(Spoilers) So - which events from the show will happen in the books and in what way?

[Protagoras]

As a book reader I wonder and would like to discuss how likely people think the show events will be the same and/or similar in the books. I was thinking on starting with the following:

1. Melisandre - will she be as old? (I am pretty certain of a big YES here)

2. Will Ramsay murder Roose? How much do this increases the likelyhood of such an event?

3. Will Rickon fall into Bolton hands and will Shaggydog become killed?

4. Will the events at the wall happen in a similiar fashion?

In general, which spoilers do people think are really spoilers and which are simply BS the show makes up? How much conclusions can you draw from the series in order to guess some of the plotpoints which will happen in WoW. For example Shaggydog. Does this make it likely that this will happen exactly as it did (I have a hard time thinking that the Umbers kills Shaggy) or just that it will be similiar (Shaggy dies, but not in the same way) or no similarity? (Shaggy lives).

[bb1180]

I think there will likely be variation in the circumstances and situations leading up to the end, particularly the further we get away from ADWD,  but I do believe that the main characters will end the story in the same place doing generally the same things. There may be variance in the fates of secondary characters, but I don't think you'll see, for instance, an ending where Jon or Dany dies in one and lives in the other, or where Sansa rules Winterfell in one and not the other.  It'll either happen in both or neither.  

With regards to your four points,  I'm going to say 'yes' in a broad sense,  though in #2 and #3,  Roose and Rickon may meet their end differently in the show than in the books,  but it'll likely still happen one way or another.  

[The Arthur Smith]

The first 2 is possible (with the latter, Ransay referred himself as Lord Bolton). But for the 3rd, probably not. Rickon is at Skagos and Davos was sent to retrieve him. Who knows how Davis is going to persuade the Skaagos lord to return Rickon back.

As for the 4th, same way but different details. Character who aren't in the show currently (like Val) is going to replace Show!Davos' role.

[alienarea]

None. Those books won't be released.

[Protagoras]

3 hours ago, The Arthur Smith said:

The first 2 is possible (with the latter, Ransay referred himself as Lord Bolton). But for the 3rd, probably not. Rickon is at Skagos and Davos was sent to retrieve him. Who knows how Davis is going to persuade the Skaagos lord to return Rickon back.

Oh, I agree that Rickon might not fall into Bolton hands (even if the odds certainly did improve). However, isn´t it likely(ier) that Shaggy dies? Maybe not by Umber hands but, say somewhere on Skagos?

[Tianzi]

Shaggy dies in the show because:

a. omg, a dead dog, what a shock

b. filming direwolves is suffering.

So I'm guessing no.

 

Roose will be killed by the Manderlys, or Stannis' army and his lame bastard won't have every major northern event pinned onto him, and probably will even precede his father in death.

 

Mellie's age will be kept vague.

 

Events at the Wall definitely won't be so rushed. Jon won't leave in a huff, but will give some thought into the situation, though he still may take the opportunity to leave (but with a purpose and maybe discreetly). And he won't be giving his cloak to Edd, because Edd isn't there, oh and isn't the last named guy on the Wall.
 

[Wouter]

In the books, it looks like Stannis will be in play longer (he may well win the battles of ice, unlike his show counterpart). And the motivations of the factions at the Wall may not be entirely the same; in the books the conspirators (which don't include ser Alliser) may act because of the Pink Letter (read: fear of the Boltons, with Stannis supposedly dead).

As for the resurrection, warging may play a role in the books. Other than Bran, the show has been playing down this aspect of the story.

I guess Dany will go to Vaes Dothrak in the books as well, but maybe not as a captive.

[Stag_legion]

I don't see Ramsay killing Roose. The only way I see it happening is in a situation where the Boltons are  defeated and the in the confusion of routing/retreating Ramsay stabs his father in a psychotic rage. But instead of this action giving Ramsay control over the remaining bolton forces ,Roose's guards will kill Ramsay and surrender to Stannis/northern allies. 

