R+L=J v 58

[Ruby Chevrolet]

I doubt SFDanny was trying to specifically blow "your" skirt up. You do realize everything you've said is just as much speculation and theory as everything SFDanny just stated? Until GRRM confirms any of these theories, it's all speculation. Maybe a theory is right, maybe a theory is wrong. But it's still a theory and good theories must be tested against other possibilities. We can learn just as much from a failed experiment as you can from a "successful" experiment. The only difference is what we're learning.

ETA:

I realize, after the fact, that this sounds bitchier than I had intended. I was trying to say. You don't have to believe his theory if you don't want to. He doesn't have to believe yours if he doesn't want to. Right now, we're all just writing the story the way we want it.

There's no need for you to apologize. You're not the one breaking Wheaton's Law here.

[Dio Forel]

Random sidenote... D&D told GRRM their educated guess about who Jons mother was... GRRM was happy with their response and said they were correct which most assume means they guessed R + L = J. This theory has been around for ages... Could it be possible they said "We arent sure but its not R and L". I dont agree.... But maybe.

[MtnLion]

-

I'm not saying it proves anything, but both Elia & Aegon were definitely kept as hostages by Aerys after the Trident:

ASOS-Jamie Chapter 37- "Rhaegar met Robert on the Trident, and you know what happened there. When the word reached court, Aerys packed the queen off to Dragonstone with Prince Viserys. Princess Elia would have gone as well, but he forbade it. Somehow he had gotten it in his head that Prince Lewyn must have betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident, but he thought he could keep Dorne loyal so long as he kept Elia and Aegon by his side. The traitors want my city, I heard him tell Rossart, but I'll give them naught but ashes. Let Robert be king over charred bones and cooked meat. The Targaryens never bury their dead, they burn them. Aery's meant to have the greatest funeral pyre of them all. Though if truth be told, I do not believe he truly expected to die. Like Aerion Brightfire before him, Aerys thought the fire would transform him....that he would rise again reborn as a dragon and turn all his enemies to ash."

Yes, this is in the text, it is not a direct threat to Aegon, nor is it before the Trident, when it is claimed that Rhaegar had a fear that Aegon was being threatened. I want a direct threat to Aegon by Aerys before the supposed Aegon swap takes place. If there is no direct threat, there is no reason for the swap.

[MtnLion]

I think we're mixing things. I'll try to make it clear.

Right after the Battle of the Bells Aerys was helding Elia to make himself sure of her brother Lewyn fealthy (ASOS: Steel and Snow, page 505 in the edition I have by myself right now.)

Elia was the main hostage, and her children went in the pack. As far as Lewyn was concerned, Aerys could concede to send Aegon to Rhaegar.

After that, Rhaella fled to Dragonstone with her children and Aerys refused to let Elia flee anywhere, in order to mantain Dorne's dubious (for him) fealthy.

Aerys could use Aegon as a hostage to his own son, but he wouldn't be willing to harm his grandson. Those family feuds are really thorny. It's a nerves war.

Rhaella fled to Dragonstone on Aerys' order after the Trident, after Rhaegar is dead, after the supposed swap. Nothing that occurs after the swap can be a motive for the swap. Am I clear?

So, why doesn't Rhaegar save Elia and all of the children? What are his reasons for only the one? Be very clear, because Rhaegar values Rhaenys exactly as much as he values Aegon and his future child with Lyanna.

[MtnLion]

I wondered if Aerys kept Elia and the children not just as a threat to the Martells but to Rhaegar as well, if Aerys believed that Rhaegar was plotting a coup d'etat.

That is a supposition, you are going to need to support that with some hint. There is only one hint that Aerys was wary of Rhaegar, and it is a year before the rebellion, he attends Harrenhal Tourney to keep Rhaegar from forming to close an alliance with the major houses. That was Varys' doing. There is no indication of bad feelings between Rhaegar and his father in the intervening time, indeed Aerys depends on him to win the war. When Rhaegar is leaving for the Trident is when he considers that it is time for change, not before. He does mention paths not traveled, but that is not an indication that he planned anything prior.

