R+L=J v.43

[sabrecmc]

I do agree that it makes sense that the KG would have had an evacuation plan, so to speak, for Lyanna and Jon. But, events could have transpired that made that far more difficult in reality.

I have no textual evidence to support it(and since all of this is meant to be a mystery anyway, we probably won't for awhile), but I would not be surprised if it turns out that Lyanna's pregnancy meant she could not be moved without risking her and the baby. My secretary is out on 2 months bedrest pre-delivery date because she was having contractions. She is 22 and in great health. So, maybe it will turn out that Lyanna couldn't be moved so easily to make an escape once the KG at the TOJ learned what had happened to Aerys and Rhaegar(assuming they knew...they didn't seem shocked in Ned's dream).

As to why not make a break for it with infant King Jon...Well, Lyanna is very sick and in no condition to travel. So now the KG is faced with the choice of flee with newborn and whatever wetnurse they can find or stand their ground against 7 not quite awesome knights. I don't know how many that post here have been around a newborn infant...Keeping in mind that a newborn needs to feed every couple of hours and how doubtful it would be that a wetnurse would be able to gallop at top speed while nursing an infant...well, it isn't crazy to me that they would decide to stand their ground against Ned's forces. And they did almost win, after all. Many speculate that Howland Reed used poison darts or something to defeat Dayne, so maybe not quite the kind of battle the KG were thinking when Honorable Ned was approaching. It is obviously all speculation at this point.

I admit that while I caught R+L=J on first read, I thought he was their bastard. It did not occur to me until reading here that he could be legit. I'm not as totally convinced of that as I am of his parentage, but the KG's actions and Completely Not Random Septon Meribald, all the king references to Jon...I'm 90% convinced now, lol.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

We know that during RR the war didn’t reach Dorne but the Martells couldn’t have known this in advance so I guess they must had been prepared. It seems that the Prince’s Pass is a secure place in Dorne for the army to gather secretly. If that’s the case it’s not such a good place to hide, not to mention that it’s in Dorne…. what would have happened to Lyanna and her child if the Martells had found them first?

The best answer to this is that we know the Dornish were prepared, but their forces actually left Dorne to take part in the Battle of the Trident. From the wiki:

King Aerys had gracelessly reminded the Martells that Princess Elia was in his power and dispatched her uncle, Prince Lewyn Martell of the Kingsguard, to assume command of 10,000 Dornish troops marching up the Kingsroad, and joined them to Rhaegar's royalist army enroute to the Trident.

Marching up the Kingsroad indicates the army came via the Boneway. Since the Martells were (reluctantly) supporting Aerys, I don't see any reason why they would have had a second army in the Prince's Pass. The main action of the war was taking place well to the north and Storm's End (the only rebel stronghold in the south) was sewn up by the Lords of the Reach who were also Targ supporters. They had nothing to defend against in that area and every reason to send all available forces (the host led by Prince Lewyn) north to aid the Targaryen cause.

[Cendres]

If R+L=J hold is there a theory about a Targaryen name for Jon? I can understand the name Jon coming from Eddard but not so much from Lyanna.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

Let's start with Ashara, because you were very specific on that point. If Ashara is Jon's mother, there is absolutely no reason for Ned to not tell Jon when Jon leaves for the Wall, or earlier. The same is true for Catelyn. If Ashara is Jon's mother, then Ned's thoughts about some secrets being to dangerous to reveal to those you loved ring hollow.

Now, back to my initial point. When Bob the Blob arrives at Winterfell where is Jon? He is as far away from Bob the Blob as possible. The feast even irks Jon by having him excluded, does it not. Why, if Ned loves Jon so much (and we seem to agree on this point) would Ned go out of his way to make sure that Bob doesn't get a closeup look at Jon?

Ned would not tell Jon or Cat about Ashara because he is honoring her memory. The memory or honor of a dead woman may not mean much to you, but I suggest it means something to Ned.

