R+L=J v. 36

[Arya Targaryen]

Not really. The fact that genes are dominant or recessive does not relate to how often they are passed on to progeny but if a trait becomes manifest or not when different alleles of the gene combine in a new individual, and that again depends not on the traits that either parent displays but on the particular copy they pass on. Cat's auburn hair and blue eyes are both recessive traits, i.e. to become manifest in her, she inherited recessive copies from both her parents, and passes on only recessive copies to her children. Ned, with his darker colouring, possesses at least one dominant copy of the gene but the other can be recessive, inherited from any ancestor up his lineage, so every time the random gene splitting begins, there are three copies of recessive genes versus only one copy of dominant gene entering the lottery. Hence, merely statistically, the majority of his children get the Tully look, even though the trait as such is recessive.

While the rest of what you've written is true, merely statistically it would result in 50-50% Stark and Tully look. Cat definitely passes the recessive alleles (since she only has those), but Ned has 50-50% to pass either the "darker" or the "lighter" gene. So basically the coloring of the the child will depend on Ned. Out of the 5 children only 1 has the "Stark" coloring (Arya), the others look like Tullys, which is not out of the realm of possibilities.

But I doubt that Martin is an expert on genetics, and even if he is, the genetics in Westeros seems to work in a diferent way than IRL. Like the Baratheon dark hair. There is absolutely no guarantee that ALL of Robert's children will have dark hair, if the "blond" gene is there is previous generations as well (and it is, there was a Targ grandma, or something like that). If Robert carries only the "dark" gene (and that is the dominant gene), then he really can have only dark-haired offsprings. But most of his bastards have blond mothers, so THEY can have blond children as well - the dominance of the Baratheon coloring does not mean that there can be no blond Baratheon, ever (according to IRL genetics)

[A Redeemed Hound]

Okay. It's been a while since I posted here but I am bored at work right now...I didn't want to get involved here again until I knew WoW was finished but I can't resist.

I know R+L=J is huge and a very very obvious option as to who Jon's parents are. But what about the fact that Jon shows absolutely no Targaryen traits, physical or otherwise? He does not have the eyes or hair of a Targaryen. He is not obsessed with fire and dragons like a Targaryen. He has no dragon dreams like a Targaryen.

To me, he is all Stark. He is even a warg so he has to have Stark in him. But the other half is not Targaryen IMO. He is all ice and no fire at all. Even his wolf has the look of the old gods that his father/Ned prayed to (all white with red eyes). I believe Ned is his father. As to the mother, I think it can easily be Ashara. It sets up Jon very nicely to weild the Sword of the Morning as its heir. Also, it makes more sense that Ashara kills herself after Ned "betrays" her by taking her son away from her to protect him. Then she truly had nothing to live for.

And then perhaps the offspring of R+L (if there was one that lived) has yet to be seen and is safe with Howland Reed. I don't know but GRRM is very picky with the traits of each family and Jon Snow has not one trait of a Targaryen...but Tyrion sure does :)

[g.o.d]

maybe the blood of the first men is stronger that the Valyrian

if his mother is Ashara then there's no point of hiding it. And as for the Dawn, you don't inherit it, you have to be worthy of wielding it. + I don't think Ned would take Ashara's son from her . He's not that sort of person.

I believe the only reason why Ned hided Jon's mother identity was, that the revelation would threaten Jon's life

[Arya Targaryen]

But what about the fact that Jon shows absolutely no Targaryen traits, physical or otherwise? He does not have the eyes or hair of a Targaryen. He is not obsessed with fire and dragons like a Targaryen. He has no dragon dreams like a Targaryen.

We don't know if he has any Targ traits. Ned never spoke about it, and for obvious reasons, he never thought about that. Nobody else had any reason to compare him to Targs in detail. Not even Tyrion, though I don't know if he had ever been close to Targs to notice any similarity. The lack of obvious similarity does not mean there are no Targ traits at all. And the only person who could have noticed something, and was clever enough to do so, was blind :cool4:

[A Redeemed Hound]

I just think that the R+L=J is too obvious an answer for a GRRM novel.

And we do know that Jon has no Targaryen traits (for now anyway) because up to this point in the story, he has only shown very vivid Stark traits. And in these books so far, dreams and visions are a major contributor and Jon has had none of the Targaryen-type of visions and dreams.

