What Will Become of the Lannister Siblings, Part Deux

[1234567]

Personally, my top reason for why it won't be Tyrion is that he never lets characters get revenge, especially when it's on people who deserve it most.

Even Danaerys and Arya, one who has a list of possible 'revenge victims' as long as her arm and the other who has been mumbling the same words for at least a dozen chapters by now, are looking perilously close to failing to kill a single major person on their list. Arya managed to get The Tickler, which makes her - I think - the most successful revenger in the series to date.

I'm pretty sure the ship's sailed on everyone Dany could reasonably want to roast with the exception of Jaime.

Indeed. Even Cat couldn't get up the length of a hall to kill Walder Frey. However there have been more case of personal revenge than one would initially suppose.

Arya : Tickler

Jon: Janos Slynt

Tyrion: Tywin

Oberyn: Gregor (Okay both died, but Oberyn got his confession and would have known the first time the poisoned spear hit Gregor that he was dead)

Brienne: Vargo Hoat (Okay stretching it here! But that ear infection did stop him from escaping Gregor!)

UnCat: Merret Frey....and other Freys I can't remember

Wyman Manderly: Frey Pies

[Alexia]

I mean, even for those that do not believe the obvious choices for the prophecy, I'm curious to hear what you guys will think if it does turn out that Tommen dies, Myrcella is crowned then dies, Daenerys strips the Lannisters from power, and, finally, Jaime chokes Cersei to death.

I know that I would hate that series of events (even though I believe that's pretty much how it will play out) but what do you guys think?

I would hate that series of events but I don't think it will happen, either. I think that

1) Jaime is dead... we'll next meet Brienne mourning his passing;

2) Cersei is going to go to Casterly Rock to try to raise an army;

3) Tommen is going to die (poor kid is doomed);

4) Myrcella I am unsure of but I rather hope she survives, especially since she got "narrative punishment" already;

5) The Vale is going to declare independence and a marriage between the heir to Winterfell and Riverrun and the heir to the Vale will take place, establishing a new kingdom and crowning the Younger Queen;

6) The BwB is going to raid Riverrun and hang the unfortunate Lady Genna and her husband and sons;

7) Tyrion is going to attack the Westerlands on dragonback with the Seven Sons. He will take Casterly Rock and fulfill his fantasy of raping and murdering his sister;

8) Connington is going to take KL and Myrcella

9) Dany is going to invade either in the riverlands (per her vision of fighting Others at the Trident) or the North (maybe Quaithe or someone will tell her to open her invasion there). She will die heroically in battle.

I am not sure how the Ironborn fit in... but this is my sketchy vision of what comes next.

[Faint]

I'd only endorse #6, although, I suppose #7 is feasible. The rest I can't even imagine happening.

Edit: While we're on the subject, I think Jaime will kill Cersei while they're both stuck in a dungeon they've been sent to by Daenerys. The other possibility I have in mind is Jaime coming to the dungeon that Cersei is in, much like he came for Tyrion, only this time he is going to kill the imprisoned sibling. I can also imagine a scenario where Tyrion frees Jaime, much like he freed him, this occurring after Jaime strangles Cersei.

[1234567]

@ Alexia

1) Jaime is dead... we'll next meet Brienne mourning his passing; This would be a shocker of an exit.

2) Cersei is going to go to Casterly Rock to try to raise an army; I agree, especially as the Tyrells may side with Aegon.

3) Tommen is going to die (poor kid is doomed); Toast or Kitty Treats

4) Myrcella I am unsure of but I rather hope she survives, especially since she got "narrative punishment" already; Potential Lannister survivor

5) The Vale is going to declare independence and a marriage between the heir to Winterfell and Riverrun and the heir to the Vale will take place, establishing a new kingdom and crowning the Younger Queen; Not sure. I still think there is a possibility Sansa is the Younger Queen and will marry Aegon. She indirectly caused Joff's death and by extention Tywin's. Jaime rejected Cersei's cries for help to look for Sansa. Again her being the indirect cause of death.

6) The BwB is going to raid Riverrun and hang the unfortunate Lady Genna and her husband and sons; I used to think this was crackpot, but actually there seem to be some heavy hints to this in Jaime's finally chapters in AFFC and ADWD.