As for Jon and King Robert at Winterfell, why don't you take what the book says at face value? Having Jon at the feast could be an insult against Cersei. Because bastards are not invited to formal affairs or presented in society. As much as you say that Ned treated Jon different, here is one more case of him being treated the same as other bastards in Westeros.

I completely disagree. There are three of the most honorable men in the world, vouched for by the most honorable point of view that we get, who gave up their lives to protect Jon, which can only be because Rhaegar and Lyanna married. Now, if you are waiting for Jon to directly know this before you concede, we have a wait, yet. But, even then you may go into denial, and say that it is unreliable narrator.

This is not direct evidence. There is nothing in the text that says they gave up their lives to defend Jon. You're using circular reasoning, assuming that R+L=J is true to find direct evidence in the text which PROVES that R+L=J is true.

The blue flower in the Wall? If Jon is the son of Lyanna, then you have a connection, if not, what is it then? the dangerous secrets again - sorry but your interpretation that withholding the truth about her involvement with Rhaegar is somehow dangerous fourteen years later is rather inconvincing. "Bed of blood", i.e. birthing bed, in which Lyanna was lying - where's the child then? You may offer a reasonable explanation for some of the textual clues but not for all of them in their entirety, and that makes sense only if Jon is R+L.

The connection is what, that because Lyanna likes blue flowers, and Dany saw in a vision a blue flower in the wall, then Jon msy be Lyanna's son? That's pushing it. Why not take it as part of romantic imagery, where the blue flower stands for love, romance, or inspiration? Maybe Jon is going to be the inspiration for the fight against the others. Maybe Jon is going to be Dany's love or romance. There are other alternatives than to assume that it is supposed to connect Jon to Lyanna.

I am working on a narrative for an alternative to R+L=J, I don't know if I'll ever finish it though. We'll see.

Lyanna's involvement with Rhaegar is arguably just as dangerous as Jon's identity. It's been 14 years and Robert hasn't made a move against the Targaeryan children. If at the beginning of GoT, Robert HAD spotted Jon, and through a flash of divine inspiration realized that he was Lyanna and Rhaegar's child, do you realistically expect that Robert would order him killed? I do not.

As for the bed of blood, it is used in the story only one other time which happens to refer to a child birth. I don't see this as being a grand slam, "bed of blood always means child birth." To me, this is an example of the group think which surrounds R+L=J. So many people have convinced themselves that it is true that they make leaps of logic to find evidence to support it. It could just be an artistic way for GRRM to describe the scene. Maybe she was sick. Maybe Rhaegar actually abused her. Maybe the KG's orders were to kill her if Ned Stark or Robert showed up. For all the "honor" of the KG, as Jaime says, they did nothing to prevent the cruelty of the mad king. Perhaps, like Joffrey's KG, they were complicit in it as well?

Meeting Ned prior the Rebellion (lasting for about a year) doesn't fit in the timeframe for Jon to be born within a month since the Sack, not to mention that this would be prior Ned married Catelyn and he would have no reason to say that he "dishonoured himself AND Catelyn", or to claim that Jon is younger than Robb, or to lie to Robert about who the mother was.

Travelling with seven companions over the land split with civil war while you are second in command to the rebelling party is not exactly safe.

At this point, the civil war is pretty much over. Ned, presumably, just came from Storm's End where he ended the siege and sent home the last army loyal to the Targaeryans. He is probably not in any real danger.

As for acting dishonorably. Well, having sex with a high born girl out of wedlock would be dishonorable for Ned. As for Cat, do we know when they were betrothed? Had their wedding been arranged while he was still in the Vale? If he were already betrothed, then his having one last night with Ashara could be seen as a betrayal. Now, these are not slam dunk theories, I admit. Barristan seems to think that Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. As we learn more about that, it might very well cast a new light on the situation. As I said, I don't know who the mother is, but I was leaning towards Ashara.

