A Dragonfly Among the Reeds - Is Howland Reed the Grandson of Duncan the Small?

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Here goes -

Well, I'm less inclined to consider the 'Jenny was a confirmed Reed hypothesis' because, you know, there would be little reason to keep that a secret, would there?

No one is keeping secrets, with the possible exceptions of Yandel and GRRM. (The OP was posted more than a year before TWoIaF came out, so Yandel is covered at the end.) Robb mentions that a song exists. Barristan recalls that Duncan married for love. He tells Daenerys about Jenny's woods witch friend. The only detail we hear concerning Jenny in the books is that she wore flowers in her hair. We only hear snippets of the tale. The famous song probably leaves Jenny's identity a mystery, so that the girls listening to it can imagine themselves in her place.

Yandel, on the other hand, shows a clear (though likely institutional rather than personal) prejudice against crannogmen. They are the "least" of the people of the North whose kings weren't "even truly kings as we understand it." Yandel also has a vested interest in avoiding presenting inconvenient facts to Robert Baratheon, like the existence of possible competitors. (Even though Robert surely knew, he wouldn't enjoy being reminded of it.) Any descendants of Duncan and Jenny would also have a strong incentive to avoid unnecessary publicity, to prove their loyalty to Aerys or to avoid attention from Robert.

The proposition that Duncan gave up his right to the name Targaryen is easier to understand if we take a look at just what "abdication" means in Westeros. The whole point of noble inheritance is that the name is the claim. Abdication doesn't really exist. (For a very good reason, in fact. It would usually lead to conflict in the next generation.) Ask Randyll Tarly. He desperately wanted to pass over his elder son, but he couldn't just draw up a document and have Sam sign it. Sam didn't care about becoming Lord Tarly, but there was no way for him to just give up his claim. There are three traditional ways to abandon a claim for Westerosi nobles - the Faith, the Chain, or the Wall. (Getting murdered might also be considered a traditional, yet unconventional method.) All preclude siring heirs. Aegon obviously wanted a solution that allowed Duncan to remain in KL, and Duncan insisted on keeping Jenny. It was an entirely unprecedented situation, and the solution was also unprecedented. We won't know with certainty what happened until the relevant Dunk and Egg story comes out.

If Jenny was a Reed there could also have been a male branch of House Reed who would have continued ruling the crannogmen and continued the line to Howland, Jojen, and Meera. Your take would be that a male branch of House Targaryen and female branch of House Reed suddenly decided to call itself 'Reed' and take over House Reed. I'd be very surprised if that happened.

Duncan's daughter marrying Howland's father would be a different matter altogether. No weird additional assumptions would have to be made, it could have been Princess X Targaryen married Lord Y Reed.

These are valid points, of course, but if they are true Howland's actions before and after the war are harder to explain. (See OP.) (As I stated previously, I consider the Duncan-son-Howland case to have stronger explanatory value, although Duncan-daughter-Howland might be more parsimonious. I'm willing to consider both, though I favor the former.) A direct male line descent from Duncan to Howland explains those actions. For another example - Meera is apparently not betrothed to anyone. Why didn't Howland bring her to Winterfell at some point to explore the possibility of a Robb-Meera match? (Meera seems to have an even greater fascination with the world outside the crannogs than her father. She would likely have no objections to marrying someone other than a crannogman.) If Howland is the male line descendant of Duncan, Robert would likely have forbidden a Robb-Meera match.

I'd agree that Jenny is a mysterious character, but she wouldn't be less mysterious if she had a Mudd, Children of the Forest, or commoner background. Witches don't have to have noble blood, I assume.

In the OP, I concluded that the claim that Jenny was a crannogman had "mild" support. That was based on the impossibility of her being a native of Oldstones (confirmed), the significance of her presence at the former seat of House Mudd (both historical and symbolic) and her friendship with a CotF. The new evidence in TWoIaF increases that support, while also giving her a believable claim to nobility, if you aren't a prejudiced southerner.

The weak point in the OP argument is the lack of a link from Crannogman Jenny to House Reed in particular. Only two rather weak items support a Reed link - the quote from THK, and Howland's atypical behavior for a crannogman. Mixed with that is the fact that Jenny's CotF friend was actively looking to bring the PtwP prophesy to fruition, implying that Jenny and Duncan's marriage itself might have a place in the prophesy. That link is the bit of data I'm looking for in TWoW. If it shows up, Howland's actions suddenly become perfectly understandable.

Concerning the family tree, even mentioning that Duncan and Jenny had children would indeed be a spoiler. It would set off a massive dragonfly hunt among the readers, while GRRM seems to prefer to keep them hunting Blackfyres. TWoIaF was written very carefully to avoid ASoIaF spoilers. The four "loose ends" could all be significant, could all be red herrings, or could be a mix. Still, it would be vastly out of character for Yandel to fail to report Maegor's childless demise if he could. Likewise, it is much more probable that Duncan and Jenny had children than not. More than 90% of married couples in Westeros do.

I am basically contending that Duncan and Jenny's story is of fundamental importance to ASoIaF. There are obvious parallels with Robb and Jeyne, Dany and many possibilities, and likely future parallels involving Jon. It is also wrapped up with the PtwP prophesy. Howland Reed is even more important than anticipated, and now we may know why. GRRM is treating the story the same way he treats the stories of the Last Hero and Summerhall, teasing the readers but withholding vital data. I suspect he wants to surprise us.

P.S. Given that the wealth of information Howland is in sole possession of will require a good deal of time to be acted upon, his first appearance is much more likely to be in TWoW than ADoS IMO.

[Isobel Harper]

I found some additional "reed" symbolism that I thought best to share here.

He ended on his knees, with the silent knight's sword at his throat and his own lost in the reeds. (AFFC, Jaime V)

Jaime ends up on his knees, a sign a fealty, and loses his sword in the reeds, a symbol of a "Secret Targ." This could foreshadow that Jaime will eventually swear fealty to a Targaryen at some point in the future. The scene involves him losing a fight, so perhaps it is something he's forced into. The image of the silent knight (Ser Ilyn) makes me feel he might swear to Jon (who's direwolf is the "silent wolf") in some way, although I'm not certain on that point. I'm not a fan of the theory that Jon will leave the Night's Watch to lay claim to the IT, but I rather like the idea of the swearing fealty indirectly to a Targaryen ala Jaime being forced into joining the Night's Watch. Perhaps Aegon will have some mercy on him?

We also have some additional "Secret Targ" imagery in one of Tyrion's ADwD chapters.

"Duck!" came a shout. "Haldon!" Tyrion craned his head to one side, and saw a boy standing on the roof of a low wooden building, waving a wide-brimmed straw hat.

...

Duck was hallooing back by then. The mare splashed through the shallows, trampling down the reeds. The boy (Aegon) leapt down off the cabin roof to the poleboat's deck, and the rest of the Shy Maid's crew made their appearance. (ADwD, Tyrion III)

Duck rides towards Young Griff, knocking down reeds in order to reveal a boy who would later turn out to be Aegon. There is also the imagery of the wide-brimmed straw hat that is also connected to Egg in A Sworn Sword and The Mystery Knight.

