Illyrio Mo'Parties

It's not Alys Karstark, either

81 posts in this topic

5 hours ago, DutchArya said:

It's the Gods Eye to the west of the grey girl, which means she is heading South.

Assuming the lake is to the west of the girl, that means she is travelling on its eastern shore -- not necessarily that she has to be heading south.  Heading north, the lake is still to the west of the girl -- on her left-hand side, but still to her west.  Heading south, the lake would still be to the west of the girl -- this time on her right-hand side, but still to her west.

12 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Jon and Sansa will broker marriage between Robert Arryn and Arya to be king and queen, and Arya will refuse. New Jon will not accept defiance and lock her in the maidenvault, she will escape and go on her journey, Deana the Defiant.

LOL.  Methinks not!  It's too out of character for Jon to lock up Arya; or for Jon -- as @TyrionTLannister suggests -- to kill Bran by burning him with dragonfire...

But I always get a chuckle out of reading your speculations, nevertheless!  

2 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

May I put in another possibility? The girl is actually Arya, but she's fleeing from the Dreadford, where she went to kill some Boltons. So the location east of Long Lake is correct. Since Ramsay basically is her husband, in a similarly dubious way as Asha is married to fat old Lord whathisname, she would actually be fleeing from a marriage (regardless of whether she just killed her darling husband or not). 

Oh, I like that.  Arya's way of avoiding an unwanted marriage -- 'stick them with the pointy end,  before they can stick you ;)...'

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Posted (edited)

30 minutes ago, DutchArya said:

Mel isn't correct because of her continued failure of objectivity has her believing Alys is the grey girl who came North. Based on false assumptions leading to the wrong girl. This further highlights Mel's weakness (even when she is close to being right) applying her subjective slant in order to manipulate someone (Jon) she is trying to win over. Mel hasn't changed and she has been fooled again. The obvious red herring in Alys has the readers fooled as well. 

What we're lacking is context to make sense of the scene. Why is Arya on a weak dying horse? Does that hint to the distance she has travelled or is the horse wounded? What is she doing alone and who is she running from? Mel assumes she is "Arya Stark who is married to Ramsay Bolton" so she naturally adds her conjecture that she is "running from a marriage" and riding North for Jon's protection. Could the real Arya be running away from an unwanted marriage like her fated aunt Lyanna? Or in the manner suggested by @chrisdaw or @Manderly's Rat Cook. Or something less obvious and more symbolic as @ravenous readerrelated her broken "marriage" to the Faceless Men order. 

It's fun speculate!

This is just so blatant ;)

Arya’s description of the surrounding area of the Gods Eye Lake:

 

Having Arya ride past a body of water isn't a particularly interesting thing to foreshadow. Yes we lack context but compared to other events that have received foreshadowing this lacks significant importance. I do get your point, the original point Mo'Parties was making. I think it's interesting but I'm not really convinced by any of the theories. Will Arya leave the faceless men? Yeah she probably will, but I don't see that as a twist and I certainly wouldn't consider this foreshadowing for that event. Perhaps something will come of this, I certainly won't rule it out, just saying I'm not convinced.

Edited by Makk

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11 minutes ago, Makk said:

Having Arya ride past a body of water isn't a particularly interesting thing to foreshadow. Yes we lack context but compared to other events that have received foreshadowing this lacks significant importance. I do get your point, the original point Mo'Parties was making. I think it's interesting but I'm not really convinced by any of the theories. Will Arya leave the faceless men? Yeah she probably will, but I don't see that as a twist and I certainly wouldn't consider this foreshadowing for that event. Perhaps something will come of this, I certainly won't rule it out, just saying I'm not convinced.

The significance is that it foreshadows her move east and back west, long before either happen. It makes us ask what she's going to do back in Westeros, particularly on the west side, which is how she'd get to the Riverlands, as well as where Nymeria roams.

And I just realized that if Arya goes back to the Twins for vengeance, she has a legitimate grievance: the Frays broke off her marriage arrangement, as well. 