I forgot who said it, but they mentioned the quote about whether Ned and Cat's conversation about Jon/Ashara. Here is the quote,

“Never ask me about Jon,” he said, cold as ice. “He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady.” She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne’s name was never heard in Winterfell again.

There are two ways to read this. Yes, he says never to ask about Jon. But he also demands to know how Cat learned that name. More importantly, it ends with "Ashara Dayne's name was never head in Winterfell again." It doesn't say that speculation about Jon's mother ended.

[sabrecmc]

Wasn't there a link posted in one of the older versions of this thread to an interview with Sean Bean where he all but confirmed that he was told Ned wasn't Jon's dad? I want to say it was a Deadspin article. My memory may be faulty on what exactly he said, but that was my impression. Not that this would be 100%correct, necessarily, but I recall reading it at the time and thinking, well, they obviously told him how to play it. Can anyone dig that up?

[FittleLinger]

If R+L=J hold is there a theory about a Targaryen name for Jon? I can understand the name Jon coming from Eddard but not so much from Lyanna.

There is something like a theory. In my opinion Rhaegar thought he would have a girl and would name her Vysenia. His other two children are Rhaenys and Aegon, and only Vysenia remains to recreate the original Aegon the conquerer and his sisters (for whatever reason).

If this doesn't make sense to you, we simply have nothing else to speculate about an eventual other chosen name for Jon.

[Budj]

If R+L=J hold is there a theory about a Targaryen name for Jon? I can understand the name Jon coming from Eddard but not so much from Lyanna.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/82734-should-jon-change-his-name/

I'm partial to Aemon, but here is the latest thread of many that discuss a potential Targ name for Jon.

[Jon Icefyre]

Personally what I find odd is the fight itself. Did the 3 KG really believe that Ned would hurt Lyanna or the baby? Did they really believe that he would endanger them by betraying them to Robert? This course of action doesn’t seem logical. As I see it they should try and reason with Ned and learn his intentions because they had better chances protecting their king with Ned as an ally. Staying there waiting for only god knows who or how many and expecting to defeat them doesn’t seem right.

The answer to this is pretty simple. Robert was now on the throne and giving Jon to Ned just seemed too risky, just because Ned wouldn't betray the kg doesn't mean Robert wouldn't find out Jon's identity somehow, and Ned being Robert's best friend probably meant he was going to be the one closest to Robert in the kg's POV therefore giving Robert a lot of access to Jon. Even if they knew Ned wouldn't kill Jon it still doesn't change the fact that it would have been pretty obvious for the kg to see that Ned wouldn't have started another war to Usurp Robert right after they just finished a rebellion to usurp Aerys, therefore the Kg weren't about to hand over their king to someone who had no intention of placing him on the throne. The kg had no intention of serving Robert whatsoever all their loyalty was toward's Jon, and they had no intention of seeing their king raised as a bastard of Ned's at Winterfell, so even if they sat down and tried to reason with Ned on peaceful terms a fight was inevitable. Jon was the true king in their eyes and they weren't gonna be satisfied with any other result but him(Jon) sitting on the Irone Throne, and to the kg that was something worth killing and dying for.

[Alia of the knife]

The real meaning of the blue rose:

"Much like its mysterious origin, the blue rose means mystery. An appreciation for the enigmatic, the inexplicable is expressed by the blue rose. A tantalizing vision that cannot be totally pinned down, a mystery that cannot be fully unraveled is the blue rose. A person who receives the blue rose is the subject of much speculation and thought. A complex personality that does not allow easy interpretation is what the blue rose indicates."

"Another meaning of the blue rose is that it symbolizes the impossible, or the unattainable. Since the blue rose itself is a rarity in nature, it stands for something that is hardly within one's grasp, an object that seems too difficult to be achieved. Thus the blue rose is admired and revered as an unrealizable dream.