7) Tyrion is going to attack the Westerlands on dragonback with the Seven Sons. He will take Casterly Rock and fulfill his fantasy of raping and murdering his sister; Not sure. For all my current dislike of the character, I'm hoping the WOW will see a massive redemption arc.

8) Connington is going to take KL and Myrcella Interesting. What will he do with her?

9) Dany is going to invade either in the riverlands (per her vision of fighting Others at the Trident) or the North (maybe Quaithe or someone will tell her to open her invasion there). She will die heroically in battle. I can actually see Dany arriving in Westeros not as an invader but as a saviour from the advancing Others. Ironically she won't have to fight for her throne after all the build up, because people see her as a saviour.

I am not sure how the Ironborn fit in... but this is my sketchy vision of what comes next. Fingers crossed they take that guy up on his suggestion and the entire population gets in their Longboats and heads West across the sea.

[Alexia]

I'd only endorse #6, although, I suppose #7 is feasible. The rest I can't even imagine happening.

You don't think Aegon is going to take KL? I foresee that very strongly, given Dany's vision of crowds cheering the puppet dragon. It is on the list of theories I feel fairly confident in. And what about #2 and #3? What is your alternative theory for Cersei? She's not going to sit on her behind in KL after Kevan's death in Tyrell hands, especially if she thinks that Tyrion is loose in the castle.

[The Lost Lord]

Plus, we learned that Cersei was born first in ACOK if I recall correctly. I firmly believe the prophecy about Maggy was a retcon (as is a ton of crap when it comes to AFFC/ADWD Cersei and Jaime, but I don't even want to get started there).

I read some old So Spake Martins recently and after ASOS came out, during the brief period he spent working on the "post-5 year gap" book, Martin said he was unsure whether he would include a Cersei POV. So I think you're right -- he never intended to include a Cersei POV, and only after he got stuck trying to fill space in AFFC with her POV did he invent Maggy as an attempt to provide a plausible motivation for her.

What can this tell us about Cersei's fate? Well, it would likely omit all non-POV character theories as the strangler, right? (Unless a POV character would be there to witness it, or unless Martin has retconned the manner of Cersei's death -- but I don't believe he'd do that, as he's said he's known all major characters' fates for ages.)

I mean, even for those that do not believe the obvious choices for the prophecy, I'm curious to hear what you guys will think if it does turn out that Tommen dies, Myrcella is crowned then dies, Daenerys strips the Lannisters from power, and, finally, Jaime chokes Cersei to death. I know that I would hate that series of events (even though I believe that's pretty much how it will play out) but what do you guys think?

Well it's all in the execution -- I don't dislike a plot development just because I see it coming. But I have trouble seeing how your theory (which is the most common one) works. As Alexia said, if Dany is the younger queen, the strangler should logically be Tyrion. What, is Jaime just going to show up when Cersei has already lost power and her kids are dead, and kill her for spite, or something?

The only possible motivation Jaime would have is if he is rock-solid certain somehow that Cersei knowingly killed Tommen and/or Myrcella. (Even if Cersei causes the deaths of one or both in an accident -- say by unleashing UnGregor and creating chaos -- I can't see Jaime strangling her for that when she will clearly be beside herself with grief herself.) But this explanation doesn't really make sense either because of locale. If Jaime/Cersei reunite in King's Landing, why is the Kingslayer walking around with Dany's forces in charge? If Jaime/Cersei reunite at Casterly Rock, how is Jaime rock-solid certain that Cersei killed the kid/s? Your dungeon scenarios seem very far-fetched to me.

Personally, my top reason for why it won't be Tyrion is that he never lets characters get revenge, especially when it's on people who deserve it most…. Arya managed to get The Tickler, which makes her - I think - the most successful revenger in the series to date.

But the Tickler is a great comparison to how this would play out. Arya goes a little nuts with the stabby-stabby and it's kinda disturbing. Catelyn is getting her revenge on the Freys and it's turned her into a monster willing to hang an 11-year old boy. This is GRRM's general view on revenge -- either he doesn't let you get it, or he lets you get it in a disturbing and self-destructive way.

