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aDwD - Only Five Chapters To Go?


Daena the Defiant

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I'd say more "hoping" than "planning." Also, he had two possible announcements, and I think he has said both are now not going to happen, so that puts the whole "it had to be ADwD" theory in doubt a little, because if there was another thing that was delayed by him not being well, then there could be two other things. I still think he was talking about ADwD as one of the announcements, just because I think he would've been more specific in saying that he wasn't talking about ADwD if that was the case, to not get fans hopes up.

agreed -

which of course begs the question - if one was the adwd announcement, and both now need to be postponed, then what was the other? if he was going to announce that hbo already greenlit a second season, it wouldn't be affected by him being sick for a while, so that wouldn't be it... i'm somewhat beside myself wondering what the other item might have been (still assuming of course that one of them was the adwd announcement).

but if we ever do find out - it won't be for a little while, i guess...

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I think its pretty clear that aDwD being done was one of the potential announcements. There is a lot of options with regards the second announcement. Could be Wild Cards, a new short story collection or some new merchandise. Anything that would require him spending a bit of time reviewing. Clearly he never managed to finish that review given his illness.

The indications suggest the publishers are hoping to turn around the book in 3 to 4 months from GRRM finishing. (Hence I very much doubt we will see the book before GoT starts airing ). And I wouldn't get too excited about when he may finish. This illness highlights how difficult it is to nail down a finish date. Anything can happen. But at least he is getting close.

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I think its pretty clear that aDwD being done was one of the potential announcements. There is a lot of options with regards the second announcement. Could be Wild Cards, a new short story collection or some new merchandise. Anything that would require him spending a bit of time reviewing. Clearly he never managed to finish that review given his illness.

The indications suggest the publishers are hoping to turn around the book in 3 to 4 months from GRRM finishing. (Hence I very much doubt we will see the book before GoT starts airing ). And I wouldn't get too excited about when he may finish. This illness highlights how difficult it is to nail down a finish date. Anything can happen. But at least he is getting close.

Yeah, the later get into 2011 the less likely it will be that ADwD will be in our hands before or even near April 17th (when GoT premieres) but I would be honestly shocked if the book wasn't finished within the next month or two, and then maybe released sometime in the summer. It is hard with these discussions of "possible announcements" not to get our hopes up for the announcement of completion, and I hope that he really is as close to being finished as the fans seem to think.
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According to multiple reports, a Random House PR guy was on hand to tell journalists at the press junket that an announcement on A Dance with Dragons should be expected 'soon'. Some have taken that as confirmation that GRRM hoped to announce completion this weekend but his illness has pushed that back a few weeks. Of course, it is possible it was about something else.

Oddly, one rumour (credibility uncertain) that I heard was that GRRM's illness has not impacted when Random House wanted to publish the novel. That is slightly disappointing as it suggests that RH/Bantam will not hew to the completion + 3 months timeframe that they'd previously suggested. I can confirm that in late October Voyager representatives told me that they will pull out all the stops to get ADWD on the shelves ASAP after it's turned in, so once again American readers anxious to get the book early may find that ordering from the UK pays dividends.

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I hope Amazon.uk releases the kindle version at the same time as the book is published in the UK, then I can download it and read without waiting for it to be shipped across the Atlantic.

Hopefully. Voyager have finally embraced the Kindle and given AGoT (at least) a thorough re-edit and formatting for the new Kindle edition, with the rest to follow. I assume they'll do the same for ADWD (though I can see that perhaps causing a slight delay).

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Given the story in Entertainment Weekly (click here) and the nature of George's last blog post, I'm starting to really think that both the publisher and author are shooting for a release date in April, or May at the latest.

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Oddly, one rumour (credibility uncertain) that I heard was that GRRM's illness has not impacted when Random House wanted to publish the novel. That is slightly disappointing as it suggests that RH/Bantam will not hew to the completion + 3 months timeframe that they'd previously suggested. I can confirm that in late October Voyager representatives told me that they will pull out all the stops to get ADWD on the shelves ASAP after it's turned in, so once again American readers anxious to get the book early may find that ordering from the UK pays dividends.

Does anyone know the name of the website that ships books from the U.K. to the U.S. for free? It's some sort of online bookstore, I'd never heard about it until recently. I read about it on a message board relating to aSoIaF, but I can't remember which one or where, and I want to find it and bookmark it in case this scenario does come to be.

EDIT: NM, I found it... it's here for anyone else that might be interested.

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Interesting and intriguing.

"The fifth book is almost done. I hope to deliver that one soon"

Then George came out! We all clapped. He sat down and gave a brief talk about how usually he gives a speech and does Q&A but he was short on time. Announced the HBO series premiere date. Then said he'd hoped to make an announcement about the book but got sick and that he hoped an announcement about the book would come "SOON" but that he'd said that before and wouldn't dig himself any deeper.

How soon is soon? R'hllor knows. But based on all of that, hopefully not, "Maybe before the end of the year if we're lucky," 'soon'.

