A Dragonfly Among the Reeds - Is Howland Reed the Grandson of Duncan the Small?

[Lord Varys]

Okay ;-).

Duncan and Jenny married in 239 AC. Duncan seems to have been forced to abidcate immediately thereafter - apparently during the whole crisis caused by the wedding. But we know that Duncan and Aegon V remained on good terms, and that even Jenny was eventually accepted at court. During Jaehaerys II the deaths of both Duncan and Daeron are mentioned as blows to House Targaryen weakening the martial prowess of the royals - suggesting that both Duncan and Daeron played important roles at their father's court and in his administration until their deaths.

It also suggests that Jaehaerys II would have continued to rely on Duncan during his reign had he survived Summerhall.

If the court warmed up to Jenny then the people may also have warmed up to their children - if they had any. Nothing suggests that Duncan lost his status as royal prince. He just gave up his claim to the Iron Throne. This does not necessarily mean that his children were unfit to marry into the royal line, especially if Jenny was well-liked throughout the Realm in the 250s or so.

[Musashisamurai]

I personally think Rhaegar was the dragon born at Summerhall, and that Jon is his son by Lyanna-but if want to continue Jon as Howland's Targ son, then remember Rhaegar's comment to Jaime? "There'll be some changes made." While I think many in the realm would have accepted Rhaegar as king over the Mad King, remember that Rhaegar would be overthrowing his father. He'd be like Renly-the father comes before the son, in this case. Plus, many would be a little skeptical of Rhaegar's sanity given he's kinda just disappeared with a lord paramount's daughter...

Even though crannogmen are looked down upon, Duncan the Small was Aegon's oldest son and seemingly very well-liked, the Rhaegar of his time or Baelor Breakspear. Had Rhaegar perhaps meant to crown Duncan's line, and name himself Hand? This is actually very strategic, as Targaryen's now have two lines and the name is no longer in danger of dying out (we have three Targ's continuing the name, Rhaegar Viserys and Aegon). Rhaegar could have sold the realm of the romanticism of Duncan the Small, and we know that he played the song.

I'm very skeptical of the Rhaegar kidnapped and raped Lyanna, because Ned doesn't hate the guy like we'd expect (though I wouldn't say he holds him in high regard. he thinks, and I quote-Rhaegar probably didn't go whoring. Not a stunning endorsement, not hate either, pretty neutral I think). Plus, Lyanna has many similarities to Sansa, and she falls in love with Loras over a flower (at a tourney) before realizing he forgot about it. The parallel with Rhaegar is pretty strong, more so since Loras's friend compares Margaery to Lyanna in the same chapter I think (who are all linked to roses, the wrong kind)

In this situation, Rhaegar might have been trying to protect Lyanna which fits in the Arthurian influence, from Aerys. But Howland would have been able to protect her way better at Greywater Watch (to be fair, Lyanna could fake her death, go to GW, and marry Howland. No one else would ever know and by the time they did, it'd be too late. Not like Robert could beat Howland in the Neck).

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Okay ;-).

...snip...

suggesting that both Duncan and Daeron played important roles at their father's court and in his administration until their deaths.

It also suggests that Jaehaerys II would have continued to rely on Duncan during his reign had he survived Summerhall.

I fully agree that Duncan played an active, perhaps vital role in the government until his death, even though he had abdicated as Prince of Dragonstone. (And would have continued to do so if he had survived.)

If the court warmed up to Jenny then the people may also have warmed up to their children - if they had any. Nothing suggests that Duncan lost his status as royal prince. He just gave up his claim to the Iron Throne. This does not necessarily mean that his children were unfit to marry into the royal line, especially if Jenny was well-liked throughout the Realm in the 250s or so.

Duncan's title, Prince of Dragonflies, can't be considered to be a real title. It's simply not in the same category as Prince of Dragonstone or Prince of Summerhall. It's closer to mockery. His status as a true prince is uncertain, and might well have been revoked as part of the deal with Lyonel Baratheon.

It is very clear that Jenny's claim to be descended from the "long-vanished kings of the First Men" was not accepted. Yandel explains Aegon's reaction -

..., but to countenance the marriage of the heir to the throne to a commoner of uncertain birth was beyond him.

Also note Jenny was called Lady Jenny "by courtesy" - another sign she was considered to be of common birth. (TWoIaF, p108)

Princes don't marry commoners due to the belief that such marriages taint the blood line. That is the very basis of the noble-smallfolk split in ranked societies. The nobles claim to have "better blood". The children would undoubtedly be unacceptable marriage partners for the rest of the royal family. It would make no difference if the court "warmed" to them. Laws of succession don't depend on court popularity.

As to the validity of Jenny's claim, there are two possible reasons such a claim might be rejected.

1 - The line of descent cannot be verified, and is in doubt. If Jenny claimed to be descended from House Mudd (as her residing among the ruins of Oldstones might imply), this would be a valid objection. It is hard to believe, however, that anyone would claim a verifiable descent from a house that went extinct thousands of years ago.

2 - The line can be verified, but the line's claim is not accepted. This would be the case for anyone who claimed descent from the Marsh Kings, who, as Yandel points out, are not considered to have been real kings by those in the south. It is very likely that House Reed is directly descended from the Marsh Kings.

[Lord Varys]

Ibbison,

I think we cannot be certain yet what Aegon V's position was in the whole Jenny affair. I expect him actually being in favor of the match or rather not really dead-set opposed to it in principle - he would have been against it because of the betrothal to Lyonel's daughter but not necessarily in principle.

Yandel portrays Egg as a man who cared about the noble bloodline to some degree but I'm not sure this is actually the case. It is the establishment - the High Septon, the Grand Maester, and (the majority of) Egg's council - who demanded Duncan's abdication not Aegon V himself.

If Egg had felt betrayed by the whole thing or had been against the marriage in principle Duncan most likely would have been severely punished - that is, he and Jenny may have been banished from court, sent into exile, or faced a more capital punishment. I don't think there was a deal made with the Laughing Storm, either, besides the trial-by-combat and Egg's gesture to marry Rhaelle to Ormund.

Nothing suggests that Duncan himself lost his status as a prince, or that his children - if he had any - were considered to be baseborn. They would have been cut out of the line of succession or come after Jaehaerys' and Daeron's but it is a stretch that they were to be considered to be unworthy to be married back in the Targaryen line.

A completely different thing:

Why would a Targaryen-Reed side with Ned against Rhaegar/Aerys and involve himself in a fight against the Targaryen Kingsguard? I guess we could assume that there was an estrangement between Aerys and Duncan's branch but there is no proof for that. And if Steffon was raised at court with Jaehaerys' children why did Aegon V not do the same with Duncan's descendants. Duncan's children would have been at court until his death.

Aerys' search for a bride for Rhaegar suggests an obsession with Valyrian blood. Whether the Targaryens (or Westerosi nobility in general) were afraid of unworthy or impure blood is not yet clear. For instance, I imagine that a widely accepted elitism on the purity of blood would have prevented a match between Jena Dondarrion - the descendant of some lowborn messenger - and the Prince of Dragonstone (that is, unless you entertain the idea that Jena may have been a Targaryen cousin through the female line).