You don't think Aegon is going to take KL? I foresee that very strongly

Agreed, I consider this close to a sure thing. Would you rethink your views on whether GRRM is a "hide the ball" author if this happens, Faint?

[Alexia]

The only possible motivation Jaime would have is if he is rock-solid certain somehow that Cersei killed Tommen and/or Myrcella. (

Meh. Jaime doesn't give a shit about his children. He is planning to get them all killed by revealing their paternity anyway. I'll tell you what -- let's say I'm wrong and Jaime survives and is the strangler. The way I would see it happening is if, like Aerys, Cersei tries to burn King's Landing. That I could see happening. The High Septon and the Sept of Baelor is just begging for a good burning (Sansa even wished for it to happen back in ACOK). Thanks to Varys, Cersei is coming unraveled with paranoia of Tyrion and believes that he is in the castle walls. At this point, I could easily see her tossing wildfire on the whole mess (especially those people in Flea Bottom who laughed at her) and torching the whole thing. And that is something that I could see getting Jaime's attention.

[Chalais]

Another reason that Jamie might kill Cersei would be out of pity, because according to the prophecy 'after you drown in your tears, your little brother will strangle you'.

I think that after the death of her last child, Cersei will decend into such a pathetic state of depression/psychosis that death would be a relief for her.

[Ser Lepus]

Another reason that Jamie might kill Cersei would be out of pity, because according to the prophecy 'after you drown in your tears, your little brother will strangle you'. I think that after the death of her last child, Cersei will decend into such a pathetic state of depression/psychosis that death would be a relief for her.

I explain a similar theory here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/57998-what-will-become-of-the-lannister-siblings/page__st__740

[brashcandy]

I don't see the valonquar choking Cersei as some sort of mercy killing. And it really isn't Jaime. The man has one hand. Surely by cutting it off Martin was sending us a clear signal.

What if everything in Cersei's tragedy is very straightforward i.e. the younger Queen really is Margaery and the valonquar turns out to be Loras. He too has reason to hate Cersei - she destroyed his sister - and he's probably going to be even more unstable now that he's lost his looks supposedly.

[Ser Lepus]

I don't see the valonquar choking Cersei as some sort of mercy killing. And it really isn't Jaime. The man has one hand. Surely by cutting it off Martin was sending us a clear signal.

What if everything in Cersei's tragedy is very straightforward i.e. the younger Queen really is Margaery and the valonquar turns out to be Loras. He too has reason to hate Cersei - she destroyed his sister - and he's probably going to be even more unstable now that he's lost his looks supposedly.

Exactly! In my theory, I explain how the hand thing is a red herring to make us readers thing Jamie is not the valonqar!.

He strangles Cersei with the chain of golden hands, the one Tyrion used on Shae.

[1234567]

I still think there is a strong possibility the Valonquar is Edmure. In regards to Cersei and the prophecy, the only reason I can see for GRRM including it, is if it is too highlight that Cersei made it a self fullfilling one through her actions.

[Faint]

What is your alternative theory for Cersei? She's not going to sit on her behind in KL after Kevan's death in Tyrell hands, especially if she thinks that Tyrion is loose in the castle.

Don't you find it strange we've not heard of this flight to Casterly Rock in Arianne's second chapter in TWoW? Frankly, I don't think Cersei is ever leaving King's Landing again. The Tyrells, themselves, seem to be spreading across the kingdom to deal with the Ironborn and Aegon. Basically, they won't have time to deal with Cersei's plotting -- Aegon has forced their hands.

Edit: I will say that one good thing your theory has going for it is that GRRM keeps talking about showing us Casterly Rock. So one way or another, it seems one of the POVs will end up there. Although, last time he talked about it, he was giving us a time frame towards the end of TWoW. I don't know if that makes it more or less likely.

[The Lost Lord]

I'll tell you what -- let's say I'm wrong and Jaime survives and is the strangler. The way I would see it happening is if, like Aerys, Cersei tries to burn King's Landing. That I could see happening... And that is something that I could see getting Jaime's attention.

