What Will Become of the Lannister Siblings, Part Deux

[1234567]

Convoluted. If the Tyrrels were to declare for the Targaryens, Margaery's possible duplicity would be the very last and smallest of Tommen's problems: his most powerful, and likely the last remaining, ally has just left him and the boy is finished anyway. But why would they switch sides in the first place? Right now, they are near the top. Remove Cersei from the picture, and they are the top. Assassinate Tommen and restore the Targaryens - now that's a chaotic play. Under new regime they could end polishing Dornish footwear.

Very good point. The only way the Tyrells would bailout is if enough of their bannermen changed sides. The original Tyrell switch to Joff was about their best interests and not what was right. However I got the impression that some of the Tyrell bannermen's loyalties would go to Aegon and the Golden Company, because of family ties and previous loyalties. I actually thought the Hightowers, Lord Rowan and Randall Tarly were good candidates to bend knee, especially since

WOW spoiler

Aegon has taken Storm's End which is already significant as a feat.

If Dorne declares for Aegon I can see the Tyrells turning as apart from the Vale all the other Kingdom's armies are through. Also the other Kingdoms hate the Lannisters and if they see a chance for revenge, may indeed also side with Aegon and carry out Guerrilla warfare (like the BWB) in the Crownlands.

[Alexia]

Very good point. The only way the Tyrells would bailout is if enough of their bannermen changed sides.

Or if Cersei grabs Tommen and runs -- and then appeals long distance for an annulment.

[tearloch]

Or if Cersei grabs Tommen and runs -- and then appeals long distance for an annulment.

I think the Tyrells already know that their involvement in this alliance is definitely not what Cersie wants. With Tywin (the glue) and Kevan (the backup glue) gone, Cersei will be as crazy and paranoid as ever. She will instantly assume either Tyrion (still lurking in the walls like some evil goblin) killed Kevan, or she will assume its another power grab by the Tyrells. Either way, she will make every effort to openly and secretly remove the Tyrells from the positions of power they have just gained. She may even try to murder Margery.

How high up were the Tyrell's in the Targaryen court? Didn't Robert raise their status after taking the throne? Maybe they will see a chance to get an even bigger slice of the Westoros pie by joining Aegon. And if they do it before Dorne, they may be successful in it. But in the end, I don't know if I can see Dorne and the Tyrells on the same side of this fight, atleast not long term.

[ARYa_Nym]

It's easier for Tommen to die in KL than at Casterly Rock. Another scenario is that after Tommen dies Jaime might think that he needs to expose Myrcella as his daughter. He's already been thinking it.

[Faint]

I'm surprised Varys is being completely ignored in this thread. Aegon is not marrying anyone he doesn't want him to marry. Frankly, he'll assassinate the bride if he has to.

He said himself that he intends to tell Tommen the truth (you know, about being the bastard child of him and his twin sister, with no rights to the throne he sits on) when he returns to King's Landing.

You can never take anything that Jaime says or thinks seriously. Provided this information got out, that would just send the realm into bitter conflict once again and nullify all his attempts at making peace over the past month. Why would he bother with it all if he was just planning on throwing it away weeks later?

I'm actually more sympathetic to your view of Jaime than most on this thread but, when it comes down to it, let's not overstate his mercy here. He's the equivalent to a burglar that comes to your home, takes hold of all your possessions, rapes your wife, cripples your child, then decides to start acting nice. Which is to say that, yes, he acts more merciful to the Tullys and Starks than would be expected under the circumstances, but this is only after the Lannisters have completely crushed them.

Or if Cersei grabs Tommen and runs -- and then appeals long distance for an annulment.

I find it difficult to believe that Cersei could secure an annulment half the continent away with the Tyrell army camped in King's Landing. She will have had to kill Maergery already in order to make this scenario the least bit plausible. And why would the Faith do Cersei any favors?

[Faint]

delete

[ARYa_Nym]

Oh, yeah. The Faith is probably going to be another enemy for Cersei because she plans to go after them because of her trial.

[brashcandy]

@Faint,

I agree about Varys. Seems to me that he will be heavily involved in choosing a bride for Aegon, if Aegon doesn't do something rash in the meantime; however, as you noted, Varys could also kill whoever it was.

[ARYa_Nym]

& he might kill whoever it was to make way for Dany when she shows up most likely without a husband. Dany would be the best because she and her dragons would ease doubts that he is Rhaegar's son.

[Alexia]

I'm actually more sympathetic to your view of Jaime than most on this thread but, when it comes down to it, let's not overstate his mercy here. He's the equivalent to a burglar that comes to your home, takes hold of all your possessions, rapes your wife, cripples your child, then decides to start acting nice. Which is to say that, yes, he acts more merciful to the Tullys and Starks than would be expected under the circumstances, but this is only after the Lannisters have completely crushed them.