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, Makk said:

Having Arya ride past a body of water isn't a particularly interesting thing to foreshadow. Yes we lack context but compared to other events that have received foreshadowing this lacks significant importance. I do get your point, the original point Mo'Parties was making. I think it's interesting but I'm not really convinced by any of the theories. Will Arya leave the faceless men? Yeah she probably will, but I don't see that as a twist and I certainly wouldn't consider this foreshadowing for that event. Perhaps something will come of this, I certainly won't rule it out, just saying I'm not convinced.

It's not just a body of water. Plus, if you don't know the context, how can you judge its importance? I included the line about the Gods Eye lake calling to Arya and we know Arya has seen the Isle of Faces at the center of the lake. What if she is out there for a reason linked to that? 

It's foreshadowing a future journey Arya makes. What preceded the need for her to be out there - was important enough to show up in Mel's vision. Is she really escaping a marriage? As far as Westeros is concerned, Arya is married to Ramsay. Does she have some involvement in his demise and thus inadvertently helping Jon take Winterfell? Her dying horse that Mel also describes may indicate the effects of a long journey. Arya usually takes horses that are strong. 

Back in Braavos, Arya is likely to meet Jeyne Poole - her long suffering imposter. Perhaps Jeyne prays for a name to the Many-Faced God and Arya overhears it. Jeyne pays with her life and asks for the gift of mercy or dedicates her life in service to the HoBW. Arya's break with the FM could see her carry Jeyne's prayer with her all the way back to Westeros. 

 

It's the readers job to speculate and it's more fun that way.  

Edited by DutchArya

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Posted (edited)

5 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

Assuming the lake is to the west of the girl, that means she is travelling on its eastern shore -- not necessarily that she has to be heading south.  Heading north, the lake is still to the west of the girl -- on her left-hand side, but still to her west.  Heading south, the lake would still be to the west of the girl -- this time on her right-hand side, but still to her west.

Good point! But would Arya take the risk of travelling North on the dangerous King's Road? If the Lake is to her west and she is heading North, that would put her on the King's Road. Mel said the girl is avoiding villages and Mance points out her clever diversion tactics to conceal her whereabouts. These are lessons Arya was taught: Everything from learning to read where the moss grows, to the lessons Yoren, The Hound and others has relayed and Arya has observed on her own. 

But then again, the dying horse may indicate it's been wounded in a pursuit - arrows maybe? Perhaps Arya didn't have the time to plan out an escape and consider her route heading North and ended up on the Gods Eye's eastern shore and the dangerous King's Road. 

Edited by DutchArya

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Posted (edited)

10 hours ago, ravenous reader said:

 

Oh, I like that.  Arya's way of avoiding an unwanted marriage -- 'stick them with the pointy end,  before they can stick you ;)...'

Yeah I thought it's a fun possibility too.

 

Some other thought that came up, is that this may have been a vision of the past, and the girl is neither Arya or Alys, but Lyanna, fleeing from her marriage to Robert.

Note that the tourney of Harrenhal took place in the year of the false spring, so after this year it would've been winter again. She's fleeing south, West of the God's eye toward Rhaegar. She'd been in that area before, so she would kinda know the way around there, and like Arya she was an adventurous girl who loved horseriding, and would've known how to keep people off her track.

In a symbolic way, she would also be fleeing toward Jon Snow, since his birth would be the result of her flight. So Jon was her destiny at this point, and also her final destination, since his birth resulted in her death. 

 

Edit: this would also explain why she turned to ashes, being "consumed" by the Targaryen fire, resulting in her death.

Edited by Manderly's Rat Cook

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Posted (edited)

Eh, I'll be the boring one here and suggest that simply, most likely, Martin's orientation skills suck. That, or he didn't bother to really look at the map.

Edited by ShadowCat Rivers
(it makes no sense narratively not to be Alys)

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33 minutes ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Eh, I'll be the boring one here and suggest that simply, most likely, Martin's orientation skills suck. That, or he didn't bother to really look at the map.