The blue rose being in itself something very extraordinary expresses that very same feeling. "You are extraordinarily wonderful", the blue rose exclaims. A truly wonderful personality, almost chimera-like is what the blue rose says about the receiver. A flight of fancy, an irrepressible imagination is what the blue rose is all about."

- "Rose Colors and their Meanings."

I would say this is the perfect symbol for Lyanna, and Rhaegars impression of her.

This could be deliberate on Martins part, or it could simply be that the color blue in art and imagry was the best color to symbolize both Lyanna and the North, but since Martin is fond of double entendre's it could be both.

I think it has to be remembered though that while life is not always a song, it's not always a tragedy, but one has to have the other for balance, so I look for a bittersweet ending from Martin.

But, the blue flower in the wall I think is a pretty deliberate nod to Jon and his link to Lyanna/Rhaegar and the Harrenhal event- a symbol to Dany who Jon might really be.

Also, no one ever said that Martin wasn't a romantic- he is, however, he is more realistic about where this sometimes leads, and the good guy may not always win, and the beautiful girl might actually die.

[Ygrain]

Ned would not tell Jon or Cat about Ashara because he is honoring her memory. The memory or honor of a dead woman may not mean much to you, but I suggest it means something to Ned.

I would be inclined to agree if not knowing his mother’s name wasn’t causing Jon such a trauma, and Ned would have had to be totally blind not to be aware of that. I would also say that it seems very much out of character for Ned not to own his faults and not be open, if just between the two of them, about it to Jon.

The connection is what, that because Lyanna likes blue flowers, and Dany saw in a vision a blue flower in the wall, then Jon msy be Lyanna's son? That's pushing it. Why not take it as part of romantic imagery, where the blue flower stands for love, romance, or inspiration? Maybe Jon is going to be the inspiration for the fight against the others. Maybe Jon is going to be Dany's love or romance. There are other alternatives than to assume that it is supposed to connect Jon to Lyanna.

And you’re basing this imagery on what? When and where in the books is any blue flower associated with love, romance or inspiration? The only and sole case when a blue flower turns up it’s always in connection with Lyanna, no other.

Lyanna's involvement with Rhaegar is arguably just as dangerous as Jon's identity. It's been 14 years and Robert hasn't made a move against the Targaeryan children. If at the beginning of GoT, Robert HAD spotted Jon, and through a flash of divine inspiration realized that he was Lyanna and Rhaegar's child, do you realistically expect that Robert would order him killed? I do not.

A little correction: Jon is not merely a Targaryen child, he’s a child of Rhaegar. The one whom Robert hates And, by harbouring Jon, Ned is effectively committing treason – that is the real danger, not the huge embarrassment that Lyanna’s willing participation would have been.

As for the bed of blood, it is used in the story only one other time which happens to refer to a child birth. I don't see this as being a grand slam, "bed of blood always means child birth." To me, this is an example of the group think which surrounds R+L=J. So many people have convinced themselves that it is true that they make leaps of logic to find evidence to support it. It could just be an artistic way for GRRM to describe the scene. Maybe she was sick. Maybe Rhaegar actually abused her. Maybe the KG's orders were to kill her if Ned Stark or Robert showed up. For all the "honor" of the KG, as Jaime says, they did nothing to prevent the cruelty of the mad king. Perhaps, like Joffrey's KG, they were complicit in it as well?

Ah. So, Ned thinks highly about Dayne who was complicit in abusing his sister and who, despite being good with sword, botched the attempt to kill her off so badly that she lived long enough to develop fever? OPr that Lyanna was still bleeding from abuse that Rhaegar inflicted on her months later after he had left? Give me a break.

"men do battle of the field of war and women do battle in the bed of blood“ (Randyll Tarly)

“That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain.” (Damphair)

But yeah, totally a coincidence and a leap of logic.

At this point, the civil war is pretty much over. Ned, presumably, just came from Storm's End where he ended the siege and sent home the last army loyal to the Targaeryans. He is probably not in any real danger.

