Update on the "Winds"

[Good Guy Garlan]

AGOT definitely did not take 2 years. He wrote it, by all accounts, between 1991 and 1996 with a break of 12-18+ months in there. So 3-5 years. Plus, I agree with the assertion that it's more accurate to say he wrote one massive book over 9 years, as all three books were originally conceived as one continuous narrative and hundreds of pages from one MS would spill over into the next. When you look at it that way his writing pace on ASOIAF has been pretty consistent, though still slowing down.

9 years would still place each of the first 3 books at an average time of 3 years, half of what he took to put out Dance. And even so, between 1996 and 2000 he published Clash and Storm, let's say at about 2 years each. If you wanna get even more general:

1991-2000: 3 bona fide, complete novels

2001-2010: half of a novel

2011-2016: half of a novel

How on do you get from that that his writing pace has remained "pretty consistent"? 

 

 

[mormont]

Like I said in another thread, just the fact that Martin took only 2 years to write each of the first three books and he needed 5 to 6 years for Feast and Dance is proof that not only you CAN, effectively, rush art, but also that sometimes you SHOULD. 

Correlation is not causation, even putting aside the fact that the best book in the series (AGOT) was definitely not written in two years and decidedly not written under any time pressure.

One other note: guys, if you're going to say that GRRM said this, his editor said that or his wife said the next thing and you can't produce a citation or any evidence, only a fuzzy memory that you read it somewhere but you can't remember where or when? Please, don't bother. It is likely as not wrong and definitely not helpful to the discussion in any way.

[Faint]

I think it is accurate to think that Martin's writing has slowed down a great deal when you consider that he supposedly had something like 200 manuscript pages already written before he commenced writing The Winds of Winter in earnest. 

This is pure speculation but my sense from reading his blog post is that he might have under a 1000 manuscript pages right now, which translates into a writing pace of something like 10-15 book pages a month. 

[Good Guy Garlan]

Correlation is not causation, even putting aside the fact that the best book in the series (AGOT) was definitely not written in two years and decidedly not written under any time pressure.

Eh, I don't know. He wrote my personal favorite book in the series (Clash) and the one routinely considered the peak of the series by most of the fandom (Storm) at an average of two years apiece. He certainly published both in a span of four years. Meanwhile, he took 5 and 6 years respectively to put out the most divisive, if not outright disappointing entries in the series. 

So the odds are against Winds, I'd say. 

[ellstaysia]

an interesting GRRM quote from 2013...

"I do sometimes wonder if it will be possible to tie up all the loose threads in my saga. I have nightmares when I think about wrapping everything up in the last two books. I think I can do it, but we’ll see when I get to the end. Sometimes these damn characters have a mind of their own and refuse to do what I want them to do. I guess we’ll know if it all comes together in another decade or so!"

http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2013/11/ten-tips-on-writing-a-fantasy-saga-from-game-of-thrones-author-george-r-r-martin/

[ChillyPolly]

I think it is accurate to think that Martin's writing has slowed down a great deal when you consider that he supposedly had something like 200 manuscript pages already written before he commenced writing The Winds of Winter in earnest. 

This is pure speculation but my sense from reading his blog post is that he might have under a 1000 manuscript pages right now, which translates into a writing pace of something like 10-15 book pages a month. 

My worst fears are worse than yours are.  I searched his blog post in vain for any firm confirmation that has he made any progress at all.  He talks alot about what he wanted to do, what he tried to do, what he hoped to do, but very very little about what he actually achieved.

But yes, he had about 200 pages left over from ADWD.  About 100 pages were bumped in 2010, and about another 100 in 2011.

In July 2012, during the book tour, he said he had 200 pages in a "more or less finished state", and another 200 in "a very rough first draft form that is going to require alot of revision".  Almost certainly, all of this is leftover material.

In early to mid 2014 he finally wrapped up his work on the World Book, for which he supposedly had submitted many hundreds of pages.  My suspicion is he had made no significant progress on Winds prior to June 2014.

In June 2014, Anne Groell stated that she had received only 168 pages from George, but knew that at least one other chapter existed.  This appears to refer to the same material George talked about in July 2012.   Nonetheless, she expressed hope of seeing Winds "reasonably soon", which to me implies she anticipated a change in focus from George, now that the World Book was out of the way.

