NFL Thread: Arrest Season Continues

[Jace, Extat]

The Colts are not winning the AFC South. I mean, I would love to be wrong about this, they're probably my second-favorite team right now (four 2nd-year Stanford players on the roster), but they should by all accounts fall down to 8-8ish this season. They were not that good last year, and I have little-to-no faith that the O-Line suddenly shows a ton of improvement. I like Khaled Holmes, but even still.

Dude, I still am not sure where 11-5 came from (even after watching all the highlights again). But I think it's less about how good the Colts actually are (weak RB's, awful front-7, suspect safeties, poor O-line), and more about how bad the AFC South -and the AFC in general- is. The way I see it is the Colts at a very possible 3 seed, and almost guaranteed a 4 seed. It's basically the Broncos at #1, the Bengals at #2 (depending on injuries), and Colts/Patriots for #4/3. That's not talking up my boys, or knocking down the hated Pats, those are just the facts as I see them today. The Texans are becoming less of a paper tiger and more of a "J.J. Watt, Arian Foster, old-ass Andre Johnson, and who?", the Ravens might be the worst reigning champs to ever take the field on opening day, the Steelers are still clocking in at #1 defense overall but nobody knows how/why, the Chargers are still the Chargers, the Chiefs still have nobody to hand the ball off, Miami is laughably naïve about FA, and that takes care of anybody in the AFC with any shred of talent worth considering. And don't think I'm hoping my boys will get the #3 over the Pats purely out of spite, it's because Tom Brady is hoping to throw the ball to Julian Edelman/whats-his-name-from-St. Louis and still be a championship team. The best Pats teams didn't need Tom Brady to be a god, because they had good running games (here, Shane Vereen fills that old requirement), but they also had sick-nasty defenses (Vince Wilfork is just 3 men, you need 11), and TB makes good talent great, but even he needs people who actually belong on an NFL field in order to put up great stats. Anyways, I'm drunk/tired, the Pats will be lucky to hit 10 wins (unless they have a bottom-five strength of schedule for, like, the 10th year straight) and they'll win the East pretty damn easily, and likely take the #3 seed, but I just don't see a lot of competition in the AFC, especially the South. Really wish I could make paragraphs...

Another Colts fan; yay! Welcome to the NFL thread. This probably is the best place to discuss all things football.

Blu-Ray we are winning the south. The Texans are good, but I think Luck will be so much better this year.

Nice to have an ally.

[Independent George]

Bored while babysitting a friend, so I decided to watch the 2012 Colts highlights. Was watching the horrid Jets>Colts game in Week 6 (where Shonn Greene played like that guy the Jets ditched Thomas Jones and Leon Washington for) and I decided that Tim Tebow reached new douche levels (in my eyes) when he sprints onto the field to celebrate a touchdown with Mark Sanchez. It's cool to celebrate the TD's, but a routine throw-catch in the 1st quarter...? C'mon man! What a tool.

It's the Jets. There's nothing routine about it.

[Jace, Extat]

It's the Jets. There's nothing routine about it.

How I long for the "like" button... What was worse; the 2012 Jets passing game, or the 2010 Panthers passing game? I think I'd have to go with Panthers because they only had 9! passing TD's on the year... However, buttfumble...

[Jabronius Maximus]

@Jace wow, now that you outline it the AFC looks really weak at this point. I'd still say the Pats finish 2nd, even without all those receivers. I know this sounds lame, but they have Brady and that's usually good for 10-12 wins alone. This is how I see the seeding shake down:

1. Broncos

2. Patriots

3. Bengals

4. Texans

5. Colts

6. Steelers

[Jace, Extat]

@Jace wow, now that you outline it the AFC looks really weak at this point. I'd still say the Pats finish 2nd, even without all those receivers. I know this sounds lame, but they have Brady and that's usually good for 10-12 wins alone. This is how I see the seeding shake down:

1. Broncos

2. Patriots

3. Bengals

4. Texans

5. Colts

6. Steelers

I won't disagree with anything except having the Texans at 4 (they're not that good). I don't think that any team outside the Broncos and (depending on injuries) Bengals make the playoffs in the NFC, Patriots included. I won't be surprised when they win 10-12 games this year, but it comes down to quality of competition. The Broncos are the undisputed favorites in the AFC, and I think they're a Wildcard in any NFC division except for the East. (Or maybe the North, it'd be a dogfight with the Pack) It's just stupid how bad the AFC is right now. I'm cool with the six teams you listed (though order is questionable), but looking at the paper teams, 4 of those six have no business in the NFL postseason.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

I don't think the Texans are that good, but all indications are that they're better than the Colts and Bengals. They did have some bad injuries last year and the right side of their line was so bad that Foster couldn't run in that direction. Those two issues should be slightly better this year.