[MtnLion]

I agree about Maester Aemon. Ironically it's Melisandre to tell him that the PtwP stands before him though he doesn't have the eyes to see... Obviously she meant Stannis. Not so sure about GRRM though ;)

That is something that I remembered, but could not locate! I knew that GRRM almost choked on his laughter when he wrote that line.

[Lissa Nymeros Martell]

Yes, this is in the text, it is not a direct threat to Aegon, nor is it before the Trident, when it is claimed that Rhaegar had a fear that Aegon was being threatened. I want a direct threat to Aegon by Aerys before the supposed Aegon swap takes place. If there is no direct threat, there is no reason for the swap.

I think the point is that it would have been foolish for Rhaegar to believe that his entire family wasn't in danger from Aerys. IIRC Rhaegar was making a plan to move against Aerys. We have no idea what the state of affairs was at KL between Rhaegar and Aerys. Additionally, we have Varys saying that a switch happened. In a situation where he had no reason to lie about it.

Kevan Lannister also recalls that no one bothered to look too hard at the boy after the Sack.

Kevan Lannister had been here, in this very hall when Tywin had laid the bodies of Prince Rhaegar's children at the foot of the Iron Throne, wrapped up in crimson cloaks. The girl had been recognizably the Princess Rhaenys, but the boy... a faceless horror of bone and brain and gore. None of us looked long. Tywin said that it was Prince Aegon and we took him at his word.

I suppose I question why we should immediately discount Varys testimony. He's manipulative but I don't recall many instances of his lying outright. Is Young Griff Aegon Targaryen? Probably not. But could Aegon have been removed from KL before the Sack? It's possible. Whether or not Rhaegar was involved. Elia could have contacted Varys directly to make a switch after Rhaegar died on the trident.

It was a few weeks after the Sack that Ned eventually made it to the TOJ. Enough time for Aegon to be moved from KL to the TOJ probably to a port of some sort.

[shk12344]

Random sidenote... D&D told GRRM their educated guess about who Jons mother was... GRRM was happy with their response and said they were correct which most assume means they guessed R + L = J. This theory has been around for ages... Could it be possible they said "We arent sure but its not R and L". I dont agree.... But maybe.

Question really isn't if R+L=J is truth or not, that is pretty much a fact IMHO, but what that will mean to Jon Snow and the rest of Westoros society. How will Jon react when he finds out the truth? Under what circumstance will Jon find out? How will those who control of Iron Throne or are fighting for Iron Throne like Stannis & Dany will react? How would Stark loyalists in the North react?

At least to me, those are more important issues to ponder about than questioning the validity of R+L=J.

[finger]

I don't think Aerys cared about Aegon and Rheanys, since he was going to burn Elia and them along with him. And Rhaegar was sure he'd win the Trident so he didn't have them moved or talked about having them moved. He was so sure he'd return from the Trident in victory.

And it's just like asking a parent which of their children they'd prefer to live. It's just not right if he agreed to have Aegon smuggled out and survive, but let his older daughter die with his wife.

I know it's complicated, but I'll try my best to explain it

Aerys didn't trust anyone, and he might have good reasons, as far as we know. He kept hostages to make sure of other people's fealthy:

- Jaime for Tywin

- Elia for Dorne

- Rhaenys and Aegon for Rhaegar.

Otoh, Aerys didn't want to finish his family, and Aegon was second in the line of succession. He could send him to his father and he still had Rhaenys. By this same logic, he sent Viserys away in due time.

Why with his father? I can imagine several reasons:

- if not with with his mother, with his father

- better not keep Viserys and Aegon together, just in case

- there were KG at ToJ

- Aegon was half Dornish. Should the bad went to the worse, he could find help in Dorne.

When Hightower left KL to fetch Rhaegar, the three of Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon had differents interests in sending Aegon far from KL. Thinking it better, the odd thing would have been not to take him away.

The other baby in his stance enhances his security, "some secrets are better not told", or something.

