A Dragonfly Among the Reeds - Is Howland Reed the Grandson of Duncan the Small?

[ThirdUnsulliedFromTheLeft]

Great post. Talking of mud and fire, Ser Barristan makes reference to them both in a ADWD when referring to Danys choice of suitor. Daario as Fire and Quentyn as Mud, and how she makes a young girls choice in fire over mud, but mud can be made into a poultice to sooth you and in mud you can grow crops.

I'm not sure of its relevance to your post but considering Duncan originally named Barristan the 'Bold' he would be fully aware of Duncan and Jenny's story and 'fire' and 'mud' could frame some of his thinking because of it.

[ThirdUnsulliedFromTheLeft]

I keep thinking about Bran gobbling up Jojen Paste. That's Kings blood for you.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Putting that aside, now that WoW is out, do you find anything in it that helps support (or explode) your theory? I imagine you read with some of your theories in mind just as I did!

I've been away from the forum for a couple weeks, so sorry about the late reply. Since it references tWoIaF, I'll spoiler tag it.

I see mild evidence that further supports DAtR in tWoIaF. Here are the points -

1 - DAtR correctly predicted that Jenny acquired her surname because Duncan met her at Oldstones, not because she was born in a nearby village. She was in fact living among the ruins, and was not a native of the area. The locals distrusted her. Her origin remains mysterious, but she claimed descent "from the long-vanished kings of the First Men." This is compatible with descent from House Mudd or House Reed (or both, if House Reed is itself descended from House Mudd). The smallfolk's description of Jenny as "perhaps even a witch" might be considered consistent with a crannogman who knew "the magics of the crannogs" and other similar references made by Meera.

2 - The section in the regional history of the North concerning the crannogmen confirms the existence of biases against them and any claims of lordship they might hold.(pg 140 "Were the Marsh Kings really even truly kings, as we understand it?") Yandel is showing a southerner's prejudice against the crannogmen, which could lead to dismissal of any inheritance claims for Duncan and Jenny's descendants.

3 - No mention is made of Duncan and Jenny having any children, either in the text or the Targ family tree. This cuts both ways. No children are confirmed. Then again, if children existed, their deaths aren't confirmed. It's a big blank. No children are listed in the text or tree for Daella or Rhae, although we know they existed. No fate is listed for Aerion's son Maegor. Any children of Duncan would be possible competitors for Robert, so leaving them out might be a case of Yandel shaping his account to his target audience. The blank also hides possible spoilers for later books.

4 - Here's a possible clue from the Aerys II section, pg 113. " ..., for the tragedies of Aegon the Unlikely's reign had trimmed the noble tree of House Targaryen to just a pair of lonely branches." (My emphasis) Why would Yandel use the word noble here? The descendants of lords are typically sorted into two groups - trueborn and natural/bastard. We've never seen a family separated into noble vs non-noble branches. Is Yandel subtly revealing that a non-noble branch of House Targaryen now exists? If so, it could only be Duncan's descendants, denied the status of nobility due to his "unacceptable" marriage. This ties in with point #2 above.

Jenny is, of course, never referred to as a crannogman in tWoIaF, but again, that could be Yandel conveniently avoiding reminding Robert about other claiments, coupled with GRRM&Co avoiding spoilers.

[Frey family reunion]

I've been away from the forum for a couple weeks, so sorry about the late reply. Since it references tWoIaF, I'll spoiler tag it.

I see mild evidence that further supports DAtR in tWoIaF. Here are the points -

1 - DAtR correctly predicted that Jenny acquired her surname because Duncan met her at Oldstones, not because she was born in a nearby village. She was in fact living among the ruins, and was not a native of the area. The locals distrusted her. Her origin remains mysterious, but she claimed descent "from the long-vanished kings of the First Men." This is compatible with descent from House Mudd or House Reed (or both, if House Reed is itself descended from House Mudd). The smallfolk's description of Jenny as "perhaps even a witch" might be considered consistent with a crannogman who knew "the magics of the crannogs" and other similar references made by Meera.

2 - The section in the regional history of the North concerning the crannogmen confirms the existence of biases against them and any claims of lordship they might hold.(pg 140 "Were the Marsh Kings really even truly kings, as we understand it?") Yandel is showing a southerner's prejudice against the crannogmen, which could lead to dismissal of any inheritance claims for Duncan and Jenny's descendants.