[Jace, Extat]

I don't think the Texans are that good, but all indications are that they're better than the Colts and Bengals. They did have some bad injuries last year and the right side of their line was so bad that Foster couldn't run in that direction. Those two issues should be slightly better this year.

I think you're underestimating the sexiest autistic quarterback in the league.

[Howdyphillip]

Whatever...

Just remember that Romo always chokes and the Redskins are on the rise. HTTR!!!

There is a good history here between the few Cowboy's fans and the Washington Racist Names fans of jibing back and forth. It just usually consists of intelligent people actually bringing football conversation in the discussion rather than Youtube like comments.

Some of the most knowledgeable people on the boards are part of this. You are going to have to do better than that.

I don't think the Texans are that good, but all indications are that they're better than the Colts and Bengals. They did have some bad injuries last year and the right side of their line was so bad that Foster couldn't run in that direction. Those two issues should be slightly better this year.

I actually think that the Texans are the dark horse to beat Denver out of the AFC. The return of Brian Cushing will be key, and Greg Jones who is their fullback is one of the best blocking backs in the game. He has been in Jacksonville blocking for MJD

[Jace, Extat]

And the attack of the Achillies continues. Dan Koppen out for the season. ETA: Koppen tore ACL, initial story I saw on NFL.com said Achillies.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

At first, I thought, "o fuck, a pat's offensive lineman's already been injured." Then I felt relief when I remembered that Koppen's with the Bronco's now. Then I felt guilt at feeling happy at a player's injury.

[trickster]

There is a good history here between the few Cowboy's fans and the Washington Racist Names fans of jibing back and forth. It just usually consists of intelligent people actually bringing football conversation in the discussion rather than Youtube like comments.

Some of the most knowledgeable people on the boards are part of this. You are going to have to do better than that.

I actually think that the Texans are the dark horse to beat Denver out of the AFC. The return of Brian Cushing will be key, and Greg Jones who is their fullback is one of the best blocking backs in the game. He has been in Jacksonville blocking for MJD

Manning owns the Texans, that's one team he knows very very well from his AFC south days. OF all the AFC teams; that's the team the Broncos should worry the least. Given the state of the AFC, I think the Broncos are heavy favorite to go to the SB. But then again Manning and the Broncos/Colts (and it pains me to say this) have been there before.

As for the Colts, I expect Luck to take the leap by cutting down on his INTs and getting his completion percentage up. Manning did it in year 2 and I am hoping (and am reasonably confident) that Luck will do the same.

[Jace, Extat]

Manning owns the Texans, that's one team he knows very very well from his AFC south days. OF all the AFC teams; that's the team the Broncos should worry the least. Given the state of the AFC, I think the Broncos are heavy favorite to go to the SB. But then again Manning and the Broncos/Colts (and it pains me to say this) have been there before.

As for the Colts, I expect Luck to take the leap by cutting down on his INTs and getting his completion percentage up. Manning did it in year 2 and I am hoping (and am reasonably confident) that Luck will do the same.