Seems more like an excuse to ignore the implications of Alys not being the girl in the vision. 

And how would it not make narrative sense? Especially when the entire thing is clouded in conjecture that Mel admits she added. So we really don't know the context of what is happening to this girl and why she is fleeing in the manner described. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DutchArya said:

Seems more like an excuse to ignore the implications of Alys not being the girl in the vision. 

Or, alternatively, a recognition that there is such a thing as "over-analyzing".

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2 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Or, alternatively, a recognition that there is such a thing as "over-analyzing".

Or purposely ignoring the obvious because *insert reason*. 

When there are other viable conclusions - that these people don't even bother to argue against - falling back on "George made a mistake" sounds like a weak excuse.  

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On 3/17/2017 at 10:47 PM, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go on and on forever."

"Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?"

It is not Alys Karstark, nor is it Long Lake.  Alys Karstark would not be anywhere near Long Lake if she escaped and went straight to the Wall. to reach the Long Lake she would need to go due West and cross the Last River.  Why do that?

In addition, the vision is not of Long Lake.  The lake must be further South and perhaps in the future.  If you recall, When Stannis arrives at the Crofters Village, which is south of Long Lake, his men ice fish on the frozen lake. even with Long Lake being much bigger  the fact that it is north of Winterfell and there has been extreme cold for a while, the lake would not have a thin coat of ice just forming on it, it would have thicker ice near the shores.

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4 hours ago, DutchArya said:

Seems more like an excuse to ignore the implications of Alys not being the girl in the vision. 

And how would it not make narrative sense? Especially when the entire thing is clouded in conjecture that Mel admits she added. So we really don't know the context of what is happening to this girl and why she is fleeing in the manner described. 

Those implications are the very reason why it doesn't make narrative sense.

That particular storyline in ADWD is not about Alys or any other girl, and it's not even about Arya herself; it's about the effect it all has on Jon Snow, who's the central character of the storyline. And it reached its climax at the end with his death, so any additional complication (aside from the ones that are already built up and pending, like the clusterfuck that's bound to happen at the Wall as the aftermath of the mutiny would be one deviation too much and with no true payoff. That's my opinion.

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1 hour ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Those implications are the very reason why it doesn't make narrative sense.

That particular storyline in ADWD is not about Alys or any other girl, and it's not even about Arya herself; it's about the effect it all has on Jon Snow, who's the central character of the storyline. And it reached its climax at the end with his death, so any additional complication (aside from the ones that are already built up and pending, like the clusterfuck that's bound to happen at the Wall as the aftermath of the mutiny would be one deviation too much and with no true payoff. That's my opinion.

I'd say this is exactly why it can be Arya in the vision. It's not like the information presented in one POV has to be solely relevant to those characters. Jon has already been affected by the vision and Alys's appearance, but the rest of the information is possibly about Arya, whether or not it has a direct impact on Jon. 

Mel's vision is a double shot of plot information with a double twist that covers two  long separated two POVs. It's a clever and efficient conveyance of information that has both misdirection and irony. 

And if we dig into the symbolic/mythical aspect of the story, it brings a lot of significance to an otherwise pretty tedious passage (which I quoted earlier) that also foreshadows Arya's path East and back west as well as her role as an archetype character.

Edited by cgrav

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11 hours ago, cgrav said:

I'd say this is exactly why it can be Arya in the vision. It's not like the information presented in one POV has to be solely relevant to those characters. Jon has already been affected by the vision and Alys's appearance, but the rest of the information is possibly about Arya, whether or not it has a direct impact on Jon. 

...

Not like this though.