I don't think it is even out of the realm that Jon Snow is the offspring of Lyanna being raped by Robert at this point during a drunken fit. And she then ran off with Rhaegar for protection from her true love. That would certainly require Ned to keep that a secret if his sister did not want Robert to know.

There are quite a few theories and none of them seem to be better than the other. I agree the R+L=J is the most dominant but to me I am not convinced yet.

[Budj]

Jon's eyes are described similarly to Egg's (minus the color) in D&E before you know who Egg really is. I think this is also a slight nod to Jon being a hidden Targaryen. Do not have my nook on me (at work), but it was describing that their eyes were dark, almost black, the difference being Egg has purple Targ eyes and Jon gray Stark eyes.

ETA: And the Jon being Ned and Ashara's is a tough one to work out for the time line. Jon would have been a noticably older baby than Robb.

[g.o.d]

I just think that the R+L=J is too obvious an answer for a GRRM novel.

to be honset I wasn't aware of that since I read it on the internet(after reading the first book, which is full of hints). It's not that obvious as you think

[Arya Targaryen]

And we do know that Jon has no Targaryen traits (for now anyway) because up to this point in the story, he has only shown very vivid Stark traits. And in these books so far, dreams and visions are a major contributor and Jon has had none of the Targaryen-type of visions and dreams.

What do you mean by Targ-type dreams? Targs had profetic dreams, and I can think of two dreams Jon had (and one of them is recurring) - The one with the crypts, that he has to go down, and the other one is of him, standing alone on the top of the Wall, with a burnig sword. No other Starks have had similar dreams that we know of. Bran's dreams were similar, but he is a greenseer, so seeing the future is OK with him as well.

And Jon is not obsessed by dragons, but he thinks about them quite a lot. Fire dragons and ice dragons alike.

[Ygrain]

While the rest of what you've written is true, merely statistically it would result in 50-50% Stark and Tully look. Cat definitely passes the recessive alleles (since she only has those), but Ned has 50-50% to pass either the "darker" or the "lighter" gene. So basically the coloring of the the child will depend on Ned. Out of the 5 children only 1 has the "Stark" coloring (Arya), the others look like Tullys, which is not out of the realm of possibilities.

But I doubt that Martin is an expert on genetics, and even if he is, the genetics in Westeros seems to work in a diferent way than IRL. Like the Baratheon dark hair. There is absolutely no guarantee that ALL of Robert's children will have dark hair, if the "blond" gene is there is previous generations as well (and it is, there was a Targ grandma, or something like that). If Robert carries only the "dark" gene (and that is the dominant gene), then he really can have only dark-haired offsprings. But most of his bastards have blond mothers, so THEY can have blond children as well - the dominance of the Baratheon coloring does not mean that there can be no blond Baratheon, ever (according to IRL genetics)

50 - 50 is the chance for Ned passing a dominant or recessive copy but it's not the chance for the children to inherit his looks. With Cat's homozygous recessive pairing (aa) and Ned's heterozygous (Aa), the possible outcomes are aa, aa, aa, Aa, which is, er, 1:4? (I'm no big on statistics)

GRRM definitely doesn't apply RL genetics because these traits are polygenous and rather unpredictableout, but I'd say he knows his Mendel. IMHO, he twists the genetics when he establishes the "family look" but when it comes to individuals, he does the Punnet squares.

As for Robert, it seems that even though the Targ gene was there earlier in the family, it wasn't passed on him and the offspring he produces seem to be the result of homozygous dominant pairing (AA).

Okay. It's been a while since I posted here but I am bored at work right now...I didn't want to get involved here again until I knew WoW was finished but I can't resist.

I know R+L=J is huge and a very very obvious option as to who Jon's parents are. But what about the fact that Jon shows absolutely no Targaryen traits, physical or otherwise? He does not have the eyes or hair of a Targaryen. He is not obsessed with fire and dragons like a Targaryen. He has no dragon dreams like a Targaryen.

To me, he is all Stark. He is even a warg so he has to have Stark in him. But the other half is not Targaryen IMO. He is all ice and no fire at all. Even his wolf has the look of the old gods that his father/Ned prayed to (all white with red eyes). I believe Ned is his father. As to the mother, I think it can easily be Ashara. It sets up Jon very nicely to weild the Sword of the Morning as its heir. Also, it makes more sense that Ashara kills herself after Ned "betrays" her by taking her son away from her to protect him. Then she truly had nothing to live for.