Word. I don't think any Colts team was ever as highly-rated as this years' Broncos. Peyton's working with the best offense since the days of the terrible trifecta (Edge, Marv, and Peyton), and unlike literally any Colts team ever, the Broncos have a solid defense. (really wish I could make a paragraph here) Even if Von Miller gets suspended for 4 games, that drops the Broncos from a top-10 defense down to a middle-of-the-pack defense, and that's more than any Colts defense except 2007 could say. Anyways, Welker actually WILL make a huge difference in the Broncos' passing game, and the Broncos' defense won't force Peyton to put up ungodly numbers every week (though he still might), so this years' Broncos are the strongest all-around AFC team to take the field since the 2007/2008 Patriots. Ending this rant, Peyton Manning kinda carried the Broncos last year when he really didn't have too. I think that he was still broken from playing in Indy those last few years when it was just him and Reggie vs the world, and it showed in the loss to the Ravens. I think we're gonna see a bit more of a relaxed Peyton Manning this year, just from the personnel standpoint and the way he seems to be approaching this offseason I think he's in a much more relaxed state of mind. The best four QB's in the game today are (in no order) Rodgers, Manning, Brees, and Brady. And all four of them are always breaking their backs for their teams because that's what's expected of them. But when you look at the last time those guys won superbowls; Charles Woodson (and the entire GB defense) should've gone to prison for repeated theft of footballs, New Orleans was like #2 or #4 in rushing + see GB defense commentary, Tom Brady was just a good QB on one of the greatest teams to ever take the field (2004 Pats), and Peyton Manning was dragged by his ear to the AFC Championship (where he turned it on) by a somehow-uninjured Bob Sanders + vicious Colts defense. GOD I WISH I COULD MAKE PARAGRAPHS! Anyways, I think that since 2007, when these 3 (and later 4) QB's started going insane during the regular season, this years' Broncos have the best all-around team to match up with one of the big-4, and Peyton Manning seems more relaxed than I've seen any of the big-4 for a long, long, time. I wonder if Eli finally shared the big bag of weed he must be smoking...

[trickster]

.... Lots of good points :agree:

Welker could have a huge impact during the playoffs. Given Manning's somewhat iffy arm, he may have trouble throwing downfield in Denver during January (we saw that during the playoff loss to the Ravens). Welker is the guy who could move the chains in the passing game during the playoffs.

The Broncos give Peyton the luxury of being in a playoff game where his defense is better than the opponents' D (I know Rahim Moore still plays for the Broncos ^_^ )

[Jabronius Maximus]

I won't disagree with anything except having the Texans at 4 (they're not that good). I don't think that any team outside the Broncos and (depending on injuries) Bengals make the playoffs in the NFC, Patriots included. I won't be surprised when they win 10-12 games this year, but it comes down to quality of competition. The Broncos are the undisputed favorites in the AFC, and I think they're a Wildcard in any NFC division except for the East. (Or maybe the North, it'd be a dogfight with the Pack) It's just stupid how bad the AFC is right now. I'm cool with the six teams you listed (though order is questionable), but looking at the paper teams, 4 of those six have no business in the NFL postseason.

I actually had the Colts at 4 initially, and my gut says they'll win the division, but Houston played top competition and won the AFC south last year. And their schedule is slightly easier than what it was last year, so I'd say they're a safe bet to win the south again.

Despite the fair schedule, early on they face Seattle, SF and St Louis in consecutive weeks. They could be walking corpses by week 5 after going through 3 frightening defenses in 3 weeks. I'm not a Colts fan, but I really wonder how the Texans will hold up after that stretch.

[Kalbear]

Between Dumervil, Von Miller and Koppen the chances of Denver doing much in the playoffs is very, very slim. Well, sorta. The AFC is very much wide open this year; the Pats are clearly going to take a hit for a bit, the Ravens got dismantled, the Texans were never outstanding as a team. We've got some odd up and comers - the Bengals in particular could make this their year and I expect the Chiefs to be competitive. But there aren't the dominant teams that the NFC has or the AFC had last year. There's no SF/Seattle/GB in the AFC, nor is there last year's Broncos or Pats or Ravens.

[Jace, Extat]

Between Dumervil, Von Miller and Koppen the chances of Denver doing much in the playoffs is very, very slim. Well, sorta. The AFC is very much wide open this year; the Pats are clearly going to take a hit for a bit, the Ravens got dismantled, the Texans were never outstanding as a team. We've got some odd up and comers - the Bengals in particular could make this their year and I expect the Chiefs to be competitive. But there aren't the dominant teams that the NFC has or the AFC had last year. There's no SF/Seattle/GB in the AFC, nor is there last year's Broncos or Pats or Ravens.

