aDwD - Only Five Chapters To Go?

[Lady Cheesevillage]

It's kind of sad, I've seen a lot of people translate "George wants to finish it by the end of the year / we're hoping we'll have it by Christma" to mean, "George _will_ finish / we _will_ have it". If he fails to do so, these will be the same people who then claim that GRRM "blew his latest deadline."

I'm totally guilty of the former because it makes me happy today. It gives me hope. It's a bright spot in my life. It gets me excited. But I've never done the latter and don't expect to start if, after the first of the year, this turns out to have been wishful thinking.

[Ran]

Fair enough. :) I should have said "some of these people" rather than implying they all would.

[mormont]

Rock: no, I wasn't addressing you. However, a large part of the point remains relevant: to wit, the idea that the trouble up to now has been insufficient pressure on GRRM, and that now the HBO series has given him the motivation to finish. That's a suggestion with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

[Weird Sister]

I'm new to the board and this is so perfect for my first post!

I've pre-ordered Dance with Dragons years ago, and I've got a whole collection of e-mails telling me how Amazon is sorry but they can't deliver. And now, finally a whiff of spring! I hope it won't be a false one!

[Rockroi]

Rock: no, I wasn't addressing you. However, a large part of the point remains relevant: to wit, the idea that the trouble up to now has been insufficient pressure on GRRM, and that now the HBO series has given him the motivation to finish. That's a suggestion with no evidence whatsoever to back it up.

No evidence whatsoever? Really? Suffice to say, the "motivation issue" has been a recurring issue for, uh, years. And this new tid-bit is simple: the series was green-lit and Martin is now "five chapters" from completion; the new book could be done by X-Mas; in stores by March; series starts in July. Its not exactly "CSI: Winterfell" but I can connect those dots pretty easily. You can say that that proves nothing, and it doesn't if we were in court. But its pretty strong circumstantial evidence that shows otherwise.

Also factor in that we are all pretty impressed with Martin's acumen when it comes to marketing his product (go to his web page any time and more often than not you will find all sorts of different ways you can purchase ASoIaF materials). Further, factor in that this guy knows TV; he used to write for an extremely well-received series and keeps close tabs on the industry. I think its very possible that all of these points joined here, right at the even of the series starting and that Martin could EASILY have been motivated by the financial incentive that potentially awaits.

And I am 100% fine with that. I get a book finished within 5.5 years of the last one; I get the series, I get the continuation of this magnificent adventure. And my favorite fantasy author gets what he deserves: praise, a wider audience, and financial compensation. Talk to me all you want about artistic honesty or creative freedom. But when push comes to shove, as it invariably does, you want something done? Wave some money at it. That impetus is really hard to deny.

But I am sure some will try.

[OhDanyBoy]

And this new tid-bit is simple: the series was green-lit and Martin is now "five chapters" from completion; the new book could be done by X-Mas; in stores by March; series starts in July. Its not exactly "CSI: Winterfell" but I can connect those dots pretty easily.

Just one little thing - I'm pretty sure the series is airing in March (or April at the latest, which is when it is airing in the UK).

[mormont]

No evidence whatsoever? Really?

Yes, really.

I could stop the reply here, actually. Because that's just, y'know, the facts. The reality is that we know GRRM has been working constantly on the book all along. The reality is that we know the problems with the book were to do with creativity, not productivity. The reality is we know that GRRM has been under enormous, constant pressure since way before the series was announced and has said so on multiple occasions. The reality is that this news comes much too late to have been the result of pressure from HBO, and fits exactly with the simple timeline: he's been working on the book all along and is now nearing the end.

'Circumstantial evidence'? What you've outlined is not even that. It's scraps of assumption built on foundations of guesses and bolstered with random assertions. It would be laughed out of a tabloid newspaper office, let alone court.

Talk to me all you want about artistic honesty or creative freedom. But when push comes to shove, as it invariably does, you want something done? Wave some money at it. That impetus is really hard to deny.

No, it's actually very easy. The financially smart thing to do was persist with the five-year gap, release AFFC two years earlier, release ADWD two years after that, and indeed finish the entire series by now. A man with 'acumen' would have done that: accepted the creative compromise, caved in to the pressure for more releases, and raked in the money for books he considered second-rate for the last decade.

[Rockroi]

Yes, really.

I could stop the reply here, actually. Because that's just, y'know, the facts. The reality is that we know GRRM has been working constantly on the book all along.