Travelling in a post-war country is never safe, and being a victorious rebel leader is quite a reason for someone to take out their grudge on him.

As for acting dishonorably. Well, having sex with a high born girl out of wedlock would be dishonorable for Ned. As for Cat, do we know when they were betrothed? Had their wedding been arranged while he was still in the Vale? If he were already betrothed, then his having one last night with Ashara could be seen as a betrayal. Now, these are not slam dunk theories, I admit. Barristan seems to think that Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. As we learn more about that, it might very well cast a new light on the situation. As I said, I don't know who the mother is, but I was leaning towards Ashara.

You claimed that Ned and Ashara hange out prior the Rebellion when Cat was still betrothed to Brandon. Furthermore, Hoster wasn’t on the Rebellion until some time after it broke out, so whatever engagement there might have been, it was after the Rebellion started, not before.

[MtnLion]

As for Jon and King Robert at Winterfell, why don't you take what the book says at face value? Having Jon at the feast could be an insult against Cersei. Because bastards are not invited to formal affairs or presented in society. As much as you say that Ned treated Jon different, here is one more case of him being treated the same as other bastards in Westeros.

I don’t take that at face value, because Ned would not have been concerned with that, it was Winterfell, not King’s Landing. This particular event was an exception for how Jon was treated, as at all previous occasions he was part of the family. I referred to being treated differently than Robb, he is obviously treated differently than other bastards by being castle raised with Ned’s children.

Who present knew Rhaegar and Lyanna intimately? Obvious answer is Robert and Ned. Who does Jon look like? He looks like Arya, who is said to look almost identical to Lyanna. Robert will start a whole new line of thoughts if he sees Jon up close, and those thoughts expose Ned’s treason.

[MtnLion]

Lyanna's involvement with Rhaegar is arguably just as dangerous as Jon's identity. It's been 14 years and Robert hasn't made a move against the Targaeryan children. If at the beginning of GoT, Robert HAD spotted Jon, and through a flash of divine inspiration realized that he was Lyanna and Rhaegar's child, do you realistically expect that Robert would order him killed? I do not.

Robert would absolutely kill Rhaegar’s child, if he found one. If one has any doubts about this, just recall how many times Robert has killed Rhaegar, and how he feels about it.

[MtnLion]

As for the bed of blood, it is used in the story only one other time which happens to refer to a child birth. I don't see this as being a grand slam, "bed of blood always means child birth." To me, this is an example of the group think which surrounds R+L=J. So many people have convinced themselves that it is true that they make leaps of logic to find evidence to support it. It could just be an artistic way for GRRM to describe the scene. Maybe she was sick. Maybe Rhaegar actually abused her. Maybe the KG's orders were to kill her if Ned Stark or Robert showed up. For all the "honor" of the KG, as Jaime says, they did nothing to prevent the cruelty of the mad king. Perhaps, like Joffrey's KG, they were complicit in it as well?

The problem I see here is that too many counter assumptions need to be made wholesale to come up with an alternative. So, we take to grasping at straws, nowhere else in the novels does a bed of blood mean anything other than childbirth, so 100% for 0% against.

[MtnLion]

As for acting dishonorably. Well, having sex with a high born girl out of wedlock would be dishonorable for Ned. As for Cat, do we know when they were betrothed? Had their wedding been arranged while he was still in the Vale? If he were already betrothed, then his having one last night with Ashara could be seen as a betrayal. Now, these are not slam dunk theories, I admit. Barristan seems to think that Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal. As we learn more about that, it might very well cast a new light on the situation. As I said, I don't know who the mother is, but I was leaning towards Ashara.

