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Will Ser Barristan defect to Aegon?


Lord Marghoob

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Let's assume that Ser Barristan survives the impending Battle of Meereen (which many think he won't), and that Dany triumphantly returns to Mereen with an army of Dothraki (or without) to find her delicately forged peace shattered. All of this is likely to take weeks, if not months, which is more than enough time for news of Aegon Targaryen raising his banners above Storms End to arrive at Meereen. Now let's also assume that Aegon and JonCo are successful in convincing certain Storm and Reacher lords (such as Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly, as explained by BryndenbFish) and maybe Dorne as well. 

 

Dany has rejected Meereen and has accepted her "Fire and Blood" identity in her last two chapters in ADWD. That means she will turn to Westeros soon. The news of a potential Targaryen competitor already conquering notable castles and gaining powerful local support, is likely to spur her into taking quick action. The way the entire situation has been set up (and through Tyrion's successful gambit with the young Aegon), I doubt that Dany will see Aegon as Aegon and the Golden Company expect her to (i.e. she'll arrive in Westeros with her unsullied and dragons and join her strength to Aegons happily). It seems extremely likely that she will turn against Aegon (if she doesn't, the entire plot would be extremely un-GRRM). 

 

In this situation, what will Ser Barristan do? We have seen his intense personal sense of shame in failing to protect House Targaryen and then serving Robert Baratheon while Targaryens heirs wandered in Essoss (we don't know that specifically but its an easy assumption). He has the utmost respect for Rhaegar. And most of all, he's not of the sharpest wits to realize that Aegon is a fake even if that is indeed true (here I'm using the analysis by Adam Feldman on his blog the Meereneese Blot, in which Ser Barristan is show to be pretty gullible).  He is Dany's most trusted council member, as Lord Commander of her Kingsguard and now Hand, and the only one from Westeros she can rely on (apart from Tyrion, but we don't know what capacity he'll be in under Dany).

 

The obvious answer would be that he'd advise Dany to join her strength to Aegon's, which I highly doubt Dany would accept. Even if she is inclined to it, there is a strong possibility that Arrianne will use her seduction techniques to convince Aegon to marry her (again, I'm using the analysis on the Meereneese Blot), or that Aegon and JonCo would be driven by desperation to formally join forces with Dorne if it doesn't seem like Dany is about to turn to Westeros anytime soon (perhaps because she hasn't moved or is keeping her journey secret). In either scenario, Dany would be pissed and a Targaryen civil war would ensue. If the assumptions that Dany will turn into a darker character (after realizing that her attempts at peace in Meereen didn't do much good anyway) are true, then she will commit atrocities in Westeros. And so far in the books, Aegon and JonCo aren't shown to be monsters. 

 

Given that in the past Ser Barristan stood aside to watch Arys burn innocents and that for years he served a king he loathed, coupled with his ideals of serving a worthy ruler, would Ser Barristan defect to Aegon, driven by a sense of duty to Rhaegar and Aegon's own moral compass (in contrast to Dany's)? If so, what would the implications be for Aegon's and Dany's campaigns?

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27 minutes ago, The Mountain That Flies said:

Here's the thing about Aegon; regardless of what theory on his parentage is correct, plenty of people in-universe already doubt he is who he says he is. Barristan is overly honorable but is not naive, and is not going to switch sides without firm proof.

If the analysis on the Meereneese Blot is to be believed (and based on the evidence provided, it does seem that way), then Barristan is indeed naive. Also, it hasn't been explained why a lot of the in-universe characters believe Aegon is fake (note that Kevan Lannister, Mace Tyrell, and Doran Martel don't know the conspiracies of Varys and Illyrio, and neither have they connected the dots that Aegon is backed by a group that was created to seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne). Their doubts on Aegons identity seem to stem from the fact that everyone assumed him dead and the confusion around his landing, not based on any hard facts. There may be a chance that Barristan fails to connect any dots and believes that Aegon is Rhaegars true son.

Link to the Meereneese Blot essay: https://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/untangling-the-meereenese-knot-part-i-who-poisoned-the-locusts/

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On 3/18/2016 at 4:29 PM, LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse said:

He won´t have a chance. I think Victarion will kill him soon. Victarion will want to murder Hizdahr and Barristan will oppose him.

Yeah, and if Hizdahr demands a trial by combat, custom would have Barristan defend him since he is still Dany's husband.

Barristan gave his oath of fealty to Dany, and I doubt he would break it for Aegon.

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No, he won't. There is not one shred of textual evidence in any ASOIAF related books or SSM's. 

 

The only ways that he doesn't die in her service are if she dismisses him, for unforeseen reasons, or she becomes madder than Aerys, truly her father's daughter, and he'd have to oppose her, for the greater good.

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I feel like Barry's chapters are for us to see the situation after Dany leaves and how he tries to hold everything together for her.

Quentyn was to turn the Martells against Dany, which is the most likely thing to happen and to release the dragons.

With so many PoV characters converging on Meereen right now, it makes sense to cut loose Barry. He keeps mentioning feeling old so having him die wouldn't be terrible and much more important characters will be by Dany's side soon.

If anything I would consider Dorne siding with Aegon much more significant plot wise than Barry defecting from Dany to Aegon.

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I doubt Barristain would easily switch side to Aegon's. He would still remain Dany's side and for the better to avoid war over succession, he could advise Dany to marry Aegon.

Though like many has said, Barristain will die before he get to hear the news about Aegon and Dany returning with the Dothraki. 

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I don't see any logic in why Barriston would switch sides.  What does (f)Aegon have that would possibly make him switch sides?  He's as loyal as they come, and he chose to lay his sword down in front of Dany...who not only accepted him but has shown great appreciation and respect for him.  Barriston has shown no signs of being a traitor or a turncloak  in his 70 years of life...I'm not sure it would make much sense for him to all of a sudden become one.

The only way he would ever leave Dany is if Dany herself wished it or tossed him saide...which I haven't seen any signs of her wanting to do such.  She puts a lot of trust in him (even more-so then Jorah, who's been with her for longer).  

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