And then perhaps the offspring of R+L (if there was one that lived) has yet to be seen and is safe with Howland Reed. I don't know but GRRM is very picky with the traits of each family and Jon Snow has not one trait of a Targaryen...but Tyrion sure does :)

I just think that the R+L=J is too obvious an answer for a GRRM novel.

And we do know that Jon has no Targaryen traits (for now anyway) because up to this point in the story, he has only shown very vivid Stark traits. And in these books so far, dreams and visions are a major contributor and Jon has had none of the Targaryen-type of visions and dreams.

I don't think it is even out of the realm that Jon Snow is the offspring of Lyanna being raped by Robert at this point during a drunken fit. And she then ran off with Rhaegar for protection from her true love. That would certainly require Ned to keep that a secret if his sister did not want Robert to know.

There are quite a few theories and none of them seem to be better than the other. I agree the R+L=J is the most dominant but to me I am not convinced yet.

With the length of the human pregnancy nine months, Robert as a father is not an option: the rebellion lasted about a year and Lyanna disappeared even before it all started.

I think you might want to take a look at a comprehensive survey for the R+L but I always forget where the links are, so wait around a little till someone produces them.

[g.o.d]

for example here

http://www.angelfire.com/ma4/mlarchives/faq/jon.html

[MtnLion]

When one considers the timeline, it is very obvious who Jon's mother and father were, but to confirm it we have the Kingsguard vouching for Jon's legitmacy at the tower. To me, GRRM has already spelled it out explicitly, there is not much else that can be said to confirm it. The timeline is that the war started a month or two after Lyanna was taken, and lasted for from nearly a year to a little more. Elia's child conceived at or after Harrenhal's Tourney is 12 months old when King's Landing is sacked. Harrenhal's Tourney preceded the disappearance of Lyanna by at least nine months, perhaps more. We have a time frame of Harrenhal Tourney to King's Landing falling of 24 +/-3 months, based on the children's ages. Robb was a newborn when Cat left Riverrun for Winterfell, and Jon was at Winterfell when she arrived. She may make bad decisions but she is no fool about children's ages when they are merely months apart. Jon is a month or so younger than Robb, else she had nothing to complain about.

[MtnLion]

50 - 50 is the chance for Ned passing a dominant or recessive copy but it's not the chance for the children to inherit his looks. With Cat's homozygous recessive pairing (aa) and Ned's heterozygous (Aa), the possible outcomes are aa, aa, aa, Aa, which is, er, 1:4? (I'm no big on statistics)

Sorry to say, this is how it works:

Aa + aa = Aa, Aa, aa, aa (50%)

Remember that Ned always contributes one portion, that is either A or a, 50%. Cat always contributes one portion, a or a, 100%. So, if Cat and another aa type combine you have 100%, but with Ned she has 50%, and with AA she has 0%, though all will be Aa.

[Jaqen H'gcarl]

Not really. The fact that genes are dominant or recessive does not relate to how often they are passed on to progeny but if a trait becomes manifest or not when different alleles of the gene combine in a new individual, and that again depends not on the traits that either parent displays but on the particular copy they pass on. Cat's auburn hair and blue eyes are both recessive traits, i.e. to become manifest in her, she inherited recessive copies from both her parents, and passes on only recessive copies to her children. Ned, with his darker colouring, possesses at least one dominant copy of the gene but the other can be recessive, inherited from any ancestor up his lineage, so every time the random gene splitting begins, there are three copies of recessive genes versus only one copy of dominant gene entering the lottery. Hence, merely statistically, the majority of his children get the Tully look, even though the trait as such is recessive.

I'm sorry if im totally misinformed on genetics and how they pass on (I thought I paid attention in class :P) but the way I understood it, even if Ned only has a dominant:recessive ratio of 1:4 and Cat a ratio of 0:4 (only recessive). It would still mean that 50% of the Stark children (statistically) would have Stark traits.. Ill show you what I mean in a picture in a second (ill make it myself LOL). Perhaps I'm making genetic scientists turn over in their graves right now.. one minute and ill get it done ;)

Here you go: http://img651.images...iusgenetics.png

The Large S means Dark hair (Starks Dominant trait) and the small s means recessive stark trait.

[Kosh Naranek]

What do you mean by Targ-type dreams? Targs had profetic dreams, and I can think of two dreams Jon had (and one of them is recurring) - The one with the crypts, that he has to go down, and the other one is of him, standing alone on the top of the Wall, with a burnig sword. No other Starks have had similar dreams that we know of. Bran's dreams were similar, but he is a greenseer, so seeing the future is OK with him as well.