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I know that a pessimistic outlook is just about standard on this forum but given all the information we have, it seems likely that George felt he could have finished the book by January 9th had he not gotten ill on December 24th. To me that reads as if he only needs a couple of weeks at best, or a month at worst, to finish the book. Granted, he is still recovering from the illness; so there is likely to be some delay, but even he thinks he will begin writing sometime this month. And, while I'm at it, hopefully the Jets will lose this coming weekend which will eliminate one big distraction. ;)

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More good news, thanks Wert.

Particularly the second quote, did GRRM, actually say he was hoping to make an announcement about the book? That doesn't seem to be his style, particularly after so many missed deadlines. If he DID say he was announcing something about the book, then I would take that as a good indicator that we can expect an announcement within the next couple of months...

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Particularly the second quote, did GRRM, actually say he was hoping to make an announcement about the book?

Presumably he did or the guy from that forum lied. Which seems rather pointless and it would be found out eventually. :)

Besides, it was always very likely that the announcement was about the book. So this just removes the last threads of doubt. And while GRRM has been avoiding commenting on a finish date for years, he must be close enough now that he thought it reasonably safe. Unfortunately, illness insured he spoke too soon.

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I know that a pessimistic outlook is just about standard on this forum but given all the information we have, it seems likely that George felt he could have finished the book by January 9th had he not gotten ill on December 24th. To me that reads as if he only needs a couple of weeks at best, or a month at worst, to finish the book. Granted, he is still recovering from the illness; so there is likely to be some delay, but even he thinks he will begin writing sometime this month. And, while I'm at it, hopefully the Jets will lose this coming weekend which will eliminate one big distraction. ;)

LOL. Amen! Go PATS!!!!

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From Winter is Coming:

Lastly we have the A Dance with Dragons news: The news is…

There is no news. Officially. In fact, it's so "officially" that George openly lamented about how much he had wanted to be able to give us "the news," but because he had been sick, he'd "lost a week," and therefore "the news" could not be told just yet. Not quite yet. Even though he had been making "GREAT" progress on ADwD up until a week ago, and then–

I'll spell this out for the slow: Any week now. Could this be a GRRM-sized week? Perhaps. (That could equate to a month. Maybe two. Who really knows what other projects he's going to be juggling?) Do I know anything official? No. But I know Hodor-sized hints when I hear them.

Brandon Sanderson weighs in with how long he estimates it'll take to get the book on the shelves. He backs up the 3-6 month estimates seen elsewhere. He also tells the story of how GRRM gave him his first 'Hugo Loser' badge (an old and honourable tradition at Worldcon; GRRM got his thirty years earlier) at Worldcon 2006, which I hadn't heard before.

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Is it wrong that I keep checking GRRM's Not A Blog hourly in hopes that he will have posted THE UPDATE?

In some ways, I take it as a good thing that he's stayed away from it. Gives me the impression that he's trying to finish the thing without any distractions. Here's hoping! :thumbsup:

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Is it wrong that I keep checking GRRM's Not A Blog hourly in hopes that he will have posted THE UPDATE?

In some ways, I take it as a good thing that he's stayed away from it. Gives me the impression that he's trying to finish the thing without any distractions. Here's hoping! :thumbsup:

Not wrong (I remember doing the same after AFFC's penultimate update, when it was clear he was almost there; I still missed it by hours) but probably futile right now. AFAIK he only flew home today :)

As for 'when', I have no idea. Fabio at WiC said it best: it could be next week or it could be next month. We don't know quite how long it'll take GRRM to kick back into gear after his illness and trip, if ADWD needs a few weeks work or a few days, whether a last editing pass after that is needed etc etc. If GRRM posts a blog update we may get a better idea or he may decide not to mention it and get people worked up.

I'm sure the news will make itself known on the Internet with the force of a nuclear bomb going off ;)

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I'm somewhat surprised that Brandon didn't address the television series in his time estimate discussion. He specifically mentioned how TOR could have done with another month or two in regard to ToM but wanted to get the book out during the holiday season. Provided that George can complete the book by the end of the month, isn't it reasonable to assume the publishers will try to get it out by mid-to-late April in order to sync with the television series to some degree (i.e., cross promotion)? This would give them something like 3 1/2 months or so. Also, and those with better knowledge are free to correct me, isn't most of of ADwD already edited?

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Provided that George can complete the book by the end of the month, isn't it reasonable to assume the publishers will try to get it out by mid-to-late April in order to sync with the television series to some degree (i.e., cross promotion)? This would give them something like 3 1/2 months or so.

Unfortunately, if GRRM finishes by the end of January, mid-to late April is 2.5 to 3 months. I don't think anyone has suggested that the publishers could turn it around in less than 3 months. Its because the publishers have already done some editing that 3 months is doable. Normally books take double that (it seems).

The big cross-promotion will be the re-release of aGoT in paperback. I'm sure the publishers would have been happy to take advantage of the release of the TV series if GRRM had finished by the 9th Jan but since he hasn't, i'm sure they will still be happy to take advantage of the fact that the series in still airing when they release the book. And if there is a bigger delay, i'm sure they will be happy to take advantage of the end of S1 to released aDwD.

A TV series is a dream for the publishers. While they are not happy that the book is late, they are doing pretty well overall.

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