UK Politics VI

[A wilding]

Yeah I doubt that they would lose out under PR, but then how much of their support is core voters, an how much is tactical voting. It's going to be interesting to see how much the Libs share of the vote will change under a PR system.

The results of a PR election could be very interesting.

For example, I suspect that many Labour and Tory voters don't vote for their party so much, but rather against the other party. (Look how often both parties resort to negative campaigning; the Tory line in our ward was not so much "look at us and our policies, and decide to vote for us", rather "strong government is essential, and a hung parliament would be a disaster".) In a PR system, that fear of letting the other lot in would largely evaporate.

[Werthead]

It will be interesting to see how this works.

The big sticking point after PR is the economy, which may be more fudgeable than first thought. If the LibDems want to give the economy a year in which there are no cuts and the Tories want to start cutting by £6bn immediately, there are obviously compromise positions inbetween (six months before cuts are implemented or maybe only £3bn of cuts in the first year or some combinations of the two). Vince Cable as business secretary working in concert with Osborn sounds almost workable, as well.

PR is a much bigger sticking point - according to the BBC the LibDem MPs are rather unhappy with the offer being put forward by the Tories on that front not sounding adequate - but the LibDems simultaneously probably realise that voting reform is secondary in the minds of the public to the economy, and for the sake of the country they may table PR for now (but not for too long and not without guarantees). Europe is also something that can be tabled: no further powers given to Brussels, no move to introduce the Euro but simultaneously no attempt to withdraw from the EU or bring powers back from Europe either.

Trident could be a much bigger sticking point. The LibDems wanted to scrap it, and the money saved from maintaining Trident and paying for its replacement would be money that could be poured into the deficit (and hopefully means more money saved from the public services). The Tories want to maintain and replace it, which is a huge sum of money. I'm thinking this could be a bigger problem for the LibDem rank and file than is being considered at the moment.

Interestingly it sounds like Labour's offer to the LibDems over the weekend involved Brown's resignation after a short intermediate period.

[mormont]

Wert: the one other issue that you missed is immigration. The Lib Dems will have to give up their policy of an amnesty, without doubt. They'll also probably have to give up on Trident, or accept a fudge. The difficulty will be that the Lib Dems will believe they're owed something substantial in return for giving those up, but the Tories will see it as just abandoning policies that were unpopular and unworkable anyway and so not worth much in return.

The economy is actually probably the least problematic area - there are ways to make that one look like a win to both sides. Europe, as I said, I see as more difficult to fudge. That's an issue of principle, and most Tory MPs are very Eurosceptic. Even agreeing to do nothing will annoy them severely. And whether there's domestic legislation to pass on Euro issues or not, there are Euro summits to attend and negotiations to do at every level. The government has to have a policy on Europe, and the gap between the parties looks to me unbridgeable. But maybe I'm wrong. And it wouldn't be an obstacle to an agreement, only to a coalition.

PR is the ultimate sticking point though. Without that there is no coalition. There might still be an agreement, though. 'Confidence and supply' in return for something on schools and/or tax.

[Hereward]

Trident is not a sticking point. It was a cosmetic issue in the campaign, but in reality, no decision needs to be taken in this Parliament. I see no great problem on the economy either, £6bn is neither here no there, especially when the markets are mollified by a secure government with a commitment to major cuts next year.

[Lummel]

I can imagine an easy fudge over Trident:

Conservatives: we want a modern nuclear deterent!

Liberal democrats: we don't!

Both: We have a huge budget deficit...

Fudge solution: pragmatic life cycle extention of say five years for Trident, commission to examine and report on an appropriate strategic replacement for Trident due to report in say two years time.

Result Lib Dem and Tory politicans can congratulate themselves on protecting the jobs of British Workers employed in maintaining Trident and shake hands with Devonport voters.

Europe could easily continue to be a problem for the Conservatives because we can't unilaterally take back powers from the EU. Given how long it took to reach agreement on the last round of changes to the EU any request to take back powers from the EU could at best only start a round of discussions which could potentially drag on for years. And that's presuming that the Conservatives internally can reach agreement on what they want to demand back from the EU.

Any ideas how a Conservative - Lib Dem deal would affect elections to the devolved parliaments?

[Horza]

By the sounds of it they're not going for coaliton but confidence, supply and a raft of stuff where they have common ground - the big issues of cuts and PR look insoluble.