From this point onwards, there are signs that GRRM is putting aside other things to (finally) focus on writing Winds.  For instance, no more HBO scripts; no more World Book.  But with what result?  1.5 years later after Ann Groell's depressing revelation, and his update tells us next to nothing?

Hundreds of pages?  We knew that already.  200+200=400.

Dozens of chapters?  Those 400 pages might amount to about 2 dozen chapters.

Added to and revised a Theon chapter?  Okay.  Is it the one we already know about, or a different one?

I'd be surprised if he had not made some progress.  But he has not exactly confirmed any.  And it seems to me he damns himself with faint praise when he angrily refutes the charge that he has no pages at all.  I was hoping an update would give us slightly more promising news than that.

[md-shafty]

My worst fears are worse than yours are.  I searched his blog post in vain for any firm confirmation that has he made any progress at all.  He talks alot about what he wanted to do, what he tried to do, what he hoped to do, but very very little about what he actually achieved.

But yes, he had about 200 pages left over from ADWD.  About 100 pages were bumped in 2010, and about another 100 in 2011.

In July 2012, during the book tour, he said he had 200 pages in a "more or less finished state", and another 200 in "a very rough first draft form that is going to require alot of revision".  Almost certainly, all of this is leftover material.

In early to mid 2014 he finally wrapped up his work on the World Book, for which he supposedly had submitted many hundreds of pages.  My suspicion is he had made no significant progress on Winds prior to June 2014.

In June 2014, Anne Groell stated that she had received only 168 pages from George, but knew that at least one other chapter existed.  This appears to refer to the same material George talked about in July 2012.   Nonetheless, she expressed hope of seeing Winds "reasonably soon", which to me implies she anticipated a change in focus from George, now that the World Book was out of the way.

From this point onwards, there are signs that GRRM is putting aside other things to (finally) focus on writing Winds.  For instance, no more HBO scripts; no more World Book.  But with what result?  1.5 years later after Ann Groell's depressing revelation, and his update tells us next to nothing?

Hundreds of pages?  We knew that already.  200+200=400.

Dozens of chapters?  Those 400 pages might amount to about 2 dozen chapters.

Added to and revised a Theon chapter?  Okay.  Is it the one we already know about, or a different one?

I'd be surprised if he had not made some progress.  But he has not exactly confirmed any.  And it seems to me he damns himself with faint praise when he angrily refutes the charge that he has no pages at all.  I was hoping an update would give us slightly more promising news than that.

Expect early 2017 at the best case scenario. Remember Dance updates? George could be 2 years away from finishing if history repeats itself. I also expect it will be his last book and the series wont finish until he's dead...even then maybe longer if his family won't release the rights to the series.

[lokisnow]

Ever wondered about the missing climax of Dance, the alleged finished chapters of the battle of ice and of meereen? Oh they couldn't "fit"? Really?

you could have deleted the silly appendix (put in a qr code to the appendix online and include it with the ebook) and published the complete book with climax. But they didn't they "cut" the climax and published it with 70 pages of appendix which us nothing more than a list of dramatist personae mostly deceased.

Why would anyone ever publish a book without a climax? Because like the climax was never finished , just drafted, and they had to go to printers to publish right after the end of season one.

It's amazing. He wrote one long book in nine years and still hasn't completed another long book in 16 years.

[The One And Only]

That's the thing about people who say AFFC & ADWD are great books.  Even if you combine them together, they still don't have a good ending.  That ending was saved for the next book.  Not good.Not good.

[A spoon of knife and fork]

I don't agree that the gap would have been better, it was a bad idea from the start for many characters' stories and arcs. The gap works for Dany but not Westeros outside of maybe the Vale and Brienne's adventures. Dany's unsuccessful reign in Meereen is largely skipped and while that's well and good back in Westeros almost everything is a mess due to either halting the process of some stories or relying on flashbacks in others.

Bran had not yet found Bloodraven as of the end of ASOS so we'd find Bran years into his training with Bloodraven with no idea how he got there. Martin would have to do flashbacks of how Coldhands led Bran to Bloodraven.

