Learning to lead III: the search for decisive actions, a re-read project of the Daenerys and Jon chapters from ADWD

[Faint]

This presupposes that there's a scenario in which the Boltons would accept a NW with Jon as its LC, so the negative outcome you are proposing is based on a supposition. You might be right, but given how GRRM has portrayed the Boltons I see no reason for them to be happy to have a Stark in charge of the NW (particularly with Stannis having already dealt with Jon, suggesting that if that ship of reasonable interaction ever existed it is presumably gone already).

This might have truly become a problem in the long term. In fact, I imagine it would have. That said, I don't think the Boltons had any immediate intentions to do anything about it in the near term. 'Arya Stark' changes the whole equation.

. . . because you think that taking Arya away from the Boltons is a strategically poor move?

Well, wasn't it? It doesn't seem to have worked out to me.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

This is interesting. In short, I agree with you (and I think Jon does as well for the most part lol). He regrets his decision to not take Stannis's offer more than anything in ADWD. The problem is- As Jon conceived of Stannis's offer, he was going to have to burn the Weirwood down at Winterfell, take a wildling as his wife, and just generally disgrace the Gods of the North and all Northmen in general and his father in particular. So I'm not sure that Jon taking Stannis's offer would be prudent- In fact, I'd argue Stannis's biggest problem is how blinded he's become by Mel and the Red God because it worked out for him earlier. He's kidding himself if he thinks the North will ever truly follow him so long as his "Queen" Mel is demanding they burn their gods.

And I'd argue if anything Jon has done the one most important thing he could do with the Wall- He brought most of the wildlings South and prevented them from becoming fodder for the Others' wights and thus increasing the numbers against Westeros. Likewise, Jon's decision to marry Alys to a wildling could have repercussions in terms of helping to integrate wildlings back into the North. So that could be Jon's lasting impact from his time at the Wall.

If Robb's will shows up like we all think it will eventually, Jon's decision to refuse Stannis's offer should look much better in hindsight as Jon will be uniting the North in a much more comprehensive way.

Yes. I don't get the criticism of Jon turning down Stannis' offer, for the reasons you gave. It'd involve blaspheming the old gods, and Winterfell was not Stannis' to give. And just because Jon turned down Stannis' offer — which had many, many strings attached — doesn't mean he'd walk away from Robb's will.

The entire point of Stannis offering Winterfell to Jon was to have, basically, one of his stooges in charge in the North. But how many northerners would rally behind Jon if they saw him as a sellout to some southern king, especially if he burned the heart tree? If Jon had taken Winterfell under Stannis' terms, I think that would have alienated the northern lords more than anything. So how would he be strategically better off if he did that? If anything, the Alys Karstark episode shows that Jon doesn't really need Stannis to gain a loyalty foothold in the North; he can get by on his own name and his own reputation, and he can bide his time and perhaps eventually get Winterfell on his own terms, either in his own right or as a regent for one of this siblings.

[butterbumps!]

Well, wasn't it? It doesn't seem to have worked out to me.

What hasn't worked out? The Battle for Winterfell that hasn't happened yet? We should really wait to discuss the final chapter until it's time, though. We have 3 more chapters to the stabbing, and a lot of foreshadowing/ hints in the interim, so maybe we should hold off judgements about it until then.

[Faint]

This is interesting. In short, I agree with you (and I think Jon does as well for the most part lol). He regrets his decision to not take Stannis's offer more than anything in ADWD. The problem is- As Jon conceived of Stannis's offer, he was going to have to burn the Weirwood down at Winterfell, take a wildling as his wife, and just generally disgrace the Gods of the North and all Northmen in general and his father in particular. So I'm not sure that Jon taking Stannis's offer would be prudent- In fact, I'd argue Stannis's biggest problem is how blinded he's become by Mel and the Red God because it worked out for him earlier. He's kidding himself if he thinks the North will ever truly follow him so long as his "Queen" Mel is demanding they burn their gods.

I do wonder whether Stannis would have truly forced the North to convert their gods and the like.

In any case, I actually agree with Jon rejecting the offer for purely pragmatic reasons. The fact is, the scheme was not very likely to succeed.

[Punchslap]

This might have truly become a problem in the long term. In fact, I imagine it would have. That said, I don't think the Boltons had any immediate intentions to do anything about it in the near term. 'Arya Stark' changes the whole equation.

So do you think the Boltons are indifferent to Stannis interaction with the NW at the Wall? I assume they would interpret it as the NW taking his side (in which case, all the debate about Jon's stratagems are moot in terms of the Boltons at least).

In regards to the vegetarian giant (I don't think this was you, Faint): from the description I see the giants are ape-like, in which case vegetarianism is pretty logical. Their size living up north isn't an issue--think of mammoths, wholly rhinos, etc that used to thrive in frozen lands.

