2011 NFL Regular Season - Thread 4

[Rhom]

All? The 9ers are 3 games above .500. They put up 48. I'm afraid to pinch myself since it might mean I'd wake up. Or it means the end of the world.

I remember my exchange in the last thread about getting Sunday Ticket and being able to watch the Niners all season... there were a few comments about frustration and pain... but so far (with the exception of the Dallas travesty during my son's first birthday party) its been all I could have hoped for and more. At this point, it would be stunning to me if they don't win the NFC West handily.

[Gold Storm]

Wow, I saw that Seattle's win yesterday destroyed a lot on NFL survivor leagues. In Yahoo, 70% of the picks were for the Giants. I read on other boards that their work or local leagues are down to a few.

[Maithanet]

A question for you guys who watch this sport way more regularly than I do and are much more informed than I am about the game – are there more missed tackles this season than normal?

I don’t know if it was just the Eagles in particular, but...

I’m not so much talking about ‘misses’ on the line of scrimmage, where a running back blows past a linebacker’s arm because the LB was deceived or blocked well enough that he never got into a good position to make the hit. More about guys getting round the edge and getting past covering LBs who could make the tackle, or beating safeties and corners in one-on-one situations. Usually, in a one-on-one, you expect the defensive back to make the tackle.

The Eagles have had a lot of trouble with missed tackles this year, and the Buffalo game was really bad. In general, I do think that missed tackles may be becoming a bigger issue, but I would attribute that to more teams employing big receivers at Tight End and Wideout to create mismatches. These types of guys are fast enough that you can't always get a square hit on them, and so big that one guy has trouble bringing them down anyway. I think this trend is only increasing in the NFL, and cornerbacks/safeties need to get bigger (on average) in order to handle it.

[Rockroi]

I think this was the Pats best win of the season, though I now question how good a team the Jets are. The Pats threw really well and actually played some D (kinda), but the best part of the game was the inspired and grind-tough play of Ben Jarvis Green-Elis. He played a career game and really just wore out the Jets. I thought the Jets looked perpetually overwhelmed. Even their supposed best advantage- their secondary - seemed to be always a step behind. Or they were cheating (wait- unless you are Zadock- in which case you are writing letters written in kitten blood to the NFL demanding an investigation into the officiating). Overall, I thought BJGE was the key to the game- Brady threw for 300+ yards and a TD, etc but BJGE killed the Jets. Just killed them. It was the most balanced attack the Pats have had since maybe 2004.

And Mark Sanchez looked lost without ever really losing the Jets the game. There was talk about a mini-mutiny among the Jets Wide Outs (I know- shocker coming from such leveled headed guys like Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress). It brings up an interesting question: Can the Jets even MAKE the playoffs right now? they are 2-3 with two teams above them at 4-1. The Bills could easily come back down to Earth but the Jets, realistically, need to go 8-3 the remainder of the season to make the playoffs. Can they? This could end poorly for the Jets.

-Then again... when, just when, is it okay to ask the legit question: will the Colts trade Peyton once they secure Luck with the #1 overall pick? (I really, rally wanted to make a "Peyton-in-a-Raiders-Jersey" joke, but I didn't want to offend... everyone). The Colts are as bad as we expected they would have been.

-And this whole Eagles thing is just a disaster. Has there EVER been a greater example of a team who thought they could just show up and they would be handed the NFC title than the Eagles? Is it just the perfect combination of disaster? An arrogant QB who has NOTHING to be arrogant about; a bunch of guys who think they are talented because they are on the Eagles, and a head coach who cannot control any of it. Total shit storm.

-I don't care what it was, McNabb is done. Please. Somebody make it stop. He used to be remarkably above-average. Now he's not even above .500 completion %. He's terrible. Somebody tell him. Also, how many great QBs will go to the Vikings to have their careers ended? McNabb, Favre, Moon, Cunningham; if we include Culpepper its practically a Madden curse.

-Just a reminder: Jets and Seattle have the same record. I don't know what's more screwed up about that. Seattle is bad, right? I mean they have a head coach who is a space-case; a lack of talent at most skill positions and they actually do not have a QB. And yet... and is it me or ... or does it seem like those guys are actually playing for Carroll? I know that sounds crazy but ... they seem like they have bought what he's selling, right? God that's fucked.

-And we agree that Ben is still a great QB , right? I'm glad we had that talk.

-Somebody break up those 49'ers! Best example that if you get rid of your crtazy head coach... wait what was that? Somebody... somebody already made that joke? Really? Uhm... Okay than, what do we talk about? Alex Smith and Frank Gore are just not that funny. Okay, Smith can be kinda funny

-OH FUCK, the Tim Teebow-era has begun... (fuckinshitsonofabitchIreallyhatethis)... The QB draw play better have a long shelf-life because this guy cannot complete 50% of his passes. And it annoys the shit out of me that this self-made media creation (I swear that's not a contradiction) finally got what he wanted... by completing 40% of his passes. Jesus Christ why can't somebody I hate just be terrible? (and I want to be clear: Teebow is just a self-important schmuck; I don't hate him in the same manner as I do somebody like Rothlessberger. But very close to Tomlinson... who may have cried last night, not sure).