We didn't have to see Catelyn travel from Riverrun to the Renly/Stannis in acok to understand what happened (or 100 other examples).  What about the phrase "...Coldhands brought us to Bloodraven..." doesn't work for you?  It can literally be part of a sentence. 

Same with Arya who had not yet arrived on Braavos by the end of ASOS. So we'd be re-introduced to her years into her training with no idea how she found the HOBW and having to be told through flashbacks.

Sounds a lot better than what we got.  Open with her flipping out and assassinating someone, then have the story be about her gradual return to being Arya. I don't see the need for flashback, since she may not really remember much of the training, nor is it all that relavent, other than the skills she has learned, which would quite easily be demonstrated in a show - don't - tell style.  

Stannis waiting five years to march South makes little sense,

It makes a lot of sense given he has fuck all in terms of an army.  What's he going to do if he goes south?  Presumably he would be trying to build support in the north. 

neither does Tormund being let in after five long years when Mance was in such a hurry to get them below the wall in ASOS.

It would be quite possible for Jon or Stannis to have let the wildlings in off-page.  Easy to tell in a short diaglogue between Jon and Tormund.  It would be the basis for the growing discontent among Jon's men and setting Jon's assassination up. 

Same with the Others waiting five years to attack.

Haha well they've waited for - fucking - ever in the existing books too, so what's a few more years?  

Alternatively open with Jon the wildlings and the NW already fighting them, and failing badly.  Like, ya know, actually progress the plot.

Sam would be re-introduced in Oldtown years into his training as well and we'd have to learn why he was sent there via flashbacks.

Sam in Oldtown is irrelevant fluff.  Have him returned to the Wall fully trained as a Maester and Jon's right hand man.  If he learned something of importance there, he can tell Jon about it.  

What happens with the Boltons? Does Roose take five years to get past the Moat or are we reintroduced to them already back at the Dreadfort and in full charge of the North? Does it take Manderly and Umber five years to finally take a stand against him after knowing about Rickon all that time?

Good question.  I suspect the political situation in the northwould be greatly simplified.  Possibly, the Boltons will not have taken Winterfell and instead Stannis would.  Or the Boltons would be there, but no one will have done anything because usually people don't do anything unless they feel they have a good chance of success. 

Tyrion hides out at Illyrio's for five years? He would have to because him taking five years by sea to find Dany is absurd. Same with Varys doing nothing for five years.

It would be nice to have Dany meet Tyrion on page but that hasn't even happened in the existing books so it probably wouldn't happen until after the 5y gap either.  Also sure, why not have him be a drunken mess in Pentos for awhile, at least we don't have to read about it in real time.  

Jon ruling at the Wall for five years of "peace" is highly suspect. Did the Wildlings who were defeated go back into the forest for five years or is the story picked back up with them already integrated south of the Wall with only Tormund's people not yet there?

Jon's story works really well with the 5 year gap.  Just have to set the stage that there are some increasing tensions due to the presence of the wildlings, maybe there have been some crimes and the old guard are upset and the others havn't shown themselves so people ahve started to whisper Jon is a liar? 

Why can't Tormund's people come south with the rest, if they do come?

Euron takes over the Iron Islands and does nothing for five years?

Euron is irrelevant fluff.  

If twenty years of plotting has been too long for some fans to take Doran seriously, try twenty five.

Dorne is irrelevant fluff.  

Cersei's story would have been a mess. I guess there would have had to be another High Septon during the five years because the current one wouldn't have suffered Cersei for such a long time. Qyburn taking five years to complete Robert Strong doesn't make sense nor does hiding him for several years in the Red Keep seem to be a good option. Tywin's funeral is told via a flashback by either her or Jamie as well.

Cersei was supposed to be a slow decline into paranoia and "madness" ala Aerys.  Instead we got a hamfisted prophecy mess.  I think if there was a 5 year period of her rule to look back on than the changes to her character would have seemed much less ridiculous.  Also, I hate what GRRM did with Cersei in feast - he completely ruined her as a character I think because he felt the need to accelerate this process.  It should never have been told from her PoV either Stick someone of interest there and have them comment on her decline.  See the Jaime chapters in ASOS for what this should have looked like.  

Edit: And who on earth cares about details like Tywin's funeral??  The purpose of that scene in the book was character deverlopment for people like Tommen, Jaime and Cersei. This can be achieved in many other ways.   Nothing of plot importance occurred, as we already knew Tywin was dead.  