Remember, when in Catelyn's POV we got info about Jon Arryn having arranged his son to be fostered with Stannis, revealing a motive and thus pointing to Lysa as an alternative suspect for his murderer? (In Cat's discussion with Walder Frey, of all people). There, the author deliberately drew attention to the passed info, using a dialogue of the style "Are you sure you're sure? -I'm fucking sure, what of it". That's entirely different to using some (overly) vague reference to a geographic discrepancy, as suggested in this thread, one that no character seems to ever question, only us clever readers, which, if true, would create bigger and way more noticeable discrepancy in the timeline. (I don't intend to get into Winds of Winter released content here, but everyone who has read Mercy will know of the timeline problem.)

 

Arya has her own story, and her story requires her to deal with a lot of stuff before getting anywhere close to Jon. As she's a main character, showing all that in a short passing note and fast track her into the northern storyline after a couple of chapters, simply won't do.

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I think it is Lyanna Stark.  Jeyne never made it to a lake of that size, Arya doesn't fit because the lake is starting to freeze, and Alys would have had to nearly double the length of her route to fit.

The wording Martin uses while Arya and Gendry are traveling along the Gods Eye is the same as used by Mel to Mance.

And, even as Mel watched, the grey girl blew away. 

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18 hours ago, DutchArya said:

Or purposely ignoring the obvious because *insert reason*. 

When there are other viable conclusions - that these people don't even bother to argue against - falling back on "George made a mistake" sounds like a weak excuse.  

Remember the piegate? During the harvest feast at Winterfell, back in ACOK, there was half a line devoted to a venison pie they served. But, in TWOW...

Spoiler

Crowfood Umber interrogates Jeyne Poole, and mentions being served not venison pie, but steak and kidney pie!!1!

Which, according to Preston Jacobs (or at least one of his believers), is a huge clue of profound meaning. The argument is, as usual, insane, and partially based on an assumption that there's no possibility of the author doing a mistake in something as profound and crucial, as two pies five books apart.

If "these people don't even bother to argue against", then it's because, at least for this one of "these people" (thank you for the charming phrase), this argument vividly reminds him of the piegate.

There is such thing as over-analyzing.

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18 hours ago, Chris Mormont said:

<snip>

In addition, the vision is not of Long Lake.  The lake must be further South and perhaps in the future.  If you recall, When Stannis arrives at the Crofters Village, which is south of Long Lake, his men ice fish on the frozen lake. even with Long Lake being much bigger  the fact that it is north of Winterfell and there has been extreme cold for a while, the lake would not have a thin coat of ice just forming on it, it would have thicker ice near the shores.

This is pretty convincing. There is still a bit of room for doubt, from the fact that it was Mance who matched the description to Long Lake - and Mance is an intelligent man, and well-travelled, and a Northerner - so he should have a good idea of the changing seasons and at what point the lake would freeze over. More idea than we do. Anyway, water already at the point of freezing could rapidly become ice when the weather takes a turn for the worse.

 

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1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Remember the piegate? During the harvest feast at Winterfell, back in ACOK, there was half a line devoted to a venison pie they served. But, in TWOW...

  Reveal hidden contents

Crowfood Umber interrogates Jeyne Poole, and mentions being served not venison pie, but steak and kidney pie!!1!

Which, according to Preston Jacobs (or at least one of his believers), is a huge clue of profound meaning. The argument is, as usual, insane, and partially based on an assumption that there's no possibility of the author doing a mistake in something as profound and crucial, as two pies five books apart.

If "these people don't even bother to argue against", then it's because, at least for this one of "these people" (thank you for the charming phrase), this argument vividly reminds him of the piegate.

There is such thing as over-analyzing.

I haven't seen any over-analyzing in this thread, but I'm always happy to fill in a gap - and anyone who doesn't like the pie, doesn't have to eat it.

Grey of course, means morally grey. This is no bad thing in a time when anybody might face a tragic moral dilemma. It all depends on how dark you go.

Blue is an ill-omened colour, generally. People who wear blue usually find death and disaster pretty close. So, endless blue with ice on it could point to a very long period of mortal danger for our grey girl.

Moving up a gear, it's been suggested that rivers and streams represent the flow of history, and thus, by staying away from the course of major events (the game of thrones) and sticking to the backwaters, the girl escapes the hunters.