There's a detail that could confirm the story. Aerys dismissed the griffins after Stoney Sept. While the mace and dagger was Hand we was already preparing the burning of KL. We know for Tyrion that some time is needed to make the substance. When he sent Hightower away, Aerys might already have the notion of his huge funeral pyre. He got rid of KG who might prevent him from his mad plot, and spared Aegon of this fate. I'm still checking the timing, but I might be the final evidence to grab the storyline with both hands

If you want pyres and absurd stories of baby swaping, watch carefully Il Trovatore. Mine makes much more sense, by all means. The other one has some fine aria, anyhow.

Eta: Of course, Rhaegar would have wanted Rhaenys as well. One is less than two, but more than naugh. That happens when you compromise.

Eta2: @ Mtn Lion.

To find a reason to take Aegon away, there's no need to take Viserys into account. This only confirms that Aerys would follow a strategy of scattering his family for security.

Rhaegar was Aegon's father adn that's more than enough. But as a political tool, he was important specially if he had won on the Trident.

They had the reason and the chance. I think lawyers say there's circumstancial evidence, but not material evidence. I'm no lawyer, anyway,

[King of Winters]

I know it's complicated, but I'll try my best to explain it

Aerys didn't trust anyone, and he might have good reasons, as far as we know. He kept hostages to make sure of other people's fealthy:

- Jaime for Tywin

- Elia for Dorne

- Rhaenys and Aegon for Rhaegar.

Otoh, Aerys didn't want to finish his family, and Aegon was second in the line of succession. He could send him to his father and he still had Rhaenys. By this same logic, he sent Viserys away in due time.

Why with his father? I can imagine several reasons:

- if not with with his mother, with his father

- better not keep Viserys and Aegon together, just in case

- there were KG at ToJ

- Aegon was half Dornish. Should the bad went to the worse, he could find help in Dorne.

When Hightower left KL to fetch Rhaegar, the three of Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon had differents interests in sending Aegon far from KL. Thinking it better, the odd thing would have been not to take him away.

The other baby in his stance enhances his security, "some secrets are better not told", or something.

There's a detail that could confirm the story. Aerys dismissed the griffins after Stoney Sept. While the mace and dagger was Hand we was already preparing the burning of KL. We know for Tyrion that some time is needed to make the substance. When he sent Hightower away, Aerys might already have the notion of his huge funeral pyre. He got rid of KG who might prevent him from his mad plot, and spared Aegon of this fate. I'm still checking the timing, but I might be the final evidence to grab the storyline with both hands

If you want pyres and absurd stories of baby swaping, watch carefully Il Trovatore. Mine makes much more sense, by all means. The other one has some fine aria, anyhow.

Eta: Of course, Rhaegar would have wanted Rhaenys as well. One is less than two, but more than naugh. That happens when you compromise.

Eta2: @ Mtn Lion.

To find a reason to take Aegon away, there's no need to take Viserys into account. This only confirms that Aerys would follow a strategy of scattering his family for security.

Rhaegar was Aegon's father adn that's more than enough. But as a political tool, he was important specially if he had won on the Trident.

They had the reason and the chance. I think lawyers say there's circumstancial evidence, but not material evidence. I'm no lawyer, anyway,

Why would Aerys need to keep a hostage for Rhaegar? He was his son and Rhaegar was leading the Targ army himself. Aerys didn't trust people but I think he could trust Rhaegar by the time the Trident was coming up as if Rhaegar fell, they'd both die.

And you give Aerys too much credit. He was mad, not smart. He only kept his close family (Rhaella and Viserys) safe, not Elia or her children. If he was that smart to compromise with Rhaegar, then he'd be smart enough to see that killing both Brandon and Rickard was a bad idea along with sending for the heads of Ned and Robert.

Ser Gerold Hightower might not have stopped Aerys as he was the LC and he was known to have stood by what Aerys said or did. As he said to Jaime:

You swore a vow to guard the king, not to judge him.

[Jory Cassel]

I think the point is that it would have been foolish for Rhaegar to believe that his entire family wasn't in danger from Aerys. IIRC Rhaegar was making a plan to move against Aerys. We have no idea what the state of affairs was at KL between Rhaegar and Aerys. Additionally, we have Varys saying that a switch happened. In a situation where he had no reason to lie about it.