-And in all this, the Green Bay Packers are undefeated, have the best player in the NFL, and have been playing better than any team in the NFL. So, yeah, that's happening.

[Jaime L]

-Then again... when, just when, is it okay to ask the legit question: will the Colts trade Peyton once they secure Luck with the #1 overall pick? (I really, rally wanted to make a "Peyton-in-a-Raiders-Jersey" joke, but I didn't want to offend... everyone). The Colts are as bad as we expected they would have been.

It'll piss me off to no end if the Colts end up with the last two once-in-a-generation QBs. They got Peyton, fine, congrats on being an awful team at the exact right time. But if they get Luck too, it's like "Fuck you!" And you know Bill Polian is puppetmastering the whole thing. Bringing in the only QB who makes Favre look young, grooming Curtis freaking Painter all these years - for all we know he probably hired some phony doctors to tell Peyton that his neck is a disaster area. I wouldn't put it past ole BIll. Give up 2011, but reign for another 15 years in the process.

Fortunately, I know Peyton won't have any of it. He doesn't want to mentor Luck any more than Favre did Rodgers. I fully expect him to come back in December, win a couple games and screw 'em out of the Luck sweepstakes.

[Maithanet]

Last night I think they said that he has the best fewest INT's per attempt in NFL history. They didn't really qualify that though. I didn't hear them say if that was for people with a certain minimum number of attempts or what. But that's a huge stat. Ask Michael Vick how important it is not to throw picks right now.

The record was fewest number of interceptions for a quarterback at the time they reach 100 touchdowns. I believe Rodgers had 34 interceptions when he threw his 100th touchdown against Atlanta yesterday, and that is the fewest ever. A 3 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio is pretty unreal for multiple years in the NFL.

[Maithanet]

Fortunately, I know Peyton won't have any of it. He doesn't want to mentor Luck any more than Favre did Rodgers. I fully expect him to come back in December, win a couple games and screw 'em out of the Luck sweepstakes.

I hope you're right. I really don't want the Colts to have another great quarterback. I'm starting to think that the Luck sweepstakes are Miami's to lose, which is surprising seeing how they looked like an OK team aside from QB going into the season, and then Henne played so well in week 1. But now he's hurt, and the rest of their team is in complete meltdown.

[Vestrit]

The Eagles have had a lot of trouble with missed tackles this year, and the Buffalo game was really bad. In general, I do think that missed tackles may be becoming a bigger issue, but I would attribute that to more teams employing big receivers at Tight End and Wideout to create mismatches. These types of guys are fast enough that you can't always get a square hit on them, and so big that one guy has trouble bringing them down anyway. I think this trend is only increasing in the NFL, and cornerbacks/safeties need to get bigger (on average) in order to handle it.

Ok, that all makes sense. Thanks for the response

[Jaime L]

I hope you're right. I really don't want the Colts to have another great quarterback. I'm starting to think that the Luck sweepstakes are Miami's to lose, which is surprising seeing how they looked like an OK team aside from QB going into the season, and then Henne played so well in week 1. But now he's hurt, and the rest of their team is in complete meltdown.

Miami's definitely a frontrunner. I just never been able to visualize Luck in a Miami uniform. Was convinced he was going to be a Seahawk this year but now they're looking too frisky* to get him. So you got Miami and Indy in the lead, but I think I see a dark horse coming up on the outside in Jacksonville.

*So frisky they just knocked all 6 remaining teams in my eliminator pool. Should've known better than to bet on the Eli Manning face.

[Starkess]

I think the Dolphins are going to win the Luck sweepstakes anyway. Seriously, look at their schedule and tell me you see many W's coming their way. @Jets, Broncos, @Giants, @Chiefs, Redskins, Bills, @Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, @Bills, @Patriots, Jets. With Henne out, mind you. That's maybe like 2 wins.

[Gold Storm]

Something funny I read about the suck for Luck campaign, Luck is a red-shirt Junior, if he does not like the team with the top pick in the NFL Draft, he could opt and stay at Stanford (or transfer) for his Senior year.

[Rhom]

Something funny I read about the suck for Luck campaign, Luck is a red-shirt Junior, if he does not like the team with the top pick in the NFL Draft, he could opt and stay at Stanford (or transfer) for his Senior year.

Well, that or he could pull an Eli Manning and just force a trade. Which is probably a much easier move now that the number one pick won't break your bank for the next decade.

[Rhom]

I think the Dolphins are going to win the Luck sweepstakes anyway. Seriously, look at their schedule and tell me you see many W's coming their way. @Jets, Broncos, @Giants, @Chiefs, Redskins, Bills, @Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, @Bills, @Patriots, Jets. With Henne out, mind you. That's maybe like 2 wins.