Is he really so much more merciful to the Tullys and Starks than, say, Tywin would have been? I actually think Tywin would have acted very similarly -- he talks about helping a defeated enemy to his feet. And Jaime modeled his villain speech on what he thought Tywin would say... What Jaime is doing differently than Tywin is his plan to make Sansa disappear (rather than executing or using her) and sending the garrison to the Wall (which was actually kinda dumb but makes me happy since I oppose his goals).

But I'm nitpicking here since I think we're overall in agreement.

I find it difficult to believe that Cersei could secure an annulment half the continent away with the Tyrell army camped in King's Landing. She will have had to kill Maergery already in order to make this scenario the least bit plausible. And why would the Faith do Cersei any favors?

It isn't about doing her a favor -- the marriage is unconsummated and therefore illegit. But I don't think she could actually secure the annulment -- it strikes me that she might try, which will harden the Tyrells against her and push them into supporting Aegon over Tommen. Thus... her actions wind up killing her son.

[Faint]

@Faint,

I agree about Varys. Seems to me that he will be heavily involved in choosing a bride for Aegon, if Aegon doesn't do something rash in the meantime; however, as you noted, Varys could also kill whoever it was.

That's the thing -- I don't even think Varys will be able to convince Aegon if he has his mind set differently. But, even acknowledging that, it really shouldn't be that difficult for Varys to dictate policy regardless, whether by assassination or by some other method.

And, running with that some more, it seems Varys and Illyrio are set on Aegon marrying Daenerys. So the only way I don't see that scenario continuing to play out is if they, themselves, change their minds. What Aegon thinks, or even what Connington thinks, seems immaterial.

[tearloch]

Faint: exactly why can we not trust anything Jaime has said? He may have been a sack of shit, but he has been very honest. He still honors his oath to Catelyn, even though it was made at sword point and she is now dead. He has made threats, but his internal dialogue shows how torn he is about having to follow through. Jaime, I think, for the most part has been very honest as a character in this series. Sure, we may not always like what he says or does, but it is honest. Heck, even his murder of Aerys, in his mind, was about protecting the realm.

And the realm is already in chaos. Sure, it is slightly subsiding, but what happens IF his incest is known? Tommen and Margery get thrown out of the thrown room (well, Tommen atleast)? Cersei and him die for treason? Stannis becomes the rightful King? I think Jaime understands nobody likes the Lannisters.

[ARYa_Nym]

Personally, I think that Aegon will marry Arianne. Varys shouldn't kill her immediately because Aegon needs the Sunspears. If he marries Myrcella though I definitely see her being killed by Varys. I think Varys might kill her anyway once Tommen dies. She would be the Lannisters' last claim to the throne. Stannis is in the North so he won't be there to swoop in.

But actually now that I think about it Varys is a little sneak. If we look at what he did with Kevan he will most likely make it look like someone else killed her to Dorne. But then Dorne will still be alienated because Varys wants Dany for Aegon. It depends on how they get the news of Quentyn and if they blame it on Dany.

[brashcandy]

Faint: exactly why can we not trust anything Jaime has said? He may have been a sack of shit, but he has been very honest. He still honors his oath to Catelyn, even though it was made at sword point and she is now dead. He has made threats, but his internal dialogue shows how torn he is about having to follow through. Jaime, I think, for the most part has been very honest as a character in this series. Sure, we may not always like what he says or does, but it is honest. Heck, even his murder of Aerys, in his mind, was about protecting the realm.

And the realm is already in chaos. Sure, it is slightly subsiding, but what happens IF his incest is known? Tommen and Margery get thrown out of the thrown room (well, Tommen atleast)? Cersei and him die for treason? Stannis becomes the rightful King? I think Jaime understands nobody likes the Lannisters.

It's not so much that we can't trust what Jaime has said, as it is that we can't trust in that "redemption" that he's supposedly undergone.

[Faint]

Faint: exactly why can we not trust anything Jaime has said? He may have been a sack of shit, but he has been very honest.

I don't know what you're talking about -- he's literally failed to keep any oath he has ever made. I don't even think Jaime is deliberately deceiving, only that he frequently changes his mind, particularly when keeping the promise in question is hard. Basically, Jaime keeps his word up to and until it becomes difficult to do so. At that point he goes against his word, every time -- it's like clockwork.

He still honors his oath to Catelyn . . .

REALLY?!?!?

I don't even know where to start with, I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this point. To put it simply, I believe oppositely to you.

Personally, I think that Aegon will marry Arianne. Varys shouldn't kill her immediately because Aegon needs the Sunspears. If he marries Myrcella though I definitely see her being killed by Varys. I think Varys might kill her anyway once Tommen dies. She would be the Lannisters' last claim to the throne. Stannis is in the North so he won't be there to swoop in.