Kevan Lannister also recalls that no one bothered to look too hard at the boy after the Sack.

I suppose I question why we should immediately discount Varys testimony. He's manipulative but I don't recall many instances of his lying outright. Is Young Griff Aegon Targaryen? Probably not. But could Aegon have been removed from KL before the Sack? It's possible. Whether or not Rhaegar was involved. Elia could have contacted Varys directly to make a switch after Rhaegar died on the trident.

It was a few weeks after the Sack that Ned eventually made it to the TOJ. Enough time for Aegon to be moved from KL to the TOJ probably to a port of some sort.

thing is, Varys never talks about a switch. He talks about Aegon raising his banners, and when Kevan objects that Aegon is dead, Varys responds that he is not. Kevan explicitly talks about Aegon (as in son of rhaegar) whereas Varys talks about the boy now leading the golden company.

[Greymoon]

The thing that bothers me about baby swap and Aegon was at the ToJ theory is that: If Young Griff is not Aegon, then where in the world is the real Aegon? If he was at the ToJ, or if Vary's swapped him and took him away from KL....we are missing one babe/boy/young man. So, did Varys kill him off after orchestrating the swap so he could put Young Girff in his stead?

The only thing IMO, that makes sense if Aegon is alive, got swapped, raised in secrecy etc. but is not Young Griff...is that we have already met him. Otherwise, why bother? what does it bring to the story, in terms of plot-development?

I know that Aurare Waters, bastard of Driftmark is supposedly 22 or something. As an apparent bastard from house Velaryon, he has a Targaryen look, Cersei remarks upon it.

The only other person we know with a Targaryen look is Darkstar. Now, this might sound stupid but, if Aegon was anywhere close to the ToJ, midway between Summerhall and Starfall, protected by Arthur Dayne himself etc... why the heck not? High Hermitage is even closer to the ToJ, than Starfall.

Do we have an age for Darkstar? I expect him to be too old for Aegon, but who knows? He might just be precocious, sometimes it's hard to tell. I can't remember any precise mention of his age... He doesn’t appear much older than Arianne, so I always figured him to be around 20-25 but maybe it’s a misconception on my part. I do remember some posters speculating that Darkstar = Rhaegar reborn however, so the idea of Darkstar = Aegon, merits, at least, a tiny bit of attention. And if sister Rhaenys was killed by the evil usurpers dogs, then Darkstar has a good reason for wanting Myrcella dead. Just a thought. Also, Darkstar's eyes appear almost black, but they are a deep purple. Isn't that...Rhaegar's eye color? and Jon's eyes are 'almost black'.

I don't adhere to the theory that Aegon was at the ToJ, and that Varys really did swap the babes, and I'm rather convinced Aegon died in KL. But all the same, it can't be entirely discounted. But if we are to take this seriously, then IMO, the first order of the day, is to figure out what happened to Aegon? Of course, this becomes irrelevant if Young Griff = Aegon, but I doubt that's the case...

[WhiteOwl18]

The thing that bothers me about baby swap and Aegon was at the ToJ theory is that: If Young Griff is not Aegon, then where in the world is the real Aegon? If he was at the ToJ, or if Vary's swapped him and took him away from KL....we are missing one babe/boy/young man. So, did Varys kill him off after orchestrating the swap so he could put Young Girff in his stead?

The only thing IMO, that makes sense if Aegon is alive, got swapped, raised in secrecy etc. but is not Young Griff...is that we have already met him. Otherwise, why bother? what does it bring to the story, in terms of plot-development?

I know that Aurare Waters, bastard of Driftmark is supposedly 22 or something. As an apparent bastard from house Velaryon, he has a Targaryen look, Cersei remarks upon it.

The only other person we know with a Targaryen look is Darkstar. Now, this might sound stupid but, if Aegon was anywhere close to the ToJ, midway between Summerhall and Starfall, protected by Arthur Dayne himself etc... why the heck not? High Hermitage is even closer to the ToJ, than Starfall.