Jon Arryn and Ned made the betrothals to support the rebellion. The marriage timing seems to be in dispute because one of Jon Arryn’s heirs dies at the Battle of the Bells, and is also given as a reason for Jon Arryn to have accepted Lysa based upon her demonstrated fertility. We do know that Robb was conceived on the wedding night, and that Jon is a month or two younger than Robb. Catelyn is not so foolish as to make a mistake on babies' ages, and she would have no cause for jealousy if Jon is older than Robb.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

I would be inclined to agree if not knowing his mother’s name wasn’t causing Jon such a trauma, and Ned would have had to be totally blind not to be aware of that. I would also say that it seems very much out of character for Ned not to own his faults and not be open, if just between the two of them, about it to Jon.

And you’re basing this imagery on what? When and where in the books is any blue flower associated with love, romance or inspiration? The only and sole case when a blue flower turns up it’s always in connection with Lyanna, no other.

This is based on western literary principles which writers like GRRM draw from.

A little correction: Jon is not merely a Targaryen child, he’s a child of Rhaegar. The one whom Robert hates And, by harbouring Jon, Ned is effectively committing treason – that is the real danger, not the huge embarrassment that Lyanna’s willing participation would have been.

I don't think it's realistic to think Ned would believe himself in danger of being arrested for treason 14 years later. Nor do I think he would still expect Robert would put him to death.

Ah. So, Ned thinks highly about Dayne who was complicit in abusing his sister and who, despite being good with sword, botched the attempt to kill her off so badly that she lived long enough to develop fever? OPr that Lyanna was still bleeding from abuse that Rhaegar inflicted on her months later after he had left? Give me a break.

Should I take that you chose to only answer one scenario I presented means you concede the others?

"men do battle of the field of war and women do battle in the bed of blood“ (Randyll Tarly)

“That was the way of this cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died, whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain.” (Damphair)

But yeah, totally a coincidence and a leap of logic.

Conceded.

Travelling in a post-war country is never safe, and being a victorious rebel leader is quite a reason for someone to take out their grudge on him.

You claimed that Ned and Ashara hange out prior the Rebellion when Cat was still betrothed to Brandon. Furthermore, Hoster wasn’t on the Rebellion until some time after it broke out, so whatever engagement there might have been, it was after the Rebellion started, not before.

Actually, I believe that Ned and Cat were betrothed as soon as Brandon died. It seems to have been done under the convention that the second son marries in place of the first. It also depends on how you define the start of the rebellion. Do you begin it at Summerhall, or as soon as Brandon and Rickard die?

------

Also, earlier someone had questioned whether an encounter between Ned and Ashara would lead to a child being born some time around the sack of winterfell. According to Ned, Tywin sacked King's Landing after the war had been raging for "nearly" a year. It seems to me that there is enough grey area in there, based on what "nearly" means, and how you count the start of the rebellion, to make it possible that Jon could have conceived by Ashara at the beginning of the rebellion.

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

I don’t take that at face value, because Ned would not have been concerned with that, it was Winterfell, not King’s Landing. This particular event was an exception for how Jon was treated, as at all previous occasions he was part of the family. I referred to being treated differently than Robb, he is obviously treated differently than other bastards by being castle raised with Ned’s children.

It depends on how you look at it. You're looking for hidden meanings, I'm taking things at face value. Jon was excluded from his list of children in Ned's thoughts. I see that as meaning he is being treated like a bastard, you see it as meaning he is not his child.

Here again, i see his exclusion as being due to his bastardy. You see it as him being hidden.

Who present knew Rhaegar and Lyanna intimately? Obvious answer is Robert and Ned. Who does Jon look like? He looks like Arya, who is said to look almost identical to Lyanna. Robert will start a whole new line of thoughts if he sees Jon up close, and those thoughts expose Ned’s treason.

It might be a bit of a stretch to say that Ned and Robert knew Rhaegar intimitely. It might even be a stretch to say that Robert knew Lyanna intimately. After all, he doesn't seem to be aware that she had reservations about their marriage.

Speaking of those reservations, Lyanna does not like that Robert's nature will not change by being married, meaning he will still sleep around. This is sometimes used to suggest that she would have a reason for running off with Rhaegar.