Here are some examples:

Egg took off his wide-brimmed floppy straw hat.

...

Beneath his wide-brimmed straw hat, his face was smudged and dirty, his eyes large and dark.

(A Sworn Sword)

Egg had donned his floppy hat, to shade his eyes and keep the sun off his shaved head. Dunk liked to tease the boy about that hat, but just now he wished he had one like it. Better a straw hat than an iron one, beneath this sun.

...

Egg kicked the ground, his face as droopy as his big straw hat. "Aye, ser. As you say."

(The Mystery Knight)

[Lost Melnibonean]

I found some additional "reed" symbolism that I thought best to share here.

Jaime ends up on his knees, a sign a fealty, and loses his sword in the reeds, a symbol of a "Secret Targ." This could foreshadow that Jaime will eventually swear fealty to a Targaryen at some point in the future. The scene involves him losing a fight, so perhaps it is something he's forced into. The image of the silent knight (Ser Ilyn) makes me feel he might swear to Jon (who's direwolf is the "silent wolf") in some way, although I'm not certain on that point. I'm not a fan of the theory that Jon will leave the Night's Watch to lay claim to the IT, but I rather like the idea of the swearing fealty indirectly to a Targaryen ala Jaime being forced into joining the Night's Watch. Perhaps Aegon will have some mercy on him?

We also have some additional "Secret Targ" imagery in one of Tyrion's ADwD chapters.

Duck rides towards Young Griff, knocking down reeds in order to reveal a boy who would later turn out to be Aegon. There is also the imagery of the wide-brimmed straw hat that is also connected to Egg in A Sworn Sword and The Mystery Knight.

Here are some examples:

After leaving HH but before returning to rescue Brienne he had a dream. We know this was inspired by BR since Jaime rested his head on a weirwood stump.

Toward the end, BR, who sided with the red dragon against the brother he loved, sent Jaime's fallen KG brothers to hammer home Jaime's crime when he betrayed Aerys, notwithstanding Jaime's defense that Aerys planned to burn KL. Rhaegar reminded him that he left his wife and children in Jaime's hands. BR seems to be preparing Jaime to raise up Jon, Rhaegar's heir, as king.

And all for naught. They found only darkness, dust, and rats. And dragons, lurking down below. He remembered the sullen orange glow of the coals in the iron dragon's mouth. The brazier warmed a chamber at the bottom of a shaft where half a dozen tunnels met. On the floor he'd found a scuffed mosaic of the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen done in tiles of black and red. I know you, Kingslayer, the beast seemed to be saying. I have been here all the time, waiting for you to come to me. And it seemed to Jaime that he knew that voice, the iron tones that had once belonged to Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone.

Jaime I, Feast

Jaime identifies with the Warrior...

Why would Cersei need the Warrior? She has me.

Jaime II, Feast

And the Warrior protects children...

The Warrior stands before the foe,

protecting us where e'er we go.

With sword and shield and spear and bow,

he guards the little children.

Samwell II, Storm

Jaime wants to make good on his failed duty to protect Rhaegar's children...

"... So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it."

"There could be."

"How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says."

"My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance."

"Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically.

"Not if you kill the sons as well. Ask the Casterlys about that if you doubt me. Ask Lord and Lady Tarbeck, or the Reynes of Castamere. Ask the Prince of Dragonstone."

For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar's children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks.

Jaime I, Dance

Jaime doesn't believe that Rhaegar has any living children. But the George strongly hinted that Jamie will be a kingmaker...

"They belonged to Criston Cole, who served the first Viserys and the second Aegon." Jaime closed the White Book. "They called him Kingmaker."

Jaime II, Feast

But perhaps Jaime will believe Aegon's claim? Here is a telling quote from Barristan on his path to redemption after taking Robert's pardon...

"That was when I knew that to redeem myself I must find the true king, and serve him loyally, with all the strength that still remained me."

Daenerys II, Dance

And here's Jaime telling Lancel what he thought of Robert...

"Robert was no true king."

Jaime IV, Feast

When he descended for the feast that night, Jaime Lannister wore a doublet of red velvet slashed with cloth-of-gold, and a golden chain studded with black diamonds. He had strapped on his golden hand as well, polished to a fine bright sheen. This was no fit place to wear his whites. His duty awaited him at Riverrun; a darker need had brought him here.

Jaime IV, Feast

Black on Red, like the Blackfyre dragon...

Assuming Jaime is Cersei's valonqar, this quote would tie in nicely with Jaime unwittingly supporting the black dragon...

Black had never been a happy color on her. With her fair skin, it made her look half a corpse herself.

Cersei II, Feast

On the road with Illyrio, Tyrion describes a dream...

"I dreamed about the queen," he said. "I was on my knees before her, swearing my allegiance, but she mistook me for my brother, Jaime, and fed me to her dragons."

Tyrion II, Dance

So if I'm right, and Jaime, inspired in part by BR, supports Aegon, believing him to be Rhaegar's son, against Daenerys, Tyrion's dream could very well foreshadow the Kingslayer's fate.

[Lord Varys]

Ibbison,

well, the original line from THK could be a hint to a child of Duncan's marrying into House Reed - the dragonfly among the reeds - but nothing suggests that the mother have that dragonfly also has to be a Reed, no? I'm not completely against that theory - in fact, it has something to it, however you carry a lot of additional burden (like this stuff about Duncan abandoning his name, taking the name of his wife, etc.

But specifically in response to your OP:

1. There is no reason to assume that Howland's presumed Targaryen heritage had anything to do with his visit to the Isle of Faces. As far as we know, the Green Men have nothing whatsoever to do with the Targaryens. But even if we go with the suggestion others and I have suggested - that Prince Daemon may have survived his Battle Above the Gods Eye to eventually become a Green Man who is going to show up in future novels of the series - there is no reason to assume that this would have triggered or caused Howland's journey there. In fact, we don't know what the average crannogman does in regards to the Isle of Faces - perhaps plenty of crannogmen leaders/Reeds have visited the Isle in the past? We do not know that.

The idea that Howland - being raised non-Targaryen and apparently on a bad foot with his cousin, Aerys II - would have cared about Targaryen prophecies doesn't sound convincing to me, either. Sure, he may have, if he had prophetic dreams and all, but somehow I expect Prince Duncan to be somewhat disgusted by Jaehaerys' decision to marry their sister, and we don't know his view on the whole Aerys-Rhaella match, either. Jaehaerys was into the Ghost's prophecy - Aegon V was not (and Duncan perhaps neither).

2. Howland visiting Rhaegar at the tourney doesn't seem likely to me and is not supported by the text. Meera's tale gives us curiosity as Howland's motive, and we don't even know whether he knew in advance that Rhaegar would be there - I'd not be surprised if Howland spent quite some time on the island. And since we are talking about that: I think Howland's importance for the plot isn't all that much connected to Targaryen stuff (Jon Snow or himself) but rather to the reason why he went to the island and what he learned there.

If Howland wanted to talk to Rhaegar he could have done so elsewhere - after all, if he was Rhaegar's second cousin he could have gone to court and would have been received there (or on Dragonstone).