Your use of the word "constantly" defies the actual definition of the word. He has done many things, but work on the book "constantly" was not one of them. Has he worked hard? Yes. Has he done much? Yes. But constantly? Oh please. As I have stated time and time again, I begrudge the man NOTHING; if he wants to spend his time writing some and watching NFL games some and going to convention some, and working on the HBO series some all the more power to him; he has EARNED that ability and power to chose what he does with his time. I have NEVER stated otherwise. George RR Martin is not my bitch and I never implied he was.

But now, after 5.5 years, please spare me the thought that he has worked "constantly" on the book.

The reality is that we know the problems with the book were to do with creativity, not productivity.

How do we know this? Because GRRM tells us? This is not a "reality" its a thought, more like a wish. I think that after 5.5 years we can all make many assumptions on the "productivity," and feel pretty assured that our issue was actually there and not on "creativity." Were there SOME problems with creativity? Sure, how could there not be? But by that same token, we can all pretty much understand that there were also problems with productivity. How could there not be?

The reality is that this news comes much too late to have been the result of pressure from HBO, and fits exactly with the simple timeline: he's been working on the book all along and is now nearing the end.

Once, again, I must reiterate - I never said ANY of this was the result of pressure from HBO; I said it makes the most sense financially for GRRM. Why must you conflate the two?

'Circumstantial evidence'? What you've outlined is not even that. It's scraps of assumption built on foundations of guesses and bolstered with random assertions. It would be laughed out of a tabloid newspaper office, let alone court.

No, not at all actually. Its taking the facts as we know them and coming to conclusions based upon how the facts peter out. We have to look at what we have available to us. Like I said, in court, its not the best tool, but here its pretty clear, but YMMV.

No, it's actually very easy. The financially smart thing to do was persist with the five-year gap, release AFFC two years earlier, release ADWD two years after that, and indeed finish the entire series by now. A man with 'acumen' would have done that: accepted the creative compromise, caved in to the pressure for more releases, and raked in the money for books he considered second-rate for the last decade.

No. Martin was actively working on the books, ADwD specifically, for two years or so and he was hitting some walls; a few years ago, the idea of finally selling the series to HBO comes up; that process TAKES A LONG TIME! But the series became a real possibility two years ago or so. Martin then put a portion of his energies there for a variety of reasons, most notably that he loves TV, loves his series making it to TV, that he enjoys that epic-ness of his story, that he also knows that he can make a fortune there as his audience will grow. He starts the trajectory for the HBO series, and the work on the books doesn't "suffer" but it is caught up in a larger idea: bringing the whole series to a much larger audience. Slowly, things develop very nicely, and everything works out so that we now have a HBO series; all signs, at all times, pointed to the series getting green-lit. Book takes even longer. Finally, series pilot: a hit, book takes even longer, series now in production, Martin VERY involved in the series (as I hoped he would be), book slower and slower...

... series release date set for April (really?), book could be released as early as March...

Really, I am baffled that this is hard to figure out.

Just want to reiterate two things:

1). I am 100% fine with this; have said that many times. Martin has a life, as he stated many times, and "so should you" (his words). Martin deserves- like all people do -the freedom to do what he wants with his time and resources.

2). I always wanted the HBO series, it was just natural that the series would cause a lag on the books (unclear why others are unclear on this). Series release date coinciding with HBO release date: wider audience, more acclaim, more fans, more attention, more money for my favorite sci-fi author. Its. All. Good.

[Padraig]

Your use of the word "constantly" defies the actual definition of the word. He has done many things, but work on the book "constantly" was not one of them. Has he worked hard? Yes. Has he done much? Yes. But constantly? Oh please.

*sigh* GRRM is still not working constantly on aDwD based on your definition.

But by that same token, we can all pretty much understand that there were also problems with productivity. How could there not be?

As in, because of creative problems he wasn't productive?

GRRM obviously wants to finish asap. My problem with your initial post was that it is very likely that the book will be released after the TV series. And furthermore, I don't think many people are going to do a lot of research of aSoIaF after watching the TV series. They'll go to the bookshop and see 4 books on sale and think that is a huge number of books.