How is running off with a married man any better than marrying a womanizer? Especially since it seems clear that he's not going to abandon his wife. Yes, Targaeryan's have had plural marriages, but that was generations ago, and it probably would not make a romantic northern girl feel any better about having to share a man with his wife.

[The guy from the Vale]

This is based on western literary principles which writers like GRRM draw from.

I don't think it's realistic to think Ned would believe himself in danger of being arrested for treason 14 years later. Nor do I think he would still expect Robert would put him to death.

Should I take that you chose to only answer one scenario I presented means you concede the others?

Conceded.

Travelling in a post-war country is never safe, and being a victorious rebel leader is quite a reason for someone to take out their grudge on him.

Actually, I believe that Ned and Cat were betrothed as soon as Brandon died. It seems to have been done under the convention that the second son marries in place of the first. It also depends on how you define the start of the rebellion. Do you begin it at Summerhall, or as soon as Brandon and Rickard die?

------

Also, earlier someone had questioned whether an encounter between Ned and Ashara would lead to a child being born some time around the sack of winterfell. According to Ned, Tywin sacked King's Landing after the war had been raging for "nearly" a year. It seems to me that there is enough grey area in there, based on what "nearly" means, and how you count the start of the rebellion, to make it possible that Jon could have conceived by Ashara at the beginning of the rebellion.

There is no such grey area. Jaime was 15 at the Tourney at Harrenhal, and he was 17 when he slew Aerys. Even if you allow for Jaime to have been 15 and 364 days at the tourney and having his 17th birthday during the sack, there was a gap of at least a year, and most likely two years.

If Ned had met Ashara at any point between the tourney and the start of the rebellion, Robert would know, as they both were wards of Jon Arryn at the time. But Robert doesn't know, so Ned and Ashara didn't meet between these two dates.

[MtnLion]

It depends on how you look at it. You're looking for hidden meanings, I'm taking things at face value. Jon was excluded from his list of children in Ned's thoughts. I see that as meaning he is being treated like a bastard, you see it as meaning he is not his child.

Here again, i see his exclusion as being due to his bastardy. You see it as him being hidden.

I see it as meaning that Ned deliberately hides Jon from Robert to avoid Robert connecting the dots. The excuse is given, but it is obviously not acceptable to Jon who has never been excluded before. This brings in the hidden reason for excluding Jon from the feast, and excluding him whenever Robert is with Ned. Strange that the excuse is based on Cersei's sensibilities, but it seems to center around Robert.

It might be a bit of a stretch to say that Ned and Robert knew Rhaegar intimitely. It might even be a stretch to say that Robert knew Lyanna intimately. After all, he doesn't seem to be aware that she had reservations about their marriage.

Speaking of those reservations, Lyanna does not like that Robert's nature will not change by being married, meaning he will still sleep around. This is sometimes used to suggest that she would have a reason for running off with Rhaegar.

So, you are trying to say that Ned had no reason to fear that Robert would see Lyanna and Rhaegar in Jon's features? We don't know how Ned saw Jon's features, for storytelling reasons, but isn't it likely that he feared that Robert would make the same connections he might be making whenever he looks at Jon? Nevermind, I already know what you will say.

How is running off with a married man any better than marrying a womanizer? Especially since it seems clear that he's not going to abandon his wife. Yes, Targaeryan's have had plural marriages, but that was generations ago, and it probably would not make a romantic northern girl feel any better about having to share a man with his wife.

And, what part of Elia can bear no further children suggests that Rhaegar would be unfaithful to Lyanna?

[Ygrain]

Speaking of those reservations, Lyanna does not like that Robert's nature will not change by being married, meaning he will still sleep around. This is sometimes used to suggest that she would have a reason for running off with Rhaegar.

How is running off with a married man any better than marrying a womanizer? Especially since it seems clear that he's not going to abandon his wife. Yes, Targaeryan's have had plural marriages, but that was generations ago, and it probably would not make a romantic northern girl feel any better about having to share a man with his wife.