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Ibbison,

I think we cannot be certain yet what Aegon V's position was in the whole Jenny affair. I expect him actually being in favor of the match or rather not really dead-set opposed to it in principle - he would have been against it because of the betrothal to Lyonel's daughter but not necessarily in principle.

Yandel explicitly states that Aegon did all he could to have the marriage undone. (BTW, this implies that Duncan and Jenny married without Aegon's approval, and presented him with a fait accompli.) He might not have objected to Duncan taking Jenny as a paramour, but a marriage to a "commoner" would be out of the question. Egg may have had sympathy for the smallfolk and tried to improve their lot, but he's still a noble through and through. Egg may have married for love, but he married into one of the oldest houses in Westeros.

Yandel portrays Egg as a man who cared about the noble bloodline to some degree but I'm not sure this is actually the case. It is the establishment - the High Septon, the Grand Maester, and (the majority of) Egg's council - who demanded Duncan's abdication not Aegon V himself.

See above. Feel free to be sure.

If Egg had felt betrayed by the whole thing or had been against the marriage in principle Duncan most likely would have been severely punished - that is, he and Jenny may have been banished from court, sent into exile, or faced a more capital punishment. I don't think there was a deal made with the Laughing Storm, either, besides the trial-by-combat and Egg's gesture to marry Rhaelle to Ormund.

Excluding Duncan and his potential progeny was a pretty harsh punishment by itself. But here's an interesting question - what would have happened if Lyonel beat Dunk? (Assume that Dunk was forced to yield, instead of Lyonel. Everyone lives.) Would Lyonel have kept his new crown, and the Stormlands allowed to remain independent of the IT? Unlikely. Perhaps Dunk's victory saved Duncan from banishment (since a Trial by Combat is seen as an appeal to the gods).

Nothing suggests that Duncan himself lost his status as a prince, or that his children - if he had any - were considered to be baseborn. They would have been cut out of the line of succession or come after Jaehaerys' and Daeron's but it is a stretch that they were to be considered to be unworthy to be married back in the Targaryen line.

The title "Prince of Dragonflies" itself indicates a loss of status of some sort. The children's status is not a stretch at all. You are conveniently ignoring the very nature of a differentiated society. Nobles marry nobles, or they cease to be nobles. Class identity is the basis of the society, and class is based on blood. That's how it works. If Duncan had children and they weren't considered to be commoners, there would be no way to keep them from the throne in preference to Jaehaerys. Primogeniture counts. You're either noble and at the top of the line, or you're commoner and out. You don't just get penalized 15 yards. And if you're a commoner, you're unworthy to wed the rest of the line.

A completely different thing:

Why would a Targaryen-Reed side with Ned against Rhaegar/Aerys and involve himself in a fight against the Targaryen Kingsguard? I guess we could assume that there was an estrangement between Aerys and Duncan's branch but there is no proof for that. And if Steffon was raised at court with Jaehaerys' children why did Aegon V not do the same with Duncan's descendants. Duncan's children would have been at court until his death.

Reeds are sworn to House Stark, and are famously loyal to them. Once Duncan and Jenny's children were cut out of the succession and assumed their mother's house name, their loyalties changed, too, although it no doubt caused them much grief to fight against their former family. In civil wars, family members often fight against each other without becoming estranged. That's part of the tragedy of civil wars. Loyalties divide families.

Duncan's children, cut out of the succession by their father's decision, not their own, would have been seen as a threat to Jaehaerys and his children. They may have resented their father's decision, or it was feared that they would come to. Keeping them away from court, allowing or forcing them to take their mother's name and requiring that they stay in the Neck, would be a no-brainer.

Aerys' search for a bride for Rhaegar suggests an obsession with Valyrian blood. Whether the Targaryens (or Westerosi nobility in general) were afraid of unworthy or impure blood is not yet clear. For instance, I imagine that a widely accepted elitism on the purity of blood would have prevented a match between Jena Dondarrion - the descendant of some lowborn messenger - and the Prince of Dragonstone (that is, unless you entertain the idea that Jena may have been a Targaryen cousin through the female line).

As to the Baelor-Jena match, it's a rather inconvenient fact for the noble houses of Westeros that they all were non-noble at one point in their histories. They all came from somewhere common originally. Once ennobled (which is usually seen as a quasi-magical or religiously miraculous event) they then become worthy. New houses marry lesser nobles for a while, until time and fame allows them to rise higher. The Dondarrions had been noble for many hundreds of years. Not to mention that Daeron II had far different attitudes and priorities than Aerys II. There's no sign the Daeron ever tried to hatch dragon eggs, so Valyrian blood purity probably meant little to him. Aerys had different plans.

All your objections are based on "I think ... I expect ... I'm not sure ..." They aren't backed by evidence, and they run contrary to what we know of Westerosi society, and nobility-based societies in general.

[Lord Varys]

Hm. I guess I should have taken on this whole thing in broader strokes.

As of yet, we have three Dunk & Egg stories. Until the App was released pretty much nobody suggested Aegon V might have been a 'reformer king'. Most people expected his time with Dunk made him a very just and great king whose reign faced some trouble due to the marriage stuff and rebellions.

Young Egg got his first 'big lesson' to form his character in TSS where he first witnessed the suffering of the smallfolk and the capricious whims of the lords firsthand. In the stories we have read so far he still retains a lot of his 'Targaryen aloofness' in private but I guess this is going to change. Egg may become much more 'peasant-like' than we actually expect him to become. Thus I'd not proclaim he is a 'noble through and through' until we actually see that he is. In fact, I imagine he remained a royalist until the end of his days but may have grown to resent nobility and aristocracy quite a bit.

You cite the Betha match as proof that Egg remains a noble at heart. But we also know he developed a distaste for incest for some reason throughout his life, and we don't yet know how he meets and falls in love with Betha. If he does meet her as 'Egg' then it is very likely that this is not a 'prince disguised as lowborn squire falls in love with noble girl' story but rather a story in which Egg and Betha are both ignorant about each other's identity, and thus Egg may have been entirely willing to marry a lowborn girl he fell in love with. Not to mention that he would have done so, anyway, had the love of his life been indeed a common girl. If Egg is anything then he is stubborn. And he had never had any reason to expect to become king so there would have been no reason to not follow his heart.

Now we have Yandel's take on Aegon V. Considering that George actually wants to tell Egg's story in detail it is very unlikely that Yandel's view on Aegon V is as accurate as his other historical pieces on the Targaryen kings. That assumption is my basis for the assertion that we may have only a distorted and incomplete view on the whole Jenny affair - even more so, if this whole thing is going to turn to be connected to and (partially) uncovered during the main series - which would be the case if the Reeds had Targaryen blood, I assume.

Having established that, Yandel claiming that Aegon V did everything he could to unmake the marriage doesn't make it so. 'Everything' includes the possibility of capital punishment, namely the execution of Jenny. That would have ended the marriage and enabled Duncan to marry Lyonel's daughter. Clearly Egg was only willing to go to a certain point.