Brown speaking now...

[VarysTheSpider]

He's going! Happy days.

[The Iceman of the North]

Brown: Labour to start negotiations with the LibDems, and Brown will step down as Labour leader in a few months.

I guess this would indicate that Sky's report of a Troy-LibDem coalition isn't exactly set in stone.

[Werthead]

I guess this would indicate that Sky's report of a Troy-LibDem coalition isn't exactly set in stone.

Are Labour going to lay siege to the coalition for ten years? :P With Mandelson as Achilles?

[Horza]

I think Mandy fancies himself more an Odysseyus. Looks like the Lib Dems are playing both sides to get the best deal possible - interesting to see how the Tories respond.

[The Iceman of the North]

With their pro-Europe policy, I'm sure Cameron wouldn't mind being called Paris. Clegg as Helen might be more difficult to swallow.

[Datepalm]

With their pro-Europe policy, I'm sure Cameron wouldn't mind being called Paris. Clegg as Helen might be more difficult to swallow.

Why not? He is rather pretty.

[Werthead]

That's set a cat amongst the pigeons. Sounds like Clegg is setting up his Plan B if he can't reach a deal with the Tories. But is the LibDems propping up a Labour government really going to go down well with the country? And is Brown remaining PM, even just for four months, really tolerable?

Whilst I probably favour a LibDem-Labour coalition, I'm not sure it can be done in a manner that is satisfactorily democratic. That said, 15 million people did vote for the LibDems and Labour whilst being aware that a LibDem-Labour coalition was a likely outcome, whilst the idea of a LibDem-Tory coalition was not widely discussed during the campaign (at least that I saw) and a lot of voters may have voted differently if they'd known such an alliance was a possibility.So I'm not too sure on that point.

[Hereward]

Whilst I probably favour a LibDem-Labour coalition, I'm not sure it can be done in a manner that is satisfactorily democratic. That said, 15 million people did vote for the LibDems and Labour whilst being aware that a LibDem-Labour coalition was a likely outcome, whilst the idea of a LibDem-Tory coalition was not widely discussed during the campaign (at least that I saw) and a lot of voters may have voted differently if they'd known such an alliance was a possibility.So I'm not too sure on that point.

You're not being consistent. You say that those 15m voted as they did knowing that a Lib-Lab coalition was a likely outcome, when no such discussion took place, whilst also saying that no discussion happened on a Tory-Lib coalition, when Clegg said on more than one occasion that he would talk with the largest party, when practically every opinion poll, and every commentator, said that would be the Conservatives.

[Horza]

He said he'd talk with them first, which he has.

[Arataniello]

I am just catching this now on various news websites. Is Brown falling on his sword and standing down as Labour leader one of the conditions of a LibDem-Lab coalition? Does his standing down then mean that the LDL coalition is a done deal?

Looks like it will be BBC World on TV tonight and nothing else!

[Horza]

On the first question: yes. On the second - not at all, his resignation is probably a) a recognition his position is untenable and B) a serious overture to the LDs at a point where many senior party figures are getting nervous about a deal with the Tories.

[Datepalm]

Why does everyone hate Brown? I'm kind of beginning to feel sympathetic because he's been such an underdog since i've started trying to follow this thing. Is it a personal issue of style/abrassiveness, or is he in particular the holder of some political positions that aren't mainstream labour?

[Hereward]

He said he'd talk with them first, which he has.

I know, but I was quibbling with Wert's assertion that people who voted LibDem knew about, and approved of, the prospect of a coalition with Labour, but did not know that there was a prospect of coalition with the Tories, when in fact he had said there would be talks with the largest party, which everyone knew was overwhelmingly likely to be the Tories, first.

Edit: I'd almost rather there was a Lib-Lab coalition. The two parties who lost seats getting together, headed by another prime minister who didn't put himself forward for that position at the election? There would be a massacre at an early poll.

[Horza]

Maybe not likely, but it was certainly within the bounds of possibility and many were skeptical Blue-Yellow could work given the Tory antipathy to PR, which is why I think the idea that LibDem voters will be appalled by a Red-Yellow coalition is stretching it a little, and partially being egged on by 'Liberals' whose main motivation is a deep and fulminating disgust of Gordon Brown... :P