The NFL Thread 10

[Jaxom 1974]

Tebow's a bit tougher. There's question whether Denver brings in a new coach contingent that he works on developing Tebow. But especially if it's a big name - can you really hamstring him that way? That's Jerry Jones/Daniel Snyderesque you will play Roy Williams/Jeff George kinda bull that usually backfires.

So if the new coach believes Tebow's not the answer and Luck's sitting there (assuming he comes out) and he is then Tebow gets traded, right? Hell there are folks here more convinced of Cam Newton than Tebow.

Tebow obviously gets the last two starts though. Wonder how he feels about the audition for the future coach (whomever that is) and possibly his own NFL career? If he tanks the last two weeks, does that give a bigger name coach the ammunition to go into any potential interview with the ability to condition his hire by removing Tebow from the equation? Or does a Tim Tebow Two Week Tank Job cost Denver the shot at any kind of "name" coach...?

[arrowfan]

OK, ESPN just explained the Pack's situation. They are eliminated if they lose to the Giants. They make the playoffs for sure if they win both games, and if they beat the Giants but lose to the Bears then I think it depends on what else happens. Rodgers has been cleared too. Both games are in Lambeau. Playoffs are underway.

Yup. Pack is in control of its own destiny so that's good. Two tough teams but both games at home and Rodgers at QB.

If they beat the Giants but lose to the Bears, and go to 9-7....

they will need:

1) Giants also lose last game vs Redksins and drop to 9-7 (tie break goes to head-to-head winner, so Pack goes)

And

2) Bucs: at least lose to N.O. (conference game)going to 9-7 In this case the tie-break would go to the Pack based on strength of schedule and conference record.

[Bronn Stone]

Folks are saying he's the best QB prospect since John Elway - unlike Matt Leinart or Aaron Rodgers short of a catastrophic injury, nothing's changing that. Go back to Stanford for your senior year and be John Elway.

Really??!!??

Haven't heard that. No way he's a better prospect than Peyton IMO. He's very good. And I'd rank him third. But not ahead of Manning.

He should have a senior year like Elway did. Going 5-6 and not making it to a bowl game because you got beat by "The Play". :P

[Jaime L]

Tebow obviously gets the last two starts though. Wonder how he feels about the audition for the future coach (whomever that is) and possibly his own NFL career?

Definitely sets him back to square one where the one coach who believed in him so much, he traded up to get him, is gone and now he's got to re-audition as though he is getting drafted again. He wasn't even supposed to play this year - no-one thought he was ready. And if you watched him last week you can definitely tell they completely pared down the playbook and only let him throw it 16 times in a game where they needed to come back.

He was responsible for two big TDs but both were kinda fluky plays. Let's see if he can do it again. Good news is he gets to go against Houston's defense this week.

If he tanks the last two weeks, does that give a bigger name coach the ammunition to go into any potential interview with the ability to condition his hire by removing Tebow from the equation?

I think so.

Or does a Tim Tebow Two Week Tank Job cost Denver the shot at any kind of "name" coach...?

Think what may cost them a name coach more than anything is that Denver is looking like a pretty big rebuilding job with or without Tebow. Even if all the young offensive guys show promise, this team needs a talent infusion at just about every position on defense. Need to find a coach who's okay with that.

What Denver does have is a good owner who will spend, a passionate fanbase and now low expectations. Anything's gonna look like gravy after this year. Wouldn't rule out any of the name coaches.

[Jaxom 1974]

What Denver does have is a good owner who will spend, a passionate fanbase and now low expectations. Anything's gonna look like gravy after this year. Wouldn't rule out any of the name coaches.

I don't know a lot about the owner. The patriarch for the family that owns the team is failing some though, I thought I heard.

Otherwise this is the same ownership that brought in a coach like McDaniel and let him gut the team of any talent and draft Tim Tebow in the first round. Is that really a glowing endorsment for a bigger name coach though?

[Jaime L]

Really??!!??

Haven't heard that. No way he's a better prospect than Peyton IMO. He's very good. And I'd rank him third. But not ahead of Manning.

Manning almost wasn't the first QB taken in his draft. As I remember there were concerns about having "happy feet" and never seeming able to win the big game (he's no Tee Martin after all). As Zadok demonstrates somehow that belief still persists.

I mean, I'm with you: watching Manning in college I absolutely believed he'd be great in the pros. He was the football equivalent of Tim Duncan - go ahead and book 10 years of winning. By contrast I haven't seen Luck play at all so I'm just repeated what I've heard. Apparently he has all the measuarables that scouts drool over which is why Elway gets trotted out. Can't recall if he's able to throw a football 50 yards from his knees which I believe is the ultimate determinant of NFL success.