Usually an abdication is a big deal for a big deal for a royal family - note how the relations between Edward VIII and the other Windsors declined in the aftermath of his own abdication. But with Aegon V and Duncan nothing of this sort seems to have happened. He wasn't banished from court or cut out of his father's heart as a disappointment and a traitor. And we all know that closeness to the court and throne always means power - which could mean that neither Duncan's nor his children's claims to the Iron Throne were as invalid as they may appear on first glance. Maester Aemon was considered to be a threat to Egg's rule, and many people argue Prince Maegor may have been, too, despite the fact that most lords of the Realm dismissed Maegor's claim and Aemon himself explicitly gave up his own claims to the throne.

If baseborn bastards - Trystane Truefyre and Gaemon Palehair - can lay claim to the Iron Throne the children of Jenny could, too. I'd agree with you that the official take on the matter was that it was settled when Duncan abdicated but that would not necessarily have been the end of it - what do you think happened if Jaehaerys and Aerys had died at Summerhall, and Duncan and Jenny had survived? Who would have succeeded Aegon V?

Two other examples which seems to outright contradict your assumption about 'commoner blood excluding you from the Iron Throne' are Addam and Alyn Velaryon, formerly known as Addam and Alyn of Hull. There mother Marilda of Hull is a confirmed commoner yet Alyn Velaryon was married to Baela Targaryen, became Lord of Driftmark, and was most likely Aegon III's Heir Presumptive prior to the return of Prince Viserys (due to the fact that he was officially descended from Laenor Velaryon).

As to the dragon vs. dragonflies thing:

That is a theme that's already in the Dunk & Egg stories. The 'dragon' stands for court life and career, and the dragonflies for the life of a hedge knight. Dunk seems to be stuck with the dragon in the end, although I'm expecting a lot of dragonflies episodes before he joins the KG. Duncan chooses the dragonflies, and I think his moniker is a conscious in-universe reference to the youth of his own father as well as a recognition of the former lifestyle of Ser Duncan the Tall. It is not a name that is supposed to mark him as a commoner.

While I agree with you real world assessment of noble blood and all, things seem to be less strict in Westeros. That is hinted at by the rise of competent lowborn people (Septon Barth, Littlefinger etc.) at court as well as by the fact that various people (Tyrion, Davos) tell us convincingly that ennobled new men have reason to believe and expect that their sons and grandsons will intermarry with the other noble families sooner rather than later. Of course there are the ancient and most highborn snobs but they make up the uppermost class of the nobles/royals.

A younger Targaryen prince or cousin would thus not have faced such a challenge to his marriage as Duncan had. And note that it is said that Egg's marriage to Betha Blackwood had also caused a scandal if he had been Heir Apparent then - which means that Jena's marriage to Baelor should have raised the very same opposition from the same people/establishment as Egg's marriage. The fact that it didn't has to be explained somehow. Both the Arryns, the Daynes, and the Blackwoods are much more noble in themselves than the Dondarrions and Penroses - since they are all very ancient houses and former royalty, whereas the Dondarrions are 'up-jumped messengers'. The fact that Daeron II chose matched from rather prestigious houses for his two younger sons strongly suggests that Jena and Aelinor both had Targaryen blood or were for some other reason 'noble enough' to cause no objection.

As to the trial-by-combat:

Considering that various people - Daemon II Blackfyre, Ser Cortnay Penrose, etc. - suggest single combat to decide a matter I'd not be surprised if Aegon V and the Laughing Storm agreed to settle their dispute this way, too. Which would mean: If Lyonel wins he gets what he wants, and if Dunk wins Aegon V gets what he wants. Whether Lyonel would have insisted on becoming an independent Storm King again or whether Prince Duncan's life was at stake there, too, I don't know. But I guess we'll find out eventually. However, I doubt that this trial-by-combat was meaningless - the fate of the whole Targaryen dynasty or at least of Egg's crown may have been at stake there. If the Baratheon secession had been accepted by the Iron Throne the Realm would have fragmented again.

I imagine the subsequent marriage between Ormund and Rhaelle was a way to restore the Targaryen-Baratheon friendship again. Up to that point Egg and Lyonel seem to have been good friends and my guess is that they both wanted to reconcile afterwards.

Crannogmen stuff:

I don't think we still can go with the assumption that Jenny was a crannogwoman as nothing suggests as much. It also seems that Howland is of the same generation as Ned, perhaps even a few years younger, which should suggest that he is Duncan's grandson. If you want to go with that theory it would make more sense to assume that a daughter of Duncan and Jenny's ended up marrying into House Reed, becoming Howland's mother.

Oldstones is not the Neck, and there is no reason to assume that the old Marsh King line is still alive outside of House Stark (who married the daughter of the last Marsh King), or that a crannogwoman would hang out at Oldstones. As long as it is not confirmed that the Reeds were closely related to or a cadet branch of the house of the Marsh Kings I'm not assuming they are closely related - especially not considering the hints that the crannogmen are a more egalitarian society who may be electing/choosing their 'kings'.

There is no reason to assume that Duncan and Jenny's children would not bear the royal name of House Targaryen.

And blood should be thicker than water. If the Reeds were Targaryen cousins there would have been an easy way to not get into trouble - stay out of the rebellion. Howland did not even back Robb in his efforts to avenge his dear friend Ned - why the hell should we think he felt obliged to fight at Ned's side in the Rebellion against his own kin? If he can effectively abandon the Starks in the War of the Five Kings he could have done the same during Robert's Rebellion.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Hm. I guess I should have taken on this whole thing in broader strokes.

As of yet, we have three Dunk & Egg stories.

... snip...

In fact, I imagine he remained a royalist until the end of his days but may have grown to resent nobility and aristocracy quite a bit.

I don't see any sign of resentment, nor do I think that might have developed. Kings, though they ruled over nobles. were also seen as being "the first noble" - they were part of the same class as the nobles, and were expected to share their sympathies. Aegon V comes off as more of a Benevolent Despot-type king. The nobles resented him.

and we don't yet know how he meets and falls in love with Betha. If he does meet her as 'Egg' then it is very likely that this is not a 'prince disguised as lowborn squire falls in love with noble girl' story but rather a story in which Egg and Betha are both ignorant about each other's identity,

There's nothing likely about that at all. That's simply how you imagine the story. There's a thousand other ways it might have happened. As Dunk and Egg have more adventures, remaining incognito will become harder and harder. Lord Blackwood was part of Bloodraven's force at Whitewalls. Not only will he be able to recognize Aegon in the future, stories and rumors about Egg's role in ending BFR2 are probably being told in Raventree Hall already. Berha may be getting ideas long before she meets Egg.

Now we have Yandel's take on Aegon V.

... snip...

Maester Aemon was considered to be a threat to Egg's rule, and many people argue Prince Maegor may have been, too, despite the fact that most lords of the Realm dismissed Maegor's claim and Aemon himself explicitly gave up his own claims to the throne.

Yandel's biases are fairly predictable. He's pro-noble, since they are his target audience. He takes their side against Aegon's reform policies. He has no motivation to distort the Duncan-Jenny affair, other than to avoid reminding Robert Baratheon that some loose ends of the Targ family tree are still hanging around. You "asserted" a claim of inaccuracy, you didn't "establish" it. If you wish to, you need to provide a motivation for Yandel.

