UK Politics VI

[Lummel]

Since foreign policy is one of the stumbling blocks for a coalition I think it would be difficult for the Tories to make Clegg Foreign Secretary, although it does seem to be a role he would be suited for.

That's a very measured analysis. Personally I suspect that the Europhobes in the Conservative Party would choke to death on their nightcaps if they thought Clegg would be the next Foreign Secretary.

[williamjm]

The natural position for Clegg would be either Foreign Secretary or Finance Secretary, or whatever is considered the most important position behind the PM. But I'm not sure if Cameron will follow this practise.

In Britain the three most important cabinet jobs (aside from PM) are usually thought to be the Chancellor, Foreign Secretary and Home Secretary. Since they have a small portion of the seats that the Conservatives have the LibDems may well get one of those jobs. Cameron probably has a difficult decision which one to offer, the Chancellor potentially has a huge amount of power since he controls how much spending every department gets (as Brown demonstrated when he was Blair's Chancellor) so he might be reluctant to give that to Clegg or Cable. Foreign Secretary has the problem that the Conservatives and Lib Dems have widely differing views of the EU and Conservative backbenchers probably want one of their own in the job. That might leave Home Secretary, but again the Conservatives generally seem to have the impression that the Lib Dems are 'soft' on crime so again they might be reluctant (and it is the least attractive of the three jobs for Clegg since there are few opportunities to impress there and they tend to get blamed for every rise in crime or successful terrorist attack).

Finance - Chancellor - is unlikely. If Osborne (Cameron's oldest friend and political ally) doesn't get it, the most popular and logical choice is Vince Cable (another LibDem)

I saw some rumours Cameron was also considering Ken Clarke for Chancellor, which makes some sense since he is more popular than Osbourne (although not among his fellow Conservative MPs) and has five years experience of doing the job before.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I really hope the Con-LibDem alliance, if it indeed comes through, mandates NO snap election.

Even if that is the agreement in May 2010, is there a way to prevent the Tories from going back on their word if the British economy approves?

[Werthead]

According to the BBC, David Laws (LibDem) is indeed likely to get Education and Osborne (Tory) will indeed probably be Chancellor.

Even if that is the agreement in May 2010, is there a way to prevent the Tories from going back on their word if the British economy approves?

It sounds like a fixed term is one of the features of the LibDem-Tory Pact (for some reason I keep writing that as 'Nazi-Soviet Pact' :P ), and if the Tories went back on their word the coalition would crumble and the Tories get branded as a bunch of disreputable liars which wouldn't help their election prospects.

[williamjm]

Even if that is the agreement in May 2010, is there a way to prevent the Tories from going back on their word if the British economy approves?

There's nothing to stop them doing that, but openly breaking a promise might hurt them slightly at the following election and if they found themselves in a hung parliament again after the election then they'd have destroyed any chance of a new coalition.

[Lummel]

Even if that is the agreement in May 2010, is there a way to prevent the Tories from going back on their word if the British economy approves?

If the Lib Dems are unhappy they will be able to break the agreement and that potential sanction and fear of any potential public opinion backlash is all that there will be to oblige both sides to stick to their agreement, ie it won't be legally binding and enforcable through the courts.

Should the Lib Dems pull out the Conservatives could either try to keep going as a minority adminstration or chance it with a new election. There probably is as much of a risk of the agreement collasping because of revolts by Conservative or Lib Dem backbenchers as through broken coalition agreeemtns by the grandees of either party.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

There's nothing to stop them doing that, but openly breaking a promise might hurt them slightly at the following election and if they found themselves in a hung parliament again after the election then they'd have destroyed any chance of a new coalition.

True. But if the Tories are pondering calling an early election, they'd be doing so at a point when a Tory majority seems likely, so they wouldn't be worried about another hung parliament. And under those circumstances, they could likely expect to survive a modest PR hit.

[Werthead]

The BBC is reporting that Nick Clegg will get Deputy PM.

[The Iceman of the North]

Would the rank and file of the LibDems actually be satisfied if Clegg is dismissed with a Deputy PM position?

[Lummel]

True. But if the Tories are pondering calling an early election, they'd be doing so at a point when a Tory majority seems likely, so they wouldn't be worried about another hung parliament. And under those circumstances, they could likely expect to survive a modest PR hit.

That seems to be a contradictory idea, unless you believe that many more British voters would approve of a political party showing themselves to be backstabing, word breaking bastards than would want to punish them for this behaviour.

Although, of course, you might be right.

On the other hand it will take a while for the political parties to build up enough cash to be able to fight a general election again so maybe that will gain us some stability.

[Deedles]

6 Lib Dems in cabinet and Paddy Ashdown as Defense Sec. Interesting.

[Ser_not_appearing_yet]

Deputy PM is a pretty pointless role. I'd be surprised if the libdems don't end up with at least one of the big three.

[Werthead]

William Hague confirmed as Foreign Secretary and Osborne as Chancellor. Clegg still very strongly rumoured as Deputy Prime Minister.

Ashdown as Defence? Interesting. I was wondering if he was going to get Overseas Development.

[HT Reddy]

Learn to read perhaps? I didn't say I disliked him because of his jaw-dropping delivery. I said I found it irritating.

Yeh yeh okay sorry. I still think it's a silly thing to be annoyed by, but I am sorry for misrepresenting you.

[Deedles]

The Ashdown as Defense was a false flag. Sorry - it was being reported on BBC I think. I'm still surprised the Libs are bringing him back though.

[mormont]

I just realised that I voted for this government*. :stunned: How I wish I had listened to my fellow Fifer, Ken MacLeod:

The Lib Dems will cheerfully bank any tactical votes from Labour supporters as votes for them, and use the resulting diminished Labour vote as an argument for coalition with the Tories.

* to understand my shock, you must realise that I have voted in five General Elections and never before voted for the eventual government.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Mormont,

So will LibDem voters now be as vilified as Green party voters were in the U.S. after the 2000 election?:P

[Maltaran]

The BBC is reporting Osbourne as Chancellor and Hague as Foreign Secretary. If Clegg is going to get one of the big jobs, Home Secretary is the only one left.

[Werthead]

5 LibDems in the Cabinet, Clegg confirmed as Deputy PM.

Obama has done the traditional congratulatory phone call but, oddly, has immediately reinforced the special relationship. Usually new leaders get a few months of stressing good relations between the UK and US but nothing special until there's some crisis, and then they start talking about it again.

[VarysTheSpider]

To sum up a convo from what seems a very long time ago...

Fairly weak constraint. The Clegg formula was after all "the right to seek to form a government", a single meeting suffices.

Too short, IMO.

I am happy, relieved and optimistic about this. And very curious to see how it works in practice, we're so accustomed to parties fighting each other.

But what's happened to Gove? :(