3 - No mention is made of Duncan and Jenny having any children, either in the text or the Targ family tree. This cuts both ways. No children are confirmed. Then again, if children existed, their deaths aren't confirmed. It's a big blank. No children are listed in the text or tree for Daella or Rhae, although we know they existed. No fate is listed for Aerion's son Maegor. Any children of Duncan would be possible competitors for Robert, so leaving them out might be a case of Yandel shaping his account to his target audience. The blank also hides possible spoilers for later books.

4 - Here's a possible clue from the Aerys II section, pg 113. " ..., for the tragedies of Aegon the Unlikely's reign had trimmed the noble tree of House Targaryen to just a pair of lonely branches." (My emphasis) Why would Yandel use the word noble here? The descendants of lords are typically sorted into two groups - trueborn and natural/bastard. We've never seen a family separated into noble vs non-noble branches. Is Yandel subtly revealing that a non-noble branch of House Targaryen now exists? If so, it could only be Duncan's descendants, denied the status of nobility due to his "unacceptable" marriage. This ties in with point #2 above.

Jenny is, of course, never referred to as a crannogman in tWoIaF, but again, that could be Yandel conveniently avoiding reminding Robert about other claiments, coupled with GRRM&Co avoiding spoilers.

I've had some crazy notions lately that dovetail into this thread. If your theory is true, what if, Lyanna's initial disappearance wasn't because she was abducted by (or ran off with Rhaegar) but what if she had run off with Howland and the two went to the Isle if Faces and got married in front of the Weirwoods, and when she returned to the shore she was then abducted by Rhaegar and his friends (since she was only ten leagues from Harrenhal, this seems like a possibility).

Now fast forward to the tower of joy where Gerold Hightower is one of the Kingsguard who is protecting Jon (and possibly his twin sister, Meera). Gerold would have been in the Kingsguard at the time of Summerhall and may have possibly been a witness to the events therein. If Aegon V was trying to hatch dragons, I find it notable that his first born son Duncan the small was present and both he and his father were the only Targaryens who died at Summerhall. What if Aegon V, restored Duncan the Small as his heir, so when Aegon V and then Duncan the Small were sacrificed they both died as kings (the requirement to "wake the dragon").

If Jenny was pregnant with Howland at the time, then that would make him and his line the rightful heir to the throne. If Rhaegar somehow figured this out, he could have told Gerold which explains why Hightower abandoned Aerys and stayed guard at the tower, technically Jon would be the rightful heir over Aerys, Rhaegar, baby Aegon, and Viserys. Thus Hightower could reconcile his oath with the Kingsguard by staying at the tower of joy. This would also explain why Ned would have to keep the events at the tower quiet, he's protecting Howland, Jon (and Meera) from Robert Baratheon if he learned that there was another Targaryen line that could make a claim to the throne. (and protect Howland from Robert's wrath over stealing Lyanna from him).

[Cladinator]

That would be interesting. You've put together a fairly good argument.

[Frey family reunion]

That would be interesting. You've put together a fairly good argument.

And it gets even better, if what I stated is true, this would make Meera, Jon's twin sister, separated at birth. Now in the books, the closest these two characters ever get together is in two chapters in ASOS, when Meera, Bran, Jojen, and Hodor are hiding in the Queen's crown tower in the middle of the lake. Jon, Ygritte and the wildlings come to the village outside the lake and tower in the midst of a raging thunderstorm. Jon and Ygritte stand on the shore of the lake and look out at the tower as the lightning strikes get closer and closer. Here is how these two chapters begin:

The tower stood upon an island, its twin reflected on the still blue waters.

Thus the tower's "twin" is it's reflection across the waters of the lake.

Then we have Meera inside the tower with her twin across the lake on the shore.

[Mithras]

If Meera and Jon are twins, then they can only be the children of Howland and Lyanna because one has obviously crannogman appearance and the other is obviously Stark. This does not work with the timeline. Besides, there would be no reason for Ned to take Jon with him instead of leaving him to Howland's care or hide the identity of his mother.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Howland Reed is a little too young to have been born at Summerhall. GRRM gives his age:

6) How old is Howland Reed?

He'd be in his thirties.

Had Rhaegar not died he would have been 40/41. Howland actually seems to be around the same age as the Starks while Rhaegar is almost a decade older than them at the Tourney off Harenhal.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I've had some crazy notions lately that dovetail into this thread. If your theory is true, what if, Lyanna's initial disappearance

....................

to the throne. (and protect Howland from Robert's wrath over stealing Lyanna from him).