Too many issues. It was better to continue to the story without it. Even a one year gap would have been problematic. There will be other opportunities for a time skip down the line if he so desires.

We'll never know if we would have had a better book.  Furthermore, I do believe George when he said he tried it but just couldn't get it to flow properly.  Still I don't think it was impossible to have a much streamlined version of the story.  George decided he was interested in telling side-stories about tertiary characters more than advancing the stories of the main characters in the series.  That's OK I guess if that's what he wants to do, but it's definitely not what I personally was interested in reading.  Nor am I now.  

[ckongo]

That's the thing about people who say AFFC & ADWD are great books.  Even if you combine them together, they still don't have a good ending.  That ending was saved for the next book.  Not good.Not good.

People will always disagree so it's expected some people will feel AFFC and ADWD were better than the first three for example, although I can't begin to understand the people who think AFFC especially was the best in the series.

 

Those books, even together, felt more like fragments of a book; together a very large fragment of a story. It's been said before. Very little happens in the last two books. The first three certainly could drag on at times, but they had memorable moments, and set things up for the next book too. When the first three were over it felt like a good break off point. AFFC and ADWD though? Not so much.

[ckongo]

This isn't exactly true. First, George has said many times he knows how the series will end. And he has given a lot of info to the showrunners so they can still base S6 and S7 off his work even without the last two books. You can definitely have a direction and ideas without writing them down and fleshing them out in a stage by stage process.

That said, I am a writer who relies on outlines big time. Even so, it is not always helpful or even relevant in the end. Whenever I attribute a word count to a section or chapter, I have about a 50 percent success rate. I recently thought a chapter would last about 8000 words and it took 2000, while another was predicted to take 3000 and it was closer to 6000. Those are extreme examples, but outlines are not always some infallible map that easily guides you through the writing process. You can still have writer's block, or think of better directions to take the story in, or realize something doesn't work and need to start all over.

I'm not sure what you're arguing here. I didn't speak in absolutes. I said having an outline helps, nor did I consider an outline an "infallible map," or say GRRM didn't know major points/endings for some his characters. That very broad outline is not what I'm talking about.

[Ser Biscuit]

Speaking of the five years gap, I have a feeling that part of the problem is that Martin's narrative is too dense with regards to the timeline. If we compare with one of the books which, from what I've heard, provided inspiration for Martin, one can see the difference. I am referring to Maurice Druon's The Accursed Kings. For instance, the first four books in the series cover the period from March 1314 until November 1316. That's 2 years and a half and those novels are significantly shorter.

The five years gap maybe wouldn't have worked, but maybe it would have also been better if Martin hadn't felt the need to describe the routines of his main characters on an almost weekly basis. Especially since there is no need for many of the digressions of AFFC and ADWD to take place "on-screen", once the respective characters had already been pointed in the necessary direction.

Oddly enough, Winds presents another opportunity for a bit of a jump, albeit the one in my mind is of six months and not a year(s). That's if GRRM wants to go for it. And this jump shouldn't mess with the story too much.

For to happen GRMM has to put the following arcs in the right place:

- Cersei and Marg's trials have to be over and all the Dornish plus Myrcella would have had to arrive in KL plus Harys Swyft would have to leave to meet with the Bankers in the Free Cities right before the jump. A jump of six months would work for everything in KL as Cersei (if she wins) ramps up the crazy plus it gives the Faith even more time to add to their numbers over that time period. Also Swyft's journey should take months and I'm proposing that he takes his sweet time with a six month journey that ends in Braavos. The next time we see him is in Arya I.

- The Battle of Meereen have had to conclude and Dany cannot be apart of it. If Barristan is injured in the battle that's even better as the six months gives him time to heal, but so long as Dany isn't there a timejump would work since it's going to take her many months to get to Vaes Dothrack. Her first chapter can take place there after the jump. Tyrion shouldn't be affected after the jump as we can pick back up either with him in Meereen helping, or scheming with the Second Sons.

- The battle for Winterfell ends. If Stannis is victorious then a six month jump can happen afterwards as he spends time rebuilding Winterfell, establishing who rules there, gaining allies, and awaiting word from Massey. After six months he's ready to go back to the Wall or South with a new army if he wishes.