[Faint]

What hasn't worked out? The Battle for Winterfell that hasn't happened yet? We should really wait to discuss the final chapter until it's time, though. We have 3 more chapters to the stabbing, and a lot of foreshadowing/ hints in the interim, so maybe we should hold off judgements about it until then.

No, I mean for him personally. Whatever Jon's objectives, I don't think they included bedlam breaking loose on the Wall and his assassination at the hands of his own men. Somewhere along the line his reasoning faced reality and reality won.

[Arya Targaryen]

I always wondered whether Mance recognized "Arya" or not. I mean, he was sent to pick up Arya Stark (and he saw her at Winterfell before). He might have seen Alys on the way and realized she was not Arya, so he went on to Winterfell. And there he saw another girl, who was called Arya, but clearly wasn't her. He helped her anyway, but I think his major aim was now something else - like find a way how to take Winterfell by asking Theon how he did it?

Maybe that was his purpose from the beginning, but should he have met the real Arya, maybe he would have sent a spearwife or two back to CB with her.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I always wondered whether Mance recognized "Arya" or not. I mean, he was sent to pick up Arya Stark (and he saw her at Winterfell before). He might have seen Alys on the way and realized she was not Arya, so he went on to Winterfell. And there he saw another girl, who was called Arya, but clearly wasn't her. He helped her anyway, but I think his major aim was now something else - like find a way how to take Winterfell by asking Theon how he did it?

Maybe that was his purpose from the beginning, but should he have met the real Arya, maybe he would have sent a spearwife or two back to CB with her.

That's actually a heck of a good question (probably for another thread). Mance (and thus the spearwives) had to have known that Jeyne wasn't really Arya, and yet they stuck it out. To what end? And why did they care about the crypts?

[Ragnorak]

I think the reasoning for all of Jon's decisions can be found in Aemon's speech back in GoT

“Tell me, Jon, if the day should ever come when your lord father must needs choose between honor on the one hand and those he loves on the other, what would he do?”

...

“Once,” the old man said. “Once. So you see, Jon, I do know… and knowing, I will not tell you stay or go. You must make that choice yourself, and live with it all the rest of your days. As I have.” His voice fell to a whisper. “As I have…”

He is making the choices he can live with for all the rest of his days.

[Tagganaro]

I do wonder whether Stannis would have truly forced the North to convert their gods and the like.

In any case, I actually agree with Jon rejecting the offer for purely pragmatic reasons. The fact is, the scheme was not very likely to succeed.

Yeah, I'm not sure it matters though to be honest, just because of all the stuff Mel has already done (burning the Sept on Dragonstone, having the wildlings burn the weir woods, etc.) As long as Mel is around, there is going to be that fanaticism and all the rumors swirling around her and Stannis. And as AM said above, regardless the North is not going to look kindly on another Southron King trying to subdue them again after all they went through with Robb. [quote name=Arya Targaryen'

timestamp='1343715882' post='3454815]

I always wondered whether Mance recognized "Arya" or not. I mean, he was sent to pick up Arya Stark (and he saw her at Winterfell before). He might have seen Alys on the way and realized she was not Arya, so he went on to Winterfell. And there he saw another girl, who was called Arya, but clearly wasn't her. He helped her anyway, but I think his major aim was now something else - like find a way how to take Winterfell by asking Theon how he did it?

Maybe that was his purpose from the beginning, but should he have met the real Arya, maybe he would have sent a spearwife or two back to CB with her.

[Faint]

So do you think the Boltons are indifferent to Stannis interaction with the NW at the Wall? I assume they would interpret it as the NW taking his side (in which case, all the debate about Jon's stratagems are moot in terms of the Boltons at least).

Actually, many posters over the years have argued quite persuasively that Jon should not have accepted the position of Lord Commander for the very reason that it instantly ended all hope of getting aid from the Iron Throne or any of the ruling houses of Westeros.

Personally, I don't think it mattered on that account because they were never going to receive aid anyway.

That said, there was always a big danger in having Jon as Lord Commander if Stannis lost.

[Associate Maester]

That's actually a heck of a good question (probably for another thread). Mance (and thus the spearwives) had to have known that Jeyne wasn't really Arya, and yet they stuck it out. To what end? And why did they care about the crypts?

I don't see how Mance couldn't have known that Jeyne was fake. He knows the "Stark features." Is Mance looking for something at Winterfell for his own agenda or is it another mission from Mel?

[Stubby]

[MOD]

Please, refrain from taking potshots at other boarders just because they like on perticular character or dislike another.

This issue has been a problem in other threads and has led to suspensions.

By all means debate the reasons why someone should not like or dislike a particular character but do not simply post side comments about the poster.