 

The show is dragging out the northern campaign just to get a battle of Snows. in the books I think stannis will defeat the boltons in the first half of TWOW and there won't be a battle between Jon Snow and Ramsay.

[Lord_Ravenstone]

1 hour ago, Stag_legion said:

I don't see Ramsay killing Roose. The only way I see it happening is in a situation where the Boltons are  defeated and the in the confusion of routing/retreating Ramsay stabs his father in a psychotic rage. But instead of this action giving Ramsay control over the remaining bolton forces ,Roose's guards will kill Ramsay and surrender to Stannis/northern allies. 

 

The show is dragging out the northern campaign just to get a battle of Snows. in the books I think stannis will defeat the boltons in the first half of TWOW and there won't be a battle between Jon Snow and Ramsay.

This.

[Ser Wun Wun]

I think Jon's resurrection will have more to it than a simple Kiss of Life because of his warging, but we'll see.  And Mel is definitely that old, I think GRRM will confirm as much in Winds.  Ramsay murder Roose after Fat Walda has a boy?  I could definitely see that happening.  Not a stretch for me to imagine it at all.

The Umbers are currently led by Whoresbane and Mors Crowfood.  Crowfood despises Wildlings, so if Stannis really fails and he has to choose between the Boltons or Jon and his Wildlings, I could see him choosing the Boltons.  I have no idea how he'd get his hands on Rickon to hand over though, I think that's a show only invention.  Rickon could still die in Winds though, that wouldn't surprise me.  

It hasn't happened yet, but LF bringing a Vale army to the North will happen in both the books and the show, I feel confident in that.   

 

[Stannis is the man....nis]

Only #1 D&D said George told them about Mel's age so that is confirmed

as for the rest:

No way would book!Ramsay have the balls to kill his dad nor would he get away with it like the show. (I'm calling a GRRM swerve an Lady Dustin kills Roose over making Ramsay his heir/killing her bannermen at the twins) While I think Ramsay is getting killed in the fighting of a Trojan horse job by Stannis and the Manderly

Based off what the show is doing I'm saying Stannis gets rid of the Boltons and their is no "SNOWBALL 2016 GET HYPED" in the books

As for Rickon I think he dies in either the Davos rescue or in the WW fight

As for Jon? I'm starting to get a serious feeling that Mel/Selyse are gonna burn Shireen based off the PL but it brings back Jon by accident

[Protagoras]

12 hours ago, Stag_legion said:

I don't see Ramsay killing Roose. The only way I see it happening is in a situation where the Boltons are  defeated and the in the confusion of routing/retreating Ramsay stabs his father in a psychotic rage. But instead of this action giving Ramsay control over the remaining bolton forces ,Roose's guards will kill Ramsay and surrender to Stannis/northern allies. 

 

The show is dragging out the northern campaign just to get a battle of Snows. in the books I think stannis will defeat the boltons in the first half of TWOW and there won't be a battle between Jon Snow and Ramsay.

Hmm, so why did the show go with Ramsey killing Roose then? Just to get a "battle of snows"? (something they havn´t focused on so far that much this season). Why not a pink letter for example. 

I agree that Stannis will do some real damage on the Boltons before his demise, yet I wonder - what if Ramsey is planning something similiar in the books. The parameters (Walda, the child) are there. 

7 hours ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

As for Rickon I think he dies in either the Davos rescue or in the WW fight

Yeah, the developments in the show doesn´t make it too good for Rickons survivability in the books does it. Now, only Shaggy is dead so far but Rickon does seem to live on loaned time. We need to wait for next episode I guess. 

[Ser Gareth]

I think Rickon will survive in the books and become the next King of the North (I believe at the story end the Seven Kingdom's will become seven separate kingdoms again).  I am not sure about what is going on in the show but I wouldn't be surprised if it's all a ruse.  I don't think that is really Shaggydog's head either.  It's a shaggy dog story, e.g. a made up tale.