3. We already know why Aerys feared the Knight of the Laughing Tree. It had, apparently, nothing to do with Howland being involved in all that.

4. The idea that Howland would have enjoyed KG protection as Rhaegar's second cousin doesn't make any sense to me. Howland was fighting at the side of a rebel (Eddard Stark), and Robert Baratheon was Rhaegar's second cousin, too, yet this would) obviously not have protected him from the blades of KGs Selmy, Martell, and Darry at the Trident if they had gotten near Robert, nor would it have protected Robert from Dayne, Hightower, and Whent had Robert shown his face at the tower.

More importantly, Selmy seems to imply in ADwD that each king decides individually who is protected by his KG. Some kings restrict KG protection to the royal person, other extend it to the royal family, and others still even grant cousins, mistresses, and bastards KG protection. Aerys II obviously extended KG protection to the royal family (Rhaella, Rhaegar, and Viserys - and possibly Elia Martell and her children, too) but nothing whatsoever suggests that Aerys II put Howland Reed (or his parents) under KG protection. If that was the case one of Aerys' Seven would have resided with the Reeds at Greywater Watch.

Your argument about the KG being sworn to not harm princes of the blood (which Howland wouldn't be in any case, as the grandson of a prince who gave up his claim to the throne) as seen in THK is problematic, too. That was the KG of Daeron II which followed different rules than the KG of Aerys II who were allowed to enter tourneys in which Targaryens participated and did ride against the Prince of Dragonstone multiple times.

5. The idea that Robert hated everyone with Targaryen blood after the Rebellion is a stretch, too. He didn't eradicate the Tarth bloodline, either, and Lord Selwyn should generation-wise be as far removed from Princesses Daella or Rhae (Princess Daella, of course, and her husband being Ser Duncan the Tall) as Howland is from Duncan in your scenario (grandson). Howland most likely stayed in the Neck because that's what crannogmen do. They do not travel often.

Recent post:

I'm not only speaking about Yandel - although he could have told it, too - I'm saying that from the POV of the author there is no reason to keep Jenny's identity as a crannogwoman and Reed a secret as from there does not follow that Howland Reed is her descendant. For that one has to buy your theory that Duncan and Jenny actually continued the main branch of House Reed - which I still find very unlikely. Again, with their daughter marrying into House Reed (say, again 'for love') the whole theory in itself would make more sense.

Aegon V was rather close to the Starks at one point, and it would not surprise me if a Reed actually came to court and fell in love with Duncan's daughter (after all, he and Jenny lived at court throughout the reign of Aegon V).

Yandel mentions the Targaryen blood of House Tarth. I see no reason why he would not mention the Targaryen blood of House Reed - or continue to hold the crannogmen/Reeds in contempt if they were deemed worthy to marry into House Targaryen.

And actually, abdication does exist as a concept in Westeros. Yandel mentions it again when he discusses Rhaegar's plans for Harrenhal - a regency or forced abdication are mentioned as options how to deal with Aerys' madness. This means the people in Westeros know perfectly well what an abdication is.

Duncan did abdicate as Prince of Dragonstone not in regards to the Iron Throne - you cannot abdicate if you aren't the king, but apparently being Prince of Dragonstone is pretty much comparable to being a king/lord. And we know that the Princes of Dragonstone were the rulers of their lands in their own right. It wasn't an empty title.

In that sense I'd say Duncan abdicated as Prince of Dragonstone (under pressure, as he had to choose between Jenny and Dragonstone/the Iron Throne) and his father disinherited/passed him over by naming Jaehaerys Prince of Dragonstone and Heir Apparent to the Iron Throne in Duncan's stead.

What Tarly does is not necessarily only done to ensure Dickon's succession. It is also a way to get Samwell out of his sight and castle as he very much despises this son. Randyll Tarly most certainly could have found ways to change the succession in favour of Dickon without sending Sam to an order or killing him - having Sam giving up his claims in front of the Horn Hill bannermen, Mace Tyrell, and the king should have sufficed (especially if no one had objected to it). The idea that Sam could have successfully challenged Dickon's claim after Randyll had prepared him and not Sam to inherit for 20-30 years makes little sense to me.

As to Meera's marital status:

Perhaps Howland considers her his heir, and decided thus not betroth her to anyone? If Howland knows that Jojen is not going to succeed him anyway (and no, Bran did not eat him) then there would be no point to groom Jojen as his successor. But the Lady Reed would most likely not reside at Summerhall - nor do marriages between Reeds and Starks seem to be very common. Howland and Ned are friends, but the Reeds aren't considered to be a very noble house, even in the North (there is no crannogmen-Stark marriage in recent Stark history that we know of).

I'm not sure about it being a spoiler to reveal that Duncan and Jenny had children. They could have died, after all (presumably at Summerhall, with their parents).

[Isobel Harper]

I can always expect awesome post from you, Lost Melnibonean!

After Jaime recollects the Prince of Dragonstone and his children in ADwD, Jaime I (For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar's children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks.) there is a bit further foreshadowing just a few paragraphs further.

Pennytree proved to be a much larger village than he had anticipated. The war had been here too; blackened orchards and the scorched shells of broken houses testified to that. But for every home in ruins three more had been rebuilt. Through the gathering blue dusk Jaime glimpsed fresh thatch upon a score of roofs, and doors made of raw green wood. Between a duck pond and a blacksmith's forge, he came upon the tree that gave the place its name, an oak ancient and tall. Its gnarled roots twisted in and out of the earth like a nest of slow brown serpents, and hundreds of old copper pennies had been nailed to its huge trunk.

If the reader was not already thinking of Aegon, GRRM throws in a subtle reference to Duck, who is the son of a blacksmith, to help as a reminder. This scene also happens in Pennytree, another little D&E and Aegon connection.

There is also this bit of foreshadowing that the Kingsguard will be divided.

Ser Boros and Ser Meryn sat to his right, leaving an empty chair between them for Ser Arys Oakheart, off in Dorne. Ser Osmund, Ser Balon, and Ser Loras took the seats to his left. The old and the new. Jaime wondered if that meant anything. There had been times during its history where the Kingsguard had been divided against itself, most notably and bitterly during the Dance of the Dragons. Was that something he needed to fear as well? (ASoS, Jaime VIII)

[Ghost of Blackhaven]

I've had some crazy notions lately that dovetail into this thread. If your theory is true, what if, Lyanna's initial disappearance wasn't because she was abducted by (or ran off with Rhaegar) but what if she had run off with Howland and the two went to the Isle if Faces and got married in front of the Weirwoods, and when she returned to the shore she was then abducted by Rhaegar and his friends (since she was only ten leagues from Harrenhal, this seems like a possibility).

I was reading through this and had a question I didn't see clarified anywhere but I think could be interesting and possibly of the crackpot variety. If Howland and Lyanna were secretley wed in front of Weirwoods and conceived Meera and Jon. This makes them legitimate. Now Jon only has to deal with his NW vows to get the throne and not his illegitimacy as well. Could Bran be the one to confirm any of this for us, if it is true, with his weirwood visions? Howland sent Meera and Jojen to help Bran gain his powers. Could Howland be banking on Bran verifying his story about Lyanna through his visions and that's why he needed Meera and Jojen to help Bran? Or could Bran verifying that his aunt wed Howland just be an unintended side effects of the Reeds' mission that Howland would not have anticipated?