Capital punishment for Jenny was not a possibility, as she committed no crime. If pressed, Duncan would have stood as her champion in a trial by combat, a scenario Aegon would do anything to avoid.

The obvious reason for the lack of estrangement between Aegon and Duncan is that Aegon himself married for love, although he didn't break an oath to a powerful and trusted ally by doing so. Aegon didn't like what Duncan did, and was probably infuriated by it, but he understood it.

There is a key difference between the cases of Maegor and Aemon on the one hand, and Duncan on the other. Maegor and Aemon had better claims than Aegon, and thus were a threat to him, whether they wanted to be or not. Duncan was not a threat to Aegon - he, and any possible children, were a threat to Jaehaerys. As long as Aegon lived, Duncan didn't pose a problem. His children, however, would pose a problem for the future, for reasons I have cited previously.

If baseborn bastards - Trystane Truefyre and Gaemon Palehair - can lay claim to the Iron Throne the children of Jenny could, too. I'd agree with you that the official take on the matter was that it was settled when Duncan abdicated but that would not necessarily have been the end of it - what do you think happened if Jaehaerys and Aerys had died at Summerhall, and Duncan and Jenny had survived? Who would have succeeded Aegon V?

No one took the claims of Trystane or Gaemon seriously. The two were simply being used by others as figureheads. To answer your succession question - Rhaegar, if he survived, followed by Steffon Baratheon., depending on the actions of Shaera and Rhaella. A Steffon-Rhaella marriage would be my best bet.

Two other examples which seems to outright contradict your assumption about 'commoner blood excluding you from the Iron Throne' are Addam and Alyn Velaryon, formerly known as Addam and Alyn of Hull. There mother Marilda of Hull is a confirmed commoner yet Alyn Velaryon was married to Baela Targaryen, became Lord of Driftmark, and was most likely Aegon III's Heir Presumptive prior to the return of Prince Viserys (due to the fact that he was officially descended from Laenor Velaryon).

"Most likely" is an unsupported assumption on your part. Rhaena and her potential all-noble children might well have been preferred. Or perhaps Alyn would be a suitable consort for Baela, and any children born after his legitimization would be considered acceptable. We don't have the information, and guessing doesn't get us anywhere.

If you need examples of how marriages to commoners are treated by major houses, you need look no further than House Westerling and House Arryn.

Gawen Westerling married Sybell Spicer, whose grandfather was a trader in saffron and spices and whose grandmother was Maggy the Frog. Kevan would have nothing to do with Jeyne, and apparently no one else of high birth would, either. Amongst the Arryns, the poor branches that marry nobly are held in much higher esteem than the Gulltown Arryns, who married merchants.

There it is, right from the story. How do you think the Targs would react to commoners?

Crannogmen stuff:

There are many suggestions that Jenny may have been a crannogwoman. The association with Oldstones suggests a connection to House Mudd, from which the crannogmen might well have descended. Her possible "magical" abilities fit in well with what we know of crannogmen. The distrust of the locals fits. The friendship with a CotF fits.

It is highly unlikely that the last Marsh King's daughter was the last of her line (total house extinctions are not all that common in the absence of Tywin Lannister), and very likely that after she left for Winterfell the marshes were ruled by a relative. There are no hints the the crannogmen ever elected their kings - "first among equals" =/= election - and no indication the Neck ever since has been ruled by anyone but a Reed. They are obviously the premier house in the Neck for some reason.

There is no reason to assume that Duncan and Jenny's children would not bear the royal name of House Targaryen.

There is every reason. How else do you exclude someone in good legal standing with a superior claim from the succession? (Short of forcing them to take the Black, the Faith, or the Chain?) In ASoS Tyrion I, Tywin told Tyrion that Casterly Rock would never pass to him. But if Tywin had died of natural causes that night, Tyrion's claim would have held over Kevan, because he had the right to the name and he had the superior claim by lineage.

And blood should be thicker than water. If the Reeds were Targaryen cousins there would have been an easy way to not get into trouble - stay out of the rebellion. Howland did not even back Robb in his efforts to avenge his dear friend Ned - why the hell should we think he felt obliged to fight at Ned's side in the Rebellion against his own kin? If he can effectively abandon the Starks in the War of the Five Kings he could have done the same during Robert's Rebellion.

There's no sign that Howland didn't support Robb. In fact he was probably doing exactly what Robb wanted him to do - hold the Neck and the Causeway. Robb didn't ask for anything else because Robb favored heavy cavalry, which Reed couldn't supply. The Reeds have been loyal to the Starks for as long as we know. A better question is why should Duncan's (possible) sons care about the family that dissed their mother and kicked them out of the line of succession?

The other thing to consider is Duncan's pride, and Jenny's. If the nobles of Westeros were intent on ignoring Jenny's claims to nobility, why should Duncan care about the nobles of Westeros? He could just as easily reject them as they can reject her. Once old enough, his children could return to the crannogs were they would be honored, instead of remain in King's landing where they would be despised. Jenny claimed to be descended from kings. If the lords of Westeros won't accept her as a proper match for the crown prince, why should she let her children live amongst them? She and her children will be accepted in the North, at least.

[Lord Varys]

Nobility:

Well, if we juggle around real world concepts of royalty and nobility then there is a clear distinction there. Nobles usually aren't royals and vice versa. They are also not fit to marry into royal houses or deemed worthy to be invited to royal weddings. The best present-day example would be the House of Grimaldi which still rules Monaco yet is deemed to be below the (former) ruling royal families of Europe due to their questionable ancestry.

George's noble world does not know or does not care about that distinction but this does not mean Egg considers himself to be the first noble. In fact, his whole reformist agenda seems to have been against the core concept of nobility as he was trying to take away the powers that made the nobility noble in the first place - that is all the rights and privileges they had over the people living on their land, etc. We should very much assume that Aegon V was intending/attempting to take away the nobility's right pits and gallows, for example, as he had experienced firsthand in TSS what this might mean for the average peasant.

Egg and Betha:

How I imagine they might have met doesn't matter. My point there was that the important thing about Egg is that he married for love - which, if 'love' was the important feature there (and this seems to be the case since he apparently had a soft for his children also marrying 'for love') and not the noble blood of his beloved, makes it likely that he would also have married Betha if she had been a commoner.

Yandel not mentioning Dunk & Egg during the Second Rebellion makes it actually quite likely that their presence there was hushed up. It was the Gallows Knight who was there, remember, not Ser Duncan the Tall - and he didn't even display his personal arms.

Even if Lord Blackwood ends up hearing tales about Prince Aegon's involvement in the affair, it is far from certain that Egg and Betha will meet each other for the first at court or castle. If 'The Village Hero' features their first meeting it is most likely going to happen in Pennytree, and Egg is most likely not going to meet her as Prince Aegon.

The Duncan-Aegon relationship over Jenny:

Yandel does not give us any sources on his account on the reign of Aegon V. From his narrative it is clear that he either could not or would not provide a detailed account. He claims that Aegon V was against the Duncan-Jenny match, but if he was really dead-set against it he could have forced all his children to marry their betrothed.