That is plausible. But the other half of the prophecy implies Cersei will already have been cast down and drowned by her tears by a younger queen when the valonqar does the strangling. So how would she still be in a position to burn KL? Someone drowned by her tears doesn't seem, to me, to be on the verge of burning down a city. "Drowned" implies defeated, I think. That's why I always see it happening when Cersei is a prisoner.

FYI, just found an interesting poll on Tower of the Hand on who fans think the valonqar will be -- 53% say Jaime, only 6% say Tyrion.

[Ser Lepus]

That is plausible. But the other half of the prophecy implies Cersei will already have been cast down and drowned by her tears by a younger queen when the valonqar does the strangling. So how would she still be in a position to burn KL? Someone drowned by her tears doesn't seem, to me, to be on the verge of burning down a city. "Drowned" implies defeated, I think. That's why I always see it happening when Cersei is a prisoner.

FYI, just found an interesting poll on Tower of the Hand on who fans think the valonqar will be -- 53% say Jaime, only 6% say Tyrion.

Cersei is using the Tears of Lys as a remedy against imsomnia and nightmares, but an overdose can send you into a coma; Jamie will mercy-kill her.

[Alexia]

I can also imagine a scenario where Tyrion frees Jaime, much like he freed him, this occurring after Jaime strangles Cersei.

Color me skeptical. As near as I can see, the Lannister brothers' relationship is over. Kaput. Jaime is not best pleased about Tyrion's murder of their father and is planning to arrange a secret marriage for said brother's wife when he finally puts his hands on her. And Tyrion has decided to reserve the spike next to Cersei's head for Jaime because "no man should ever come between my brother and sister" in retaliation for Tysha. If the brothers were to ever meet again (I don't think they will) whichever one has the upper hand will kill the other, IMO.

Don't you find it strange we've not heard of this flight to Casterly Rock in Arianne's second chapter in TWoW? Frankly, I don't think Cersei is ever leaving King's Landing again. The Tyrells, themselves, seem to be spreading across the kingdom to deal with the Ironborn and Aegon. Basically, they won't have time to deal with Cersei's plotting -- Aegon has forced their hands.

What do you think the Tyrells will do with her? Kevan was planning to send her to the Rock after her trial. So long as she stays in KL, she's in Tyrell power and neutralized. And Arianne's "second chapter in TWOW was supposed to be in ADWD originally.

But the other half of the prophecy implies Cersei will already have been cast down and drowned by her tears by a younger queen when the valonqar does the strangling. So how would she still be in a position to burn KL?

Not a bad point, but hasn't she already been cast down? She's been totally stripped of all power and paraded naked through the streets and is currently suffering trauma that looks very akin to that of a rape victim. I think that right now she's got her back against a wall and she'll come back snarling. But I still subscribe to the theory that Jaime won't be her killer, so I acknowledge the hole here.

[Faint]

What do you think the Tyrells will do with her? Kevan was planning to send her to the Rock after her trial. So long as she stays in KL, she's in Tyrell power and neutralized. And Arianne's "second chapter in TWOW was supposed to be in ADWD originally.

I just think that if Cersei had taken Tommen and fled to Casterly Rock this would have made news by now. Keep in mind, Arianne's second chapter takes place several weeks, if not more, after Kevan's death. And this doesn't account for Myrcella and the Sand Snakes headed to King's Landing. Of course, you can always be of the opinion that Cersei would be willing to abandon her daughter to the Tyrells. But if that was the case, she would have had to act very fast -- in other words, the news would be there and Arianne would have learned of it by now.

But in any case, I'm not going to dismiss the idea completely. GRRM has been known to wreck the timeline when he gets himself into a hole. I'm already suspicious about the fact that we've not heard about Cersei's trial in Arianne's POV (this seems implausible unless GRRM simply decided to skip over it in the reading). So to that, I should correct myself, I can imagine Cersei ending up in Casterly Rock, but GRRM is going to have to play some serious games with the timeline to get us there. For one, she's going to have to make the trip in record time if she plans on raising an army within the length of one book.

Edit: As to what the Tyrells will do with her, I imagine they'll ignore her. They'll think she's completely devoid of power and not bother paying attention to her plots. This will apply whether she stays or runs away (indeed, if she successfully runs away, this will be the reason). One other point I think you're not accounting for is that Varys will help Cersei gain power in King's Landing so as to weaken the alliance with the Tyrells.