[/MOD]

[Punchslap]

Actually, many posters over the years have argued quite persuasively that Jon should not have accepted the position of Lord Commander for the very reason that it instantly ended all hope of getting aid from the Iron Throne or any of the ruling houses of Westeros.

Personally, I don't think it mattered on that account because they were never going to receive aid anyway.

That said, there was always a big danger in having Jon as Lord Commander if Stannis lost.

I agree with the former, but the implication of the latter is that you think Jon could have placated the Boltons and that's what I have a hard time seeing after Stannis has been at the Wall. I think [insert name here] LC would have trouble with the Boltons given that situation, since (in your hypothetical scenario) a victorious Bolton would not be happy with the appearance of Stannis support at the Wall. Of course, the further one speculates down the rabbit hole of hypothetical situations the more uncertain everything becomes. I think Stannis' defeat by the Boltons (assuming it happens, which I doubt) isn't particularly important given that we know Manderly (and others) are already aiming to destroy Roose & Ramsay.

[Faint]

Mance makes a point of saying he sought out and made note of every Stark.

Did he really? Is this when he described infiltrating Winterfell and saw Jon for the first time?

[Ragnorak]

Did he really? Is this when he described infiltrating Winterfell and saw Jon for the first time?

Here's the quote

I betook of your lord father’s meat and mead, had a look at Kingslayer and Imp… and made passing note of Lord Eddard’s children and the wolf pups that ran at their heels.”

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I agree with the former, but the implication of the latter is that you think Jon could have placated the Boltons and that's what I have a hard time seeing after Stannis has been at the Wall. I think [insert name here] LC would have trouble with the Boltons given that situation, since (in your hypothetical scenario) a victorious Bolton would not be happy with the appearance of Stannis support at the Wall. Of course, the further one speculates down the rabbit hole of hypothetical situations the more uncertain everything becomes. I think Stannis' defeat by the Boltons (assuming it happens, which I doubt) isn't particularly important given that we know Manderly (and others) are already aiming to destroy Roose & Ramsay.

Yes. I'd like for someone to set up some parameters for what "winning" would look like here, for Jon. The Boltons can't be reasoned with or placated. Stannis saved the Watch from a wildling assault and the Watch owes him (qualifier — they asked the kings to come or at least send help). Leaving the wildlings on the other side of the Wall wouldn't solve anything and would only mean having to face a few thousand more wights when they could have had those thousands of live people for manpower. Just because Bowen's too narrow-minded and cowardly to see it doesn't mean he or his cronies should be humored or mollycoddled. The realm doesn't interfere with the Watch, supposedly, yet I haven't seen any anti-Jon criticism of Ramsay for demanding his own hostages.

And who's to say that even if Jon hadn't allowed Mance to go after Arya, the Boltons wouldn't have still held the Watch responsible? Maybe they incorrectly assume she's there and try to assault the Watch anyway. Who knows. Point is, Ramsay Bolton is not exactly someone who can be negotiated or reasoned with and it's a fool's errand to suggest that Jon should have indulged him. If anything, that would only embolden the Boltons and they'd likely just keep asking for more and more and making more demands. Give a psycho a cookie, he's going to want a glass of milk.

[Faint]

Of course, the further one speculates down the rabbit hole of hypothetical situations the more uncertain everything becomes. I think Stannis' defeat by the Boltons (assuming it happens, which I doubt) isn't particularly important given that we know Manderly (and others) are already aiming to destroy Roose & Ramsay.

Well, to be fair, going by the reasoning of what we know will happen, every decision someone like Jon makes is, ex post facto, correct. After all, he is one of heroes of the story, so consequently his decisions will always be proved right in the end. You can only ever argue the merits of such decisions based on their reasonableness at the moment they were made.

[Faint]

Here's the quote

That sounds somewhat dubious. I'd not equate "passing note" with "memorized their faces." Also, keep in mind, it's been more than a year since that feast.

[Punchslap]

You can only ever argue the merits of such decisions based on their reasonableness at the moment they were made.

I take it you mean you don't want to consider what a different LC would do since Jon is the LC when those decisions are made. I'm a bit confused about your overall point--you've said that you don't think the Boltons had any immediate plans to deal with the NW until the 'Arya Stark' mission, but also said you thought Jon as LC was a problem if Stannis lost. Those are two separate matters, unless I'm confused about something; the problem of the former comes first. If Jon's relationship with Stannis is the issue, than the Arya mission is beside the point because it comes after the die is cast. I frankly think the Stannis problem (in regards to the Boltons) was created when he arrived at the wall, making all subsequent decisions in terms of Bolton placation essentially moot. I guess I'm missing what point you are trying to make in terms of what Jon should have done that was ultimately going to change his fate.