Whether Luck actually has the intangibles that actually matter in the NFL, I don't know. Maybe Bluray has an opinion.

I don't know a lot about the owner. The patriarch for the family that owns the team is failing some though, I thought I heard.

Otherwise this is the same ownership that brought in a coach like McDaniel and let him gut the team of any talent and draft Tim Tebow in the first round. Is that really a glowing endorsment for a bigger name coach though?

McDaniels is definitely gonna end up being the black mark on Bowlen's resume - maybe not so much hiring him, but giving a 31 year old complete control and especially especially giving him say over personnel decisions.

But outside of that Bowlen is a rare thing: an owner actually beloved in his community. This had been a winning franchise for the better part of 30 years..one that's been to 6 Super Bowls. Lot of people thank him for that.

[Bronn Stone]

Manning almost wasn't the first QB taken in his draft.

That was overstated at the time. I don't think it was ever really close. Because damnit, I REALLY wanted it to happen. I thought Leaf would be good as well, but I was pretty sure back then that Peyton would eventually be an HOF QB.

[awesome possum]

I never really paid attention to Notre Dame besides knowing they kind of sucked/were average during the Weiss/Clausen years, so I can't help but wonder: how did Jimmy Clausen end up drafted by an NFL team that actually planned on him to start one day in the first place? Did he really light the college football world on fire? As far as I recall, the biggest news story about him in college had nothing to do with his football prowess and everything to do with getting his picture taken while being underage and drinking at a frat party.

[Rhom]

I heard McShay this morning talking about Luck going back to school and comparing to Jake Locker. He said that if Luck decides to stay, he thinks Locker may still be the first QB taken. :stunned:

Let me get this straight... Is this the same Jake Locker who lead his Washington team to a winless season two years ago? Is this the same Jake Locker who took his Huskies team to a 6-6 record in a conference with only 3 teams that were more than one game over .500? :thumbsdown: Thought so.

I never really paid attention to Notre Dame besides knowing they kind of sucked/were average during the Weiss/Clausen years, so I can't help but wonder: how did Jimmy Clausen end up drafted by an NFL team that actually planned on him to start one day in the first place? Did he really light the college football world on fire? As far as I recall, the biggest news story about him in college had nothing to do with his football prowess and everything to do with getting his picture taken while being underage and drinking at a frat party.

Nah... the biggest story was him getting sucker punched in the eye by a fan after a loss. Either way it boils down to him being a punk.

The biggest reason he got a shot at the NFL had to be his high school credentials, he was a hotshot going into Notre Dame and wasn't awful on the field while he was there. Which apparently translates into being picked by the Panthers. (Third round was it?)

[Jaime L]

Actually, he did rip it up his junior year. I want to say that he had some obscenely good TD/INT ratio, like 28-2 or something. He led a number of late-game drives as well. I don't know how much this really matters, but there was definitely some chatter along the lines of "He was coached by Weiss who runs a pro-style system that is great preparation for the next level."

That's why this season has been especially damning. He was supposed to be the most plug and play of any QB prospect in last year's draft - that was the appeal of Clausen to make up for not having a particualrly high upside or demonstration of the kind of intangibles teams look for. But both Bradford and McCoy have both looked far more ready than Clausen. Hell, so has Tebow.

The biggest reason he got a shot at the NFL had to be his high school credentials, he was a hotshot going into Notre Dame and wasn't awful on the field while he was there. Which apparently translates into being picked by the Panthers. (Third round was it?)

Second round. And people were talking about how it was a deal compared to where they thought he would go. He's only a deal as he emerges as a legit QB of the future, otherwise they just blew a 2nd rounder for a guy that Steve Smith is more likely than not going to end up punching in the face.

[Trebla]

Second round. And people were talking about how it was a deal compared to where they thought he would go. He's only a deal as he emerges as a legit QB of the future, otherwise they just blew a 2nd rounder for a guy that Steve Smith is more likely than not going to end up punching in the face.

lol...when he was drafted I texted my best friend, who is a huge Domer fan, and told him I'd bet Steve Smith punched Clausen in the face before the end of the season. :lol:

If I wasn't at work,I'd post some of the classic Clausen pics: hair spiked up like Jersey Shore while riding in a Hummer limo to make an announcement at the College Football Hall of Famethat he was going to ND. He and his 2 brothers posing for pictures in Speedos

[Rhom]

lol...when he was drafted I texted my best friend, who is a huge Domer fan, and told him I'd bet Steve Smith punched Clausen in the face before the end of the season. :lol:

If I wasn't at work,I'd post some of the classic Clausen pics: hair spiked up like Jersey Shore while riding in a Hummer limo to make an announcement at the College Football Hall of Famethat he was going to ND. He and his 2 brothers posing for pictures in Speedos

Everything about the kid screams douchebag doesn't it?