[Lost Melnibonean]

I can always expect awesome post from you, Lost Melnibonean!

After Jaime recollects the Prince of Dragonstone and his children in ADwD, Jaime I (For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar's children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks.) there is a bit further foreshadowing just a few paragraphs further.

If the reader was not already thinking of Aegon, GRRM throws in a subtle reference to Duck, who is the son of a blacksmith, to help as a reminder. This scene also happens in Pennytree, another little D&E and Aegon connection.

There is also this bit of foreshadowing that the Kingsguard will be divided.

:)

I think the conclusion that Jaime will support Aegon is nearly inescapable. And this makes it very clear that Jaime will be Cersei's valonqar.

[Isobel Harper]

^^ I don't see Jaime joining or being allowed to join Aegon's KG (even Aegon wouldn't be that forgiving) BUT I think it plausible that Jaime supports Aegon in some way, both to make amends for the past and to ensure that his remaining two children live. (The latter which will probably be unsuccessful. :( ) Maybe Jaime goes public about the twincest?

[Lost Melnibonean]

^^ I don't see Jaime joining or being allowed to join Aegon's KG (even Aegon wouldn't be that forgiving) BUT I think it plausible that Jaime supports Aegon in some way, both to make amends for the past and to ensure that his remaining two children live. (The latter which will probably be unsuccessful. :( ) Maybe Jaime goes public about the twincest?

Yeah, I haven't been able to figure a clean way to make Jaime one of Aegon's Kingsguard. But, as Jon Connington notes, naming persons to the Kingsguard can bind powerful families to the king. And the players in the Westerlands look to Jaime for leadership, especially with Kevan gone. Politics is the art of the possible. But more significantly than serving as a Kingsguard, what Jaime could do for Aegon is expose Tommen and Myrcella's true parentage. Perhaps this is how Brienne will cast down Cersei and take all that she holds dear, by convincing Jaime to come clean. Perhaps he'll end up on the Wall with Jon, and perhaps Brienne will end up as one of Aegon's Kingsguards?

[Lord Varys]

IH,

there are already multiple Kingsguard anyway. Renly had his Rainbow Guard, Joff and Tommen have the remnants of their 'father's' pitiful Seven, Stannis has none for some reason, Aegon is assembling his own Kingsguard, with Duck serving as his first knight, and Daenerys has her Queensguard. I doubt that there will any infighting in any of those, most certainly not among Jaime's so-called brethren - they are done.

I also see Jaime joining Aegon's Kingsguard. He could win his place among his Seven after/when he publicly tells the truth about the heritage of Cersei's children, enabling Aegon VI to take KL in a bloodless victory. Aegon has the advantage that Jaime did not, in fact, slay his father - which allows Aegon more leniency towards Jaime than Dany could allow herself in Aegon's position. More importantly, if Jaime came clean on the burning of KL he could also claim that his murder of Aerys helped save Elia and her children from a death through fire.

And Brienne's Targaryen heritage could most certainly help her and Jaime to join Aegon's team if they stay together after whatever happens with Catelyn. I imagine only Jaime's willingness to reveal the truth about his children can save his life.

[Isobel Harper]

I feel Jaime's fate is either protecting his child(ren) or joining the Night's Watch. When/If Jaime reveals the twincest, it would be political poison for him to join anyone's KG.

Brienne's fate seems to be headed towards swearing her sword to Sansa. I don't see her joining a Kingsguard (although maybe a Queensguard). Unless Sansa should end up married to a king.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Lord Varys - Thanks for the reply - especially the stuff on the OP. Here's my answer.

well, the original line from THK could be a hint to a child of Duncan's marrying into House Reed - the dragonfly among the reeds - but nothing suggests that the mother have that dragonfly also has to be a Reed, no? I'm not completely against that theory - in fact, it has something to it, however you carry a lot of additional burden (like this stuff about Duncan abandoning his name, taking the name of his wife, etc.

The hints about Jenny herself being a crannogman are clearly stated, and seem sound, if not conclusive. Even more exist. At the Winterfell harvest feast, the Walders call the Reeds (and crannogman as a whole) mudmen. Howland and Meera are both said to be able to "breathe mud". A strong link between crannogmen and mud is thus established. And Jenny is hanging out at the former seat of House ... Mudd. (This is not an in-universe point, of course, but a tip to the readers.) Jenny herself claims noble status. The weak point is linking her to House Reed.

The Stark family tree in TWoIaF also mentions a Stark bastard with a Fenn mother, just in case anyone wishes to raise questions about potential fertility. Convenient, no?

Concerning Duncan giving up the Targaryen name:

I can see why you might claim it sounds like a convoluted, contrived way to stick the name Reed on a male line Targ. However, it fits the data. Here's a list of the Targ references from the White Book in Jaime's POV chapter in ASoS. (The initials refer to the writer of the entry - Hightower or Selmy.)

Duncan, Prince of Dragonflies (GH), Prince Duncan the Small (GH)
King Aegon V Targaryen (GH)
King Aerys II (GH), King Aerys II Targaryen (BS), King Aerys II (BS)
Prince Rhaegar Targaryen (GH), Prince Rhaegar of Dragonstone (BS)

You would think that the knights of the KG would know that Aegon V, Aerys II, and Rhaegar were Targaryens, and wouldn't need to be reminded. Nonetheless, each one gets the Targ label once. Duncan never does. Nor is Duncan ever referred to as "Duncan Targaryen, Prince of Dragonflies" in the text, with the exception of the family tree in TWoIaF. It's easy to miss until you look for it. (Note - I don't have an electronic version. If you do, please feel free do do a search and post the results. If you can contradict this, please do.)

I call this a clue. GRRM is hiding something here. I think I've figured it out, but I can't prove it. That's why ADAtR is a hypothesis rather than a theory.

I'm more than willing to separate the hypothesis into two subvariants. I'll call the DAtR-DsH (Duncan-son-Howland) and DAtR-DdH (Duncan-daughter-Howland). That way you can support one and not the other if you wish.

1. There is no reason to assume that Howland's presumed Targaryen heritage had anything to do with his visit to the Isle of Faces.

The off-limits nature of the Isle of Faces is clearly established. The only people who get to visit the Green Men are the people the Green Men allow to visit them. The only two people we know of who might have visited them are Daemon Targaryen and Addam of Hull (a Velaryon bastard tied to the Targs). It seems that the Green Men are interested in House Targaryen. Howland's visit is clearly depicted as an exceptional occurrence. It might make sense if he was a greenseer, but he's not. In fact, pretty much everything about Howland's behavior is atypical for a crannogman. See next point.

The idea that Howland ... would have cared about Targaryen prophecies doesn't sound convincing to me, either. Sure, he may have, if he had prophetic dreams and all, but somehow I expect Prince Duncan to be somewhat disgusted by Jaehaerys' decision to marry their sister, and we don't know his view on the whole Aerys-Rhaella match, either. Jaehaerys was into the Ghost's prophecy - Aegon V was not (and Duncan perhaps neither).