R+L=J is so well supported I can't buy anything else. As Mithras notes below, if your idea was true both children would have stayed with Howland at Greywater Watch. As for Hightower, my understanding is that Aerys sent him to find Rhaegar, and Rhaegar ordered him to remain behind when he returned to KL. Duncan the Small was no doubt at Summerhall to claim a dragon if one hatched. Timeline constraints point heavily to Howland being Duncan's grandson, if aDAtR is true.

Nothing wrong with batting around a few possibilities, though. :)

Thus the tower's "twin" is it's reflection across the waters of the lake.

Then we have Meera inside the tower with her twin across the lake on the shore.

Great catch, but I have a different interpretation.

I've always seen the encounter at Queenscrown as foreshadowing a Jon+Meera match. (I'm a major Jon and Meera shipper.) It's a classic case of the Maiden in the Tower, with the prince outside. And of all the maidens in all the towers in the story, Meera is the only one in a tower named after a queen, with a crown on the top. I would explain the "twin" reference as comparing Queenscrown to the ToJ. Rhaegar and Lyanna went to the ToJ; Jon and Meera missed each other at Queenscrown.

If Meera and Jon are twins, then they can only be the children of Howland and Lyanna because one has obviously crannogman appearance and the other is obviously Stark. This does not work with the timeline. Besides, there would be no reason for Ned to take Jon with him instead of leaving him to Howland's care or hide the identity of his mother.

As I stated above, I agree with you on Jon's disposition.

[Frey family reunion]

If Meera and Jon are twins, then they can only be the children of Howland and Lyanna because one has obviously crannogman appearance and the other is obviously Stark. This does not work with the timeline. Besides, there would be no reason for Ned to take Jon with him instead of leaving him to Howland's care or hide the identity of his mother.

I think we are assuming that Ned and company came upon the tower of joy right when the Lyanna is giving birth, I'm not sure that we can assume that. Rhaegar was already referring to it as a tower of joy, which makes me wonder that he was either told that Lyanna had given birth or he was actually present for the birth of the children before Hightower called him away. If you recall Elia was bedridden for six months after the birth of her first child and almost died after the birth of her second. This makes me think that the reason they were stuck in the tower, was they were waiting for Lyanna to be strong enough to travel, but the opportunity never came before Howland led Ned and his buddies to the tower. The bed of blood reference can refer to a post-partum hemorrhaging, that could happen up to six weeks after childbirth.

As for the start of our timeline, it very well could have started at the time of Lyanna's initial disappearance as opposed to when Rhaegar first captures her. If Lyanna ran off with Howland, Brandon could have easily assumed Rhaegar was to blame based on Rhaegar's performance at Harrenhal.

As for your second objection, we already have two instances of children being separated for their own protection, Mance's son and Gilly's, and Brandon and Rickon. In this instance, if Rhaegar knew that Lyanna had given birth to twins, one boy and one girl, who else would have been aware of this? So if Howland (known to be neck deep in Lyanna's affairs, pun intended) is known to suddenly have a twin boy and twin girl, then it could have alerted whoever else may have been in on Rhaegar's plans. So they separate the children bring one to Greywater and one to Winterfell, if somehow, interested parties track Howland and Meera down in Greywater watch, at least Jon is protected in Winterfell.

And of course we also don't know exactly what Rhaegar's end game was with all of this. If he was planning on a second Summerhall, perhaps the children need to be kept apart to keep certain prophecies from coming to fruition. Which means if Jon and Meera ever do come together, something interesting may happen.

[Frey family reunion]

Howland Reed is a little too young to have been born at Summerhall. GRRM gives his age:

Had Rhaegar not died he would have been 40/41. Howland actually seems to be around the same age as the Starks while Rhaegar is almost a decade older than them at the Tourney off Harenhal.

No, the age works out just fine. The wiki calculates Howland's birth from 260 to 265 based on Martin's comments. Summerhall occurs in 259, if Jenny was pregnant with Howland during Summerhall she could have easily given birth to him in 260.

[Frey family reunion]

R+L=J is so well supported I can't buy anything else. As Mithras notes below, if your idea was true both children would have stayed with Howland at Greywater Watch. As for Hightower, my understanding is that Aerys sent him to find Rhaegar, and Rhaegar ordered him to remain behind when he returned to KL. Duncan the Small was no doubt at Summerhall to claim a dragon if one hatched. Timeline constraints point heavily to Howland being Duncan's grandson, if aDAtR is true.