And Jon is not obsessed by dragons, but he thinks about them quite a lot. Fire dragons and ice dragons alike.

That would be my question as well. Jon definitely has dreams that are/could be prophetic. He sees Bran's face in a wierwood tree before Bran makes it to Bloodraven. The crypt dream is a recurring event for Jon. Whether the crypt dreams are a form of foreknowledge or an just an outlet for Jon's emotions remains to be seen.

One thing that I personally find telling, and that may not amount to a hill of beans, is Maester Aemon's fondness for Jon. Aemon flat out tells Tyrion in Book 1 that few have called him kind. However, the man that we see in Jon's POVs (and even Sam's) is a kindly gentleman that makes it a point to help Jon at every turn. Why does Aemon take it upon himself to be so kind to one young man when he has seen 100s come and go at the Wall?

[Gi_Varotti]

I think Benjen was refering to his own kids in this quote. Maybe he stayed not as true to his vows as Jon believed. Maybe he has kids and loves a woman, but cannot marry her and stay with her because of his vows.

But anyway I think Benjen at least suspected that Jon was not Ned´s bastard and maybe he even knew R+L. He wa Ned´s brother and knew him very wellI doubt he believed Ned´s story.

Maybe Ned hasn´t told him, but I think Benjen and Lyanna were close and he could have guessed what had happened.

I do also believe that Benjen took the black out of guilt. Either because he borrowed Lyanna his amour, she became the KotLT and met Rhaegar which led to her death. Or because he knew of Lyanna´s plans and maybe even helped her to escape.

^ I agree.

Hey. Just a thought on Jon's appearance and whether that could solidify this theory... Afaik he has no physical Targaryen traits at all? And do we know the appearance of any 'other' Targaryen bastards? Just to make sure if we can say that Targ traits are dominant or recessive. I mean, look at Neds children.. It would seem that it's either 1:4 Stark:Tully or 2:4 counting Jon. Doesnt seem like overly dominant traits.. You'd think that if R+L=J was true, we should be able to see it on Jon? Or what do u guys think

I don't know how Ned's mother & dad were so I'll suppose one was AA and the other Aa, we'd have: AA, Aa, AA, Aa.

Now if Lyanna was the AA and Rhaegar aa, all their kids would be Aa, hence Jon being more Stark than Targaryen in his looks.

Or as Jon Arryn would say "the seed is strong" :)

I think you're reading too much into that. Giving up on a family is a huge deal, even if sex can be had at Mole's Town. And even if he did know, what would "if you knew what it meant" actually mean? Jon's not a trueborn Targaryen, therefore has no claim to the throne. And Robert was king at the time anyway, with three children of his own (so far as anyone knew). Hell, even if Jon himself knew his parentage, all he'd be giving up in going to the wall would be the right to have kids and marry.

Maybe I am. What I meant is what I wrote there, to keep the inheritance going if one looks at the prophecy thing. So in the eyes of Benjen it wouldn't be just a marriage and kids; just my thoughts tho and I can be totally wrong.

And I'm not talking about the throne, I don't care who takes it as long as it's not Jon, he's too cool to sit on that chair and do nothing but hear complains of lands, sheeps or whatever. I want Jon at the Wall and fighting The Others and Wrights!

But if Rhaegar and Lyanna really had a secret marriage then Jon is the king (if you consider Aegon as fake).

[FittleLinger]

Hey. Just a thought on Jon's appearance and whether that could solidify this theory... Afaik he has no physical Targaryen traits at all? And do we know the appearance of any 'other' Targaryen bastards? Just to make sure if we can say that Targ traits are dominant or recessive. I mean, look at Neds children.. It would seem that it's either 1:4 Stark:Tully or 2:4 counting Jon. Doesnt seem like overly dominant traits.. You'd think that if R+L=J was true, we should be able to see it on Jon? Or what do u guys think

We know that ASOIAF genes don't work the same way as in real life, but it would seem that Targ genes seem to be recessive rather than dominant.. Look at the great bastards for example - Aegor - black hair and first men everything except for purple eyes, Bloodraven - unique case (an albino), Shiera Seastar - Lyseny - blond hair, mismatched eyes (non of them purple) and Daemon - full time Targ (cause he is a full time Targ).

What I mean is, it seems that only Targ-Targ kids result in the typical Targ traits (Rhaegar, Dany). And that Jon has neither purple eyes nor silver hair is no evidence whatsoever that he can't be a Targ.

It's a plot device (so we don't suspect - if we knew Jon had purple eyes, we would know from the beginning) and it's not even contrived or deus exed because genetics are not an exact science.

[Arya Targaryen]

One thing that I personally find telling, and that may not amount to a hill of beans, is Maester Aemon's fondness for Jon. Aemon flat out tells Tyrion in Book 1 that few have called him kind. However, the man that we see in Jon's POVs (and even Sam's) is a kindly gentleman that makes it a point to help Jon at every turn. Why does Aemon take it upon himself to be so kind to one young man when he has seen 100s come and go at the Wall?

Aemon liked Jon, but he didn't know he is Rhaegars son (if he knew, I doubt he had agreed to go south with Sam, he would have wanted to stay with Jon). To make him totally unawar, but the most intelligent person at the same time, he HAD to be blind, so he had no chance whatsoever (plotwise) to guess Jon's parentage. And I had the feeling Aemon became interested in (and impressed by) Jon when he visited him and tried to persuade him to take Sam as his steward.

I'm sorry if im totally misinformed on genetics and how they pass on (I thought I paid attention in class :P) but the way I understood it, even if Ned only has a dominant:recessive ratio of 1:4 and Cat a ratio of 0:4 (only recessive). It would still mean that 50% of the Stark children (statistically) would have Stark traits.. Ill show you what I mean in a picture in a second (ill make it myself LOL). Perhaps I'm making genetic scientists turn over in their graves right now.. one minute and ill get it done ;)

Thew main problem with applying genetic rules here is that the coloring or the "Stark" or whatever traits are not inherited with only one (=dominant/recessive) gene, but is the result of multiple genes that can interact each other and be passed on separately as well, making the whole thing much more difficult to guess.

[Kosh Naranek]

Oh, I don't think Aemon knew anything. I just thought it was a nudge to the readers that Aemon was so nice to Jon.

I personally believe that Benjen knew about Jon. If Ned told anyone, I think it would be Benjen.

[Jon Icefyre]

We know that ASOIAF genes don't work the same way as in real life, but it would seem that Targ genes seem to be recessive rather than dominant.. Look at the great bastards for example - Aegor - black hair and first men everything except for purple eyes, Bloodraven - unique case (an albino), Shiera Seastar - Lyseny - blond hair, mismatched eyes (non of them purple) and Daemon - full time Targ (cause he is a full time Targ).

What I mean is, it seems that only Targ-Targ kids result in the typical Targ traits (Rhaegar, Dany). And that Jon has neither purple eyes nor silver hair is no evidence whatsoever that he can't be a Targ.

It's a plot device (so we don't suspect - if we knew Jon had purple eyes, we would know from the beginning) and it's not even contrived or deus exed because genetics are not an exact science.

Thank you! I don't get why this is so hard to understand? Rhaegar's daughter Rhaenys had none of Rhaegars targ traits whatsoever all her traits came from her mother Elia's Dornish side. So there's precedence right there that Rhaegar(the man we're arguing about being Jon's father) already had a confirmed kid that didn't have his traits, yet somehow people are still arguing that it would be almost impossible for Jon not to have Rhaegar's hair or eyes, and that logic just doesn't make sense at all sorry. The fact is if Rhaegar already had one kid that didn't have his traits then the same could be possible for Jon.

[FittleLinger]

Thank you! I don't get why this is so hard to understand? Rhaegar's daughter Rhaenys had none of Rhaegars targ traits whatsoever all her traits came from her mother Elia's Dornish side. So there's precedence right there that Rhaegar(the man we're arguing about being Jon's father) already has a confirmed kid that doesn't have his traits, yet somehow people are still arguing that it would be almost impossible for Jon not to have Rhaegar's hair or eyes, and that logic just doesn't make sense at all sorry. The fact is if Rhaegar already had one kid that didn't have his traits then the same could be possible for Jon.

Yes, your example is even better. We have the precedent of Rhaegar himself having a child with a dark-haired dark-eyed woman and the child had only her traits. Now, people may say that they couldn't have known from the beginning what traits the baby will develop, so what would they do if it actually had Rhaegar's. I believe the answer to that is - that's why they put up the Ned and Ashara rumor - Daynes are known for Valyrian traits, so if the child had them, they could account them to Ashara.