Howland clearly is highly interested in prophecies - he sent his children to Winterfell based on Jojen's dream. It's quite obvious (from Aemon's comments, if nothing else) that the PtwP prophecy has something to do with both House Targaryen and the Others. I suspect Howland would be interested in that. (BTW, there's no evidence to support your suspicion about Duncan's feelings toward the J-S match. Aegon wasn't "disgusted" by incestuous matches - he just thought they "did more harm than good". We have no idea what Duncan thought on the issue. I agree that Aegon V was not influenced by Jenny's friend. His actions at Summerhall were based on old texts.)

Howland visiting Rhaegar at the tourney doesn't seem likely to me and is not supported by the text.

Meera is telling an edited version of the story. She admits that openly. She's not going to start revealing political secrets to Bran. It would be much easier for Howland to visit Rhaegar surreptitiously at Harrenhal than at Dragonstone or KL.

We already know why Aerys feared the Knight of the Laughing Tree. It had, apparently, nothing to do with Howland being involved in all that.

If you believe Yandel's story that Aerys thought TKotLT was Jaime Lannister, I've got a palace in Valyria you might be interested in buying. This is clearly unreliable. Joff took after Jaime, and was taller at 12 than Jon was at 14. Jaime at 15 was probably near 6', and unlikely to be mistaken for the "short of stature" KotLT, even by Aerys. Aerys was mad, not blind.

The idea that Howland would have enjoyed KG protection as Rhaegar's second cousin doesn't make any sense to me.

You seem to have confused two separate issues here. Howland (if he is indeed a male line descendant) would not enjoy KG protection, nor did I claim he would. He would enjoy protection from them. (Please note that I specifically stated that this would only work if Howland was a male line descendant.)

Here's Baelor Breakspear's quote from THK.

My brother erred when he demanded that the Kingsguard fight for his son. Their oath forbids them to harm a prince of the blood. Fortunately, I am one.

In ADwD, Selmy describes the various ways a king can use his KG. Sometimes they are tasked solely with protecting the king. At other times a king can have them protect others as well, with something similar to a standing order. He would entirely free to change this at any time, of course. Sometimes KG members are used for other tasks, such as leading an army. Selmy is simply noting that Daenerys issued him no standing orders to protect her husband.

Baelor's case is entirely different. He is stating that there is a provision within the KG oath itself that prohibits KG members from harming a prince of the blood. We are not familiar with the actual text of the KG oath, but here we learn a bit about it. What's a prince of the blood? "Any legitimate male line descendant" would be by far the most likely definition.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_du_sang

A prince of the blood is a person legitimately descended in dynastic line from any of a realm's hereditary monarchs. Historically, the term has been used to refer to men and women descended in the male line from a sovereign

Why would this rule even exist? A bit of reflection allows us to find that answer quite easily. The KG, formed in 10 AC, was the brainchild of Visenya, and she wrote their oath. Aenys, Aegon's son by Rhaenys, had already been born three years previously. By insuring that the KG could not be used against princes of the blood, Visenya made sure that Aenys or his progeny could not use the KG against any future sons of Aegon and Visenya herself.

Thus, if he were the son of Duncan's son, Howland would indeed be a prince of the blood, and the KG would not be able to harm him. Damon Blackfyre and his descendants, on the other hand, would not qualify, since Daemon was not born legitimate. That would account for the Daemon Blackfyre/Gwayne Corbray duel at Redgrass Field, and the Daemon III/Dunk encounter at Wendwater Bridge. Prince of the blood status is determined by , well, blood, not by name.

Westeros might define "prince of the blood" in a different way, but if we want to figure out just how they define it, we only need to set aside the issue of Howland Reed for a moment and consider Baelor, Gwayne, and Dunk. If we want to make those three cases fit, we have to adopt the definition I suggest. Then we look at Howland.

Baelor's quote from THK is the only mention of the "prince of the blood" we have in all the works, IIRC, but THK is still canon. Maybe GRRM placed it there, and only there, for a reason.

I have no idea what you are talking about when you claim "rules changed" between the reigns of Daeron II and Aerys II. Targaryen princes have participated in tourneys since the inception of the kingdom (including Aenys and Maegor), and KG knights have as well. There is no reason to think they were not allowed to meet. As long as tourney lances, designed to shatter easily, were used, there would be no problem. Targ princes trained regularly with KG knights (using blunt tourney swords, presumably) as well. If you dispute this, please cite evidence.

The idea that Robert hated everyone with Targaryen blood after the Rebellion is a stretch, too. He didn't eradicate the Tarth bloodline

However the Targ-Tarth link came about, we can be completely sure that they were behind Robert in the line of succession. If not for Duncan's abdication, Howland would be ahead of Robert. Bit of a difference there.

I'm saying that from the POV of the author there is no reason to keep Jenny's identity as a crannogwoman and Reed a secret as from there does not follow that Howland Reed is her descendant. For that one has to buy your theory that Duncan and Jenny actually continued the main branch of House Reed - which I still find very unlikely.

There is every reason to conceal Jenny's identity if indeed GRRM has crafted the story along the lines I suggest. Certainly, other possibilities exist, but GRRM is not required to take the most likely course, nor is he required to give us enough hints so we can figure everything out before the next book comes out. He likes to surprise his readers. I will freely admit right here and right now that part of the basis for ADAtR is trying to outguess GRRM. That's why ADAtR is a hypothesis, not a theory.

Aegon V was rather close to the Starks at one point,

Huh? When? Cite evidence, please.

and it would not surprise me if a Reed actually came to court and fell in love with Duncan's daughter (after all, he and Jenny lived at court throughout the reign of Aegon V).

This violates everything we know about the isolationist tendencies of the crannogmen.

Yandel mentions the Targaryen blood of House Tarth. I see no reason why he would not mention the Targaryen blood of House Reed - or continue to hold the crannogmen/Reeds in contempt if they were deemed worthy to marry into House Targaryen.

Again, House Tarth is behind House Baratheon in the succession. But for Duncan's abdication, House Reed would be ahead. Crannogmen are not considered worthy - I've supplied ample evidence to support that conclusion. That's the whole point.

The Tullys and the Tyrells got stiffed just as badly as Lyonel Baratheon did. Why didn't they revolt while he did? Because the insult to House Baratheon was vastly greater - Duncan married a crannogman.

And actually, abdication does exist as a concept in Westeros.

But not as an established legal process. Rhaegar tells Jaime that when he returns from the Trident he intends to summon a Great Council. Great Councils are only called when a new process (excluding women, passing over the rightful heir due to his father's instability) has to be agreed upon, or when new precedents need to be set. It's similar to a convention called to ammend the constitution. Or a mini-coup that everyone agrees is necessary and/or desirable. Rhaegar was going to have to ad lib.

Aegon V also had to ad lib, concerning Duncan. He just chose a different solution. And there was no council called in 240 AC to approve new processes.