Agree. I think the Dolphins finally get their heir to Dan Marino... a decade and a half after he retired.

I will quibble with your win count though... where are you getting two wins? The Broncos might be a win since its in Miami. But other than that, I don't see any wins on the board.

[wolverine]

Is Andrew Luck the next Ryan Leaf?

[Lord O' Bones]

Agree. I think the Dolphins finally get their heir to Dan Marino... a decade and a half after he retired.

I will quibble with your win count though... where are you getting two wins? The Broncos might be a win since its in Miami. But other than that, I don't see any wins on the board.

Anything can happen with the Skins or the Giants. And I'm starting to realize that any team with two games against the Jets can split.

[Jaime L]

The Broncos might be a win since its in Miami. But other than that, I don't see any wins on the board.

That's not going to even be a home game for Miami. They're celebrating the Florida National Championship team because Tebow's coming to town in a desperate ploy to get people to actually come to a Dolphins game. The Dolphins organization is probably pumped now that Tebow will be starting too.

Is Andrew Luck the next Ryan Leaf?

Heck no. Ryan Leaf would've killed to have the accuracy of Luck. Dude is over 70% completion percentage in a pro style offense. Peyton Manning is the closest comparison IMO.

[Maithanet]

I'm pretty sure that to get the #1 pick this year, a team is going to need to be 1-15 or 0fer. There's the wierd distraction of Luck which is weighing down the bad teams to encourage them to remain in the cellar. Two wins will not do it. So looking down the list of remaining contenders for the #1 pick:

Winless:

Miami - Most winnable games: Denver, @ KC

Indy - Most winnable games: Carolina, two games vs Jax

St. Louis Most winnable games: Seattle, Arizona, @Arizona. This is a team that plenty of people thought would make the playoffs (myself included). However, their pass protection has been terrible, and the long term success of this team depends on Bradford not getting David Carr syndrome. If he goes down in the next three games against blitz heavy teams (GB, Dallas, NO), this team might not even be able to muster a win in the NFC West. Which would be a new kind of terrible.

Need to run the table (loss-wise)

Arizona - Still has home games against Seattle and St. Louis. Offense capable of stealing a win somewhere.

Carolina - Newton playing too well to go 0-fer the rest of the way. I think they'll get win #2 in the next three weeks (@Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota)

Minnesota - Too talented to stay out of the win column unless AP goes down.

Philadelphia - Too much pride to Suck for Luck. And they'll turn it around at some point this season, although it may not be until too late.

Denver - Is pretty bad. Reasonably difficult schedule except for two games against KC and @ Miami

Jacksonville - Also pretty bad, but at least they seem to have a defense. Gabbert is struggling like rookies typically do (thanks a lot Newton). Two games against Indy are the only real challenges to 15 in a row after that strange week 1 win over Tennessee.

I think that things will be going crazy in Indy if they actually have a chance at Luck, because I agree that Manning is not going to want that. And he might be able to either motivate his team to win or physically lead them to a couple of noLuck wins. Indy @ Jacksonville the final week could be a huge game.

[Starkess]

Miami - Most winnable games: Denver, @ KC

I think even that is a stretch, honestly. Chiefs are notoriously good at Arrowhead.

Agree. I think the Dolphins finally get their heir to Dan Marino... a decade and a half after he retired.

I will quibble with your win count though... where are you getting two wins? The Broncos might be a win since its in Miami. But other than that, I don't see any wins on the board.

That was more a "given statistical odds and random flukes, they might eke out a win or two that we can't predict" best case scenario. Looking at any of those games, no, I wouldn't pick Miami for any of them.

[Bronn Stone]

I think Luck is on track to graduate this year. I'm sure Stanfurd would admit him to grad school if that were his choice.

But I don't really get the sense there is someplace he'd specifically refuse to play. Indy would be awkward - Peyton still probably has three good years in him and they can't/won't trade him.

I know that three of the past four seasons the worst NFL team has had zero or one win, but seasons of that sort are actually pretty rare. There were no such seasons from 2002-2006. I don't see any teams that are so wretched that they can't jump up and win a pair at some point. I do agree that Miami is the leading contender, particularly if they keep Sparano twisting in the wind.

[Maithanet]

I know that three of the past four seasons the worst NFL team has had zero or one win, but seasons of that sort are actually pretty rare. There were no such seasons from 2002-2006. I don't see any teams that are so wretched that they can't jump up and win a pair at some point. I do agree that Miami is the leading contender, particularly if they keep Sparano twisting in the wind.

I agree, most years 2-14 might get you the #1 pick, but with all the talk about Suck for Luck, I don't think so. Never before have teams had a legitimate reason to want to lose, and to potentially face fan disappointment at winning games 2 and 3. Once it gets in your head that maybe looking to next year is ok, guys aren't going to be playing like this game is all they have. And football requires that kind of reckless attitude to win.