Nothing wrong with batting around a few possibilities, though. :)

Great catch, but I have a different interpretation.

I've always seen the encounter at Queenscrown as foreshadowing a Jon+Meera match. (I'm a major Jon and Meera shipper.) It's a classic case of the Maiden in the Tower, with the prince outside. And of all the maidens in all the towers in the story, Meera is the only one in a tower named after a queen, with a crown on the top. I would explain the "twin" reference as comparing Queenscrown to the ToJ. Rhaegar and Lyanna went to the ToJ; Jon and Meera missed each other at Queenscrown.

As I stated above, I agree with you on Jon's disposition.

If Martin really doesn't intend on suprising the readers regarding Jon's parentage, than sure Rhaegar is the safest bet. Martin points enough neon signs Rhaegar's way, so if the reader comes up with Jon being Lyanna's son, then Rhaegar becomes a very obvious choice as father.

If Martin is still holding a few tricks up his sleeve, then I think Howland is the most intriguing possibility. Because if your theory is correct about Howland being descended from Duncan the small, and if Aegon V did reinstate Duncan the Small into the succession, then Jon has a claim on the throne that trumps everyone.

And I do think we have some decent foreshadowing for this as a possibility:

1. As Rhaegar gets closer to spiriting Lyanna away, he refers to Aegon's song as being the song of ice and fire. The only other time this term is used (in the actual story), is when the Reeds swear their oath to Brandon, ending it by swearing by ice and fire. Allegedly this was the oath the Reeds first gave the Starks when they submitted to them.

2. Selmy muses about Dany having to choose between fire (Daario) and mud (Quentyn, aka Frog). What if Lyanna had a similar choice between Rhaegar (fire) and Howland (mud, a frog eater)? Dany chose fire, are we sure that Lyanna would choose the same?

3. Lyanna has been compared throughout with Arya. So knowing what we know of Arya, would she have chosen Howland or Rhaegar? We have a basis of a relationship for Lyanna and Howland. Lyanna came to Howland's rescue, she tended his wounds, she gave him a place at her family's table, and she even perhaps fought for his honor as a mystery knight. The only relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna? He dropped a circle of flowers in her lap. Martin gives us the blueprint for a relationship between Lyanna and Howland, but he subtly reversed our traditional gender expectations between the two so we don't make the connection that it could be a romantic relationship. If Ser Stark came to Princess Reed's rescue, tended her wounds, brought her into his family, and fought for her honor, wouldn't we come to the conclusion that this might be a romantic relationship more easily?

4. If Lyanna did wed, the most symbolic place for such a wedding would be the Isle of Faces. In front of the same Weirwoods that witnessed the pact between the First Men and the Children. Howland is the only character currently alive in the books that is associated with the Isle, he would be the only one that could take Lyanna to it. It also gives a reason for Lyanna being only ten leagues from Harrenhal, at least three months after the tourney was over, and perhaps being by herself. She was returning to her family from the Island.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

And I do think we have some decent foreshadowing for this as a possibility:

1. As Rhaegar gets closer to spiriting Lyanna away, he refers to Aegon's song as being the song of ice and fire. The only other time this term is used (in the actual story), is when the Reeds swear their oath to Brandon, ending it by swearing by ice and fire. Allegedly this was the oath the Reeds first gave the Starks when they submitted to them.

The crannogmen were close to the CotF, and preserved much of their ancient knowledge. Rhaegar has been studying ancient legends and prophesies. I suspect that's where this link came from.

Trivia Point - The Reed's Oath bears a striking resemblance to the Oath to Frigg from the story of the Death of Baldur.

So Frigg exacted an oath from fire, water, iron and all kinds of metal, stones, earth, trees, sicknesses, beasts, birds and creeping things, that they should not hurt Balder.

Snorri Sturluson. The Younger Edda / Also called Snorre's Edda, or The Prose Edda (Kindle Locations 1107-1108).

2. Selmy muses about Dany having to choose between fire (Daario) and mud (Quentyn, aka Frog). What if Lyanna had a similar choice between Rhaegar (fire) and Howland (mud, a frog eater)? Dany chose fire, are we sure that Lyanna would choose the same?

But there aren't really any strong parallels between Dany and Lyanna. The parallels are between Dany and Jon. Dany chose Fire (Daario) over Mud (Quentyn). Jon already had a taste of Fire (Ygritte). Next he will choose Mud (Meera).