[Ser Gareth]

7 hours ago, Stannis is the man....nis said:

Only #1 D&D said George told them about Mel's age so that is confirmed

as for the rest:

No way would book!Ramsay have the balls to kill his dad nor would he get away with it like the show. (I'm calling a GRRM swerve an Lady Dustin kills Roose over making Ramsay his heir/killing her bannermen at the twins) While I think Ramsay is getting killed in the fighting of a Trojan horse job by Stannis and the Manderly

Based off what the show is doing I'm saying Stannis gets rid of the Boltons and their is no "SNOWBALL 2016 GET HYPED" in the books

As for Rickon I think he dies in either the Davos rescue or in the WW fight

As for Jon? I'm starting to get a serious feeling that Mel/Selyse are gonna burn Shireen based off the PL but it brings back Jon by accident

I still think Ghost's death will bring back Jon.

I think like the books Shireen's death will serve no purpose in the end.  Grayscale will have something to do with it too.

[Lord_Ravenstone]

3 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Hmm, so why did the show go with Ramsey killing Roose then? Just to get a "battle of snows"? (something they havn´t focused on so far that much this season). Why not a pink letter for example. 

I agree that Stannis will do some real damage on the Boltons before his demise, yet I wonder - what if Ramsey is planning something similiar in the books. The parameters (Walda, the child) are there. 

The show went with that because they're trying to build Ramsay up as the Big Bad of the northern storyline. It's a reason they had him marry and rape Sansa and capture Rickon to make it more satisfying for when Jon kills him. And I think they're also building to a pink letter.

Buuuut this is all unlikely to happen in the books. Ramsay could kill Roose but it would immediately have all the northern lords turn on Ramsay without question in the books. And the Karstarks are all on Stannis' side now for the Karstark leadership has been eliminated thanks to Jon and Tycho.

Stannis is going to win the Battlw of Winterfell because it seems the narrative needs him to win. Bran is calling for Theon to be sacrificed to the old gods for a reason and we have to see what that is

[Stag_legion]

5 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Hmm, so why did the show go with Ramsey killing Roose then? Just to get a "battle of snows"? (something they havn´t focused on so far that much this season). Why not a pink letter for example. 

I agree that Stannis will do some real damage on the Boltons before his demise, yet I wonder - what if Ramsey is planning something similiar in the books. The parameters (Walda, the child) are there. 

Yeah, the developments in the show doesn´t make it too good for Rickons survivability in the books does it. Now, only Shaggy is dead so far but Rickon does seem to live on loaned time. We need to wait for next episode I guess. 

Ramsay might kill walda and her child but killing Roose is unlikely.

Unlike the show, in the books the main person of interest in the boltons is Roose rather than Ramsay. Ramsay's significance is mainly to Theon's story, while the political struggle for the north is all about Roose vs Stannis and pissed northern lords. GRRM has also shown much more interest in writing about Roose's machinations than glorifying Ramsay. On the show Roose hasn't done anything after the red wedding and its Ramsay doing everything.

[Stannis is the man....nis]

3 hours ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

The show went with that because they're trying to build Ramsay up as the Big Bad of the northern storyline. It's a reason they had him marry and rape Sansa and capture Rickon to make it more satisfying for when Jon kills him. And I think they're also building to a pink letter.

Buuuut this is all unlikely to happen in the books. Ramsay could kill Roose but it would immediately have all the northern lords turn on Ramsay without question in the books. And the Karstarks are all on Stannis' side now for the Karstark leadership has been eliminated thanks to Jon and Tycho.

Stannis is going to win the Battlw of Winterfell because it seems the narrative needs him to win. Bran is calling for Theon to be sacrificed to the old gods for a reason and we have to see what that is

 

1 hour ago, Stag_legion said:

Ramsay might kill walda and her child but killing Roose is unlikely.