Nothing suggests that commoners have the right to a trial-by-combat. Duncan could thus not have been able to champion her cause and may himself have lost his right to demand such a trial if we go with your interpretation and assume that Duncan lost his status as a prince or noble when he married Jenny.

Which means if Aegon V had proclaimed that this Jenny woman was a sorceress who had bewitched his dear son and enslaved him magically he could have easily have created 'a reason' to execute her and thus unmake the marriage. A good old accident - like Black Walder suggested for Jeyne Westerling - would also have done the trick (and if arranged properly Aegon V could even have kept Duncan as his heir, if the involvement of the king could have been kept secret). And who knows, if the queen committing adultery is considered to be treason and punishable by death in Westeros it is also possible that 'seducing a royal prince who is already betrothed to another' is also considered a grievous offense - or could be construed as such on the fly. After all, the Jenny affair was causing massive problems for Aegon V and the Targaryen dynasty, and people would have come up with all sorts of suggestions to resolve it. 'Destroying the woman' would have been the obvious and easiest way to do it which is why Tywin took it later with Tysha. Aegon V easily could have done a variation of that theme. That he did not could be a hint that Egg was not completely opposed to Duncan's marriage.

Another way could have been to accuse and punish Duncan himself for his disobedience. Not making good on a marriage contract was a grievous offense - punishable by, I'd think, exile or even death. And a trial-by-combat would not have been an option there as the crime was committed openly - Duncan had married Jenny and was living with her, he could not possibly deny that. Not to mention that Aegon V could actually have subjected his son (or Jenny) to torture until they decided 'of their own free will' to ask for an annulment. That this kind of stuff works we see in AFfC with the Blue Bard.

In Jaehaerys-Shaera's case at least Jaehaerys could have married his betrothed if Aegon V had decided to force Shaera to join the Faith - the Silent Sisters, for example. That would have permanently freed Jaehaerys for his match. And he most certainly could have forced Daeron to marry Olenna.

Duncan as claimant after his abdication:

I'm not talking about Duncan as a rival for Aegon V. He was only his father's heir. I'm talking about an unclear succession, about Duncan having or delivering second thoughts about his decision to not claiming the throne. It is not unheard of that sons vie for the crown of their father/the right to succeed him while he is still alive. Just because there was no open quarrel about this thing while Aegon V was still alive doesn't mean it would not come up later on - just as it did when Viserys I died - and if Jaehaerys II had succeeded while Duncan was still alive then the situation would have been exactly the same as the situation between Aemon and Aegon V in 233 AC. A younger brother comes before an elder brother.

If Duncan still had friends at court and was popular and influential he could have tried to or actually brought down both Jaehaerys II or Aerys II.

The fact that Duncan and Jenny were very popular among the people and the favorite theme of the singers strongly suggested that they had a solid power base among the smallfolk, or that they could have such a base if they wanted to tap into the potential.

Other dubious claimants:

Trystane Truefyre and Gaemon Palehair were pretenders to the Iron Throne. You should not dismiss them all that easily. Trystane even sat on the Iron Throne, and had Aegon II executed Aegon the Younger and died of his wounds shortly thereafter there wouldn't have been a Targaryen restoration. House Truefyre may have prevailed.

If Duncan had survived Summerhall but Jaehaerys and Aerys had died then Duncan would have been a very serious contender for the crown. He was male, and the eldest son of the dead king. All other claimants were female or males from the female line which were excluded from the succession according to the rigid interpretation of the Great Council of 101. Duncan could have cited that, and argued that in light of the recent developments his claim was the best, regardless what he may have said or done in the past. Whether he would have prevailed is another matter. But then, we could also imagine Steffon had died at Summerhall, too (or from some other cause). Then it would have been either Duncan or women.

Succession of Aegon III prior to Viserys' return:

Ran has hinted at the fact that the regents were discussing this topic. And it is quite obvious that Corlys had married Alyn to Baela - the elder of Daemon's twin-girls by Laena, and once betrothed to Rhaenyra's heir Jacaerys - to ensure such a succession. This match must have been arranged while Corlys was still alive as the other regents weren't fans of Alyn, and may have decided to marry Baela to another man had they been allowed to make that decision. Rhaena was married to Corwyn Corbray for the first half of the Regency and had no children from him. Her husband could only have claimed the throne in her name but Alyn had Targaryen blood of his own and was married to the elder daughter of Daemon and Laena.

Westerling/Arryn stuff:

The Westerlings are impoverished nobles who ended up lowering themselves to marry into a merchant family of very questionable heritage. Those are two reasons against them, not just one. And it is Lannister elitism speaking there. Lyonel Corbray marries a rich merchant girl and he remains the Lord Corbray, and intends for his son to succeed him.

We have no idea how noble the Gulltown Arryns still are. For all we know they might have branched off the main tree centuries ago.

House Mudd:

TWoIaF does not suggest that the Mudds ruled the Neck. In fact, if I recall correctly then even Tristifer IV did not rule the Neck which makes it very unlikely that those two First Men kingdoms liked each other, were allied, or married one another, let alone that the crannogmen elite was somehow descended from the Mudds. Oldstones is also not exactly near the Neck so I see no reason to assume there is a connection to the crannogmen - but, possibly, to other traditions of the First Men and Children still alive in the Riverlands at that point.

House Reed:

Just assuming that the Reeds were the royal house when there still were kings does not do the trick. There might be a reason why the last Marsh King has not been referred to as Reed - because he may not have been a Reed. Being first among equals opens up the chance that kingship was not truly inherited but perhaps shifted from family to family depending on who was truly first among equals (i.e. most powerful). I'd agree, though, that the Reeds ruled the Neck since the Starks conquered it.

Naming stuff:

Please give me one example in which a noble has to give up his father's name. There is none to my knowledge. Thus the assumption that this happened with Duncan's children is simply far-fetched to say the least. Tyrion's family had no bearing on his claim. If Tywin had died unexpectedly Tyrion could have tried to push his claim but whether he had succeeded in the matter is a very open question. Especially with Cersei influencing either Robert or Joffrey in her favor - the Crown certainly could have decided to pass over Tyrion in accordance with the express will of the late Lord Tywin. Tyrion hardly had the incomes to raise an army or convince the Lords of the West to fight for him.

Howland and Robb:

Nothing suggests that Robb ever contacted or talked to Howland Reed about a crannogmen participation in the war prior to his plan in ASoS. Moat Cailin was held by other people.

Duncan's possible sons would have been raised at the court of Aegon V for two decades of their lives. Duncan and Jenny lived at court, and so would have their children. That's not in doubt. They would also have been raised in the expectancy to not inherit the Iron Throne so they, personally, would not necessarily have felt tricked out of their inheritance or felt mistreated.

Duncan and Jenny remained at court until the end of their life - in fact, it is not unlikely that Egg gave Summerhall to them and their children following Duncan's abdication as Prince of Dragonstone and Jaehaerys subsequent installation as Prince of Dragonstone - Jaehaerys may have been Prince of Summerhall before he became Prince of Dragonstone, so this whole abdication thing could have been a title switch. Even if Daeron was Prince of Summerhall he died without issue in 253 which means that the castle would have ended up sort of by default in Duncan's hands as Jaehaerys was Prince of Dragonstone.