[The Lost Lord]

so I acknowledge the hole here.

I do think Cersei will "come back snarling" but afterwards I think she'll be cast down in a more permanent way. If she's already been cast down then Marg is the younger queen.

Anyway, there are holes or there is stretching in practically every "younger queen / valonqar" theory. The biggest problem is the crowning of Myrcella. I know you think it was already fulfilled, but she's headed toward King's Landing and seems set to come into play. Plus, if Tommen dies somehow (like everyone assumes), she'll pretty much have to be crowned, right? If one assumes Aegon takes King's Landing like we both do, that's another wrench in the works. Myrcella could be crowned for like a few days before Aegon arrives married to Arianne or Sansa to cast Cersei down, with Cersei escaping to Casterly Rock to be strangled by Jaime or Tyrion later on, and that would fulfill it.

But I still like the idea that Cersei's comeback is to engineer the defeat of the hated Tyrells by betrothing Myrcella to Aegon -- only to then have Dany and Tyrion show up on dragons and ruin everything, with Tyrion as valonqar. That's the cleanest way to fulfill the prophecy while retaining the assumption that Aegon will take KL, with the least stretching or airbrushing of the prophecy's component parts.

Keep in mind, Arianne's second chapter takes place several weeks, if not more, after Kevan's death.

No, we don't know that. To quote Martin's intro to ASOS: "In the case of the volume now in hand, the reader should realize that the opening chapters of A Storm of Swords do not follow the closing chapters of A Clash of Kings so much as overlap them. I open with a look at some of the things that were happening on the Fist of the First Men, at Riverrun, Harrenhal, and on the Trident while the Battle of the Blackwater was being fought at King’s Landing, and during its aftermath . . ."

Also, the chapter is not in its final form. Martin said he would not do any TWOW writing this year. That chapter was taken out of ADWD in 2009 after Martin decided to move Aegon's landing from the middle of the book to the end of the book. So it is not necessarily up to date with his most recent timeline changes.

[nara]

Color me skeptical. As near as I can see, the Lannister brothers' relationship is over. Kaput. Jaime is not best pleased about Tyrion's murder of their father and is planning to arrange a secret marriage for said brother's wife when he finally puts his hands on her.

I don't remember him planning a marriage for Sansa. Can you please direct me to this passage?

[Alexia]

I don't remember him planning a marriage for Sansa. Can you please direct me to this passage?

It is when he tells his hostage that he hopes Lord Eddard's older daughter forgets she was a Stark and marries a blacksmith or an innkeep. His plans for what to do with Sansa when he recovers her become very, very clear. He's going to threaten her like he did Edmure, marry her off to some peasant, and congratulate himself on how he kept his oath (NOT!) to Lady Catelyn afterward.

But in any case, I'm not going to dismiss the idea completely. GRRM has been known to wreck the timeline when he gets himself into a hole.

Yeah, that's the problem here. Arya is way ahead of everyone else and I'm sure he's not planning to do anything about that, for example. And there will be overlap in timeline between ADWD and TWOW anyway -- Sansa and Sam did not appear at all, for example, and there will be overlap with the Dornish chapters. Any Jaime/Brienne chapters that appear would be taking place weeks, if not months, before Kevan's epilogue.

I know you think it was already fulfilled, but she's headed toward King's Landing and seems set to come into play. Plus, if Tommen dies somehow (like everyone assumes), she'll pretty much have to be crowned, right?

Yeah, that's the big problem. If Myrcella survives it would have to be some kind of a twist because logically it doesn't seem that she will. If I had to make a straight guess of what looks like the most logical outcome, the Tyrells will immediately seize her and marry her to Willas, and either Tommen will die courtesy of Varys or Cersei will take him and flee, with the outcome being that the Tyrells crown her. I think the prophecy could be fulfilled through what already happened, but as you said, she looks like she might be coming back into play.

Another possibility is that Aegon decides to marry her to unite his line with the Usurper's after killing Tommen. Connington is an obstacle to this, but it is a possibility.