UK Politics VI

[paddington]

Probably better for the Tories to let Lab/Lib dems to form a Government, working on the principle the Economy wont be getting better soon. An allow both the LD an labour to tarnish themselves.

I am not sure how long a coalition government can last in an economic crisis, so were probably be doing this again before to long.

[ljkeane]

Probably better for the Tories to let Lab/Lib dems to form a Government, working on the principle the Economy wont be getting better soon. An allow both the LD an labour to tarnish themselves.

In theory yes, but I think there's a reasonable chance that the Tories will descend into an extended period of internal conflict and render themselves unelectable if they don't get into government.

[HT Reddy]

Labour had that seat last time

According to wiki it's a new seat, but interesting because both the Liberal Democrat and Labour candidates were MPs in the last Parliament.

[MinDonner]

Bringing back our predictions from the last thread (those of us that foolishly dared to make any):

Min:

Labour 36%

Conservative 35%

Lib Dem 25%

Other 4%

Hereward:

Conservative 36%

Labour 28%

Lib Dem 27%

Other 9%

Usotsuki:

Conservatives: 314 seats on 35%

Liberal Democrats: 98 seats on 27%

Labour: 209 seats on 27%

Others: 39 seats on 11%.

Varys:

Tories 35%

Lib Dems 28%

Labour 27%

Others 10%

So far the actual tally is coming out at:

CON 36.1%

LAB 29.2%

LD 22.9%

Others 11.7%

Fail all round. :(

[Slick Mongoose]

Fail all round. :(

Hence why I didn't give a prediction. :P

[Usotsuki]

Ouch - I'm the Nick Clegg of the internet.

I may have failed but I am open to forming a coalition with Varys to govern this board in the interest of the posters and to spare Ran the embarrassment of having to intervene in a nakedly political process.

[mormont]

I think one thing that really will come out of this no matter what the final outcome and who deals with who is that we will get a review and possibly some reform of "actually voting"

Like if your in the queue you get to vote.

enough voting papers has to be printed to allow 100% of the electerate to vote (so we don't have to guess voter turnout)

Agreed with the queue thing - that's how we run student elections here (and amazingly, there is actually a queue at closing time most years) and I thought it was how it was done nationally too. I'm amazed that the law isn't clear on this.

On the ballot papers, though, the problem is that if you print enough ballot papers for the whole electorate and get a 55% turnout, you have tens of millions of ballot papers sitting around that need secure storage. This would greatly increase the chance of significant electoral fraud, particularly if you're trying to store them in individual ballot stations. It's a good idea in principle, but not easy to implement.

[Paddy]

Re: voter's queuing past the time the polls close,

It does seem like the law needs to change, but not just a simple one.

Issues like the out of date electoral registers or the voting forms running out shouldn't cause people to not be able to vote, but practically, the polls can't just stay open as long as it might take to sort such issues out.

My suggestion would be to extend the media coverage ban for some time after the polls close - maybe 1 hour? Anyone who is queuing at the moment the polls close gets to stay in the queue. Anyone who turns up after the queues close is turned away. If the organisation is so bad that there people still haven't been able to vote 1 hour after that, then they are regretfully turned away.

This gives breathing room for those who turn up on time, but are held up due to some organisational error at the polling station.

Then we can criticise any issues as being down to poor organisation.

The obvious burden would be that there might need to be more resources given to policing the queues from 10pm.

Edit: I started writing this before Mormont made the post above mine. Hadn't considered that about the ballot papers. Not an easy problem to solve.

[Ormond]

The remarkable thing to a clueless American like me looking at the BBC maps is how not a single seat in Scotland changed parties from the last election.

Do the Scots have some sort of gerrymandering going on that insures this result or is this just a fluke? :)

[mormont]

The remarkable thing to a clueless American like me looking at the BBC maps is how not a single seat in Scotland changed parties from the last election.

Do the Scots have some sort of gerrymandering going on that insures this result or is this just a fluke? :)

:leaving:

Actually two seats changed hands in between 2005 and 2009 in by-elections: but they went back in the actual election to their 2005 parties. Vote share shifted a bit - more votes for Labour and the SNP, fewer for the Lib Dems. (Full Scottish results here.) But yeah, not much change at all in Scotland this time.

I think the main reason is that the Tory vote is at rock bottom and shows no sign of recovering. People wanting to switch from Labour had few other choices. The SNP ran a poor campaign, Lib Dem/Labour marginals are rare (the Lib Dem vote in Scotland is heavily concentrated geographically), the Greens put up few candidates, and the Scots tend to treat the racist parties with the contempt they deserve. In addition, there is still a real feeling in Scotland that they don't want the Tories back (our memories are long, and the last experience was bitter) and the emphasis on keeping them out in the last week helped prop up the Labour vote.

[ljkeane]

Disappointing performance for the SNP I suppose. Although I have to say that despite my dislike for the SNP in general and Alex Salmond in particular he did come across quite well when he was talking to Paxman about that disappointment at four in the morning.

[BigFatCoward]

Am i the only person who thinks this is a worse result for Tories than Labour? Massive problems with the economy, worst election campaign since 83, hugely unpopular labour leader, and the tories still couldnt get close to a majority.

i'm strangely upbeat. dream scenario, Brown moves aside for someone more personable, Cameron fights on. i really beleive Cameron is a massive problem for the tories, so many people loath him and everything he stands for.

[jamesM]

I agree with pretty much everything you posted. Anything less than a majority win for the tories should be seen as a failure, given the position the Labour government had put them in prior to the election. What happens in the next week or so will determine whether the rest of the Conservative party will want Cameron to carry on as leader for the forseeable future - they have proved in the past how little patience they give to leaders who have failed.

[DJDonegal]

Looks like the Cons have torn up the South West. Libs lost big there.

[The Iceman of the North]

It's an interesting election in that Cameron, Brown and Clegg can all be labelled as losers.

[Blue Roses]

I read somewhere this morning the swing from Lab to Con has been 5.2% this time whereas in 1979 the wing for Thatcher was 5.3% which sort of illustrates the bias towards Labour in the way the seats are allocated at the moment so the Tories had a pretty uphill battle. And the Labour party are in no way close to the lunacy of the Foot years. Their policies are quite sane if not exactly scintillating.

[The Iceman of the North]

By bias, you mean former election results?

[Zoë Sumra]

Not Blue Roses, but I'd suggest she meant where the constituency boundaries have been put.

[The Iceman of the North]

Not Blue Roses, but I'd suggest she meant where the constituency boundaries have been put.

Are the boundaries more in favour of Labour today than in 1979?

[MinDonner]

I read somewhere this morning the swing from Lab to Con has been 5.2% this time whereas in 1979 the wing for Thatcher was 5.3% which sort of illustrates the bias towards Labour in the way the seats are allocated at the moment so the Tories had a pretty uphill battle. And the Labour party are in no way close to the lunacy of the Foot years. Their policies are quite sane if not exactly scintillating.

It's easy to forget just how huge Labour's majority was this time, though. The swing needed for a clear majority would have been massive.