[Cladinator]

Not to hijack the thread, but why was Duncan the Small passed over because of his love for Jenny? I haven't been able to find any information that explains this. Why would his marriage to Jenny disqualify his succession?

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Nobility:

Well, if we juggle around real world concepts of royalty and nobility then there is a clear distinction there. Nobles usually aren't royals and vice versa.

You are incorrect. In the Middle Ages, the relationship between royalty and nobility is exactly as I explained it. Modern examples are beyond irrelevent.

In fact, his whole reformist agenda seems to have been against the core concept of nobility as he was trying to take away the powers that made the nobility noble in the first place - that is all the rights and privileges they had over the people living on their land, etc. We should very much assume that Aegon V was intending/attempting to take away the nobility's right pits and gallows, for example, as he had experienced firsthand in TSS what this might mean for the average peasant.

Aegon is portrayed as a reformer, not an anti-noble zealot. We don't know the extent of the reforms he proposed. Yandel is pro-noble, and no doubt exaggerates the impact the reforms would have had, much the same way that in our times the proposal of a minor tax increase on the rich is greeted by prophecies of doom by those opposed. We should not assume anything. Aegon might well have tried to limit the severity of punishments for various crimes (as Aegon the Conqueror himself did), but he would never have thought of revoking the rights of justice entirely. The crown lacked the resources to take over the job, for one thing.

The Duncan-Aegon relationship over Jenny:

......

Which means if Aegon V had proclaimed that this Jenny woman was a sorceress who had bewitched his dear son and enslaved him magically he could have easily have created 'a reason' to execute her and thus unmake the marriage. ... That he did not could be a hint that Egg was not completely opposed to Duncan's marriage.

The rather obvious meaning of Yandel's "His Grace did all that he could" is that Aegon did everything he legally could consistant with his own moral code. As I explained, since Aegon himself married for love, he would not have felt comfortable destroying his eldest son for the same offense. As I stated above, he opposed his son's actions, but he understood them.

Duncan as claimant after his abdication:

Just because there was no open quarrel about this thing while Aegon V was still alive doesn't mean it would not come up later on - just as it did when Viserys I died - and if Jaehaerys II had succeeded while Duncan was still alive then the situation would have been exactly the same as the situation between Aemon and Aegon V in 233 AC. A younger brother comes before an elder brother.

Duncan's status was determined to everyone's satisfaction long before Aegon died. It had to be in order to placate Lyonel Baratheon. We don't know the details of the settlement, but whatever those terms were, they allowed Duncan to remain in KL while, at the same time, having some reliable mechanism to keep him out of the succession. An oath that many would consider reversible (like Aemon's) wouldn't serve. Something more profound was necessary.

The fact that Duncan and Jenny were very popular among the people and the favorite theme of the singers strongly suggested that they had a solid power base among the smallfolk, or that they could have such a base if they wanted to tap into the potential.

Popularity amongst the smallfolk does not provide any political power at all in a Medieval society. The lords have the power because the lords have the military force.

Other dubious claimants:

Trystane Truefyre and Gaemon Palehair were pretenders to the Iron Throne. You should not dismiss them all that easily. Trystane even sat on the Iron Throne, and had Aegon II executed Aegon the Younger and died of his wounds shortly thereafter there wouldn't have been a Targaryen restoration. House Truefyre may have prevailed.

The only reason their claims are even mentioned in the histories is because there was no legitimate authority in KL at the time to swat them down. They deserve to be dismissed with ease.

If Duncan had survived Summerhall but Jaehaerys and Aerys had died then Duncan would have been a very serious contender for the crown.

Such a tragedy would very likely be taken as a sign from the gods that Duncan's case had been judged unfairly, that Jenny did indeed have a rightful claim to noble blood, and that he should have never been forced to abdicate. This would especially be true if Steffon died as well. On those grounds, Duncan or a descendant might have been crowned. But that didn't happen, so this is speculation.

Succession of Aegon III prior to Viserys' return:

The status of the throne and the succession in the immediate aftermath of the Dance was so precarious and without precedent that I doubt we can draw conclusions about its status as a precedent in later years, other than "We'll set aside the rules for awhile as long as everyone agrees to do so" might be an acceptable course of action in times that the rules didn't anticipate. Nothing is set in stone, and the crown itself seemed to be standing on quicksand in 131 AC.

Westerling/Arryn stuff:

The Westerlings are impoverished nobles who ended up lowering themselves to marry into a merchant family of very questionable heritage. Those are two reasons against them, not just one. And it is Lannister elitism speaking there. Lyonel Corbray marries a rich merchant girl and he remains the Lord Corbray, and intends for his son to succeed him.

Lyonel might intend that, but Lyn may actually use that against him. That might well been part of Lyn's deal with LF. Still, when an exception is made (and there is always a possibility of exceptions) money is usually a factor. The Westerlings won't be boycotted forever, but it will take 2-4 generations of proper noble marriages to be accepted again. And if that is an example of Lannister elitism, how much more elitist are the Targaryens?

If Jenny's claims of royal descent are disallowed, she doesn't even have money (not that the Targs needed money).

We should also not forget that the charge of "commoner" against Jenny may be covering up the real problem, if indeed she was a crannogman. Anti-crannogman prejudice is certainly real south of the Neck.

House Mudd:

TWoIaF does not suggest that the Mudds ruled the Neck. In fact, if I recall correctly then even Tristifer IV did not rule the Neck which makes it very unlikely that those two First Men kingdoms liked each other, were allied, or married one another, let alone that the crannogmen elite was somehow descended from the Mudds. Oldstones is also not exactly near the Neck so I see no reason to assume there is a connection to the crannogmen - but, possibly, to other traditions of the First Men and Children still alive in the Riverlands at that point.

My contention is that the crannogman only came into existence as refugees from the Andal conquest of the Riverlands. The house names are too eerily similar to House Mudd to be a coincidence. Oldstones is actually quite near the Neck, and at the time of Tristifer IV's death House Frey and the Twins did not lie between them.

House Reed:

Just assuming that the Reeds were the royal house when there still were kings does not do the trick. There might be a reason why the last Marsh King has not been referred to as Reed - because he may not have been a Reed.

Or that no wants to be reminded of that. Outside of that, most of the leading crannog houses probably can legitimately claim descent from the Marsh kings, just as all the Reach Houses can claim descent from the Gardeners. The pre-eminance of the post-king Reeds must be based on something.

Being first among equals opens up the chance that kingship was not truly inherited but perhaps shifted from family to family depending on who was truly first among equals (i.e. most powerful). I'd agree, though, that the Reeds ruled the Neck since the Starks conquered it.

"First among equals" does not imply that the title was not inherited, it simply shows less separation between the king and the other noble houses. Not to mention that it might not be the case at all. The TWoIaF account of the crannogman is obviously heavily biased against them.

Naming stuff:

Please give me one example in which a noble has to give up his father's name.