Unlike the show, in the books the main person of interest in the boltons is Roose rather than Ramsay. Ramsay's significance is mainly to Theon's story, while the political struggle for the north is all about Roose vs Stannis and pissed northern lords. GRRM has also shown much more interest in writing about Roose's machinations than glorifying Ramsay. On the show Roose hasn't done anything after the red wedding and its Ramsay doing everything.

Plus, D&D have called Ramsay a "badass" in a recent interview so we got from their mouths they have a bias for his character

[Wouter]

4 hours ago, Lord_Ravenstone said:

The show went with that because they're trying to build Ramsay up as the Big Bad of the northern storyline. It's a reason they had him marry and rape Sansa and capture Rickon to make it more satisfying for when Jon kills him. And I think they're also building to a pink letter.

Buuuut this is all unlikely to happen in the books. Ramsay could kill Roose but it would immediately have all the northern lords turn on Ramsay without question in the books. And the Karstarks are all on Stannis' side now for the Karstark leadership has been eliminated thanks to Jon and Tycho.

Stannis is going to win the Battlw of Winterfell because it seems the narrative needs him to win. Bran is calling for Theon to be sacrificed to the old gods for a reason and we have to see what that is

I think that in the books, Bran will intervene somehow to sway Stannis to spare Theon. Much like in the show, Theon will return to the Iron Islands with Asha and probably play a part in overthrowing Euron (who I believe is following Victarion, leaving the Ironborn in the Reach open to defeat with only a glamoured puppet to lead them). It was mentioned too often that an absent Theon could be a pretext for overturning the result of the King's Moot. It would require the Ironborn to be dissatisfied with Euron, but if Euron left them to their own devices while going after the dragons, that just might be the case.

Roose and Ramsay could go either way in the books. Martin has been building the tension between the two though, almost as much as the show has.

[Ser Quork]

On 5/10/2016 at 1:45 PM, Protagoras said:

As a book reader I wonder and would like to discuss how likely people think the show events will be the same and/or similar in the books. I was thinking on starting with the following:

1. Melisandre - will she be as old? (I am pretty certain of a big YES here)

2. Will Ramsay murder Roose? How much do this increases the likelyhood of such an event?

3. Will Rickon fall into Bolton hands and will Shaggydog become killed?

4. Will the events at the wall happen in a similiar fashion?

In general, which spoilers do people think are really spoilers and which are simply BS the show makes up? How much conclusions can you draw from the series in order to guess some of the plotpoints which will happen in WoW. For example Shaggydog. Does this make it likely that this will happen exactly as it did (I have a hard time thinking that the Umbers kills Shaggy) or just that it will be similiar (Shaggy dies, but not in the same way) or no similarity? (Shaggy lives).

1. Yes, Mel is old - we know that from her PoV.
2. I've wondered if it will be Roose killing Ramsay, tbh.
3. No.  I think Rickon being given to Ramsay is a show contortion to send their version of the Pink Letter.  That's not to say I think Rickon & Shaggydog survive.  I just don't know, but I don't believe they'll be near a Bolton if they die.
4. No.  I'm sure Jon will warg Ghost (or what was the point of the Prologue?) and that he will come back a changed man.  I still think Mel/Selyse may sacrifice Shireen because Mel heard the Pink Letter, and it may bring Jon back.
5. I think Dany will go to Vaes Dothrak, but as a conqueror with Drogon who is "the stallion who mounts the world" and then lead the Dothraki to collect her Unsullied.  Westeros will initially see her as the aggressor.
6. I don't believe there'll be a Snowbowl in the books.
7. Bran will be a more powerful greenseer than Bloodraven (I think this is already heavily hinted at in the books) but I still fear he will never leave the cave (but I want him to).

[Newstar]

1. Melisandre is old, but we knew that thanks to her POV.

2. I think Book Stannis and the Boltons will take each other out. TV Stannis seems to have been killed off to clear the way for the Starks going against the Boltons. D&D have said that Shireen dies by burning in the books, although I don't think they have come out and stated 100% that it was done on Stannis' order. If it is done on Stannis' order in the books, I'm guessing things get pretty desperate for him.