3. Lyanna has been compared throughout with Arya. So knowing what we know of Arya, would she have chosen Howland or Rhaegar? We have a basis of a relationship for Lyanna and Howland.

...

The relationship between Howland and Lyanna is that between bannerman and lord. (Lyanna is portrayed as being so strong-willed that she, not Brandon, is very much the leader among the Starks at the tourney at Harrenhal.) Rhaegar declares Lyanna the QoLaB, a romantic relationship.

4. If Lyanna did wed, the most symbolic place for such a wedding would be the Isle of Faces.

The idea of Lyanna marrying at the Isle of Faces is intriguing, but there's no data. Just guesses. Nor do we know of her movements. Brandon's wedding was impending at Riverrun - Lyanna might well have been staying at Harrenhal after the tourney as a guest so she wouldn't have to travel to Winterfell and back.

[Frey family reunion]

The crannogmen were close to the CotF, and preserved much of their ancient knowledge. Rhaegar has been studying ancient legends and prophesies. I suspect that's where this link came from.

Trivia Point - The Reed's Oath bears a striking resemblance to the Oath to Frigg from the story of the Death of Baldur.

But there aren't really any strong parallels between Dany and Lyanna. The parallels are between Dany and Jon. Dany chose Fire (Daario) over Mud (Quentyn). Jon already had a taste of Fire (Ygritte). Next he will choose Mud (Meera).

The relationship between Howland and Lyanna is that between bannerman and lord. (Lyanna is portrayed as being so strong-willed that she, not Brandon, is very much the leader among the Starks at the tourney at Harrenhal.) Rhaegar declares Lyanna the QoLaB, a romantic relationship.

The idea of Lyanna marrying at the Isle of Faces is intriguing, but there's no data. Just guesses. Nor do we know of her movements. Brandon's wedding was impending at Riverrun - Lyanna might well have been staying at Harrenhal after the tourney as a guest so she wouldn't have to travel to Winterfell and back.

It's interesting that you see a possible relationship between Meera and Jon, and it seems that may be one of the reasons that you have a hard time considering my theory that Jon and Meera are twins. I say it's interesting because I don't think Martin is above "shipping" (as the kids say) twins, obviously see Cersei and Jaime. But the most interesting part of this possibility, is that if Meera and Jon are twins, unbeknownst to them, and they did develop a relationship, then it would mirror a major plot point in Wagner's opera, the Ring Cycle (which I think Martin does occasionally reference, and which is probably a major inspiration of LOTR as well). In Wagner's second part of his opera, Siegmund and Sieglinde, are twins who are separated at birth, they meet (during a storm btw) by happenstance, develop a relationship and give birth to Siegfried, who in turn slays the dragon Fafnir (Fafnir, originally a dwarf turned into a dragon because of his greed).

The Ring Cycle is also believed to be an inspiration behind Star Wars as well. And of course in Star Wars we also have two twins (Luke and Leia) separated at birth who happen to reunite (and almost develop a relationship). I mention Star Wars because Alfie Allen (the actor who plays Theon in the HBO show) let slip that Jon's parentage "involves a bit of a Luke Skywalker situation". All of the Rhaegar proponents were quick to try and link Rhaegar to Vader from this quote, but I wonder if instead Alfie is referring to Luke having a secret twin, he's unaware of. Also note how similar the actors look who play Jon and Meera.

As for Rhaegar crowning Lyanna as the QOLAB, with a crown of blue roses, I suppose it does in a traditional fantasy setting seem like the basis of a romantic relationship, but is it really? Lyanna, a fourteen year old girl, is given a crown of blue roses seemingly out of nowhere by a married man who is a father, with no real actual relationship existing between the two of them prior to this crowning. She does have a real relationship with Howland but because she is seen as his protector we assume it is not a romantic relationship It appears that your assumption is that their relationship is only one between a Lord and their bannerman, as if a romantic relationship could not exist under this scenario.