No. Martin was actively working on the books, ADwD specifically, for two years or so and he was hitting some walls; a few years ago, the idea of finally selling the series to HBO comes up; that process TAKES A LONG TIME! But the series became a real possibility two years ago or so. Martin then put a portion of his energies there for a variety of reasons, most notably that he loves TV, loves his series making it to TV, that he enjoys that epic-ness of his story, that he also knows that he can make a fortune there as his audience will grow. He starts the trajectory for the HBO series, and the work on the books doesn't "suffer" but it is caught up in a larger idea: bringing the whole series to a much larger audience. Slowly, things develop very nicely, and everything works out so that we now have a HBO series; all signs, at all times, pointed to the series getting green-lit. Book takes even longer. Finally, series pilot: a hit, book takes even longer, series now in production, Martin VERY involved in the series (as I hoped he would be), book slower and slower...

Soooo? I think you are suggesting something very meaningful there but it merely seems to be very long rambling sentences.

If the series is coming out in March then ideally, GRRM should already be finished to give his editors the standard 6 months to publish it. Everything else is just madness.

And he is very involved in the TV series? How do you define that?

[Ran]

George really isn't very involved, as such. They asked his opinions on casting, and he wrote an episode, and that's largely it. Day-to-day and overall, it's really all David & Dan. As writer of episode VIII (so far they're just numbering them with roman numerals, not sure if that's how they'll air or if they're placeholders for titles), he'll be over in Ireland to watch that and I guess consult on any line changes they need to make, which I gather is fairly typical (at least in film, maybe not so much television).

But yeah, anyways, he is very involved by the standard of how most writers are involved in adaptions of their work. But he's not much involved compared to the level of involvement of the crew proper, and the executive producers. David and Dan have, as far as I can tell, been overseas for the filming for almost the entire time of it so far, just to give a comparison point.

[alguien]

I'm trying to figure out what would be realistic if he handed the manuscript over to his editors at the end of the year.

Its huge. And you have the whole wrangling with your editor over the substantive stuff. 1-3 months.

Then you have to have copyediting. 1-3 months, depending on how accurate they want to be and what level of typos are acceptable. You can always fix in reprint. Many Discworld books have this approach, I've noticed.

Layout. 1-2 months.

Proofreading. 1-2 months.

Printing. 1-2 months.

Obviously, this is a top priority for his publishers, so they'll be hiring the best and fastest people in the business and be able to push them and the printers. On the other hand, its a frakkin' huge book.

I'll be curious to see what a release date looks like. 6 months is doable, but pretty tight.

[Ran]

If they prioritize, a publisher can get a book out in 2 months, from the time of the hand-in of the manuscript to the time it's on the shelves. They really can do it, it's just a very big thing to do. But then, ADwD is a very big thing, a guaranteed NYT bestseller with a great deal of anticipation behind it.

And from what we've been told, George has been sending completed chapters to the editors, so the book is at least partially edited at this stage.

[alguien]

If they prioritize, a publisher can get a book out in 2 months, from the time of the hand-in of the manuscript to the time it's on the shelves. They really can do it, it's just a very big thing to do. But then, ADwD is a very big thing, a guaranteed NYT bestseller with a great deal of anticipation behind it.

And from what we've been told, George has been sending completed chapters to the editors, so the book is at least partially edited at this stage .

Makes sense, if some chapters (or perhaps a majority) have been already edited (and poured and copy edited) piecemeal. I'm sure they already have the interior design template set and the cover. That said, they will still have to proofread the book as a whole and such, but from what your saying, it sounds like a lot of the work may have been done.

If that's the case, two months is a possibility. I can't imagine the kind of money you would have to spend, but it is a possibility.

[mormont]

Your use of the word "constantly" defies the actual definition of the word.

No, it fits it exactly. He has not stopped working at any point. He's done other things as well, but never at any point has there been a time when was not working on ADWD as a project.

How do we know this? Because GRRM tells us?

And because there is no evidence to the contrary and much to support it, yes. If someone tells you something, and there is no reason not to believe them, and others in the know (e.g. GRRM's editor) corroborate them, and common sense tells you it makes sense (because nobody has more interest in completing the book than GRRM, artistically and financially): why wouldn't you believe them? Because you like your assumptions better, is the only reason I can think of.

Once, again, I must reiterate - I never said ANY of this was the result of pressure from HBO; I said it makes the most sense financially for GRRM. Why must you conflate the two?

It's your assertion that the existence of the series provided motivation that was lacking.

No, not at all actually. Its taking the facts as we know them and coming to conclusions based upon how the facts peter out. We have to look at what we have available to us.

You haven't cited a single fact in support of your theory: only assumptions, assertions and guesses.