Do we have an age for Darkstar? I expect him to be too old for Aegon, but who knows? He might just be precocious, sometimes it's hard to tell. I can't remember any precise mention of his age... He doesn’t appear much older than Arianne, so I always figured him to be around 20-25 but maybe it’s a misconception on my part. I do remember some posters speculating that Darkstar = Rhaegar reborn however, so the idea of Darkstar = Aegon, merits, at least, a tiny bit of attention. And if sister Rhaenys was killed by the evil usurpers dogs, then Darkstar has a good reason for wanting Myrcella dead. Just a thought. Also, Darkstar's eyes appear almost black, but they are a deep purple. Isn't that...Rhaegar's eye color? and Jon's eyes are 'almost black'.

I don't adhere to the theory that Aegon was at the ToJ, and that Varys really did swap the babes, and I'm rather convinced Aegon died in KL. But all the same, it can't be entirely discounted. But if we are to take this seriously, then IMO, the first order of the day, is to figure out what happened to Aegon? Of course, this becomes irrelevant if Young Griff = Aegon, but I doubt that's the case...

The real Aegon is dead. He was killed alongside his mother and his sister. I have no doubt about that. (f)Aegon is an imposter (although he doesn't know that), who is being used by Varys and Illyrio to take the IT. As for who this (f)Aegon is, one of the most popular theories (and the one I believe in) is that he is a Blackfyre.

Also, Darkstar is too old to be Aegon. I don't think there is anything mysterious about Darkstar's identity: he is who he is and no one else.

[Greymoon]

The real Aegon is dead. He was killed alongside his mother and his sister. I have no doubt about that. (f)Aegon is an imposter (although he doesn't know that), who is being used by Varys and Illyrio to take the IT. As for who this (f)Aegon is, one of the most popular theories (and the one I believe in) is that he is a Blackfyre.

Also, Darkstar is too old to be Aegon. I don't think there is anything mysterious about Darkstar's identity: he is who he is and no one else.

The point I was trying to make - since I believe that Aegon did in fact die in KL - is that if we consider the theory of a baby swap, and Aegon later being hidden at the ToJ, but if Aegon in turn is not Young Griff - then we should ask ourselves where the real Aegon is. We don't know much about Darkstar besides that he has some kind of issue with Lannisters/Baratheons, so I’m not sure we can say there is no mystery surrounding him. It was just a suggestion in any case.

Edit: Even his age we cannot be certain of, can we? Tyrion is obviously mistaken about (f)Aegon's age, I have a brother who is 15 and looks 18. Age can be subjective in many cases.

[Ghost's Shadow]

Darkstar is 25-30 years old.

[Ser Creighton]

That is a supposition, you are going to need to support that with some hint. There is only one hint that Aerys was wary of Rhaegar, and it is a year before the rebellion, he attends Harrenhal Tourney to keep Rhaegar from forming to close an alliance with the major houses. That was Varys' doing. There is no indication of bad feelings between Rhaegar and his father in the intervening time, indeed Aerys depends on him to win the war. When Rhaegar is leaving for the Trident is when he considers that it is time for change, not before. He does mention paths not traveled, but that is not an indication that he planned anything prior.

Well actually planning is one thing, that's only hinted at with HH, however he does say he meant to do it along time ago or something to that effect when speaking of calling a council to deal with his father.

But by and large Aerys was putting his faith in Rhaegar to win the battle and had been searching for him during his entire disappearance because even in the beginning he wanted him to lead the army, that's how Jon Con actually got the job as a fill in for Rhaegar. My own speculation is that Jon Con was not killed by Aerys because he was friends with his son.

Jaime makes several revelations about what was going on during the war. Aerys had searched for Rhaegar everywhere. Rhaegar seemed to be the only one Aerys would listen to going so far as to dispatch a letter asking for help from Tywin. It seems that Rhaegar and this is just a guess, kept attempting to show faith in his father knew it was a dead end path and may have been in some form of denial over his father for awhile. Rhaegar probably had some pretty decent memories of his father from his youth, before he went mad and it is hinted a little that he pointed the finger at people like Varys. But may have eventualyl come to the realization that his dad with bat shit crazy. Perhaps making excuse like "of course he is acting crazy he was a prisoner of war for a year." Or, "ever sense Varys arrived he has been gettng more and more reclusive." Not quotes from the books just examples of some things he may have been going through given what we know of the characters and history.