Agreed, we can pretty much just hold the NFC playoffs and crown the Championship winners and the Superbowl winners at the same time. Still, I think the Broncos go something like 13-3 easy. I can see them losing to the Bengals in the playoffs, but not really anyone else. On a much more sexy note, though, I'm so excited for the Luckster. Homeboy's gonna be a bit more settled, a few less deep passes this year (means less turnovers and sacks), and maybe T.Y. Hilton has attended a catching seminar this offseason. Dude's got hella talent, but fucking butterfingers, man. I'm also hoping for great things from Mr. Heyward-Bey. I'm not predicting, 'cause god knows there's a reason we got him for like 1.25 mil a year, but he's got speed. And speed kills. If he goes to a catching seminar with Hilton, and they both let Reggie work on the chalkboard, this could be a sick receiving corps. Hilton/DH-B opening deep, Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener playing small-ball, and Reggie Wayne prancing about at mid-range... If it works, it's gonna fucking work. Here's hoping. ETA: If it seems like I'm contradicting my early post about the Broncos' potential, I'm not. They're far and away the best paper team in the AFC, but that means nothing when it's ring-time.

[Jaime L]

Between Dumervil, Von Miller and Koppen the chances of Denver doing much in the playoffs is very, very slim. Well, sorta. The AFC is very much wide open this year; the Pats are clearly going to take a hit for a bit, the Ravens got dismantled, the Texans were never outstanding as a team. We've got some odd up and comers - the Bengals in particular could make this their year and I expect the Chiefs to be competitive. But there aren't the dominant teams that the NFC has or the AFC had last year. There's no SF/Seattle/GB in the AFC, nor is there last year's Broncos or Pats or Ravens.

Miller's only out 4 games at most and the latest rumors are that he never failed a drug test, just didn't show up. I don't think that gets him out of the suspension but there is some murkiness there. Dumervil's already been replaced by Shaun Phillips, a thoroughly solid pass rusher that managed 9.5 sacks on a Chargers team with no other real threats to worry about.

Koppen is the big loss considering he was the more than capable stand-in for JD Walton who is also out for the year. Not sure how they find a halfway decent third string center now. FO points out that outside of QB, losing a center has the harshest effect on a team's offensive DVOA. This is the one big question mark on a team that had really had none (unless you count how Peyton Manning plays in cold weather post surgery which I guess remains an open question)

Still make no mistake, this team is loaded everywhere but center and after the Patriots summer of hell, I think its the clear team to beat in the AFC by a substantial margin. This team went 13-3 last year and presumably got better and deeper everywhere they had lingering question marks through adding Welker, DRC, Monte Ball and D-line help. Losing Koppen is a big blow, but this is still a clear Superbowl or bust type season. Peyton Manning ain't getting any younger. And if they don't get there in this very down year for the AFC there will be intense bitterness up and down the front range. I feel like all the good NFC teams want to get to the Superbowl whereas Denver needs to.

[Prince of the North]

Peyton Manning presses some digits on his phone and says: "Hey, Jeff (Saturday)! S'up, man?" :P

[Jace, Extat]

Peyton Manning presses some digits on his phone and says: "Hey, Jeff (Saturday)! S'up, man?" :P

Lol. Fuck, he was trying that for half a decade with Tarik Glenn. "Dude, the guy's name is Ugho, and he blocks as well as his name sounds."

[honeyed chicken]

Considering the topic title, I found this article on Deadspin that just came across my Facebook feed to be pretty interesting.

It shows that NFL players do have a higher arrest rate than the population in general (except on drug charges), but that when compared with US Adult Male arrest rate it is actually lower. The only category they seem to have a higher arrest rate are weapons related crimes.

I hesitate to even ask this question... but it is a fact that the arrest rate amongst black men in the US is higher than the all male average. I would be interested in seeing a comparison chart of black NFL athletes compared to the national average for their peer group. My bet is that the NFL athletes are significantly less likely to be arrested than national average for their racial demographic.

Thanks.

The Deadspin article is a refreshingly evenhanded perspective on the topic.

The added factor I'd like to see enter the discussion is tbi (traumatic brain injuries). Having your brain messed with the way NFL players do has to have an effect.

The military must have some pretty good stats on tbi and crime in soldiers. Might be some strong parallels there.