It brings to mind a Chinese folklore regarding a blue rose, I've quoted it before, but I'll just go ahead and summarize it here. The princess of a kingdom is told by her father that she needed to marry. Her best friend is the son of her father's gardener. She goes to him for advice. The gardener's son suggests that she makes her suitors perform a difficult task that will show how devoted they are to her. She decides that the suitors need to procure her a blue rose. The first suitor is a rich merchant who pays a florist to create a blue rose for him. The florist dips a white rose into blue dye, so the rose sucks up the blue color. The wealthy merchant gives the princess the "blue rose". The rose drops dye into her hand and she notices that the stem and the leaves are also blue. She turns the suitor away because he tried to deceive her by dying a white rose blue. Next a might warrior threatens another lord and tells him he has to procure a blue rose or he'll kill him. The wealthy lord has a jeweler make a blue rose out of sapphires. When the warrior gives this "blue rose" to the princess, she turns him down as well saying that his rose is as cold and hard as him, and she wants something soft and delicate. Then one of her father's advisors goes to a wizard who creates an illusionary blue rose out of smoke and places it in a glass box. When the princess receives this rose she reaches into the glass box where her hand passes through the rose because it's not real. She declines him as well. She returns to the gardener's son and laments how unfaithful the suitors are. The gardener's son tells her to meet him on the next day in a blue room in the castle. When the day comes the gardener's son brings a plain white rose and presents it to the princess. When the rest of the king's court scoffs at the gardener's son and his white rose, the princess stops them and says that she will marry the gardener's son. She says that he is the only one who is honest with her and has always provided friendship and good counsel. She says that the gardener's son's rose is a blue one because she says it is a blue rose.

Rhaegar wins the tourney and gives Lyanna a crown of blue roses, but was this truly a romantic gesture? Or is Rhaegar trying to bring about his song of ice and fire? He sure doesn't seem to have any issues with Elia and still declares their son to be the Prince that was promised. So where does Lyanna fit in here? Is she the type content to be a second wife for Rhaegar? Or would instead she find that she has more in common with someone like Howland, who shares her beliefs, and who isn't already promised to another?

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I've got that Chinese Blue Rose story saved somewhere! I don't remember where I found it - perhaps you linked to it at one time.

The real reason I don't see Jon and Meera as twins are -

1) R+L=J seems incredibly solid to me. Yet Meera has to be Howland's daughter.

2) Rhaegar the Abductor/Rapist doesn't work for me. It's obviously a story Robert has sold himself on to make up for the fact that Lyanna rejected him.

3) I don't find any stories of Howland Reed, the shy crannogman, competing for and winning the hearts of prominent Westerosi ladies realistic. I detest Howland and Ashara pairings - they are quite childish.

R+L=J makes everything else in the story work, yet over half the people who read the books fail to see it. (I myself once explained it to a bartender who had completely missed it.) There is no need to assume it is too obvious, and some other twist must lay behind it.

If ADAtR is true, Jon and Meera are third cousins. That's close enough to satisfy Targ intermarriage requirements for me.

ETA - I wouldn't put any weight on how the actors look. Jon and Meera in the books have completely different appearances.

[markg171]

If Meera and Jon are twins, then they can only be the children of Howland and Lyanna because one has obviously crannogman appearance and the other is obviously Stark. This does not work with the timeline. Besides, there would be no reason for Ned to take Jon with him instead of leaving him to Howland's care or hide the identity of his mother.

Well if Jon is Rhaegar's son, why is he hidden with the Starks? The standard answer is because he looks like a Stark. Similarly, if Howland had a kid who obviously looked like a Stark like Jon does, well the only possible Stark who could have given him those looks is Lyanna. So the easiest thing to do is claim he's a Stark. Which is exactly what happens. All your doing is changing the father, and hiding him for the exact same reasons: because he looks too much like the mother

Howland Reed is a little too young to have been born at Summerhall. GRRM gives his age:

Had Rhaegar not died he would have been 40/41. Howland actually seems to be around the same age as the Starks while Rhaegar is almost a decade older than them at the Tourney off Harenhal.

No he's not? Rhaegar was 22 at Harrenhal, Brandon 19, Ned 18, Lyanna 15, Benjen 14. Rhaegar's therefore 2-8 years older than the Starks.

Now Howland is at the very least 16 at Harrenhal seeing as he left for the Isle of the Faces when he was a man grown which is 16

“The lad knew the magics of the crannogs,” she continued, “but he wanted more. Our people seldom travel far from home, you know. We’re a small folk, and our ways seem queer to some, so the big people do not always treat us kindly. But this lad was bolder than most, and one day when he had grown to manhood he decided he would leave the crannogs and visit the Isle of Faces.”