What Tarly does is not necessarily only done to ensure Dickon's succession. It is also a way to get Samwell out of his sight and castle as he very much despises this son. Randyll Tarly most certainly could have found ways to change the succession in favour of Dickon without sending Sam to an order or killing him

None of that is correct. Here's Sam's story (from Jon's POV) -

Finally, after three girls in as many years, Ladty Tarly gave her husband a second son. From that day Lord Randyll ignored Sam, devoting all his time to the younger boy, a fierce, robust child more to his liking. Samwell had known several years of sweet peace with his music and his books.

The succession was Sam's right (and duty) by birth. That's how primogeniture works. Ask Stannis. Your assertion that Randyll Tarly could find "another way" is simply wrong.

FYI - I'm not sure if you read the whole thread. Upthread I stated that I personally don't think Jojenpaste is true, but I included it for the sake of completeness.

[Lord Varys]

Ibbison,

well, nobody believes in Jojenpaste. But that can't be repeated enough ;-).

I'd say the mudmen stuff refers to the crannogmen as a whole, considering they are living in a swamp. Now, it could be some subtle hint, but I actually would expect Targaryen references - something like 'the Brown Dragon' or 'the Muddy Dragon' for Howland and his ilk if they had dragon blood. Daemon II Blackfyre is called the Brown Dragon after he falls into the mud, so this would be a fitting way to insult the Reeds if they had Targaryen blood. Or simply 'the dragonflies' if that's all that important there. Some hints to obscure House Mudd only obfuscates stuff more, especially considering that the Walders certainly may know about the Duncan thing but not about Jenny's supposed Mudd blood.

And the other psychological thing would be - would the Reeds actually be subject to humiliation the way they are if they had legitimate Targaryen blood through the male line? Brienne's Targaryen blood is indeed from an elder branch, and thus further in the past, and possibly unknown to some (perhaps even herself). The Targaryens are revered and worshipped throughout Westeros - nothing illustrates this more than the naming habits of House Frey.

I think you have failed to double-check George's usual habit when talking about people with a moniker or nickname. He and his characters usually refer to people with such names in the way you try to make a special case for Prince Duncan. For instance, it is usually Aemond One-Eye, not Aemond One-Eye Targaryen, it is Prince Aemon the Dragonknight not Prince Aemon the Dragonknight Targaryen. It is King Baelor the Blessed, not King Baelor I the Blessed Targaryen, it is Daeron the Young Dragon, and so on. Sure, the full title/name is also given on occasion when a herald introduces such a prestigious character. In that sense I find it generally questionable to try to deduce what you try to deduce from the fact that Duncan didn't get the Targaryen name in the White Book. Especially since neither Aegon V nor Aerys II or Rhaegar don't get any nicknames therein, which sort of undermines your whole point and makes it unlikely that this is a good comparison.

Not to mention that the Duncan is still very much a prince - either Prince Duncan the Small, or the Prince of Dragonflies. This does not suggest that he lost his Targaryen name.

Not to mention, again, that there is no precedent for a Targaryen to ever give up his birth name or being not allowed to pass it on to his children.

If Addam visited the Isle of Faces - and I tend to forget that - he most likely landed there on Seasmoke (it should be hard for the Green Men to prevent a dragon from landing there). But this is besides the point. We don't know what crannogmen usually do, and just because one Velaryon may have visited the island - Daemon is entirely conjecture - doesn't mean they get a pass for the island. But the crannogmen certainly have a stronger ancestral connection to the ancient First Men and thus are much more likely to have ties to the Green Men than anybody else - hell, it may even turn out that many Green Men still alive today (if they aren't immortal) recruit themselves from the ranks of the crannogmen.

Jojen's dream is described as a green dream. Nothing connects it with his presumed Targaryen ancestry, and it would actually be strange if Jojen told lies about green dreams and the like if those could have been (or actually were) dragon dreams he had because of his Targaryen ancestry - surely there would have been no reason to keep that a secret from Bran?

Howland may be interested in Targaryen stuff if he is interested in the promised prince prophecy - but to be interested in that he does not have to have Targaryen blood. He could have spoken to Daemon Targaryen on the Isle - if he is and still lives there as a Green Man - or other Green Men could have instilled that interest in him. Targaryen blood is not required for that interest.

We know that the smallfolk (Dunk) abhors the notion of incest, and Yandel says that Egg's dislike of incest comes from his time among the smallfolk.

What I find curious about your Rhaegar-Howland connection is that you suddenly seem to use two standards - first the Reed-Targaryens are forced to the Neck because of their 'better legal claim' and then Howland is suddenly interested to reconnect with Aerys' son? Why would that be? And why about the frenzy of the whole Knight of the Laughing Tree stuff if Aerys actually believed it was Howland? Howland surely could not have escaped had Aerys wanted his head/burn right then and there at Harrenhal. If Aerys had trouble/issues with his kin in the Neck, Howland showing up there would have been insult/threat enough for Aerys to act, no?

I find the whole notion that Jaehaerys II or Aerys II would banish Duncan's children/grandchildren faulty especially since the Targaryen dynasty was greatly weakened after Summerhall. Jaehaerys obviously trusted Jenny's companion with her prophecy - why would he bear Jenny's children any ill will? And surely, the deaths of Duncan and Jenny at Summerhall along with Aegon V and (possibly) Betha and other kin would have helped to unite rather than push the survivors apart.

Your take on the whole Kingsguard thing is faulty. You are right that the Kingsguard of Daeron II is not allowed to fight against a prince of the blood - and especially not against the Prince of Dragonstone, Heir Apparent, Hand of the King, and Protector of the Realm - but nothing suggests that this is a thing that was the case at all times. For Daeron's KG it was also improper to fight against princes of the blood in a tourney - which is why the KG knights at Ashford did not participate in the tourney at all, less they ride against Valarr, Daeron, or Aerion. Other kings' KG - the KG of Aerys II for instance - was allowed and encouraged to ride against Targaryen princes, most notably Prince Rhaegar (in Lannisport and at Harrenhal). If a KG is allowed to endanger the life of a prince of the blood in a tourney - accidents happen, and a KG could very easily cripple or kill one of those he has sworn to protect - in Aerys' time, I think it is out of the question that a KG is not allowed to harm a traitorous second cousin of the king who actively participates in a rebellion against the rightful king - this is the case for both Robert and Howland Reed, after all. Howland is part of Ned's party, and thus a traitor - even if he would be technically under this protection from the KG thing.

Not to mention that historically KG were actually dispatched to murder innocents princes of the blood (for instances Arryk Cargyll when he was supposed to murder either Rhaenyra or her sons in disguise on Dragonstone). The idea that Daemon Blackfyre was no prince of the blood after his legitimation also makes little sense to me - legitimizing is undoing the legal stuff connected to bastardy, so for all intents and purposes all of Aegon's children would be princes and princesses, even if they are not styled as such.

