanna.  Lyanna was crazy enough to dare name her bastard Rhaegar after his royal father.  Jon was killed for betraying the Night's Watch.  That puts him in the pattern of the Rhaes.  I am actually happy about his death.  But I am worried about Dany's dragon, Rhaegal. 

That does seem to predict something bad for Rhaegar’s child, whether Aegon or Jon. Though I think those meatheads are not his. 

[Aldarion]

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Not checking your numbers, but the Westerlands are far from spent. There were some losses in both Jaime's and Tywin's armies, but dispersed men can go back home (and likely did do just that). Ditto with the Lannisport army.

The military potential of House Lannister is about 65,000 men, according to some sources, and Tywin and Jaime together only marshaled 35,000 men.

You also have to consider how fucking rich Cersei Lannister is. If push comes to shove she can buy tens of thousands of sellswords, both in and outside of Westeros. And if she has to flee KL she might actually send representatives to the Disputed Lands to hire men with Lannister gold.

That is a possibility, but Cersei herself will have lost a lot of power. And if she doesn't, we see that she is growing more and more paranoid. Lannisters required Tyrell alliance to stay in power, and she will single-handedly destroy that now that Kevan is dead.

And check the numbers. Lannisters lost anywhere between 25 000 and 35 000 men in total. That is about half the Lannister strength gone.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Her personal conflict can revolve around other things. That she is, in the end, the true savior and not one of the fake ones like Stannis and Aegon, is actually quite clear by the plot.

The entire ironical point of her plot is the fact that she prepares for an invasion/conquest that is, most likely, not going to happen. At least not as an invasion to conquer, but as an invasion to save or to help save people.

If she were to come to Westeros as another pretender fighting for her own petty gains/ambitions they are not likely to defeat the Others. 

Or maybe she will start out as another pretender and end up fighting the Others. Others are central to Jon Snow's story, not necessarily to Daenerys' story.

What is central do Daenerys story is the conflict between her "fire and blood" nature and her desire to settle down and live in peace.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Dany is certainly not Henry Tudor, but Aegon is pretty much Perkin Warbeck (coming at a time when no Henry Tudor sits more or less securely on the throne).

Aegon is going to be good guy who might try his best ... but who will fail as a king. I've no clue if he is going to be a tyrant or a weakling or both ... but he will fail for this or that reason. Not necessarily to the point that he will be completely done by the time Dany shows up - depending on the kind of story George wants to tell - but a failure nonetheless.

Varys has set him up as the perfect prince and savior ... and he just isn't that, as he is not the hero of this story.

Or maybe he will not fail at all, until Daenerys comes. He may have been set up as a puppet, but he is breaking the strings.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Ah, no. He has to conclusively prove to the world and the people that he is actually Rhaegar's son ... the world and Dany don't have to disprove that claim. He claims to be a person that is officially dead for seventeen years while not even looking like a properly 18-year-old (rather like 15-16-year-old according to Tyrion).

Aegon's situation is Cersei's children reversed. Stannis and his buddies have to prove that the children Robert Baratheon raised as his own are not, in fact, his biological children, but the children don't have to prove that their legal father is their father. Because that is the status quo. The status quo regarding Aegon is that he is dead and gone. He has to make people believe that his silly fairy-tale story of benevolent eunuchs and cheesemongers and pisswater princes is true.

The only way he can hope to do that is by having success in the field. But any sign of weakness can easily reverse things. That is why Aegon was supposed to marry Daenerys and was earlier supposed to ally with Viserys III and his Dothraki. If all he has is just the word of the likes of Varys and Connington he has pretty much nothing.

And that will be his undoing, sooner or later.

The idea that some guy can just claim he is a long dead prince and thus seriously harm or damage the claim of the last genuine Targaryen who is also a kind of miracle person bringing back the extinct dragons is a pretty big stretch. Even if Aegon were genuine, there are a number of precedents where the elder line was passed over for scion of the younger, if the eldest son died. Aerys II himself named Viserys III his heir rather than Aegon, and Viserys III, in turn, named his sister Daenerys.

People who care about legal prattle in Westeros would know this ... but the dragons are a much better argument. As is the high likelihood that Aegon is a fake.

Looking like a 15-16 year old is actually an indication that he is not fake. More recent Targaryens that are not disfigured by incest or food tend to be of a pretty boy type rather than "handsome", and also relatively small. So somebody looking from the outside could easily shave off a few years. Person who said that Aegon is 15 to 16 is Tyrion, who also misestimated Jon Snow's age:

Quote

Tyrion sighed. “You are remarkably polite for a bastard, Snow. What you see is a dwarf. You
are what, twelve?”
“Fourteen,” the boy said.