[Jaime L]

Everything about the kid screams douchebag doesn't it?

Just carrying on the tradition.

[Darkostar]

Carolina will get Luck if he's available. Teams don't always draft for need. AP was available to the Vikes when he shouldn't have been, and we made a move for him instead of looking for a QB, which was a solid move (of course, then we decided to not go for a decent QB from there on out, settling on Favre again. In some parallel universe, we have AP and a decent QB, and are champs. I am also dating Shannon Woodward.)

[Kalbear]

If Carolina gets the first pick they'll either trade it to another team for Luck or use it for Luck themselves. Clausen wasn't a high pick last year, and he's not panned out like they wanted.

I don't see Denver going after Luck (whoever the coach is) but Cinci certainly could. Detroit is set as far as they're concerned, Buffalo seems mostly happy. Arizona would love him but I just don't see him going 5th.

[TheBigTEA]

Just to clarify, Locker was lost for the season around game four or five the year that they went winless. I don't think they would have won many games with him, but they probably would have one a few, and they would almost certainly not lost in double OT to one of the worst Wazzu teams ever. But you make a strong overall point. How many top prospect QB's have accomplished so little on the field? He had a great final drive against USC last year, but USC turned out to be way overrated. He had a really strong game @ USC this year. That's about it.

He does have a very interesting bowl game though. He played absolutely terrible at home against Nebraska this year, and he's getting a rematch in his bowl game.

If I recall correctly Jay Cutler's team at Vandy was not all that great either. Even his stats where never all THAT great.

[Darkostar]

If I recall correctly Jay Cutler's team at Vandy was not all that great either. Even his stats where never all THAT great.

And now he's making a professional career of not being great!

[Kalbear]

You recall incorrectly; Cutler had a 60% passing rate, threw for 3000 yards, 21 TDs and 9 ints. His team wasn't great, but his stats and the record (for Vanderbilt) was tremendously better than anyone had been before. His graduation year he led the SEC in total offense.

By comparison Locker's never had above a 55% completion rate, never thrown for 3000 yards, and has significantly more interceptions and fumbles. He also has had a significantly worse injury history; Cutler wasn't hurt at Vandy to any significance.

[arrowfan]

Just carrying on the tradition.

soccer practice?

[Jaime L]

soccer practice?

I think that's what they call it.

...

FO confirming what everyone but Todd Haley can see:

And today, he's hit another milestone: According to DYAR, Charles is the best running back in football this season. While DVOA has suggested that he's the best per-play back in the NFL for a fair amount of the season, his performance against the Rams pushed him ahead of Arian Foster as the overall leader in rushing DYAR.

He won't be hitting any bonuses for finishing in that spot, but you don't need advanced metrics to realize what a great season he's having. Charles is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry, something that no other back has done with 200 or more carries in a season. Barry Sanders? Eric Dickerson? Adrian Peterson? Charles is doing more on a per-carry basis than any of them ever did, even in their best year. His 36.0% DVOA also would rank as the best performance by a back in a single season since 1993, the beginning of the DVOA Era.

The only reason Charles doesn't get recognition as the league's best back, of course, is Todd Haley. Although Haley deserves credit for assisting in the turnaround of Kansas City football over the past year and a half, his refusal to unleash Charles upon the league is mind-boggling. A look at the numbers makes comparisons between him and teammate Thomas Jones laughable. It's very clear that the Chiefs need to stop fooling around and give Charles the bulk of the workload in Kansas City -- now.

...

Of course, nobody doubts that Charles is the more explosive back. He has nine carries of 20 yards or more, while Jones has just three. Unlike some boom-and-bust backs, though, consistency isn't an issue for Charles. Our Success Rate metric measures how effective players are at keeping the team "on schedule" towards a new set of downs; by that measure, 59 percent of Charles's runs have been successful, the second-best rate in the league. Only Chris Ivory has been better. Jones is in 18th place among qualifying backs, at 48 percent. Charles is also the more productive receiver.

The only thing that stands out as an obvious reason to keep Jones in the fold is durability; Jones has been a sturdy back throughout his entire career, while Charles really only spent half of last season as the primary back for his team. You can make the anecdotal case that Charles benefits from the frequent breathers he gets, but there's also the anecdotal stories about running backs "getting into rhythms" with regular work. Either way, even if Charles lost ten percent of his value with an increase in his workload, he would still be a far better option than Jones has been this year. Charles deserves the plaudits he's received for a great season, but he deserves better: Todd Haley's decision to limit his workload is keeping Charles from being recognized as an MVP candidate.

Amen brother.