Aegon V and the Starks:

His engagement for the Northmen during the long winter at the beginning of his reign suggests that he cared a lot. This is not likely if he had no personal friends and acquaintances in the North. And I doubt those were Boltons. It is further supported by the Stark marriage to Melantha Blackwood around the same time/somewhat after Egg's own marriage to Betha Blackwood. The Stark-Blackwood match could have been brokered by Aegon and Betha - and even if not, the Starks and Aegon V would have shared in-laws, especially if Betha and Melantha were sisters - that is more than we can say about Egg's connections to Lords Lyonel and Gerold (who at one point were backing him)

There is no precedent for enforcing a Regency upon a king who isn't incapacitated nor is there a precedent for a forced abdication. Rhaegar can either murder his father or stage a coup in the castle, or he can try to get the support of the Lords and prevent a war in his attempt to take away power from Aerys by including many lords through a (illegal) Great Council. What he wanted to do exactly after the Trident remains unknown. But Great Councils aren't necessities for kings. They can do whatever they want. Jaehaerys passed over Rhaenys without a Great Council, and rose to throne before Aerea and Rhalla without a Great Council.

TSS makes it clear that the wills and testaments of lords are very binding. They can be challenged legally, of course, but Lady Rohanne Webber could not undo her father's will demanding that she marry within a year or lose Coldmoat to her father's cousin. Surely Lord Randyll could draw up similar will passing over Samwell in favour of Dickon, no? If it was approved of by the Tarly bannermen, Lord Tyrell, the king, and Samwell and Dickon throughout Lord Randyll's lifetime, there is no reason why this thing should not stand legally. Randyll wanted to get rid of Samwell, and he succeeded in that. The idea that such things aren't possible in Westeros would make that a very rigid society which has no idea about the legal concepts of, well, contracts, and buying and selling lands and rights. That is not very likely.

Dickon's problem would be whether Samwell would honour the agreement after Randyll's death. Things could be different then, but if he had agreed to such a thing - like Prince Duncan obviously did, too - he would have clearly have to tell a different tale than he did when he agreed to the arrangement.

[Frey family reunion]

If Duncan the Small and Jenny had a child, isn't there a chance that the realm might not have known about it? Specifically I'm speaking of the possibility that Jenny was pregnant (but perhaps not showing) at the time of the Summerhall tragedy. We don't hear any more about Jenny's role in the court post Summerhall, isn't it possible that she may have fled back to the Neck (if indeed that is originally where she came from) after the Summerhall tragedy. Couldn't this be especially true if she didn't want anyone to know that she carried Duncan the Small's child?

[Isobel Harper]

^^Two things regarding Duncan and Jenny's possible children. First, lacking anything in-story concerning these possible children (yet?) does not mean that they didn't exist. The fate of Targaryens and their children being unknown is nothing new: We know nothing about what happened to Vaella, Maegor, or Aegon V's sister's and their children. Second, if the Reeds are descended from Duncan the Small, they wouldn't carry on the Targaryen name if they are descended through Duncan's daughter.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Lord Varys -

I think you have failed to double-check George's usual habit when talking about people with a moniker or nickname.

The point of this argument has nothing to do with titles, sobriquets, or nicknames. The point I clearly made is that Duncan is never referred to as Duncan Targaryen, either in the White Book or anywhere else. (For example, Aemond is routinely referred to by several styles, including "Aemond Targaryen".) Trying to cloud the issue by talking about the titles instead of the surname doesn't change the point.

Not to mention, again, that there is no precedent for a Targaryen to ever give up his birth name or being not allowed to pass it on to his children.

Not to mention, yet again, that Duncan's situation is itself unprecedented. A solution that is unprecedented as well is not only possible, it might be expected.

Jojen's dream is described as a green dream. Nothing connects it with his presumed Targaryen ancestry

Jojen's green dream abilities almost certainly are due to his crannogman heritage - I stated that. But he was visited in his dream by the 3EC. Brynden Rivers. Bloodraven. Bastard son of Aegon IV Targaryen Curious, I say.

What I find curious about your Rhaegar-Howland connection is that you suddenly seem to use two standards - first the Reed-Targaryens are forced to the Neck because of their 'better legal claim' and then Howland is suddenly interested to reconnect with Aerys' son?

Howland wasn't playing politics. What I'm implying is that the Green Men were using Howland as a link to Rhaegar. Howland is not merely "interested " the the PtwP prophecy, he is involved with those who are trying to bring it to fruition (although we do not know how active he is). The PtwP prophecy is a Targ prophecy - those involved with it will be much more likely to work with Howland if he is connected by family ties. As to "forced", see next point.

I find the whole notion that Jaehaerys II or Aerys II would banish Duncan's children/grandchildren faulty

I don't see the relevance of your argument - I never claimed that happened. If Duncan's children took the name Reed, abandoning the Court and returning to the Neck would be quite natural. It might be prudent as well later in Aerys' reign. After the Targ dynasty fell, Robert might have been more explicit.

Jaehaerys obviously trusted Jenny's companion with her prophecy - why would he bear Jenny's children any ill will?

No ill will, but Duncan's children would still be a threat to Jaehaerys' children. They would remove themselves to the Neck for the exact same reason Aemon removed himself to the Wall. The Targs learned their lesson during the Dance and the Blackfyre rebellions - do not allow any possible succession irregularities to occur.

Your take on the whole Kingsguard thing is faulty. You are right that the Kingsguard of Daeron II is not allowed to fight against a prince of the blood - and especially not against the Prince of Dragonstone, Heir Apparent, Hand of the King, and Protector of the Realm - but nothing suggests that this is a thing that was the case at all times. For Daeron's KG it was also improper to fight against princes of the blood in a tourney - which is why the KG knights at Ashford did not participate in the tourney at all, less they ride against Valarr, Daeron, or Aerion.

I'm afraid you are the one who is incorrect. The KG cannot harm Baelor in the Trial of Seven (where they are using war lances and sharp weapons) due to the KG Oath.

My brother erred when he demanded that the Kingsguard fight for his son. Their oath forbids them to harm a prince of the blood. Fortunately, I am one.

The KG Oath was devised by Visenya herself in the year 10 AC. We have no indication it has ever changed.

The KG's choice to avoid participation in the Ashford Tourney is another matter entirely, which becomes clear when you take their words in context.

"It would not be fitting for us to ride against those we are sworn to protect," answered Ser Donnel, red of hair and beard.
"Prince Valarr has the honor to be one of Lady Ashford's champions," explained Ser Roland, "and two of his cousins mean to challenge. The rest of us have come only to watch."

"Not fitting" has a very different meaning than "forbidden". Many KG knights have indeed ridden against princes in tourneys (with nonlethal weapons). Once you establish the context in which Ser Roland and Ser Donnel's explanations are set, their meaning becomes clear. Valarr's position as a champion is not deserved, but a case of political sucking up by Lord Ashford. Valarr is a competent, but not a distinguished jouster, and the tourney is rigged in his favor. It would not be "fitting" for the KG (who are depicted as true knights - note their courtesy toward Dunk) to participate in something so dubious. It would also not be "fitting" for the KG to ride against Daeron, who has no business being in the lists in the first place. Maekar is having some jealousy issues toward his older brother Baelor at Ashford, and is using Aerion to attempt to upstage Valarr. It would not be "fitting" for the KG to interfere in this family squabble between two princes and their sons. (The idea that rottenness lurks under the shining facade of knighthood is a major theme in THK, yet the KG still rise above it.)