He says that Jon Snow is 12 when he really is 14. So when Tyrion estimates Aegon as 15 - 16, it is nearly certain that he is really 17 - 18. It does not prove he is not fake - after all, Illyrio or somebody else could have had a son of age with Aegon - but it certainly doesn't prove that he is.

And nobody needs to prove "benevolence". Taking and sheltering pretenders to a throne was a regular practice in medieval Europe. So long as somebody had managed to get Aegon out of the King's Landing, there will have been no shortage of people willing to provide him with a shelter. If anything, Viserys' and Daenerys' situation is one that makes no sense. Any Sealord worth his salt should have jumped at the opportunity to provide them with shelter. Unless, of course, they were afraid of Westerosi military intervention - but historically, kings were more liable to pay off other kings to keep pretenders hostage than to go to war over the issue.

The only thing that actually brings Aegon's story into question is getting him out of the King's Landing in the first place. Aerys was paranoid, so it will not have been easy to do - and of course, we do have an issue of a babe whose head had been smashed against the wall, and Elia dying trying to protect it. But it is questionable if anybody knows the last factoid, or they just believe that Gregor killed her because that is what he does - and it is questionable how many people even know that it was Gregor Clegane who had killed them in the first place.

So while there is no way for Aegon to conclusively prove he is who he claims he is, there is also no way to conclusively disprove it either. And the fact that he had been living with Jon Connington and had come with him to Westeros is a good proof of Aegon's identity.

Even Kevan Lannister doubts Aegon's death:

Quote

“A feigned boy is what he has,” said Randyll Tarly. “That may be. Or not.” Kevan Lannister had been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar’s children at the foot of the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy … a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore, a few hanks of fair hair. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon, and we took him at his word. “We have these tales coming from the east as well. A second Targaryen, and one whose blood no man can question. Daenerys Stormborn.”

Aegon marrying Daenerys was supposed to remove all doubt and also ensure his legitimacy - and latter will have been the case even if there had been decisive proof of his identity. Dragons were a big symbol of legitimacy in intra-Targaryen dynastic struggles. And of course, secure him dragons' firepower.

But in the end, people will believe what they want to believe. And while Daenerys' dragons are quite a big argument, so are Dothraki - and not in her favor. Not to mention how her behavior may change in the future:

Quote

Dragons plant no trees. Remember that. Remember who you are, what you were made to be. Remember your words.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Well, yes, of course, right now no king can be 'good' in the sense that they can't make the Realm prosper. Which is pretty much the issue we talk about here. Aegon certainly might be able to win the allegiance of a considerable number of lords and knights - for the time being, at least - but that will just further the division in the Realm and prevent the existing factions from working together. He doesn't have to be 'evil' to be forced to act as a tyrant, just as Dany doesn't have to be.

And my point never is that she will be some kind of super gentle queen or anything ... I say her personal and military power will cow people into submission and/or motivate them to join her because it is better to be in the winning team than in the loser's team.

The notion that the Westerosi give a shit about butchered Ghiscari or even Essosi from the Free Cities is very low. They do not permit slavery, either, and view the merchant lords and magisters of the Free Cities with contempt, anyway.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Do you really think people will even learn or care to learn what happens there? Slaver's Bay is at the far end of the world. Mace Tyrell received a report about things there, and perhaps a handful of other lords ... but who will care about such stories now that winter has set in and pretty much anybody will be starving? Do you care about reports from the far end of the world?

If her personal and military power is based on Essosi forces, it might also scare people away from her. Especially those from Central Essos (Dothraki, Slaver's Bay armies) are unlikely to have good reputation in Westeros, while at the same time not really providing military capability to counterweight their reputation.

Westerosi will not give a shit about butchered Ghiscari or Essosi. But they will care about what such behavior may mean for them. And they will care about the company she keeps - if you look at it without looking at deeper cause and effect, Daenerys is basically collecting scum of the earth to her. Dothraki, Victarion and his Ironborn, Unsullied, former slaves, Red Priests...

None of that will inspire confidence in her as a ruler.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Beric and Cat returning didn't involve blood magic. It just happened, and, in the belief of Thoros and his followers, because the god R'hllor himself made it happen. We have no even remotely similar miracle from any of the other deities.

Old God magic flooded the Arm of Dorne, and later the Neck (Hammer of the Waters). One can also hear whispering near the Heart Trees, and Old Gods send dreams as well. And the Seven may have saved Davos.