- In the standoff between Stoneheart and the BoB Brienne or Jamie needs to get hurt pretty badly and my guess is Brienne since she's already really injured. Their story ends with Jamie taking her back to the Quiet Isle to let the good Brother work his magic on her. Over the six months Brienne heals and so does Sandor, and Jamie decides to stay at her side continuing his left-handed fight training over the jump. The next time GRRM comes back to the story Jamie, Brienne, and Sandor can all be ready to get back into the action.

- Six more months of Bran learning from Bloodraven wouldn't hurt.

- Sansa 1's storyline shouldn't be affected since there isn't a firm time period of when her last chapter in Feast took place. Many months passing by seems natural. Same with Arya 1.

- So long as Davos return back to Stannis shortly after the Battle for Winterfell, then a time jump won't affect things with him.

- Sam's storyline won't be affected by a small jump.

- Nothing from the Ironborn should be affected. If need be the defeat of the final battle with the Redwyne fleet could be saved after the mini jump. All that needs to happen right away is the defeat of Garlan's forces and that can be talked about in the first Sam chapter after the jump.

- Dorne's storylines shouldn't be affected. It could take six months for Areo and company to track down Darkstar. And also after the jump Doran can receive his son's burnt remains since that gives his men time to sail back.

- Everything with Jon's resurrection needs to happen before the jump obviously, but after that it shouldn't affect anything with him. During the jump he could be on some type of vision quest to find out who he really is or something to the affect. Or if GRRM wants to get crazy after Jon wakes up he can travel North to find Bran and the first chapter after the jump is of him arriving there.

- Arianne and Aegon is the problematic one. But so long as she meets him before the time skip it shouldn't be a problem. She could take some months getting to know him and giving her companions time to cause some mischief.

So: Prologue, Theon I, Battle of Ice, Battle of Fire, Davos I (Skagos visit) Asha I or Theon II (battle in Winterfell, Davos arrives with or without Rickon, rulership is decided and rebuilding plans are made), Jamie I (the confrontation with BoB) and II (arrives at Quiet Isle with Brienne, learns of Sandor being alive), Arianne I and II, Griff I (Storm's End falls, Aegon meets Arianne ), Cersei I (Dornish arrive, trials, Swyft departs at end),  Jon I (aftermath, possible destruction of the Watch, Jon's declared dead), Bran I (the saving of Jon, discovers something terrible)

- Six Month time Jump -

Sansa I, Dany I (now in Vaes Dothrock), Sam I, Arya I, Areo I (finds Darkstar at Starfall), Jamie III (he leaves for KL, and Brienne and Sandor leave for the Vale) Jon II, Tyrion III, Cersei II, Theon II or III/Asha I or II, etc etc and the story can continue now well into the year 301. Smaller time jumps would work better than a single large one.

[Crixus]

A spoon of knife and fork: great post. 

There needs to be a balance between show and tell for such a huge saga, especially at this stage. GRRM is the sort of writer who can get absorbed in (and produce some stellar writing around) mundane shit like travel or feasts etc. But at this stage we need to increase the pace, which means not spending tons of time on stuff like Arya/Bran training, Jon's evolution into the LC and so on. In other words, this story is about Westeros and the Others, not Hogwarts for Arya, Bran and Jon. Their evolution into assassin/warg/commander doesn't need to be depicted in such detail because that isn't the end point nor the central focus of the story. 

Other posters have referenced the first 3 books, when people didn't need 1000 pages to get from point A to B, and this means GRRM can do that when he wants to. If he was keen to share Essos and other worldbuilding elements, well, that's what the WOIAF is for, isn't it? Why do we need to have Tyrion take us through it?

(I'm also not fond of 'near meetings' like Tyrion in pit, with Dany there, but no interaction. It reminds me of old Bollywood movies, and not in a good way). 

At this stage, we need to move forward in a way that indicates the story's reaching its climax. POVs need to converge and interact, and also get culled to an extent. 

Unfortunately, this doesn't seem likely. The journey is key to enjoy a story, but so is the ending. If it's all meandering journey with no end in sight, it can get frustrating for writer and reader alike. 

