UK Politics VI

[The Iceman of the North]

This Isle of Man situation is amusing. Its like one of those tiny pacific islands controlled by Australia...but not.

Then there's the Channel Islands that the French haven't bothered claiming since their elite is in need of tax havens.

[Lummel]

Devon West has declared: Conservative hold.

So that is the election over until Thirsk votes towards the end of the month... :bawl:

[Chaldanya]

Devon West has declared: Conservative hold.

So that is the election over until Thirsk votes towards the end of the month...

it's alright, there'll be another one in a few weeks ;)

N

[Black Wizard]

Unfortunately the SNP managed to hold on to my constituency and increaed their majority. In the seat next door (the one I should be voting for) the SNP held on ahead of the Tories. If David Cameron actually did some campaigning in Scotland then he might have actually got some more votes. I don't recall him doing much up here at all. The Tories only needed a swing of 3% to take Angus from the SNP, so why not try harder?

[Paddy]

If they run out of ballots can't they write it down on a scrap piece of paper? A bit of discretion and common sense for the polling stations and some sort of returning officer flying squad to sort out staffing problems and you avoid a seriously embarassing contretemps.

I'd be tempted to just take the last one and run off a thousand photocopies, but any of the options you gave are better than turning people away. It shouldn't be beyond the wit of man to have to resort to that.

I seem to have been rather unclear that my hypothetical was meant just as an example and not as a strawman for any one else to have a tilt at. Sorry.

The idea I am trying to convey is that we can't think of all possible things which could happen, which is why the rules are the way they are. I can't see how keeping the polling stations open as long as possible is a practical solution because if that is the rule and some eventuality arises that means that people who turn up on time are not able vote until 10am the next morning, the returning officer will have to do that.

I don't think it's much more unfair to tell voters in such an eventuality that they cannot vote than to tell them that they can vote, but only if they stay in the polling station all night until the situation is resolved at 10am the next morning.

I also think that allowing voting stations to remain open after the media blackout is lifted diminishes the point of a media blackout.

I agree that it's unfair to just deny people who follow the rules the chance to do their part in the political process due to circumstances beyond their control, which is why I suggested the compromise I did.

[The Iceman of the North]

it's alright, there'll be another one in a few weeks ;)

I hope for your sake that you'll sort out your outdated election system before you hold another election.

[jamesM]

Meanwhile, in the council elections: http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/council/html/region_99999.stm

[Chaldanya]

I hope for your sake that you'll sort out your outdated election system before you hold another election.

If there is another election in the next few weeks it's because a governement couldn't be formed and thus no electoral reform could be passed. Which ever way you slice it, it'll take a while to get any reform in the election process.

N

[Lummel]

Meanwhile, in the council elections: http://news.bbc.co.u...egion_99999.stm

Those results are fantastic!

So while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats increase their share of the vote in the general election, it decreases in the local elections held on the same day. Just as Labour has a national decline and a local revival.

[VarysTheSpider]

Those results are fantastic!

So while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats increase their share of the vote in the general election, it decreases in the local elections held on the same day. Just as Labour has a national decline and a local revival.

It's quite typical I think. IIRC The Tories lost councils in 1979 and gained councils in 1997.

Barking result was interesting though. Thought the BNP were being quite bullish about that one.

Hmm. Just read a rumour from Will Hutton that the Tories are preparing to offer the Lib Dems a referendum on electoral form at talks this evening.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Is anyone thinking about joining the Proportional represtation protest this Saturday in Trafalgar square?

[jamesM]

I don't need too, I have already expressed my feelings here - no doubt the man has already marked my card.

n.b I would like to, but have to work.

[Werthead]

I don't think it would have been possible to produce a more frustratingly awkward election result if people had actually set out and tried.

So the Tories cannot form a majority government without the LibDems, but are not prepared to give the LibDems PR, which the LibDems have as all but a precondition. It's also unlikely that the Tories would be able to make Vince Cable chancellor, given the total diametric opposition between LibDem and Tory economic policy, which would be the only cabinet seat I imagine the LibDems would really be interested in.

However, the LibDems and Labour cannot form a majority coalition government. Even if they did join forces, the Tories could block some of their legislation with help from the smaller parties, although this wouldn't be a given.

So it looks to me like that the situation is going to be the Tories and LibDems talking for a bit before realising that's just not going to happen, and then the LibDems and Labour forming a minority coalition government based on rapid electoral reform legislation (as Brown offered) and then another election in six to twelve months. Given that the other small parties will all benefit from PR, the Tories presumably wouldn't be able to block them. Then if the current results repeated themselves under PR, Labour and the LibDems would be able to govern as a majority coalition. The fate of Brown in this and who a new PM might be (someone like Balls as an interim choice; Clegg himself is presumably ruled out by the LibDems' disappointing results, whilst if they'd increased their seats by a lot that might have been viable) would remain in question.

[Eurytus]

I don't think it would have been possible to produce a more frustratingly awkward election result if people had actually set out and tried.