Since Rhaegar’s marriage was arranged and he didn’t love Elia, he had no reason to ever bed her again after she couldn’t have any more children, so there would actually be no sharing. And, while the polygamy hadn’t been practiced for some time, it had never been declared illegal (and compare how easily Targs got away with incest which was pretty much a big social taboo). Being a second wife (with the first wife being only statutory) to one’s beloved Prince Charming is way different from being married to an unloved womanizer.

This is based on western literary principles which writers like GRRM draw from.

Being a western writer doesn’t automatically include using this type of imagery and in writing an AU world it would actually be a serious mistake. Unless you can prove GRRM using other non-ASOIAF imagery for the ASOIAF world, this argument doesn’t hold water.

I don't think it's realistic to think Ned would believe himself in danger of being arrested for treason 14 years later. Nor do I think he would still expect Robert would put him to death.

Only, it’s not a treason 14 years ago, it is a treason going on for fourteen years. One that Robert cannot ignore before his vassals – can you imagine Tywin the childslayer letting this be? – and one he actually may not be willing to forgive. Even if he allowed Ned to go to exile or take black, it would still be a huge blow to House Stark, and especially to Jon.

Should I take that you chose to only answer one scenario I presented means you concede the others?

Kind of a moot point, since you have already conceded that “bed of blood” is indeed a consistent childbirth reference and it’s your turn now to explain where Lyanna’s child is if it’s not Jon, but merely to entertain you…

I have actually adressed two of your options, KG attempting to kill Lyanna and Rhaegar abusing her so that she was bleeding months afterwards, so the one I haven’t adressed is sickness. Please, state examples of illnesses mentioned in ASOIAF that cause haemorrhaging, other than the terminal stage of tuberculosis, which wouldn’t have developed within a single year in a previously healthy person (no mention ever that Lyanna suffered from it, no mention of cough in her last moments). Equivalents of Ebola or Marburg are never cited. Feel free to continue, my medical knowledge is not so extensive.

Actually, I believe that Ned and Cat were betrothed as soon as Brandon died. It seems to have been done under the convention that the second son marries in place of the first. It also depends on how you define the start of the rebellion. Do you begin it at Summerhall, or as soon as Brandon and Rickard die?

The Rebellion starts after Aerys demands the heads of Ned and Robert and Jon Arryn raises his banners. Hoster Tully joins their pact only later, and there is nothing to make us assume that the betrothal pact transfers automatically.

Also, earlier someone had questioned whether an encounter between Ned and Ashara would lead to a child being born some time around the sack of winterfell. According to Ned, Tywin sacked King's Landing after the war had been raging for "nearly" a year. It seems to me that there is enough grey area in there, based on what "nearly" means, and how you count the start of the rebellion, to make it possible that Jon could have conceived by Ashara at the beginning of the rebellion.

GRRM has been precise enough to pin Jon’s birth 8-9 months prior Dany, so there is no reason to presume that he would have a war go for about a year when actually it would be only 8-9 months.

[Dragonfish]

Actually, I believe that Ned and Cat were betrothed as soon as Brandon died. It seems to have been done under the convention that the second son marries in place of the first. It also depends on how you define the start of the rebellion. Do you begin it at Summerhall, or as soon as Brandon and Rickard die?

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Also, earlier someone had questioned whether an encounter between Ned and Ashara would lead to a child being born some time around the sack of winterfell. According to Ned, Tywin sacked King's Landing after the war had been raging for "nearly" a year. It seems to me that there is enough grey area in there, based on what "nearly" means, and how you count the start of the rebellion, to make it possible that Jon could have conceived by Ashara at the beginning of the rebellion.

No, Ned did not conceive Jon at the beginning of the Rebellion. In addition to saying that he dishonored Cat when he fathered Jon, he also states that she was carrying his child when it happened. So again, if Ned is the father, then he conceived Jon after he married Cat.