 

[Good Guy Garlan]

We didn't have to see Catelyn travel from Riverrun to the Renly/Stannis in acok to understand what happened (or 100 other examples).  What about the phrase "...Coldhands brought us to Bloodraven..." doesn't work for you?  It can literally be part of a sentence. 

Sounds a lot better than what we got.  Open with her flipping out and assassinating someone, then have the story be about her gradual return to being Arya. I don't see the need for flashback, since she may not really remember much of the training, nor is it all that relavent, other than the skills she has learned, which would quite easily be demonstrated in a show - don't - tell style.  

It makes a lot of sense given he has fuck all in terms of an army.  What's he going to do if he goes south?  Presumably he would be trying to build support in the north. 

It would be quite possible for Jon or Stannis to have let the wildlings in off-page.  Easy to tell in a short diaglogue between Jon and Tormund.  It would be the basis for the growing discontent among Jon's men and setting Jon's assassination up. 

Haha well they've waited for - fucking - ever in the existing books too, so what's a few more years?  

Alternatively open with Jon the wildlings and the NW already fighting them, and failing badly.  Like, ya know, actually progress the plot.

Sam in Oldtown is irrelevant fluff.  Have him returned to the Wall fully trained as a Maester and Jon's right hand man.  If he learned something of importance there, he can tell Jon about it.  

Good question.  I suspect the political situation in the northwould be greatly simplified.  Possibly, the Boltons will not have taken Winterfell and instead Stannis would.  Or the Boltons would be there, but no one will have done anything because usually people don't do anything unless they feel they have a good chance of success. 

It would be nice to have Dany meet Tyrion on page but that hasn't even happened in the existing books so it probably wouldn't happen until after the 5y gap either.  Also sure, why not have him be a drunken mess in Pentos for awhile, at least we don't have to read about it in real time.  

Jon's story works really well with the 5 year gap.  Just have to set the stage that there are some increasing tensions due to the presence of the wildlings, maybe there have been some crimes and the old guard are upset and the others havn't shown themselves so people ahve started to whisper Jon is a liar? 

Why can't Tormund's people come south with the rest, if they do come?

Euron is irrelevant fluff.  

Dorne is irrelevant fluff.  

Cersei was supposed to be a slow decline into paranoia and "madness" ala Aerys.  Instead we got a hamfisted prophecy mess.  I think if there was a 5 year period of her rule to look back on than the changes to her character would have seemed much less ridiculous.  Also, I hate what GRRM did with Cersei in feast - he completely ruined her as a character I think because he felt the need to accelerate this process.  It should never have been told from her PoV either Stick someone of interest there and have them comment on her decline.  See the Jaime chapters in ASOS for what this should have looked like.  

Edit: And who on earth cares about details like Tywin's funeral??  The purpose of that scene in the book was character deverlopment for people like Tommen, Jaime and Cersei. This can be achieved in many other ways.   Nothing of plot importance occurred, as we already knew Tywin was dead.  

We'll never know if we would have had a better book.  Furthermore, I do believe George when he said he tried it but just couldn't get it to flow properly.  Still I don't think it was impossible to have a much streamlined version of the story.  George decided he was interested in telling side-stories about tertiary characters more than advancing the stories of the main characters in the series.  That's OK I guess if that's what he wants to do, but it's definitely not what I personally was interested in reading.  Nor am I now.  

I totally agree, but keeping the gap wouldn't have solved a single thing if Martin didn't drop his "let's include as much detail as I can on the road from A to B" approach. Like, Dany would've spent 5 years ruling Meereen, great, but her story still would've become stagnant if it was written like in Dance.

So I don't think the lack of a gap was the problem with Feast and Dance as much as it was the lack of an editor with enough spine to reign in Martin's self-indulgence.

And something else: while it is true that the needless travelogues played a big part in ruining those 2 books, people should take a closer look at non travelogue storylines like Dany's if they really want to be horrified. I recently read all of her Dance chapters in a row, one after the other, and honest to god I was aghast when I realized I was literally, 100% reading the exact same chapter, over and over. I swear to god, it was the same exact beats every single time: Hizdahr tries to convince Dany to open the pits, Dany's told some bad news about either the Sons of the Harpy or Astapor, Dany pines for Daario, Dany chooses to stay at Meereen over other options. I swear, reading the POVs it's not that obvious, but reading only Dany's is incredibly transparent. How a professional editor let a book with the exact same chapter repeated eight times or whatever see the light of day is beyond me. 