3. I think Book Rickon will either die during Davos' attempt to retrieve him or will refuse to return with Davos from wherever he's holed up. Either way, it's not looking good for Book Rickon's status as future Lord of Winterfell.

4. Wall: Depends how long Jon is out, but I could see him noping out of the NW the way TV Jon has.

Generally, I think it's a bit unfair to call TV changes "BS the show makes up." Obviously, there have been some big changes that are not so much book spoilers as plotlines getting shuffled around between characters:

-TV Sansa gets Book Jeyne's plot (being married to Ramsay and escaping with Theon)

-TV Tyrion gets Book Barristan's plot (running Meereen in Dany's absence)

-TV Jon gets Book Stannis' plot (clearing the Boltons out of Winterfell)

-TV Jorah gets Book JonCon's greyscale

...and so on. 

I don't look at these changes as book spoilers, since I doubt Book Jorah is going to get greyscale, or that Book Tyrion is going to wind up governing Meereen. If I had to guess, it seems that the plots were redistributed to more central characters to give them more of a dramatic punch. I'm thinking D&D figured that the audience would be more invested in Jon taking out the Boltons than Stannis, assuming Stannis is doomed in any event (which he likely is in the books), or that the audience would care more about Sansa being brutalized by Ramsay and rescued by Theon than some character who only appeared in the pilot episode.

There are also changes that may be book spoilers, as their omission from the show suggests that they're not critical to the endgame: TV Tysha was never identified to be anything other than a prostitute, Val was left out, Aegon and the Blackfyres were left out, Arianne and most of the Dorne storyline were left out, Sansa's Vale storyline was eliminated, etc. etc.

Finally, though, there seems to be a running list of fan theories on things that will probably be relevant to the overarching plot of ASOIAF which have been proved or disproved on an ongoing basis: Jon comes back to life, Bran is going to leave the cave (Season 6 has been very clear about this), Shireen is going to be sacrificed by Melisandre, Stannis is going to die, R+L=J, and so on. I think those are the real "book spoilers," even if a lot of these big spoilers aren't surprising to hardcore book readers, for whom things like R+L=J have been all but confirmed for a very long time.

Going storyline by storyline in Season 6, though, I think I have a general idea of what's spoilery at this point and what's show-only stuff:

Dany: Anything in Vaes Dothrak is probably spoilery for TWOW. GRRM has said the Dothraki figure pretty heavily in TWOW.

Tyrion: This is a modified rehash of Barristan trying to maintain order in Meereen in ADWD. Only possible spoilery bit is Tyrion's rapport with the dragons.

Jon: Resurrection is a spoiler, Jon fighting the Boltons is a show-only plot where he's taking over Stannis (I suspect), R+L=J is likely going to be revealed soon in the show.

Sansa: Show-only material. Book Sansa is stuck in the Vale and unlikely to be headed north anytime soon. I suspect the Boltons will be out of the picture if/when Book Sansa ever makes it north.

King's Landing: Some possible TWOW material (Margaery's trial, Cersei's trial). TV Margaery and Loras being imprisoned by the Faith is show-only, of course. Cleganebowl rumours are flying fast and furious, but D&D has done show-only fights between characters who don't meet in the books (Brienne versus the real Hound in Season 4).

Iron Islands: Kingsmoot from AFFC, likely with show-only Theon getting thrown in.

Arya: Her storyline is pretty much playing it straight from the books. No big book spoilers yet.

Bran: Bran's actor has promised that Bran gets some "big answers" this season, so I'm thinking this will be pretty spoilery for the books.

Dorne: This will likely be spoilery for the books only in the broadest possible sense, if Book Dorne--helping Aegon--wages war on KL, and the TV Dornish do the same.