And considering Jon Snow's theme (ice and fire), it is likely his resurrection will involve Rhllor and the Old Gods both.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

Yes, but that is not mirrored by, say, a good or at least decent group of ice priests or ice sorcerers. Sure enough, there was monstrous fire magic going on in the past in Old Valyria. But that is over for centuries. The dragons are basically just animals whose existence is no threat to anyone ... while the fire magic of the red priests is, overall, a good thing, although used in questionable manners sometimes (Melisandre's shadowbinding isn't fire magic, that is shadowbinding).

The only ice magic the books have to offer so far are the magic of the Others, and they are clearly evil ice demons who want to destroy all of humanity, perhaps all life on the planet. The Valyrian mages never wanted to that, as far as we know.

In that sense, the fire mages we see in the series are champions of life. They fight the ultimate enemy. If there is an apocalypse it will be one of ice and winter and darkness, not one of fire and summer and light.#

Ice is not totally bad in principle in the books, of course. But as a faction in the symbolic 'Song of Ice and Fire' it is clearly standing for the villains, the Others, not the good guys.

I would definitely not consider the Fire Priests as anything approaching good or benevolent. Their own magic today is quite monstruous as well - how many times has Melisandre wanted to sacrifice somebody?

Red Priests turn men on each other, create religious zealots, outright burn people, are willing to lie and manipulate, and give false prophecies and dark magic.

Chances are, both the Great Other and the Rhllor are required to cancel each other out. Great Other wins, world dies by ice. Red God wins, world dies in fire. Long Night happened when the ice grew too powerful, and Doom of Valyria happened when fire was too powerful.

The Others are a more immediate threat in Westeros, but that doesn't mean Red Priests are good.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm just saying that Aegon is a fake savior - regardless whether he is Rhaegar's son or not -, I'm not saying Dany is the only savior. The dragon has three heads. There are three people at the core of this prophecy, and Aegon is not not one of them. But, of course, as this is a really big ensemble show there will be other crucial heroes in addition to the three dragon heads as well. And perhaps Aegon might even play a small part there. I'm not running around saying he must die early.

Dany is one head, Jon Snow is the second. Third could be anyone... Aegon included.

On 3/10/2024 at 4:11 PM, Lord Varys said:

The Westerlands are not spent, Aegon has a lousy power base even with Dorne, and Euron is the most dangerous - and likely most powerful - player in the entire book series. If you don't see that, I can't help you. We are entering the magical volumes of this fantasy series now. What Mel did for Stannis in ACoK will pale compared to what spells Euron (and others) will work now that magic is growing stronger by the day.

Euron relies on magic, which means he will quite likely get himself killed. Look at what happened to Stannis: sure, he is not dead, but every time he relied on magic to solve his problems, it only got worse.

Magic in this world is not the solution, if anything, it is part of the problem. Euron may have a major role left to play, but if he does, then it will be in the North as agent of the Others.

And yes, Westerlands are seriously depleted. Not spent maybe, but definitely not a major player anymore.

[Daeron the Daring]

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

But in the end, people will believe what they want to believe. And while Daenerys' dragons are quite a big argument, so are Dothraki - and not in her favor. Not to mention how her behavior may change in the future:

Well, I'm not gonna try to convince you on wether the dothraki will cross the sea or not. I, personally, simply, hope they stay in Essos.

But to think that anyone would oppose Daenerys except those without a choice is a long shot. With Westeros' history, if there was a random ass nobody with three dragons and 3000 men, half the realm would rally behind said person. If said random person was a Targaryen, and especially one with a mildly sympathetic character, most will do. Because they did do it when it was a maniac lunatic without any dragons. Aegon will be a good demonstration of the "loyalty" the nobles of Westeros have for Targaryens.

Speaking of whom, nobles ultimately care about themselves, it's a romantic construct for us and (very importantly) them too to believe they care about the smallfolk outside materially depending on their own portion of said population, no matter how we twist it. Even when they are decent people. (And yes, this includes Daenaerys) That the lords of Westeros would care about a dothraki rampage on the continent would only be true if their own domains were also in line for the same fate. Nobody had, would or will object to looting and pillaging the enemy, because that's what the Five Kings already did. If I was one such lord, the main thing that would bother me is that I'd have no benefit from all the looting, possible land and wealth redistribution.

The people and factions she will have to fight is the ones she will want to take revenge on. The ball will be in her court because it will be a challenge on her character to show mercy and ultimately focus on the right thing, which is the coming winter. Aegon V got it right that the nobility wouldn't oppose his reforms if he had dragons.

Edited March 16 by Daeron the Daring