 

 

[DaveSumm]

My worst fears are worse than yours are.  I searched his blog post in vain for any firm confirmation that has he made any progress at all.  He talks alot about what he wanted to do, what he tried to do, what he hoped to do, but very very little about what he actually achieved.

But yes, he had about 200 pages left over from ADWD.  About 100 pages were bumped in 2010, and about another 100 in 2011.

In July 2012, during the book tour, he said he had 200 pages in a "more or less finished state", and another 200 in "a very rough first draft form that is going to require alot of revision".  Almost certainly, all of this is leftover material.

In early to mid 2014 he finally wrapped up his work on the World Book, for which he supposedly had submitted many hundreds of pages.  My suspicion is he had made no significant progress on Winds prior to June 2014.

In June 2014, Anne Groell stated that she had received only 168 pages from George, but knew that at least one other chapter existed.  This appears to refer to the same material George talked about in July 2012.   Nonetheless, she expressed hope of seeing Winds "reasonably soon", which to me implies she anticipated a change in focus from George, now that the World Book was out of the way.

From this point onwards, there are signs that GRRM is putting aside other things to (finally) focus on writing Winds.  For instance, no more HBO scripts; no more World Book.  But with what result?  1.5 years later after Ann Groell's depressing revelation, and his update tells us next to nothing?

Hundreds of pages?  We knew that already.  200+200=400.

Dozens of chapters?  Those 400 pages might amount to about 2 dozen chapters.

Added to and revised a Theon chapter?  Okay.  Is it the one we already know about, or a different one?

I'd be surprised if he had not made some progress.  But he has not exactly confirmed any.  And it seems to me he damns himself with faint praise when he angrily refutes the charge that he has no pages at all.  I was hoping an update would give us slightly more promising news than that.

The intent of the post was to let people know he wouldn't be done in time for Season 6. He said he wouldn't update progress on this book, and so 'hundreds' and 'dozens' were intentionally vague terms. I don't think there's much point trying to gauge exactly how much he has finished, we basically still don't know.

[Crixus]

Still, hundreds doesn't quite have the same ring to it as, say, a thousand. That would have assured us he was close-ish. I tend to lean toward Chilly Polly's assessment that hundreds could mean as few as 500 pages. 

[Mr Fixit]

Yeah, I tend to agree with those who think Martin has less than a thousand pages or else he'd have said as much. "Hundreds" doesn't exactly mean 1000+, I'd think. If so...  ... In 2011/2012 by his own admission he had 200 finished + 200 in draft form. Four years later and he still hasn't reached 1000? Ugh, that's some glacial writing.

[Crixus]

I linked an interview with Ty Franck pages back, who was GRRM's assistant before co-authoring Expanse (?). He implied that GRRM pretty much writes when inspired, instead of having a clear plot line, arc etc. planned. He also says he could never write like that. 

Considering the dense complexity of ASOIAF I find it incredible how GRRM can keep so many details, characters, plot points and history straight if he does indeed write that way. There has to be a broad outline and method to the madness when you're working with such a scale. 

Another author who sold rights to an unfinished series but managed to stay on deadlines is JKR of course. Here's an image of her draft for an HP book:http://www.buzzfeed.com/ailbhemalone/read-jk-rowlings-hand-written-plan-for-harry-potter-and-the 

Again, very different in terms of scope, complexity and so on but it was an epic story in a sense, told over 7 books, and I'd think one would need this sort of planning to ensure everything's as it should be.  

[mormont]

Brief moderator note:

The thread exists to allow people to talk about the news from GRRM's blog. It's now wandered into discussion of the merits of AFFC and ADWD, possible plotlines in TWOW, speculation about how many pages of TWOW may or may not be written (which is, as previously noted, an exercise in taking stabs in the dark), and other subjects that aren't really on-topic.

I'd like to try something a bit different in that I'm not going to close the topic just yet but I am going to ask that those who have already commented (including myself) drop out and leave it to those who have not. If you want to talk further about any of the other topics above, take it elsewhere, please.