Then he spent all winter there

“They are,” she agreed, but said no more about them. “All that winter the crannogman stayed on the isle, but when the spring broke he heard the wide world calling and knew the time had come to leave. His skin boat was just where he’d left it, so he said his farewells and paddled off toward shore. He rowed and rowed, and finally saw the distant towers of a castle rising beside the lake. The towers reached ever higher as he neared shore, until he realized that this must be the greatest castle in all the world.”

The winter lasted 2 years so Howland is probably the same age as Ned, 18. But he's definitely older than Benjen and Lyanna, which would makes him at most 6 years younger than Rhaegar, but far more likely closer to 4.

Howland is of comparable age to Rhaegar.

The relationship between Howland and Lyanna is that between bannerman and lord. (Lyanna is portrayed as being so strong-willed that she, not Brandon, is very much the leader among the Starks at the tourney at Harrenhal.) Rhaegar declares Lyanna the QoLaB, a romantic relationship.

Except both Howland says that Brandon was the leader at Harrenhal

“Two,” said Meera. “The she-wolf laid into the squires with a tourney sword, scattering them all. The crannogman was bruised and bloodied, so she took him back to her lair to clean his cuts and bind them up with linen. There he met her pack brothers: the wild wolf who led them, the quiet wolf beside him, and the pup who was youngest of the four.

The idea of Lyanna marrying at the Isle of Faces is intriguing, but there's no data. Just guesses. Nor do we know of her movements. Brandon's wedding was impending at Riverrun - Lyanna might well have been staying at Harrenhal after the tourney as a guest so she wouldn't have to travel to Winterfell and back.

I actually find it more likely that Lyanna was with Ned and Robert in the Vale after Harrenhal and was making her way to Riverrun from there. She was abducted 10 miles from Harrenhal. If you're coming from the Vale and on your way to Riverrun, that's exactly where you'd be.

[markg171]

Also, if Jon and Meera are twins or related, isn't it interesting that the show chose to cast Meera as someone who looks different from the books, but very much like Jon?

http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20130126022129/hieloyfuego/images/2/27/Meera_Reed_HBO.jpg

http://images6.fanpop.com/image/photos/34800000/Jon-Snow-jon-snow-34863382-3000-2259.jpg

The show runners know the endgame. If part of the endgame is that Jon and Meera are related, it needs to be believable and show needs actors who can show this familial relationship. And Jon and Meera look identical. No show watcher is going to get confused if you put Meera and Jon side by side and said "These two people are related"

[LmL]

How could Jenny of Oldstones be from Oldstones?

Oldstones castle (as it is known now) was the seat of House Mudd. It sits on a hill that overlooks the Blue Fork, and has been an unoccupied ruin for 3000+ years. We see it twice in aSoS, once with Catelyn and Robb, once with Merrett Frey. We see no sign of recent occupation at the site or in the immediate vicinity. We hear no mention of nearby villages; the area seems to be deserted. (The outlaws that Merrett met would hardly demand a rendezvous in a populated area.) After the fall of the Mudds, the smallfolk eventually left, even carting the castle stones to other locales long ago to be reused for more urgent purposes. How could Jenny be from Oldstones? The most likely answer is that she wasn't, and that she received her surname for some other reason. Tristifer IV Mudd, a king of First Men famous for fighting against Andal invaders, is buried there. After his death, the Andals conquered his kingdom. Any surviving First Men who didn't submit likely retreated north to the Neck, where we now find crannogmen from houses such as Reed, Fenn, Boggs, Peat, and others. They might very well claim descent from House Mudd, and trace their roots back to Oldstones. The fact that crannogmen are often called “mudmen” may not be a coincidence.

I’m coming late to this thread, bt enjoyed the read and the comments as well. I’m not sure how I feel about some of the Meera Reed stuff, although I prefer the idea of them getting together over them being twins. The fire and mud parallel with Dany, Daario and Quentin is a great catch. The above quote is the part of the OP i liked the best. Linking Jenny and the Crannogs to House Mudd makes a lot of damn sense. It explains why George names them house Mudd, kind of a dumb name (meaning no offense to his majesty Tristifer the Fourth or whatever)

[Sword of the Morgan]

This is really interesting. Probably unlikely, but can't be disproved at this point.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

The above quote is the part of the OP i liked the best.

Thanks. The bit about Jenny of Oldstones not actually being from Oldstones was confirmed by TWoIaF. (The OP was posted more than a year before TWoIaF came out.) All the new info was consistent with the hypothesis, although TWoIaF went to great lengths to avoid spoilers on this.