So the Tories cannot form a majority government without the LibDems, but are not prepared to give the LibDems PR, which the LibDems have as all but a precondition. It's also unlikely that the Tories would be able to make Vince Cable chancellor, given the total diametric opposition between LibDem and Tory economic policy, which would be the only cabinet seat I imagine the LibDems would really be interested in.

However, the LibDems and Labour cannot form a majority coalition government. Even if they did join forces, the Tories could block some of their legislation with help from the smaller parties, although this wouldn't be a given.

So it looks to me like that the situation is going to be the Tories and LibDems talking for a bit before realising that's just not going to happen, and then the LibDems and Labour forming a minority coalition government based on rapid electoral reform legislation (as Brown offered) and then another election in six to twelve months. Given that the other small parties will all benefit from PR, the Tories presumably wouldn't be able to block them. Then if the current results repeated themselves under PR, Labour and the LibDems would be able to govern as a majority coalition. The fate of Brown in this and who a new PM might be (someone like Balls as an interim choice; Clegg himself is presumably ruled out by the LibDems' disappointing results, whilst if they'd increased their seats by a lot that might have been viable) would remain in question.

I broadly agree but I think Labour and the Liberals can form a majority coalition government given that the SNP and Plaid Cymru would certainly ally with Labour to keep the Tories from power, and there is a seat in Northern Ireland allied to the Liberals too. With Sinn Fein out of the running the rest of the parties combined come to a smaller number.

It'd be the weakest government I could imagine though.

I can certainly see the scenario you paint, the Liberals securing PR in some form and then agitating for another Election pretty soon.

Although that subsequent election would probably only result in another Lib-Labour pact, only this time with a decent majority over the rest and with the Liberals having a greater proportion of that combined entity.

[paddington]

Hmm I'll have to read up on types of PR, however wouldn't it just mean that the lib dems hold the balance of power. An i'd imagine they are closer to the labour party than Con, meaning to remove an coalition would always be an up hill struggle.

[The Iceman of the North]

Just as a thought experiment, in a PR system where England is divided in 9 constituencies while Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland is one each, with the same number of MPs, you'd get this result:

Conservatives: 239 (now 307)

Labour: 201 (now 258)

LibDems: 156 (now 57)

UKI: 14 (now 0)

SNP: 12 (now 6)

PC: 5 (now 3)

SF: 5 (now 5)

BNP: 5 (now 0)

DUP: 4 (now 8)

SDLP: 3 (now 3)

UCU: 3 (now 0)

AP: 1 (now 1)

TUV: 1 (now 0)

Greens: 0 (now 1)

Others: 1 (now 1)

I've put a randomly 3% limit, a lower limit would benefit BNP and Greens, while a 4% limit would reduce BNP and UKIP.

Of course, people would vote quite differently in this system.

[mormont]

Barking result was interesting though. Thought the BNP were being quite bullish about that one.

How can you be 'bullish' about a total wipeout? :unsure:

Hmm. Just read a rumour from Will Hutton that the Tories are preparing to offer the Lib Dems a referendum on electoral form at talks this evening.

That'll be a hard sell for Cameron: many in his own party would balk. Does he have the authority to make them agree?

I don't think it would have been possible to produce a more frustratingly awkward election result if people had actually set out and tried.

True.

So the Tories cannot form a majority government without the LibDems, but are not prepared to give the LibDems PR, which the LibDems have as all but a precondition. It's also unlikely that the Tories would be able to make Vince Cable chancellor, given the total diametric opposition between LibDem and Tory economic policy, which would be the only cabinet seat I imagine the LibDems would really be interested in.

Why do you think that?

I broadly agree but I think Labour and the Liberals can form a majority coalition government given that the SNP and Plaid Cymru would certainly ally with Labour to keep the Tories from power

I think you underestimate the level of dislike between the SNP/PC and Labour. If offered a good enough deal, the nationalists would sign up - but it's by no means certain that they will do so just to prevent a Tory government. Nor is it certain that Labour would offer enough: they really hate the nats.

[Sariel]

I don't know. A promise of a PR system and a re-election within the end of the year would surely convince any party that's not the Tories to cooperate? Half a year or so of working with Labour cannot possibly be as terrible as to sacrifice the chance of gaining a much stronger political influence for years and years to come?

[Eurytus]

I think you underestimate the level of dislike between the SNP/PC and Labour. If offered a good enough deal, the nationalists would sign up - but it's by no means certain that they will do so just to prevent a Tory government. Nor is it certain that Labour would offer enough: they really hate the nats.

That is true, but ultimately I can't see the SNP and Plaid giving any support whatsoever to the Tory coalition government, nor providing much support to the Tories in opposing a Lib-Lab coalition.

Either way its going to be a bit of a mess.

[Sophelia]

BBC website is reporting news confirming both Mormont's prediction about SNP-Lab and Eurytus's about SNP-Tory:

The SNP's Alex Salmond has ruled out taking part in any coalition with the main parties in the hung parliament.

ETA: But he has said he's willing to talk to get some policies enacted, mediated by civil servants :-P