Really, I am baffled that this is hard to figure out.

Perhaps if you weren't making up your own account of events to suit your preferred answer? Generating the facts from the conclusion is often an error, I find.

Basically, your position is that GRRM was indifferent to (or at least unmotivated by) the royalties a book that will sell hundreds of thousands of copies would generate, but suddenly became wildly motivated by the extra royalties the extra books sold by the series would generate. Can you not see the problem there?

Regardless, I'm off to Ireland tomorrow for a few days, so bye for now. ;)

[Chanur]

Perhaps if you weren't making up your own account of events to suit your preferred answer? Generating the facts from the conclusion is often an error, I find.

Nothing can really dismiss the fact it took him 5.5 years to write a book, that is assuming it really will be done by the end of the year, which is very much still a maybe. Perhaps the last 5 chapters are the knot and it will take another year to complete them. It does not scream motivated to me, but that is just my opinion.

[Werthead]

Makes sense, if some chapters (or perhaps a majority) have been already edited (and poured and copy edited) piecemeal. I'm sure they already have the interior design template set and the cover. That said, they will still have to proofread the book as a whole and such, but from what your saying, it sounds like a lot of the work may have been done.

If that's the case, two months is a possibility. I can't imagine the kind of money you would have to spend, but it is a possibility.

A Storm of Swords was on the shelves just under three months after GRRM finished it. He delivered it in late April 2000 and it was on the shelves in the UK in late July, which is an insane turnaround, especially considering that the series was at a mere fraction of its current popularity at this time. AFFC took longer (five months), which may be down to the extra editing the book needed after GRRM removed the ADWD chapters he had for it and had to do some minor rewriting to accomodate that.

In the case of ADWD, the American and British publishers have both committed to getting the books on the shelves ASAP after delivery. The Americans have in fact mentioned the three-month turnaround time several times, and Voyager said (in response to my query) that they would try to match ASoS's turnaround but it depends on their other commitments. Also, in the specific case of ADWD, the new maps and the appendices are already complete and all of the completed chapters (making up over 90% of the book) have been typeset already. That will reduce the final turn-around time of the finished MS to a minimum.

It does not scream motivated to me, but that is just my opinion.

This is where the different 'sides' cannot seem to reconcile. Deleting 500 manuscript pages because they are not working and starting over, despite knowing you are going to get criticised for it since you had previously announced that those 500 pages will help you deliver the book faster, suggests a rather high level of motivation. The motivation is simply making the book as good as possible as opposed to getting the book out ASAP no matter its quality.

[Padraig]

Nothing can really dismiss the fact it took him 5.5 years to write a book, that is assuming it really will be done by the end of the year, which is very much still a maybe. Perhaps the last 5 chapters are the knot and it will take another year to complete them. It does not scream motivated to me, but that is just my opinion.

*sigh*

It really depends doesn't it?

GRRM is motivated to produce the best book he possibly can. And while 5.5 years is a very long time, isn't it possible that it can actually take 5.5 years for GRRM to write the best book he possibly can.

Is that really such a complicated idea? That's what GRRM has suggested in all his posts. It seems easiest to assume that it is true.

If they prioritize, a publisher can get a book out in 2 months, from the time of the hand-in of the manuscript to the time it's on the shelves.

Just to add to that though. People have seemingly inferred that GRRM is delaying the book so that it is released in sync with the series. (I think the idea is stupid for a number of reasons but i'll just mention one). While it can theoretically be done still, do these people think he is not just making his readers wait, he is also seriously discommoding his publishers? Because they would prefer to have the book a lot earlier than 2 months before publication date.

[Jonias Snow]

I think they were talking about Jonias's post.

This is a website concerning the novelization of a fiction/fantasy series, so wouldn't that make my scenario a fictional representation of a fictitous meeting over a fictional series about a fantasy novel.

Any scenario representative of some hopethetical situation by myself should be considered as such and taken within itself as so much fiction.

[alguien]

Also, in the specific case of ADWD, the new maps and the appendices are already complete and all of the completed chapters (making up over 90% of the book) have been typeset already. That will reduce the final turn-around time of the finished MS to a minimum.

As a Production Manager, its always nice to hear that 90% of the book has been laid out already. :)

Man, what I wouldn't give to be a part of THAT proofreading process. Though I'd probably do a terrible job, and get lost in reading instead of looking for errors.

[Lady Cheesevillage]

hopethetical

Typo or Freudian slip? :rofl: