Theories you simply don't believe

[Eira Seren]

I don't believe that Varys/Illyrio are Blackfyre loyalists. I think Aegon's a fake, but their plan isn't going to be down to them wanting to restore the Blackfyres. I think this because when I came onto these forums after reading all the books, I saw all these theories and my first thought was "what the hell is a blackfyre?" They are a tiny bit of background history, barely mentioned or explored in the series. Having that backstory play such a big role in the endgame/final battles would be extremely jarring and confusing to anyone who doesn't regularly visit ASOIAF forums.

Also:

- Syrio is not Jaquen, or a FM, or alive. He died in KL, end of story.

- Nobody apart from Jon has any secret parentage.

-- DEFINITELY nobody else is a secret Targaryen.

- Jeyne is not pregnant.

i see what you're saying, but do you think it's possible that the seeds for it might already be planted? i ask because we have characters like tyrion, who are bookish and have green/blue eyes, just like one of targaryen predecessors (sheira seastar). and then we have bloodraven, who seems to have insinuated himself into some rather important facets of this story, and he opposed the blackfyres.

and honestly, if things like r+l=j turn out to be true, much of the groundwork for all of that is laid by references to the rebellion and the tourney of harrenhall. it wasn't until i understood what happened during Robert's rebellion that i was able to start really putting stuff together. but again, i had the same reaction you did to the blackfyres. GRRM really makes us do quite a bit of our homework.

[western wolf]

I agree with "The Voids" post cited above.

[RenlyIsNotRight]

• Any of the secret parentage theories aside from Jon.
  
• The North will not betray Stannis after he deposes Bolton. They might sue for independence when/if he dies, but not before.
  
• Bran didn't eat Jojen.
  
• Mance = Rhaegar (...really?)
  
• Any of the stuff about stone dragons or ice dragons or blahblahblah
  

However, anyone who doesn't think Greatjon Umber isn't Azor Ahai Reborn is just flat out wrong.

[Old-Growth]

I don't believe Mirri's prophecy is... well... a prophecy.

Amen....

[Myrish Swamp Thing]

However, anyone who doesn't think Greatjon Umber isn't Azor Ahai Reborn is just flat out wrong.

The three heads of the dragon are the Greatjon, Tormund and Strong Belwas.

[RenlyIsNotRight]

The three heads of the dragon are the Greatjon, Tormund and Strong Belwas.

Agreed on Greatjon and Tormund but I had my money more on the third head being Darkstar personally.

[Eira Seren]

Agreed on Greatjon and Tormund but I had my money more on the third head being Darkstar personally.

there's a joke about Tormund's member in here somewhere. . . .

[rmholt]

Also: Jojen paste

that Margery Tyrell is a virgin

that anyone other than jamie or tyrion is the volonquar

that jaime and cersei are targaryens

that 3EC is the great other/ the COF are evil

that any of Syrio, Ned, Rhaegar, Robb are still alive

that Robb has a hidden baby heir somewhere

that dany is AA

I do think Margaery is a virgin and that she got the Moon Tea to mess with Cersei. There was mention of horseback riding removing the hymen. Cersei knows this and doesnt care - she just cares about what the people in judgment will think. Renly had it on for Loras. I also think her Moon Tea plan has backfired. I realize I am in the realm near crockpottery.

I also dont think there is a chance in hell that Jaime is the valonqar without his other hand and with his character development. There are too many little brothers to even speculate on who the valonqar is.

The rest I agree with

[James Arryn]

The three heads of the dragon are the Greatjon, Tormund and Strong Belwas.

I count 4 there.

[northernshe-wolf]

That Aerys is the father of any of Tywin's children, Jojenpaste (too sad to believe), and that Coldhands is Benjen Stark.

[Stannis Gotta Stan]

R+L= J... theres evidence for it but I'm hoping its not true, all these targs coming out of the woodwork is eye roll worthy.

[Full-Faced Braavosi]

I don't believe that Varys/Illyrio are Blackfyre loyalists. I think Aegon's a fake, but their plan isn't going to be down to them wanting to restore the Blackfyres. I think this because when I came onto these forums after reading all the books, I saw all these theories and my first thought was "what the hell is a blackfyre?" They are a tiny bit of background history, barely mentioned or explored in the series. Having that backstory play such a big role in the endgame/final battles would be extremely jarring and confusing to anyone who doesn't regularly visit ASOIAF forums.

Also:

- Syrio is not Jaquen, or a FM, or alive. He died in KL, end of story.

- Nobody apart from Jon has any secret parentage.

-- DEFINITELY nobody else is a secret Targaryen.

- Jeyne is not pregnant.

As someone else said, when I say I do or do not believe something, it does not mean I consider something fact or impossible, but just where my intuition leads me at present moment. I strongly believe R + L = J, and am highly curious about Varys/Sera/Aegon = Blackfyres, but I would not tell someone they are right or wrong about any of these theories.

For me:

-I don't believe Syrio is dead.

The main reason I believe this is that it was my immediate reaction when I first finished that chapter (or rather when Arya runs from the room). I go no further, connecting him to Jaqen or the FM (intriguing theory, but I'd rather believe in both characters existing), but only state that he escaped his battle with Trant. I've seen some arguments as to why he is alive (parsing Cersei's mention of him in the aftermath), but I really I think there is very little evidence one way or the other.

I lean towards alive for non-evience based reason, which is that GRRM wants you to infer his death. From what I can recall, whenever characters are mentioned as dead by others or the writing implies it without it ever being explicitly stated and shown, they actually end up being alive - examples: Bran from his fall, Bran/Rickon by Theon's hand, Sansa/Arya considered by many people after ned's execution, Theon, The Hound (we believe), Loras (kind of, we're supposed to consider him good as dead... and yet he hasn't died yet), The Mountain (in the he's reanimated as Ser Robert way, we think), Davos, Catelyn (kind of - while she actually did die, it is only inferred from her POV, and lo and behold, she's reanimated), JON (yeah, he's not dead, we all know it... he blacked out, warged into ghost, went direwolf on erryone.), etc. Obviously Syrio wasn't that important of a character (yet!) and it was Arya's POV not his, but why not mention him actually dying...?

(Also, in regards to him possibly surviving, we assume he is a great warrior as former 1st Sword of Braavos, he wrecks those guardsmen with a wooden sword, AND we have seen a mostly unarmored Bronn dispatch a fully armored knight in the Eyrie.)

[Vargo Hoat's Teddy Bear]

Its a theory that states Tyrek was kidnapped by Varys during the KL riot and that Varys is keeping him so he will eventually be made Warden of the East.

east?

[YouSnowNothing]

Yeah, well, but that's their problem, not ours, who have read them, and certainly not author's. There are quite a few hints that may lead to such a conclusion in ASOIAF books alone as well.

GRRM can't introduce a major plot element that requires outside reading to comprehend. It's most definitely the author's problem if the vast majority of his readership have no idea what's going on in his books. He can hardly say "tough titties, go read the expanded universe". The EU books are great for just that - expanding the universe, but the main series should be able to stand on its own and not require extra information.

You are right that the main evidence for Varys being a Blackfyre are in the Mystery Knight, but there are hints in the ASOIAF books. Comments on the blackfyre rebellion, refernces to dragons black and red, contracts signed with blood e.t.c..The D&E simply give more details on the subject. In general there are several hints in Dunk's stories. Not to mention that an important character from Mystery Knight appears in DWD and there are hints that might connect Bran's vision with Dunk. So far, Varys' motives remain a mystery and there is a possibility that he is not even a Blackfyre but rather a descendant of Aerion Targaryen. In any case, he is a very intriguing character that we know very little about.

i see what you're saying, but do you think it's possible that the seeds for it might already be planted? i ask because we have characters like tyrion, who are bookish and have green/blue eyes, just like one of targaryen predecessors (sheira seastar). and then we have bloodraven, who seems to have insinuated himself into some rather important facets of this story, and he opposed the blackfyres.

The thing is, none of these hints in the main series actually work as hints on there own. They're references to the D&E stories. Dragons black and red, blood contracts, green/blue eyes - without the extra books, there's not any relevance or relationship between them.

and honestly, if things like r+l=j turn out to be true, much of the groundwork for all of that is laid by references to the rebellion and the tourney of harrenhall. it wasn't until i understood what happened during Robert's rebellion that i was able to start really putting stuff together. but again, i had the same reaction you did to the blackfyres. GRRM really makes us do quite a bit of our homework.

But the difference for me is that all the evidence for R+L=J is in the main series. You can put everything together using them alone.

Also, all the aspects of R+L=J are instantly recognisable. We know who Rhaegar and Lyanna are, they've been framed as people of importance to the main story since the first book. Their actions in sparking Robert's Rebellion, and the events of the Tourney, makes them relevant already. And so if R+L=J is revealed in the next book, casual readers aren't going to be saying "Wait, who's Lyanna?" or "What's the Tourney of Harrenhall?". It's entirely understandable with no extra information. But if "Varys/Illyrio/Aegon is a Blackfyre/Varys' main objective is restoring Blackfyres" is revealed in the next book, most readers would be stumped as to who or what the Blackfyres were. A lot of infodumping on the background of the Blackfyre would be required, which would feel extremely strange so late in the story.

[Danelle]

GRRM can't introduce a major plot element that requires outside reading to comprehend. It's most definitely the author's problem if the vast majority of his readership have no idea what's going on in his books. He can hardly say "tough titties, go read the expanded universe". The EU books are great for just that - expanding the universe, but the main series should be able to stand on its own and not require extra information.

The thing is, none of these hints in the main series actually work as hints on there own. They're references to the D&E stories. Dragons black and red, blood contracts, green/blue eyes - without the extra books, there's not any relevance or relationship between them.

But the difference for me is that all the evidence for R+L=J is in the main series. You can put everything together using them alone.

Also, all the aspects of R+L=J are instantly recognisable. We know who Rhaegar and Lyanna are, they've been framed as people of importance to the main story since the first book. Their actions in sparking Robert's Rebellion, and the events of the Tourney, makes them relevant already. And so if R+L=J is revealed in the next book, casual readers aren't going to be saying "Wait, who's Lyanna?" or "What's the Tourney of Harrenhall?". It's entirely understandable with no extra information. But if "Varys/Illyrio/Aegon is a Blackfyre/Varys' main objective is restoring Blackfyres" is revealed in the next book, most readers would be stumped as to who or what the Blackfyres were. A lot of infodumping on the background of the Blackfyre would be required, which would feel extremely strange so late in the story.

The difference between Jon is Rhaegar's son theory and Varys is associated with Blackfyres is that Robert's rebellion took place almost fifteen years before GOT. Although I think that there is truth to that theory, there aren't that many clues. Mostly the promise that Ned gave, his secrecy regarding Jon's mother and several hints, such as the blue rose on a wall, Jon's dream, the possibility of a Targaryen not to have silver hair and purple eyes e.t.c..We don't really know who Rhaegar and Lyanna were. All we get are the recollections from other people, Viserys, Robert, Ned, Jaime, Cersei, Barristan and Roose. In fact although there is a strong possibility of Lyanna eloping with Rhaegar, officially Rhaegar abducted her against her will. What we know about them is quite vague. We know very little about Aerys as well. It isn't until DWD that we are told about him and Joanna Lannister. In SOS Jaime mentions the last years of his reign but this is it. Yet Aerys casts a long shadow. As for the Blackfyre, the main references in the ASOIAF books are:

• Cat using them as an example of how bastards can turn against the trueborn heirs to Robb, trying to warn him against Jon Snow. This is simply a reference, an obscure comment and definately not a hint that there is another attempt by the Blackfyres to take the throne.
  
• Barristan Selmy's page on the White Book, where amongst his accomplishments the killing of Maelys the Monstrous is mentioned. In fact, Barristan, as a KG knight, has the honour of extinguishing the Blackfyre House on the male line. Which means that there are female Blackfyres. But this alone is not a solid argument. Just because male Blackfyre were dead but girls survived, it doesn't mean that for that reason alone, there is a Blackfyre plot to take the throne.
  
• Brienne in FFC:

  
  Later it passed to a crippled knight named Long Jon Heddle, who took up ironworking when he grew too old to fight. He forged a new sign for the yard, a three-headed dragon of black iron that he hung from a wooden post. The beast was so big it had to be made in a dozen pieces, joined with rope and wire. When the wind blew it would clank and clatter, so the inn became known far and wide as the Clanking Dragon.”
  “Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.
  “No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust. The innkeep never hung another sign, so men forgot the dragon and took to cal ing the place the River Inn.
  

  Not evindence but a brief account of the Blackfyre rebellion and that the black dragon is their sigil.
  
• 
  Then, Illyrio Mopatis tells Tyrion Lannister, the same man that Varys helped in escaping and killing Tywin Lannister, Varys' greatest adversary, the following:

  If truth be told, I did not think Daenerys would survive for long amongst the horselords."

  I had heard the Golden Company was under contract with one of the Free Cities."
  "Myr." Illyrio smirked. "Contracts can be broken."
  "There is more coin in cheese than I knew," said Tyrion. "How did you accomplish that?"
  The magister waggled his fat fingers. "Some contracts are writ in ink, and some in blood. I say no more."
  

  The dwarf pondered that. The Golden Company was reputedly the finest of the free companies, founded a century ago by Bittersteel, a bastard son of Aegon the Unworthy. When another of Aegon's Great Bastards tried to seize the Iron Throne from his trueborn half-brother, Bittersteel joined the revolt. Daemon Blackfyre had perished on the Redgrass Field, however, and his rebellion with him. Those followers of the Black Dragon who survived the battle yet refused to bend the knee fled across the narrow sea, among them Daemon's younger sons, Bittersteel, and hundreds of landless lords and knights who soon found themselves forced to sell their swords to eat. Some joined the Ragged Standard, some the Second Sons or Maiden's Men. Bittersteel saw the strength of House Blackfyre scattering to the four winds, so he formed the Golden Company to bind the exiles together. From that day to this, the men of the Golden Company had lived and died in the Disputed Lands, fighting for Myr or Lys or Tyrosh in their pointless little wars, and dreaming of the land their fathers had lost. They were exiles and sons of exiles, dispossessed and unforgiven … yet formidable fighters still.

• 
  And then Jon Con describing the GV and the skulls of their leaders:

  On his deathbed, Ser Aegor Rivers had famously commanded his men to boil the flesh from his skull, dip it in gold, and carry it before them when they crossed the sea to retake Westeros. His successors had followed his example.

I believe that there is enough information for someone to think that Varys is somehow involved with the Blackfyres against the Targaryens. Not to mention that he is partly responsible for Aerys' paranoia and it was him who warned him against Rhaegar and told him that the prince was planning a coup d'etat at Harrenhal. ASOIAF books do not offer details about the Blackfyres but they give enough information as to question Varys's motives and make the reader think about the reasons behind his actions.

You may not agree with the theory and think that it is all based on speculation but I think that the Blackfyres are mentioned several times, especially in DWD. One does not need to have read about Dunk in order to understand the thoery.

[They see me R'hollin]

I honestly don't believe L+R=J, I think it's too predictable at this stage. Plus, if it's true the Lyanna was a raging idiot. To run off with a married prince then have a child. Surely she would have known that it would cause some sort or conflict between her own noble house, the Baratheons and the Targaryens. Even if she were in love with Rhaegar surely she would KNOW better. Plus, wasn't Rhaegar smart and honourable as hell too? It doesn't seem likely that the two of them would pull that. Plus, if Ned knew that Jon was Lyanna's bastard then maybe he would've told Cat so Jon would've had a less cold upbringing from her.

I don't believe Aerys fathered any of Joanna's children.

Syrio Forrel is dead.

Varys isn't stockpiling heirs.

Rhaegar isn't alive. But Aegon isn't fake.

[Full-Faced Braavosi]

I honestly don't believe L+R=J, I think it's too predictable at this stage. Plus, if it's true the Lyanna was a raging idiot. To run off with a married prince then have a child. Surely she would have known that it would cause some sort or conflict between her own noble house, the Baratheons and the Targaryens. Even if she were in love with Rhaegar surely she would KNOW better. Plus, wasn't Rhaegar smart and honourable as hell too? It doesn't seem likely that the two of them would pull that. Plus, if Ned knew that Jon was Lyanna's bastard then maybe he would've told Cat so Jon would've had a less cold upbringing from her.

I don't believe Aerys fathered any of Joanna's children.

Syrio Forrel is dead.

Varys isn't stockpiling heirs.

Rhaegar isn't alive. But Aegon isn't fake.

Well she was like 13-14 years old. I know the kids mature fast in ASOIAF, but is it that crazy to believe a 14-year old girl would become infatuated with the greatest prince ever and do something rash like run off with him. On top of that, she is betrothed to a man she doesn't feel comfortable with (in that she knows he'll be sleeping around for their entire marriage).

Yes, Rhaegar is described as smart and honorable and all that. Given that we know (as far as that is possible) that Lyanna and Rhaegar were together, which is the more plausible explanation then: they were in love and eloped or Rhaegar kidnapped and raped her? I'd say the latter is less honorable.

He might've told Cat, a fair point, but perhaps he didn't want anyone questioning why Cat was so okay with his shameful bastard living with them. He does say he has sacrificed much in his life (i.e. in the RLJ theory, his relationship with Cat for the protection of his nephew Jon).

Are you saying you don't believe those final three statements (that Syrio is dead), or that you consider those true?

[GhostCR]

3. That Arthur Dayne (or any of the KG present) didn't die at the Tower of Joy.

Not sure about this one. While I was reading the books, every time GRRM mentioned any of the KGs (Connington, Dayne or others...) I would think... "why?, what's the point of talking about them at all when we have an already crowded world of current characters?" As I kept reading, I noticed that particularly Arthur Dayne was mentioned in every single book (I went back and checked this), and throughout the series he was mentioned by different characters: Ned, Jamie, Barristan Selmy, Bran, Darkstar...

My gut feeling, even before Connington reappeared, was that there had to something there. I don't know what. Maybe I'm wrong and he is just a distraction (to surprise us with Connington's return) or a symbol of the past times, just to set a frame of reference of how things changed...

[Ran]

The "something" is that Ser Arthur Dayne represents an ideal of chivalry and honor that the world, fallen lower since Aerys's mad reign came to an end, can no longer reach. He's a touchstone for Ned and Jaime, because of this.

[The Red Pope]

That Coldhands is the Night's King (who isn't even confirmed to have existed) or someone else who died ages ago. Wights decay and rot, he can't have died more than a couple years ago at most.