Thus, The KG's lack of participation at Ashford is due to the fact that it would not be "fitting" for them to become involved in Targaryen family internal politics, (nor would it be fitting to discuss those issues with a hedge knight), and we can dispose of the proposition that Daeron II was changing KG rules for no apparent reason.

If a KG is allowed to endanger the life of a prince of the blood in a tourney - accidents happen, and a KG could very easily cripple or kill one of those he has sworn to protect -

It would actually be safer for a prince to joust against a highly skilled opponent (with tourney lances) than a lesser one - ask Henri II of France. (His young, inexperienced opponent forgot to drop the stump of his shattered lance and struck Henri in the face. Henri died from the injury.)

Not to mention that historically KG were actually dispatched to murder innocents princes of the blood (for instances Arryk Cargyll when he was supposed to murder either Rhaenyra or her sons in disguise on Dragonstone).

The rules pretty much got tossed out during the Dance. Many of the royals were killed by their kin, however. Perhaps Valyrian dragonlords developed a do-it-yourself ethos when it came to killing their family members, with no kinslaying taboo.

The idea that Daemon Blackfyre was no prince of the blood after his legitimation also makes little sense to me - legitimizing is undoing the legal stuff connected to bastardy, so for all intents and purposes all of Aegon's children would be princes and princesses, even if they are not styled as such.

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_du_sang
Children born out of wedlock to a French king or prince were never recognised as fils de France. However, if legitimised, the king might raise them to a rank just below or even equivalent to that of a prince du sang.

But not a true prince of the blood. (Of course, that's the French model, but it's suggestive. We need details we aren't going to get for a while.)

Aegon V and the Starks:

His engagement for the Northmen during the long winter at the beginning of his reign suggests that he cared a lot.

TWoIaF attributes his relief efforts to his concern for the smallfolk. We have literally no information on his relationship with House Stark.

There is no precedent for enforcing a Regency upon a king who isn't incapacitated nor is there a precedent for a forced abdication.
...
Jaehaerys passed over Rhaenys without a Great Council, and rose to throne before Aerea and Rhalla without a Great Council.

Jaehaerys didn't need a Great Council - his claim as a male trumped Aerea and Rhalla, it would seem. After all, the first ruler of Westeros was Aegon I, not his older sister Visenya. GRRM himself has said that succession issues are fuzzy. Otherwise, I fully agree with this paragraph.

Lady Rohanne Webber could not undo her father's will demanding that she marry within a year or lose Coldmoat to her father's cousin.

The Webbers held Coldmoat as a fief from the Rowans in return for a pledge of military service. That's how feudalism works. Forcing a widow (who cannot/is not allowed to perform military service) to remarry was common in Medeival Europe, although customs differed and abuses abounded. The Rowans were in a position to enforce the will, and it was in their interest to. This does not in any way change the fact that Sam was Randyll's eldest son, and could not be disinherited.
.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

If Duncan the Small and Jenny had a child, isn't there a chance that the realm might not have known about it? Specifically I'm speaking of the possibility that Jenny was pregnant (but perhaps not showing) at the time of the Summerhall tragedy. We don't hear any more about Jenny's role in the court post Summerhall, isn't it possible that she may have fled back to the Neck (if indeed that is originally where she came from) after the Summerhall tragedy. Couldn't this be especially true if she didn't want anyone to know that she carried Duncan the Small's child?

Duncan married Jenny in 240 AC. Summerhall happened in 259 AC. If they had children, they should have had them by then, but this is within the realm of possibility if Jenny survived. Many think she died at Summerhall. Some think she survived, but went mad. (High in the halls of the kings who are gone/Jenny would dance with her ghosts - Tom O'Sevens sings in the ASoS epilogue.)

^^Two things regarding Duncan and Jenny's possible children. First, lacking anything in-story concerning these possible children (yet?) does not mean that they didn't exist. The fate of Targaryens and their children being unknown is nothing new: We know nothing about what happened to Vaella, Maegor, or Aegon V's sister's and their children. Second, if the Reeds are descended from Duncan the Small, they wouldn't carry on the Targaryen name if they are descended through Duncan's daughter.

That's another possibility. If you've read the whole thread, especially my recent exchanges with Lord Varys, I've suggested splitting the hypothesis into two variants - Duncan-son-Howland and Duncan-daughter-Howland. I prefer the first, but either might be true, and discussion of both is welcome here, of course.

[Pain killer Jane]

I really enjoy this theory. This also could satisfy Moqorro's prophesy to Tyrion about an Old Dragon in the personage of Howland Reed. I know some have speculated that the Old Dragon can be either BR or Maester Aemon but Aemon is dead and BR is dying in that cave. So more than likely he will be dead in tWoW.

But the Old, not just in age, could also be a reference to the fact Howland is the senior member (especially if he is the son of the son of Duncan) of Daenerys' family now that Maester Aemon is dead and Bloodraven would have expired.

Also I think if I am remembering correctly, Jenny was rumored to be a witch and symbolically Dragonflies were a witch's animal or sent by the devil.

Also the aspect of BR reaching out to Jojen can also be explained not just through the Targ blood. Duncan's mother was a Blackwood (Blood of the First Men) as was Bloodraven's mother. If Howland is Duncan's grandson then Bloodraven failing abilities and health could have been aided by strong blood ties in order to reach out to Jojen.

Here is another, many people have speculated that Edric Dayne is in hiding in the Neck. Some have even speculated that Ashara is Jyanna. So Edric Dayne, the custodian of Dawn, is also with family but not because of the theory of Ashara is Jyanna but because Ducan the small's grandmother, Dyanna was a member of house Dayne.

[Ghost of Blackhaven]

I'd say the mudmen stuff refers to the crannogmen as a whole, considering they are living in a swamp. Now, it could be some subtle hint, but I actually would expect Targaryen references - something like 'the Brown Dragon' or 'the Muddy Dragon' for Howland and his ilk if they had dragon blood. Daemon II Blackfyre is called the Brown Dragon after he falls into the mud, so this would be a fitting way to insult the Reeds if they had Targaryen blood. Or simply 'the dragonflies' if that's all that important there. Some hints to obscure House Mudd only obfuscates stuff more, especially considering that the Walders certainly may know about the Duncan thing but not about Jenny's supposed Mudd blood.

Just spit balling here but could the fact that the sigil of House Reed being a Lizard Lion, a relative of the dragon, be a reference to relation between House Targaryen and House Reed. I also seem to remember a quote about a legend that crannogmen rode Lizard Lions into battle. If Targaryens ride dragons and Reeds ride/rode lizard lions that kind of screams relation to me. That seems to be a plausible connection to me but I could be off base.

[Eddy of the Godswood]

Just spit balling here but could the fact that the sigil of House Reed being a Lizard Lion, a relative of the dragon, be a reference to relation between House Targaryen and House Reed. I also seem to remember a quote about a legend that crannogmen rode Lizard Lions into battle. If Targaryens ride dragons and Reeds ride/rode lizard lions that kind of screams relation to me. That seems to be a plausible connection to me but I could be off base.

House Reed is old house, the lizard lion sigil predates Duncan the Small and Jenny of Oldstones.

I find this theory fascinating, and oddly convincing compared to most far out theories. There's definitely a hell of a good chance it's true. Great job OP.