To be fair to the other poster about direct threats to Aegon by Aerys. Aerys makes one direct threat to everyone, "burn them all."

Though my opinion of Aerys has always been on a good day he could be rather compitent and on a bad day he might ask for a fresh new born baby to be roasted alive for his dinner while he watched and the head pyromancer spanked him with his favorite tickle stick. Your probably wondering why he would use the word fresh in there? Because he is that messed up.

[Greymoon]

Darkstar is 25-30 years old.

How do you know? It's an honest question, because I just can't remember that we have any indication about his age. It seems to me, that all we have is that he's a knight, Arthur's cousin - though we don't know how exactly they are related - and that Arianne considers him handsome and obviously old enough to be her consort.

If it's written in the book, or there's a SSM quote that tells us about his age, I bow to you....however, if all we have to go on are our impressions and no true birth date/age, then the information that he is 25-30 might be erroneous....I judged him to be 20-25, in fact.

Aegon was born in 282, Jon in 283. Jon is 17 in ADWD, right? So that makes Aegon 18/19 yet, Young Griff appears 15/16 according to Tyrion. IMO, an 18 year old appearing 21 is not so unusual. Arianne is 23, her lusting after a man who appears two years younger than herself, is not such a stretch. Just saying it's not really impossible, unless of course, we have a clear age assigned to him.

Either way...If we start from a Aegon's alive but he's not Young Griff perspective, are there any other possibilities for his whereabouts?

[King of Winters]

How do you know? It's an honest question, because I just can't remember that we have any indication about his age. It seems to me, that all we have is that he's a knight, Arthur's cousin - though we don't know how exactly they are related - and that Arianne considers him handsome and obviously old enough to be her consort.

If it's written in the book, or there's a SSM quote that tells us about his age, I bow to you....however, if all we have to go on are our impressions and no true birth date/age, then the information that he is 25-30 might be erroneous....I judged him to be 20-25, in fact.

Aegon was born in 282, Jon in 283. Jon is 17 in ADWD, right? So that makes Aegon 18/19 yet, Young Griff appears 15/16 according to Tyrion. IMO, an 18 year old appearing 21 is not so unusual. Arianne is 23, her lusting after a man who appears two years younger than herself, is not such a stretch. Just saying it's not really impossible, unless of course, we have a clear age assigned to him.

Either way...If we start from a Aegon's alive but he's not Young Griff perspective, are there any other possibilities for his whereabouts?

It's in the app,

He is a beautiful man in his late twenties

[Greymoon]

It's in the app,

Ok then. I didn't really believe it either way. But it would have made for a nice twist...

[Ser Creighton]

How do you know? It's an honest question, because I just can't remember that we have any indication about his age. It seems to me, that all we have is that he's a knight, Arthur's cousin - though we don't know how exactly they are related - and that Arianne considers him handsome and obviously old enough to be her consort.

If it's written in the book, or there's a SSM quote that tells us about his age, I bow to you....however, if all we have to go on are our impressions and no true birth date/age, then the information that he is 25-30 might be erroneous....I judged him to be 20-25, in fact.

Aegon was born in 282, Jon in 283. Jon is 17 in ADWD, right? So that makes Aegon 18/19 yet, Young Griff appears 15/16 according to Tyrion. IMO, an 18 year old appearing 21 is not so unusual. Arianne is 23, her lusting after a man who appears two years younger than herself, is not such a stretch. Just saying it's not really impossible, unless of course, we have a clear age assigned to him.

Either way...If we start from a Aegon's alive but he's not Young Griff perspective, are there any other possibilities for his whereabouts?

Jon is still 16 last I checked, maybe well on his way to 17, but I believe 16 was the closest age comment we have from the books to date. As for Darkstars age

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/4208

So the answer to the question of how old is Darkstar is, ask Ran. Who is currently helping Martin write the World book which may have his age listed in it which means no chance in hell you are getting his age. But it does not appear Martin thinks his age is of much importance.