The horse can be fun too. Where a horse has a specific description, I ask if it's the reflection of the rider - it usually is (think Dany/Silver, Bran/Dancer, Brienne/the homely yet classy mare etc, etc, etc). The name fits, the appearance fits, the temperament fits.

So a dying horse is not good, but not final either - just that the girl is approaching a crisis of spiritual rebirth, like so many others. Fly or die, grey girl.

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14 hours ago, King Ned Stark said:

I think it is Lyanna Stark.  Jeyne never made it to a lake of that size, Arya doesn't fit because the lake is starting to freeze, and Alys would have had to nearly double the length of her route to fit.

The wording Martin uses while Arya and Gendry are traveling along the Gods Eye is the same as used by Mel to Mance.

And, even as Mel watched, the grey girl blew away. 

 

@King Ned Stark I don't hate that at all. It's better than "it's Arya".

 

 

13 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Remember the piegate? During the harvest feast at Winterfell, back in ACOK, there was half a line devoted to a venison pie they served. But, in TWOW...

  Hide contents

Crowfood Umber interrogates Jeyne Poole, and mentions being served not venison pie, but steak and kidney pie!!1!

Which, according to Preston Jacobs (or at least one of his believers), is a huge clue of profound meaning. The argument is, as usual, insane, and partially based on an assumption that there's no possibility of the author doing a mistake in something as profound and crucial, as two pies five books apart.

I don't watch all his stuff, as I think his reasoning per se is sometimes faulty, whereas he's great at picking up on details like this and my own very, very strong bias is that shit like this ISN'T a mistake and that little things matter, so I respectfully ask: what video is this in and/or in brief what's the consequence he sees? Cheers.

 

12 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Grey of course, means morally grey. This is no bad thing in a time when anybody might face a tragic moral dilemma. It all depends on how dark you go.

As my earlier post points out and no one sees fit to address, she's not just "grey", she's "grey as ash". Not saying grey isn't important and the verbiage isn't overdetermined, but the fact that you get a stark banner on an "grey ash" standard seems a bit thick, especialy when the "red herring" can be "scratched" to get a Stark (per Roose).

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On 19/03/2017 at 1:23 AM, M_Tootles said:

Wanted to expand on why I think it's Shireen. We're given really only one piece of descriptive information about the girl, but it's vivid and specific:

Ash grey yields only 23 hits in a search, and the basically break down into two categories:

First, one reference to House Stark, which implies it's Arya:

 

Everything else is about the effects of fire:

 

After Winterfell burns:

 

 

 

 

Post-fire Winterfell:

 

 

This is a very clear pattern. Textually we should be looking for fire. I haven't seen the show, but my understanding is that Shireen burns. The girl on the horse is still alive, then gradually blows away, as if she is burned. And Shireen's greyscaled appearance makes up the difference:

 

That's pretty damn close.Funny wordplay possibly foreshadowing that she'll be burned in the books here:

 

Having done this, though, I was immediately struck by the obvious tragic, ironic, hence dramatically powerful answer: the "girl" is Melisandre, paying off the fact that her POV involves her seeing herself as a girl, Melony. She sees herself at the end of a tragic chain of events she herself helps trigger. She's a priestess of R'hllor. Every single reference to gray ash in the books save the one reference to House Stark is to fire and the destruction it wreaks. That's her bread and butter.

I can't disagree - the vision allows these interpretations. I'm beginning to think all visions like this are a composite - perhaps there is a central meaning, but also many fragments linked in.

Ash has got to be important, given the whole story is the song of ice and fire. Ash foreshadows snow, snow foreshadows ash; they are an inverse pair - that's pretty explicit.

Several characters are marked out by ash (I think) - at the moment I can only remember Asha, and Sandor in his soot grey armour. Are they warriors in the army of fire, or are they its victims? Either way, fire consumes, so probably yes, even Melisandre will get burnt out eventually.

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