Please give me one example in which a king or crown prince married a commoner considered to be of the lowest birth, or a crannogman. (Don't discount prejudice against crannogman as a motive. Although the records may not wish to admit it, anti-crannogman prejudice might have been the major motivation.) As I stated in the OP (you might want to review it to avoid repetition) Duncan's case was a unique event, without precedent. It caused a revolt. Some legal mechanism had to be found that would satisfy all parties, and prevent future disputes between Duncan's possible sons and Jaehaerys. At the time this was settled, Duncan would be expected to eventually have sons. Their claim would have to be pre-empted in order to ensure they would not pose a challenge to Jaehaerys. How else could this be done, short of executions?

Howland and Robb:

Nothing suggests that Robb ever contacted or talked to Howland Reed about a crannogmen participation in the war prior to his plan in ASoS. Moat Cailin was held by other people.

Robb wasn't a POV character, so we don't get a list of the bannerman he called. In ASoS, he sends Glover and Mormont to Reed, while commenting about Reed's loyalty. There is absolutely nothing to imply that Howland was ever seen as disloyal, or even lacking, as a bannerman. Robb trusts Howland absolutely, without ever having met him.

Duncan's possible sons would have been raised at the court of Aegon V for two decades of their lives. Duncan and Jenny lived at court, and so would have their children. That's not in doubt. They would also have been raised in the expectancy to not inherit the Iron Throne so they, personally, would not necessarily have felt tricked out of their inheritance or felt mistreated.

Noble sons were commonly fostered out around age 8-9. Given the known prejudices against crannogman, Duncan's sons likely would have been sent back to the Neck at that age, fostered by other crannog houses. Life at King's Landing couldn't have been good for them - they could not hope to compete with the larger children at arms, and would have been denied their crannog heritage of living closer to the land. At the time the succession was settled, no one in their right mind would have relied on Duncan's possible sons gladly accepting their father's decision. One does not base your plans to prevent civil war on wishful thinking.

Duncan and Jenny remained at court until the end of their life - in fact, it is not unlikely that Egg gave Summerhall to them and their children following Duncan's abdication as Prince of Dragonstone and Jaehaerys subsequent installation as Prince of Dragonstone - Jaehaerys may have been Prince of Summerhall before he became Prince of Dragonstone, so this whole abdication thing could have been a title switch. Even if Daeron was Prince of Summerhall he died without issue in 253 which means that the castle would have ended up sort of by default in Duncan's hands as Jaehaerys was Prince of Dragonstone.

Duncan is never referred to as the Prince of Summerhall, even in the family tree or the White Book. The title of Prince of Summerhall probably passed to Aerys in 253. That would jibe nicely with Rhaella giving birth there.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Not to hijack the thread, but why was Duncan the Small passed over because of his love for Jenny? I haven't been able to find any information that explains this. Why would his marriage to Jenny disqualify his succession?

In TWoIaF, Yaldel states that Jenny claimed descent from "the long-vanished kings of the First Men", but that claim apparently wasn't accepted. She was considered to be a commoner. In addition, Duncan was already betrothed to the daughter of Lyonel Baratheon, Lord of Storm's End. (The same Lyonel Baratheon that fought for Dunk at the Trial of Seven at Ashford.) Duncan married Jenny, and refused to set her aside, choosing to abdicate instead.

[kissdbyfire]

I really like the theory, it's very interesting. Will definitely be keeping my eyes peeled for any clues!

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I really like the theory, it's very interesting. Will definitely be keeping my eyes peeled for any clues!

Thanks. I imagine it will be either confirmed or refuted in the first half of TWoW. GRRM has said we will see Howland Reed. In order to play a significant part, he should show up at Winterfell. If ADAtR is true, Howland and Stannis are second cousins. They should have met at the relief of Storm's End during Robert's Rebellion, so they might very well acknowledge the relationship when they meet again.

[Lost Melnibonean]

First-rate theory, although the textual support is as slender as a... wait for it... reed!

We have...

He sat naked under the elm while he dried, enjoying the warmth of the spring air on his skin as he watched a dragonfly move lazily among the reeds. Why would they name it a dragonfly? he wondered. It looks nothing like a dragon.

The Hedge Knight

This is near the opening of Dunk's tale. Toward the end, back at his little pond under the shooting star, we have this...

I know, mlord. Dunk looked about him. At the green grass and the reeds, the tall elm, the ripples dancing across the surface of the sunlit pool. Another dragonfly was moving across the water, or perhaps it was the same one. What shall it be, Dunk? he asked himself. Dragonflies or dragons? A few days ago he would have answered at once. It was all he had ever dreamed, but now that the prospect was at hand it frightened him. Just before Prince Baelor died, I swore to be his man.

Presumptuous of you, said Maekar. What did he say?

That the realm needed good men.

Thats true enough. What of it?

I will take your son as squire, Your Grace, but not at Summerhall. Not for a year or two. Hes seen sufficient of castles, I would judge. Ill have him only if I can take him on the road with me. He pointed to old Chestnut. Hell ride my steed, wear my old cloak, and hell keep my sword sharp and my mail scoured. Well sleep in inns and stables, and now and again in the halls of some landed knight or lesser lordling, and maybe under trees when we must.

The Hedge Knight

Dunk is choosing between the dragonfly and the dragon, a common life and a royal life.

Just to be sure I wasn't missing anyting I searchrd for dragonflies in the first three books and the other two Dunk and Egg stories. The only time I saw it, was when The George used it as imagery for the movement of a ship.

So, I have to assume that The George was not hinting that Jeyne was a crannogman. Still, I'll be watching for more hints. Did I miss any in Feast or Dance?

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I don't think Dunk's choice between "dragonflies or dragons" refers to commoner vs royal. It would be more like hedge knight vs high lord/royalty. On its own scale, a dragonfly is a fearsome predator. (This even holds in its nymph stage.) Yeah, there's plenty of higher level predators (mostly birds) that will prey on dragonflies, but there are also quite a few insects below a dragonfly in the food chain.

There is a very interesting contrast between The Hedge Knight and The Sworn Sword. In THK, Dunk looks up at all the lords, seeing them as so high above himself that he can barely interact with them. Jump to TSS, where Dunk is training peasants. They undoubtedly see Dunk the same way that Dunk saw the lords in THK. It's all a matter of perspective.

Someone else did a search on "dragonflies" and posted the results a couple pages back. (post #91). Three references to galleys (Cat and Rodrick in AGoT, the river galley chasing Jaime and Brienne in ACoK, and Braavosi galleys when Arya reaches Braavos in AFfC.) There are a few references to Duncan, of course. And there are dragonflies around Dany as she walks down the stream in her last chapter in ADwD. Those could be important. Especially when she hears Jorah's voice telling her how she screwed up.

[Lord Varys]

With the information we have I see the dragon vs. dragonfly symbolism as nothing but a hint that Ser Duncan the Tall eventually chose the dragon - that is court life and the Kingsguard (and possibly also a royal princess before that) - over the life of the hedge knight (that is the dragonfly). Prince Duncan the Small ended up doing the opposite, and possibly gained or chose the name 'the Prince of the Dragonflies' when he argued/defended his decision to marry Jenny in conversation with Aegon V and Dunk. Jenny may have been of ancient First Men nobility but effectively she was just some commoner of uncertain/unconfirmed birth.