But actually now that I think about it Varys is a little sneak. If we look at what he did with Kevan he will most likely make it look like someone else killed her to Dorne. But then Dorne will still be alienated because Varys wants Dany for Aegon. It depends on how they get the news of Quentyn and if they blame it on Dany.

I don't know if you've read the spoilers for TWoW or not, but if so . . .

I don't know if it's necessary to marry Arianne at all. Even if Doran balks at supporting Aegon, he already has his daughter hostage. If they do marry, I think it will be as a result of Arianne seducing him. Then I can find the idea plausible.

[ARYa_Nym]

I don't know if you've read the spoilers for TWoW or not, but if so . . .

I don't know if it's necessary to marry Arianne at all. Even if Doran balks at supporting Aegon, he already has his daughter hostage. If they do marry, I think it will be as a result of Arianne seducing him. Then I can find the idea plausible.

I think she will because she said that if she had children with Darkstar they would be as beautiful as dragonlords. I think he is her type based on that comment. She seemed to desire Darkstar over Arys.

Oh, and I just remembered someone in another thread brought up how he wanted to go to the brothels but Griff wouldn't allow it. So the temptation is there.

[iamthedave]

:) I know we agreed to disagree, but this is precisely the point I think Alexia is trying to make: Jaime isn't hiding her away for some altruistic reasons, he's doing it because she would be a threat to Lannister interests. That line about her getting her head smashed by some knight is rich coming from him, when she spent her time getting beaten up by Joffrey's KG and ignored by Cersei.

And the first thing Jaime did on getting back to Kings Landing was chew out the entire Kingsguard for being involved in said activities, and order them directly to essentially ignore the king if he ever was to make such a command again.

I do find it amusing, by the way, that Catelyn's best efforts to get her daughter back are exactly the same as the ones Jaime used: Get Brienne to do it.

The difference is Jaime didn't feel the need to coerce her by hanging two innocent people into the bargain...

[brashcandy]

And the first thing Jaime did on getting back to Kings Landing was chew out the entire Kingsguard for being involved in said activities, and order them directly to essentially ignore the king if he ever was to make such a command again.

Good for him! :rolleyes: My point is not whether or not he condoned such activities, but that Sansa has already suffered in large part because of his family, his direct actions, and that he really is no place to be making decisions about what will be good for her in the future. He cannot be some disinterested observer who is merely trying to do what is right for her as he is still very much working to ensure that the Lannister power stays intact. And no one said he was being machiavellian, simply that this seemingly benign suggestion takes cares of a pretty big problem for the Lannisters. Convenient, isn't it?

[iamthedave]

Good for him! :rolleyes: My point is not whether or not he condoned such activities, but that Sansa has already suffered in large part because of his family, his direct actions, and that he really is no place to be making decisions about what will be good for her in the future. He cannot be some disinterested observer who is merely trying to do what is right for her as he is still very much working to ensure that the Lannister power stays intact. And no one said he was being machiavellian, simply that this seemingly benign suggestion takes cares of a pretty big problem for the Lannisters. Convenient, isn't it?

Jaime has never done a goddamn thing to Sansa Stark. Not one. He tried to kill Robb because he was on the other side in a war. THE VILLAINY!!!!!!!

As is always the case with Jaime, it comes back to Bran, because that's really the only incident worth holding against him. The rest is a bunch of meh and no more than would be expected of anyone, including the Starks, in a situation like this.

& he might kill whoever it was to make way for Dany when she shows up most likely without a husband. Dany would be the best because she and her dragons would ease doubts that he is Rhaegar's son.

I imagine Varys would like to marry Aegon to Dany, and as far as we know he plans to marry Dany as well. Tyrion's plan - as he put it to Aegon - was to go to Westeros and build up his forces so he could go to her with a great big army as a fellow conqueror and get married as an equal.

Of course, young hearts are foolish and he might well be seduced by a Dornish woman or be persuaded by Connington to marry someone else.

[The Lost Lord]

And, running with that some more, it seems Varys and Illyrio are set on Aegon marrying Daenerys. So the only way I don't see that scenario continuing to play out is if they, themselves, change their minds. What Aegon thinks, or even what Connington thinks, seems immaterial… it really shouldn't be that difficult for Varys to dictate policy regardless, whether by assassination or by some other method.

Varys and Illyrio wanted Aegon to go east, and how did that work out? It's Varys' desires that are immaterial. He has in fact no way at all of controlling Aegon, not even a personal relationship with him so he can give trusted advice. Random murders are a blunt instrument that create chaos, they're not a way to "dictate policy."

Personally I think Varys couldn't care less who Aegon marries. He wants Aegon on the throne and marrying Dany seemed the best way to make that happen. But if Aegon can conquer Westeros via a marriage alliance before Dany ever gets there, then why would Varys object?