As to Howland being Duncan's son:

Ibbison,

do you thing this makes sense age-wise? Surely Duncan and Jenny would have had children around the same time - or perhaps even earlier - than Jaehaerys and Shaera had - and thus Howland would about twenty years older than his good friend Ned, and be about forty years when he visited the Isle of Faces, and even older when his wife gave him Meera and Jojen.

If there is such a connection I'd say Howland has to be Duncan's grandson, born around the same time or shortly after Ned Stark. But if we go with that we don't need your elaborate (and ill-supported) theory about Jenny being a crannogwoman/Reed herself - we could just assume that a daughter of Jenny and Duncan ended up marrying into House Reed for some reason during the reign of Aegon V. That is, if we ignore the fact that Duncan and Jenny don't even got 'issue' written on the Targaryen family tree - which could be a big hint/confirmation that they, in fact, did not have any children.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

With the information we have I see the dragon vs. dragonfly symbolism as nothing but a hint that Ser Duncan the Tall eventually chose the dragon - that is court life and the Kingsguard (and possibly also a royal princess before that) - over the life of the hedge knight (that is the dragonfly). Prince Duncan the Small ended up doing the opposite, and possibly gained or chose the name 'the Prince of the Dragonflies' when he argued/defended his decision to marry Jenny in conversation with Aegon V and Dunk. Jenny may have been of ancient First Men nobility but effectively she was just some commoner of uncertain/unconfirmed birth.

I think we agree that dragon vs dragonfly = royal/high lord vs hedge knight. However, at the end of THK, Dunk clearly chooses dragonfly (he continues the life of a hedge knight) over dragon (serving Maekar at Summerhall). We will see if he changes in the future. As for Jenny, if her claim of descent is true, she isn't a commoner. The fact that many considered her to be one anyway is a clue to her identity..

As to Howland being Duncan's son:

Ibbison,

do you thing this makes sense age-wise?

The OP clearly says grandson. As does the thread title.

If there is such a connection I'd say Howland has to be Duncan's grandson, born around the same time or shortly after Ned Stark. But if we go with that we don't need your elaborate (and ill-supported) theory about Jenny being a crannogwoman/Reed herself - we could just assume that a daughter of Jenny and Duncan ended up marrying into House Reed for some reason during the reign of Aegon V. That is, if we ignore the fact that Duncan and Jenny don't even got 'issue' written on the Targaryen family tree - which could be a big hint/confirmation that they, in fact, did not have any children.

Jenny is one of the most mysterious figures in the story. Literally. She is explicitly described as "mysterious" both in the Aegon V entry (p 108) and Stormlands entry (p 228) of TWoIaF. She claims descent from the the kings of the first men, and is "perhaps even a witch." The only people who call her a commoner are ignorant villagers and maesters prone to whitewashing events. In fact, the term commoner is carefully avoided in the main books. Jenny being from House Reed fits, and explains many other things. See the OP. You are free to call it ill-supported if you wish, but I don't agree. Nor do many others.

Duncan-daughter-Howland is possible, but Duncan-son-Howland can potentially explain events at the ToJ.

The fact that there is no "issue" for Duncan and Jenny in the family tree has no significance whatsoever, for obvious reasons that have already been covered. I guess I'll do it again. There is no "issue" marked for Daella or Rhae, and yet we know they both married and had children. (Aemon told Sam during the sea voyage.) The status of Duncan's, Daella's, Rhae's, and Maegor's lines were clearly left ambiguous to prevent spoilers.

A Dragonfly Among the Reeds is not a theory. It is a hypothesis. It is not confirmed - it must be tested. It passed a test when TWoIaF came out, since it wasn't refuted (ADAtR is entirely consistent with TWoIaF), but the results were by no means conclusive. We await TWoW for the final test.

[Lord Varys]

Sorry, didn't check the thread title ;-).

Well, I'm less inclined to consider the 'Jenny was a confirmed Reed hypothesis' because, you know, there would be little reason to keep that a secret, would there? Knowing that would still doesn't tell us if they had any children, nor wouldn't we have to buy your whole 'Duncan's children took for some reason the name of their mother'. If Jenny was a Reed there could also have been a male branch of House Reed who would have continued ruling the crannogmen and continued the line to Howland, Jojen, and Meera. Your take would be that a male branch of House Targaryen and female branch of House Reed suddenly decided to call itself 'Reed' and take over House Reed. I'd be very surprised if that happened.

Duncan's daughter marrying Howland's father would be a different matter altogether. No weird additional assumptions would have to be made, it could have been Princess X Targaryen married Lord Y Reed.

I'd agree that Jenny is a mysterious character, but she wouldn't be less mysterious if she had a Mudd, Children of the Forest, or commoner background. Witches don't have to have noble blood, I assume.

That there is no issue on the family tree could be a way to prevent spoilers - however, since we know that Duncan and Jenny were, in fact, married it wouldn't have been a spoiler to tell us that they had children if we didn't know who those children were and what happened to them. While the names of the spouses of Rhae and Daella Targaryen may actually contain spoilers. And whether Prince Maegor actually lived long enough to marry/married eventually is not clear yet. It is not impossible that he died without ever fathering any legitimate or illegitimate issue, just as Prince Daeron's line died with him, too.

Ran has said that the trees are partially incomplete due to the fact that George didn't want to invent more names for spouses (in case of the daughters of Cregan Stark, for instance) as well as due to the fact that especially the Targaryen tree couldn't fit much more on it.

Oh, and I'd not bet that we'll be seeing Howland Reed in TWoW. He may only show up in ADoS.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I don't think Dunk's choice between "dragonflies or dragons" refers to commoner vs royal. It would be more like hedge knight vs high lord/royalty. On its own scale, a dragonfly is a fearsome predator. (This even holds in its nymph stage.) Yeah, there's plenty of higher level predators (mostly birds) that will prey on dragonflies, but there are also quite a few insects below a dragonfly in the food chain.

There is a very interesting contrast between The Hedge Knight and The Sworn Sword. In THK, Dunk looks up at all the lords, seeing them as so high above himself that he can barely interact with them. Jump to TSS, where Dunk is training peasants. They undoubtedly see Dunk the same way that Dunk saw the lords in THK. It's all a matter of perspective.

Someone else did a search on "dragonflies" and posted the results a couple pages back. (post #91). Three references to galleys (Cat and Rodrick in AGoT, the river galley chasing Jaime and Brienne in ACoK, and Braavosi galleys when Arya reaches Braavos in AFfC.) There are a few references to Duncan, of course. And there are dragonflies around Dany as she walks down the stream in her last chapter in ADwD. Those could be important. Especially when she hears Jorah's voice telling her how she screwed up.

Thanks for the additional references. I gotta get these books in digital format...

[grufolo]

Interesting read but the major weakness is:

"3 - No mention is made of Duncan and Jenny having any children, either in the text or the Targ family tree."

I think tha if ever a trueborn or not son of Duncan ever was conceinved, it would have been reported.